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BELGRADE RESIDENTIAL Marketview BELGRADE RESIDENTIAL MarketView www.cbre.rs H2 2012 DEMAND IN BELGRADE RESIDENTIAL MARKET PICKING UP INDICATING INCREASE STABILITY OF THE MARKET RESIDENTIAL SUPPLY The year 2011 saw positive movements in the construction activity and Hot topics brought the growth in the number of completed apartments, as compared • A number of constructed to 2010, by 12.9%. Consequently, some Belgrade municipalities recorded residential units in Belgrade very intense development, such as: Cukarica and Vozdovac, where number grew by 12.9% in 2011 as of constructed units grew by 30-40%, while the top results were recorded in compared to 2010 Zvezdara municipality, where the amount of completed units in 2011 • As of October 2012, the doubled as compared to 2010. The biggest drop in development activity Serbian Government provided has been noted in municipalities: Stari Grad, Vracar and Savski venac, due an additional 500 million dinars to limited available plots and building density. for subsidized housing loans. • Sales prices and rental levels CHART 1: Number of constructed apartments in Serbia/Belgrade remained mostly unchanged, during 2012 19,815 18,162 19,049 19,103 18,648 18,449 16,388 16,417 13,871 10,372 10,496 10,713 Serbia essentials 7,292 7,379 7,601 7,860 6,150 5,684 6,416 Population 4,977 7,186,862 2,989 3,325 (Census 2011) 1,577 2,132 Average salary (EUR) 375 November 2012 Average Household 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 438 Expenditure (EUR ) Q3 2012 Belgrade Serbia Unemployment rate (Labor 22.40% Force Survey -October 2012) GDP -2.5% CHART 2: Number of constructed apartments in Belgrade per Q3 2012 (y-o-y) municipalities CPI 12.2% December 2012 (y-o-y) Vozdovac Vracar 17% 16% Belgrade essentials Zvezdara Zemun 4% Population 1,659,440 New Belgrade (Census 2011) 7% Average salary (EUR) Palilula 0% 456 Rakovica November 2012 1% Average Household Savski Venac 535 3% 8% Expenditure (EUR ) Q3 2012 Stari Grad 34% Unemployment rate (Labor Cukarica 6% 20.10% 4% Force Survey -October 2012) Other Source: Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia Source: Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia At the moment, there are several ongoing projects in Belgrade, i.e. a local 1 company Neimar V is developing the projects in Bezanijska kosa settlement and New Belgrade’s block 61, both totaling 260 apartments. Also, Napred is entering the final stage of completion of its project in New Belgrade block 34, of107 apartments. The construction of one of the largest residential projects in Belgrade West65, comprising 514 residential units in total, continues as planned, whereas the first stage, totaling 152 units is expected to be finished by the end of March 2013. BELGRADE RESIDENTIAL MarketView H2 2012 Moreover, a renowned British investor Pluto Capital The Building Directorate of Serbia continues the strong continues the construction of its residential project, located construction activities on their two housing projects in at the corner of Maksima Gorkog Street and Juzni Belgrade: Stepa Stepanovic residential complex of Boulevard. The completion of complex Harmony 4,616 apartments in Vozdovac municipality, planned for Apartments, of 80 residential units, is set for 2013- completion by Mid 2013, where 1,000 units are already yearend. The same neighborhood hosts another project, occupied and Dr Ivan Ribara settlement, in New currently under construction, totaling 159 residential units Belgrade, where 707 residential units are being called Marmil land. Apart from large-scale projects, developed, as of spring 2012. As per latest data, app. several small-scale projects in Vracar municipality are also 2,650 and 190 apartments are sold respectively. in development phase, which will additionally enlarge Price per sq m ranges from EUR 1,250 to EUR 1,290 Belgrade residential supply in the forthcoming period. (VAT incl.) per sq m. The other parts of Belgrade are also facing strong construction activity. The first 2 lamellas with 50 apartments in Peteg’s residential project Golf8 in Banovo CHART 3: Number of issued loans brdo are completed, while the whole complex with 153 12,000 units is scheduled for completion for 2013. Alpha city in 10,000 Zvezdara of 299 units should be completed in spring 2013. 8,000 6,000 In addition, Palilula municipality is witnessing the 4,000 development of large-scale project Dunavske terase, of 2,000 57,000 sq m of GBA, which includes 270 residential units, 0 162 business apartments, 54 office suits and 93 retail 2010 2011 Jan-Nov2012 shops. Recently, CPI group has commenced the development of a residential complex of 107 units in Commercial loans Subsidised loans Paunova street, in Banjica settlement. The deadline for Source: National Mortgage Corporation (NMIC completion is set for April 2014. CHART 4: Comparison of average living space per As far as future supply is concerned, Italian investor Edil person in European cities (sq m) Italiana plans to begin the construction of its project in Ruzveltova street, of app. 50 residential units, in 2013. 