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Home , Abbas (actor), Biplab Kumar Deb, Conrad Sangma, Elections in Tripura, Gaurav Gogoi, Himanta Biswa Sarma

INDIA AND SOUTH ASIA: FEBRUARY 2018 DOSSIER

This Dossier is focusing on the election campaigns in , and and the results of these elections, besides current political developments and the formation of a new political party by the film

star in crisis-ridden . On foreign policy front, Modi’s visit to the Middle East is covered while on South Asia the focus is on the political crisis in Maldives.

The escalation of military confrontation between and , as well as the situation in Kashmir, will be covered in the March Dossier, besides major financial

scams and so-called Non-Performing Assets (NPAs).

Dr Klaus Julian Voll FEPS FEPS Advisor on Asia STUDIES FEBRUARY With Dr. Joyce Lobo 2018

Part I India - Domestic developments

• , Meghalaya and Nagaland

• Profile of the new CM of Meghalaya

• Current political developments

• Makka Neeidhi Maiyam (MNM)

Part II India - Foreign Policy Developments

• Modi’s Middle East Spree

• The Long Due visit from Tehran

• Trudeau’s Visit to India

Part III South Asia

• Mal‘dive’an Crisis

2 Part I India - Domestic developments

Dr. Klaus focusses on the elections to the norh-east of India and their results; the political developments; and the new political outfit of Kamal Haasan.

The fall of the communist bastion Tripura

Indian is since years in decline, although the CPI/M is ruling in and since 25 years in the small north-eastern state of Tripura.

Will the BJP with its systematic strategy in India's North East be in a position, to break the CPI/M fortress, where the communists are ruling since 1993.

Starting point and positions of strength

The CPI/M won in 2013 with altogether 52.32% of the votes 50 seats, whereas the with 44.60% 10 seats.

The BJP put up candidates in 50 constituencies and reached a meagre 1.4% in 2013. The BJP gained at that time even less votes than the Revolutionary Socialist Party (RSP) with only two candidates, but with 1.95% of the votes.

In the elections in 2014, the CPI/M extended its vote-share to 64%, whereas the Congress could garner only 15.2% and the BJP irrespective of the 'Modi-wave' only 5.7%.

The 'anti-incumbency'-factor

This factor plays an important role in voting out of governments.In West , the CPI/M could avoid this for 34 years and the BJP in is on the best way, to equalize this record. In other states, for instance in , there is a regular voting out of the government after one term. Till now the CPI/M could beat the „anti-incumbency“-factor, thanks to the high esteem of its , who is also a member of the CPI/M 'politbureau.

Important campaign topics

The allegedly „nervous“ CPI/M led its campaign under the motto 'Peace, harmony, a unified Tripura and development'. Unemployment, more or less a country-wide phenomenon, became a dominant topic, where the ruling CPI/M had to be defensive, given an estimated 725 000 unemployed. In december 2017, ten thousand contract teachers lost their jobs after a court order.

As a result of a lack of sufficient financial resources the state government was not in a position, to implement the „7th Pay Commission“. The state government sees the central government responsible for this.

Prakash Karat, member of the political bureau of the CPI/M and a former General Secretary, described this election as directional for the whole of India. He saw the elections as a battle between the CPI/M and the BJP, after many leaders and party workers from the Congress joined the BJP. „It is old wine in a new bottle. But I have no doubt, that the conscious voters of the state will again support the and build the eighth government under Manik Sarkar .”

Karat implied, „that the Indigenous People’s Front of Tripura (IPFT) is the mask of the insurgents. That

3 the BJP builds an alliance with such a party is high treason. They have built a conspiracy to stop the Left Front from coming back to power.“

Also Manik Sarkar pointed out, that the IPFT was founded by the extremists of the banned National Liberation Front of Tripura (NLFT), which demands the secessions from India.

Prakash Karat maintains, „that the is the most clean and for the interests of the population engaging government, trying to protect the harmony between the tribal and non- tribal inhabitants.“

The CPI/M put up candidates in 57 constituencies, in one constituency each its alliance partners Forward Bloc, RSP and (CPI) put up a candidate.

Votes of the 'Tribals' ('')

In Tripura there are 19 important 'tribal' groups, so the , , Rehang, Uchai, Halam, Mog, Tripuri, Chakma, Kuki, Khasia, Chainal, Garo, Munda, Lepcha, Orang, , Santal, Bhil and Lusai. Some of them can also be found in other states of the North East.

The CPI/M controlled all the 20 constituencies reserved for 'Tribals'. This time it was confronted by nine candidates from the IPFT and eleven by the BJP. The Jamatia Hoda, a strong organisation representing Jamatia-'tribe', also supported the BJP.

Altogether there are 20 reserved constituencies for Scheduled Tribes (ST's) and 10 for Scheduled Castes (SC's) in Tripura.

Congress in a dilemma

Before the Assembly elections in 2018, there have been numerous shifts from one party to another. Several MLA's, local politicians and about 12 000 party workers from the Congress crossed over to the BJP.

The Congress faced the dilemma, especially after the absolute low in public support during the Lok Sabha election in Tripura in 2014 and the exodus of its MLA's in 2016 first to the Trinamool Congress, who finally crossed over to the BJP in 2017, to become pulverized between the CPI/M and the BJP.

According to insiders, the Congress did not see the BJP but the CPI/M as its main rival. This can be connected to the recent decision by the central committee of the CPI/M, not to engage into any tactical alliance between the CPI/M and Congress against the BJP.

On the other side, relevant voices in the Tripura-Congress criticised, that in the past, the central Congress-leadership reacted soft vis-à-vis the CPI/M in Tripura as a quid pro quo at the central level and that it showed the least interest into the affairs of the far distant state.

The Congress is split into factions, also with resentments vis-à-vis the local leadership. The Congress- 'working President' is the titular King of Tripura, Maharaja Kirit Pradyot Deb Barman Manikya, who threatened in view of these conditions to resign from his position. Several members of the royal family are associated since decades with the Congress.

Deb Barman:“I want to fight against the communists. They have systematically destroyed the heritage and culture of the tribal inhabitants of the state. Economic development does barely exist, especially not for the 'Tribals', and the unemployment is high. Once upon a time, Tripura has been the most

4 developed state in the Northeast, now we are, because of the CPI/M-rule the most backward.“

Yet, the Congress is lacking organisational strength, in order to be present beyond the urban and semi-urban areas in rural Tripura.

The Congress attempted to forge an alliance with the 'Trinamool Congress' (TC), which has no significant presence in Tripura. But it brought the reputation with it, to have defeated the Left Front in . Besides, the majority of the population in Tripura are Bengalis.

But saw the lack of funds and „a traitor, who switched over to the BJP“ - a reference to the former TC-General Secretary , who was earlier responsible for Tripura - as a reason, that the TC could not adequately participate in these elections.

In view of all this, there was no tactical alliance between the Congress and the CPI/M, as it was the case during the last Assembly election in West Bengal and as alleged by the BJP. It seemed right from the start of the campaign, that the Congress could loose its status as the main challenger to the CPI/M.

In case, the communists would have narrowly missed a majority of seats, then it could have been possible, that the Congress could provide the necessary seats, in order to keep the BJP/IPFT at bay.

Systematic BJP-approach

The BJP gives far more attention to the Northeast – all important party leaders and cabinet ministers are regularly visiting all the states there – than the Congress.

