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A Model Based Approach to Determine Passenger Demand at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol

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A Model Based Approach to Determine Passenger Demand at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol The “future traveller” A model based approach to determine passenger demand at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Arjan de Witt November, 2011 Part I Main Report 2 Project Details Master thesis project: The “future traveller” A model based approach to determine passenger demand at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Personal Details Author: Arjan de Witt Student number: 1236571 Telephone Number: +31 625342234 Email: [email protected] Study program Study program: Systems Engineering Policy Analysis and Management Graduation department Transport and Logistics Faculty: Technology, Policy and Management University: Delft University of Technology Graduation Committee Chairman: Prof. Dr. Bert van Wee Supervisor Schiphol Group: Ir. Wouter Tulfer First Supervisor: Dr. Jan Anne Annema Second Supervisor: Dr.ir. Jan Kwakkel Keywords Strategic management/ Air Traffic/ Schiphol Airport/ Scenario Analysis/ Quantitative model/ Forecasts 3 4 Preface Although sometimes the last eight months were hard, I really enjoyed the time I spend on this project. From the start I was really sucked into this project, the combination of aviation, strategic decision making and modelling were a perfect match for me. In the project I was able to combine my interest in aviation, with specific knowledge from my study. I am glad to see that I could apply a large number of the methods I learned during my study. The combination of a modeling approach, together with qualitative insights and a scenario analysis really fits with the TPM background. At the same time I had to obtain a lot of specific knowledge about the aviation sector. The project’s strategic level was one of the main difficulties of the project, whereas I did not have much prior experience doing so in my study. The industry’s complexity makes it very hard to do more precise forecasts. The dependencies in the industry between actors, the dependency on supply variables and the on-going changes in the industry impede the creation of forecasts. Also during the interviews I sometimes experienced the resistance because of business political reasons. I want to conclude with thanking the people without whom this report would be finalized. First of all I would like to thank my direct supervisors, Wouter, Jan Anne, Jan and Bert. Secondly I would like to thank the Schiphol Group for giving me the opportunity to do my graduation thesis and all employees that provided me with data and or information, a special thanks to Hylke from this perspective. At last I would like to thank the interviewees for their time and their effort. They provided me with a lot of knowledge and indepth discussions. 5 Index Project Details ......................................................................................................................................... 3 Personal Details ................................................................................................................................... 3 Study program ..................................................................................................................................... 3 Graduation Committee ....................................................................................................................... 3 Keywords ............................................................................................................................................. 3 Preface ..................................................................................................................................................... 5 Index ........................................................................................................................................................ 6 Index of tables ......................................................................................................................................... 8 Table of figures ........................................................................................................................................ 9 Executive summary ............................................................................................................................... 10 Chapter 1. Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 13 1.1 Problem statement...................................................................................................................... 13 1.2 Problem analysis .......................................................................................................................... 13 Chapter 2. Research structure............................................................................................................... 15 2.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 15 2.2 Thesis Objectives ......................................................................................................................... 15 2.3 Research questions ..................................................................................................................... 16 2.4 Problem scope ............................................................................................................................. 16 2.5. Current research at Schiphol airport .......................................................................................... 17 2.6 Shortcomings current analyses ................................................................................................... 17 2.7 Scientific relevance ...................................................................................................................... 18 2.8 Research approach ...................................................................................................................... 18 2.9 Research methods ....................................................................................................................... 19 2.9.1 Literature review .................................................................................................................. 19 2.9.2 Interviewing .......................................................................................................................... 19 2.9.3 Data analysis ......................................................................................................................... 20 2.9.4 Modelling .............................................................................................................................. 20 2.9.5 Scenario analysis .................................................................................................................. 20 2.10 Deliverables ............................................................................................................................... 21 Chapter 3. Context ................................................................................................................................ 22 3.1 Schiphol Group ............................................................................................................................ 22 3.2 Schiphol airport ........................................................................................................................... 22 3.3 Other actors involved .................................................................................................................. 24 Chapter 4. Challenges and opportunities in the air transport sector ................................................... 26 4.1 Introduction into aviation ........................................................................................................... 26 4.2 Who will be the future traveler? ................................................................................................. 27 4.2.1 General trend ....................................................................................................................... 27 4.2.2 Chinese market ..................................................................................................................... 30 4.2.3 Indian Market ....................................................................................................................... 32 4.2.4 Ageing ................................................................................................................................... 32 4.2.5 Miscellaneous ....................................................................................................................... 34 4.3 What are the major uncertainties in air travel for Schiphol airport? ......................................... 35 4.3.1 De-hubbing ........................................................................................................................... 35 4.3.2 Low cost development ......................................................................................................... 39 4.3.3 Environmental awareness .................................................................................................... 41 4.3.4 Economic growth and globalization ..................................................................................... 42 4.3.5 Scarcity of resources ............................................................................................................ 42 4.3.6 Consolidation ........................................................................................................................ 42 4.3.7 Miscellaneous
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