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World Bank Group World Bank Group Public Disclosure Authorized Bandar Lampung Water Supply and Demand Assessment Bandar Lampung Water Supply and Demand Assessment Report REP/277440/R001 Final | 12 August 2013 Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Job number 277440 Arup Singapore Pte Ltd Reg No 200100731M Arup Singapore Pte Ltd 10 Hoe Chiang Road #26-01 Keppel Towers Singapore 089315 www.arup.com Disclaimer The analysis in this Bandar Lampung Water Supply and Demand Assessment Report has been prepared by ARUP for the sole use of the party or parties to whom it is addressed and for the purposes specified. Neither the whole nor any part of this report nor any reference may be included in or with or attached to any document, published, quoted or disseminated or used for any purpose without ARUP's written consent to the form and context in which it appears. ARUP accepts no responsibility, for any loss or claim occasioned by any person acting or refraining from action as a result of reliance on the report other than the World Bank. The [statements, opinions and forecasts] attributable to ARUP are given in good faith and on the basis that such [statements, opinions and forecasts] are neither false nor misleading in any way. In producing this report, ARUP has considered and relied on information provided by the World Bank, PDAM and Balai Besar as well as information available in the public domain. While every effort has been made to verify information, neither ARUP or its directors, other officers, employees or consultants accepts any liability for its accuracy nor do any of them warrant that ARUP's inquiries have revealed all matters which a more extensive examination may disclose. ARUP has no pecuniary interest, other than to the extent of the professional fees for the preparation of this report, or other interest in the World Bank that could reasonably be regarded as affecting ARUP's ability to undertake a water and supply demand assessment for the city of Bandar Lampung. Any right or remedy conferred on the World Bank by applicable law as a result of the information contained in the Bandar Lampung Water Supply and Demand Assessment Report or any other information being incomplete or inaccurate is limited to the full extent permitted by law. The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the Australian Agency for International Development (AusAID) or the World Bank Group. REP/277440/R001 | Final | 12 August 2013 J:\227000\227440-00 BANDAR LAMPUNG POTENTIAL\WORK\INTERNAL\REPORTS\FINAL REPORT 09 MAY 2013\FINAL REPORT REV D 120813 (PUBLIC ISSUE).DOCX World Bank Group Bandar Lampung Water Supply and Demand Assessment Bandar Lampung Water Supply and Demand Assessment Report Contents Page Executive Summary 1 1 Introduction 4 1.1 Background and Problem Description 4 1.2 Study Scope 4 1.3 Previous Studies 4 1.4 Site inspections 7 1.5 Stakeholder Consultation 8 2 Description of Study Area 9 2.1 Study Location 9 2.2 Topography and Climate 10 2.4 Geology and Hydrogeology 12 2.5 Water Resources 14 2.6 Social-Economic 15 3 Existing Water Supply in Bandar Lampung 17 3.1 Existing Water Supply Sources 17 3.2 National Regulations 20 4 Demand Projections 22 4.1 Population 22 4.2 Water Demand Projections 23 4.3 Willingness to connect 27 4.4 Tariff Demand Sensitivity Model 29 4.5 PDAM Piped Supply 32 4.6 Reducing NRW to Influence Water Demand 34 5 Future Water Supply Sources 35 5.1 Options for Water Supply 35 5.2 Summary of Water Supply Options 47 6 Conclusions 52 7 Recommended Additional Studies / Investigations 55 8 Technical Principles for Memo of Understanding 56 8.1 Introduction 56 8.2 Federal and Local Government Structure for the Management of Water Resources 57 REP/277440/R001 | Final | 12 August 2013 J:\227000\227440-00 BANDAR LAMPUNG POTENTIAL\WORK\INTERNAL\REPORTS\FINAL REPORT 09 MAY 2013\FINAL REPORT REV D 120813 (PUBLIC ISSUE).DOCX World Bank Group Bandar Lampung Water Supply and Demand Assessment Bandar Lampung Water Supply and Demand Assessment Report 8.3 Way Sekampung Basin Water Allocation 60 8.4 Technical Principals for Memorandum of Understanding 61 References Tables Table 1: Current PDAM Water Supply System Table 2: MARS Survey – Potable Water Sources Table 3: Past Population Growth Table 4: Bandar Lampung City Population Projection Table 5: Per Capita Water Demand Scenarios Table 6: Estimated Historical Average Non-Revenue Water Table 7: Future NRW Projections Table 8: Average Water Demand Projections Table 9: PDAM Pipe Water Supply Table 10: Summary of Way Sekampung Water Balance Table 11: Costs comparison of traditional water treatment plants and desalination plants Table 12: Summary of Initial Options Assessment Table 13: Summary of Future Piped Water Demands Figures Figure 1: Study Location: Lampung Province Figure 2: Study Area – City of Bandar Lampung Figure 3: City of Bandar Lampung Topography Figure 4: Average Temperature and Rainfall Figure 5: Southern Lampung Province – Geology and Hydrogeology Figure 6: Volcanic Eruptions and Seismic Activity Figure 7: Bandar Lampung City Population Projection Figure 8: Split of Domestic vs. Non-Domestic Demand Figure 9: Estimated Historical Non-Revenue Water Figure 10: Net Water Demand Projection Figure 11: Demand and Willingness to Connect Surveys Figure 12: Tariff Demand Sensitivity Model Figure 13: Tariff Demand Sensitivity Model Figure 14: Future Piped Water Demand Figure 15: Study Area Figure 16: Way Sekampung Flow Balance Schematic Figure 17: Water Allocation – Key Stakeholders and Decision Makers in the Way Sekampung Basin REP/277440/R001 | Final | 12 August 2013 J:\227000\227440-00 BANDAR LAMPUNG POTENTIAL\WORK\INTERNAL\REPORTS\FINAL REPORT 09 MAY 2013\FINAL REPORT REV D 120813 (PUBLIC ISSUE).DOCX World Bank Group Bandar Lampung Water Supply and Demand Assessment Bandar Lampung Water Supply and Demand Assessment Report Figure 18: Key Technical Principals for MOU Appendices Appendix A Photographs Appendix B Additional Study References Appendix C Way Sekampung Water Balance Appendix D Current PDAM Information Appendix E World Bank Feedback REP/277440/R001 | Final | 12 August 2013 J:\227000\227440-00 BANDAR LAMPUNG POTENTIAL\WORK\INTERNAL\REPORTS\FINAL REPORT 09 MAY 2013\FINAL REPORT REV D 120813 (PUBLIC ISSUE).DOCX World Bank Group Bandar Lampung Water Supply and Demand Assessment Bandar Lampung Water Supply and Demand Assessment Report Executive Summary Less than 35% of the population of Bandar Lampung is connected to an organised piped potable water supply system. The remaining population and industry relies heavily on groundwater extraction bores. As population densities have increased, the quality and quantity of shallow well water has deteriorated, particularly near the coast. Therefore whilst a portion of the population will continue to rely on dug wells for their principle source of water, the provision of a safe reliable piped water supply is an urgent requirement for most residents. With regards to the existing piped water supply system, the quality and reliability of supply is very variable and most residents are forced to have alternative supply sources and are required to boil the tap water as minimum if used for drinking or cooking purposes. In addition, the piped distribution is very inefficient and up to half of the water produced at supply is lost in the network through a combination of pipe leaks (due to natural deterioration and poor construction and maintenance) and illegal tap-offs. Therefore these factors mean that the Bandar Lampung needs a secure and consistent source of water supply to meet the growing demand and a better, more effective method of distributing the water throughout the city. The desktop study undertaken in this assessment has looked at the current and future water demands, the current water supply sources and future water supply options and recommendations for the development of piped water supply to meet the requirements of the city. Arup notes the limitations of this study in that it was primarily a desktop exercise which relied on information from previous reports and investigations and high level consultation with relevant stakeholders. To confirm the findings of this report it is recommended that additional site investigation is conducted and that a detailed feasibility study is undertaken (refer to Section 7 for more information). The future demand for piped water has been calculated by reviewing the project population growth and their appetite for connecting to a piped network (based upon current and future tariffs). The results have indicated that with the current infrastructure in place, in 2015 there will be a deficit of approximately 955 l/s which will increase by 250% to 2,279 l/s in 2040. Piped water supply in Bandar Lampung is the responsibility of the Bandar Lampung Water Authority (PDAM Way Rilau). The PDAM piped water system is made up of a combination of surface water supply sources such as rivers and springs, and ground water extraction bores. Currently PDAM sources around 75% of their total supply of 600 l/s from the Way Kuripan, which is one of the largest rivers running through the city. Based on the current supply, PDAM will need to find alternative sources of water for an additional demand of 355 l/s in 2015 increasing to 1,679 l/s by 2040. The selection of potential new water sources depend their size and consistency and the cost to implement the solution. This assessment has looked at the following new potential water sources: • Surface water supply • Ground water supply • Recycled water REP/277440/R001 | Final | 12 August 2013 Page 1 J:\227000\227440-00 BANDAR LAMPUNG POTENTIAL\WORK\INTERNAL\REPORTS\FINAL REPORT 09 MAY 2013\FINAL REPORT REV D 120813 (PUBLIC ISSUE).DOCX World Bank Group Bandar Lampung Water Supply and Demand Assessment Bandar Lampung Water Supply and Demand Assessment Report • Desalinated water Each of the options has advantages and disadvantages.
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