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VULNERABILITY Through the Eyes of the VULNERABILITY VULNERABLE Through the Eyes of the VULNERABLE Climate Change Induced Uncertainties and Nepal ' s Development Predicaments Climate Change Induced Uncertainties and Nepal's Development Predicaments Nepal Climate Vulnerability Study Team (NCVST) October 2009 VULNERABILITY Through the Eyes of the VULNERABLE Climate Change Induced Uncertainties and Nepal's Development Predicaments Climate ChangeNepal Climate Vulnerability Induced Study Team (NCVST) October 2009 Uncertainties and Nepal's Development Predicaments NEPAL CLIMATE VULNERABILITY STUDY © Copyright, ISET-N and ISET 2009 Reasonable amount of text from this report can be quoted provided the source is acknowledged and ISET-N and ISET informed. TEAM (NCVST) ISBN: 978-9937-2-1828-3 Published by Institute for Social and Environmental Transition-Nepal (ISET-N) ISET-Nepal GPO Box: 3971; Tel: 977-1-4720667, 4720744; Fax: 977-1-5542354 E-mail: [email protected]; and Ajaya Dixit Institute for Social and Environmental Transition (ISET) 948 North Dipak Gyawali Street, Ste. 9, Boulder, CO 80304, USA Tel: 720-564-0650, Fax: 720-564-0653, www.i-s-e-t.org Madhukar Upadhya Anil Pokhrel 2nd reprint with some improvements and corrections. Disclaimer This report was prepared for the Kathmandu to Copenhagen 2009: The ISET Way Forward for Nepal conference in Kathmandu on 2nd September 2009. Its primary purpose is to bring the voices from the grassroots to Fawad Khan the fore, to assemble together the knowns and the unknowns on Dr Sarah Opitz-Stapleton climate change in the Nepal Himalaya, and to explore potential directions for future research as well as adaptive development activities. Dr Marcus Moench As an ongoing research initiative, its information range is far from exhaustive, and its conclusions only exploratory and tentative. To improve and refine future research and development initiatives, Nepal Climate Vulnerability Study Team (NCVST) actively solicits comments on this report, which should be sent to: [email protected]; SCHOOL OF GEOGRAPHY AND ENVIRONMENT [email protected] UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD Dr Mark New Gil Lizcano Citation as: NCVST (2009) Vulnerability Through the Eyes of Carol McSweeney Vulnerable: Climate Change Induced Uncertainties and Nepal’s Muhammad Rahiz Development Predicaments, Institute for Social and Environmental Transition-Nepal (ISET-N, Kathmandu) and Institute for Social and Environmental Transition (ISET, Boulder, Colorado) for Nepal Climate Vulnerability Study Team (NCVST) Kathmandu. PRACTICAL ACTION Nepal Gehendra Gurung Layout Design: Digiscan Pre-press, Naxal, Kathmandu Dr Ahsan Uddin Ahmed, CGC Bangladesh Cover Photo by: Ajaya Dixit, Saving Assets in Sunsari Keshav Sharma Nepal Climate Vulnerability Study Team (NCVST) CONTENTS CHAPTER 1: Climate Conundrum 1 CHAPTER 2: Mining Climate Change Lessons from Signature Events 7 The 1998 Rohini River and other Tarai floods 8 2008 Koshi embankment breach 9 2008 flooding in Far-West Nepal 13 1993 Mid-mountain cloudbursts and floods 14 Recent glacial lake outburst floods 19 2008/2009 Winter drought 21 2009 Forest fires 22 2009 Cholera epidemic in the mid-western hills 26 Conclusion 30 CHAPTER 3: A Toad’s Eye View: Vulnerability Through the Eyes of the Vulnerable 31 National consultation among experts 34 Central region consultation in Kathmandu 35 Narayani River region consultation in Pokhara 36 Karnali River region consultation in Nepalgunj 38 Sapta Koshi River region consultation in Biratnagar 40 General learning 43 CHAPTER 4: Climate Change Projections for Nepal 45 Climate of Nepal 46 Limitations of climate models 47 Climate change projections for Nepal 51 Summary of projections from GCMs for Nepal 51 Summary climate change projections from RCMs for Nepal 53 CHAPTER 5: The Socio-economic Scenario for Compensating Adaptation 67 The Nepali household 68 Impacts 68 Adaptation strategies 72 Adaptation to climate change 75 Energy for adaptation 77 Conclusions 84 CHAPTER 6: Transiting Forward along Resilient Pathways 87 Key concerns 88 Wicked problem, uncomfortable knowledge and clumsy solution 94 Bibliographical References 96 LIST OF TABLES, FIGURES AND BOXES TABLES Table 2.1: Damage caused by the 2008 flooding in Far-West Nepal 13 Table 2.2: Human and livestock damage caused by the 1993 mid-hill flooding 15 Table 2.3: Reduction in storage capacity 18 Table 2.4: Numbers of health-related institutions in Jajarkot District 27 Table 2.5: Water supply service levels 28 Table 2.6: Drinking water and sanitation coverage by region 28 Table 2.7: Drinking water and sanitation coverage by development region 28 Table 2.8: Condition of coverage according to WUMP 29 Table 3.1: Summary matrix of Sapta Koshi consultation 37 Table 3.2: Summary matrix of Narayani River consultations 39 Table 3.3: Summary matrix of Karnali Region consultation 41 Table 4.1: GCMs used in AR4 that reasonably hindcast features of the Indian summer monsoon 50 Table 4.2: GCMs used to prepare climate projections for Nepal 51 Table 4.3: RCMs used to prepare climate projections for Nepal 52 Table 4.4: Change in mean temperature from GCM projections. 