Lesswrong Diaspora 2016 Survey
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Infinite Ethics
INFINITE ETHICS Nick Bostrom Faculty of Philosophy Oxford University [Published in Analysis and Metaphysics, Vol. 10 (2011): pp. 9-59] [This is the final version. Earlier versions: 2003, 2005, 2008, 2009] www.nickbostrom.com ABSTRACT Aggregative consequentialism and several other popular moral theories are threatened with paralysis: when coupled with some plausible assumptions, they seem to imply that it is always ethically indifferent what you do. Modern cosmology teaches that the world might well contain an infinite number of happy and sad people and other candidate value-bearing locations. Aggregative ethics implies that such a world contains an infinite amount of positive value and an infinite amount of negative value. You can affect only a finite amount of good or bad. In standard cardinal arithmetic, an infinite quantity is unchanged by the addition or subtraction of any finite quantity. So it appears you cannot change the value of the world. Modifications of aggregationism aimed at resolving the paralysis are only partially effective and cause severe side effects, including problems of “fanaticism”, “distortion”, and erosion of the intuitions that originally motivated the theory. Is the infinitarian challenge fatal? 1. The challenge 1.1. The threat of infinitarian paralysis When we gaze at the starry sky at night and try to think of humanity from a “cosmic point of view”, we feel small. Human history, with all its earnest strivings, triumphs, and tragedies can remind us of a colony of ants, laboring frantically to rearrange the needles of their little ephemeral stack. We brush such late-night rumination aside in our daily life and analytic 1 philosophy. -
Apocalypse Now? Initial Lessons from the Covid-19 Pandemic for the Governance of Existential and Global Catastrophic Risks
journal of international humanitarian legal studies 11 (2020) 295-310 brill.com/ihls Apocalypse Now? Initial Lessons from the Covid-19 Pandemic for the Governance of Existential and Global Catastrophic Risks Hin-Yan Liu, Kristian Lauta and Matthijs Maas Faculty of Law, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark [email protected]; [email protected]; [email protected] Abstract This paper explores the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic through the framework of exis- tential risks – a class of extreme risks that threaten the entire future of humanity. In doing so, we tease out three lessons: (1) possible reasons underlying the limits and shortfalls of international law, international institutions and other actors which Covid-19 has revealed, and what they reveal about the resilience or fragility of institu- tional frameworks in the face of existential risks; (2) using Covid-19 to test and refine our prior ‘Boring Apocalypses’ model for understanding the interplay of hazards, vul- nerabilities and exposures in facilitating a particular disaster, or magnifying its effects; and (3) to extrapolate some possible futures for existential risk scholarship and governance. Keywords Covid-19 – pandemics – existential risks – global catastrophic risks – boring apocalypses 1 Introduction: Our First ‘Brush’ with Existential Risk? All too suddenly, yesterday’s ‘impossibilities’ have turned into today’s ‘condi- tions’. The impossible has already happened, and quickly. The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, both directly and as manifested through the far-reaching global societal responses to it, signal a jarring departure away from even the © koninklijke brill nv, leiden, 2020 | doi:10.1163/18781527-01102004Downloaded from Brill.com09/27/2021 12:13:00AM via free access <UN> 296 Liu, Lauta and Maas recent past, and suggest that our futures will be profoundly different in its af- termath. -
Givedirectly
GiveDirectly GiveDirectly provides unconditional cash transfers using cell phone technology to some of the world’s poorest people, as well as refugees, urban youth, and disaster victims. They also are currently running a historic Universal Basic Income initiative, delivering a basic income to 20,000+ people in Kenya in a 12-year study. United States (USD) Donate to GiveDirectly Please select your country & currency. Donations are tax-deductible in the country selected. Founded in Moved Delivered cash to 88% of donations sent to families 2009 US$140M 130K in poverty families Other ways to donate We recommend that gifts up to $1,000 be made online by credit card. If you are giving more than $1,000, please consider one of these alternatives. Check Bank Transfer Donor Advised Fund Cryptocurrencies Stocks or Shares Bequests Corporate Matching Program The problem: traditional methods of international giving are complex — and often inefficient Often, donors give money to a charity, which then passes along the funds to partners at the local level. This makes it difficult for donors to determine how their money will be used and whether it will reach its intended recipients. Additionally, charities often provide interventions that may not be what the recipients actually need to improve their lives. Such an approach can treat recipients as passive beneficiaries rather than knowledgeable and empowered shapers of their own lives. The solution: unconditional cash transfers Most poverty relief initiatives require complicated infrastructure, and alleviate the symptoms of poverty rather than striking at the source. By contrast, unconditional cash transfers are straightforward, providing funds to some of the poorest people in the world so that they can buy the essentials they need to set themselves up for future success. -
