Israel and Middle East News Update

Friday, February 19

Headlines: ● Israeli Woman Who Crossed Into Syria Returns to Israel ● Bennett: 'It’s Time to Fire CEO' of Israel ● Gantz: Ground in Lebanon Will Shake in War with Israel ● Biden Repudiates Trump on Iran, Ready for Talks ● US and Israel Announce Work on New Arrow 4 ● Palestinian President's Rival Promises Vaccines for Gaza ● UAE Dismantles Base as It Pulls Back After Yemen War ● US Defense Secretary Calls MBS, Reaffirms Strategic Ties

Commentary: ● Ma’ariv: “The Liars’ Club’’ - By Ben Caspit

● Ma’ariv: “Bibi’s Choice’’ - By Alon Ben David

S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace 1725 I St NW Suite 300, Washington, DC 20006 The Hon. Robert Wexler, President Editor: Yousef Bashir News Excerpts February 19, 2021 Times of Israel Israeli Woman Who Crossed Into Syria Returns to Israel An Israeli woman who crossed into Syria and had been held by the Syrian regime landed in Israel after over a week of diplomatic wrangling to secure her return. The woman, who has not been identified, flew from Moscow and landed at Ben Gurion International Airport near Tel Aviv. She spoke with her family before takeoff and was expected to be questioned by the Shin Bet internal security service, according to Hebrew media reports. Israel released two Syrian shepherds and reduced the sentence of a Golan Heights resident in what was widely seen as an exchange deal. Accompanying the woman on the flight were Asher Hayun, a staffer for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Yaron Bloom, government coordinator for negotiating the return of POWs and MIAs, representatives of the National Security Council and a doctor who checked the woman’s health.

I24 News Bennett: 'It’s Time to Fire CEO' of Israel Naftali Bennett, head of the right-wing Yamina party, ripped into Israel's unity government in an interview for i24NEWS and Israel Hayom. "It’s time to fire the CEO" of the country, he declared in a jab aimed at Netanyahu, bashing him over his failure to apply Israel's sovereignty to West Bank areas in summer 2020. He did not reject sitting in a government with Netanyahu's Likud, however, saying that he respected the will of Netanyahu's supporters. Bringing sovereignty back on the table in Israeli politics was one of the things Yamina would look to do, Bennett said. Addressing Israel's ties with the US, he touted his understanding of the American mentality and hailed the US as Israel's "biggest ally." Bennett said that, if elected, he was likely to see eye to eye with the administration of President Joe Biden on most things, while disagreeing on some matters -- which is normal in politics. Dig Deeper ‘‘Playing Dirty? New Hope Said to Be Behind Smear Campaign Targeting Yamina's Bennett’’ (Israel Hayom)

Jerusalem Post Gantz: Ground in Lebanon Will Shake in War with Israel If Israel has to fight with Hezbollah, “the ground in Lebanon will tremble, and the terrorist organization will be severely hit,” Defense Minister Benny Gantz said. Gantz’s comments come as the IDF intelligence assessed in its annual prediction of 2021 that Hezbollah is deterred and will not drag Israel into a war, but it will try to initiate “days of battle” in which the combat is limited. According to this assessment, Hezbollah is exercising its idea of “the equation,” whereby it must avenge the killing of its members even if it takes months or years. Earlier this week, the Israel Air Force conducted a surprise drill in which the entire force practiced a response to an attack on an Israeli fighter jet. Dig Deeper ‘‘Hezbollah Chief Threatens Israel After IDF Drill Directed at Terror Group’’ (Times of Israel) 2 Associated Press Biden Repudiates Trump on Iran, Ready for Talks The Biden administration said it’s ready to join talks with Iran and world powers to discuss a return to the 2015 nuclear deal. The administration also took two steps at the UN aimed at restoring policy to what it was before Trump withdrew from the deal in 2018. The combined actions were immediately criticized by Iran hawks and are likely to draw concern from Israel and Gulf Arab states. In addition to signaling a willingness to talk with Iran, the administration also reversed Trump’s determination that all UN sanctions against Iran had been restored. And, it eased stringent restrictions on the domestic travel of Iranian diplomats posted to the UN. The State Department announced the moves following discussions between Secretary of State Antony Blinken and his British, French and German counterparts, and as Biden prepares to participate, albeit virtually, in his first major international events with world leaders.

