May 2021 #106 __________________________________________________________________________________________ _____ Does Pre-Season Buzz Really Matter? By Steve Sternberg Prior to the pandemic-delayed 2020-21 TV season, I released an annual report examining the impact of pre-season buzz on new TV shows. Each time my conclusion has been the same – despite some notable exceptions, there is no correlation between the level of pre-season buzz a show receives and whether it becomes successful once it premieres. Background Until the early-2000s, the broadcast networks aired almost exclusively repeats during the summer and there was virtually no television-based news other than previewing new fall series – which would typically begin right after the network upfront presentations in late May, and continue unabated through the start of the new season in late September. There was ample time to create buzz for the fall TV shows. That was before cable networks aired numerous original scripted series during those months, before the broadcast networks started airing summer reality, game shows, and limited-run series, and before the advent of streaming services. A Sternberg Report Sponsored Message The Sternberg Report ©2021 __________________________________________________________________________________________ _____ Syndicated news magazine series such as Entertainment Tonight, Extra, and Access Hollywood, along with newspapers and magazines such as People, Us, and Entertainment Weekly, used to be the main sources of new series promotion and buzz. I was among the pundits periodically appearing on Entertainment Tonight and other venues discussing my agency’s projected new season hits and misses (when I was head of TV Analysis at Bozell, TN Media, and Magna Global, respectively). My reports, as well as others from my media agency peers, would also be quoted in the consumer and trade press, both printed and online (New York Times, Wall Street Journal, USA Today, TV Guide, Ad Age, Adweek, Broadcasting & Cable, MediaPost, etc.). Over the past decade, social media has become a key component in promoting television series as well – although this tends to have more influence on shows that are already on the air than on new shows. Types of Shows that Benefit from Pre-Season Buzz It is interesting, and perhaps counter-intuitive, that over the past 20 years, the success rate of all new broadcast television series has been essentially the same as those that generated the most pre- season buzz – roughly one-third. Of all the series that have succeeded during the same period, about two-thirds did not receive a significant amount of buzz prior to their premieres. A number of new series with strong pre-season buzz have become instant successes (e.g., Desperate Housewives, Glee, The Walking Dead, Better Call Saul, This is Us), while others have failed to find an audience (see Bionic Woman, Flash Forward, The Bastard Executioner, Pitch, the Murphy Brown reboot). There doesn’t seem to be any commonality among either group (except that most sci-fi series get a decent amount of buzz regardless of whether or not they do well). Many series that received little pre-season notice became long-running hits. Examples include, NCIS, Seinfeld, Friends, E.R., Grey’s Anatomy, Criminal Minds, Mad Men, The Big Bang Theory, 2 __________________________________________________________________________________________ The Sternberg Report ©2021 __________________________________________________________________________________________ _____ Sons of Anarchy, Justified, The Americans, The Closer, and Rizzoli & Isles, to name just a few. No commonality here either. Pre-season buzz seems to have more of an impact on cable series, primarily because there are fewer of them and their ratings threshold for success is significantly lower than for broadcast networks. Since 2001, half of the most buzzed about new ad-supported cable shows became successful. But there were still nearly four times as many cable series that became hits without the benefit pre-season buzz. One of the biggest differences here, of course, is that unlike the broadcast networks, cable nets long ago realized the benefit of cross-promoting one another’s programming. The Comic-Con Effect Originally, comic cons focused primarily on comic books and the surrounding culture, where comic book fans could meet and greet creators, artists, experts, and one another. Today, most of them have grown into multi-day events that include numerous pop-culture and entertainment elements, as well as promotional vehicles for theatrical movies and TV shows – mostly of the super-hero, sci-fi, horror, cult, and action variety. The biggest and most well-known annual comic cons are in San Diego (July) and New York (October). In addition to being a marketplace to buy and