Does Pre-Season Buzz Really Matter? by Steve Sternberg

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May 2021 #106 ______

Does Pre-Season Buzz Really Matter? By Steve Sternberg

Prior to the pandemic-delayed 2020-21 TV season, I released an annual report examining the impact of pre-season buzz on new TV shows. Each time my conclusion has been the same – despite some notable exceptions, there is no correlation between the level of pre-season buzz a show receives and whether it becomes successful once it premieres.

Background Until the early-2000s, the broadcast networks aired almost exclusively repeats during the summer and there was virtually no television-based news other than previewing new fall series – which would typically begin right after the network upfront presentations in late May, and continue unabated through the start of the new season in late September. There was ample time to create buzz for the fall TV shows. That was before cable networks aired numerous original scripted series during those months, before the broadcast networks started airing summer reality, game shows, and limited-run series, and before the advent of streaming services.

A Sternberg Report Sponsored Message

______Syndicated news magazine series such as Entertainment Tonight, Extra, and Access Hollywood, along with newspapers and magazines such as People, Us, and Entertainment Weekly, used to be the main sources of new series promotion and buzz. I was among the pundits periodically appearing on Entertainment Tonight and other venues discussing my agency’s projected new season hits and misses (when I was head of TV Analysis at Bozell, TN Media, and Magna Global, respectively). My reports, as well as others from my media agency peers, would also be quoted in the consumer and trade press, both printed and online (New York Times, Wall Street Journal, USA Today, TV Guide, Ad Age, Adweek, Broadcasting & Cable, MediaPost, etc.). Over the past decade, social media has become a key component in promoting television series as well – although this tends to have more influence on shows that are already on the air than on new shows.

Types of Shows that Benefit from Pre-Season Buzz It is interesting, and perhaps counter-intuitive, that over the past 20 years, the success rate of all new broadcast television series has been essentially the same as those that generated the most pre- season buzz – roughly one-third. Of all the series that have succeeded during the same period, about two-thirds did not receive a significant amount of buzz prior to their premieres.

A number of new series with strong pre-season buzz have become instant successes (e.g., Desperate Housewives, Glee, The Walking Dead, Better Call Saul, This is Us), while others have failed to find an audience (see Bionic Woman, Flash Forward, The Bastard Executioner, Pitch, the Murphy Brown reboot). There doesn’t seem to be any commonality among either group (except that most sci-fi series get a decent amount of buzz regardless of whether or not they do well).

Many series that received little pre-season notice became long-running hits. Examples include, NCIS, Seinfeld, Friends, E.R., Grey’s Anatomy, Criminal Minds, Mad Men, The Big Bang Theory,

______Sons of Anarchy, Justified, The Americans, The Closer, and Rizzoli & Isles, to name just a few. No commonality here either.

Pre-season buzz seems to have more of an impact on cable series, primarily because there are fewer of them and their ratings threshold for success is significantly lower than for broadcast networks. Since 2001, half of the most buzzed about new ad-supported cable shows became successful. But there were still nearly four times as many cable series that became hits without the benefit pre-season buzz. One of the biggest differences here, of course, is that unlike the broadcast networks, cable nets long ago realized the benefit of cross-promoting one another’s programming.

The Comic-Con Effect Originally, comic cons focused primarily on comic books and the surrounding culture, where comic book fans could meet and greet creators, artists, experts, and one another. Today, most of them have grown into multi-day events that include numerous pop-culture and entertainment elements, as well as promotional vehicles for theatrical movies and TV shows – mostly of the super-hero, sci-fi, horror, cult, and action variety. The biggest and most well-known annual comic cons are in San Diego (July) and New York (October). In addition to being a marketplace to buy and sell comic books and other pop-culture items, these have also become major marketing events – TV and movie stars, along with producers and showrunners, join panels geared to generating buzz among hardcore fans, which their publicity machines try to make sure will spill over to the general public.

Last year, because of the pandemic, there were no live-event comic cons. This year, they’ve announced a live San Diego event over Thanksgiving weekend, which has generated much controversy, as people who have not seen their families in more than a year would like to do so this holiday season. It’s unclear at this point how big an event will take place in New York this October, although there will be a combination of virtual and live events. With New York City planning to fully

______reopen on July 1st, ending most pandemic-related restrictions, makes having a relatively normal New York Comic Con more likely.

