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The Sea Voyager Monthly a Ship in Harbour Is Safe, but That Is Not What Ships Are Made for – J.A

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The Sea Voyager Monthly a Ship in Harbour Is Safe, but That Is Not What Ships Are Made for – J.A China / Hong Kong Market Focus The Sea Voyager Monthly A ship in harbour is safe, but that is not what ships are made for – J.A. Shedd Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report DBS Group Research . Equity 8 Jan 2018 H-share reform kicks off HSI : 30,736 CSRC kicks off share reform. In our last monthly report, “The ANALYST two reforms to look at”, we stated that it is very likely that Ivan LI CFA, +852 2971 1930 [email protected] regulatory bodies may launch a reform in 1Q18, to allow share capital of H-share listed companies to become freely tradable. It didn’t take long: China Securities Regulatory Commissions Performance of key indices (CSRC) made an announcement just before year end. As of % change Positive to the market in long term. Total value of domestic Indices 1/4/2018 1 week 1 month QTD YTD HS I 30736 2.9 6.5 2.7 2.7 shares involved would be around HK$2,500bn – or around 7% HSCEI 12204 4.5 6.3 4.2 4.2 of the HKEX’s main board market, but many of the domestic Dow Jones 25075 1.2 3.7 1.4 1.4 shares are held by the government or related agencies, and S &P 2724 1.5 3.6 1.9 1.9 those shares may not go into the market at all. Existing Nasdaq 7078 2.0 4.7 2.5 2.5 Japan 23506 3.6 4.8 4.2 4.2 shareholders can only cut their stake in domestic shares, and S hanghai 3386 3.1 2.8 2.7 2.7 they are not allowed to increase their stake. There will be short S henzhen 1941 3.1 4.2 2.4 2.4 term price pressure for the companies involved once their Taiwan 10849 3.0 3.0 2.2 2.2 Korea 2466 2.5 (0.5) 1.2 1.2 identities are known. In the longer term, there are some India 33970 0.1 3.9 0.1 0.1 benefits. HKEX (388 HK) will be the biggest winner, while S ingapore 3501 2.8 1.7 2.7 2.7 Chinese brokers like CITIC Securities (6030 HK) and Haitong Malaysia 1803 2.0 5.2 1.0 1.0 Thailand 1791 2.2 5.5 2.2 2.2 Securities (6837 HK) may also benefit. Indones ia 6292 (0.3) 5.0 (0.9) (0.9) UK 7696 1.0 5.0 0.1 0.1 Several SOEs may join the pilot program. We believe that the F rance 5414 0.8 0.7 1.9 1.9 Germany 13168 0.7 0.9 1.9 1.9 pilot program will include the biggest SOEs like Postal Saving B razil 78647 3.9 8.4 2.9 2.9 Bank (1658 HK), Sinopharm (1099 HK), and PICC Group (1339 Russia 2198 4.3 4.0 4.2 4.2 HK). China Telecom (728 HK) may join as well. Media reports Source: Thomson Reuters, DBS Vickers, Bloomberg Finance L.P. have also named DongFeng (489 HK), CGN Power (1816 HK), Zhong An Online (6060 HK), and Legend Holdings (3396 HK) . Recommendation & valuation Good signs in new year. The Hong Kong market exhibited several good signs in the first week of trading. HSCEI rose by Clos ing FY17F Tgt 4.2% YTD, the best among global major markets. Market Ticker price PBV PER yield ROE Price turnover was also strong. Daily average net buy of South (HK$) (X) (X) ( %) ( %) (HK$) Bound Trading reached HK$3.1bn, higher than any earlier Agricultural Bank of China 1288.HK 3.8 0.9 5.8 5.3 22.8 4.3 months. We also note that risk appetite returned, HIBOR, Bank of China HK 2388.HK 39.6 1.8 13.9 3.6 16.7 50.2 China Res ources Cement 1313.HK 5.5 1.4 11.9 4.2 24.1 6.1 SHIBOR and VIX all fell. Lee & Man Paper 2314.HK 9.0 2.5 8.8 4.0 5.3 11.0 CR Phoenix Healthcare 1515.HK 10.4 2.2 23.6 1.3 13.7 11.8 We saw analysts revising up their earnings estimates. In Swire Properties 1972.HK 25.8 0.6 19.5 2.9 11.4 30.6 December, the 2018/2019 EPS estimates for the HSI CRRC Corp 1766.HK 8.7 2.0 17.3 3.1 3.7 8.4 constituents were revised up by 2.2/4.6% versus 1.0/1.3% in Tencent 700.HK 431.8 19.9 52.5 0.2 9.4 512.0 Huaneng Pow er Intl Inc. (1) 902.HK 5.0 0.8 28.2 1.9 3.8 6.2 November. This helped in pushing down the HSI valuations, HKEX (1) 388.HK 254.6 9.2 43.1 1.7 21.7 280.0 thus the fair value of HSI could be revised up higher. (1) consensus estimates Source: Thomson Reuters, DBS Vickers, Bloomberg Finance L.P. ed- JS sa- CS / AH Market Focus The Sea Voyager Monthly CSRC kicks off H-share reform Expect baby steps, and CSRC may halt the program if anything goes wrong. CSRC stated that no more than 3 companies will be