股
票
研
究 Company Report: Longfor Properties (00960 HK) Van Liu 刘斐凡 Equity Research Equity 公司报告：龙湖地产 (00960 HK) +86 755 23976672 [email protected]
28 March 2017
Benign Prospective Fundamentals with Strong Contracted Sales, Reiterate "Buy" 强劲合约销售下的良好基本面展望，重申“买入” 公 司 2016 underlying net profit missed our expectation. Top line increased by Rating: Buy 15.6% YoY to RMB54,799 mn. Underlying net profit increased 7.0% YoY to Maintained 报 RMB8,169 mn. 评级： 买入 (维持) 告 The Company is expected to have sustainable revenue growth with Company Report Company
stable margins. Contracted sales are likely to experience fast growth despite 目标价 policy tightening. Rental income is expected to grow fast. In addition, a quality 6-18m TP : HK$15.07 Revised from 原目标价: HK$13.22 land bank, appropriate unit land cost (27.6% of ASP in 2016) and low funding costs could result in stable margins. 股价： HK$13.120 Share price
The Company is expected to maintain a healthy financial position. We estimate net gearing ratios to gradually decline in 2017-2019 and to maintain Stock performance below 60.0%. 股价表现
We think that Longfor deserves a low NAV discount. We revise up our target price from HK$13.22 to HK$15.07, representing a 24% discount to its 2017E
证 NAV, 7.0x 2017 underlying PER and 1.1x 2017 PBR. Therefore, we reiterate "Buy". Risk: lower-than-expected contracted sales and absent rental income 券 growth. 研
究 2016 年核心净利低于预期。总收入同比增长 15.6%到人民币 54,799 百万元。核心净利同
比上升 7.0%到人民币 8,169 百万元。 报
公司预计获得在稳定利润率下的可持续收入增长。尽管政策收紧但合约销售很有可能快速 告 增长。租金收入将快速增长。另外，有质量的土储，合适的单位土地成本（2016 年销售单
Equity Research Report Research Equity 价的 27.6%）以及低的财务成本能导致稳定的利润率。
公司能够维持一个健康的财务状况。我们预测净资产负债率在 2017-2019 年逐渐降低并维 Change in Share Price 1 M 3 M 1 Y 股价变动 1 个月 3 个月 1 年 持在 60.0%以下。
Abs. % 绝对变动 % 5.6 36.2 25.0 我们认为龙湖地产应适用一个较低的 NAV 折让。我们将目标价从 13.22 港元上调至 15.07 Rel. % to HS index 相对恒指变动 4.5 24.1 6.0 港元，相当于较其 年 有 折让， 倍 年核心市盈率和 倍 年 %
2017 NAV 24% 7.0 2017 1.1 2017 房 Avg. share price(HK$) 市净率。我们重申“买入”。风险：低于预期的合约销售和强劲的租金收入无法实现。 平均股价（港元） 10.1 10.6 10.6 地 Source: Bloomberg, Guotai Junan International. 产
行
业 SectorProperty
Year End Turnover Net Profit EPS EPS PER BPS PBR DPS Yield ROE 年结 收入 股东净利 每股净利 每股净利变动 市盈率 每股净资产 市净率 每股股息 股息率 净资产收益率 12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) (△%) (x) (RMB) (x) (RMB) (%) (%) 2015A 47,423 7,633 1.302 3.3 8.4 9.402 1.2 0.357 3.2 17.5 HK) 2016A 54,799 8,169 1.399 7.5 8.3 10.578 1.1 0.468 4.0 15.7 龙 2017F 72,714 11,194 1.914 36.8 6.1 12.069 1.0 0.641 5.5 18.9 0960 2018F 82,486 12,303 2.104 9.9 5.6 13.720 0.9 0.703 6.0 18.2
(0 湖 2019F 88,465 13,927 2.548 21.1 4.6 16.699 0.7 0.859 7.4 18.3
地 Shares in issue (m) 总股数 (m) 5,841.8 Major shareholder 大股东 Charm Talent Int. Ltd. 44.3% 产 Market cap. (HK$ m) 市值 (HK$ m) 76,678.9 Free float (%) 自由流通比率 (%) 27.5 3 month average vol. 3 个月平均成交股数 (‘000) 6,301.3 FY17 Net gearing (%) FY17 净负债/股东资金 (%) 59.2 52 Weeks high/low (HK$) 52 周高/低 14.080 / 9.500 FY17 Est. NAV (HK$) FY17 每股估值（港元） 19.84
Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International.