Evidence-Based Policy Cause Area Report
Evidence-Based Policy Cause Area Report AUTHOR: 11/18 MARINELLA CAPRIATI, DPHIL 1 — Founders Pledge Animal Welfare Executive Summary By supporting increased use of evidence in the governments of low- and middle-income countries, donors can dramatically increase their impact on the lives of people living in poverty. This report explores how focusing on evidence-based policy provides an opportunity for leverage, and presents the most promising organisation we identified in this area. A high-risk/high-return opportunity for leverage In the 2013 report ‘The State of the Poor’, the World Bank reported that, as of 2010, roughly 83% of people in extreme poverty lived in countries classified as ‘lower-middle income’ or below. By far the most resources spent on tackling poverty come from local governments. American think tank the Brookings Institution found that, in 2011, $2.3 trillion of the $2.8 trillion spent on financing development came from domestic government revenues in the countries affected. There are often large differences in the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of social programs— the amount of good done per dollar spent can vary significantly across programs. Employing evidence allows us to identify the most cost-effective social programs. This is useful information for donors choosing which charity to support, but also for governments choosing which programs to implement, and how. This suggests that employing philanthropic funding to improve the effectiveness of policymaking in low- and middle-income countries is likely to constitute an exceptional opportunity for leverage: by supporting the production and use of evidence in low- and middle-income countries, donors can potentially enable policy makers to implement more effective policies, thereby reaching many more people than direct interventions. -
Non-Paywalled
Wringing the Most Good Out of a FACEBOOK FORTUNE SAN FRANCISCO itting behind a laptop affixed with a decal of a child reaching for an GIVING apple, an illustration from Shel Silverstein’s The Giving Tree, Cari Tuna quips about endowing a Tuna Room in the Bass Library at Yale Univer- sity, her alma mater. But it’s unlikely any of the fortune that she and her husband, Face- By MEGAN O’NEIL Sbook co-founder Dustin Moskovitz, command — estimated by Forbes at more than $9 billion — will ever be used to name a building. Five years after they signed the Giving Pledge, the youngest on the list of billionaires promising to donate half of their wealth, the couple is embarking on what will start at double-digit millions of dollars in giving to an eclectic range of causes, from overhauling the criminal-justice system to minimizing the potential risks from advanced artificial intelligence. To figure out where to give, they created the Open Philanthropy Project, which uses academic research, among other things, to identify high-poten- tial, overlooked funding opportunities. Ms. Tuna, a former Wall Street Journal reporter, hopes the approach will influence other wealthy donors in Silicon The youngest Valley and beyond who, like her, seek the biggest possible returns for their philanthropic dollars. Already, a co-founder of Instagram and his spouse have made a $750,000 signers of the commitment to support the project. What’s more, Ms. Tuna and those working alongside her at the Open Philanthropy Project are documenting every step online — sometimes in Giving Pledge are eyebrow-raising detail — for the world to follow along. -
Cognitive Biases Nn Discussing Cognitive Biases with Colleagues and Pupils
The RSA: an enlightenment organisation committed to finding innovative practical solutions to today’s social challenges. Through its ideas, research and 27,000-strong Fellowship it seeks to understand and enhance human capability so we can close the gap between today’s reality and people’s hopes for a better world. EVERYONE STARTS WITH AN ‘A’ Applying behavioural insight to narrow the socioeconomic attainment gap in education NATHALIE SPENCER, JONATHAN ROWSON, LOUISE BAMFIELD MARCH 2014 8 John Adam Street London WC2N 6EZ +44 (0) 20 7930 5115 Registered as a charity in England and Wales IN COOPERATION WITH THE no. 212424 VODAFONE FOUNDATION GERMANY Copyright © RSA 2014 www.thersa.org www.thersa.org For use in conjunction with Everyone Starts with an “A” 3 ways to use behavioural insight in the classroom By Spencer, Rowson, www.theRSA.org Bamfield (2014), available www.vodafone-stiftung.de A guide for teachers and school leaders at: www.thersa.org/startswitha www.lehrerdialog.net n Praising pupils for effort instead of intelligence to help instil the Whether you and your pupils believe that academic idea that effort is key and intelligence is not a fixed trait. For ability is an innate trait (a ‘fixed mindset’) or can be example, try “great, you kept practicing” instead of “great, you’re strengthened through effort and practice like a muscle really clever”. (a ‘growth mindset’) affects learning, resilience to n Becoming the lead learner. Educators can shape mindset setbacks, and performance. Mindset through modelling it for the pupils. The way that you (and parents) give feedback to Think about ability like a muscle Try: n Giving a “not yet” grade instead of a “fail” to set the expectation pupils can reinforce or attenuate a given mindset. -