The BJP – quite contrary to the Congress and the CPI/M – commands massive financial means, which is facilitating its work, so that the BJP might even succeed to become from zero the second strongest or even strongest party at least in Tripura, perhaps even in Maghalaya and in alliance in Nagaland.

The BJP claimed about two hundred thousand members, partly recruited through an 'On line'- campaign. The Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), being active since thirty years in Tripura, expanded its activities there. , responsible for Tripura, is a former RSS-'Pracharak' for the Northeast and was in 2014 campaign manager for Modi in his constituency in Varanasi and is a member of the National Executive Committee (NEC) of the BJP.

Sunil Deodhar also launched , the BJP-President in Tripura, who, in case of an electoral victory, could become the Chief Minister. But the BJP has not put up no official CM- candidate.

Ram Madhav, BJP-general secretary, is responsible for Jammu & Kashmir and especially for the Northeast and insofar a key figure.„The election in Tripura is for us a 'royal battle' in this election round. We firmly believe, that Tripura deserves better and the electorate has to throw out this government. Therefore we coined the slogan Chalo, paltai' ('Come, let us change').“

The BJP emphasized in this campaign especially unemployment – allegedly 725 000 people – corruption, the lowest salaries of government employees in the country and an increase on the minimum daily wage from 180 to 300 Rupees. : „The state in Tripura still implements the 4th Pay Commission. The BJP promises, in case it comes to power, that we will implement within 24 hours the 7th Pay Commission.- We engage with the socio-economic interests and complains of the tribal population, like represented by the IPFT and other groups. With regard to the political unity, all,

5 including the IPFT, will work for the territorial unity of Tripura.“

BJP-President – from the 11th till the 18th of February in Tripura - and , responsible for the BJP in the Norteast, minister in and the former righthand man of the then Congress-CM as well as the chairman of the North East Democratic Allaince (NEDA), approached as a part of the BJP-strategy actively members of the erstwhile royal family and even Deb Barman, even offering him a seat.

Communists in the defensive

The ruling Left Front alleged, that thousands of RSS- and BJP-cadres from Assam and other states poured recently into Tripura, in order to carry out possible „subversive activities“ before the elections. This was brought to the attention of the Chief Electoral Officer (CEO), who assured, that nobody would be allowed within or outside a polling station 48 hours before the election.

Election campaign of the CPI/M

Sitaram Yechury, CPI/M General Secretary, conceded, that after such a long period in power, the so- called „anti-incumbency“-factor could not be ruled out. But in his opinion, there was no real Alternative to the CPI/M for the electorate. „The Congress does not exist here anaymore. And the dividing politics of the BJP will throw them back here. I believe, that their alliance with the IPFT is counter-productive and will work against them.The IPFT has in an aggressive way pushed forward its platform for a separate state for the tribal population. The BJP is ambivalent in this regard and says, that they stand for social and linguistic improvement but not for a separate state.The electorate will see through this two-facedness.“

Yechury explained, that the Left was not concerned about the BJP in Tripura. He was of the opinion, „that the state government came to power through a struggle and a movement of the masses.The local voters are not easily to be influenced by money, threats and intimidations. The BJP has perfected the art, to form the government after lost elections like in and . But the government in Tripura is not subjected to patronage, it is a government of the people.“

Yechury referred to the successes of the Left Front, like the high 'Human Development Index', 97% literacy, the highest number of man-hours in the employment guarantee scheme MNREGA and the highest number of land rights ('Pattas') for the 'tribal population. 95% of the population receive health services in government hospitals, 100% ff irrigable land is irrigated.

According to CM Manik Sarkar, within the fifteen years the per-capita income grew eight times to 80 000 Rs. His government saw it as a great success, that in 2015 the Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA), could be removed.

The 69 years ol Manik Sarkar, stated: „BJP, RSS, VHP and have given strength to the left. We are proud, that they regard us as enemy and a threat. We are the exact opposite in ideology, politics, programmes and with the nature of our political struggle. This is not the first time that the engage with the RSS. They are since decades in Tripura, even as a young boy I heard about them. They tried it als during the time as Prime Minister of A. B. Vajpayee. They tried in the past to convert 'Tribals' and gain ground through religious rhetoric, but they failed.

6 On the contrary, what they do has helped us. We provide an alternative to the RSS ideology. We consider the current moment as a golden opportunity. For all, who say, that communism looses in nowadays world relevance, look what happens at the Jawaharlal Nehru University, the University and to the universities in Allahabad and . This is the proof, that we are more relevant as ever before, not only amongst the poor and the disadvantaged, but also amongst the élite and crème of society. If we would be irrelevant, why should we then create headaches for the BJP.

Election campaign of the BJP

The BJP entered on an optimistic note into this campaign. Biplab Deb, BJP-President in Tripura, said, that the party hoped to win 45 to 50 seats. He points out, that the Left Front won 30 seats with a margin of less than 3 000 votes and 18 with less than 1 800 in 2013.

According to him, the BJP-membership rose from 10 000 in 2017 to 450 000 in 2018, essentially through an online-campaign. In case of a BJP-victory, Biplab Deb is a contender for the office of CM. (Rabi Banerjee: A crumbling fortress. The Week, 4. 2. 2018, S. 48)

Narendra Modi, , Amit Shah und have been the most prominent BJP- politicians participating in the campaign in Tripura. All of them attacked CM Manik Sarkar – who, as India's 'poorest CM', enjoys a very good reputation because of his spartan life-style - and alleged political crimes and crimes against women, corruption, nepotism and false information.

PM Modi maintained, that the NDA has as the first government initiated comprehensive and multi- layered steps for the development of the entire Northeast. This is evidence of numerous visits of ministers and officials. The DoNER (Development of North Eastern Region)-secretariat functions according to Modi for the first time in all the eight states in the Northeast.

„The modern and developed Tripura, dreamed by the last Tripura-king Bir Bikram Kishore Manikya, has been destroyed by the left parties and it is high time, that the people exercise ‘Chalo Paltai’ (Go' for change').“

Modi promised also, that the BJP, once in power, would implement the recommendations of the 7th Pay Commission for the 150 000 state employees. They, particularly if discontent, are important opinion builders within society.

Modi: „The BJP-government would along the three cardinal principles of 'trade, tourism and vocational training' for the youth work, which will open the gate for self-employment.“

Modi accused the government, „to support the notorious 'chit fund'-organisations by looting the population and to develop the state into backwardness. Poverty increased and backwardness expanded.“

Modi criticised also CM Manik Sarkar: „Below his white 'Kurta' appears a dark side. His government cheated the population through the payment of low wages, whereas in other parts of the country the population is receiving higher wages and the government employees higher salaries. - In the last 25 years, the left parties hypnotised the population. The people could not understand how backward they are. Now, the time has come, to change the future of the state and the welfare of the people.

