CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY OF SKI TOURISM IN GERMANY AND TURKEY OSMAN CENK DEMIROĞLU Istanbul Policy Center Bankalar Caddesi No: 2 Minerva Han 34420 Karaköy, Istanbul TURKEY +90 212 292 49 39 +90 212 292 49 57 @ [email protected] ISBN: 978-605-9178-45-7 w ipc.sabanciuniv.edu CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY OF SKI TOURISM IN GERMANY AND TURKEY OSMAN CENK DEMIROĞLU* April 2016 *2014/15 Mercator-IPC Fellow Adjunct Faculty at Boğaziçi University Assistant Professor at Istanbul Bilgi University About Istanbul Policy Center Istanbul Policy Center (IPC) is an independent policy research institute with global outreach. Its mission is to foster academic research in social sciences and its application to policy making. The IPC team is firmly committed to providing decision-makers, opinion leaders, academics, and the general public with innovative and objective analyses in key domestic and foreign policy issues. IPC has expertise in a wide range of areas, including – but not exhaustive to – Turkey-EU-U.S. relations, education, climate change, current trends of political and social transformation in Turkey, as well as the impact of civil society and local governance on this metamorphosis. About the Mercator-IPC Fellowship The Mercator-IPC Fellowship Program is the cornerstone of the IPC-Sabancı University-Stiftung Mercator Initiative. The program aims to strengthen the academic, political, and social ties between Turkey and Germany, as well as Turkey and Europe, by facilitating excellent scientific research and hands-on policy work. It is based on the belief that in an increasingly globalized world, the acquisition of knowledge and an exchange of ideas and people are the preconditions for meeting the challenges of the 21st century. Acknowledgements I would like to express my thanks to the members and the affiliates of the Istanbul Policy Center–Sabancı University–Stiftung Mercator Initiative and the Boğaziçi University Center for Climate Change and Policy Studies for always assisting me during my fellowship and making this report and others possible. The interpretations and conclusions in this report belong solely to the author and do not reflect IPC’s official position. CONTENTS INTRODUCTION 5 LITERATURE REVIEW 6 CONTEMPORARY CLIMATE CHANGE 6 CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY 6 TOURISM INDUSTRY AND CLIMATE CHANGE 7 SKI TOURISM AND CLIMATE CHANGE 8 CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY OF SKI TOURISM IN GERMANY 16 SKI TOURISM IN GERMANY 16 IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON SKI AREAS AND RESORTS IN GERMANY 17 SKI TOURISM ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN GERMANY 20 CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY OF SKI TOURISM IN TURKEY 25 SKI TOURISM IN TURKEY 25 IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON SKI AREAS AND RESORTS IN TURKEY 25 SKI TOURISM ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN TURKEY 31 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 39 BIBLIOGRAPHY 41 INTRODUCTION Contemporary climate change, i.e. global warming, is one of the most challenging threats to our world. The effects of the phenomenon are and will continue to be felt by many components of natural and human systems, mostly in a negative way. The tourism industry, as one of the largest sectors of the global economy, is also under threat due to the already realized and anticipated negative impacts of climate change. Ski tourism in particular remains one of the most vulnerable subsectors of the industry given its high exposure and sensitivity and relatively low adaptive capacity. This report first reviews the literature on climate change vulnerability of ski tourism and then focuses on two cases at the national level. As the departure point, Germany, one of the most well-established ski countries that has been leading the fight against climate change for more than a decade, is examined through specific research studies and practical issues. Following this, benchmark examples are synthesized in order to understand the climate change vulnerability of ski tourism in Turkey, where the industry has been growing rapidly in recent years. Finally, implications, conclusions, and suggestions are provided based on a comparative comprehension of the gaps to be fulfilled scientifi- cally and practically. 