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Home , Badruddin Ajmal, Chief Minister (India), Himanta Biswa Sarma, Tarun Gogoi

HAND IN HAND and emerge after filing the nomination for the joint candidate, March 2020

NATION

he speculation about a pre-poll alliance between the Congress and the Badruddin Ajmal-led All United Democratic Front (AIUDF) and WANING the signs of dissent within the state unit of the ruling BJP have created a new electoral arith- metic in Assam even though the assembly elec- tion is seven months away. Several top leaders of the Assam Congress have publicly said that SCENT OF they favour a pre-poll alliance with all anti- BJP parties, including AIUDF. “We are entering into Tan alliance with the AIUDF in the greater interest of the people of Assam,” Congress veteran and former Assam SAFFRON Tarun Gogoi recently said in . On paper, the tie-up between the two parties could A CONGRESS-AIUDF ALLIANCE, ANTI-CAA give them an edge in over 50 of Assam’s 126 assembly SENTIMENT AND HIMANTA BISWA seats by preventing a split of the Muslim vote. Both par- SARMA’S LONG-STANDING AMBITION MAY ties bank heavily on their support given that the com- MAKE THE GOING TOUGH FOR BJP-AGP munity makes up 35 per cent of the state’s population. In fact, the Assam-born and Mumbai-based perfume baron By Kaushik Deka Ajmal floated the AIUDF in 2005 to protect Bangla- speaking Muslims from harassment, considering they are often perceived as illegal settlers from Bangladesh. Things have certainly come a long way since 2006,

SEPTEMBER 14, 2020 �INDIA TODAY �55 NATION ASSAM

when Gogoi had, in the run-up to the ship to Hindu, Sikh, Buddhist, Jain, state election that year, asked: “Who is Parsi and Christian refugees from Badruddin?” AIUDF won 10 seats that Afghanistan, Bangladesh and Paki- year and 18 five years later, becoming the stan. Though this provision covers largest opposition party in the assembly. refugees from the three Islamic The party’s tally dipped to 13 in 2016. HOW TO READ countries, Assamese-speaking peo- Gogoi continued calling AIUDF a “com- ple in Assam feared it would primar- munal” party and the BJP’s B team that A TWEET ily benefit the illegal Bengali-Hindu fields candidates to eat into Congress migrants from Bangladesh, who are votes. Most Congress leaders, includ- thought to have settled in the state ing Gogoi, believed an alliance with the On August 25, Assam’s finance in high numbers. As a result, the AIUDF, which is perceived to be a party minister , Assamese-dominated Brahmaputra who has been the chief architect protecting immigrant Muslims, could Valley had erupted in protest against of the BJP’s spread in the entire alienate the Hindu vote, more so given the CAA, though the agitation fiz- northeast, tweeted: “I am not the BJP’s communal polarisation. interested in contesting next zled out with the Covid-19 outbreak. The sa�ron party, on the other hand, assembly election”. This is not the Sensing an anti-BJP mood has always alleged a secret Congress-AI- first time he has said so—Sarma among the Assamese-speaking UDF pact. While there have been mur- has made the same statement people, the Congress feels an alli- murs about such an alliance, the two on multiple occasions in the past ance with the AIUDF would not be parties have never had an o�cial pact four years. In 2019, he had an- as damaging as it could have been for the assembly or election. nounced that he would contest in the past. There are 36 assembly In the 2019 Lok Sabha poll, the Congress the Lok Sabha election, but Prime constituencies in the state where Minister asked won three of Assam’s 14 seats, all in the Assamese speakers determine the him to continue as a minister in minority-dominated areas. The AIUDF electoral verdict. The AIUDF is not the Assam cabinet. The latest did not field any candidate in two seats, tweet, however, is seen as a final a player in these seats and the battle hinting at an uno�cial understanding. announcement of his intent that is between the Congress and the The ‘friendship’ was out in the open this he will not remain a minister in the BJP-AGP alliance. The Congress March when Gogoi and Ajmal walked Assam cabinet should the BJP win hopes to at least triple its tally in out of the state assembly, hand in hand, the next assembly election. If he these seats from four in 2016. after filing the nomination of the Con- has to be persuaded back to con- gress-AIUDF joint candidate, senior test the assembly poll, there will owever, these are journalist Ajit Kumar Bhuyan, for the perhaps be a price to it. Sarma theoretical calcula- Rajya Sabha election. will expect the BJP leadership to t ion s pr e s ent ly. fulfil his long-standing dream of H The Congress now seeks to formalise While the alliance becoming Assam chief minister or its understanding with the AIUDF, in include him in the Union cabinet. may work in Mus- a U-turn from its previously held posi- It remains to be seen if Modi and lim-dominated constituencies, the tion. Political observers see it as a com- will agree to replace Congress’s expectation to make a bination of the party’s desperation and the current CM, Sarbananda dent in Assamese-speaking areas hope. Since the 2014 general election, the Sonowal, under pressure. may be marred by the emergence of Congress has failed to win any election in new political parties. Two influential Assam—losing even civic body and gram student groups—All Assam Students panchayat polls. The party’s three-seat Union (AASU) and Asom Jatiya- tally in the 2014 and 2019 parliamentary While its alliance tabadi Yuva Chatra Parishad (AJY- elections is its lowest ever in the state. The with AIUDF may CP)—have formed an advisory com- Congress won 26 seats in the 2016 assem- mittee to suggest a way forward to bly election, which was among its worst yield results launch a new political party. The two performances (it had won an identical in the Muslim- student groups have recently spear- number of seats in 1978 and 1985). dominated seats, headed the anti-CAA stir in the Following the intense anti-CAA state. Krishak Mukti Sangram (Citizenship Amendment Act) agitation new parties may Samiti (KMSS), one of the most in the state since last year, the Congress mar the Congress’s prominent social groups working now senses a new electoral realignment. hopes of wins in primarily for peasants, has also de- Last December, the Union government cided to float a new formation to passed the contentious citizenship law, the Assamese- contest the 2021 election. which seeks to provide Indian citizen- speaking areas All these groups draw their support