Out of 100 rupees, which are spent in Tripura, the central government gives 80. The Manik Sarkar- government is incapable, to spend adequately the central funds. The Left Front also loots the money

7 of the poor. If they continue to rule, then there will be no development. People commit suicide in Tripura. The youth do not get jobs. The time has come to throw out the left parties.“

Modi said, that a BJP-government would advocate 'HIRA', e. g. 'H' for highwas, 'I' for Internet, 'R' for roads and 'A' for airways. „We want to bring a transformation through transport. We need good roads, highways, railways and air connections for the development of the state. Therefore we bring to You 'HIRA'.“

Smriti Irani, Minister for Textiles and for Information and Broadcasting, alleged, „that the poor in Tripura have become poorer. Women don't feel any more secure under the left rule. What concerns me most is the high number of crimes against women. My sisters and mothers don't receive justice, because law and order have broken down.The government has no moral right to remain even for a minute longer in power. The wages here are very low, which shows that the government does not care for the working people.“ -

The BJP distanced itself from the accusation by the CPI/M, that she allegedly through her alliance with the Indigeneous People's Front of Tripura (IPFT), which demands a separate state Twipraland, implicitly would also advocate this. The alliance is limited to the 28 seats in the area of the Autonomous District Council (ADC) and is based on a common minimum programme. Altogether, the BJP has put up 51 candidates and the IPFT 9. Yet, Naren Chandra Debabarma, leader of the IPFT, opined, „we will dissolve the alliance, if the BJP does not concede to us a separate state.“

The CPI/M alleged, that the IPFT is the political front of the National Liberation Front of Tripura (NLFT), which, as a militant organisation decides the political agenda of the IPTF.

The chairman of the North East Democratic Alliance, Himanta Biswa Sarma, assured, that the BJP would never support a division of the state. „The alliance between the BJP and the IPFT is limited to the socio-economic, linguistic and cultural demands of the local population. We believe in a united Tripura. Our joint declaration has nothing to do with the demand for a separate state..“

A high-ranking inter-ministerial committee under the leadership of the Home Ministry explores since January 2018 these demands and will soon present a report. “The real proletariat in Tripura is the indegeneous population, which was never on the developmental radar of the state“, so the joint declaration.

Himanta Biswa Sarma expected a victory of his party. „A victory over the Left Front is ideologically very important, in order to bring this message from Tripura to Kerala. Tripura will be the launch pad, in order to achieve a CPI/M liberated India ('Bharat'). After our victory in Tripura, we will do the same in Kerala.“

Perspectives

Numerically, it seemed to be nearly impossible, that the BJP could overcome the difference in votes to the CPI/M on the basis of the 2013 and 2014 elections. But in the local elections in 2015, the BJP gained 14.7%. But since the BJP absorbed a large part of Congress workers and voters and that the Congress could get pulverized between the mill-stones of the CPI/M and the BJP in a two-front struggle, another scenario was very much possible.

How far the BJP in Tripura with its 3.5 million inhabitants – 69% Bengalis and 31% 'Tribals' – was reaching out for reasons of electoral arithmetics, can be recognized, that the party wooed the

8 approximately 350 000 Muslims. Altogether, the BJP has in the meantime 10 000 citizens of Muslim belief in Tripura in its ranks.

The countrywide rise of the BJP since 1989 – irrespective of all its ''-rhetoric – can be traced back essentially to its successes in constituencies reserved for ST's and SC's, thanks to the social work of the RSS and its front organisations there. Could this be repeated in Tripura with its altogether 30 reserved constituencies? If this happened, also recognizable amongst Bengali – the BJP played on the keyboard of promises and envy, particularly with regard to the salaries of government employees – it could lead to a very narrow outcome if not even a BJP/IPFT surprise victory.

In the past, the fragmentation of votes favoured the CPI/M, which could win 18 out of the 20 reserved ST-constituencies. Nevertheless, the communists won 7 of these seats with a margin of less than 2000 votes in 2013.

Therefore the BJP/IPFT-alliance could hope for a better performance. But the alliance between the Indigeneous Nationalist Party of Tripura (INPT) and the National Conference of Tripura (NCT), which have put up candidates in 14 reserved constituencies, could have potentially spoilt its chances. In the District Council elections in 2015, the CPI/M won a clear majority, but it lost 10% of the votes.

It remained to be seen, how far the discontent and anger – for instance about the big increase in unemployment and corruption – amongst sections of society, also with regard to the authoritarian leadership style of the CPI/M, would have an effect in favour of the BJP on election day. The BJP hoped to consolidate the votes against the Left Front.

Absolute majority of the BJP in Tripura

The BJP succeeded, thanks to its excellent cadres - practically from 1.5% in 2013 to 42% in 2018 – a tremendous sensation. The alliance with the 'tibal' IPFT paid dividends. The youth voted to a very large degree for the BJP.

The CPI/M was clearly voted out. Although still with a rather good vote share, the party got only 16 seats and lost altogether 33 mandates.

The Congress, till now the leading opposition party, got completely pulverized. The party with now less than 2% vote share in Tripura, lost the will to fight and did not win a single seat.

After this 'tectonic shift' the BJP wants now to use this 'Tripura-effect' in West Bengal and above all in the communist ruled Kerala. This victory could be the beginning of the political end of India's communists. BJP-general secretary Ram Madhav, one of the major strategists of his party in the North East, spoke of „a historic and revolutionary vote“.

Tripura Assembly Elections: 2013 & 2018

Alliance/Party 2013 2018

BJP 00 1.54* 35 43.0

IPFT 00 0.46 08 7.5

CPI(M) 49 48.11 16 42.7

CPI 01 1.57 00 0.8

9 INC 10 36.53 00 1.8

Total 60 59**

*BJP without alliance ** Result awaited for one seat Major parties in Tripura:

INC,

Communist Party Of India

Communist Party Of India (Marxist)

IND, Independents

IPFT, Front of Tripura

Congress loss in Meghalaya

The predominantly Christian Meghalaya – also known as the „Scotland of the Northeast“ – is a traditional bastion of the Congress, irrespective of a relatively high number of local parties.

The opposition to the Congress manifests itself by ethnic parties. Till now, the BJP did not play any worthwhile role in Maghalaya.

How much party loyalty is exchangeable in Meghalaya was demonstrated by the fact, that 21 of the 60 MLA's in the Legislative Assembly laid down their mandates before the end of the current legislature, in order to put up a candidature for other parties.

Balance sheet and prospects of the Congress

The Congress, led by Chief Minister Mukhul Sangma had the reputation to have led a fairly corrupt regime. Irrespective of this, Sangma, a candidate in two constituencies, was optimistic and highlighted the political stability during his regime.

The Meghalaya Pradesh Congress Committee (MPCC) reacted to the recent statement by the President of the National People's Party (NPP), Wanwei Roy Kharlukhi, who did not rule out an alliance with the Congress after the election, to end before its ties with the NDA and NEDA, since otherwise the NPP would have the reputation, „to be a 'proxy-party' of the BJP.“

Wanwei Roy Kharlukhi said: „The local Congress is our adversary. If there is a necessity, then we don't rule out an alliance in future. But we will not work together here with anyone, since we are sure to achieve an own absolute majority and have not to work with anyone together.“

Ronnie V. Lyngdoh, Congress-minister for urban development, insinuated, that the NPP would like to convey the impression of fighting against the BJP, in order to mislead the voters. „If they are so serious about it, why don't they end the ties with the NDA and NEDA, instead of projecting vehemently as the next Prime Minister after the Lok Sabha elections in 2019. It is known to everyone, that the BJP, before it nominated its candidates, called the NPP-leaders from the Jaintia-

10 and Garo-hills to , in order to deliberate where and how to put up candidates.“

Congress-President showed confidence during his two-days visit in Meghalaya – especially after the victories in the by-polls in , but also because of the general discontent in the country – that his party could retain power. „I think we will perform good and win the election in Meghalaya.“

Gandhi interacted with various religious leaders – Christians, Hindus, Muslims, Sikhs and followers of indigenous faiths, as well as traditional Chiefs and academicians.

