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Economic Snapshot Phnom Penh Sihanoukville Siem Reap

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ECONOMIC SNAPSHOT PHNOM PENH SIHANOUKVILLE SIEM REAP ECONOMIC SNAPSHOT Cambodia’s economy held firm during H1 2019 despite the geopolitical climate continuing to weigh down on global market sentiment and the strengthening of the USD ROSS WHEBLE Country Head According to the National Bank of Cambodia’s withdrawal from the Everything Cambodia (NBC), the Kingdom is on but Arms (EBA) agreement has been a hot “Cambodia’s withdrawal track to achieve GDP growth of 7.1% topic of discussion but the latest data from from the Everything but Arms during 2019. This is in line with the Asian the Garment Manufacturers Association in (EBA) agreement has been Development Bank, which forecasts Cambodia indicates that 34 new garment a hot topic of discussion Cambodia to record the highest GDP factories opened during the first half of growth within ASEAN (figure 1) at 7.0% 2019 whilst 10 ceased operation, equating but the latest data from the during 2019. to a net increase of 24 factories. Garment Manufacturers Association in Cambodia The NBC’s bi-annual report states that In addition to the above economic indicates that 34 new GDP growth will be supported by the indicators, the much anticipated strong performance of the construction, population census was released during garment factories opened real estate and tourism sectors, whilst H1 2019, which gave mixed signals. during the first half of 2019 the contribution from agriculture will whilst 10 ceased operation, Surprisingly, the population growth rate continue to decline. equating to a net increase of of Cambodia declined between 2008 and Data compiled by the Council for the 2019 to 1.2% per annum compared with a 24 factories.” Development of Cambodia indicates that growth rate of 1.6% per annum recorded US$5.2 billion worth of investment flowed between 1998 and 2008 (figure 2), and the into the Kingdom during the first half of overall population was somewhat below 2019, a 46% increase compared with the previous forecasts of 16 million. same period during 2018. However, the growth of Phnom Penh’s As Cambodia continues to develop at a Whilst investment in construction and population was significantly above the mesmerising rate, now, more than ever, real estate continues to dominate the national average between 2008 and 2019 at there is a need for accurate and in local media headlines, the services 4.4% per annum, compared with a growth depth market analysis for investors and and industrial sectors remain the key rate of 2.9% per annum between 1998 and developers to make informed decisions contributors to GDP, at 39% and 36% 2008. This can be largely attributed to an based on solid market fundamentals. respectively. increasing urbanisation rate. FIGURE 1 FIGURE 2 2019 GDP GROWTH FORECASTS POPULATION GROWTH (POPULATION CENSUS 2019) % 8 Population (000’s) CAGR CAGR Locality (1998 – (2008 – 7 1998 2008 2019 2008) 2019) 6 5 Cambodia 11,438 13,396 15,288 1.6% 1.2% 4 3 Siem Reap 696 896 1,007 2.6% 1.1% 2 1 Phnom Penh 1,000 1,328 2,129 2.9% 4.4% 0 Laos Sihanoukville 156 221 303 3.5% 2.9% Brunei Vietnam Thailand Myanmar Indonesia Malaysia Cambodia Philippines Singapore Source: National Institute of Statistics, Ministry of Planning / Source: Asian Development Bank Knight Frank Research 2 KEY FINDINGS PHNOM PENH OFFICE SECTOR The completion of Diamond The overall vacancy rate increased to 17% as at the Twin Tower, Elysee Tower and Prince Holding contributed end of H1 2019, a five percentage point Y-o-Y increase approximately 46,444 sq m of due to additional supply of office buildings coming on net lettable area to the Phnom stream. Penh office stock, taking the total supply to 463,701 sq m. Supply and Demand The total supply of strata-title office stock Diamond Twin Tower, a mixed currently stands at 34,577 sq m and, by development comprising H1 2019 saw the addition the end of 2019, the stock is forecasted to condominiums, office and of three office buildings in triple to 104,749 sq m of office NLA. retail components, was the Phnom Penh, all within the Elysee Tower and Prince Holding are both third stratified office building Grade B classification. Grade B centrally owned rental office to be added Phnom Penh’s buildings, contributing 12,609 sq m and office stock. At the end of first half of 2019, Phnom 18,600 sq m, respectively to the total Penh office supply (rental and strata- office stock. Of the overall supply, 45% title) increased by 46,444 sq m to of existing office space was recorded as The new incoming supply 463,701 sq m, equating to an 11% Grade C space, followed closely by Grade placed downward pressure increase since the end of 2018 and a B at 43%, whilst Grade A space currently on the overall average Y-o-Y increase of 23%. only