Saxony Liaison Office Brussels Accepting the demographic change – how do European regions adapt to population ageing and shrinking to stay competitive? Ageing and Competiveness: Regional Answers to Demographic Change, Brussels, May 13th, 2014 organize change develop move DCRN Demographic Change – It happens German tabloid bild.de: Dramatic Development Frightened by the crisis: Less Babys throughout Europe 2 | 23. Mai 2014 | Sachsen-Verbindungsbüro Brüssel 1 DCRN Demographic Change – Times are changing! NEW! Senior Citizens Birthday You have Parties at McDonalds! arrived at your Who destination! ordered the bury I ordered Burger? a Happy Last Meal! Team Meeting 3 | 23. Mai 2014 | Sachsen-Verbindungsbüro Brüssel NUTS-2-regions, 2004-2008: Change of population (EUROSTAT 2010) 4 | 23. Mai 2014 | Sachsen-Verbindungsbüro Brüssel 2 NUTS-2-regions, 2009: In 100 inhabitants between 15 and 65 years of age there were …% inhabitants with 65+ years of age (EUROSTAT 2010) 5 | 23. Mai 2014 | Sachsen-Verbindungsbüro Brüssel NUTS-2-regions, 2008-2030: change of % of inhabitants with 65+ years of age (EUROSTAT 2010) 6 | 23. Mai 2014 | Sachsen-Verbindungsbüro Brüssel 3 Demografic Risk Map 2004-2030 Mapping the Regional Demographic Change Index © Rostocker Zentrum zur Erforschung des Demografischen Wandels 7 | 23. Mai 2014 | Sachsen-Verbindungsbüro Brüssel DCRN Demographic Change – Germany and Saxony Inhabitants 2009 2025 Change in 1.000 % Baden-Württemberg 10 740 10 640 -1,0 Bayern 12 512 12 594 0,7 Berlin 3 419 3 373 -2,0 Brandenburg 2 509 2 355 -6,2 Bremen 660 645 -2,5 Hamburg 1 778 1 853 4,4 Hessen 6 047 5 881 -3,0 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern 1 649 1 473 -10,8 Niedersachsen 7 920 7 546 -4,8 Nordrhein-Westfalen 17 870 17 112 -4,3 Rheinland-Pfalz 4 014 3 900 -2,8 Saarland 1 022 918 -10,2 Sachsen 4 165 3 778 -9,4 Sachsen-Anhalt 2 352 1 977 -16,1 Schleswig-Holstein 2 829 2 776 -2,0 Thüringen 2 244 1 934 -14,0 Quellen: Daten - Statistisches Landesamt des Freistaates Sachsen, Statistisches Bundesamt - 31.12.2009: Bevölkerungsfortschreibung; 2025: 12. koord. Bevölkerungsvorausberechnung, Variante 1-W1 (Wert für Sachsen entspricht der 5. Regionalisierten Bevölkerungsprognose für den Freistaat Sachsen bis 2025, Variante 1); Gebietsstand 01.01.10, Grafik - Sächsische Staatskanzlei, Ref. 35 8 | 23. Mai 2014 | Sachsen-Verbindungsbüro Brüssel 4 Germany & Free State of Saxony 2025 % of inhabitants with 80+ years of age 9 | 23. Mai 2014 | Sachsen-Verbindungsbüro Brüssel Sources: Stat. Bundesamt / Stat. Landesamt SN DCRN Demographic Change – Saxony Population Development in the Free State of Saxony 1990 until 2025 Sources: Grafik - Sächsische Staatskanzlei, Ref. 35 Daten - Statistisches Landesamt des Freistaates Sachsen - 1990-2011: 10 | 23. Mai 2014 | Sachsen-Verbindungsbüro Brüssel Bevölkerungsfortschreibung - jeweils zum 31.12.; 2012-2025: Daten aus der 5. Regionalisierten Bevölkerungsprognose für den Freistaat Sachsen 5 DCRN Demographic Change – Saxony Labour force potential is declining! Development of the labour force potential until compared with the year 2010 (2010 = 100 %) Sources: Grafik - Sächsische Staatskanzlei, Ref. 35 Daten - Statistisches Landesamt des Freistaates Sachsen - 1990-2011: Bevölkerungsfortschreibung - jeweils zum 31.12.; 2012-2025: Daten aus der 11 | 23. Mai 2014 | Sachsen-Verbindungsbüro Brüssel 5. Regionalisierten