50 3 New Belgrade area should see the development of Gradina Zemun’s residential project of 108 units, in block 40 2.4 9. 30 1.8 In addition, Greek developer Lamda has also announced sizeHousehold 20 1.2 unique mixed-use project comprising hotel, residential Living space (sq m) (sq spaceLiving and commercial segments, totaling 94,000 sq m, located 10 0.6 at the premium downtown location next to Kalemegdan park. 0 0 Sofia Berlin Athens Madrid Paris Rome Vienna Bratislava Belgrade Average living space per person Household size Source: Eurostat, Population and living conditions in Urban Audit cities, core city DEMAND Latest available data; for Belgrade Census 2002 After weak results noted during the winter 2012, the second quarter of 2012 brought the positive trend when it comes to the overall interest of buyers, which further CHART 5: Number of sold apartments continued in Q3. 1,200 In accordance with the data published by National 1,000 Mortgage Insurance Corporation, based on insured loan buyers data, the number of sold apartments grew by 31% 800 in H2 2012, in comparison with H1 2012, yet this figure 600 dropped by 16% in 2012, as compared to the number achieved in 2011. 400 200 Still, having in mind the local market practice, the larger 0 share of buyers are cash buyers and loan independent, Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 particularly in mid-to high-end projects. Thus, the demand 2010 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012 for high-class projects has remained stable for some time, as high-income population was not greatly affected by Vozdovac Vracar Zvezdara New Belgrade Palilula Savski venac Stari grad Other economic situation and is independent of loans. Source: National Mortgage Corporation (NMIC), loan insured data BELGRADE RESIDENTIAL MarketView H2 2012 SALES PRICES CHART 6: Average asking prices of mid-end and The sales prices of residential units remained mostly high-end projects in Belgrade stable, due to the more balanced demand-supply ratio. 3,400 In central Belgrade municipalities, the asking prices of 3,200 high-quality projects start off from EUR 2,200 (VAT 3,000 included), with most mid-end projects varying between 2,800 2,600 EUR 1,700-2,200 with VAT included. 2,400 2,200 2,000 The prices are influenced by location and by the quality of (inlc.VAT) m EUR/sq 1,800 finishing works. For several years now, the highest sales 1,600 prices are recorded in Dedinje, followed by central parts 1,400 of Belgrade (Vracar and Stari Grad. New Belgrade has Vracar City center New Belgrade Vozdovac Dedinje kept up with the trend of being one of the most desired mid-end high-end locations for living, marking the same price ranges as Source: CBS International, part of the CBRE Affiliate Network central downtown projects. Table 2: Asking rental levels in Belgrade (EUR/sq m/month) RENTAL LEVELS Renovated Newly Built Location Having in mind the rental requests, the market marks a Properties Properties steady demand, a trend that keeps on during the entire Dedinje 8-10 10-14 2012. In general, typical rental levels range between EUR Vracar 8-10 10-13 8-10/sq m for renovated properties and from EUR 10- 15/sq m for newly built properties, depending on the New Belgrade 6-8 9-12 location and quality of properties, as presented in Table Downtown 7-10 8-15 2. Source: CBS International, part of the CBRE Affiliate Network BELGRADE MAP CONTACTS Dragan Radulovic Managing Director CBS International doo Beograd Part of the CBRE Affiliate Network Airport City Belgrade 88b Omladinskih Brigada Street 11070 Belgrade, Serbia t: +381 11 22 58 777 e: [email protected] Mina Kalezic Sales & Marketing Manager CBS International doo Beograd Part of the CBRE Affiliate Network Airport City Belgrade 88b Omladinskih Brigada Street 11070 Belgrade, Serbia t: +381 11 22 58 777 e: [email protected] Tamara Kostadinovic Head of Market Research CBS International doo Beograd Part of the CBRE Affiliate Network Airport City Belgrade 88b Omladinskih Brigada Street 11070 Belgrade, Serbia Source: CBS International, part of the CBRE Affiliate Network, locally prepared t: +381 11 22 58 777 3 e: [email protected] Disclaimer CBS International doo (part of the CBRE Affiliate Network) confirms that information contained + VISIT US herein, including projections, has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. While we do not doubt their accuracy, we have not verified them and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about them. It is your responsibility to confirm independently their accuracy and www.cbre.rs completeness.
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