Crop Prospects and Food Situation #2, July 2021
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#2 JULY 2021 ISSN 2707-2223 CROP PROSPECTS and Quarterly Global Report FOOD SITUATION COUNTRIES REQUIRING EXTERNAL ASSISTANCE FOR FOOD FAO assesses that globally 45 countries, including 34 in Africa, 9 in Asia and 2 in Latin America and the Caribbean, are in need of external assistance for food. Conflicts and climate-related shocks Countries in need of continue to underpin the high levels external assistance of severe food insecurity. The effects for food of the COVID-19 pandemic, primarily in terms of income losses, have exacerbated vulnerabilities and heightened existing levels of 45 food insecurity. REGIONAL HIGHLIGHTS Asia 0.9 AFRICA Following poor main harvests in southern parts of East Africa, production Africa 2.0 prospects are more positive in northern Central America and the Caribbean -0.9 countries, on account of favourable weather. Outlooks are mixed in West South America -2.0 African and Central African countries, North America 4.5 World cereal production where less-than-favourable rainfall Europe 3.9 forecasts and persisting conflicts are 2021 over 2020 impairing production prospects. The (yearly percentage change) Oceania -9.3 bulk of the main season harvests were - World 1.7 completed in North Africa and Southern Africa, and outputs are estimated at above-average levels. + 1.7% ASIA Widespread and prolonged rainfall deficits in Near East countries (million tonnes) are expected to result in below-average 200 cereal outputs. In Far East countries, 198 the production outlook for the 2021 ASIA cereal crops is favourable, owing Cereal production 196 to large plantings and conducive weather conditions. In CIS Asia, scarce 194 precipitation amounts have cut back forecast 2017 (%) 194 192 production expectations and near-average cereal harvests are forecast in 2021. LIFDC cereal production 190 LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN 189 190 2021 over 2020 188 In South America, cereal harvests are forecast at high levels in 2021, but -3.3 186 continued dryness in Brazil has sharply 184 reduced prospects compared to initial expectations. Cereal outputs in Central - 2.1% 182 America in 2021 are forecast slightly below average, as dryness curbs 180 2019 2020 2021 forecast yield prospects. GIEWS - Global Information and Early Warning System on Food and Agriculture Required citation: FAO. 2021. Crop Prospects and Food Situation - Quarterly Global Report No. 2, July 2021. 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GIEWS CROP PROSPECTS AND FOOD SITUATION #2 JULY 2021 CONTENTS COUNTRIES REQUIRING EXTERNAL ASSISTANCE FOR FOOD 2 GLOBAL CEREAL OVERVIEW 7 LOW-INCOME FOOD-DEFICIT COUNTRIES’ FOOD SITUATION OVERVIEW 10 REGIONAL REVIEWS AFRICA - Overview 12 NORTH AFRICA 13 WEST AFRICA 14 CENTRAL AFRICA 16 EAST AFRICA 17 SOUTHERN AFRICA 20 ASIA - Overview 22 FAR EAST 23 NEAR EAST 26 CIS IN ASIA 27 LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN - Overview 29 CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN 30 SOUTH AMERICA 32 NORTH AMERICA, EUROPE AND OCEANIA - Overview 35 NORTH AMERICA 36 EUROPE 36 OCEANIA 38 STATISTICAL APPENDIX Table A1. Global cereal supply and demand indicators 39 Table A2. World cereal stocks 40 Table A3. Selected international prices of wheat and coarse grains 41 Table A4a. Estimated cereal import requirements of Low-Income Food-Deficit Countries in 2020/2021 or 2021 42 Table A4b. Estimated cereal import requirements of Low-Income Food-Deficit Countries in 2020/2021 or 2021 43 GIEWS CROP PROSPECTS AND FOOD SITUATION #2 JULY 2021 COUNTRIES REQUIRING EXTERNAL ASSISTANCE FOR FOOD AFRICA (34 countries) - Burkina Faso - Burundi - Cabo Verde - Cameroon - Central African Republic - Chad - Congo - Democratic Republic of Congo - Djibouti - Eritrea - Eswatini - Ethiopia ** See Terminology (page 6) - Guinea Source: GIEWS, 2021. Crop Prospects and Food Situation #2 [online]. [Cited 8 July 2021], modified to comply with the United Nations map No. 4170 Rev. 19, 2020. - Kenya - Lesotho In addition to the factors listed below, the following countries have been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic - Liberia and as a result, the impact of the pandemic is considered as a key factor that has worsened food insecurity and - Libya increased the need for humanitarian assistance in all countries, although it may not be mentioned specifically. - Madagascar - Malawi eastern pastoral, agro-pastoral and marginal - Mali AFRICA (34 COUNTRIES) - Mauritania agriculture areas. - Mozambique EXCEPTIONAL SHORTFALL IN - Namibia AGGREGATE FOOD PRODUCTION/ Somalia - Niger SUPPLIES Poor seasonal rains, civil insecurity, desert locusts - Nigeria • About 2.8 million people are estimated - Senegal Central African Republic to be severely food insecure (IPC Phase 3: - Sierra Leone Conflict, population displacements “Crisis” and IPC Phase 4: “Emergency”) in - Somalia • According to the latest Integrated Food the April−September 2021 period, mainly - South Sudan Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis, as a result of the cumulative impact of poor - Sudan the number of severely food insecure people October−December 2020 “Deyr” rains and - Uganda (IPC Phase 3: "Crisis" and above) is estimated April−June “Gu” rains, which severely affected - United Republic of Tanzania at 2.3 million in the April−August 2021 lean crop and livestock production. - Zambia season, due to armed violence that followed the - Zimbabwe December 2020 elections, adding to the already ASIA (9 countries) high levels of civil insecurity. WIDESPREAD LACK OF ACCESS - Afghanistan • About 1.4 million people are either - Bangladesh internally displaced or refugees in Burundi - Democratic People’s Republic neighbouring countries. Weather extremes of Korea • About 1 million people are - Iraq Kenya estimated to be severely food insecure in the - Lebanon Poor seasonal rains, desert locusts June−September 2021 period, mainly due - Myanmar • About 2 million people were estimated to be to livelihood losses caused by poor rains in - Pakistan severely food insecure in the March−May 2021 northern areas and by floods in western areas - Syrian Arab Republic period, reflecting the poor performance of both bordering Lake Tanganyika. The socio-economic - Yemen the October−December 2020 “short-rains” and impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN (2 countries) the March−May 2021 “long-rains” that affected put further constraints on livelihoods of - Haiti crop and livestock production in