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FANUC Maintains Its Reputation for Being the Best

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FANUC Maintains Its Reputation for Being the Best June 2, 2015 Rating: Market Perform Price target: Consensus ¥26,468 O'Neil ¥26,442 Closing price on 6/2/15: ¥27,700 Romeo Alvarez senior equity analyst [email protected] 310.448.6913 800.545.8940 | williamoneil.com Source: FANUC America Corp. FANUC Maintains Its Reputation for Being the Best FANUC Corp. ([email protected]; 6954:JP), producer of robotic and indus- trial automation systems, holds a dominant global market posi- tion, due in part to its highly efficient manufacturing base. Along with KUKA AG (IWKX. DE; KU2:GR), ABB Ltd. (ABB.CH; ABBN:VX), As of 06/2/2015 FANUC and Yaskawa Electric ([email protected]; 6506:JP), FANUC is part of the Symbol [email protected]; 6954:JP “the Big 4” vying for China’s rapidly expanding industrial robot Price ¥ 27,700 market, and like some of these competitors, it is launching new, Market cap (US$ bil) 53.3 non-automotive applications to fill emerging demand. We be- Shares outstanding (mil) 240 50-day avg daily volume lieve that FANUC will continue to post stable revenue and profit 42.4 (US$ mil) growth over the next few years, as one of the few pure-plays in 52-week high/low ¥28,575/¥16,940 the factory automation market. We are initiating coverage of this 2014 ROE 16.1 stock under our Robotics and Automation theme with a Market Dividend yield 2.3% Perform rating. P/E 26 Company Profile 1-year return 63% Relative Strength rating 87 Japan-based FANUC develops and manufactures computer nu- Accumulation/Distribution C merical control (CNC) equipment, factory automation systems, rating and industrial robots. The Company has a global reach, with over 230 locations in 45 countries, and serves a wide range of industries, including automotive, electronics, aerospace, alternative energy, logistics, metal fabrication, medical, and food and beverage. FA- NUC has multiple factories, all based in Japan, including a CNC LoseAngeles • NeweYork • Boston • London Page 1 June 2, 2015 production plant that can produce 25,000 CNCs and robot con- trollers per month, and a robot factory that can produce 5,000 ro- Romeo Alvarez senior equity analyst bots per month. [email protected] 310.448.6913 The Company has a long history of being the best in everything 800.545.8940 | williamoneil.com it does, as well as the fastest to market. Its visionary founder, Dr. Seiuemon Inaba, describes the Company's mission as "walking the narrow path," which refers to its focus on developing a concentrat- FY2015 Sales by ed line-up of products that are technically superior, with the lowest Geographic Area possible cost structure. FANUC has now become the standard for machine tool control software and motors, with a global market share of approximately 60%. FANUC’s primary activity, through its Robomachine division, is mak- ing machining centers that provide factories with the tools needed to shape metal into Apple’s iPhone© cases, Tesla’s Model S vehicles, or the ribs of Boeing’s airplanes. The Company is well-positioned in this market, as it has a lower cost base and also more capacity than all of its competitors combined. This division accounted for 40% of total revenue in fiscal year 2015, followed by 35% from the Source: Company data, William O’Neil + Co. Inc. Factory Automation division, and 25% from the Robot division (see details below). Business Segments Robomachines Factory Automation (FA) Robots 40% of revenues 35% of revenues 25% of revenues Robodrills, electric injec- Computerized numeri- Articulated robots, tion molding machines cally-controlled (CNC) robot hands, and related (ROBOSHOT), wire-cut hardware and software, software electric discharge ma- servo motors, and high- chines (ROBOCUT), and power CO2 lasers. CNC nano control machines systems serve as the (ROBONANO) brains of machine tools and robots Source: Company website Smartphone Casings Drive Robodrill Demand In recent years, manufacturers of mid- and high-end smartphones have been opting for aluminum frames for a distinctive look. As the popularity of handsets such as Apple’s iPhone continues to increase, metal casing manufacturers are having to ramp up their CNC machining capacity to keep up with demand. Conse- quently, smartphone manufacturing is now one of FANUC’s larg- est end-markets for its Robodrill product, a small CNC machining center used to cut the metal casings on smartphones. Part of the Copyright © 2015 Apple Inc. All rights reserved. LoseAngeles • NeweYork • Boston • London Page 2 June 2, 2015 solid performance in the Company’s FY2015 financials was due to stronger-than-expected recovery in orders for Robodrills from Romeo Alvarez senior equity analyst smartphone manufacturers based in Asia. [email protected] 310.448.6913 FANUC's Robodrill is just one example of the Company’s ability to 800.545.8940 | williamoneil.com become the manufacturing standard in new end-markets. A little known product a few years ago, used