“Is Cryonics an Ethical Means of Life Extension?” Rebekah Cron University of Exeter 2014
1 “Is Cryonics an Ethical Means of Life Extension?” Rebekah Cron University of Exeter 2014 2 “We all know we must die. But that, say the immortalists, is no longer true… Science has progressed so far that we are morally bound to seek solutions, just as we would be morally bound to prevent a real tsunami if we knew how” - Bryan Appleyard 1 “The moral argument for cryonics is that it's wrong to discontinue care of an unconscious person when they can still be rescued. This is why people who fall unconscious are taken to hospital by ambulance, why they will be maintained for weeks in intensive care if necessary, and why they will still be cared for even if they don't fully awaken after that. It is a moral imperative to care for unconscious people as long as there remains reasonable hope for recovery.” - ALCOR 2 “How many cryonicists does it take to screw in a light bulb? …None – they just sit in the dark and wait for the technology to improve” 3 - Sterling Blake 1 Appleyard 2008. Page 22-23 2 Alcor.org: ‘Frequently Asked Questions’ 2014 3 Blake 1996. Page 72 3 Introduction Biologists have known for some time that certain organisms can survive for sustained time periods in what is essentially a death"like state. The North American Wood Frog, for example, shuts down its entire body system in winter; its heart stops beating and its whole body is frozen, until summer returns; at which point it thaws and ‘comes back to life’ 4. -
The Definition of Effective Altruism
OUP CORRECTED PROOF – FINAL, 19/08/19, SPi 1 The Definition of Effective Altruism William MacAskill There are many problems in the world today. Over 750 million people live on less than $1.90 per day (at purchasing power parity).1 Around 6 million children die each year of easily preventable causes such as malaria, diarrhea, or pneumonia.2 Climate change is set to wreak environmental havoc and cost the economy tril- lions of dollars.3 A third of women worldwide have suffered from sexual or other physical violence in their lives.4 More than 3,000 nuclear warheads are in high-alert ready-to-launch status around the globe.5 Bacteria are becoming antibiotic- resistant.6 Partisanship is increasing, and democracy may be in decline.7 Given that the world has so many problems, and that these problems are so severe, surely we have a responsibility to do something about them. But what? There are countless problems that we could be addressing, and many different ways of addressing each of those problems. Moreover, our resources are scarce, so as individuals and even as a globe we can’t solve all these problems at once. So we must make decisions about how to allocate the resources we have. But on what basis should we make such decisions? The effective altruism movement has pioneered one approach. Those in this movement try to figure out, of all the different uses of our resources, which uses will do the most good, impartially considered. This movement is gathering con- siderable steam. There are now thousands of people around the world who have chosen -
Comments to Michael Jackson's Keynote on Determining Energy
Comments to Michael Jackson’s Keynote on Determining Energy Futures using Artificial Intelligence Prof Sirkka Heinonen Finland Futures Research Centre (FFRC) University of Turku ENERGIZING FUTURES 13–14 June 2018 Tampere, Finland AI and Energy • Concrete tools: How Shaping Tomorrow answers the question How can AI help? • Goal of foresight crystal clear: Making better decisions today Huge Challenge – The Challenge The world will need to cut energy-related carbon dioxide emissions by 60 percent by 2050 -even as the population grows by more than two billion people Bold Solution on the Horizon The Renewable Energy Transition Companies as pioneers on energy themes, demand, supply, consumption • Google will reach 100% RE for its global operations this year • GE using AI to boost different forms of energy production and use tech-driven data reports to anticipate performance and maintenance needs around the world BUT …also the role of governments, cities and citizens …NGOs, media… new actors should be emphasised AI + Energy + Peer-to-Peer Society • The transformation of the energy system aligns with the principles of a Peer-to-Peer Society. • Peer-to-peer practices are based on the active participation and self-organisation of citizens. Citizens share knowledge, skills, co-create, and form new peer groups. • Citizens will use their capabilities also to develop energy-related products and services Rethinking Concepts Buildings as Power stations – global (economic) opportunity to construct buildings that generate, store and release solar energy -