Longfor Properties Longfor See the last page for disclaimer Page 1 of 10 %. 29.1%. to strong contracted sales growth . paid, profit net increased YoY to RMB to YoY lower increase in commodity commodity in increase curb investment demand and delay rigid demand, thus cooling the property market. With high ASP mainly involved an increase in minimum down payment second-hand house market, triggered the tier Se 9.7 underlying2016 net profit Targeted policies will be maintained to pr NBS, Source: Figure downside momentum. inventories, growth investment in and land area sold rebounded in Jan. Housing sales growth continued to slow down, but investment growth rebounded result, the government's level of tolerance CRIC,to the stocks
Source: Source: 2011 Figure e 10,000 12,000 14,000 -1, tier % YoYto
2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 12 16 20 24 28 0 4 8 th -tier cities with high stock levels will be under apolicy easing environment. - e
0 Jan. 2017 CRIC, CRIC, las Jan - 11 1 Net profit margin declined Months 3 :
Apr - 11 t
-2 and select tier :
Cumulative House Sales Amount in China pag Guotai Junan Junan Guotai Jul - 11 Stocks 658 Guotai Junan Junan Guotai RMB
e Oct - 11 fo Amount Sold YTD YoY bn) (RMB (LHS) Houses of Residential Commodity of Sold Amount Houses bn) (LHS)(RMB (RHS) Houses Commodity of Sold Amount Jan - 12 (RHS) Houses Residential of YoY YTD Sold Amount mn r
18, Tier Apr - 12 disclaimer -to -to ,
- Jul - 12 1 Cities also 940 - - International
Oct - 12 Sales Ratios by CityTier During Jan. sales ratio decreased to 8.7 months in Feb. 2017, which means International
Jan - 13 house sales continued to decrease compared to that during Jan.
m miss 1.8
Apr - 13 3 cities, policy tightening policy -3 cities, n.
missed Jul - 13 %
Tier ing Oct - 13
. YoY to RMB
- . 2 Cities
Jan - 14 our expectation riding on lower 1.2
Gross profit amounted to RMB Apr - 14
our expectation. Jul - 14 ppts ppts Oct - 14 Jan - 15 Tier YoY YoY
Apr - 15 recent to to omote the steady and sound development of the property sector 9,153 - 3 Cities Jul - 15 soaring to to Oct - 15 %. 14.9%.
Jan - 16 m round of policy tightening
Apr - 16 n measures , - - -
10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% Jul - 16 0.0% T
30.0% 20.0% 10.0% ASPs which otal revenue
Oct - 16 , Net gearing
Jan - 17 HPR upgrading
has decreased.has thinkWe that ASP missed Source: NBS, NBS, Source: Figure
Source: Wind Source: Cities During Jan. 2011 Figure in in theserelated citi -than-expected 1
100 150 200 250 300 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 50 5 0 200 400 600 800 , 935
increas 0 ratio 2 our expectation. Jan-11 : 4
Cumulative House Sales GFA in China Apr-11 : mn, mn,
Guotai Junan Junan Guotai otl adAqiiinAon n10 Monthly Land Acquisition Amount in 100 , rose rose Jul-11 - and Feb. 2017. In addition, saleable areas extended Guotai Junan Junan Guotai
ed Oct-11 up
Jan-12 since Mar. 2017. slightly
mortgage restrictions by by total revenue. Apr-12 GFA Sold of Residential Houses (RHS) Houses Residential of Sold GFA GFA Sold of Commodity mn) (sq.m. (LHS) Houses Residential of Houses Sold GFA (RHS) mn) (LHS)(sq.m. Houses Commodity of Sold GFA 22.4% YoY. Land Acquisition Premium Rate(RHS) Premium Acquisition Land GFA YoY(RHS) Acquisition Land Monthly Monthly Land Acquisition GFA(LHS)(mn sq.m.) GFA(LHS)(mn Acquisition Land Monthly Jul-12 15.6% Oct-12 es will be maintained. International
Jan-13
International that by by U Apr-13 nderlying net profit -
YoY to Jul-13 3.7 Feb stock level stock . Oct-13 -Dec. 2016. In order to replenish During Jan.
With With Jan-14 ppts . . 201 GPM GPM Apr-14
.
Longfor Properties Longfor These related policies have RMB Jul-14 s
more YoY
Oct-14 7 soaring, especially the in increased s
Jan-15 could tightening Policy . s are s
54, . and lowstock levels in
Apr-15 Cash
land appreciationland tax Jul-15 - Feb. 2017, the YoY 799
On the other hand, Oct-15 relative
increased increased Jan-16 balanc m
1.6 Apr-16 n Jul-16
in (
. Page Page ppts YoY to ly Oct-16 HK 00960
According
2016 due e Jan-17 low.a As - - - - 100.0% 120.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 0.0% - - - 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 0.0% rose 80.0% 60.0% 40.0% 20.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 2 20.8 of of 10 ) by by
%
Company Report Longfor Properties 龙湖地产 (00960 HK) 28 March 2017 Se 117.5 201 its % of Contracted salesare expected to y, Compan the Source: Net ROE equity Shareholders' Total under development Properties Total and Cash tax appreciation Land (HKD cent) EPS Underlying (RMB cent) DPS NPM (Ex. after NPM (Inc. after N N GPM Gross Total mn RMB Table annual s tier c Feb favorablehigher in resources, respectively and RMB Source: Source: Figure ontracted sales in terms of GFA amounted to P P e
-1 cities, tierleading
(Ex. after after (Inc. g . th
earing earing d a r 2017, e evenue p sset ebt 1 The Company rofit las :
5
ales target.
