Saxony Liaison Office Brussels Accepting the demographic change – how do European regions adapt to population ageing and shrinking to stay competitive?
Ageing and Competiveness: Regional Answers to Demographic Change, Brussels, May 13th, 2014
organize change develop move
DCRN
Demographic Change – It happens
German tabloid bild.de: Dramatic Development Frightened by the crisis: Less Babys throughout Europe
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1 DCRN
Demographic Change – Times are changing!
NEW! Senior Citizens Birthday You have Parties at McDonalds! arrived at your Who destination! ordered the bury I ordered Burger? a Happy Last Meal!
Team Meeting
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NUTS-2-regions, 2004-2008: Change of population
(EUROSTAT 2010)
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2 NUTS-2-regions, 2009: In 100 inhabitants between 15 and 65 years of age there were …% inhabitants with 65+ years of age
(EUROSTAT 2010)
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NUTS-2-regions, 2008-2030: change of % of inhabitants with 65+ years of age
(EUROSTAT 2010)
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3 Demografic Risk Map 2004-2030 Mapping the Regional Demographic Change Index
© Rostocker Zentrum zur Erforschung des Demografischen Wandels
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DCRN Demographic Change – Germany and Saxony
Inhabitants 2009 2025 Change in 1.000 % Baden-Württemberg 10 740 10 640 -1,0 Bayern 12 512 12 594 0,7 Berlin 3 419 3 373 -2,0 Brandenburg 2 509 2 355 -6,2 Bremen 660 645 -2,5 Hamburg 1 778 1 853 4,4 Hessen 6 047 5 881 -3,0 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern 1 649 1 473 -10,8 Niedersachsen 7 920 7 546 -4,8 Nordrhein-Westfalen 17 870 17 112 -4,3 Rheinland-Pfalz 4 014 3 900 -2,8 Saarland 1 022 918 -10,2 Sachsen 4 165 3 778 -9,4 Sachsen-Anhalt 2 352 1 977 -16,1 Schleswig-Holstein 2 829 2 776 -2,0 Thüringen 2 244 1 934 -14,0
Quellen: Daten - Statistisches Landesamt des Freistaates Sachsen, Statistisches Bundesamt - 31.12.2009: Bevölkerungsfortschreibung; 2025: 12. koord. Bevölkerungsvorausberechnung, Variante 1-W1 (Wert für Sachsen entspricht der 5. Regionalisierten Bevölkerungsprognose für den Freistaat Sachsen bis 2025, Variante 1); Gebietsstand 01.01.10, Grafik - Sächsische Staatskanzlei, Ref. 35 8 | 23. Mai 2014 | Sachsen-Verbindungsbüro Brüssel
4 Germany & Free State of Saxony 2025 % of inhabitants with 80+ years of age
9 | 23. Mai 2014 | Sachsen-Verbindungsbüro Brüssel Sources: Stat. Bundesamt / Stat. Landesamt SN
DCRN
Demographic Change – Saxony Population Development in the Free State of Saxony 1990 until 2025
Sources: Grafik - Sächsische Staatskanzlei, Ref. 35 Daten - Statistisches Landesamt des Freistaates Sachsen - 1990-2011: 10 | 23. Mai 2014 | Sachsen-Verbindungsbüro Brüssel Bevölkerungsfortschreibung - jeweils zum 31.12.; 2012-2025: Daten aus der 5. Regionalisierten Bevölkerungsprognose für den Freistaat Sachsen
5 DCRN
Demographic Change – Saxony Labour force potential is declining! Development of the labour force potential until compared with the year 2010 (2010 = 100 %)
Sources: Grafik - Sächsische Staatskanzlei, Ref. 35 Daten - Statistisches Landesamt des Freistaates Sachsen - 1990-2011: Bevölkerungsfortschreibung - jeweils zum 31.12.; 2012-2025: Daten aus der 11 | 23. Mai 2014 | Sachsen-Verbindungsbüro Brüssel 5. Regionalisierten Bevölkerungsprognose für den Freistaat Sachsen
DCRN
Demographic Change – Saxony Births per Woman in the Free State of Saxony 1990 – 2011
Sources: *altersspezifische Geburtenziffern für Frauen im Alter von 15 bis unter 45 Grafik: Sächsische Staatskanzlei, Ref. 35 Jahren Daten: Statistisches Landesamt des Freistaates Sachsen Hinweis: ab 2008 altersspezifische Geburtenziffern für Frauen im Alter von 15 bis unter 50 Jahren 12 | 23. Mai 2014 | Sachsen-Verbindungsbüro Brüssel
6 DCRN
Demographic Change – Saxony Projection of the Population Development until 2025 compared to 2011 (5th regional Population Developmet Projection, Variantion 1
Population 2011 2025 Change