allowed to join the pilot program. The whole process should In our last monthly report, “The two reforms to look at”, we take 3-5 years. stated that it is very likely that regulatory bodies may launch a reform in 1Q18, to allow share capital of H-share listed Will all domestic shares be sold? companies to become freely tradable. It didn’t take long: China Securities Regulatory Commissions (CSRC) made an Probably not. Many of the domestic shares are held by the announcement just before year end. We will discuss the details government or related agencies, and those shares may not go via Q&A format: into the market at all. For example, CCB (939 HK)’s share capital is 100% freely tradable, since its H-share IPO in 2005, What are domestic shares? And why are they not freely but 59% of shares is held by Central Huijin, and those shares tradable? are never traded. On the other hand, non-government minority stakes held by SOEs in different industries (from the company H-share companies are PRC incorporated companies, listed on involved) are likely to be sold. HKEX. Historically, many pre-IPO shareholders of these companies are SOEs; they acquired the stakes for non-financial Is the reform good or bad to the market as a whole? reasons at the very beginning. Hence, it is believed that it may be unfair if they can cash in their shares. There are also Slightly negative or neural in short term, slightly positive in the concerns that if these shares are freely tradable, a large long term. According to CSRC, during the pilot program and number of shares will flow into market, and drag down share until further notice, existing shareholders can only cut their prices. As a result, a large part of the share capital of H-share stake in domestic shares, they are not allowed to increase their listed companies is held as “domestic shares”. They are not stake. There will be short term price pressure for the tradable on HKEX, unless regulatory bodies allow the companies involved once their identities are known. “conversion” (into normal shares). Otherwise, those stakes were only transacted via OTC channels, which lacked market In the longer term, there are some benefits: 1) Market cap and depth, and the selling price was usually at a deep discount to daily turnover of the Hong Kong market will increase, 2) More market price. China companies may opt to list as H-shares, as the shareholders have a way to cash-out (rather than selling Why is CSRC suddenly allowing those shares to be freely cheaply in OTC markets), 3) Once the free-float portion of the tradable? H-share companies increase, their weights in the international stock indices will rise as well. Regulators had long intended to launch this reform. They probably feel comfortable now, as the Stock Connect Program Who will be the biggest winner? is running smoothly, and the market depth of HK market has expanded massively. HKEX (388 HK) for sure, from rising market turnover and market cap, as well as more China companies may consider What is the amount of shares involved? listing as H-shares. Chinese brokers like CITIC Securities (6030 HK) and Haitong Securities (6837 HK) may also benefit from There are currently 225 H-share companies. Among these, 98 rising market turnover, as well as primary and secondary capital are also listed as A-shares (in Shanghai or Shenzhen). We do market activities. not believe the potential reform will include these A-H dually- listed companies – due to the huge divergence of A-H share Has CSRC provided any hints on which companies will qualify prices. For the remaining 127 companies, the total value of for the pilot program? domestic shares would be around HK$2,500bn – or around 7% of the HKEX’s main board market cap (of HK$34,600bn). Almost none. The only concrete criterion is that the company must have a market cap of no less than HK$1bn. CSRC did What is the timeline? state several other criteria (“falls into the categories of innovative, green China, share economy”, “match the State’s development policies and directions”, “severing the real Page 2 Market Focus The Sea Voyager Monthly economy”, “supporting Belt and Road initiative”,” protect Some best performing stocks YTD (%) shareholders and uphold corporate governance”), but these YTD are highly arbitrary.
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