Here’s a look at various TV-related panels that took place at the San Diego and New York comic cons in 2019. Panels are ordinarily run by production studios, but I’m listing them here by network:

San Diego Comic-Con 2019 Network Program Panels ABC Marvel’s Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D., The Rookie, Emergence (new), Stumptown (new) CBS Evil (new) CW Legacies, Arrow, Supergirl, Black Lightning, The Flash, Supernatural, Riverdale, Batwoman (new), Nancy Drew (new), FOX Bob’s Burgers, What Just Happened?, The Simpsons, Family Guy, Prodigal Son (new), Bless the Harts (new), NeXt (new), NBC Superstore, The Good Place, Brooklyn Nine Nine Adult Swim Robot Chicken, Rick and Morty, Primal (new) AMC The Walking Dead, Fear the Walking Dead, The Terror: Infamy, Preacher, NOS4A2 Cartoon Transformers: Cyberverse, Teen Titans GO, DC Super Hero Girls, Infinity Train (new) Comedy Central Crank Yankers Disney Channel Ducktales FX What We Do In the Shadows, Mayans M.C. FXX Archer History Project Blue Book Nickelodeon SpongeBob SquarePants (20th anniversary) SYFY Van Helsing, Wynonna Earp, The Magicians TBS American Dad, Snowpiercer (new) Travel Ghost Adventures Live! Epix Pennyworth (new) HBO Game of Thrones, Westworld, His Dark Materials (new) Starz The Rook Amazon Prime The Expanse, Man in the High Castle, Undone (new), The Boys (new), Carnival Row (new) CBS All Access Star Trek Discovery, Star Trek: Picard (new), Star Trek: Lower Decks (new) DC Universe Titans, Doom Patrol, Young Justice: Outsiders, Harley Quinn (new) Hulu Veronica Mars, Solar Opposites (new), The Orville (formerly on FOX) Netflix The Order, Cursed (new), The Witcher (new), The Dark Crystal: Age of Resistance (new) Shudder Creepshow YouTube Cobra Kai, Impulse

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New York Comic-Con 2019 Network Program Panels ABC Emergence (new) CBS Evil (new) CW Charmed, Riverdale, Roswell, New Mexico, Black Lightning, Legacies, Pandora, Batwoman (new), Nancy Drew (new), Katy Keene (new) FOX Prodigal Son (new), NeXt (new) NBC Manifest, Lincoln (new) Adult Swim Robot Chicken, Rick & Morty, One Punch Man, Primal (new) AMC The Walking Dead, Untitled third Walking Dead series (new) Cartoon Network Steven Universe Disney Channel The Owl House (new) FX DEVS FXX Archer Nickelodeon Spongebob Squarepants, Are You Afraid of the Dark? SYFY Deadly Class, Wyonna Earp, Resident Alien (new) TBS Full Frontal With Samantha Bee, The Misery Index (new), Snowpiercer (new) TNT All Elite Wrestling (new) TruTV Impractical Jokers, Tacoma FD USA The Purge HBO Watchmen (new) Starz Outlander Apple TV + For All Mankind (new) Amazon Prime Jack Ryan, The Expanse, Good Omens CBS All Access Tell Me a Story, Star Trek: Discovery, Star Trek: Picard (new) DC Universe Titans, Harley Quinn (new) Disney+ Marvel’s Hero Project (new) Hulu Marvel’s Runaways, Castle Rock, Reprisal (new), The Orville (formerly on FOX) Netflix Big Mouth, Lost in Space, 13 Reasons Why, She-Ra and the Princesses of Power, The Dragon Prince, Castlevania, Daybreak (new), SEIS MANOS (new), The Last Kids on Earth (new) Shudder Creepshow YouTube Impulse

Why Pre-Season Buzz has Little Impact on New Series Success There are several reasons why there is little impact of pre-season buzz on whether a new show becomes successful once it premieres.

______• Despite the fact that their audiences tend to skew older, newspapers, and syndicated entertainment TV shows have traditionally focused more on the younger, sexier series, rather than on shows their own viewers or readers are most likely to actually watch.

• The average median age of the typical broadcast series is over 55. This is not necessarily the same audience that is buzzing the most about new series online. For example, we have seldom seen CBS shows get as much pre-season buzz as other networks, but it has had more new series success than any other network over the past 15 years.

• Internet and comic-con buzz are often heavily skewed toward sci-fi and super-hero series or shows with former sci-fi stars attached. Except for CW super-hero shows, most broadcast efforts in this category tend not to live up to the hype (although NBC’s Manifest and Debris have been bucking this trend).