56 �INDIA TODAY SEPTEMBER 14, 2020 ment, AICC Assam in-charge Har- HOW A CONGRESS-AIUDF ALLIANCE ish Rawat has clarified the alliance MAY IMPACT THE 2021 ASSAM POLL with AIUDF had not been finalised. But more than the Congress high If it fructifies, the BJP-AGP tie-up will face a challenge in 51 out of 126 assembly seats command, the BJP national brass has a bigger reason to worry. On August 25, Assam’s finance minister Himan- Types of The likely impact of a Total ta Biswa Sarma, who has been the constituency Congress-AIUDF alliance seats chief architect of the party’s spread Seats where New regional parties in entire northeast, tweeted saying he Assamese-speaking people 32 4 may make a dent, but will not contest the assembly election play a decisive role alliance unlikely to 36 gain here next year. In 2019, he announced he would contest the Lok Sabha election, Seats dominated by but Prime Minister Narendra Modi Muslim population of 4 17 12 Alliance likely 33 immigrant origin to sweep asked him to continue as a minister in the Assam cabinet. Sarma had quit Seats dominated by Likely to go in the Congress in 2015 as the party’s Bengali Hindus 7 1 favour of BJP-AGP 8 then vice president, Rahul Gandhi, did not relent to his demand of mak- Seats where polarisation Will be keenly ing him chief minister in place of Ta- between Hindu and contested Muslims will determine 5 1 6 run Gogoi. The switch to BJP has not the verdict made his dream come true yet. In BJP, he may not have the Swing seats with 12 Will be keenly bandwidth for another rebellion, mixed population 12 contested but by announcing his decision not Constituencies where tea to contest the assembly poll on the tribes and non-Assamese Likely to go in favour day BJP national general secretary voters, including Bihari, 6 3 of BJP-AGP 9 Bengali, Marwari and Nepali B.L. Santhosh arrived in Guwahati, voters, can decide winner Sarma has sent the message to the high command that he will no lon- Tribal-dominated 8 1 Likely to go in favour 10 seats of BJP-AGP ger be content playing second fiddle to Chief Minister Sarbananda So-

BTAD nowal. The announcement has al- 12 No impact 12 seats at all ready created a flutter in the state as Sarma’s organisational network, electoral manoeuvring and personal Total 74 26 13 126 equation with alliance partners will be extremely crucial for winning the 2021 election. Total seats Seats BJP+AGP won in 2016 Seats Congress won Seats AIUDF won Others Besides, he has also been the go-to man for Union home minis- ter Amit Shah for troubleshooting in the region—from the crisis in the Graphic by ASIT ROY government to Naga peace talks. If he has to be persuaded back primarily from the Assamese-speaking in favour. An alliance with the AIUDF to contest the assembly election, he population and may cut into both Con- would mean many of them will be de- will expect that the BJP leadership gress and BJP votes. nied tickets. The two parties will have to either makes him the chief minister Besides these external factors, Con- work out a seat-sharing formula, which is or takes him to as a Union min- gress and AIUDF need to cross several easier said than done. While the AIUDF ister. However, the Modi-Shah duo is internal hurdles before they can clinch would want to keep most of the Muslim- not known to give in to tantrums and a deal. Though Gogoi and Assam Con- dominated seats, it has very little to o�er demands. The contours of BJP’s 2021 gress president Ripun Bora have shown to the Congress in most of upper Assam electoral campaign in Assam, there- enthusiasm for an alliance with the AI- and tribal-dominated constituencies. To fore, will depend on how the two lead- UDF, several party colleagues are not douse the internal tension for the mo- ers handle the Sarma’s ambition. ■

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