Times of Israel US and Israel Announce Work on New Arrow 4 Israel and the US have begun developing the Arrow 4, the latest generation in the family of Israeli anti-ballistic missiles and an essential part of the country’s multi-layered defense system, Israel’s Defense Ministry announced. “The defense establishment is working round the clock to shield Israel’s skies from ballistic threats,” Defense Minister Benny Gantz said, praising the joint development with US partners. “It will bring a technological and operational leap to the future battlefield,” he added. According to Gantz, the Arrow 4 anti-ballistic missile will include upgraded capabilities and will join the existing Arrow family to “address a wide range of evolving threats in the region” adding that it is expected to replace the Arrow 2 in the coming decades. Vice Admiral Jon Hill, director of the US Missile Defense Agency, said the Arrow 4 joint development operation “expresses the United States’ commitment to assist the Israel in strengthening its national defense system against the missile threat.”

Ynet News Palestinian President's Rival Promises Vaccines for Gaza The UAE is sending 20,000 doses of the Russian coronavirus vaccine to the Gaza Strip, a rival to Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas announced, in a decision that could have repercussions for upcoming elections. The announcement by Mohammed Dahlan came a day after Abbas' government managed to deliver 2,000 vaccines to Gaza and appeared to be aimed in part at embarrassing the Palestinian president. Dahlan called the shipment a "generous grant" from the UAE "at a sensitive time where the pandemic is targeting all our beloved." An aide to Dahlan said the Sputnik V vaccines will be delivered to Gaza through Egypt. Dahlan called the shipment a "generous grant" from the UAE "at a sensitive time where the pandemic is targeting all our beloved." An aide to Dahlan said the Sputnik V vaccines will be delivered to Gaza through Egypt on Sunday. Dahlan, a former member of Abbas' Fatah party, has lived in exile in Abu Dhabi since falling out with Abbas in 2011. Dahlan was subsequently sentenced in absentia to three years in prison over alleged embezzlement. Dig Deeper ‘‘As Palestinians Plan Vote, Jerusalem Looms as Possible Obstacle — or Pretext’’ (Times of Israel)

3 Associated Press UAE Dismantles Base as It Pulls Back After Yemen War The UAE is dismantling parts of a military base it runs in the East African nation of Eritrea after it pulled back from the grinding war in nearby Yemen, satellite photos analyzed by The Associated Press show. The UAE built a port and expanded an airstrip in Assab beginning in September 2015, using the facility as a base to ferry heavy weaponry and Sudanese troops into Yemen as it fought alongside a Saudi-led coalition against Iranian-backed Houthi rebels there. The UAE appears to have found the limits of its military expansion in Yemen’s stalemate conflict, experts say. After it withdrew troops from the conflict, the satellite photos show it began shipping off equipment and tearing down even newly built structures. The Emiratis also built barracks, aircraft canopies and fencing across the 3.5-square-mile facility initially built in the 1930s by colonial power Italy. Over time, the UAE stationed Leclerc battle tanks, G6 self-propelled howitzers and BMP-3 amphibious fighting vehicles at the airport, according to UN experts. Those types of heavy weapons have been seen on Yemeni battlefields. Attack helicopters, drones and other aircraft have been seen on its runways. Dig Deeper ‘‘Saudi-Led Coalition in Yemen Moves Troops to Marib to Repel Houthi Assault’’ (Reuters)

Reuters US Defense Secretary Calls MBS, Reaffirms Strategic Ties US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin spoke to Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, state media said, days after the White House said it would deal with the king, not his heir, and US officials would engage their counterparties in the kingdom. Crown Prince Mohammed, who is also Saudi Defense Minister, reviewed bilateral relations with Austin, especially in defense cooperation, state news agency SPA said. Austin reaffirmed the importance of the strategic defense partnership between the two countries, and said the US was committed to helping Riyadh defend itself, condemning attacks launched into the kingdom by the Houthi group in Yemen. Austin said in a statement he had a productive call. President Biden said this week he plans to recalibrate US relations with Saudi Arabia and will conduct diplomacy through Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz rather than his powerful son the crown prince, widely referred to as MbS. Biden is returning to “counterpart to counterpart” engagement, the White House said.

