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Commuter Rail Feasibility Study (Halifax Ref: RFP #P14‐047)

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Commuter Rail Feasibility Study (Halifax Ref: RFP #P14‐047) FINAL REPORT Commuter Rail Feasibility Study (Halifax Ref: RFP #P14‐047) Final Report Prepared for: Halifax Prepared by: CPCS In association with sub‐contractors: Dillon Consulting Limited Ekistics Planning & Design First Class Partnerships CPCS Ref: 14169 August 31, 2015 FINAL REPORT | Halifax Commuter Rail Feasibility Study Halifax Ref: RFP #P14‐047 Acknowledgements The CPCS team would like to thank all of those who provided information for the preparation of this report. We would also like to thank Halifax Transit and Halifax Regional Municipality for their support in the development of this report. Contact George Kaulbeck Project Manager CPCS [email protected] Tel: (506) 386‐1352 72 Chamberlain Ave. Ottawa, Ontario Canada K1S 1V9 [email protected] www.cpcs.ca August 31, 2015 CPCS Ref: 14169 Halifax Regional Municipality Re: Commuter Rail Feasibility Study To whom this may concern: CPCS Transcom Limited (CPCS)1 was retained last summer, pursuant to the above referenced Request for Proposal (RFP) process, to: Produce a comprehensive feasibility study that accurately reflects the costs of implementing and operating commuter rail in Halifax. Our analysis focused on three potential commuter rail operating concepts (Halifax‐Elmsdale, Halifax‐ Cobequid and Halifax‐Beaver Bank), each with a different terminus (i.e. end‐of‐line station). All concepts would primarily use the existing CN Bedford Subdivision rail corridor. Depending on the operating concept and related traffic scenarios, the estimated up front capital costs of the project ranges from $36 to $62 million; the annual net operating cost (i.e. operating cost minus incremental revenues) thereafter is estimated to be in the order of $8 million per year. The resulting financial net present value is between ‐$164 million and ‐$187 million over the 25‐year analysis period. We determined that service to Elmsdale as a standalone concept is not viable; as such, the above estimates only include the results from the Halifax‐Cobequid and Halifax‐Beaver Bank concepts. The analysis revealed that though commuter rail is technically feasible (subject to suitable track access and operating arrangements with CN), based on the assumptions used in the study, none of the operating concepts assessed would result in economic benefits that exceed the cost of implementing the service. The highest benefit‐cost ratio calculated was approximately 0.7, which indicates that the estimated project benefits equal about 70% of the project’s costs. In short, our analysis revealed that, on balance, commuter rail in Halifax – as currently conceived – is not economically viable. There may be opportunities to increase the viability of the project, by leveraging Transit Oriented Development (TOD) or through downtown revitalization, though these scenarios would require further study. There is nevertheless notable public enthusiasm for commuter rail in Halifax, as evidenced during the public open house meeting held in February 2015. The development of commuter rail service in Halifax could be considered in the context of a broader, long‐term corridor development vision, supported by plans and policies to enable densification and development around commuter rail stations and reduce road traffic. However, there are also risks that could make the project less economically viable, such as higher than estimated track access fees, which would have to be negotiated with CN. 1 CPCS is a global management consulting firm specializing in transportation sector strategy, economic analysis and policy; we have an established track record and reputation in undertaking rail‐sector feasibility studies and drew on over 30 years of Canadian and global experience in assessing the feasibility of the commuter rail project in Halifax. FINAL REPORT | Halifax Commuter Rail Feasibility Study Halifax Ref: RFP #P14‐047 We thank you for the opportunity to have worked with Halifax in undertaking this study. Finest regards, CPCS Transcom Limited Original Signed Marc‐André Roy Project Director FINAL REPORT | Halifax Commuter Rail Feasibility Study Halifax Ref: RFP #P14‐047 Table of Contents Acronyms / Abbreviations ................................................................................................................. v Executive Summary ......................................................................................................................... vii Existing Rail Infrastructure and Potential Station Locations ............................................................. viii Ridership ............................................................................................................................................... x Technical Feasibility ............................................................................................................................. xi Track Access ....................................................................................................................................... xiii Financial Affordability ........................................................................................................................ xiv Economic Benefits .............................................................................................................................. xx 1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................... 1 Background ............................................................................................................................... 2 Study Objective ........................................................................................................................ 2 Project Structure ...................................................................................................................... 2 Purpose of this Report .............................................................................................................. 3 Methodology ............................................................................................................................ 3 Limitations ................................................................................................................................ 4 Report Organization ................................................................................................................. 4 2 Existing Rail Infrastructure ............................................................................................................. 6 Mainline Tracks ........................................................................................................................ 7 CN Bedford Subdivision ............................................................................................................ 9 WHRC ...................................................................................................................................... 19 3 Existing Rail Operations and Available Capacity ............................................................................ 22 Existing Freight Operations .................................................................................................... 23 Existing Passenger Operations ............................................................................................... 26 Future for Rail Operations in Halifax ...................................................................................... 28 Capacity .................................................................................................................................. 28 4 Station Locations ......................................................................................................................... 35 | i FINAL REPORT | Halifax Commuter Rail Feasibility Study Halifax Ref: RFP #P14‐047 Possible Station Locations ...................................................................................................... 36 List of Stations Considered in Further Analysis ...................................................................... 38 5 Regulatory, Commercial and Legal Considerations ....................................................................... 40 Regulations ............................................................................................................................. 41 Legal Considerations .............................................................................................................. 45 6 Travel Demand Analysis ............................................................................................................... 47 Travel Demand Forecasting Approach ................................................................................... 48 Travel Demand ....................................................................................................................... 49 Model Inputs and Adjustments .............................................................................................. 53 Existing Halifax Transit Service ............................................................................................... 58 Scenario Development ........................................................................................................... 62 Forecast Demand ................................................................................................................... 64 Modal Shift Trends ................................................................................................................
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