5 CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY OF SKI TOURISM IN GERMANY AND TURKEY LITERATURE REVIEW Contemporary Climate Change Climate Change Vulnerability Climate change is a phenomenon coeval with the The IPCC3 has defined “vulnerability” as “the history of Earth. For millions of years, the Earth’s degree to which a system is susceptible to, and climate has been changing due to astronomical, unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate astrophysical, and geological causes such as orbital change.” According to the IPCC definition, vulner- cycles, solar variation, plate tectonics, and volca- ability is a function of exposure, sensitivity, and nism. However, the contemporary climate change adaptive capacity of the system. Within this context, is one of a kind due to its dominant anthropogenic exposure refers to the magnitude and rate of climate cause. Human activities, such as extensive fossil change on the system, sensitivity indicates the fuel usage and deforestation, have generated an degree to which the system is directly or indirectly unprecedented increase in greenhouse gas emis- affected, and adaptive capacity is the adjustment sions since the Industrial Revolution, leading to a ability of the system to cope with or benefit from the surface temperature rise of 0.85oC since 1880.1 (potential) consequences of climate change. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change The debate among academics on the common (IPCC),2 the leading scientific authority on climate understanding of a definition for climate change change research, expects irreversible impacts from vulnerability and its interrelation to concepts such the ongoing climate change should the anthropo- as exposure, sensitivity, adaptive capacity, and resil- genic greenhouse gas emissions not be mitigated ience is ongoing. While some argue vulnerability is a as soon as possible. Moreover, their projections potential superset of its determinants (Fig. 1), others reveal that a warming would be inevitable for the may claim it as an intersection of those determi- 21st century, despite any best practice on mitigation, nants (Fig. 2). In this report, vulnerability is treated due to the lagged effects of previous emissions. simply as an umbrella concept encompassing the Therefore, global society’s acknowledgement of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of ski and adaptation to the ongoing and forthcoming tourism—the system—to climate change impacts. impacts of climate change is a vital issue in building The “exposure-sensitivity” determinant is dealt resilience. in one part by assessments of the current and the future impacts on ski tourism, while the “adaptive capacity” is discussed in terms of the ability to utilize the sector-specific adaptation options. The more the exposure-sensitivity and the less the adaptive capacity are, the more the vulnerability 1 D. L. Hartmann et al., “Observations: Atmosphere and Surface,” in and the less the resilience become. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovern- mental Panel on Climate Change, ed. T. F. Stocker et al. (Cambridge and New York: Cambridge University Press, 2013), 161. 2 IPCC, Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge: Cam- bridge University Press, 2007). 3 Ibid., 869-883. 6 Figure 1: Vulnerability as a Superset of its Figure 2: Vulnerability as an Intersection of its Determinants4 Determinants5 Tourism Industry and Climate Change employment.8 The total contribution of tourism to GWP will amount to 11.4 trillion USD (10.5%) by The tourism industry is one of the largest sectors 2025, and the contribution to employment will be of the global economy. In 2014, the number of 357 million jobs (10.7%).9 Further, the number of international tourist arrivals reached 1.13 billion, international tourist arrivals is expected to increase accounting for 1.25 trillion USD worth of expendi- to 1.8 billion by 2030.10 tures.6 In addition, the volume of domestic tourism is estimated to be five times the volume of inter- Despite its generous contributions to global 7 national tourism in terms of arrivals. Altogether, economic development and highly positive growth the industry makes up 10% of the Gross World expectations, the tourism industry is both a concern Product (GWP) by contributing 7.6 trillion USD and a victim of climate change. On the one hand, the worth of direct, indirect, and induced revenues, as industry contributes 5% of GHG emissions, 75% of 11 well as 277 million jobs, accounting for 9% of global which is generated by the transportation industry. 4 G. C. Gallopin, “Linkages between Vulnerability, Resilience, and Adaptive Capacity,” Global Environmental Change 16 (2006): 301. 8 “Travel & Tourism: Economic Impact 2015 World,” World Travel & 5 B. Smit and J. Wandel, “Adaptation, Adaptive Capacity and Vulnera- Tourism Council, accessed January 16, 2016, http://www.wttc.org/-/ bility,” Global Environmental Change 16 (2006): 286. media/files/reports/economic%20impact%20research/region- 6 “UNWTO Tourism Highlights 2015 Edition,” World Tourism Orga- al%202015/world2015.pdf. nization, accessed January 16, 2016, http://www.e-unwto.org/doi/ 9 Ibid. pdf/10.18111/9789284416899. 10 “UNWTO Tourism Highlights 2015 Edition.” 7 “Some Points