• Most social-media-based pre-season buzz comes from people who might have seen a trailer online, but have not seen the full pilot and don’t know if the show is actually any good.

• People who discuss new shows online are not necessarily going to watch them on television if the series is scheduled opposite one of their favorites. This remains true even in today’s DVR, streaming video, time-shifted world (how much longer this continues to be true, however, remains to be seen).

• The impact of social media outlets, such as Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, and Snapchat, is less clear. There does seem to be some correlation with big-event programming – major sports or political events, award shows, season finales, etc. But social media is currently more predictive of shows that are already on, rather than new series. Discussions about shows people have already been watching, or have recently discovered, might provide an indication of whether a show is poised to grow or decline. Social media’s impact on new series performance of scripted regular series, however, has so far been nominal at best.

______I’ve already discussed how this past pandemic-delayed 2020/21 season resulted in little pre-season hype for new series. But even before that, for at least a few seasons, there seemed to be less enthusiastic buzz for new broadcast series than any time in recent memory. This could be because there is so much fast-forwarding through commercials that many people aren’t seeing the promos and have no idea what’s coming on this fall, or it could be that there are so many original scripted series on cable and streaming services year-round that most people don’t focus on the new broadcast season as early as they once did. Nevertheless, this lack of buzz does not mean there won’t be any successful new shows. Just as heavy buzz does not correlate with success, lack of buzz does not correlate with failure.

The chart on the following pages shows new original scripted series on broadcast and ad-supported cable since 2001, and compares the shows that received the most pre-season buzz to those that were successful during their initial seasons. Series in bold received significant pre-season buzz and became successful.

______Pre-Season Buzz vs. In-Season Success

Season Most Buzz Most Successful 2001/02 Bob Patterson (ABC) The Guardian (CBS) Philly (ABC) Crossing Jordan (NBC) Emeril (NBC) 24 (FOX) Watching Ellie (NBC) Smallville (WB) 24 (FOX) Enterprise (UPN) Smallville (WB) The Shield (FX) Monk (USA)

2002/03 8 Simple Rules (ABC) CSI: Miami (CBS) Push Nevada (ABC) Without a Trace (CBS) CSI: Miami (CBS) Still Standing (CBS) Boomtown (NBC) Half and Half (UPN) Girls Club (FOX) Firefly (FOX) Everwood (WB) Nip/Tuck (FX)

2003/04 Line of Fire (ABC) NCIS (CBS) Coupling (NBC) Two and a Half Men (CBS) Whoopi (NBC) Cold Case (CBS) Miss Match (NBC) Las Vegas (NBC) Skin (FOX) The O.C. (FOX) Arrested Development (FOX) One Tree Hill (WB) Tarzan and Jane (WB)

Rescue Me (FX) Rescue Me (FX) The 4400 (USA) The 4400 (USA) Stargate Atlantis (Syfy)

______Pre-Season Buzz vs. In-Season Success

Season Most Buzz Most Successful 2004/05 Desperate Housewives (ABC) Desperate Housewives (ABC) CSI: NY (CBS) Lost (ABC) LAX (NBC) Grey’s Anatomy (ABC) Law & Order: Trial By Jury (NBC) Boston Legal (ABC) Father of the Pride (NBC) CSI: NY (CBS) Joey (NBC) Numb3ers (CBS) Jack and Bobby (WB) The Office (NBC) Medium (NBC) House (FOX) American Dad (FOX)

Battlestar Galactica (SyFy) Battlestar Galactica (Syfy) The Closer (TNT)

2005/06 Commander in Chief (ABC) Criminal Minds (CBS) New Adv. Of Old Christine (CBS) Ghost Whisperer (CBS) My Name is Earl (NBC) How I Met Your Mother (CBS) Prison Break (FOX) Bones (FOX) Everybody Hates Chris (UPN) Prison Break (FOX) Supernatural (WB) Everybody Hates Chris (UPN)

Kyle XY (ABC Family) Eureka (SyFy) Psych (USA)

2006/07 Ugly Betty (ABC) Ugly Betty (ABC) The Nine (ABC) Brothers and Sisters (ABC) Jericho (CBS) Heroes (NBC) Heroes (NBC) 30 Rock (NBC) Friday Night Lights (NBC) Studio 60 (NBC) Mad Men (AMC) Damages (FX) Army Wives (Lifetime) Saving Grace (TNT) Saving Grace (TNT) Burn Notice (USA)