Strategy and tactics of the BJP

The BJP was not represented in the outgoing Assembly. Tourism-minister in the central government, K. J. Alphons, a Christian from Kerala, was in charge for the Assembly election.

The BJP accomodated Congress- and Nationalist Congress Party-dissidents as its own candidates, which led to the desertion of own members to the NPP, like Violet Lyngdoh, a member of the Jaintia Hills Autonomous District Council, who now competed for the NPP against the former Parliamentary Secretary Justine Dkhar, who resigned from the Congress and now the NPP candidate.

The role of the National People’s Party (NPP)

The National People's Party was founded by the former Congress-CM P. A. Sangma in the hope to become a major political force in the entire Northeast with its nearly 30 million population. P. A. Sangma, who died in 2017, was also a former Union-Minister of the Congress and , before he left the Congress and joined the financially strong Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), led by . But the NPP mainly succeeded only in Meghalaya.

Nowadays, the NPP is led by P. A. Sangma's son (see Profile). He succeeded, that 8 Congress-MLA's crossed over to his party. The NPP, part of the NDA at the central level and of the regional North Eastern Democratic Alliance (NEDA), feared collateral damage if it aligned too closely with the BJP.

The NPP accused the Congress, not to raise topical issues., after CM Mukul Sangma „accused the tribal-centric party as financed by the BJP“.

“We are an independent party and we have our own ideology. I find it ridiculous, when the President of the Congress-women's organisation, (Lok Sabha MP), maintains, that the NPP is the BJP during the elections“, so the Meghalaya NPP-President Wanwei Roy Kharlukhi in a conversation with journalists.

Kharlukhi accused the Congress to have failed in the development of the state and quoted from a report, according to which Meghalaya allegedly ranks in various sectors in the last position. „Generally, Meghalaya ranks in the tenth position amongst the ten smaller states, which perform all better than Meghalaya. - Shillong was once an educational center of the Northeast, today it renks ninth in education. Infrastructure, the basis of the economy ranks tenth. Therefore we have no problem to make this public and they throw up petty questions like 'BJP is NPP and NPP is BJP.“

Religion as a controversy?

Rahul Gandhi accused the BJP, to have offered allegedly money before the elections - obviously he

11 referred to a package of 70 crore Rupees, announced by Tourism-Minister K. J. Alphons in early Januar 2018, for the development of religious and sprititual voyages – which was rejected by BJP- President Shibun Lyngdoh. „Instead of presenting a performance card of the Congress-led state government, Rahul Gandhi uses the election platform to misguide the population of Meghalaya. The BJP trusts the liberty of the population to vote for development.“

As well the Presbyterian as also the Catholic church have been wondering about the offer of the tourism minister.

The former Congress minister Alexander Laloo Hek,who is this time a BJP candidate, said “The money does not come from party funds but from the ‘Swadesh Darshan’-programme of the central government. The church in Meghalaya does not play a role in politics and church leaders will never support a party or an individual.“

Leaders of different Christian denominations expressed their big concerns about the widespread insecurity amongst Christian minorities country-wide, after the recent attacks on religious and educational institutions. „We expressed our concern about the insecurity of the community because of incidents against minorities in some parts of the country. The need of the hour is, that we march together, grow and mutually respect each other“, so Bishop Michael of the Church of North India.

The representative of the Unitarian Church, D. K. B. Mukhim, mentioned, that the discussion with Rahul Gandhi referred to 'the unity in diversity' in India. “India is a secular and pluralistic society and we work with everybody together, who advocates security and communal harmony, like Rahul Gandhi emphasized inclusivity as a principle of his party.“

Gandhi himself said after his meeting with religious leaders, that fear and unease exist within the population because of the imposition „of one single idea“, whereas church leaders and other groups believed, that India consists of millions of perspectives and that the imposition of a single perspective is wrong. „There is an attack on the prevailing culture in Meghalaya, the Northeast and across the country through the imposition of a single idea by the BJP and the RSS.“

Meghalaya: NPP-led coalition government

The Congress could with 21 seats narrowly maintain its position as the strongest party, followed by the National People's Party (NPP) with 19. Yet, the loss of seven mandates made the formation of a government under its leadership impossible.

In view of a so-called 'hung Parliament', various state parties, which had predominantly campaigned against the Congress, decided to go with the NPP and the BJP – with only two MLA's - along with a number of independent MLA's. The financial suction of the central government with its funds might have been finally decisive.

The NPP is part of the NDA and it is very much possible, that this can be a stable government. It is also very much possible, that this new formation can lead to the break-up of the Congress.

Meghalaya Assembly Elections: 2013 & 2018

Alliance/Party 2013 2018

12 INC 29 34.78 21

NPP 02 8.81 19

BJP 00 1.27 02

Others 29 52.3** 18

Total 60 60

*Others include both independent candidates and candidates from other political parties (GNC, HSPDP, NCP, NESDP, and UDP)

**Independents had 27.69% vote share.

Major parties in Meghalaya:

GNC, Garo National Council

HSPDP, Hill State People’s Democratic Party IND, Independent

INC, Indian National Congress

NPP, National People's Party

BJP. Bharatiya

NCP, Nationalist Congress Party

NESDP, North East Social Democratic Party

UDP, United Democratic Party

Nagaland: From boycott to participation

The developments during the last weeks saw a dramatic turn from an election boycott to the participation of all parties in the elections in Nagaland.

Call for an election boycott

An influential Civil society in the true sense of the word does exist in Nagaland. Several of these groups – so the Naga National Political Groups (NNPGs) - and the 'Naga tribal Hohos' called end of January 2018 for a boycott of the Assembly Elections scheduled for the 27th of February 2018, after the Core Committee of Nagaland Tribal Hohos and Civil Organisations (CCNTHCO) in consultations on the 25th and 27th of January appealed to all parties, not to participate in the elections, as long as no 'solution' of the Naga-question has been achieved.

CCNTHCO gave the call 'Solution before elections'. They also argued, that the negotiations have been in an advanced stage.

Already on the 14th of December 2017, the Assembly of Nagaland adopted a resolution, appealing to the central government, „to initiate fresh and extraordinary steps for an honourable and acceptable

13 solution“ of the Naga-question.-

The following resolution was signed by 11 parties, including the Congress and the BJP: „We firmly believe, that it is advisable for all parties - national as well as regional – in the greater interest of the state in solidarity with the call 'solution before elections' to come together and to postpone the elections, in order to permit the political process of the Naga-question its logical conclusion in space and time for the negotiating groups to reach soon a solution.“

Already on the 25th of January, Rh Raising, a leading member of the National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN-Isak-Muivah), declared in its headquarters in Hebron: „Elections are the anti-thesis of a solution. Solution deals about the future of the Nagas, whereas elections are about the Indian Constitution.“

Already in 1998, the Nationalist Socialist Coucil of Nagaland (IM) and the Naga Hohos called for an election boycott, which allowed then the Congress to win 53 of the 60 mandates, since other parties followed the boycott call.

U-turn

This time, it should not last long, till the political consensus ended. Obviously under pressure from the BJP headquarters in Delhi, which suspended its local signatories of the resolution till further notice, the BJP did do a complete turn-around and nominated 20 candidates.