56 Table 4.5: Change in frequency of hot days from GCM projections. 56 Table 4.6: Change in frequency of hot nights 56 Table 4.7: Change in monthly precipitation 59 Table 4.8: Change in precipitation as heavy events 59 Table 4.9: Change in maximum 1-day rainfall 59 Table 4.10: Change in maximum 5-day rainfall 60 Table 5.1: Average monthly household income by sector 69 Table 5.2: Projected damage to an average Nepali family (in NPR) 70 Table 5.3: Impact of forest fires 71 Table 5.4: Labour force in the formal and informal sectors 73 Table 5.5: Actual and targeted sectoral growth rates of GDP 75 Table 5.7: Comparison of approaches to energy, growth, resilience and climate-proofing 84 FIGURES Figure 2.1: Location of signature events 7 Figure 2.2: Rohini river system 8 Figure 2.3: Koshi embankment breach 10 Figure 2.4: 2008 Flood affected region of the Far-West Nepal 14 Figure 2.5: 1993 cloudburst and 24 hour rainfall recorded at Markhu 15 Figure 2.6: Impact of 1993 cloudburst 16 Figure 2.7: Temporary landslide dam on a river (Bishyari) 18 Figure 2.8: Glacial lake outburst flood 20 Figure 2.9: Comparison of average winter (November to February) rainfall at eight selected weather stations 21 Figure 2.10 a: Nepal's food defecit districts 22 Figure 2.10 b: Extent of drought in Nepal 23 Figure 2.11: Satellite Image of forest fire in Nepal 24 Figure 2.12: Jajarkot and adjoining districts and the locations of health and sub-health posts 27 Figure 3.1: Transects in three regions 32 Figure 3.2: Rajbiraj-Sagarmatha, Bhairawa-Mustang and Nepalgunj-Jumla transects 33 Figure 4.1: Regions of Nepal, 47 Figure 4.2: Coarse resolution annual precipitation distribution 48 Figure 4.3: Coarse resolution (0.25 x 0.25 ° latitude/longitude) annual precipitation distribution from the TRMM satellite 49 Figure 4.4: Observed and projected changes in mean temperature over Nepal 54 Figure 4.5: Spatial pattern of GCM projections of mean temperature over Nepal and surrounding areas,for the A2 scenario, for three 10-year periods in the future. 55 Figure 4.6: Observed and projected changes in mean precipitation over Nepal 57 Figure 4.7: Spatial pattern of GCM projections of mean precipitation change over Nepal andsurrounding areas, for the A2 scenario, over three 10-year periods in the future. 58 Figure 4.8: Projected changes in winter and monsoon mean temperature and precipitation from theReg CM3-ECHAM5 simulations, A2 emissions scenario 60 Figure 4.9: Projected changes in winter and monsoon mean temperature and precipitation from the PRECIS-HadCM3 simulations, A2 emissions scenario 61 Figure 4.10: Projected changes in winter and monsoon mean temperature and precipitation from thePRECIS-HadCM3 simulations, A2 emissions scenario 62 Figure 4.11: Spatial pattern of GCM projectionsof change in frequency of "hot days"relative to hot day frequency over 1970-1999,under the A2 emission scenario. 63 Figure 4.12: Spatial pattern of GCM projections ofchange in frequency of "hot nights"relative to hot night frequency over 1970-1999,under the A2 emission scenario. 63 Figure 4.13: Spatial pattern of GCM projectionsof change in proportion of precipitation fallingin heavy events, relative to 1970-1999, underthe A2 emission scenario. 64 Figure 4.14: Spatial pattern of GCMprojections of change in maximum 1-day rainfall, relative to 1970-1999, under the A2 emission scenario. 64 Figure 4.15: Spatial pattern of GCM projections of change in maximum 5-day rainfall, relative to 1 970-1999, under the A2 emission scenario. 65 Figure 5.1: Impact of climate change on flood damages 70 Figure 5.2: Household consumption patterns 74 Figure 5.3: Sectoral contribution to GDP 75 Figure 5.4: Nepal energy mix by source 78 Figure 5.5: Trends in Nepal’s remittance Flow 83 BOXES Box 2.1: Threat to biodiversity 25 Box 2.2: Drinking water services 28 Box 5.1: Kagbeni wind turbine experiment 80 Box 5.2: Remittances 83 Box 6.1: Bhattedanda milkway 90 ACRONYMS BPC : Butwal Power Company CDM : Clean Development Mechanism DHM : Department of Hydrology and Meteorology DSCWM : Department of Soil Conservation and Watershed Management DST : Desakota Study Team GCM : General Circulation Model/Global Climate Model GDP : Gross Domestic Product GLOF : Glacial Lake Outburst Flood HDI : Human Development Index ICIMOD : International Center for Integrated Mountain Development IDDWSS : International Decade for Drinking Water Supply and Sanitation INPS : Integrated