Bevölkerungsprognose für den Freistaat Sachsen DCRN Demographic Change – Saxony Births per Woman in the Free State of Saxony 1990 – 2011 Sources: *altersspezifische Geburtenziffern für Frauen im Alter von 15 bis unter 45 Grafik: Sächsische Staatskanzlei, Ref. 35 Jahren Daten: Statistisches Landesamt des Freistaates Sachsen Hinweis: ab 2008 altersspezifische Geburtenziffern für Frauen im Alter von 15 bis unter 50 Jahren 12 | 23. Mai 2014 | Sachsen-Verbindungsbüro Brüssel 6 DCRN Demographic Change – Saxony Projection of the Population Development until 2025 compared to 2011 (5th regional Population Developmet Projection, Variantion 1 Population 2011 2025 Change In 1.000 % KFS Chemnitz 243,2 221,1 -9,1 LK Erzgebirgskreis 363,7 307,3 -15,5 LK Mittelsachsen 324,9 277,5 -14,6 LK Vogtlandkreis 241,6 205,0 -15,2 LK Zwickau 338,3 288,5 -14,7 KFS Dresden 529,8 554,0 4,6 LK Bautzen 318,6 273,5 -14,2 LK Görlitz 273,5 232,1 -15,1 LK Meißen 251,3 223,9 -10,9 LK Sächsische 250,9 232,2 -7,5 Schweiz- Osterzgebirg e KFS Leipzig 531,8 538,6 1,3 LK Leipzig 265,3 241,8 -8,8 LK Nordsachsen 204,2 182,0 -10,8 Sources: Freistaat Sachsen 4.137,1 3.777,5 -8,7 Grafik - Sächsische Staatskanzlei, Ref. 35 Daten - Statistisches Landesamt des Freistaates Sachsen - 31.12.2011: Bevölkerungsfortschreibung; 2025: 5. Regionalisierte Bevölkerungsprognose für den Freistaat Sachsen bis 2025, Variante 1; 13 | 23. Mai 2014 | Sachsen-Verbindungsbüro Brüssel Gebietsstand 01.01.12 DCRN Demographic Change – Saxony Projection of the Population Development until 2025 in the municipalities (5th regional Population Developmet Projection, Variantion 2 Hoyerswerda Sources: Grafik - Sächsische Staatskanzlei, Ref. 35 Daten - Statistisches Landesamt des Freistaates Sachsen - 31.12.2011: Bevölkerungsfortschreibung; Gebietsstand 01.01.12; 2025: 5. Regionalisierte Bevölkerungsprognose für den Freistaat Sachsen bis 2025, Variante 2; Hinweis: Prognoseergebnisse werden nur für Gemeinden veröffentlicht, die am 31. Dezember 2008 mindestens 5 000 Einwohner hatten. 14 | 23. Mai 2014 | Sachsen-Verbindungsbüro Brüssel 7 DCRN Demographic Change – Trends and Facts in Saxony (+) • Since 2011 more people coming to Saxony than leaving (esp. to Dresden, Leipzig, Chemnitz, „education migrants“ [„Bildungswanderer“]) • Since 2010 highest brith-rate of all German „Länder“ (2011: 1,48 Geburten per woman) • Cities of Dresden und Leipzig growing (some of the surrounding suburbs are growing in places) • Population density right at the German average (D=229; Saxony=225) • Longer life in a healthy condition (-) • 2nd with regard to the average age of the population of the German „Länder“ (2011: 47 years) • Rural, peripheral areas regions are shrinkings and ageing relatively fast (border regions to Poland and the Czech Republic etc.) • Population decline esp. In rural areas and industrial areas in decline • Ageing of the people that are economically active (Problem of skilled labour force/ young professionals) 15 | 23. Mai 2014 | Sachsen-Verbindungsbüro Brüssel Development of Hoyerswerda - aerial photo comparison 1953 and 2002 1953 2002 Seidewinkel Seidewinkel Kühnicht Historic Town Center Kühnicht Historic Town Center 16 | 23. Mai 2014 | Sachsen-Verbindungsbüro Brüssel 8 History of the Town Development 1423 Town Charter WK 10 1986 - 90 Industrial Revolution at the end of the 19th - upswing (brown coal mining, glas