sell comic books and other pop-culture items, these have also become major marketing events – TV and movie stars, along with producers and showrunners, join panels geared to generating buzz among hardcore fans, which their publicity machines try to make sure will spill over to the general public. Last year, because of the pandemic, there were no live-event comic cons. This year, they’ve announced a live San Diego event over Thanksgiving weekend, which has generated much controversy, as people who have not seen their families in more than a year would like to do so this holiday season. It’s unclear at this point how big an event will take place in New York this October, although there will be a combination of virtual and live events. With New York City planning to fully 3 __________________________________________________________________________________________ The Sternberg Report ©2021 __________________________________________________________________________________________ _____ reopen on July 1st, ending most pandemic-related restrictions, makes having a relatively normal New York Comic Con more likely. Here’s a look at various TV-related panels that took place at the San Diego and New York comic cons in 2019. Panels are ordinarily run by production studios, but I’m listing them here by network: San Diego Comic-Con 2019 Network Program Panels ABC Marvel’s Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D., The Rookie, Emergence (new), Stumptown (new) CBS Evil (new) CW Legacies, Arrow, Supergirl, Black Lightning, The Flash, Supernatural, Riverdale, Batwoman (new), Nancy Drew (new), FOX Bob’s Burgers, What Just Happened?, The Simpsons, Family Guy, Prodigal Son (new), Bless the Harts (new), NeXt (new), NBC Superstore, The Good Place, Brooklyn Nine Nine Adult Swim Robot Chicken, Rick and Morty, Primal (new) AMC The Walking Dead, Fear the Walking Dead, The Terror: Infamy, Preacher, NOS4A2 Cartoon Transformers: Cyberverse, Teen Titans GO, DC Super Hero Girls, Infinity Train (new) Comedy Central Crank Yankers Disney Channel Ducktales FX What We Do In the Shadows, Mayans M.C. FXX Archer History Project Blue Book Nickelodeon SpongeBob SquarePants (20th anniversary) SYFY Van Helsing, Wynonna Earp, The Magicians TBS American Dad, Snowpiercer (new) Travel Ghost Adventures Live! Epix Pennyworth (new) HBO Game of Thrones, Westworld, His Dark Materials (new) Starz The Rook Amazon Prime The Expanse, Man in the High Castle, Undone (new), The Boys (new), Carnival Row (new) CBS All Access Star Trek Discovery, Star Trek: Picard (new), Star Trek: Lower Decks (new) DC Universe Titans, Doom Patrol, Young Justice: Outsiders, Harley Quinn (new) Hulu Veronica Mars, Solar Opposites (new), The Orville (formerly on FOX) Netflix The Order, Cursed (new), The Witcher (new), The Dark Crystal: Age of Resistance (new) Shudder Creepshow YouTube Cobra Kai, Impulse 4 __________________________________________________________________________________________ The Sternberg Report ©2021 __________________________________________________________________________________________ _____ New York Comic-Con 2019 Network Program Panels ABC Emergence (new) CBS Evil (new) CW Charmed, Riverdale, Roswell, New Mexico, Black Lightning, Legacies, Pandora, Batwoman (new), Nancy Drew (new), Katy Keene (new) FOX Prodigal Son (new), NeXt (new) NBC Manifest, Lincoln (new) Adult Swim Robot Chicken, Rick & Morty, One Punch Man, Primal (new) AMC The Walking Dead, Untitled third Walking Dead series (new) Cartoon Network Steven Universe Disney Channel The Owl House (new) FX DEVS FXX Archer Nickelodeon Spongebob Squarepants, Are You Afraid of the Dark? SYFY Deadly Class, Wyonna Earp, Resident Alien (new) TBS Full Frontal With Samantha Bee, The Misery Index (new), Snowpiercer (new) TNT All Elite Wrestling (new) TruTV Impractical Jokers, Tacoma FD USA The Purge HBO Watchmen (new) Starz Outlander Apple TV + For All Mankind (new) Amazon Prime Jack Ryan, The Expanse, Good Omens CBS All Access Tell Me a Story, Star Trek: Discovery, Star Trek: Picard (new) DC Universe Titans, Harley Quinn (new) Disney+ Marvel’s Hero Project (new) Hulu Marvel’s Runaways, Castle Rock, Reprisal (new), The Orville (formerly on FOX) Netflix Big Mouth, Lost in Space, 13 Reasons Why, She-Ra and the Princesses of Power, The Dragon Prince, Castlevania, Daybreak (new), SEIS MANOS (new), The Last Kids on Earth (new) Shudder Creepshow YouTube Impulse Why Pre-Season Buzz has Little Impact on New Series Success There are several reasons why there is little impact of pre-season buzz on whether a new show becomes successful once it premieres. 5 __________________________________________________________________________________________ The Sternberg Report ©2021 __________________________________________________________________________________________