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Company Report: Longfor Properties (00960 HK) Van Liu 刘斐凡 Equity Research Equity 公司报告：龙湖地产 (00960 HK) +86 755 23976672 [email protected]

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Company Report: Longfor Properties (00960 HK) Van Liu 刘斐凡 Equity Research Equity 公司报告：龙湖地产 (00960 HK) +86 755 23976672 Liufeifan@Gtjas.Com 股 票 研 究 Company Report: Longfor Properties (00960 HK) Van Liu 刘斐凡 Equity Research Equity 公司报告：龙湖地产 (00960 HK) +86 755 23976672 [email protected] 28 March 2017 Benign Prospective Fundamentals with Strong Contracted Sales, Reiterate "Buy" 强劲合约销售下的良好基本面展望，重申“买入” 公 2016 underlying net profit missed our expectation. Top line increased by 司 Rating: Buy 15.6% YoY to RMB54,799 mn. Underlying net profit increased 7.0% YoY to Maintained 报 RMB8,169 mn. 评级： 买入 维持 ( ) 告 The Company is expected to have sustainable revenue growth with Company Report Company stable margins. Contracted sales are likely to experience fast growth despite 目标价 policy tightening. Rental income is expected to grow fast. In addition, a quality 6-18m TP : HK$15.07 Revised from 原目标价: HK$13.22 land bank, appropriate unit land cost (27.6% of ASP in 2016) and low funding costs could result in stable margins. 股价： HK$13.120 Share price The Company is expected to maintain a healthy financial position. We estimate net gearing ratios to gradually decline in 2017-2019 and to maintain Stock performance below 60.0%. 股价表现 We think that Longfor deserves a low NAV discount. We revise up our target price from HK$13.22 to HK$15.07, representing a 24% discount to its 2017E 证 NAV, 7.0x 2017 underlying PER and 1.1x 2017 PBR. Therefore, we reiterate "Buy". Risk: lower-than-expected contracted sales and absent rental income 券 growth. 研 究 2016 年核心净利低于预期。总收入同比增长 15.6%到人民币 54,799 百万元。核心净利同 比上升 7.0%到人民币 8,169 百万元。 报 公司预计获得在稳定利润率下的可持续收入增长。尽管政策收紧但合约销售很有可能快速 告 增长。租金收入将快速增长。另外，有质量的土储，合适的单位土地成本（2016 年销售单 Equity Research Report Research Equity 价的 ）以及低的财务成本能导致稳定的利润率。 27.6% 公司能够维持一个健康的财务状况。我们预测净资产负债率在 2017-2019 年逐渐降低并维 Change in Share Price 1 M 3 M 1 Y 股价变动 1 个月 3 个月 1 年 持在 60.0%以下。 Abs. % 绝对变动 % 5.6 36.2 25.0 我们认为龙湖地产应适用一个较低的 NAV 折让。我们将目标价从 13.22 港元上调至 15.07 Rel. % to HS index 相对恒指变动 4.5 24.1 6.0 港元，相当于较其 年 有 折让， 倍 年核心市盈率和 倍 年 % 2017 NAV 24% 7.0 2017 1.1 2017 房 Avg. share price(HK$) 市净率。我们重申“买入”。风险：低于预期的合约销售和强劲的租金收入无法实现。 平均股价（港元） 10.1 10.6 10.6 地 Source: Bloomberg, Guotai Junan International. 产 行 业 SectorProperty Year End Turnover Net Profit EPS EPS PER BPS PBR DPS Yield ROE 年结 收入 股东净利 每股净利 每股净利变动 市盈率 每股净资产 市净率 每股股息 股息率 净资产收益率 12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) (△%) (x) (RMB) (x) (RMB) (%) (%) 2015A 47,423 7,633 1.302 3.3 8.4 9.402 1.2 0.357 3.2 17.5 HK) 2016A 54,799 8,169 1.399 7.5 8.3 10.578 1.1 0.468 4.0 15.7 龙 2017F 72,714 11,194 1.914 36.8 6.1 12.069 1.0 0.641 5.5 18.9 0960 2018F 82,486 12,303 2.104 9.9 5.6 13.720 0.9 0.703 6.0 18.2 (0 湖 2019F 88,465 13,927 2.548 21.1 4.6 16.699 0.7 0.859 7.4 18.3 地 Shares in issue (m) 总股数 (m) 5,841.8 Major shareholder 大股东 Charm Talent Int. Ltd. 44.3% 产 Market cap. (HK$ m) 市值 (HK$ m) 76,678.9 Free float (%) 自由流通比率 (%) 27.5 3 month average vol. 3 个月平均成交股数 (‘000) 6,301.3 FY17 Net gearing (%) FY17 净负债/股东资金 (%) 59.2 52 Weeks high/low (HK$) 52 周高/低 14.080 / 9.500 FY17 Est. NAV (HK$) FY17 每股估值（港元） 19.84 Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International. Longfor Properties Longfor See the last page for disclaimer Page 1 of 10 Longfor Properties (00960 HK) Housing sales growth continued to slow down, but investment growth rebounded. During Jan.-Feb. 2017, the YoY increase in commodity house sales continued to decrease compared to that during Jan.-Dec. 2016. In order to replenish inventories, growth in investment and land area sold rebounded in Jan.