AFGHANISTAN Scoping Strategic Options for Development of the Public Disclosure Authorized Kabul River Basin A MULTISECTORAL DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM APPROACH Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Sustainable Development Department South Asia Region THE WORLD BANK AFGHANISTAN Scoping Strategic Options for Development of the Kabul River Basin A MULtisECtoraL DECision SUPPort SYstEM APProaCH Sustainable Development Department South Asia Region THE WORLD BANK @2010 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/ The World Bank 1818 H Street, NW, Washington, D.C. 20433 USA The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent. 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Ltd. www.macrographics.com TABLE OF CONTENTS Abbreviations and Acronyms vii Acknowledgments viii Executive Summary ix 1 Introduction 1 Background 1 Objectives of This Study 2 Approach and Process 2 Sources of Information 3 2 The Kabul River Basin 5 The Principal Subbasins 7 The Logar-Upper Kabul Subbasin 7 The Panjshir Subbasin 7 The Lower Kabul Subbasin 8 Climate and Hydrology 8 Demographics and Land Use 10 3 Strategic Development Issues in the Basin 13 Development Needs in the Kabul River Basin 13 Resource-Based Economic Growth 14 Overall Balance of Bulk Water Supply and Demand 15 Storage Development for Multiple Purposes 15 Displacement of People and Resettlement 17 Streamflow and Rainfall Variability 18 Interannual Streamflow Variability 18 Potential Climate Change Impacts 19 Table of Contents iii Urban Domestic and Industrial Water Supply 20 Forecasts of Demand for Kabul Water Supply 20 Kabul’s Strategic Problem 21 Environment 21 Basin Planning and Management Objectives 22 Envisioning the Future of the Kabul River Basin 22 Translating the Basin Development Vision into Objectives and Criteria 22 4 Kabul River Basin Investment Options 25 Introduction 25 Storage Investment Options 25 Hydroelectric Power Development Options 27 Irrigated Agriculture Development Options 28 Urban and Industrial Water Supply Options 29 Kabul Water Supply Options 30 5 Analytical Approach 33 Introduction 33 Knowledge Base 34 System Definition 34 Supply 34 Demand 35 Costs 36 Modeling Framework 36 Scenarios and Related Assumptions 37 Outputs and Results 38 6 Alternative Development Scenarios 45 Restatement of Objectives and Development Context 45 Base Case Scenario 47 Alternative Scenarios 48 Kabul Bulk Water Supply Scenarios 48 Energy Production Scenarios 50 Irrigation Development Scenarios 52 Environmental Flow Requirement Scenarios 54 An Example of Project Interactions 54 7 Strategic Findings and Way Forward 57 Strategic Findings 57 Priority Improvements to the Kabul River Basin Knowledge Base and DSS 60 Strategy for Accelerating Water Resources Development in Afghanistan 61 Progress on Next Steps 63 iv Scoping Strategic Options for Development of the Kabul River Basin References 65 Appendix A. Summary of Donor Engagement in the Water Sector in Afghanistan 67 Appendix B. Outline of DSS Analytical Framework 69 Appendix C. Detailed DSS Model Structure 77 Appendix D. Example Application of Consequence Table 81 Appendix E. Discussion of Alternative Scenarios 83 List of Boxes Box ES.1 Key Findings for Water Resources Development in the Kabul River Basin xiii Box 3.1 Envisioning the Future of the Kabul River Basin: The Ideal Kabul River Basin in 20 Years 23 Box 7.1 Key Findings for Water Resources Development in the Kabul River basin 60 List of Figures 2.1 Location of Kabul River Basin 5 2.2 Kabul River Basin Subbasins 6 2.3 Schematic Diagram of the Kabul River Subbasins 7 2.4 Proposed Baghdara Dam Site on the Panjshir River 8 2.5 Average Monthly Precipitation and Potential Evapotranspiration at Kabul 8 2.6 Average Monthly Precipitation and Potential Evapotranspiration at Jabul-Seraj 9 2.7 Average Monthly Precipitation and Potential Evapotranspiration at Jalalabad 9 2.8 Panjshir and Logar-Upper Kabul Subbasins: Comparison of Average Monthly Streamflow 9 2.9 Kabul River Subbasins Average Monthly Streamflow 10 2.10 Konar and Kabul Rivers Average Monthly Streamflow 10 3.1 Average Monthly Flow in the Kabul River Basin (Without Konar River) vs. Energy Demand and 16 Irrigation Bulk Water Demand 3.2 Frequency and Magnitude of Low Flow Periods at