Union Minister , on behalf of the BJP responsible for the election in Nagaland, appealed to the population, to participate in the elections and assured, that the central government, as soon as it would be decided, would implement the solution. “The central government is sensitive with regard to the popular sentiments of the Naga population and committed to a forthcoming solution.“

Prospects of parties

Shortly before the nomination of the candidates, the BJP ended its 15 years alliance with the Naga People's Front (NPF) and entered into an alliance with the newly founded 'Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party (NDPP) of the former Chief Minister .

The NPP accused the BJP of 'betrayal'. NPF-President Shurhozelie Liezietsu: „We have been in the process of discussions about the distribution of seats, when the BJP suddenly announced its alliance with the NDPP. The BJP has betrayed us. This chapter is now closed and we will put up candidates in 60 constituencies.“

Kiren Rijiju: „We are confident to win the elections and to form the next government in Nagaland.“

The NPP assumed, that the NDPP/BJP-alliance would not affect its prospects. Liezietsu: „The NPP is the only party in Nagaland, which possesses an established network at the 'grassroots'-level. The NDPP is very new. I do not know, if they are registered and recognized.“

Within the BJP in Nagaland there have been voices, stating, „that the seat distribution could have negative repercussions for the BJP in Nagaland“. Rijiju underlined, that the BJP would further like to entertain friendly relations with the NPP.

The Congress was visibly surprised by these developments in Nagaland and could finally put up only 18 candidates. Most probably, this was also an expression of a country-wide organisationally weak

14 party.

Gaurav Gogoi, Congress Lok Sabha MP and son of the former long-term CM of Assam,Tarun Gogoi, pointed out, that the party believed till the 6th of February, that the party consensus would last. The last day for nominations was the 7th of February.

Gogoi referred to this short time and conceded a lack of funds of the Congress, compared to the BJP. But Gogoi maintained: „But we are confident, that the voters will follow the call of the Church for a clean campaign, so that money will not be the decisive factor.

We don't say, that we will form with any party an alliance after the elections. But we hope, that the campaign will appeal to the consciousness of various parties. We have to understand, that in this election the protection of the unique identity and culture of Nagaland is at stake against the of the BJP and the RSS.“

Gaurav Gogoi assumed, „that the rise of the BJP in the Northeast is only temporary in nature, because of its homogeneous ideology, which does not permit the different cultures and habits of the Northeast.“

Gogoi criticised, that the contents of the so-called „Naga-Framework Agreement“ between the central government and the NSCN(IM) are not known till date.

It is interesting, that in the 54 years of its existence, not a single woman has been elected into the Assembly of Nagaland. This time, out of 195 candidates five are women.

Campaign topics

Shurhozelie Liezietsu, Naga People’s Front (NPF), warned the Naga-population, not to play with its belief, culture and identity. The former Chief Minister of Nagaland accused the NDPP for its alliance with the BJP and that this party could set foot in Nagaland and could harass the Nagas. “The NDPP entered into a marriage with the BJP and offered 20 seats and is in the process to give birth to the BJP in our land.“ He referred to the fact, that the NPF has been for more than 14 years in an alliance with the BJP, but never encouraged it to set up shop in Nagaland. He opined, that in this election many Naga-leaders and their voters would in the search for money negotiate their identity and belief. „God must weep, when Naga-leaders are selling their rights and the liberty of the Naga people for pure greed for power and money“ But Liezietsu assumed, that the NPF would form the next government with an absolute majority

Neiphiu Rio, Nagaland’s sole Lok Sabha MP, originally elected for the NPF and a three times CM, resigned from his mandate on the 16th of February 2018, after he had been elected unopposed as the first member of the new Assembly. After resigning from the NPF, he was the declared candidate for the office of the Chief Minister by the Nagaland Democratic People’s Party and the BJP.

Rio also believed, that the NDPP/BJP-alliance would win an absolute majority. He promised a good and systematically answerable government, together with transparency and infrastructure development. „Better changes will come. Prime Mminister is a dynamic leader. His development programmes will take place in Nagaland, there is a long-felt demand by the population. Unfortunately, nothing has been achieved during the last four years by the CM TR Zeliang.“

As a reaction to the accusations by the NPF, Rio assured, that the Nagas would remain Christians.

15 „The choice is between a progressive NDPP/BJP-alliance and a corrupt and instable NPF-government.

Leadership should be visionary, strong and keep its promises to the population. Zeliang's leadership is without vision, he leads from behind instead from the front. We will not join the BJP. But we must maintain a good relationship with the central government, so that we can accelerate the peace process and push forward the development agenda of the central government for the welfare of our people, also through empowering our youth and the rural population.

We have not allied with the BJP, in order to convert, but in order to protect our rights of the article 371 A , therefore our relationship with the central government is very important.

Article 25-28 of the Indian Constitution guaranties secularism and the freedom of religion for all citizens and therefore nobody has to fear anything, since it is our constitutional right to follow the belief of our choice. We are Christians and there is no compromise in this regard.“

Narrow victory of the NDPP-BJP alliance

The 'boycott-campaign' by the National Socialist Council of Nagaland did not function. Voter turnout was 75%. The state requires stability, als with regard to the 'Framework Agreement' of 2015 between the central agreement and the NSCN(IM), whose true contents are not yet known. It is supposed to lead to a solution with a maximum autonomy within the Indian Union.

The extremely narrow victory of the Naga Democratic Progressive Party under the leadership of Neiphiu Rio , formed by dissidents of the NPF, and the BJP will lead to a government formation. The BJP certainly gained from the alliance with the NDPP, gaining a remarkable 12 seats - this in a state with 88% Christian population - while the NDPP won 16.

But still the government formation is somewhat unclear. TR Zeliang, the outgoing CM, invited the BJP into a coalition with the NPF without the NDPP. Especially in Nagaland there is a great danger of a so- called 'horse trading', that means literally to buy the support of MLA's.

It cannot be ruled out, that there could be a unity government of all the three major parties – the United with one seat and an independent MLA are also represented – without any opposition.

But currently it looks like, that Neiphiu Rio – who gives a very sober impression in interviews - will be sworn in as the new CM for a fourth time in his political career.

Nagaland: Assembly Elections: 2013 & 2018

Alliance/Party 2013 2018

NPF 38 47.04 29

BJP 01 1.75* 12

16 NDPP 17

IND 08 17.75 01

INC 08 24.89 00

Others** 05 7.70 01

Total 60 60

*BJP in 2013 without alliance

** Other parties JD(U) and NCP in 2013 and only JD(U) in 2018

Major parties in 2013 and 2018:

BJP,

INC, Indian National Congress

IND, Independent

JD(U), Janata Dal (United)

NCP, Nationalist Congress Party

NDPP, Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party

NPF, Naga Peoples Front

Perspectives

The Indian North East – with the exception of , the Congress still governs there, and – is now fully saffronised. The BJP has replaced the Congress as the leading political force.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi, whose government focused systematically since 2014 on the North East, emphasized in his victory speech, that India cannot prosper without development in the North East.

The strength of the BJP in alliance with regional parties there is from the perspective of the BJP an additional driving force in the pursuit of the 'Act East Policy' vis-à-vis the ASEAN-countries. One should not forget, that Hanoi, Bangkok and Vientiane, as seen from Assam, are closer than .