Comparison of the Company’s Balance Sheet and Income Statement in 20 : c 170.0 t
Other Tier Other
Cities, 25% Cities, ash ash
Longfor’s pag r - atio Longfor Property - tax fair value gains on gains value tax IP fair
tax fair value gains gains value taxon IP fair - - e tax fair value gains value tax on IP fair e tax fair value gains on gains value taxIP fair
quivalents fo bn (indicating - r 2 6
. Guotai Junan International Junan Guotai disclaimer
-tier cities Cities, 6% Cities, sales target. Sales target and saleable resources for
Tier S - aleable aleable . 3 -2 cities, other tier
Moreover
.
Despite recorded through rate), respectively. respectively. 64.7% rate), target sale-through S ource Leading Tier Leading
, Cities, 43% Cities,
and exchange losses and exchange losses the Company's future
fast grow and exchange losses and exchange losses policy tightening, we still expect contracted sales to maintain fast growth . Cities, 26% Cities,
s RMB Tier
in in - 2 - - 2 cities 2 1 201 24.45 . 7 B 1.7 mn 1.7 I n 201
b y and n Region
) 6 ) in contractedin sales, dramatically increasing
, contracted sales reached RMB sq.m, up sq.m, ) tier )
pipeline - 3 cities
Sour Figure
266.4
is is will ce: ce: Commercial, mostly focused on improving demand, which could be Others, 3% Others, The Company % YoY.
accountfor 26%, 43%,25%and 6% 10% 6 201 :
Longfor’s 184,089 7 As per As 55,125 52,266 70,830 17,258 13,015 47,423 61.9% 17.5% 16.1% 19.0% 27.4
1,844 1.544 0.357 7,633 8,988 are RMB are 20 T 15 he Company achieved has % apartment, 1 apartment, .
Middle
t
he 2% S
110.0 Company's plan, saleable resources in aleable aleable - 88.14 rise rise SOHO, 7% SOHO, 15
and b n ( b n, up by by up n, S indicating indicating 2016 ource Longfor Properties Longfor apartment, 1 apartment, 269.3% YoY. Accumulated 224,830 Low apartment, 5 apartment, 61,765 57,872 89,426 18, 15,935 54,799 65.6% 15.7% 14.9% 16.7% 29.1%
2,732 1.573 0.357 8,169 9,153 High 4% 2016 s - 940 61.6
rise rise 4% in in - 24.8 rise rise
201 22.2
% YoY, achieving of totalof saleable . % YoY growth)
7 B D
% of its 201 its % of
uringto Jan. ( Page Page 00960 HK 00960 y
Type - - -
3.7 ppts3.7 ppts1.2 ppts2.3 ppts1.6 1.8 ppts Change 3 12.0% 10.7% 26.3% 22.1% 48.1% 22.4% 15.6% of of 9.7% 1.9% 0.0% 7.0% 1.8%
10 )
7
Company Report Longfor Properties 龙湖地产 (00960 HK) 28 March 2017
(amounting to over 70.0% Se stable gross margins. N S Figure RMB 95.1% occupancy rate. In 2017, the Company plans to open L Source: Figure 15.3%. Attribu Hangzhou land land auction market the increase termsin of rental GFA. recent With ource: ource: ongfor's rental income will maintain strong growth. I umerous quality land bank replenishments with low average e ir th
3 investment e , The Company The Company table GFA was 7.7 mn sq.m, up 140.6% YoY. 826 las 8 7 Almost : : The Company's Contracted Sales t
Key Investment Properties in pag and mn in 201 in mn e
all projects w projects all fo Shanghai r propert . .
