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Real Estate Review 1377 El Camino Real PRSRT STD Menlo Park, CA 94025 U.S. Postage PAID San Francisco, CA Permit No. 2001 Information deemed reliable, but not guaranteed. If your property is currently listed for sale, this is not intended as a solicitation of that listing. ©Marketing Designs, Inc. 650.802.0888 marketingdesigns.net 2017 Real Estate Review ATHERTON WOODSIDE MENLO PARK PORTOLA VALLEY www.HughCornish.com 650.566.5353 DIRECT 650.619.6461 CELL [email protected] Top 1% Internationally – Coldwell Banker Presented by Ranked #125 Nationally by The Wall Street Journal, 2017 Over $2 Billion in Sales Dear Neighbor: I am proud to present the 19th edition of my Real Estate Review, which includes a summary of the sales statistics for Atherton, Menlo Park, Portola Valley, and Woodside, as well as an overview of each community. It is my hope that this report is a useful tool for local property owners and potential buyers enabling a better understanding of market trends and residential property values. Many significant events in 2017 will likely have an effect on our national economy and local housing market. A new Republican administration, substantial changes to our tax code, and the Dow Jones setting new record highs are just a few highlights. 2017 THE LOCAL REAL ESTATE MARKET While 2016 marked the first year of local home prices starting to level off, 2017 R e a l experienced the first decreases in over 5 years. Using average prices of residential properties for sale on the Multiple Listing Service (MLS), Menlo Park increased 8% and Estate Portola Valley increased 14%, while Atherton and Woodside decreased by 30% and 25%, respectively. Median prices followed suit with increases of 15% in Menlo Park and 11% in Review Portola Valley, and decreases of 21% in Atherton and 16% in Woodside. The decreases in average and median sales prices in Atherton and Woodside were dramatic, but these statistics were based solely on sales of SUMMARY – MLS SALES ONLY properties on the MLS. Due to this significant CITY # SALES AVERAGE $ MEDIAN $ drop in Atherton and Woodside, for the first Atherton +17% -30% -21% time in 19 years, I have also compiled data for all available “off-MLS” sales for all four Menlo Park +2% +8% +15% communities. I have created a second chart, Portola Valley +19% +14% +11% which shows how the large number of off-MLS Woodside -6% -25% -16% sales affects the total average and median The data does not include any properties sold off the Multiple Listing Service. sales prices for 2017. SUMMARY – MLS + OFF-MARKET SALES Atherton, Menlo Park, and Portola Valley CITY # SALES AVERAGE $ MEDIAN $ experienced an increase in the number of both MLS and off-MLS sales in 2017. Only Atherton +23% -17% -16% Top 1% Internationally Woodside saw a decline, a result of decreased Menlo Park +8% +13% +15% Coldwell Banker inventory of available homes for sale. The Portola Valley +22% +4% +7% Ranked #125 Nationally by average increase in the number of MLS sales Woodside -6% -30% -21% The Wall Street Journal, 2017 in the combined four communities was 8% in The data includes properties sold on the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) as well as “off-MLS” sales per San Mateo County records. Over $2 Billion in Sales 2017, compared to a decline of 7% in 2016. The average increase in all sales in the combined 4 communities was 12% in 2017. WWW.HUGHCORNISH.COM THE ECONOMY 2017 was an epic year for the stock market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished the year 25% higher than 2016, its best performance since 2013. The S&P 500 and 650.566.5353 DIRECT Nasdaq also had a very good year ending up 19% and 28% higher, respectively. The 650.619.6461 CELL most likely catalyst for this incredible performance is the new tax law that went into effect on January 1st. Incentives to bring foreign profits back to the U.S. could be used to create [email protected] new jobs and purchase equipment and factories, but Wall Street predicts most will go to CalRE#00912143 paying down debt and buying back shares, which will push stock prices even higher. The soaring market has consumer confidence at 17-year highs and experts estimate continued growth up to .6 percentage points in 2018 (CNN Money, December 2017). Long-term interest rates remained stable in 2017, while the Federal Reserve raised short-term interest rates three times over the course of the year. The 30-year fixed jumbo (above $636,100) rates started the year around 4 percent and ended the year around 4.25 percent. Adjustable conforming (below $636,100) interest rates ranged between 3.37 percent and 3.5 percent. The Bay Area economy continued to be strong, buoyed by the high-tech, internet, venture capital, biotech, and social media sectors. While IPO