This good performance of the BJP, in alliance with its partners in the North East Democratic Alliance (NEDA), gives it a good chance, to win numerous if not all the 25 mandates in the forth-coming Lokh

17 Sabha elections in 2019 in the North East.

Subhir Bhowmik, a leading North East expert, opines, that the BJP with this presence there has now the chance, „to transform the narrow Hindutva into an inclusive nationalism.“

Conrad Sangma: Meghalaya's new Chief Minister

Born on January 27, 1978 at Tura in the West Garo Hills in Meghalaya, Conrad Sangma hails from an illustrious family of politicians. He has studied at the Imperial College (University of ) and at the University of Pennsylvania.

His father P. A. Sangma was a well known political figure in India and a Speaker of the Lok Sabha. Before, he headed several Union ministeries for the Congress and was Chief Minister of Maghalaya.

Conrad Sangma joined the political field in the 1990s as a campaign manager to his father. In 2008, Conrad Sangma became a Member of the Legislative Assembly (MLA) of Meghalaya, contesting from the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP). During this time, he held several portfolios like Finance, Power, Tourism etc. He also became the Leader of Opposition between 2009 and 2013. In 2016, he won the bye-elections to the Tura Lok Sabha constituency.

In 2013, Sangma’s father created a new party, called the National People’s Party (NPP). The NPP joined the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led alliance called the North East Democratic Alliance in 2014 and is also an alliance partner of the ruling BJP in Manipur.

However, Conrad Sangma's NPP contested the elections alone, while not ruling out the possibility of stitching a post poll alliance with the BJP and other regional parties, as he has done within two days after the verdict. The decision to contest the elections alone has also been attributed to his distancing from the Hindutva agenda of the BJP, since Meghalaya is dominated by Christians with 74.59%.

His ambition to become Chief Minister of Meghalaya will become true with taking oath at the helm of a coalition with regional parties, the BJP with its two mandates and independent MLA's on the 6th of March 2018.

Current political developments

BJP-defeats

The BJP lost clearly in two Lok Sabha by-elections and one Assembly Election – Ajmer and Alwar - in Rajasthan. The Congress led in all Assembly sections with a big swing in its favour. In case this trend would continue, then the Congress has good chances to come back to power in the forthcoming Assembly elections at the end of the year.

The leadership of the young and dynamic Sachin Pilot, a former cabinet minister under Dr. , and the systematic work during the last years, also together with the former CM , led to this success.

Rajasthan developed during the last years increasingly into 'a laboratory of the Hindutva forces', so the journalist Swati Chaturvedi. Irrespective of the tremendous personal engagement of Chief

18 Minister Vasundara Raje and many of her cabinet ministers, it led to this massive defeat of the BJP, as well in the rural and urban segments.

The very moderate BJP-spokesman Dr. Aijaz Ilmi conceded a big swing in favour of the Congress and opined, that the BJP would scrutinize the reasons, also why substantial numbers of Brahmins and Rajputes deserted the party.

The experienced journalist Arati Jerath described this victory as a big boost for the Congress. „But the Congress should soon answer the question of its candidate for the office of the Chief Minister, given the increasing presidential structure of Assembly elections. The politics of polarisation of the BJP leads only to a very limited dividend.“-

In West Bengal, the Trinamool Congress won convincingly in two by-elections to the Assembly with big margins. But the BJP established itself as the second force ahead of the CPI/M. The Congress – considered by the electorate „as the B-Team of the Trinamool Congress“ - landed in a distant fourth position.

New book of P. Chidambaran

The former home and and finance minister P. Chidambaran presented his new book 'Speaking Truth to Power'. He criticised, that parts of the media have become soft vis-à-vis the government. The experienced journalist Shekhar Gupta called the Congress „a lazy party while in opposition. The opposition has to provide to the media contents and materials.“

Dr. Shashi Tharoor, Congress-Lok Sabha MP conceded, „we should be more active in the streets.“ Montek Singh Ahluwalia, a former Deputy Chairman of the now dissolved Planning Commission, underligned „the necessity for better debates.“

Shekhar Gupta observed, „that the opposition is not adding its strength. A joined agenda is required, otherwise the opposition is helping Modi.“ Chidambaran referred to the fact, that besides the Congress and the BJP all the other parties are existing only in one state. „In seven states, only the BJP and the Congress are confronting each other. In the other states the state parties are stronger than the Congress.“

Chidambaran pointed out, „that the Congress would have nearly formed the government in Gujarat. Do not write off the Congress, wait for the results of the by-elections in Rajasthan (see above) and in .“ -

The discussion about the proposal to have country-wide simultaneous Lok Sabha- and Assembly- elections, initiated by President Ram Nath Kovind and PM Narendra Modi, would require a constitutional amendment, according to Chidambaran. „One nation, one poll is a 'jumla'.

The NDTV-moderator spoke about the unclear numbers of unemployment and opined, that the number of working people in agriculture cannot be really measured „contrary to the workers outside of agriculture. The recent 'Economic Survey' underlines with its focus on 'employment, education and agriculture' the central importance of these areas and also, that employment is the biggest issue for the population.“

Dr. Shashi Tharoor opined, „that the Congress and the other opposition parties should ask the

19 constant question, are You better off than in 2014. We have to to formulate a strong economic narrative, politics will follow suit.The 'Right to Information' has been hollowed out by the government. In order to thwart religious fanaticism we should ask, do You have a better life. We should leave it to the BJP, to define .“-

National Forum

Yashwant Sinha, the former Foreign- and Finance-Minister of the BJP, launched on the 30th of January 2018 the 'Rashtriya Manch' ('National Forum'), a platform, which regards itself as an alternative to the Modi-government and is open for politicians from all parties and members of cicil society.

An important promoter of this platform is , Lok Sabha MP of the Trinamool Congress. Another important politician is Shatugran Sinha, Lok Sabha MP of the BJP, AAP- and Congress- politicians etc. Also Pawan Varma from the Janata Dal United (JDU) participated in the first public meeting of the 'Rashtriya Manch' . -

Party financing

The financial support for political parties is perhaps the darkest chapter of the Indian 'plutocratic' democracy. According to J. S. Chhekar from the Association for Democratic Reforms, 89% of the financial support by enterprises are going to the BJP. In 2016/17, the BJP received 290 crores, the Congress 16.5 and other parties 18.5 crores. Through so-called 'electoral bonds' the companies remain with their donations anonymous. -

Arun Shourie about Mahatma Gandhi today

At the 70th death anniversary of Mahatma Gandhi, the former BJP-union minister and Modi-critic Arun Shourie, said „that Mahatma Gandhi would not recognize the current India, because it has nothing in common with his teachings. Untruth after untruth is spread and all is done, to divide the people. The Prime Minister talks and talks, but what are he and his colleague really doing?“

In response to the remark by the India Today TV-moderator , „that violence is the new credo and that the political system is crumbling“, Shourie opined: „The parliamentary democracy exists only in name. The Election Commission has become an instrument of the ruling regime. The cow has become an instrument of dominance. The 'Karni Sena' defines the standard of discussions. We move to a 'Hindu Pakistan'. We find ourselves in a strategic stranglehold. The name of Mahatma Gandhi is only used for purposes of event management.“

Makka Neeidhi Maiyam

The Tamilian Superstar Kamal Haasan founded on the 21st of February 2018 in Madurai, 'the political capital of Tamil Nadu', the new party Makka Neeidhi Maiyam (MNM, 'Justice Forum of the people').