disclaimer
in 2016in , he averaget land cost of these new acquisition land 9
, or at aCAGR of 26. y In
, and one "U City" mall in Chongqing. Over the next three portfolio, we expect rental income to increase by during 2013-2016), the fast growth of rental income will also help
201
ere tier in
6 , the Company acquired -1 and tier t he Pipeline ly opened malls gradually turning into mature ones and new being malls added to
0 - 2 cities. % in 2016
T otal consideration
43 - n 2016, gross 2019
new projects with total GFA of 12.5 . As aresult of the high gross margins of rental income
five land costs support will contractedsales growth with
“Paradise Walk amounted to
rental revenue recorded around s reacheds RMB
RMB double from RMB ” years, there will be a
complexes Chongqing in
24.0
stabilize bn, up 104.2 % Longfor Properties Longfor mn sq. 6
Longfor's gross margins. , 35.2 329 per sq.m, down by 1, % YoY growth with m, up115.5%m, YoY. 913 1.29 . mn in 201 Despite
( Page Page 00960 HK 00960
, mn sq.m. Suzhou, 4
a of of 6
hot hot 10
)
to to
Company Report Longfor Properties 龙湖地产 (00960 HK) 28 March 2017 sq.m, up Se funding costs declined by 0. The Company proper unit land cost could result in stable gross margins in the next three years. Company, its unit land cost amounted to RMB A q tot Company shoul result in more cash collection from contracted sales. As a result, we estimate net gearing ratios to gradually decline. The was st limited exchange rate risk exposure for the Company.
Figure Source: Source: t Figure Sourc he he e al borrowingsal at the endof 2016
uality th e e: e: nd e ill a healthy level. Contracted sales is expected to record double-digit growth with stable gross margins, which could The Company The Company las 11 9
of 2017 : 19.0%. t
land bank
Other Tier Other : Breakdown of New Land Cities, 33% Cities, pag
Breakdown of Total Land Bank Other Tier Other Cities, 24% Cities, e Cities, 24% Cities, ’ fo s funding costs are expected to remain d maintain
Tier r Land banks intier -
2 . . disclaimer
- 2 - 3 can
stabilize Longfor
a
82
healthy financial position.
ts to to ppts - Cities, 10% Cities, 1 and tier Cities, 13% Cities, Tier and around two third Leading Tier Leading in in Tier Cities, 54% Cities, - 4.92%. Moreover, foreign currency borrowings only accounted for 1 Leading Tier Leading - 201 1 Cities, 42% Cities, ’ 7 B s -2 cities accounted for approximately
- B 2 4 margin , y y - 039 2 GFA asat GFA per sq.m,27.6
s
As at 31Dec. .
As s
at level alow in
at the end of 2016Company, the totalhad a bank land of
of foreign currency borrowings were hedged. T as at Figure Source: Figure S ource: ource:
% ofASP% 2016 in
201 t The Company The Company he he 10 12 Other Tier Other 6 Cities, 21% Cities, , the Company's net gearing ratio was 59.2%, which e : : Other Tier Other
Cities, 24% Cities,
nd nd Breakdown of New Land Breakdown of Total Land Bank a of 2017 healthy position financial - Cities, 15% Cities, 2
Tier - . . 2
76% of the t - 3 . thinkWe that this quality land bank and
otal land bank. According to the Leading Tier Leading Cities, 53% Cities, Longfor Properties Longfor Leading Tier Leading Cities, 43% Cities, Cities, 21% Cities, Cities, 23% Cities, Tier Tier in - 2 - - 1 1 201 . - for's 15.0of Long% for's 2 In 2016 herefore, there is 7 B
B
y y
( Page Page Amount 00960 HK 00960 Amount ,
41.47 mn Longfor's 5 of of
10
)
Company Report Longfor Properties 龙湖地产 (00960 HK) 28 March 2017 Underlying Underlying Net Net Operating profit Operating Gross Gross Se Reiterate Source: Net ROA Gross Total RMB to cash on hand,weexpect moreGFA to bedelivered2017.in reviseWe up2017F and sufficient saleable resources We Jun Company, The Guotai Source: Period Figure 2018F underlying net profit by 0.6 ROCE Operating Operating Table we revise up and 2018F. replenishment activities of Net Net likely to grow fast. Therefore, we expect Longfor to maintain sustainable revenue growth. A HK$ therefore, we that think the positive factors justify alow NAV discount. W ROE Underlying proper unitcost land reiterate fsets e
p g p th
0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% 5.00% 6.00% 7.00% 15.07 revise rofit earing earing rofit r e evenue
m p G 2
rofit las the 13 argin 72, : uotai Junan International Junan uotai
m "Buy". Risk factors Revisions p t
: , representing a 2 4 p n "Buy"
argin rofit rofit pag
714 effects of revising up total revenue and gross2017F margins in and 2018F. r rofit et et ogo' vrg orwn otadDb Longfor's Average Borrowing Cost and Debt atio With higherWith gross margins, we expect more land appreciation taxes than our previous assumptions, which up
net gearing ratio 6.58% p e Average Borrowing Cost Borrowing Average
2013 m
rofit rofit
fo mn andmn RMB underlying profit estimations. a . r 4.6 rgin
Despite policy tightening disclaimer m
argin to
and low
201
6.40% to support contracted sales
2014
an 7 .