only by Apple in its unibody metal casings process, Robodrill sales now have increased six-fold Robot Applications over the past five years. Apple today uses the Robodrill for all of its products, prompting some of its direct competitors, such as Sam- sung and Xiaomi, to follow suit. Looking forward, we believe Robo- drill demand will grow, as metal casings become the standard for most smartphone manufacturers. Robot Applications FANUC develops the most complete line of industrial robots for most manufacturing applications, including arc welding, assembly, material removal, painting, palletizing, part transfer, spot welding, Transfer robot and picking and packaging. Additionally, the Company’s robots can be retrofitted to complete any application within the manu- facturing process. The FANUC M-1iA robot is best suited for small part assembly but can be retrofitted for other applications, such as part transfer and finishing. Lotte Confectionery, South Korea’s largest maker of sweets and chocolate, has installed a fleet of FANUC’s new Genkotsu robots that can grab more than 100 piec- es of candy a minute off conveyor belts. At Marshalls, a U.K.-based building-supply company, FANUC robots perform a chore that was unpopular with its human employees: placing concrete slabs in an oven and removing the blocks after they have been baked. These Palletizing robot are just two of the many applications that FANUC robots undertake to help companies in various industries become more competitive and efficient, while reducing work-related injuries. New $830 Million Factory In September 2014, FANUC announced the acquisition of land for a new cutting-edge factory that will increase its capacity to pro- duce CNCs, servo motors, and servo amplifiers. Construction is cur- rently under way to put the factory into operation in October 2016, part of the Company’s preparation to meet growing demand in China and other emerging economies. This factory represents Arc welding robot the Company’s fourth manufacturing base in Japan, following Source: Company website the factory at FANUC’s headquarters (Yamanashi Prefecture), the Tsukuba Factory (Ibaraki Prefecture), and the Hayato Factory (Ka- LoseAngeles • NeweYork • Boston • London Page 3 June 2, 2015 goshima Prefecture). In Phase 1, the new plant will have a monthly production capacity of 10,000 CNC units, 60,000 servo motor units, Romeo Alvarez senior equity analyst and 35,000 servo amplifiers. Combined with production at its CNC [email protected] plant in the Yamanashi Prefecture, Fanuc's monthly output capac- 310.448.6913 800.545.8940 | williamoneil.com ity will grow 40% to 35,000 CNC units. Total cost of the new facility is expected to reach approximately 100 billion yen ($830 million). China’s Automation Boom According to the International Federation of Robotics (IFR), 2014 was another record year for industrial robots: 225,000 robots were sold, representing a 27% increase over 2013, with growth largely driven by demand from the auto industry. By geographic area, growth was widespread across all regions, with China and South Korea reaching new peak levels. For a second year in a row, Chi- na was the largest market for industrial robots, with approximately 56,000 units sold (+54% over 2013). Of those robots, 71% were sup- plied by international vendors, while Chinese robot suppliers deliv- ered the remainder. FANUC is aiming to challenge other members of “the Big Four,” Yaskawa Electric, ABB Ltd., and Kuka AG, to take the lead in China’s robot market, where shipments are expected to grow to 12% annually over the next few years (2014-2017). 2014: Sales Rapidly Increasing Worldwide annual supply of industrial robots 2005-2014* *preliminary result Source: IFR Statistical Department The automation of China's production plants is still nascent. The country's CNC penetration rate of 30% equals Japan's levels 40 years ago. Today, almost all Japan's machine tools are CNC ma- chines. By robot density, China is projected to have over 100 robots LoseAngeles • NeweYork • Boston • London Page 4 June 2, 2015 per 10,000 workers by 2020, according to the country’s Vice Minis- ter of Industry and Information Technology. That ratio lags Japan Romeo Alvarez senior equity analyst and Germany’s rate of 332-273 units per 10,000 employees, but is [email protected] a large increase from China’s current rate of 30. According to IFR, 310.448.6913 800.545.8940 | williamoneil.com around one million new robots will need to be activated in China over the next few years for it to catch up, and certain provinces in the country are creating incentives that could help it reach that Robotics Investments goal (see sidebar). Encouraged Guangdong province, China’s The 'Big Four' in the Automation Market southern manufacturing base, will invest 943 billion yuan ($152 billion) to Market FY14 FY2014 FY2015e FY2014 FY2015e Company Cap EBITDA Revenue Revenue EPS EPS replace human workers with robots (US$ bil) Margin Growth Growth Growth Growth within three years.
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