Crop Prospects and Food Situation #2, July 2021

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Crop Prospects and Food Situation #2, July 2021 #2 JULY 2021 ISSN 2707-2223 CROP PROSPECTS and Quarterly Global Report FOOD SITUATION COUNTRIES REQUIRING EXTERNAL ASSISTANCE FOR FOOD FAO assesses that globally 45 countries, including 34 in Africa, 9 in Asia and 2 in Latin America and the Caribbean, are in need of external assistance for food. Conflicts and climate-related shocks Countries in need of continue to underpin the high levels external assistance of severe food insecurity. The effects for food of the COVID-19 pandemic, primarily in terms of income losses, have exacerbated vulnerabilities and heightened existing levels of 45 food insecurity. REGIONAL HIGHLIGHTS Asia 0.9 AFRICA Following poor main harvests in southern parts of East Africa, production Africa 2.0 prospects are more positive in northern Central America and the Caribbean -0.9 countries, on account of favourable weather. Outlooks are mixed in West South America -2.0 African and Central African countries, North America 4.5 World cereal production where less-than-favourable rainfall Europe 3.9 forecasts and persisting conflicts are 2021 over 2020 impairing production prospects. The (yearly percentage change) Oceania -9.3 bulk of the main season harvests were - World 1.7 completed in North Africa and Southern Africa, and outputs are estimated at above-average levels. + 1.7% ASIA Widespread and prolonged rainfall deficits in Near East countries (million tonnes) are expected to result in below-average 200 cereal outputs. In Far East countries, 198 the production outlook for the 2021 ASIA cereal crops is favourable, owing Cereal production 196 to large plantings and conducive weather conditions. In CIS Asia, scarce 194 precipitation amounts have cut back forecast 2017 (%) 194 192 production expectations and near-average cereal harvests are forecast in 2021. LIFDC cereal production 190 LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN 189 190 2021 over 2020 188 In South America, cereal harvests are forecast at high levels in 2021, but -3.3 186 continued dryness in Brazil has sharply 184 reduced prospects compared to initial expectations. Cereal outputs in Central - 2.1% 182 America in 2021 are forecast slightly below average, as dryness curbs 180 2019 2020 2021 forecast yield prospects. GIEWS - Global Information and Early Warning System on Food and Agriculture Required citation: FAO. 2021. Crop Prospects and Food Situation - Quarterly Global Report No. 2, July 2021. Rome. https://doi.org/10.4060/cb5603en The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) concerning the legal or development status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. Dashed lines on maps represent approximate border lines for which there may not yet be full agreement. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers, whether or not these have been patented, does not imply that these have been endorsed or recommended by FAO in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. The views expressed in this information product are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of FAO. ISSN 2707-2223 [Print] ISSN 2707-2231 [Online] ISBN 978-92-5-134704-1 © FAO, 2021 Some rights reserved. This work is made available under the Creative Commons Attribution-Non-Commercial- ShareAlike 3.0 IGO licence (CC BY-NC-SA 3.0 IGO; https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/igo/legalcode). Under the terms of this licence, this work may be copied, redistributed and adapted for non-commercial purposes, provided that the work is appropriately cited. In any use of this work, there should be no suggestion that FAO endorses any specific organization, products or services. The use of the FAO logo is not permitted. If the work is adapted, then it must be licensed under the same or equivalent Creative Commons licence. If a translation of this work is created, it must include the following disclaimer along with the required citation: “This translation was not created by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). FAO is not responsible for the content or accuracy of this translation. The original [Language] edition shall be the authoritative edition." Disputes arising under the licence that cannot be settled amicably will be resolved by mediation and arbitration as described in Article 8 of the licence except as otherwise provided herein. The applicable mediation rules will be the mediation rules of the World Intellectual Property Organization http://www.wipo.int/amc/en/mediation/rules and any arbitration will be conducted in accordance with the Arbitration Rules of the United Nations Commission on International Trade Law (UNCITRAL). Third-party