4.5 include lower -201
82, financial costs will drive Longfor's margins to stability. I in higher nternational. % discount to its 2017 in 2017 and 2018 12,537 72,714 20,202 21,918 11,194 30.1% 201 59.2% 16.7% 27.8% 15.4% 17.2% 18.9% 8.1% 486 9
7 % and Profit EstimationProfit F 5.74% 2015 New estimation
mn, resmn, -tier citiesand Average Debt period Debt Average 5.24
12,303 13,744 82,486 21,950 23,942 29.0% 201 52.6% 16.6% 26.6% 14.9% 16.7% 18.2% -than 1 8.1% .7 measures pectively.expect We 8 % to RMB F 4.92% -expected contracted sales and absent strong rental 2016
by by
We expectWe that the Company
5.9 13,927 15,725 88,465 24,506 26,305 5.5 29.7% 49.8% 201 16.8% 27.7% 15.7% 17.8% 18.3% , 8.3% s a net gearingr E NAV, 7. NAV, E , Longfor's contracted sales will maintain fast growth.
9 favorable pipeline. With ppts and 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 11,194 F
13,844 71,220 21,309 19,885 11,123 27.9% 53.8% 18.1% 201 29.9% 15.6% 19.4% 19.9% Source: The Company, Guotai J Company, The Guotai Source: Figure 9.2% mn and RMB and mn 0 2.7 x 201 7 7
stable gross margins atios should behigher than our previous assumptions, and F 100% 120% 20% 40% 60% 80%
Old estimation Old ppts, respectively. 0% 14
15,384 76,797 23,717 12,099 21,595 28.1% 49.9% 17.9% 201 30.9% 15.8% 20.0% 19.0% : underlying PER and 1.
9.6% Longfor's Debt Structure by Currency 8 2013 12,303 69% 31% F e
strong contracted sales in 2017 and revise up our target price from HK$ 's contracted sales will
Longfor 201 mn, respectively. Due to necessary n.a. n.a. n. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Overall, we 9
RMB 2018F total revenue by a. . F unan unan
We slightly
2014 70% 30%
will be I nternational. Foreign Currency Foreign ------2.2 1.5 2.1 5.5 0.2 2.2 0.9 1.1
10.2% 201 quality - - 1 Longfor Properties Longfor 9.4% 2.1% 5.2% 0.6% slightly in in ppts ppts ppts ppts ppts ppts ppts x 201 7 ppts
7 income growth.
a healthy financial position, F revise 2015
71% 29%
land bank, reasonable reasonable bank, land Cha
revise grow PBR. ------0.8 0.9 1.3 4.3 2.7 0.8 3.4 1.5 up Its - nge 10.7% 10.9% 201 - 7.5% 7.4% 1.7%
2.1 rental income is is income rental ppts ppts ppts ppts ppts ppts ppts ppts GPM 2017F in rapidly up
8
Therefore
F % and 2016 ( 85% 15% Page Page
00960 HK 00960
2017F and
sufficient sufficient partially 13.22 due to 6 201
7.4 of of land n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. , we we , 10 ) 9
% F
to to
Company Report Longfor Properties 龙湖地产 (00960 HK) 28 March 2017 Se Source: Table Figure Source: Bloomberg, Bloomberg, Source: NAV/Share NAV ( Asse Gross Property Investment Propert Development Net Debt Net e
th e the Company the 3 las : Breakdown of 15 t )/Net Cash )/Net
: pag
t Value t Long e fo Guotai Junan Junan Guotai , r for Properties for
Guotai Junan International Junan Guotai disclaimer
y
the Company
International
3 - Year Historical P/B .
.
’ s 2017 (RMB m) (RMB (41,785) 103,074 144,860 121,698 23,161 17.65 17.65 NAV
(HK$ m) (HK$ 162,764 136,740 115,814 - 46,950 Source: Bloomberg, Bloomberg, Source: Figure 26,024 19.84 19.84
16
:
Longfor Properties
NAV/share Guotai Junan Junan Guotai (8.04) (HK$) 19.84 19.84 27.88 23.42 4.46 4.46
