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Risk, Uncertainty and Monetary Policy
Risk, Uncertainty and Monetary Policy Speech given by Charles Bean, Executive Director and Chief Economist of the Bank of England To Dow Jones, at City Club, Old Broad Street 31 October 2007 1 All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/speeches/default.aspx 1 Good evening! One of former US Secretary of Defence Donald Rumsfeld’s most noted musings runs thus: “…as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns - the ones we don't know we don't know.” For this rumination, Rumsfeld was awarded a ‘Foot in Mouth’ award from the Plain English Campaign. But in truth, it represents one of the pithier encapsulations of the economists’ distinction between risk and uncertainty of which I am aware. Risk applies to those random events to which one can attach probabilities, such as the number of times a fair coin comes up heads in 100 tosses. These are the ‘known unknowns’. In contrast, uncertainty – or more accurately Knightian uncertainty, after the Chicago economist Frank Knight – applies to random events to which it is difficult to attach probabilities, say because we have no previous experience of them or do not understand enough about their nature. An example might be the number of coins in this building right now. These are the ‘unknown unknowns’. The Monetary Policy Committee faces both sorts of randomness when it sets interest rates each month. -
The Knowns and the Known Unknowns
The Knowns and the Known Unknowns of Capital Requirements for Market Risks 20 June 2016 Jean-Paul Laurent1 Université Paris 1 Panthéon – Sorbonne, PRISM Sorbonne & Labex ReFi Abstract A new era is beginning for bank intermediation in financial markets. Under the leadership of the Trading Book Group of the Basel Committee, the calculation of risk weighted assets (RWAs) associated with market and trading book risks is being upended. The present reforms are a subtle compromise. On the one hand, they perpetuate the autonomous function for monitoring risks within banks, under the control of bank supervisors. On the other hand, they set up a safety net to avoid any drift linked to self-regulation. The emphasis here is placed on the uncertainties linked to the final calibration of the new framework and the implications for economic banking models and market intermediation. The article stresses operational issues linked to piloting this transformation process for regulated banks. Introduction A new era is beginning for bank intermediation in financial markets. Under the leadership of the Trading Book Group of the Basel Committee, the calculation of risk weighted assets (RWAs) associated with market and trading book risks is being upended. The Fundamental Review of the Trading Book (FRTB) led to the publication of a set rules in January 2016.2 It should be recalled that risk weighted assets are the denominator of the solvency ratio. In the first part of this text, the FRTB is situated in the vast movement that has reinforced regulatory and prudential requirements. The present reforms are a subtle compromise. On the one hand, they perpetuate the autonomous function for monitoring risks within banks, under the control of bank supervisors. -
Being Earnest with Collections — Known Unknowns: a Humanities Collection Gap-Analysis Project by Alice L
Being Earnest with Collections — Known Unknowns: A Humanities Collection Gap-Analysis Project by Alice L. Daugherty (Coordinator of Acquisitions & Electronic Resources, The University of Alabama) <[email protected]> Column Editor: Michael A. Arthur (Associate Professor, Head, Resource Acquisition & Discovery, The University of Alabama Libraries, Box 870266, Tuscaloosa, AL 35487; Phone: 205-348-1493; Fax: 205-348-6358) <[email protected]> Column Editor’s Note: In this month’s chasing large eBook packages are effective have permission to go over-budget and were edition of Being Earnest with Collections, I processes for building collections; however, advised to keep selection totals below allo- have asked my new colleague Alice Daugh- LSU Libraries’ administration wanted to do cation limits. Usually for annual purchases erty to talk about an important project she more to focus on print materials and ensure liaisons can extend a little over-budget and participated in while still at Louisiana State research recommended and curricular sup- funds are moved to cover overages, but mov- University. We are pleased that Alice joined porting titles necessary to the collections were ing funds was not an option for this project. us at The University of Alabama on June 1, actually in the collection. LSU Libraries has For logistical purposes, liaisons created 2017. I was intrigued about the project to ex- endured years of university- and state-im- project-specific, shared, discipline folders plore ways to address gaps in the humanities posed spending freezes (FY10, FY11, FY12, in Gobi to store title selections, and Gobi collection that developed because of fluctu- FY14, and FY15). -
