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THE PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIVERSITY SCHREYER HONORS COLLEGE COLLEGE OF INFORMATION SCIENCES AND TECHNOLOGY AND DEPARTMENT OF POLITICAL SCIENCE WHEN DEMOCRACIES REPRESS: DEMOCRATIC REPRESSION OF NONVIOLENT ISLAMIST GROUPS AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF POLITICAL VIOLENCE PETER VINING Summer 2011 A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for baccalaureate degrees in Security and Risk Analysis and International Politics with interdisciplinary honors in Security and Risk Analysis and International Politics Reviewed and approved* by the following: Philip Schrodt Professor of Political Science Thesis Supervisor William McGill Assistant Professor of Information Sciences and Technology Honors Adviser Michael Berkman Professor of Political Science Honors Adviser * Signatures are on file in the Schreyer Honors College i Abstract Despite having reputations for tolerating non-violent political dissent, it is well-known that democracies don‟t always behave “democratically” towards political dissenters. Examples of repressive behavior towards non-violent civil rights activists, communists and ethno-nationalist groups during the 20th century provide historical examples to demonstrate that high polity scores don‟t always reflect tolerance for dissent in democratic states. More recently, democratic governments have struggled over how to behave towards dissenting Islamist groups. Some Islamist have supported or even committed acts of political violence against democracies. Many others, however, have adopted and practiced methods that are purely non-violent, despite radical ideologies. With respect to non-violent Islamist groups, democracies have taken varying approaches; some have tolerated their activities as free speech, while others have constrained them. A few democracies have even banned non-violent Islamist groups for reasons that are idiosyncratic to their legal systems and historical experiences. In most cases of democratic constraint and/or banning of non-violent Islamist groups, prevention of radicalization and subsequent political violence (in the form of terrorism) was generally to account. Does silencing non-violent rhetoric prevent radicalization and political violence in democracies? How might a democracy‟s use of repression against non-violent political dissenters affect the likelihood of subsequent political violence? Moreover, how do repressed activists groups respond in a democratic context? This paper investigates democratic repression of non-violent Islamist groups and how repression is associated with the likelihood of political violence in a democratic context. Consistent with previous research on the group I argue that when states repress non-violent activists, the activists resort to informal networks for reorganization and recruitment. These informal networks (such as anonymous web forums and chat rooms) are already in use by other illegal groups, including those that use and/or support political violence. When repressed activists adapt by resorting to these informal channels in democracies, their personal networks increasingly overlap with those of other proscribed groups. Thus as social solidarity seekers who are unable to organize openly, once-peaceful activists are more likely to be radicalized and support or even carry out acts of political violence when they are repressed. I argue that this phenomenon occurs both domestically and internationally, because the fluidity of informal channels leveraged by repressed activists transcends borders. As a result, democratic repression can also lead to an unintended consequence of radicalized activist proliferation abroad. ii TABLE OF CONTENTS Abstract…………………………………………………………………………………………..i Acknowledgements…………………………………………………………………………..… iii Introduction……………………………………………………………………………………... 1 Section 1: Networks, Organizations, and Adaptive Responses to State Repression……………. 6 Section 2: Comparing Cases of Democratic Repression in Democracies……………………….19 Section 3: Using Network Analysis to Study Change in Activist Organizational Affiliations…30 Section 4: Preliminary Findings…………………………………………………………………48 Section 5: Challenges, Next Steps and Implications of the Research…………………………...54 References……………………………………………………………………………………….57 Appendix A: Case Studies of Democratic Repression……………………………………..……61 Case Studies References........................................................................................................