International
3 Longfor Properties Longfor % of NAV - Year Historical P/E 100.0% 140.5% 118.1% 22.5% .
- 41%
( Page Page 00960 HK 00960 % of GAV 100.0% 16.0% 84.0% 7
of of 10 )
Company Report Longfor Properties 龙湖地产 (00960 HK) 28 March 2017 Se Source: Weighted Average Simple Average Median Glorious Property Holdings Kaisa Holdings Group Ltd Zhong An Real Estate L Beijing Capital LandLtd Top Spring International Hld China Sce Property Holdings Central China Real Estate Yuzhou Properties Co Fantasia Holdings Co Group LandHoldings C C Ltd China Aoyuan Property Group Powerlong Real Estate Holdin Modern LandChina Ltd Co ShInd Urban Poly Property Co Group Ltd China Overseas Grand Oceans mid listed HK Weighted Average Simple Average Median China Vanke Greentown China Holdings Yuexiu Real Estate Investmen Beijing North Star Ltd Co Hopson Development Holdings Shenzhen Investment Ltd Yuexiu Property LtdCo Kwg Property Holding Ltd Shui On LandLtd Franshion Properties Sino Guangzhou R&F Properties Shimao Property Holdings Ltd Soho China Ltd Agile Property Holdings Ltd Longfor Properties GardenCountry Holdings Co Bbmg Corporation China Resources Land Ltd Evergrande Real Estate Group China Overseas Land& Invest mainland from revenue major with developers large listed HK Company Table e - Ocean LandOcean Holdings
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, Guotai Junan International Junan Guotai ,
fo -
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r
disclaimer Stock Code Stock
00845 HK 01638 HK 00672 HK 02868 HK 03688 HK 01966 HK 00832 HK 01628 HK 01777 HK 01224 HK 03883 HK 01238 HK 00563 HK 00081 HK 02202 HK 03900 HK 00405 HK 0058 00754 HK 00604 HK 00123 HK 01813 HK 00272 HK 00817 HK 03377 HK 02777 HK 00813 HK 00410 HK 03383 HK 00960 HK 02007 HK 02009 HK 03333 HK 00688 HK 01109 HK 01107 HK 00119 HK
8 HK
Mkt Cap (HK$ m) (HK$ Cap Mkt .
261,347.2 146,700.9 151,441.0 248,705.8 10,203.0 12,479.6 12,192.9 16,981.1 13,418.4 18,269.4 15,779.2 26,695.6 16,369.7 17,254.0 14,046.6 27,106.4 29,755.0 39,377.3 42,405.5 21,942.0 26,910.1 76,678.9 52,063.0 84,964.7 12,479.1 11,672.1 11,112.6 1,526.6 2,935.8 4,591.5 7,144.6 7,958.8 6,091.2 3,254.4 9,333.9 7,074.9 6,857.5
Last Price Price Last 21.650 12.220 12.520 13.120 21.850 22.700 0.650 3.670 2.480 2.980 1.880 3.270 1.240 2.050 2.280 2.920 1.300 1.940 3.330 4.030 7.850 4.570 2.890 7.090 3.490 1.3 5.650 1.750 2.540 3.960 4.220 6.870 6.870 3.290 6.200 0.880 2.430 HK$ 20
2017F 24.5 20.3 47.9 14.9 33.6 10.8 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 7.9 8.5 8.1 7.3 7.8 8.9 4.4 8.3 7.5 6.6 4.8 5 6.8 7.1 9.4 8.9 7.9 9.1 7.0 7.3 8.4 5.6 5.8 5.6 3.6 4.6 7.1 3.7 4.3 3.4 5.9 8.8 .6
PE 2018F 21.9 18.7 38.9 13.9 19.4 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 6.8 7.4 6.9 6.8 7.9 4.0 7.1 6.5 5.8 4.3 5.1 6.0 6. 7.8 8.3 6.8 6.8 6.3 5.2 6.2 4.2 4.2 4.3 2.8 3.8 5.6 3.2 3.7 3.0 4.9 7.5 9.5 3
2019F 23.0 36.3 10.8 14.9 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 5.8 5.2 7.4 3.3 6.2 3.9 3.9 5.2 5.3 5.8 8.1 6.1 5.7 2.6 5.5 3.8 3.3 3.1 4.8 2.7 4.4 6.0 9.1
2017F n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.7 1.7 0.6 1.0 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 1.0 1.6 0.7 1.1 1.3 1.0 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.5 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.7 1.1 0.8
PB 2018F n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.6 1.5 0.5 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.4 0.6 1.0 1.2 0.9 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.7 0 0.6 1.0 0.8 .5
2019F n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.6 1.0 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.8 1.2 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.7
2017F D/Y% Longfor Properties Longfor 12.9 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 4.7 5.1 2.0 6.5 2.3 1.4 6.0 4.7 7.9 2.8 4.4 5.2 8.6 5.8 5.4 5.8 4.3 3.3 1.1 3.6 6.0 3.7 3.9 5.7 5.5 6.5 5.5 8.1 7.9 5.2 4.5 8.5 2.1 0.6 1.0 4.4 4.6
2017F ROE 20.6 13.5 15.7 14.6 18.5 15.3 13.7 14.8 13.5 14.1 19.3 17.8 14.1 20.2 16.8 20.7 13.6 14.5 10.5 11.9 11.8 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 9.6 6.6 4.0 6.6 9.4 5.1 3.9 9.7 8.5 1.3 8.7 7.9 9.7 8.4 4.3 1.3