In 1.000 % KFS Chemnitz 243,2 221,1 -9,1 LK Erzgebirgskreis 363,7 307,3 -15,5 LK Mittelsachsen 324,9 277,5 -14,6 LK Vogtlandkreis 241,6 205,0 -15,2 LK Zwickau 338,3 288,5 -14,7 KFS Dresden 529,8 554,0 4,6 LK Bautzen 318,6 273,5 -14,2 LK Görlitz 273,5 232,1 -15,1 LK Meißen 251,3 223,9 -10,9 LK Sächsische 250,9 232,2 -7,5 Schweiz- Osterzgebirg e KFS Leipzig 531,8 538,6 1,3 LK Leipzig 265,3 241,8 -8,8 LK Nordsachsen 204,2 182,0 -10,8 Sources: Freistaat Sachsen 4.137,1 3.777,5 -8,7 Grafik - Sächsische Staatskanzlei, Ref. 35 Daten - Statistisches Landesamt des Freistaates Sachsen - 31.12.2011: Bevölkerungsfortschreibung; 2025: 5. Regionalisierte Bevölkerungsprognose für den Freistaat Sachsen bis 2025, Variante 1; 13 | 23. Mai 2014 | Sachsen-Verbindungsbüro Brüssel Gebietsstand 01.01.12
DCRN Demographic Change – Saxony
Projection of the Population Development until 2025 in the municipalities (5th regional Population Developmet Projection, Variantion 2 Hoyerswerda
Sources: Grafik - Sächsische Staatskanzlei, Ref. 35 Daten - Statistisches Landesamt des Freistaates Sachsen - 31.12.2011: Bevölkerungsfortschreibung; Gebietsstand 01.01.12; 2025: 5. Regionalisierte Bevölkerungsprognose für den Freistaat Sachsen bis 2025, Variante 2; Hinweis: Prognoseergebnisse werden nur für Gemeinden veröffentlicht, die am 31. Dezember 2008 mindestens 5 000 Einwohner hatten.
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7 DCRN Demographic Change – Trends and Facts in Saxony
(+) • Since 2011 more people coming to Saxony than leaving (esp. to Dresden, Leipzig, Chemnitz, „education migrants“ [„Bildungswanderer“]) • Since 2010 highest brith-rate of all German „Länder“ (2011: 1,48 Geburten per woman) • Cities of Dresden und Leipzig growing (some of the surrounding suburbs are growing in places) • Population density right at the German average (D=229; Saxony=225) • Longer life in a healthy condition (-) • 2nd with regard to the average age of the population of the German „Länder“ (2011: 47 years) • Rural, peripheral areas regions are shrinkings and ageing relatively fast (border regions to Poland and the Czech Republic etc.) • Population decline esp. In rural areas and industrial areas in decline • Ageing of the people that are economically active (Problem of skilled labour force/ young professionals)
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Development of Hoyerswerda - aerial photo comparison 1953 and 2002 1953 2002
Seidewinkel Seidewinkel
Kühnicht Historic Town Center Kühnicht Historic Town Center
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8 History of the Town Development
1423 Town Charter WK 10 1986 - 90 Industrial Revolution at the end of the 19th - upswing (brown coal mining, glas industry and railway) WK 9 Kühnicht Grünewaldring 1973 - 75 1955 Start of the assembling of the the combine/collective power plant „Schwarze Pumpe“ (Black Pump) WK 8 1966 - 72 WK 1 1957 Laying of the foundation stone of 1957 - 64 the“Neustadt“ (New Town) on the WK 2 WK 3e Eastern Banks of the „Schwarze 1975 Elster“ River and start of the 1957 - 64 WK 3 1959 - 61 incorporation → controlled/steered Klein Zeißig immigration WK 4 Historic New Town Center 1961 - 64 Center 1968 - 95 1989/1990 The Turnaround - Start of a WK 5 WK 7 fundamental change of the econmic 1962 - 64 structures 1965 - 66 WK 5e 1962 - 75 WK 6 1964 - 65
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Population Development with the current area of the municipality with prognosis until 2030 1980: The populations 74.481 has80.000 grown since 1957 through immigration 71.484 (400%70.000 increase) 62.908 60.595 1990:60.000 The migration sarts due to economic 50.203 reasons50.000 42.607
36.616 On 40.00031.12.2011 31.800 33.180 1998 last Incorporation inhabitants less 29.431 compared30.000 to 1990 are living in Hoyerswerda. 18.783 20.000 13.538 23.410 10.000 4.430 Prognose 0
Population in the current area of the municipality 5th regional Prognosis. Var. 1
Var. 2 Prognosis Bertelsmann-Foundation
Whereas the decline of population in Saxony is mainly caused by a low birth rate, Hoyerswerda was hit by an „exodus“ since 1990. This „exodus“ is slowing down since 2003. The „birth deficit“ will level at -400 p.a. in Hoyerswerda.
