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Detailed Scoping Study (DSS) for Vision 2063 Africa Integrated High Speed Railway Network and Masterplan

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Detailed Scoping Study (DSS) for Vision 2063 Africa Integrated High Speed Railway Network and Masterplan WORKING PAPER 2: LINK PRIORITIZATION, AND RECOMMENDED PILOT PROJECTS Detailed scoping Study (DSS) for Vision 2063 Africa Integrated High Speed Railway Network and Masterplan Prepared for: African Union Commission (AUC) African Union Development Agency (AUDA- NEPAD) Prepared by: In association with: Aurecon AMEI Ltd ILF Consulting Engineer CPCS Ref: 16528 April 8, 2019 979 Bank St., Suite 200 Ottawa, Ontario Canada K1S 5K5 [email protected] www.cpcs.ca Ottawa, Canada CPCS Ref: 16528 April 8, 2019 To: NEPAD Planning and Coordination Agency, 230, 15th Road, Randjespark, P.O. Box 218, Midrand 1685, South Africa Telephone: +251-11-551 7700 Dear Sirs: Re: Detailed scoping Study (DSS) for Vision 2063 Africa Integrated High Speed Railway Network and Masterplan (Procurement No: 005/RIIT/CEO/CS/QCBS/16) Submission of Working Paper 2: Link Prioritization and Recommended Pilot Projects We are pleased to submit this working paper on project prioritization for the above- referenced project. This working paper presents the recommended pilot projects based on the prioritization framework discussed and agreed with the client. Yours very truly, CPCS Transcom Limited George Kaulbeck Team Leader Working Paper 2 | Detailed scoping Study (DSS) for Vision 2063 Africa Integrated High CPCS Ref: 16528 Speed Railway Network and Masterplan Table of Contents Acronyms/Abbreviations ...................................................................................................... 4 1 Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 6 Authority for the Assignment ......................................................................................... 6 The Assignment............................................................................................................... 6 1.2.1 Project Background and Context ............................................................................. 6 1.2.2 Objectives ................................................................................................................ 7 Purpose of This Working Paper ...................................................................................... 8 Structure of This Working Paper..................................................................................... 8 2 HSR Project Prioritization – Process and Criteria ................................................................ 9 Introduction .................................................................................................................... 9 Defining Base Unit for Analysis ....................................................................................... 9 Link Prioritization Process ............................................................................................. 10 Prioritization Criteria for MCA ...................................................................................... 11 2.4.1 Considerations ....................................................................................................... 11 2.4.2 MCA Criteria Applied for Link Prioritization .......................................................... 11 Geographic Distribution of Pilot Projects ..................................................................... 14 2.5.1 Distributing Pilot Projects over Geographic Regions ............................................ 14 3 Definition of Links and Traffic Potential ........................................................................... 16 How Links (Base Unit of Analysis) Was Defined ........................................................... 16 Links Analyzed ............................................................................................................... 17 Traffic Assignment to Links ........................................................................................... 19 3.3.1 Freight Traffic ........................................................................................................ 19 3.3.2 Passenger Traffic ................................................................................................... 21 4 Multi-Criteria Analysis ..................................................................................................... 23 Analysis Methodology................................................................................................... 23 4.1.1 Converting Each Parameter to Points ................................................................... 23 4.1.2 Aggregating Points with Weights .......................................................................... 29 MCA Ranking ................................................................................................................. 30 Appendix A. Length of Existing Long-Distance Rail Network by Country .......................... 32 Appendix B. Power Consumption per Person by Country ................................................ 34 Appendix C. Financial Analysis Methodology and Results ............................................... 36 Appendix D. Economic Analysis Methodology and Results .............................................. 44 Appendix E. Government Debt to GDP ........................................................................... 49 | 1 Working Paper 2 | Detailed scoping Study (DSS) for Vision 2063 Africa Integrated High CPCS Ref: 16528 Speed Railway Network and Masterplan Appendix F. Political Stability Index ............................................................................... 51 Appendix G. Doing Business Index .................................................................................. 53 Appendix H. Number of Countries Involved in a Link....................................................... 55 Appendix I. Status of CFTA Ratification .......................................................................... 58 Appendix J. MCA Raw Data ........................................................................................... 60 Appendix K. MCA Scoring ............................................................................................... 62 List of Figures Figure 2-1: Country Grouping for Distributing Pilot Projects ...................................................... 15 Figure 3-1: Map of 74 Links and Environmentally Sensitive Areas ............................................. 18 Figure 3-2: Comparison of Cost ($/ton) of Rail versus Multi-modal Transport as a Function of Origin-Destination Distance (km) ................................................................................................ 19 Figure 3-3: Freight Traffic Estimates by Link (Tonnes), 2018 ...................................................... 20 Figure 3-4: Passenger Trip Estimates by Link (Number of Trips), 2018 ...................................... 22 Figure 4-1: Recommended Projects for Accelerated Piloting and Potential Piloting ................. 31 List of Tables Table 2-1: Applied MCA Framework ........................................................................................... 12 Table 3-1: List of 74 Links ............................................................................................................ 17 Table 3-2 Assumptions Used in Calculations ............................................................................... 19 Table 3-3: Passenger Rail Statistics ............................................................................................. 21 Table 4-1: Parameter A: Length of Long-Distance Rail Network (Route-Km) Currently Being Operated ...................................................................................................................................... 23 Table 4-2: Parameter A: Length of Long-Distance Rail Network (Route-Km) Currently Being Operated – Scoring Examples ...................................................................................................... 24 Table 4-3: Parameter B: Power Generation per Person (KWH per Person) ................................ 24 Table 4-4: Parameter B: Power Generation per Person (KWH per Person) – Scoring Examples 25 Table 4-5: Parameter C: Financial Return .................................................................................... 25 Table 4-6: Parameter C: Financial Return – Scoring Examples .................................................... 26 Table 4-7: Parameter D: Economic Return .................................................................................. 26 Table 4-8: Parameter D: Economic Return – Scoring Examples .................................................. 26 Table 4-9: Parameter E: Government Debt to GDP .................................................................... 26 Table 4-10: Parameter E: Government Debt to GDP – Scoring Examples .................................. 27 Table 4-11: Parameter F: Political Stability Index ....................................................................... 27 Table 4-12: Parameter F: Political Stability Index – Scoring Examples ....................................... 27 Table 4-13: Parameter G: Doing Business Index ......................................................................... 28 | 2 Working Paper 2 | Detailed scoping Study (DSS) for Vision 2063 Africa Integrated High CPCS Ref: 16528 Speed Railway Network and Masterplan Table 4-14: Parameter G: Doing Business Index – Scoring Examples ......................................... 28 Table 4-15: Parameter H: Number of Countries involved in the Link ......................................... 28
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