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Climate Change Sensitivity and Adaptation of Cross-Country Skiing in Northern Europe

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Climate Change Sensitivity and Adaptation of Cross-Country Skiing in Northern Europe UNIVERSITY OF COPENHAGEN FACULTY OF SCIENCE Photo: Magnus Östh, Visma Ski Classics MSc in Climate Change Erik Söderström Climate Change sensitivity and adaptation of cross-country skiing in Northern Europe Main supervisor Anne Busk Gravholt and co-supervisor Nina Lintzén Submitted: 08/08/2016 Institute: Faculty of Science Name of department: Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management Author: Erik Söderström Title: Climate Chance sensitivity and adaptation of cross-country skiing in Northern Europe Description: A survey-based study investigating how climate change has affected and will affect cross-country skiing among ski areas in Northern Europe. Main supervisor: Anne Busk Gravholt Co-supervisor: Nina Lintzén Submitted: 08/08/2016 2 Abstract ............................................................................................................................................... 4 Abbreviations .................................................................................................................................... 4 Introduction ........................................................................................................................................ 4 Background ........................................................................................................................................ 5 Importance of winter sport in general ............................................................................ 5 Importance of cross-country skiing .................................................................................. 6 Current and projected future climate change and its effects on seasonal snow parameters ...................................................................................................................... 7 How climate change is affecting winter sport and tourism .................................. 17 How climate change is affecting cross-country skiing ............................................ 18 Theoretical concept ....................................................................................................................... 19 Climate change adaptation ................................................................................................. 19 Climate change adaptation of cross-country skiing ................................................. 20 Adaptation for the individual skier ................................................................................ 20 Adaptation for the ski area ................................................................................................ 21 Technical solutions ............................................................................................................ 21 Business solutions and reduced dependency of snow and winter solutions .................................................................................................................................................... 26 Adaptation case study; winter Olympics ...................................................................... 27 Climate change mitigations and skiing .......................................................................... 28 Method .............................................................................................................................................. 29 Analysis ............................................................................................................................................. 33 The ski areas ............................................................................................................................. 33 Perception of climate change ............................................................................................. 38 Climate change adaption ..................................................................................................... 40 Financing climate change adaptation ............................................................................. 48 Diversification of activities ................................................................................................. 49 Climate mitigation at ski areas .......................................................................................... 51 Discussion ........................................................................................................................................ 52 Dependency of winter and cross-country skiing ...................................................... 52 Perception of climate change ............................................................................................. 53 Adaptation to climate change ............................................................................................ 55 Climate adaptation costs ...................................................................................................... 56 Diversification of activities ................................................................................................. 59 Carbon footprint ...................................................................................................................... 59 Climate change effects on the sport and leisure activity of cross-country skiing. ........................................................................................................................................... 60 Limitations and aspects for further research ......................................................................... 60 Conclusion ....................................................................................................................................... 61 Acknowledgement ......................................................................................................................... 62 Reference list ................................................................................................................................... 62 Appendix .......................................................................................................................................... 69 3 Abstract In Northern Europe cross-country skiing is part of the cultural heritage and an important sport and leisure activity. Climate change has already and will impact cross-country skiing in the future. There climate projection indicates an increase in temperature and a loss in the number of days with snow cover in almost the entire area. The role of ski areas and their adaptation action will be of increasingly importance in the future to provide cross-country skiing opportunities. This survey- based study investigates ski areas and their responses to climate change. By examine their exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity their vulnerability to the effects of climate change could be evaluated. The finding presents the large array of adaptation measures implemented and the effectiveness of them to lower the vulnerability of the ski area to climate change. However the difference among the ski areas were large and especially smaller ski areas, and to some extent public and southern ski areas are indicated to be more sensitive and having lower adaptive capacity. The expansion of track fees can increase the adaptive capacity for ski areas but the cultural aversion towards those fees may limit its future adaptive success. Abbreviations ASL Above sea level GHG Greenhouse gases IOC International Olympic Committee NH Northern Hemisphere NOK Norwegian kroner RCP Representive concentration pathway SCC Social cost of carbon SCD Snow cover duration SCE Snow cover Extent SD Snow depth SEK Swedish kronor SWE Snow water equivalent Introduction Large parts of the world population are living in areas where seasonal snow exists. In Europe, about half of the 800 million inhabitants live in areas that on average have snow cover in January (Füssel, Jol, and others 2012:73). Living in areas with snow cover allows for winter sport and recreation. The winter sport industry is huge in Europe, generating 50 billion euro annually (Füssel, Jol, and others 2012:212), with about 170 million skiing visits yearly (Scott and McBoyle 2006). In northern Europe, cross-country skiing is part of culture and everyday life, in some of the countries as many as 40% of the population are skiing annually (Pouta, Neuvonen, and Sievänen 2009; Sælen and Ericson 2013). Ongoing climate change is predicted to increase the annual mean temperature with amplification during the winter months resulting in a decrease in the snowpack depth and duration at most locations (Stocker 2014). This will affect winter outdoor activities and skiing particularly (Füssel, Jol, and others 2012:73). Most studies on climate change and skiing have been focused on downhill skiing (Pouta, Neuvonen, and Sievänen 2009) and are projecting a large decrease in the number of skiers in the future (Fukushima et al. 2002; Scott and McBoyle 2006). 4 Cross-country skiing is stated to be one of the most sensitive activities to climate change (Loomis and Crespi 1999) and are also foreseen to have a large decrease in the number of skiers, and skiing days per skier in the future as a result of climate change (Pouta, Neuvonen, and Sievänen 2009). Further on, climate change is expected to bring negative social effects, reducing wellbeing and the depletion of cross-country skiing tradition, as well as financial impacts in tourism regions (Landauer, Sievänen, and Neuvonen 2015). Climate change will negatively affect both the supply side of cross-country skiing (the ski areas) and the
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