Agenda and List of Participants
Agenda & List of Participants Land Economy for Sustainability Dialogue Series Rethinking the Land Economy: Keeping 1.5C in Sight 0900- 0930 Welcome and introduction This session will welcome participants and introduce the goals and objectives of this meeting, designed as a collective thinking session to explore opportunities for emissions reduction from the land-based sectors. It will consider the case for a shared strategy that complements technical know- how in tackling challenges associated with the political economy of structural transformation for the land economy. It will also discuss what constitutes success by 2020 and 2030. 0930 – 1100 Session 1: Setting the baseline Key questions to be addressed: • What is the scale of the challenge? • What do we understand in terms of feasibility of different options? • What are the complexities and barriers? This session will open with three short presentations • Land-based emissions reductions and the 1.5C challenge • Competition for land, food and water: implications of current trends • Obstacles and trade-offs The presentations will be followed by a facilitated discussion on the knowledge gaps and the known unknowns, as well as known barriers. 1120 – 1300 Mapping key opportunities and no-regret options This session will discuss existing and new opportunities for scaling land- based emissions reductions, based not only on mitigation potential but also wider social and environmental considerations including risks and co- benefits. It will begin with short remarks on the following ‘wedges’: • sustainable agricultural practice; • negative emissions; • waste and losses; • demand side interventions including sustainable and healthy diets and behavioural shifts. The discussion will focus on identifying a set of no-regret options that could be scaled immediately. -
Example Response to Announcement 2014
Response to Professional Services Procurement Bulletin No. 2012-07 Clinton County US 127 – Section 3 Item No. 8-108.00, 8-115.00 February 8, 2012 1957 House 2012 Pr oj ect I nfor mation | Page 1 Response TO Pr oposal FOR Per sonal ser vi ce contr act CLINTON COUNTY-US127-I TEM NO. 8-108.00 & 8-115.00 SECTI ON 3 Firm Name House Inc. Pr oj ect No./ 8-108.00 & 8-115.00 Firm Address: 1957 Doctors Lane Lexington, KY 40505 County: Clinton Pr ocur ement T el ephone: (859) 491-1363 Bulletin: 2012-07 Adver t i sement Contact Name: Chr i s Taub, PE, PLS Dat e: January 10, 2012 E-Mai l Addr ess: [email protected] Location of Offices(s) wher e wor k is to be Response Due Per f or med: Dat e: Lexington, Kentucky February 8, 2012 I cer t i f y that the infor mation included within this document i s, to the best of my k nowl edge, cor r ect as of the date indicated bel ow: I certify that H ouse I nc. is cur r ent l y r egi st er ed by the Commonwealth of K ent uck y in accor dance with KRS 322.060 to perform the engi neer i ng ser vi ces needed for this pr oj ect , and our Kentucky Regi st r at i on Number is 219. I cer t i f y to the best of my k nowl edge, House I nc. -
Reverend Franks Installation 1.7.18.Pub
United Church of Christ North Church of Portsmouth An Open and Affirming Congregation of the United Church of Christ 3 January 7, 2018 3 PM INSTALLATION SERVICE FOR REV. FRANK NEWSOME PRELUDE Organist Nathan Amsden WELCOME Liz Good—Moderator of North Church CALL TO WORSHIP (responsive) Nancy Lehoux-Chair of Pastor Search Committee Leader: To a society that lives in the shadowed recesses of doubt and fear, All: God calls us to be light. Leader: To a world where every appetite is fed until there is no taste to life, All: God calls us to be salt. Leader: To a time when loyalties are discarded as easily as the clothes we wear, All: God calls us to be faithful. Leader: Shine on us gathered here today as we focus on servanthood. All: Shine God, shine us, so that the light will penetrate the darkness with hope. *PROCESSIONAL HYMN God of Grace and Glory #366 (we welcome clergy and faith leaders