2007/08 Private Practice (ABC) Private Practice (ABC) Cavemen (ABC) The Big Bang Theory (CBS) Pushing Daisies (ABC) Gossip Girl (CW) Cane (CBS) Bionic Woman (NBC) Lipstick Jungle (NBC) Gossip Girl (CW) Secret Life of an Amer. Teen (AFAM) Breaking Bad (AMC) Law & Order: Criminal Intent (USA) In Plain Sight (USA)

______Pre-Season Buzz vs. In-Season Success

Season Most Buzz Most Successful 2008/09 My Own Worst Enemy (NBC) Castle (ABC) Dollhouse (FOX) The Mentalist (CBS) Fringe (FOX) Fringe (FOX) 90210 (CW) Sons of Anarchy (FX) Justified (FX) Warehouse 13 (Syfy) Leverage (TNT) Royal Pains (USA)

2009/10 Flash Forward (ABC) Modern Family (ABC) Private Practice (ABC) The Middle (ABC) NCIS: LA (CBS) Rookie Blue (ABC) Glee (FOX) NCIS: LA (CBS) Melrose Place (CW) The Good Wife (CBS) Vampire Diaries (CW) The Mentalist CBS) Glee (FOX) Vampire Diaries (CW) Men of a Certain Age (TNT) Southland (TNT) Drop Dead Diva (Lifetime) Hot in Cleveland (TV Land) Hot in Cleveland (TV Land) Rizolli & Isles (TNT) White Collar (USA)

2010/11 No Ordinary Family (ABC) Hawaii Five-O (CBS) Hawaii Five-O (CBS) Mike & Molly (CBS) $#*! My Dad Says (CBS) Blue Bloods (CBS) Law & Order: LA (NBC) Raising Hope (FOX) Outlaw (NBC) Lone Star (FOX)

The Walking Dead (AMC) The Walking Dead (AMC) The Killing (AMC) Hell on Wheels (AMC) Louie (FX) Portlandia (IFC) Awkward (MTV) Teen Wolf (MTV) Franklin & Bash (TNT) Falling Skies (TNT) Suits (TNT) Covert Affairs (USA)

______Pre-Season Buzz vs. In-Season Success

Season Most Buzz Most Successful 2011/12 Charlie’s Angels (ABC) Once Upon a Time (ABC) Once Upon a Time (ABC) Scandal (ABC) Revenge (ABC) 2 Broke Girls (CBS) GCB (ABC) Person of Interest (CBS) Pan Am (ABC) New Girl (FOX) Terra Nova (FOX) Touch (FOX) New Girl (FOX) Smash (NBC) The Playboy Club (NBC) Ringer (CW)

Major Crimes (TNT) Longmire (A&E) Always Sunny in Phila. (FX) American Horror Story (FX) Flashpoint (ION) Major Crimes (TNT) 2012/13 Nashville (ABC) Nashville (ABC) 666 Park Avenue (ABC) Elementary (CBS) Go On (NBC) Under the Dome (CBS) Revolution (NBC) The Following (FOX) Arrow (CW) Chicago Fire (NBC) Beauty & The Beast (CW) Arrow (CW)

Bates Motel (A&E) Bates Motel (A&E) Orphan Black (BBCA) Being Mary Jane (BET) The Americans (FX) Vikings (History) Devious Maids (Life) Defiance (Syfy)

2013/14 Marvel Agents of Shield (ABC) Marvel Agents of Shield (ABC) Once Upon…Wonderland (ABC) The Goldbergs (ABC) Super Fun Night (ABC) Mom (CBS) The Crazy Ones (CBS) 24: Live Another Day (FOX) Hostages (CBS) Brooklyn Nine Nine (FOX) Extant (CBS) Sleepy Hollow (FOX) 24: Live Another Day (FOX) The Blacklist (NBC) Sleepy Hollow (FOX) Chicago PD (NBC) The Blacklist (NBC) Night Shift (NBC) Michael J. Fox Show (NBC) Originals (CW)

Fargo (FX) Fargo (FX) The Strain (FX) When Calls the Heart (Hall) The Last Ship (TNT) Murder in the First (TNT)