represents 12% of the office market. occupancy, dropping 5.2 percentage points to 83.3% During H1 2019, three Grade B office Post 2021, the Phnom Penh office supply during H1 2019. buildings completed, contributing a total will comprise approximately 1,059,170 of 46,444 sq m namely; Diamond Twin sq m of net lettable area, a 130% Tower, Elysee Tower and Prince Holding. increase over the existing supply. Yield-driven investors may Diamond Twin tower was the latest be attracted to stratified The office stock is forecasted to increase addition to the strata-title office basket office investments as by an additional 595,469 sq m by post contributing 15,235 sq m to the existing 2021, if all monitored projects complete the condominium market strata-title office stock, which also as scheduled. Four new projects continues to cool down. comprises TK Royal One and East launched and/or commenced ground Commercial Centre. breaking during H1 2019; Flatiron By Meridian, Golden Tower 322, Prince Haon Yu Centre and Prince Financial Tower. FIGURE 3 EXISTING SUPPLY BY DISTRICT Flatiron By Meridian and Golden Tower 322 will provide an aggregate net lettable area of 36,980 sq m. No information of net lettable area could be obtained for Prince Haon Yu Centre and Prince Financial Tower, therefore our analysis excludes these buildings. As Phnom Penh’s Central Business District, Daun Penh remains the most concentrated district for office buildings. Daun Penh 32% Toul Kork 4% 7 Makara 17% Chroy Changva 1% Central Phnom Penh remains the main Chamkarmon 25% Sen Sok 4% concentration for office developments Bueng Keng Kong 15% Meanchey 2% with 93% market share whilst suburban DIAMOND TWIN TOWER, PHNOM PENH areas such as Chroy Chongva, Sen Sok Source: Knight Frank Research and Meanchey, which are upcoming 3 CAMBODIA REAL ESTATE HIGHLIGHTS PHNOM PENH satellite cities, currently comprise only to 82.0% as a result of the substantial anticipate rental rates in the near future 7% of the existing stock. Existing office increase in Grade B office supply. to face downward pressure as landlords supply is concentrated in Daun Penh compete to fill up their buildings. There were no new Grade A offices (32%), followed by Chamkarmon (25%), completed during H1 2019 thus supply With the high-end condominium 7 Makara (17%), Boeung Keng Kang remained the same; with a positive segment reaching saturation, yield- (15%) and Toul Kork with (4%). net absorption, the occupancy rate driven investors are switching their focus Boeung Keng Kang was formally under improved by 3.3 percentage points to stratified offices which generally the administration of Chamkarmon. Earlier compare with H1 2018 to 76.7%. provide a more stable income stream, this year, a sub-decree was issued by the with business tenants tending to sign government to establish Boeung Keng Strata-title offices recorded longer lease terms. On top of that, Kang as a standalone district. a relatively high vacancy office unit owners also have an option rate during H1 2019 at 68% to tap into the increasingly popular co- By the end of 2019, an working space market. All these factors additional 115,421 sq m To-date, only 32% of strata-title office are prompting developers to build and NLA spread across eight space is occupied. The low occupancy provide office developments. rate is largely due the recent completion office buildings expected SME companies and smaller startups of Diamond Twin Tower. Furthermore, to complete. looking to rent office may also be MNC’s generally still prefer to take attracted to stratified offices for its 45,249 sq m of the stock will be up space in centrally retained office capital growth potential. centrally retained whilst the remaining buildings with a single owner and a more 70,172 sq m will be sold on strata title to corporate style entrance lobby. The increasing number of office individual owners. completions will create a more competitive office landscape with Of the total incoming office stock, Grade Prices and Rental A space will contribute 35,913 sq m landlords of centrally retained offices As a result of continuous office supply NLA whilst Grade B office space will competing with individual owners of swelling, specifically Grade B and C, contribute 72,508 sq m of NLA. strata office units. It is anticipated that office rentals remained unchanged across owners of individual office units will likely Between 2019 and post 2021, a total of all grades. Grade A, B and C offices be more flexible, especially in rental 480,047 sq m NLA of office stock will be command rentals ranging between US$28 rates, to secure a tenant for their unit. added onto the office supply, assuming to US$40 per sq m per month, US$18 to all our monitored projects are completed US$29 and US$9 to US$18, respectively For future strata office projects, as scheduled.
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