-Feb. 2017. In addition, saleable areas extended downside momentum. Figure 1: Cumulative House Sales Amount in China Figure 2: Cumulative House Sales GFA in China 14,000 70.0% 1,800 50.0% 60.0% 1,600 12,000 40.0% March2017 50.0% 1,400 8 30.0% 2 10,000 40.0% 1,200 30.0% 20.0% 8,000 1,000 20.0% 10.0% 6,000 800 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% 600 4,000 -10.0% -10.0% 400 2,000 -20.0% 200 -20.0% 0 -30.0% 0 -30.0% Amount Sold of Commodity Houses (LHS)(RMB bn) GFA Sold of Commodity Houses (LHS)(sq.m. mn) Amount Sold of Residential Houses (LHS) (RMB bn) GFA Sold of Residential Houses (LHS) (sq.m. mn) Amount Sold YTD YoY of Commodity Houses (RHS) GFA Sold of Commodity Houses (RHS) Amount Sold YTD YoY of Residential Houses (RHS) GFA Sold of Residential Houses (RHS) Source: NBS, Guotai Junan International. Source: NBS, Guotai Junan International. Targeted policies will be maintained to promote the steady and sound development of the property sector. According to CRIC, the stocks-to-sales ratio decreased to 8.7 months in Feb. 2017, which means that stock levels are relatively low. As a result, the government's level of tolerance to soaring ASPs has decreased. We think that ASPs soaring, especially in the second-hand house market, triggered the recent round of policy tightening since Mar. 2017. These related policies have mainly involved an increase in minimum down payment, HPR upgrading and mortgage restrictions. Policy tightening could curb investment demand and delay rigid demand, thus cooling the property market. With high ASPs and low stock levels in tier-1, tier-2 and select tier-3 cities, policy tightening measures in these related cities will be maintained. On the other hand, lower-tier cities with high stock levels will be under a policy easing environment. ) Figure 3 : Stocks-to-Sales Ratios by City Tier During Jan. Figure 4: Monthly Land Acquisition Amount in 100 00960 HK ( 2011- Jan. 2017 Cities During Jan. 2011- Feb. 2017 Months 300 120.0% 28 100.0% 250 80.0% 龙湖地产 24 200 60.0% 20 40.0% 150 20.0% 16 0.0% 12 100 -20.0% -40.0% 8 50 -60.0% 4 0 -80.0% Longfor Properties 11 11 12 12 13 13 14 14 15 15 16 16 11 12 13 14 16 17 15 12 13 14 15 16 11 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0 - - - - - - Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Apr Oct Apr Oct Apr Oct Apr Oct Apr Oct Apr Oct Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan 11 14 16 12 13 15 17 11 12 13 14 15 16 11 11 12 12 13 13 14 14 15 15 16 16 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Monthly Land Acquisition GFA(LHS)(mn sq.m.) Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Apr Oct Apr Oct Apr Oct Apr Oct Apr Oct Apr Oct Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Monthly Land Acquisition GFA YoY(RHS) Tier-1 Cities Tier-2 Cities Tier-3 Cities Land Acquisition Premium Rate(RHS) Source: CRIC, Guotai Junan International. Source: Wind, Guotai Junan International. 2016 underlying net profit missed our expectation. Total revenue increased by 15.6% YoY to RMB54,799 mn in 2016 due to strong contracted sales growth. Gross profit amounted to RMB15,935 mn, up 22.4% YoY. With more land appreciation tax paid, net profit increased 1.8% YoY to RMB9,153 mn, which missed our expectation. Underlying net profit increased 20.8% YoY to RMB658 mn, also missing our expectation riding on lower-than-expected total revenue. GPM increased 1.6 ppts YoY to 29.1%. Net profit margin declined 1.2 ppts YoY to 14.9%. Net gearing ratio rose slightly by 3.7 ppts YoY. Cash balance rose by 9.7% YoY to RMB18,940 mn. Company Report See the last page for disclaimer Page 2 of 10 Longfor Properties (00960 HK) Table 1: Comparison of the Company’s Balance Sheet and Income Statement in 2015 and 2016 RMB mn 2015 2016 Change Total revenue 47,423 54,799 15.6% Gross profit 13,015 15,935 22.4% GPM 27.4% 29.1% 1.6 ppts NP (Inc. after-tax fair value gains on IP and exchange losses) 8,988 9,153 1.8% NP (Ex. after-tax fair value gains on IP and exchange losses) 7,633 8,169 7.0% March2017 NPM (Inc. after-tax fair value gains on IP and exchange losses) 19.0% 16.7% -2.3 ppts 8 2 NPM (Ex. after-tax fair value gains on IP and exchange losses) 16.1% 14.9% -1.2 ppts DPS (RMB cent) 0.357 0.357 0.0% Underlying EPS (HKD cent) 1.544 1.573 1.9% Land appreciation tax 1,844 2,732 48.1% Cash and cash equivalents 17,258 18,940 9.7% Total asset 184,089 224,830 22.1% Properties under development 70,830 89,426 26.3% Total debt 52,266 57,872 10.7% Shareholders' equity 55,125 61,765 12.0% ROE 17.5% 15.7% - 1.8 ppts Net gearing ratio 61.9% 65.6% 3.7 ppts Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International. Contracted sales are expected to fast grow. In 2016, contracted sales reached RMB88.14 bn, up by 61.6% YoY, achieving 117.5% of its 2016 sales target. Sales target and saleable resources for 2017 are RMB110.0 bn (indicating 24.8% YoY growth) and RMB170.0 bn (indicating 64.7% target sale-through rate), respectively.
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