…...74 Appendix B: Peaceful, Violent and “Grey Area” Islamist Organizations………………………75 Appendix C: Approximating the HBT Membership Network by Proximity in Text…………...83 Appendix D: Aggregate Associations of HBT Membership, HBT Organization and States…..87 iii Acknowledgements I am indebted to many people whose time and assistance have enabled me to complete this thesis and continue my graduate studies in the social sciences. First and foremost, I'd like to thank John Horgan, whose example and support have enabled my continued graduate education at Penn State, while further piquing my interest in social research. I'd also like to thank Philip Schrodt, Donna Bahry, Michael Berkman and William McGill, whose time and helpful comments have enabled me to complete this thesis. Furthermore, I am grateful to Doug Lemke, Scott Bennett, Gretchen Casper and Bumba Mukherjee, all of whom have also assisted me greatly in my pursuit of further graduate education in the social sciences. 1 Introduction Scholars of comparative politics and international relations rely heavily on regime typologies during research. Despite recent arguements that question their versatility and comparability (Cheibub, Gandhi & Vreeland, 2010), scales such as Polity or Freedom House are usefully leveraged to test arguments about behaviors associated with different types of regimes. Other scholars rely on qualitative and more nuanced taxonomies of regimes, such as those proposed by Geddes (2003), Bratton & Van de Walle (1994) or Gandhi & Przeworski (2007). From these typologies, prevailing theories of state behavior have developed that frequently characterize regimes in terms of democratic or autocratic. Democracies, for example, are expected to facilitate cooperative social norms (Putnam, 1993), allocate resources through stable electoral and party institutions (Iverson & Soskice, 2007; Mainwaring & Zoco, 2007; Carey & Shugart, 1995), and accommodate political dissent by subjecting those institutions to popular participation and competition (Huntington, 1991). Autocracies, in contrast, are expected to monopolize resource allocations for an exclusive ruling subset (Ross, 2001; Olson, 1993) and repress or encapsulate potential political opposition (Gandhi & Przeworski, 2007; Carey, 2006; Gurr, 1970). Focusing in particular on the democratic regularity of tolerance for political dissent, scholars have suggested that the free expression and participation of dissenters within a democratic electoral system decreases the likelihood of those dissenters resorting to violent rebellion in order to resolve their grievances Gurr (1970). In his analysis of civil conflict, Gurr argues that democratic institutions offer mechanisms through which dissent can be channeled peacefully within a democratic regime. More recent findings do suggest that established 2 democracies are relatively less-afflicted by violent civil conflict and civil war than non- democracies (Lacina, 2006; Hegre, 2002). In contrast to democracies, Gurr (1970) argues that autocracies use repression in order to prevent and mitigate civil conflict in all of its forms; when able to, they construct internal monitoring and enforcement mechanisms that are designed to silence and/or eliminate dissenters before they can foment rebellion. Consistent with this logic, Hegre‟s (2002) study also found that established autocracies were indeed less likely to experience civil war than non-autocracies. While these characterizations of regime behaviors towards political dissent have led scholars to expect state behaviors that often prove empirically typical, it is well-known that democratic states do not always behave “democratically,” and that autocratic states do not always behave “autocratically” as might be expected. When focusing on the expectation of democratic tolerance for non-violent political dissent, examples abound to demonstrate that democracies, at times, can and do use tools of repression in order to silence or even eliminate non-violent dissenters. Historical examples include early democratic Europe‟s repression of colonial subjects in Africa (Mamdani, 2001), South African repression of Black Nationalist groups prior to the end of apartheid, and American repression of identified leftist subversives during the 1950s, as well as civil rights activists during the 1960s. More recently, some democracies have repressed the activities of nonviolent Islamist groups to varying extents. Laws passed in France, Germany, the United Kingdom, United States and elsewhere have restricted and/or banned the activities of specific non-violent Islamist groups for varying reasons, most of which relate to security issues and the global “War on Terror.” Additional laws have passed in democratic countries that restrict the practicing of cultural customs often associated with Islam; France‟s banning of wearing hijabs in public is a prime example. 3 This paper does not examine the normative ramifications of “democratic repression,” but rather investigates what security implications such behavior might have for the states exhibiting it. Specifically: how might