Export, Import, and Balance of Trade with China (2016–2018), Million USD

Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Central Asia’s Horticulture Sector Capitalizing on New Export Opportunities in Chinese and Russian Markets The World Bank Group © 2020 The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org Some rights reserved This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclu- sions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concern- ing the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. 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Table of Contents Table of Contents Acronyms ................................................................................................................................... vi Acknowledgements ................................................................................................................viii Key Findings ............................................................................................................................... ix Introduction ............................................................................................................................... xi 1. China 2030: Developments in the Fresh Fruit Import Market .............................................1 1.1. Market Overview .......................................................................................................................... 1 1.2. Opportunities and Constraints for Central Asian Fruit Exporters in the Chinese Markets .............................................................................................................. 10 2. Russia 2030: New Trends in the Central Asian Traditional Market ....................................11 2.1. Evolution of Russian Food Retail................................................................................................ 14 2.2. Central Asian Fruit in Russian Retail Markets: The Case of Table Grapes .............................. 20 2.3. Opportunities and Constraints for Central Asian Fruit Exporters in Russian Modern Retail Markets ............................................................................................. 25 3. Competitiveness of Central Asian Horticulture Exports ...................................................28 3.1. Country Findings: Kyrgyz Republic ............................................................................................ 28 3.2. Country Findings: Tajikistan ........................................................................................................ 38 3.3. Country Findings: Uzbekistan ................................................................................................... 44 3.4. Food E-Commerce in Central Asian Countries ....................................................................... 49 4. Success Story: Determinants of Chile’s Competitiveness in the Chinese Horticulture Markets ...................................................................................52 5. Policy Recommendations ..................................................................................................63 References ................................................................................................................................73 Annex 1. Agri-Food Trade Between Central Asia and China ..............................................77 Annex 2. Agri-Food Trade Between Central Asia and Russia ...............................................80 Annex 3. Export Competitiveness Analysis—Description of Methods .................................83 Annex 4. Chinese Fresh Fruit Import Requirements ...............................................................85 Annex 5. Russian Fresh Fruit Import Requirements ................................................................89 Annex 6. RCA Results ................................................................................................................91 Annex 7. DRC Results ................................................................................................................93 Annex 8. Retail Chain Product Requirements for Imported Fresh Fruit (Example of X5 Retail Group, Russia) ...............................................................................103 © 2020 The World Bank Group iii Central Asia’s Horticulture Sector — Capitalizing on New Export Opportunities in Chinese and Russian Markets List of Figures Figure 1.1. Fruit Consumption in China .............................................................................................. 1 Figure 1.2. Chinese Fruit Imports’ Growth .......................................................................................... 2 Figure 1.3. China’s Net Imports of Fresh Sweet Cherries and Plums ............................................... 3 Figure 1.4. Geography of Chinese Fresh Fruit Imports, by Country, 2017 ....................................... 4 Figure 1.5. Movement of Imported Fresh Produce in China ............................................................ 4 Figure 1.6. Wholesale Prices of Imported Cherries, Grapes and Plums in Guangzhou Jiangnan Market ................................................................................................ 9 Figure 2.1. Central Asian Fresh Fruit Exports to Russia ..................................................................... 11 Figure 2.2. Fresh Fruit Consumption Across Russian Regions .......................................................... 13 Figure 2.3. Projected Average Annual Growth in Russian Food Demand, 2017–2030 ................ 13 Figure 2.4. Evolution of Modern Food Retail in Russia .................................................................... 14 Figure 2.5. Increasing Concentration of Modern Food Retail in Russia, Number of Stores ........ 19 Figure 3.1. Export Potential of Kyrgyz Fresh Fruits ............................................................................ 30 Figure 3.2. Kyrgyz Export Geography for Apricots, Cherries and Plums, 2018 .............................. 31 Figure 3.3. Comparison of Kyrgyz Stone Fruit Yields to Main Comparator Countries, Tons/Ha, 2017 .............................................................................................................................. 35 Figure 3.4. A Quarter of All Apricots in the Kyrgyz Republic is Wasted.......................................... 36 Figure 3.5. Areas for Export-Related Public Support as Identified by Kyrgyz Fruit Exporters ....... 38 Figure 3.6. Export Potential of Tajik Fresh and Dried Fruits .............................................................. 39 Figure 3.7. Tajik Export Geography for Selected Fruits, 2017 .......................................................... 40 Figure 3.8. Stone Fruit and Table Grape Yields, 2018 ...................................................................... 41 Figure 3.9. Export Potential of Uzbek Fresh Fruits ............................................................................. 45 Figure 3.10. Uzbek Export Geography for Selected Fruits, 2017 .................................................... 46 Figure 4.1. Chilean Temperate Fruit Exports (HS 0806, 0808, 0809, and 0810) .............................. 52 Figure 4.2. Chilean Exports of Cherries, Grapes and Plums to China ........................................... 53 Figure 4.3. Share of Chilean Fruit in Total Chinese Fruit Imports, Percent ..................................... 54 Figure 4.4. Monthly Exports of Chilean Fruit ..................................................................................... 56 Figure 4.5. Agricultural Producer Support as a Share of the Aggregate Value of Agricultural Production ......................................................................................................... 58 Figure 4.6. General Services’ Support Expenditures ....................................................................... 59 Figure 4.7. General Services’ Support to Agriculture Relative to the Aggregate Value of Agricultural Production ......................................................................................................... 60 Figure 4.8. Chilean Public Institutions Involved in Export Promotion ............................................. 61 Figure 4.9. Unified Brand of Chilean Fruit ......................................................................................... 61 Figure A4.1. AQSIQ Fresh Fruit Market Access Procedure ............................................................

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