industry and railway) WK 9 Kühnicht Grünewaldring 1973 - 75 1955 Start of the assembling of the the combine/collective power plant „Schwarze Pumpe“ (Black Pump) WK 8 1966 - 72 WK 1 1957 Laying of the foundation stone of 1957 - 64 the“Neustadt“ (New Town) on the WK 2 WK 3e Eastern Banks of the „Schwarze 1975 Elster“ River and start of the 1957 - 64 WK 3 1959 - 61 incorporation → controlled/steered Klein Zeißig immigration WK 4 Historic New Town Center 1961 - 64 Center 1968 - 95 1989/1990 The Turnaround - Start of a WK 5 WK 7 fundamental change of the econmic 1962 - 64 structures 1965 - 66 WK 5e 1962 - 75 WK 6 1964 - 65 17 | 23. Mai 2014 | Sachsen-Verbindungsbüro Brüssel Population Development with the current area of the municipality with prognosis until 2030 1980: The populations 74.481 has80.000 grown since 1957 through immigration 71.484 (400%70.000 increase) 62.908 60.595 1990:60.000 The migration sarts due to economic 50.203 reasons50.000 42.607 36.616 On 40.00031.12.2011 31.800 33.180 1998 last Incorporation inhabitants less 29.431 compared30.000 to 1990 are living in Hoyerswerda. 18.783 20.000 13.538 23.410 10.000 4.430 Prognose 0 Population in the current area of the municipality 5th regional Prognosis. Var. 1 Var. 2 Prognosis Bertelsmann-Foundation Whereas the decline of population in Saxony is mainly caused by a low birth rate, Hoyerswerda was hit by an „exodus“ since 1990. This „exodus“ is slowing down since 2003. The „birth deficit“ will level at -400 p.a. in Hoyerswerda. Quelle: Statistisches Landesamt des Freistaates Sachsen, 5. Regionalisierte Bevölkerungsprognose V1 und V2, Prognose Bertelsm ann-Stiftung 18 | 23. Mai 2014 | Sachsen-Verbindungsbüro Brüssel 9 General consideration of the goals of the deconstruction in the zonig plan of 2006 Deepening of the objectives of the deconstructin in the integrated urband development concept (INSEK) 2008 - Hoyerswerda New Town Almost complete deconstruction – planned realisation until 2020 WK 9 and WK 10 Extensive deconstruction – partly finished Connected parts of housing areas, (e. g. WK 8, New Town Center) Small scale deconstruction – finished provisionally Groups of houses (e.g. WK 4, 5e, WK 6, WK 7) Selective deconstruction – not finished Single houses (e.g. WK 3, WK 4, WK 5) 93,50 ha, which need to be unsealed The deconstruction is demand responsive. There is no statutory requirement for deconstruction. 19 | 23. Mai 2014 | Sachsen-Verbindungsbüro Brüssel Housing Units and Vacancies 100% •Stabilizing the Housing Market 4,9 % •Deconstruction with the goal to have an useful cityscape and5,7 % 6,0 % 6,3 % 95% improvement of the areas hit by deconstruction 8,3 % 10,1 % 11,4 % 90% •Strenghening of the historic city center and the areas that are worthy to be preserved 13,9 % 14,2 % 16,4 % 17,9 % 17,4 % 85% •Deconstruction projects18,3 % are processed in a close communication process with the large scale landlords and the public utilities providers – meeds constant updating. 80% •The current planned deconstruction process until 2020 includes 12.100 accomodation units. 75% 1990 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Vacancies 0 1.654 4.597 4.876 4.829 4.434 3.549 3.353 2.629 2.264 1.791 1.314 1.173 992 Total Housing Units 27.027 27.444 28.108 27.200 26.404 25.541 24.969 24.142 22.995 22.482 21.704 20.965 20.570 20.221 Empty Accommodation Units total Accommodation Units 20 | 23.