Artificial Intelligence As a Positive and Negative Factor in Global Risk
The Singularity Institute Artificial Intelligence as a Positive and Negative Factor in Global Risk Eliezer Yudkowsky The Singularity Institute Yudkowsky, Eliezer. 2008. Artificial intelligence as a positive and negative factor in global risk. In Global catastrophic risks, ed. Nick Bostrom and Milan M. Cirkovic, 308–345. New York: Oxford University Press. This version contains minor changes. Eliezer Yudkowsky 1. Introduction By far the greatest danger of Artificial Intelligence is that people conclude too early that they understand it. Of course this problem is not limited to the field of AI. Jacques Monod wrote: “A curious aspect of the theory of evolution is that everybody thinks he understands it” (Monod 1975). My father, a physicist, complained about people making up their own theories of physics; he wanted to know why people did not make up their own theories of chemistry. (Answer: They do.) Nonetheless the problem seems tobe unusually acute in Artificial Intelligence. The field of AI has a reputation formaking huge promises and then failing to deliver on them. Most observers conclude that AI is hard; as indeed it is. But the embarrassment does not stem from the difficulty. It is difficult to build a star from hydrogen, but the field of stellar astronomy does not have a terrible reputation for promising to build stars and then failing. The critical inference is not that AI is hard, but that, for some reason, it is very easy for people to think they know far more about Artificial Intelligence than they actually do. In my other chapter for Global Catastrophic Risks, “Cognitive Biases Potentially Affect- ing Judgment of Global Risks” (Yudkowsky 2008), I opened by remarking that few people would deliberately choose to destroy the world; a scenario in which the Earth is destroyed by mistake is therefore very worrisome. -
Lesswrong.Com Sequences
LessWrong.com Sequences Elizier Yudkowsky Generated by lesswrong_book.py on 2013-04-28. Pseudo-random version string: 8c37c10f-8178-4d00-8a06-16a9ed81a6be. Part I Map and Territory A collection of posts dealing with the fundamentals of rationality: the difference between the map and the territory, Bayes’s Theorem and the nature of evidence, why anyone should care about truth, and minds as reflective cognitive engines. 1. The Simple Truth↗ “I remember this paper I wrote on existentialism. My teacher gave it back with an F. She’d underlined true and truth wherever it appeared in the essay, probably about twenty times, with a question mark beside each. She wanted to know what I meant by truth.” — Danielle Egan (journalist) Author’s Foreword: This essay is meant to restore a naive view of truth. Someone says to you: “My miracle snake oil can rid you of lung cancer in just three weeks.” You reply: “Didn’t a clinical study show this claim to be untrue?” The one returns: “This notion of ‘truth’ is quite naive; what do you mean by ‘true’?” Many people, so questioned, don’t know how to answer in exquisitely rigorous detail. Nonetheless they would not be wise to abandon the concept of ‘truth’. There was a time when no one knew the equations of gravity in exquisitely rigorous detail, yet if you walked off a cliff, you would fall. Often I have seen – especially on Internet mailing lists – that amidst other conversation, someone says “X is true”, and then an argument breaks out over the use of the word ‘true’. -
Less Wrong Sequences Pdf
Less wrong sequences pdf Continue % Print Ready Lesswrong Sequences Print Friendly Versions of Lesswrong Sequence, Enjoy! The basic sequences of Mysterious Answers to Mysterious Questions How to See through many disguises of answers or beliefs or statements that do not respond or say or mean nothing. The first (and probably most important) main sequence on Less Wrong. the epub pdf-version of the reductionism discount the second core sequence is less wrong. How to make the reality apart... and live in this universe where we have always lived without feeling frustrated that complex things are made of simpler things. Includes zombies and Joy in just real subsequences epub (en) pdf-version marking quantum physics is not a mysterious introduction to quantum mechanics, designed to be available to those who can grok algebra and complex numbers. Cleaning up the old confusion about SM is used to introduce basic issues into rationality (such as the technical version of Occam's Razor), epistemology, dredonism, naturalism, and philosophy of science. Do not dispense reading, although the exact reasons for the retreat are difficult to explain before reading. epub pdf-version of the markup Fun Theory is a specific theory of transhuman values. How much pleasure there is in the universe; We will someday run out of fun; We have fun yet; we could have more fun. Part of the complexity of the value thesis. It is also part of a fully general response to religious theododicy. epub pdf-version marking Minor sequences smaller collection of messages. Usually parts of the main sequences that depend on some, but not all points are entered.