Kamal Haasan, undoubtedly with a great charisma, emphasized in the presence of Delhi Chief Minister , „that the MNM is a party for the population. I am not a leader. It is not for one day, it is a long-term goal. We are confronted with atrocities and corruption in Tamil Nadu. There is a need to stop caste- and religious politics. Don't sell Your votes. Our party logo shows the map of South India.“

20 Kamal Haasan started the day with a visit to the memorial site and the home of the popular former President of India, Dr. Abdul Kalam, in Rameshwaram, where he also met delegations of fishermen.

After the death of former Chief Minister Jayalalitha, there is a visible political vacuum in Tamil Nadu and it cannot be ruled out at all, that such a 'political start-up' - the Superstar also plans his own party – can shake the current power equations.

During the next weeks, the orientation , aims and politics of the MNM might become clearer. Tamil Nadu has a long history of film stars in politics – so the legendary MGR (M. G. Ramachadran) and his former mistress Jayalalitha. Haasan gives in interviews a fairly rational impression and wants to dedicate himself in future exclusively to politics.

21 Part II India - Foreign Policy Developments

Dr. Joyce Lobo looks into the relations between India and the Middle East through the high level exchanges that have taken place in the month of February. She writes on the Trudeau visit that borders on some unpleasantness.

Modi’s Middle East Spree

Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Palestine, the UAE, Oman and also Jordan as part of the transit visit from February 10-12.

The King of Jordan, Abdullah II, has been exceptionally kind and courteous to Modi by making a special effort in receiving him at his royal residence and then offering his helicopter for travelling to Palestine. This visit has a speciality in the sense that Modi becomes the first premier after since 1988 to visit the royal kingdom. The King is scheduled to meet Modi for bilateral talks on March 01 in India.

Modi visited Palestine for the first time and met his counterpart President Mahmoud Abbas. Abbas had visited India in May 2017. Modi was awarded the highest civilian honour — Grand Collar of the State of Palestine - on February 10. Abbas gave an account of the developments in the state, about the peace process and the hopes of the people. About 6 MoUs were signed, which amount to about US$ 40 million. At present, India in involved in projects within the state like the technology park, a specialty 100 bed hospital, Women’s Empowerment Center, construction or renovation of some schools and an Institute of Diplomacy.

In the UAE, Modi met the Crown Prince of the UAE and Abu Dhabi Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al- Nahyan. There were a lot of personal gestures that spoke volumes to the courtesy shown to the Indian premier. Modi happened to be the first foreign guest to be welcomed at the new Palace. He participated in the Sixth World Government’s Summit at Dubai and addressed the gathering on the theme “Technology for Development”. India has been taken as the Guest of Honor country this year.

The six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE account for almost 20 percent of bilateral trade with India. They are the largest trading regional block for India with about US$110 billion of trade. Oil forms a small portion compared to energy overall. India’s 50 percent of oil comes from these countries and 60-65 percent of India’s energy requirements are sourced from the Gulf.

Indian Diaspora is now 9 million with growing remittances of about US$35 billion annually. Modi laid the foundation of the first Hindu Temple in Abu Dhabi. UAE has about 3 million people of Indian origin.

India has signed a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with the UAE, which the current relations are based. India and the UAE signed about five MoUs to:

· institutionalise the collaborative administration of contractual employment of Indian workers in UAE

· for technical Cooperation in the Rail Sector

22 · enhance cooperation between both the countries in the financial services industry

· establish a multi-modal logistics park and hub in Jammu comprising warehouses and specialized storage solutions

The fifth and the most important one was the awarding to a consortium of Indian oil companies, led by ONGC Videsh Ltd., a 10% concession in the offshore called the Lower Zakum oil-field. There is a 40% stake with 10 % concession in this field available for the Indian companies. And this is a first Indian investment in the upstream oil sector of the UAE. For about 40 years (2018-57), these Indian companies will receive about 2.2 million tonnes of oil annually.

In terms of defence cooperation, India has largely engaged with Palestine on development. With the UAE, India holds training exercises and exchanges. Both states will hold the first bilateral naval exercises in March this year. With Oman, India is involved in all the three exercises, i.e., army, navy and air. India avails the Operational Turn Around (OTR) facilities from Oman.

India shares cordial relations with Oman, particularly its ruler Sultan Sayyid Qaboos Bin Said Al Said. Modi met the King and the two deputy Prime Ministers— Sayyed Fahad and Sayyed Asad. India and Oman share relations in areas particularly to do with trade and investment, energy, defence, security and food security. About 8 agreements were signed in the areas of defence, health, tourism, etc. Both leaders also discussed regional issues and developments. In his meeting with business leaders and the Indian Diaspora, Modi sought investments while keeping up with the general tirade against the opposition parties, particularly the Congress, which has become the stooping hallmark of a great leader.

The Long Due visit from Tehran

In April 2001, Prime Minister A. B. Vajpayee visited Tehran and the “Tehran Declaration” was signed, laying out the areas of cooperation. This was further strengthened by giving a strategic partnership character, when President Mohammad Khatami visited India in January 2003 with the Ðelhi Declaration. Since this visit, President of Iran Dr. Hassan Rouhani’s visit to India came after a long gap.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi had visited Tehran in May 2016 after his trips to Saudi Arabia (April 2016) and the UAE (October 2015). This visit was marked by exchanges in energy security and connectivity to the Central Asian regions through Afghanistan. Again, trade and investment play an important part in the ties between India and Iran. Hence, the relations between both the countries are largely commercial in nature. India is not a significant state actor in the Middle East. It relies on the Middle East for its energy needs, remittances and the safety of its people. Towards this end, cooperation against terrorism, radicalism and cyber crime becomes important for India with Tehran.

Connectivity

One of the regions that both have common interests is in Afghanistan. The Trilateral agreement on Transit and Transport was signed in 2016 between the three leaders of India, Iran and Afghanistan. India has been part of the infrastructural development projects at the Chabahar Port. India has laid great emphasis on connectivity. In this region, the Chabahar Port will give India access to Kabul, Central Asia, and also to Russia and Europe, if and when it is connected to the International North

23 South Transport Corridor (INSTC). India has been able to build connectivity with the South-east Asian countries with its neighbours such as . However, this has not been possible with Pakistan. Hence, the Iran route is the best for India to ‘Link West’. Chabahar enables India to carry crude oil from the Gulf of Oman to Gujarat via this Port through the 1400 kms Iran-Oman-India pipeline.

So far, India and Iran are building the 500 kms rail link between Chabahar Port and Zahedan. The progress on this was reviewed during the Rouhani-Modi talks. This line would connect to the rest of Iran rail network and also to the Afghan line of Zaranj-Delaram. About nine Agreements were signed in the areas of double taxation, diplomacy, health, agriculture and connectivity, which related to the leasing of the Shahid Beheshti Port-Phase 1 of Chabahar, which is yet to gain full operability. The Phase-1 of Chabahar Port was inaugurated in early December 2017

The focus of the talks was on connectivity and the development of the Chabahar Port and the Chabahar Free Trade-Industrial Zone (FTZ). Iran seeks the Indian private and public sectors to avail opportunities at Chabahar.