activity is up from 2016, it remains low as compared to the last decade. As of November 30th 1377 El Camino Real , there had been 74 IPOs in 2017 with companies raising a collective $17.4 billion, which was about in line Menlo Park, CA 94025 with 2016, according to PitchBook. Some of the bigger companies that went public this year are not doing well on Wall Street, such as Snap Inc., better known as Snapchat, and Blue Apron. A few others, like Roku, are experiencing early success. There is a “private for longer” phenomenon affecting many VC-backed companies who are choosing to continue independent fundraising over an exit, according to had to be discounted from their original asking prices GeekWire. This is resulting in a backlog of venture- in order to meet expectations of a changing real estate backed exits for 2018, according to the Silicon Valley market. On the lower end, many homes still sold with Business Journal. multiple offers, short escrows, and all-cash transactions. California’s unemployment rate was 4% in November, 3. Off-Market Sales: Properties for sale not listed down from 5.3% a year ago, according to the Employment on the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) increased in all Development Department (EDD). Also as of November, cities in 2017, except for Menlo Park. If sellers want to the unemployment rate was 2.1% in the North Valley ensure their homes are exposed to the widest audience Consortium, which includes Cupertino, Los Altos, Milpitas, possible, the only way to effectively increase their Mountain View, Palo Alto, Santa Clara, Sunnyvale, and San exposure is to request that their real estate agents place Mateo County. the property on the MLS. MARKET TRENDS % of Homes Sold Off-Market The most dominant trends in the local real estate City 2016 2017 market in 2017 were: Atherton 7% 23% 1. Fluctuating Property Values: A decrease in home Menlo Park 32% 23% values was experienced for the first time in Atherton since Portola Valley 8% 19% 2009 and Woodside since 2012. Atherton experienced Woodside 3% 17% the largest drop with the average price decreasing 30% on the Multiple Listing Service, as compared to a 12% There are two reasons I recommend placing a gain in 2016. Menlo Park and Portola Valley, on the other property on the MLS versus marketing off the MLS: hand, both saw increases of 9% and 14%, respectively. • Many qualified buyers exist throughout the Bay Area This is maybe an indication that the high-end markets in who are being represented by real estate agents Atherton and Woodside are softening. that may not be networked into our local market and Since Atherton property values have steadily consequently not be aware of an off-MLS listing. increased over the past eight years, some buyers have • Once a property is entered into the MLS with most felt the market was overvalued. I feel the continued real estate brokers, it automatically gets placed on increase in property values prior to 2017 has finally led multiple websites. This allows a prospective buyer to to a bit of a market correction. The decrease in average search real estate sites such as Zillow, Realtor.com, and median sales prices could also be a reflection and many other popular websites that buyers use to of the overweighting of lower-priced properties sold find their next home. in Atherton compared to previous years. I believe 4. Increase in Foreign Buyers: The National Association Woodside also experienced a correction due to prices of Realtors’ 2017 Profile of International Activity in increasing steadily since 2012. U.S. Residential Real Estate, covering real estate sales Menlo Park prices have continued to increase because to international clients between April 2016 and March there tends to be a wider audience of buyers due to the 2017, found that foreign buyers purchased $153 billion price point and its proximity to shopping, restaurants, of residential property, up from the $102.6 billion of entertainment, and public transportation. I feel Portola property purchased in the previous twelve months. The Valley has been historically undervalued. The Town dollar volume of foreign buyer purchases accounted Center, abundant open space, excellent schools, and the for 10% of the dollar volume of existing-home sales, weekly Farmer’s Market have attracted many new buyers a 2% increase from the previous year. Overall, a total and contributed to the increase in property values. of 284,455 U.S. residential properties were bought by Given the fluctuations in property values, it may foreign buyers (up 4%), and properties were typically surprise you to learn that the Town of Atherton returned valued higher than the median price of all U.S. existing- to its #1 ranking as the most expensive ZIP code in the home sales.
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