from local churches, mosques, temples, etc) *INVOCATION Rev. William Lutz SPECIAL MUSIC Alathea SCRIPTURE Craig Hodgson and Janet Cushing- members of pastor search committee Hebrew Scriptures: Psalm 29: 1-11 Gospel lesson: Matthew 2: 1-12 SERMON A Two-Faced Faith Rev. Robert Chase SPECIAL MUSIC Alathea ORDER FOR INSTALLATION OF A PASTOR GREETING ( Representatives from the Committee on Ministry for the Rockingham Asso- ciation of the New Hampshire Conference of the United Church of Christ will conduct the Or- der of Installation—Rev. Renee Rouse, Dave Timmerman, Rev. Robert Fellows, Eric Small) PRESENTATION Liz Good—North Church Moderator EXHORTATION COVENANT PRAYER OF INSTALLATION DECLARATION *HYMN We are marching in the light of God (insert) *BENEDICTION (responsive) May the Lord bless you and keep you; The Lord make his face to shine upon you, and be gracious unto you; The Lord lift up the Lord’s countenance upon you, and give you peace. -
Known Unknowns”
Global Fixed Income Bulletin Understanding the “Known Unknowns” FIXED INCOME | GLOBAL FIXED INCOME TEAM | MACRO INSIGHT | FEBRUARY 2017 Outlook TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 Outlook • Despite uncertainties surrounding the timing and exact specification of the Trump administration’s policies, we see the possibility of real reforms and actions (e.g., tax and spending) 2 Developed Market Interest Rates and that could sustain positive economic momentum in the U.S. Currency Outlook With unemployment low and wages rising, albeit gradually, inflation should continue to move higher. This will allow the 2 EM Outlook Fed to continue to raise interest rates. However, the pace is not likely to increase unless one of two conditions is met: (1) 3 Credit Outlook inflation accelerates; and (2) fiscal policy becomes much more expansionary. In the interim, the probability of recession has fallen with the price of more economic variability down the road: 3 Securitized Outlook The old-fashioned business cycle may be coming back! 4 Market Summary • For the first time since 2013, we are witnessing several bond bearish forces arriving simultaneously: improving economic data/rising inflation, both in the U.S. and the rest of the world, 5 Developed Markets less easy monetary policy, easier fiscal policy and rising risk premiums. Basically, a reversal of all the factors that powered 6 Emerging Markets yields lower over the last several years. We remain modestly underweight overall duration to help protect portfolios from 6 External further improvements in growth and inflation. • We still expect the EM/DM growth differential to recover during 7 Domestic 2017 in favor of EM as the negative growth impacts from Brazil and Russia lessen. -
Baylor University Commencement May Seventh and Eighth, Two Thousand Twenty-One
B AYLOR U NIVERSITY C OMMEN C EMENT May Seventh and Eighth, Two Thousand Twenty-one McLane Stadium . Waco, Texas Baylor University Commencement May Seventh and Eighth, Two Thousand Twenty-one Table of Contents 2 Program for Friday Morning The School of Engineering and Computer Science The School of Education The College of Arts & Sciences The Graduate School 3 List of Degrees Presented in Friday Morning Ceremony 8 Program for Friday Afternoon The School of Music The College of Arts & Sciences The Graduate School 9 List of Degrees Presented in Friday Afternoon Ceremony 14 Program for Saturday Morning The Robbins College of Health and Human Sciences The Diana R. Garland School of Social Work The Louise Herrington School of Nursing The Graduate School 15 List of Degrees Presented in Saturday Morning Ceremony 20 Program for Saturday Afternoon The Hankamer School of Business The Graduate School 21 List of Degrees Presented in Saturday Afternoon Ceremony 26 Commencement Traditions A History of Baylor Commencement Academic Regalia The Diploma Graduating with Latin Honors Baylor Interdisciplinary Core Official Baylor Ring Senior Class Gift 28 Faculty Ushers for Commencement Faculty Marshals for Commencement Ceremony Musicians 29 General Information The National Anthem Back Cover “That Good Old Baylor Line” 1 The School of Engineering and Computer Science, The School of Education, The College of Arts & Sciences, and The Graduate School Friday, May 7, 2021, Nine o’clock in the Morning – McLane Stadium Prelude Presentation of Degree Candidates Ceremonial Piece on CWM Rhondda by William Mac Davis President Livingstone The Earle of Oxford’s March by William Byrd, arranged by Assisted by Dr. -
Better by Design?