4 Ma’ariv – February 19, 2021 The Liars’ Club By Ben Caspit ● The hundreds of thousands of Israelis who watched Binyamin Netanyahu’s lie- a-thon during his interview with Yonit Levi on Channel 12 can be divided into two camps. Half of them believe that they witnessed a performance that was the direct continuation of the giving of the Torah at the foot of Mount Sinai, another episode in a series of divine revelations eliciting a religious ecstasy, a pilot episode of the coming of the Messiah. From their point of view, it was 32 minutes of intoxication. The king floated like a butterfly, stung like a bee, abused the corpse of the interviewer, juggled around the studio, rattled off his usual bit and delivered the goods. ● The other half of the viewers needed superhuman restraint to keep from vomiting during the interview. They were horrified at the spring of lies filling the studio, the bottomless arrogance, the unfathomable obtuseness, the juvenile mantras, and particularly the cheap display of fake reality. The members of this group know that the presenter is an actor. That he didn’t mean a word he said to the interviewer facing him. That from his standpoint, the sole objective is to maintain his stranglehold on the country in order to evade justice, that he’s ready to burn down the clubhouse with the people inside, that he has no red lines whatsoever. ● These people don’t believe a word that comes out of that man’s mouth, while the others are willing to jump out of a plane in the middle of the night if he promises that they will come to no harm. This is an ongoing head-on collision between two civilizations, two zealous tribes who have put on war paint and physically suffer from the rival tribe’s very existence. Despite all of the aforementioned, here and there you can find a common denominator or transient consensus. For example, the lies of Netanyahu the defendant. The tribe to which I belong has grown modest over the years: its members don’t really care who replaces the Baron Munchausen’s clever heir who has taken over the country. Let that someone come from the right, the left, the center. What matters is that he no longer lie. They can’t listen to these lies anymore. ● The other side knows that he lies, too. They know, and they love every minute of it. The Bibi-ists live here with us and they possess all of the faculties to know that when Netanyahu says “there’s a budget, obviously there’s a budget,” he’s telling a blatant lie. They know that when he says “to date I haven’t had 61 seats,” he’s telling a blatant lie. Ditto when he says “from the moment we knew about the mutation, it took a matter of hours to close Ben Gurion Airport,” or when he explains that Israel is the only country that hermetically sealed its borders (never happened), or the first to emerge from the pandemic (absolutely not), and when he scatters another 17 lies (a total of 21 explicit lies were found in that same interview). The Bibi-ists hear and notice the lies, and it only intensifies their sense of team spirit. Moreover, when he showed up in the same studio, looked straight into the camera, and said in that famous baritone, “Benny, listen to me, let’s form a unity government for Israel’s benefit, I will vacate my place as prime minister

5 on November 22, no tricks and no shticks,” the dictator’s fan club knew damn well that he was lying. ● When they heard that lie, their eyes got foggy. They are in love with their liar to the very end. They’re proud of him. As far as they’re concerned, these aren’t lies, but the gospel truth, just because he said it. If he wakes up in the morning and tells them “good night,” they’ll go to sleep. They’ll know it’s morning, and yet… We have one tribe that lives inside a lie and is loving every minute of it, and another tribe whose insides are being gnawed away by the lie and whose life is being tarnished by it. One group that views lying as a legitimate way of life and even enjoys it, and another group that looks on in horror. Dan Meridor canvassed the Likud’s local chapters at the start of the last decade trying to garner support for negotiations with the Palestinians. When he explained to the activists that Bibi had given the Bar Ilan speech and consented to a Palestinian state, the activists proudly answered, “Yes, but he was lying!” That’s the whole story, in a nutshell. A struggle between the culture of lying and sticking to the truth. ● The main problem in the current situation is that the greater the progress in the process of normalizing lies, the more it constricts the truth and takes its place. The truth loses its exclusive claim to the truth. From now on one side tells “the truth,” while the other tells “the alternative truth.” The great prophet of this process was Donald Trump. He upgraded the whole process and led it into the digital age, but our Bibi had the first crack. He was lying for a living back in the nineties. When Obama and Sarkozy spoke privately (and didn’t know that their mics were on and a room full of journalists could hear them) and lamented having to deal with Netanyahu’s lies, they were telling the truth. Then again, where are they now, and where is he?