EV/EBITDA
( Page Page 00960 HK 00960 2017F 21.0 10.1 29.3 10.4 14.4 11.6 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 7.9 5.0 4.2 9.3 9.3 7.9 7.8 7.7 7.2 5.5 8.0 7.0 5.6 8.7 5.0 3.3 6.7 5.3 9.1 5.1 2.9 3.6 5.4 6.8 9.5
8 of of 10 )
Company Report Longfor Properties 龙湖地产 (00960 HK) 28 March 2017 Se Total equity & liabilities Minority interest Total common equity liabilities Total Total non- Other long- Long- Total currentliabilities Other current liabilities Short Accounts payable Total assets and equivalentsCash cash Trade andother receivables Properties under development Total non- Other non- Investment properties Prepaid leasepayments Year End (RMB Dec m) Dividend payout ratio (RMB) DPS Underlying EPS (RMB) EPS(RMB) Diluted Profit attributable to Profitfor the period Profit before income tax Operating profit Gross Profit Cost of Sales Total revenue Year End (RMB Dec m) FinancialStatements and Total currentassets Other current assets Property andequipment ------Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International Junan Guotai Company, the Source:
Minority interest Shareholders (Underlying Profit) Shareholders (Net income) Income tax expense Others Fi Other Expense Administrative expenses Selling andmarketing c FV gainsoninvestment prop. Property investment Property management Sales of properties e nance income/(costs),nance net - term borrowings
term borrowings th
current liabilities current current assets e cu term liabilities term
las rrent assets
t
pag
e osts
fo
r
yoy (%) yoy (%) yoy (%) yoy (%) yoy (%) disclaimer
Income Statement (34,408) 184,089 121,621 184,089 120, (1,435) (4,574) (1,018) 50,574 12,416 38,158 71,047 11,927 52,942 17,920 70,830 63,911 43,385 11,775 13,938 13,015 44,993 47,423 55,125 13,733 21,508 2015A 2015A Balance Sheet 23.1% 1 - 6,178 7,343 9,920 8,543 0.357 1. 1.533 7,633 8,988 9,364 2,874 1,415 1,015 3.3% 0.6% 7.6% 7.1% 8.7%
(43) 302 376 248 297 208 177
Ratios Ratios
(38,864) 224,830 149,715 224,830 138,489 (2,022) (6,021) (1,428) 13,350 58,253 11,226 47,027 91,462 19,404 66,726 17,258 10,324 89,426 86,342 19,691 49,031 17,422 15,956 15,935 51,441 54,799 61,765 14,575 21,480 2016A 2016A 29.7% 14.3% - 5,333 1.399 0. 1.568 8,169 9,153 9,935 1,434 2,018 1,913 1,445 7.5% 2.3% 1.8% 3.7%
(53) 468 782 199
72
.
(50,796) 249,421 164,416 101,089 249,421 149,526 (2,603) (8,669) (1,819) 14,431 63,328 13,479 49,849 20,573 75,449 18,940 13,425 94,131 99,895 17,915 60,353 21,418 11,194 12,537 13,063 21,732 21,918 68,296 72,714 70,574 20,202 23,030 2017F 2017F 29.7% 36.8% 36.8% 37.0% 22.4% 32.8% 5,067 0.641 1.914 2.144 1,578 2,540 2,449 1,969 (48) 525 165 209
(58,544) 272,581 176,745 109,713 272,581 103,987 107,561 165,020 (2,864) (9,316) (1,981) 15,605 67,032 14,691 52,341 21,393 83,507 21,215 15,534 17,132 66,271 23,939 12,303 13,744 14,318 23,634 23,942 77,228 82,486 80,231 21,950 24,284 2018F 2018F 29.7% 37.5% 13.1%
4,813 0.703 2.104 2.350 1,735 2,627 3,061 2,198 9.9% 9.6% 9.6% (51) 226 574 219
(62,160) 296,532 188,339 118,017 296,532 114,427 120,005 176,527 (2,980) (9,977) (2,039) 16,912 70,323 15,364 54,958 22,048 91,396 20,767 16,327 17,592 76,177 26,006 13,927 15,725 16,382 26,360 26,305 84,639 88,465 91,280 24,506 25,006 2019F 2019F 29.7% 21.1% 22.4% 14.4%
4,573 0.859 2.548 2.877 1,909 3,118 3,826 9.2% 9.6% (55) 101 657 230 0
flowCash from financing Other financing cash flow Interests paid Dividends paid Debt raised/(repaid) flowCash from investments Other investing cash flow Purchases of PPE Payment for landright use Additions to IPs fromNet cash operating activities fromNet cash operations Changes in working capital: After adjustments: above Others Interest income Increase in fair valueof IP D&A Finance costs Profit before income tax Year End (RMB Dec m) Margin EBITDA Underlying Net Profit Margin Net Profit Margin Operating Profit Margin Gross Margin Dividend Yield (%) P/B P/E (Diluted) P/E (Basic) Underlying P/E (Diluted) Debt to Equity Ratio Net Gearing Ratio ROA ROCE ROE Ending balance cash Beginning cash balance Total flow cash