Journal Issue 1 2015 Better by design? John Mathers questions whether form always follows function Sophie Thomas explores how design can kickstart the circular economy George Monbiot asks where the wild things are in rural Britain Did you know? Do you know RSA House can host your private someone party as well as your conference. who would make a great Fellow? Your nominations are a great way to add the expertise and enthusiasm of friends and colleagues to the Fellowship community. You can nominate them online at www.theRSA.org/nominate. We will send a personalised invitation on your behalf and notify you if your nominee becomes a Fellow. To book your event contact us 020 7930 5115 Help the RSA to engage others in our work to build a more capable and inclusive society together. or email [email protected] www.thersa.org/hire-rsa-house RSA0510_fellowship_advert_AMENDED_03.13.indd 1 08/03/2013 16:08 RSA_event v1.indd 1 20/03/2015 16:19 “WHILE AESTHETIC APPEAL IS VITALLY IMPORTANT IN MANY DESIGN CONTEXTS, IT IS NOT AN ESSENTIAL OR DEFINING ELEMENT” JOHN MATHERS, PAGE 24 REGULARS FEATURES 06 UPDATE 10 DESIGN 30 ENVIRONMENT The latest RSA news Known unknowns Nature’s way Jamer Hunt argues for a design Helping the environment means 09 PREVIEW profession that aims to be forward- letting nature intervene, not Events programme highlights looking on all fronts, especially keeping it in a state of suspended when it comes to considering animation, says George Monbiot 46 NEW FELLOWS / REPLY the unintended consequences Introducing seven new RSA of their -
House Md S06 Swesub
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View Our 2020 Annual Report
ANNUAL REPORT 2020-A YEAR OF CHANGE EVEN APART, WE FIND WAYS TO BE #BIGGERTOGETHER #defendpotential Designed by: Mel Ulloa BIG BROTHERS BIG SISTERS OF NORTHERN NEVADA OUR MISSION The mission of Big Brothers Big Sisters of Northern Nevada is to create and support one-to-one mentoring relationships that ignite the power and promise of youth. In 2020, that mission only became more urgent as our kids adapted to a new way of life. Now more than ever, we need Bigs in our HIGHLIGHTS Littles’ corners to help #defendtheirpotential. We want to recognize our community for sustaining BBBSNN through a difficult year. We are grateful for your faith in a program that seeks to build connections across northern Nevada’s generations, economic classes, cultures, and more. It has been a pleasure to watch our matches grow in their understanding and support of each other despite the challenges of the past year, and we look forward to bringing the life-changing influence of mentoring to more children in 2021. In 2020, 100% of age-eligible Littles graduated high school, compared to 78% of their peers of similar socio-economic background county-wide. And in a survey of adult program alumni: 75% say their relationship with their Big helped a lot in making better choices through their childhood. 86% say their Big changed their perspective on what they thought was possible in life. 90% report their Big made them feel better about themselves, and 84% say being a Little has influenced them to have confidence in their abilities. BIG BROTHERS BIG SISTERS OF NORTHERN -
ZBA/Planning Commission Minutes
The Mechanicville Zoning/Planning Board held a meeting at the Mechanicville Public Works Building, 4 Industrial Park Road, Mechanicville, New York on November 12, 2019. Frank Scirocco opened the meeting at 7:00 P.M. The Pledge of Allegiance was led by Robert Chase. Roll Call: Frank Scirocco - present Robert Chase - present Richard Delaney - present Keith Johnson - present Ed Morcone - present Raymond Martin - absent Sam Carabis - present Frank Scirocco: We have four (4) sets of minutes, has everyone had a chance to go over them? Satisfied? I am not going to go one by one, can I have a motion to accept all four, April, May, August, and September. Motion By: Robert Chase Seconded By: Sam Carabis Richard Delaney: I don’t know if this is the time but I had a question about the status of one of the meetings. Is this the time to ask that? Frank Scirocco: You can ask. I don’t have a copy of them in front of me. Which month are we talking about? Richard Delaney: The August meeting. Frank Scirocco: We can abstain from the August meeting if you would like. Richard Delaney: Ok, I just want to clarify a couple of things. Bob Chase: I will make my motion for everything but the August meeting. Frank Scirocco: The motion is to approve April, May and September. Ayes: 6 Nays: 0 Frank Scirocco: We can do August at the next meeting. We will be reviewing a sketch plan for a site plan review for Steve Dumas, 2459 River Road, to build a !1 multi-family residence on Grove Street.