Quelle: Statistisches Landesamt des Freistaates Sachsen, 5. Regionalisierte Bevölkerungsprognose V1 und V2, Prognose Bertelsm ann-Stiftung
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9 General consideration of the goals of the deconstruction in the zonig plan of 2006 Deepening of the objectives of the deconstructin in the integrated urband development concept (INSEK) 2008 - Hoyerswerda New Town
Almost complete deconstruction – planned realisation until 2020 WK 9 and WK 10 Extensive deconstruction – partly finished Connected parts of housing areas, (e. g. WK 8, New Town Center) Small scale deconstruction – finished provisionally Groups of houses (e.g. WK 4, 5e, WK 6, WK 7) Selective deconstruction – not finished Single houses (e.g. WK 3, WK 4, WK 5) 93,50 ha, which need to be unsealed The deconstruction is demand responsive. There is no
statutory requirement for deconstruction.
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Housing Units and Vacancies
100% •Stabilizing the Housing Market
4,9 % •Deconstruction with the goal to have an useful cityscape and5,7 % 6,0 % 6,3 % 95% improvement of the areas hit by deconstruction 8,3 % 10,1 % 11,4 % 90% •Strenghening of the historic city center and the areas that are worthy to be preserved 13,9 % 14,2 % 16,4 % 17,9 % 17,4 % 85% •Deconstruction projects18,3 % are processed in a close communication process with the large scale landlords and the public utilities providers – meeds constant updating. 80% •The current planned deconstruction process until 2020 includes 12.100 accomodation units. 75% 1990 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Vacancies 0 1.654 4.597 4.876 4.829 4.434 3.549 3.353 2.629 2.264 1.791 1.314 1.173 992 Total Housing Units 27.027 27.444 28.108 27.200 26.404 25.541 24.969 24.142 22.995 22.482 21.704 20.965 20.570 20.221
Empty Accommodation Units total Accommodation Units
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10 Deconstruction of Housing Units in the Residental Complexes 1.226 Monitoring Deconstruction Hoyerswerda, total, 31.12.2011
1.796 New Town: 8.291 WE
Historic Center: 485 WE 1.683 Knappenrode: 86 WE 150 Other parts: 19 WE 251 485 304 Total deconstruction in New Town until 2025 ~12.095 WE 1.392 299 (Accomodation Units)
559 443 Adaption of the numer of accomodation units to the population
188 development!
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Objective of the Zoning Plan
Finished Large Scale Deconstruction Deconstruction of WK 10 housing units, esp. in WK 9 New Town (12/2011) WK 8
WK 1 WK 2 WK 3
WK 4 Deconstruction WK 5 WK 6 + 7 Existing housing Units Small Scale Deconstruction The deconstruction is demand responsive. There is no statutory requirement for deconstruction.
Stand 12/2011 22 | 23. Mai 2014 | Sachsen-Verbindungsbüro Brüssel
11 Hoyerswerda
Aerial Photo 2001
Display of the large scale deconstruction until 31.12.2011 WK 8, 9 und 10
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Urban restructuring New Town Center
Bautzener Allee 32 b, c, d Einstein-Straße 1 - 5 demolished 2000, demolished 2001 now: Garden of Sculptures, built 2009 Virchowstr. 59 Leon-Foucault- demolished Grammar School , 2007 refurbished 2000 to Virchowstr. 37-41; 2003 46-49 from 2007 to 2008 restructured
Virchowstr. 53-57, refurbished 2007
Virchowstr. 42-45; Straße des Friedens 50-52 partly 21-24 demolished 2008 demolished in now: Campus Meadow 2006
Stadtpromenade 1-10 and 12 demolished 2002 to 2004 now Central park Straße des Friedens 14-18 demolished Straße des Friedens 9-12 Stadtpromenade 11 refurbished 2006, now: Park wirh Beachvolleyball demolished 2007 2009 - 2012 and now „Lausitztower“ Courts, builtt 2007 now: family park, built 2009
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12 Development of the new 2009 „Zentalpark“ (Central park)
Awarded Project of the competition „Gardens in the City 2011“
2011
2008
Objektplanung Objektplanung Wohnungsgesellschaf HY t
Stadtentwicklungsvortrag 39
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New development for the deconstruction areas
Garden of sculptures Children‘s traffic park WK 3
Beachvolleycourt Family Park
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13 Redesigning the residental areas in the
„Neustadt“ (New town)
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Redevelopment of residental buildings
von
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14 Examples of Communication of the urban restructuring
Workshops Cooperation Working Group „Urban Restructuring“ Expertmeetings Exhibition of the results Informationcenter „Orange Box“
External and internal effects!