materials. Users wishing to reuse material from this work that is attributed to a third party, such as tables, figures or images, are responsible for determining whether permission is needed for that reuse and for obtaining permission from the copyright holder. The risk of claims resulting from infringement of any third-party-owned component in the work rests solely with the user. Sales, rights and licensing. FAO information products are available on the FAO website (www.fao.org/publications) and can be purchased through [email protected]. Requests for commercial use should be submitted via: www.fao.org/contact-us/licence-request. Queries regarding rights and licensing should be submitted to: [email protected]. GIEWS CROP PROSPECTS AND FOOD SITUATION #2 JULY 2021 CONTENTS COUNTRIES REQUIRING EXTERNAL ASSISTANCE FOR FOOD 2 GLOBAL CEREAL OVERVIEW 7 LOW-INCOME FOOD-DEFICIT COUNTRIES’ FOOD SITUATION OVERVIEW 10 REGIONAL REVIEWS AFRICA - Overview 12 NORTH AFRICA 13 WEST AFRICA 14 CENTRAL AFRICA 16 EAST AFRICA 17 SOUTHERN AFRICA 20 ASIA - Overview 22 FAR EAST 23 NEAR EAST 26 CIS IN ASIA 27 LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN - Overview 29 CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN 30 SOUTH AMERICA 32 NORTH AMERICA, EUROPE AND OCEANIA - Overview 35 NORTH AMERICA 36 EUROPE 36 OCEANIA 38 STATISTICAL APPENDIX Table A1. Global cereal supply and demand indicators 39 Table A2. World cereal stocks 40 Table A3. Selected international prices of wheat and coarse grains 41 Table A4a. Estimated cereal import requirements of Low-Income Food-Deficit Countries in 2020/2021 or 2021 42 Table A4b. Estimated cereal import requirements of Low-Income Food-Deficit Countries in 2020/2021 or 2021 43 GIEWS CROP PROSPECTS AND FOOD SITUATION #2 JULY 2021 COUNTRIES REQUIRING EXTERNAL ASSISTANCE FOR FOOD AFRICA (34 countries) - Burkina Faso - Burundi - Cabo Verde - Cameroon - Central African Republic - Chad - Congo - Democratic Republic of Congo - Djibouti - Eritrea - Eswatini - Ethiopia ** See Terminology (page 6) - Guinea Source: GIEWS, 2021. Crop Prospects and Food Situation #2 [online]. [Cited 8 July 2021], modified to comply with the United Nations map No. 4170 Rev. 19, 2020. - Kenya - Lesotho In addition to the factors listed below, the following countries have been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic - Liberia and as a result, the impact of the pandemic is considered as a key factor that has worsened food insecurity and - Libya increased the need for humanitarian assistance in all countries, although it may not be mentioned specifically. - Madagascar - Malawi eastern pastoral, agro-pastoral and marginal - Mali AFRICA (34 COUNTRIES) - Mauritania agriculture areas. - Mozambique EXCEPTIONAL SHORTFALL IN - Namibia AGGREGATE FOOD PRODUCTION/ Somalia - Niger SUPPLIES Poor seasonal rains, civil insecurity, desert locusts - Nigeria • About 2.8 million people are estimated - Senegal Central African Republic to be severely food insecure (IPC Phase 3: - Sierra Leone Conflict, population displacements “Crisis” and IPC Phase 4: “Emergency”) in - Somalia • According to the latest Integrated Food the April−September 2021 period, mainly - South Sudan Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis, as a result of the cumulative impact of poor - Sudan the number of severely food insecure people October−December 2020 “Deyr” rains and - Uganda (IPC Phase 3: "Crisis" and above) is estimated April−June “Gu” rains, which severely affected - United Republic of Tanzania at 2.3 million in the April−August 2021 lean crop and livestock production. - Zambia season, due to armed violence that followed the - Zimbabwe December 2020 elections, adding to the already ASIA (9 countries) high levels of civil insecurity. WIDESPREAD LACK OF ACCESS - Afghanistan • About 1.4 million people are either - Bangladesh internally displaced or refugees in Burundi - Democratic People’s Republic neighbouring countries. Weather extremes of Korea • About 1 million people are - Iraq Kenya estimated to be severely food insecure in the - Lebanon Poor seasonal rains, desert locusts June−September 2021 period, mainly due - Myanmar • About 2 million people were estimated to be to livelihood losses caused by poor rains in - Pakistan severely food insecure in the March−May 2021 northern areas and by floods in western areas - Syrian Arab Republic period, reflecting the poor performance of both bordering Lake Tanganyika. The socio-economic - Yemen the October−December 2020 “short-rains” and impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN (2 countries) the March−May 2021 “long-rains” that affected put further constraints on livelihoods of - Haiti crop and livestock production in
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