PRC income tax paid -
Adjustments f
or: or:
Cash Flow Statement
(17,632) ( 14,460) (2,717) (2 (1,654) (3,281) (3,083) 17,164 13,938 10,655 17,920 18,794 14,081 2015A 2015A 2015A 2015A 29.6% 19.0% 27.4% 16.1% 29.0% 94.8% 61.9% 17.5% 15.6%
3,727 3,320 6,509 2,676 (238) (682) (875) ,440) 7.5% (60) Valuation 169 7.2 3.2 1.2 7.1 8.4 33 43 Margins Ratios
Longfor Properties Longfor
(11,986) (13,738)
s (2,421) (2,304) (1,094) (1,971) (2,178) (4,125) 10,536 15,956 12,840 17,258 17,920 2016A 2016A 2016A 2016A
29.3% 16.7% 29.1% 14.9% 26.6% 93.7% 65.6% 15.7% 13.7%
4,912 3,904 5,606 2,388 6,412 (141) (646) (662) 6.5% 4.0 7.4 1.1 7.4 8.3 10 36 53
(20,085) (13,103) (2,182) (1,392) (2,426) (1,798) (2,983) (5,473) (8,323) 29,038 11,178 21,732 17,860 18,940 17,258 23,565 30.0% 17.2% 30.1% 2017F 15.4% 27.8% 86.2% 59.2% 18.9% 2017F 2017F 16.7% 2017F
2,941 1,350 1,682 (142) 8.1% (10) 426 5.5 5.4 1.0 5.4 6.1 40 48
(12,992) (12,546)
(2,339) (1,540) (2,584) (3,270) (6,208) (2,491) (1,918) 23,967 23,634 19,463 21,215 18,940 17,759 ( 28.8% 16.7% 29.0% 2018F 14.9% 26.6% 79.1% 52.6% 18.2% 16.6% 2018F 2018F 2018F
Page Page 4,504 2,652 1,483 2,276 00960 HK 00960 (143) 8.1% (10) 466 6.0 5.0 0.9 4.9 5.6 44 51
9
of of (16,346) (12,059) ( (1,802) (3,030) (3,741) (6,658) (5,905) (2,924) 25,479 26,360 21,488 20,767 21,215 18,821 2,510) 29.9% 17.8% 29.7% 15.7% 27.7% 2019F 2019F 72.6% 49.8% 18.3% 2019F 2019F 16.8%
3,991 2,818 1,630 (143) (449) 8.3% 10 ) (11) 509
7.4 4.1 0.7 4.0 4.6 49 55
Company Report Longfor Properties 龙湖地产 (00960 HK) 28 March 2017 Se (1) INTERESTS OF DISCLOSURE Horizon: 6to 18 Time months Hong Index HangSeng Kong Benchmark: The Sector Horizon: 6to 18 Time months Hong Hang Kong Benchmark: The Seng Index Company (2) (4) (3) (5) research reports, including investment banking, investment services investment banking, investment including reports, research ( Limited (Hong Kong) or purchase does not to or offer Report acquire, for aninvitation Research securiti subscribe This constitute DISCLAIMER (6) © 2017 such within jurisdiction. requirement or Guotai and any group registration Junan licensing to its companies subject would or which applicable law to or or regulation would becontrary use availability publication, where distribution, such any jurisdiction in or or resident by,of or entity to located any a or who use person is distribution citizen not Research is or directedfor intended at, Report This adviser their own consult financial and where necessary r and its objectives investment the and comprehend understand should Investors contain. may uncertainty so situation, mutable derived assumptions of and the the politi from future forecasts estimates forward some - contain Report Research may This and herein. data information of the and accuracy completeness the guarantee not anddata of has the ensure been cont information the to accuracy effort made best Though of Guotai and by groups banking made Junan. decisions asset investment or investment the tomanagement opinions be contrary differ or report may this in ns expressed opinio Any companies. ofJunan Guotai group of executives professional and other dealers persons, w or in orally expressed strategies or investment opinions to or becontrary report differ this in may expressed opinions Any proprietarily). or invest Tel.: (852) 2509- 27/F., Low 181Queen’s Plaza, Millennium Grand Block, Hong Road Central, Kong. Website: www.gtja.com.hk e Un Neutral Outperform Rating Sell Reduce Neutral Accumulate Buy Rating th The The Analysts andtheir associates The The Analysts andtheir associates Guotai Guotai andJunan its group companies have issuer the Limited (08237 HK), Holdings (01788 HK), A I MSCI GFI (00198 HK), Limited Group SMI Holdings for Except Report. Guotai Junan and its group not making companies are 12 preceding the months. within Report. There is no is There Report. Guotai and itsJunan group companies ashave an an notofficer employed serving of individual Re in issuer this the mentioned derperform e
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Company Report Longfor Properties 龙湖地产 (00960 HK) 28 March 2017