______Pre-Season Buzz vs. In-Season Success

Season Most Buzz Most Successful 2014/15 How to Get Away - Murder (ABC) How to Get Away - Murder (ABC) Marvel’s Agent Carter (ABC) Blackish (ABC) Gotham (FOX) Madam Secretary (CBS) Constantine (NBC) NCIS: New Orleans (CBS) The Flash (CW) Scorpion (CBS) Gotham (FOX) Empire (FOX) Mysteries of Laura (NBC) The Flash (CW)

Better Call Saul (AMC) Better Call Saul (AMC) Mr. Robot (USA) Scream (MTV) The Librarians (TNT)

2015/16 The Muppets (ABC) Quantico (ABC) Scream Queens (FOX) Life in Pieces (CBS) The X-Files (FOX) The X-Files (FOX) Heroes Reborn (NBC) Chicago Med (NBC) Blindspot (NBC) Blindspot (NBC) DC Legends of Tomorrow (CW) Shades of Blue (NBC) DC Legends of Tomorrow (CW) Fear the Walking Dead (AMC) Preacher (AMC) Fear the Walking Dead (AMC) The Bastard Executioner (FX) Preacher (AMC) Animal Kingdom (TNT) Into the Badlands (AMC) Chesapeake Shores (Hall) Animal Kingdom (TNT) Queen of the South (USA) Underground (WGNA)

2016/17 Designated Survivor (ABC) Designated Survivor (ABC) Riverdale (CW) Kevin Can Wait (CBS) Prison Break (FOX) Bull (CBS) The Exorcist (FOX) Riverdale (CW) Pitch (FOX) MacGyver (FOX) This is Us (NBC) Lethal Weapon (FOX) Timeless (NBC) This is Us (NBC) The Good Place (NBC) The Good Place (NBC)

Atlanta (FX) Atlanta (FX) Legion (FX) Legion (FX) Falling Water (USA) Taboo (FX) Snowfall (FX) Queen Sugar (OWN) Claws (TNT) The Sinner (USA)

______Pre-Season Buzz vs. In-Season Success

Season Most Buzz Most Successful 2017/18 Marvel’s Inhumans (ABC) The Good Doctor (ABC) Roseanne/The Conners (ABC) Roseanne/The Conners (ABC) Young Sheldon (CBS) Young Sheldon (CBS) Will & Grace (NBC) Seal Team (CBS) The Gifted (FOX) S.W.A.T. (CBS) Ghosted (FOX) Will & Grace (NBC) The Orville (FOX) The Orville (FOX)

Marvel’s Cloak & Dagger (Freeform) Marvel’s Cloak & Dagger (Freeform) Pose (FX) The Terror (AMC) Krypton (SYFY) Killing Eve (BBCA) Yellowstone (Par) Pose (FX)

2018/19 A Million Little Things (ABC) A Million Little Things (ABC) The Rookie (ABC) The Rookie (ABC) Magnum PI (CBS) The Neighborhood (CBS) Murphy Brown (CBS) Magnum PI (CBS) Charmed (CW) FBI (CBS) Legacies (CW) Manifest (NBC) Beverly Hills 90210 (FOX) New Amsterdam (NBC)

A Discovery of Witches (AMC) A Discovery of Witches (AMC) Mayans MC (FX) The Family Business (BET) The Purge (USA) Good Trouble (Free) Pearsons (USA) Mayans MC (FX) PLL: The Perfectionists (Freeform) Mr. Inbetween (FX) David Makes Man (OWN) The Purge (USA) Project Blue Book (History)

2019/20 Mixed-ish (ABC) Evil (CBS) Emergence (ABC) FBI: Most Wanted (CBS) Stumptown (ABC) Prodigal Son (FOX) Evil (CBS) 911: Lonestar (FOX) Bluff City Law (NBC) Batwoman (CW) Batwoman (CW)

Snowpiercer (TNT) Sistas (BET) The Oval (BET) Everything’s Gonna Be Okay (Free) Motherland: Fort Salem (Free) Breeders (FX) Snowpiercer (TNT)

______Pre-Season Buzz vs. In-Season Success

Season Most Buzz Most Successful 2020/21 The Equalizer (CBS) Big Sky (ABC) Clarice (CBS) The Equalizer (CBS) Law & Order: Organized Crime (NBC) Law & Order: Organized Crime (NBC) Superman & Lois (CW) Superman & Lois (CW) Walker (CW)

The Walking Dead: World Beyond (AMC) The Walking Dead: World Beyond (AMC) Gangs of London (AMC) Twenties (BET) Ruthless (BET) Resident Alien (Syfy)

Programs in bold are in both categories