Gulbahar on Panjshir River 19 3.3 Required Kabul Water Production and Existing Supply (based on Short Term Program) 21 3.4 Incremental Bulk Water Production Required to meet Kabul Requirements 21 4.1 Kabul River Basin Storage Options 26 4.2 High and Low Forecasts of Monthly Energy Demand (2020 Without Export or Import) 27 4.3 Existing and Potential Areas of Irrigation Development 29 4.4 Crop Net Value Added Relative to Wheat 30 4.5 Schematic Diagram of the Logar-Upper Kabul Subbasin in the Kabul DSS_v2.1 31 5.1 Schematic Diagram of the Kabul River Basin with river Network, Conveyance Options and Development Options 40 5.2 Kabul River Basin DSS Interface 41 5.3 Kabul River Basin DSS Economics Interface 42 5.4 Kabul River Basin DSS Irrigation Sector Results 43 5.5 Kabul River Basin DSS Power Sector Results 44 Table of Contents v 6.1 Base Case Energy Generation 50 6.2 Base Case Energy Generation (No Konar A; No exports or imports) 51 6.3 Feasible Environmental Flow Requirements for the Kabul River through Kabul City 54 6.4 Development Options on the Panjshir River 55 List of Tables 2.1 Comparison of Kabul River Subbasins 10 2.2 Average Monthly Rainfall at Selected Sites in the Kabul River Basin 10 2.3 Average Monthly Evapotranspiration at Selected Sites in the Kabul River Basin 11 2.4 Provinces Constituting the Kabul River Basin: Total Population by Province, Including Refugees 11 2.5 Urban and Rural Population in the Kabul River Basin 12 2.6 Existing and Potential Irrigated Agriculture in the Kabul River Basin 12 2.7 Principal Crops Grown in the Kabul River Basin 12 3.1 Kabul River Basin Water Supply and Demand Balance 15 3.2 Low Flows as a Percentage of the Mean Annual Flow 18 3.3 Kabul Population Forecasts 20 3.4 Forecast of Required Water Production for Kabul 20 3.5 Consequence Table - Criteria and Measures to Assess Scenarios and Options 23 4.1 Characteristics of Potential New Storage Sites in the Kabul River Basin 26 4.2 High and Low Forecasts of Monthly Energy Demand in 2020 (Without export from or Import to the Basin) 27 4.3 Distribution of Monthly Energy Demand 27 4.4 Potential Irrigated Areas in the Kabul River Basin 28 4.5 Agriculture in the Irrigable Areas of the Panjshir Watershed 28 4.6 Cost of Production and Conveyance from the Existing Kabul Aquifers 30 6.1 Base Case Scenario 47 6.2 Kabul Bulk Water Supply: Strategic Options with a Conveyance Link to the Panjshir Subbasin 49 6.3 Alternative Basin Energy Production Systems 52 6.4 Influence of Strategic Scenario and Irrigation Efficiency on Irrigation Development 53 vi Scoping Strategic Options for Development of the Kabul River Basin Abbreviations and Acronyms ADB Asian Development Bank AWARD Afghanistan Water Resources Development CIDA Canadian International Development Agency DSS Decision Support System FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations GIS Geographic Information System GTZ German Agency for Technical Cooperation JICA Japan International Cooperation Agency MDG Millennium Development Goal USAID U.S. Agency for International Development Units 1 km3 = 1,000 Mm3 1 Gl = 1,000 Ml = 1 Mm3 1 m3/s = 31.54 Mm3 1 l/s/day = 86.4 m3/day = 8.6 mm/ha/day Currency Equivalent US$1.00 = Afg 49.9 Abbreviations and Acronyms vii Acknowledgments his study is a part of the World Bank’s water sector German Agency for Technical Cooperation (GTZ), the Japan program in Afghanistan, and has been conducted as International Cooperation Agency (JICA), KfW, the United Ta collaborative effort between the Bank’s South Asia Nations, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, and the U.S. Sustainable Development Department and Afghanistan’s Agency for International Development (USAID). The study Ministry of Energy and Water. The strong and consistent would have been impossible without the participation of support provided by the Minister of Energy and Water and knowledge contributions made by these government H.E. Al Haj Mohammad Ismael, the Deputy Minister of agencies and development organizations. Water Shojauddin Ziaie, and senior officials of the Ministry is gratefully acknowledged. Special thanks are due to the The World Bank team was led by Sanjay Pahuja, with Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations N. Harshadeep Rao and Walter Garvey as core team members.