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DCRN
Demographic Change – It happens Always in the media: „Free State needs more flats for he elderly – 2030 a third of Saxonys population will be part of the generation 65+“ or „Need for more age- appropriate flats“ or „we are running out of flats for the elderly“
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15 Vision and Future Strategy „Hoyerswerda 2025“ - Active Citizens and Companies WALLI – A smart flat for the elderly Virtual tour: http://www.lebensraeume- hy.de/aktuelles/news/modellwohnung- walli-in-echt-und-virtuell-begehbar.html The multi-awarded Kulturfabrik Hoyerswerda (Culture Factory) doing impressive project dealing with demography:
FOKUSGRUPPE
Städtebau, Wohnen,
Verkehr
Time Out: Thinking about H. http://www.kufa-hoyerswerda.de/auszeit- Postcards 2013 nachdenken-uber-h.html and on youtube 31 | 23. Mai 2014 | Sachsen-Verbindungsbüro Brüssel
Vision and Future Strategy „Hoyerswerda 2025“
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DCRN Demography Test – Since 2011 all projects coming to the Saxon Cabinet (Meeting of the Ministers) have to be checked from a demographic point of view
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17 Approach in Saxony: structure policy
1. Two administrative reforms on district level since 1990 (1995 und 2008) 2. One statutory municipal territory reform (1998/1999) 3. A wide range administrative- and functional reform(2008) 4. over 800 schools shut down 5. Solid budgetary/fiscal policy (debt per capita 2010: 2.847 € [Bavaria 3.380, Northrhine-Westphalia 12.775) 6. Further adaption measures (cessation of local rail transport, thinning of public transport, urban restructuring (e. g. demolition of accomoodation units)) 7. Further development and expansion of the infrastructures (e.g. Transport, Universties) concentrated in the three big cities of Dresden, Leipzig and Chemnitz
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Approach in Saxony: : topic related measures
1.Funding Guideline Demography 2.All-day offers in schools 3.Week days companion of the SMS ( started 20.03.2013) 4.Programme „Open-minded Saxony“ 5.Competition „Impulsive regions“ of the SMI (started 21.05.2013) 6.Support of volunteer work (Funding Guideline of the SMS „We for Saxony“) 7.„Generations Award“ of the Prime Minister „Together“ 8.Demography Award of the saxon craft guild 2012, 2013 9.…
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18 Funding Guideline Demography
• Funding Guideline since 2007 • Goal of the Funding Guideline ist to test and support ideas and new ways, that could help to organise and shape the demographic change in Saxony in a positve way • Broad variety of project partners: Municipalities, Associations, Clubs, etc. • Since 2007 118 projects were funded ( 5,6 Mio. Euro)
• Per year 20 projects are implemented
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Selection of projects of the Funding Guideline Demography
1.Demography-and innovation partnership of the cities of Colditz – Geithain – Kohren-Sahlis – Rochlitz 2.Feasibility Study of a „Citizens Bus Service“ in the Region“Lommatzscher Pflege“ 3.Health-Management in the social and educational sector – Distric of North SaxonyLandkreis Nordsachsen 4.Social Signpost for the District Ore Montains 5.Demographic action- and communication concept Ebersbach 2030 6.Future Chances im Town-Network Upper Lusatia-Lower Silesia 7.Local Mobility Project Bahretal 8.Kids-Shuttle Wittichenau 9.Innovative Sewerage Concept – Espenhain Sewer and Water Board 10.Citizens Bus Erlbach 11.…and many more
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19 DCRN Selection of projects of the Funding Guideline Demography TU Chemnitz (University of Technology) Municipality of Weisswasser – Demographic change in the world of Improved fire-fighting and fire- work/employment prevention through intercommunal co-operation
TU Dresden (University of Technology) Well supplied in the rural areas
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DCRN
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20 Creation and expansion of modern administration portals/gateways
Citizens’ Service Terminal … beeing there – even in times of demografic decline
41 | 2. April 2014 | State Minister Dr. Jürgen Martens
Creation and expansion of modern administration portals/gateways
Portable Citizens’ Service Office … beeing there – even in times of demografic decline
❙ the townhall „on the road“ ❙ services can be provided in a flexible way in various locations away from the public administration offices, for example in libraries, retirement and nursing homes, hospitals and other public institutions ❙ personal contact as cornerstone ❙ comprises: ❙ Notebook ❙ Scanner ❙ Printer ❙ Fingerprintsensor ❙ eID-Terminal
42 | 2. April 2014 | State Minister Dr. Jürgen Martens
21 www.demografie.sachsen.de 43 | 23. Mai 2014 | Sachsen-Verbindungsbüro Brüssel
Thank You!
Andreas Kühl Saxon State Ministry of Justice and for European Affairs Saxony Liaison Office Brussels T: +32 (0)2 235.87.31 F: +32 (0)2 235.87.22 [email protected]
Demographic Change in Saxony:
www.demografie.sachsen.de Demographic Change.
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