Trade

Trade so far has been dominated by import of Iranian crude and its products apart from items such as inorganic/organic chemicals, fertilizers, plastic and articles, edible fruit and nuts, glass and glassware, natural or cultured pearls, precious or semi-precious stones, etc. India is the second largest buyer of Iranian crude after China and Iran was the third largest supplier of crude to India (Apr-Sep 2016). India-Iran bilateral trade during the fiscal year 2016-17 reached $12.89bn. Major Indian exports to Iran include rice, tea, iron and steel, organic chemicals, metals, electrical machinery, drugs/pharmaceuticals etc.

Culture

India and Iran share great relations in terms of historical ties and culture. India’s Cultural Centre, inaugurated in May 2013, operates from its Embassy premises, while Iran has three Cultural Centres at Delhi, Hyderabad and Mumbai. Rouhani visited Hyderabad (February 15) prior to his talks with Modi. He met several religious leaders and Islamic holy sites. He also met the Parsi community at Delhi.

Home

Rouhani and Modi exchanged views on the situation at the domestic front during the bilateral talks on February 17, 2018. Iran is not only facing external foreign actors who are hostile, but it is challenged by its own people, particularly the youth. The youth are disenchanted with the Iranian administration that regulates their social lives in a stringent manner. Moreover, unemployment and inflation have added more to the worries of Tehran.

India needs to utilise its diplomatic offices to ensure its interests and also to convince the USA and Israel, with whom it shares better relations, to relieve tensions with Tehran.

Trudeau’s Visit to India

The Prime Minister of Canada, Justin Trudeau, visited India (February 18 to 24, 2018). On February 23, Trudeau and PM Narendra Modi held bilateral talks. Towards the end, both sides signed agreements or MoUs in areas such as civil nuclear science and technology, education, audio-visual co-

24 production, information technology, intellectual property and sports. Since the 2000s bilateral relations have gained momentum, particularly from the Canadian side. Modi visited Canada in April 2015.

India and Canada have based their relations on common principles of mutual respect for sovereignty, unity and territorial integrity. The strategic partnership between both the countries is based on shared values of democracy, diversity, pluralism, and rule of law.

Though geographically situated in an opposite time zone, Canada has become important for India on several fronts. One of them being, that it hosts about 1.6 million Persons of Indian Origin (PIOs). This amounts to more than 3% of the total population, that is largely spread over the Greater Toronto area, the Greater Vancouver area, Montreal (Quebec), Calgary (Alberta), Ottawa (Ontario) and Winnipeg (Manitoba). The diaspora is also significantly engaged in political activity. About 21 Members of the Parliament in Canada out of the 338 are of Indian origin. There are four ministers in the Trudeau government—Minister of Defence Mr. Harjit S. Sajjan; Mr. Navdeep Bains, Minister of Innovation, Science and Economic Development; Mr. Amarjit Sohi, Minister for Infrastructure and Communities and Ms. Bardish Chagger, Government House Leader in the House of Commons and Minister of Small Business and Tourism.

Turdeau and Modi highlighted the flagship programmes in their respective countries for which they have sought mutual investments. However the bilateral trade has remained below the potential at US$ 6.13 billion in 2016-17. India accounts for only 1.95% of Canada’s global trade. Both sides are still in discussions on the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) and the Bilateral Investment Promotion and Partnership Agreement (BIPPA/FIPA). Both sides have almost agreed to import Canadian pulses to India, that are free from pests of quarantine importance.

Both sides announced the launch of the Canada-India Accelerator Program for Women Tech Entrepreneurs. This will be jointly funded by both the governments to identify 20 startups annually over the next two years and support women entrepreneurs with a market access programme.

Both sides have a good understanding in the civil-nuclear space with the agreement being signed in 2010, while it came into force in 2013. India has been receiving uranium supply from Canada since December 2015 with three shipments having reached the former. Canada had supported India’s entry into the three nuclear regimes—Missile Technology Control Regime, Wassenaar Arrangement and the Australia Group. It has also extended its strong support for India’s accession to the Nuclear Suppliers Group.

The area of education is significant, where both sides have signed a MoU. More than 124,000 Indian students currently study in Canada.

India and Canada have a better understanding in areas such as energy, climate change, gender equality and terrorism. Both sides have signed a separate agreement on a bilateral Framework for Cooperation on Countering Terrorism and Violent Extremism. The terrorist groups that are targeted include Al Qaeda, ISIS, the Haqqani Network, LeT, JeM, Babbar Khalsa International, and the International Sikh Youth Federation. Both sides would exchange information and cooperate in the field of security, finance, law enforcement and justice. This agreement specifically enables better cooperation between law enforcement and security agencies and legal and policy practitioners.

25 Canada is accused of harbouring the Sikh extremists from India. However the problem has exacerbated, given the fact that the Sikh Diaspora worldwide in 2014 agreed to establish a new political movement called the Referendum 2020. By this year, all the Sikhs around the globe would vote in a plebiscite on whether they would prefer a separate state in the north of India. This action would then proceed to the UNO for seeking self-determination. The larger thrust for this movement has come from the Canadian Sikhs.

The invitation to one of the members of the Khalistan movement, Jaspal Atwal, by the Canadian High Commissioner in Delhi created major embarrassment to the Trudeau administration, as India registered its protest during the premier’s visit. Though relations with Canada are cordial, the question of Sikhs has led to considerable consternation between both the countries.

26 Part III South Asia

Dr. Joyce Lobo gives an account of the crisis facing the nascent Maldivian democracy.

Mal‘dive’an Crisis

President Abdulla Yameen, a half-brother of former President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, won the presidential elections in November 2013. His political party the Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM) won the 16 November run-off election by a minuscule margin of 51.39% with the support from other parties. The popular democratic leader Mohamed Nasheed of the Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) polled 48.61% without any alliance support. Eventually in 2015, Nasheed was arrested on the spurious charges under the Anti-Terrorism Act. The charge was, that he had arrested the Criminal Court judge Absulla Mohammed during his presidency and for which he was sentenced to 13 years. Nasheed eventually sought asylum in 2016 in Britain.

Yameen has imposed a state emergency, after the Supreme Court of the Maldives gave an order on February 01 this year for the release of 9 political prisoners and restore parliamentary seats of the disqualified MPs. Out of this, Nasheed was one of them. Yameen, since taking on the mantle of President, has taken the short cut to consolidate power by imprisoning opposition leaders and former ministers. Yameen has refused to implement the court order. He has the support of the Maldives National Defence Force and the police. Rather through this support, he had arrested the Chief Justice Abdulla Saeed and Justice Ali Hameed.

India has stood by the Supreme Court of Maldives alongwith many democratic nations, demanding from the Yameen government to implement the Feb. 01 order.

Friendly countries such as Saudi Arabia, China and Pakistan are informed of the developments given through Yameen’s Special Envoys. Saudi Arabia and Pakistan share close affinity with the Sunni Maledives. China's leadership becomes important for the Maldives with regard to connectivity, investment and most importantly to act as the Big Brother in the region . Both share the affinity, given that both have authoritarian regimes. India refused to host any of these special envoys.

The Maldivian Navy has declined to be part of the naval exercises called ‘Milan’ in March, given the state of emergency declared. About 16 countries from the Indian Ocean region will participate.The Maldives ‘India First’ policy seems to be in jeopardy and more so, as it does not share the Sunni connection or the authoritarian tendencies.

*****

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