6 Ma’ariv – February 19, 2021 Bibi’s Choice By Alon Ben David ● Phase one of basic training ended successfully this week when the redeeming phone call from Washington arrived. The call was long and “good,” as both sides said. It was likely polite as well, but during the long wait, in the course of which he displayed commendable restraint, the prime minister learned that the aging president from Washington knows how to speak “na-na-na-na-na-na” too. Israel’s current goal is to convince the new administration to wait to make its decision about the Iranian nuclear program until it hears the Israeli position. Joe Biden and his associates signaled that they are willing to listen, and a window of opportunity was opened for Israel to make its case persuasively. Now Binyamin Netanyahu has to decide whether to join hands with the Biden administration in order to achieve an improved nuclear agreement, or to resume the confrontational line that he adopted with Barack Obama. Back then in 2015, the all-or- nothing approach that Netanyahu had adopted produced a fiery speech to Congress, which may have sounded pleasing to Israelis but did not have the slightest influence on America’s Iran policy. ● In view of that, Netanyahu’s decision to nominate National Security Advisor Meir Ben- Shabbat the “project manager” who will coordinate work with the Biden administration looks puzzling, if not worse than that. Although Ben-Shabbat was an excellent GSS officer, and no one disagrees that he is an expert on the Gazan issue, his poor knowledge of English and unfamiliarity with how the administration works in the United States means that his ability to have influence there is limited. The choice would be understandable if he were a top- notch expert on Iranian affairs or a master negotiator, but Ben-Shabbat doesn’t fit into those categories either. Netanyahu told quite a few of his interlocutors in recent months that he does not believe that an improved nuclear deal with Iran is attainable, and that the status quo without an agreement is preferable to a slightly improved agreement. Many senior security establishment officials disagree with him and believe that Iran can be led to an improved agreement, which will keep it decades away from obtaining nuclear capability, and that such an agreement is preferable to the status quo. Even the chief of staff, who is perceived as having toed Netanyahu’s line on the Iranian issue, believes that an improved agreement can and should be achieved. ● Israeli intelligence officials believe that the difference between Obama’s bad nuclear agreement and an improved one can be found in the little details, the kind that Iran can stomach but which will make a big difference. For example: placing restrictions on the production or import of carbon fiber, a critical component for the production of centrifuges for enriching uranium. Ostensibly, if the Iranians make a concession on a small and not symbolic detail—in effect, it would pose a substantial obstacle to the nuclear program. There is wall-to-wall consensus on one thing in the defense-intelligence community: there can be no going back to the expiration dates of the previous agreement. Going back to the old agreement would mean that Iran would be entitled to

7 export, import and develop ballistic missile components starting in 2023, it could resume nuclear R&D in 2026, and it could enrich uranium to its heart’s content in 2030. The previous nuclear agreement’s “sunset provision” is a de-facto license to produce nuclear weapons in less than ten years. ● Is Netanyahu’s choice of Ben-Shabbat as project manager a signal that he wants [Israel’s relationship] with the Biden administration to blow up? It’s highly unlikely that Netanyahu wants things to blow up at this stage, and today he doesn’t have the room to maneuver vis-à-vis Congress. Unlike during Obama’s term, Biden exercises total control of both houses of Congress. The obvious nominee for the job of project manager with the United States was Mossad Director Yossi Cohen, who will finish his term in another four and a half months. Cohen is an unparalleled expert on the nuclear issue and he is admired by senior administration officials and the US House of Representatives, and he was expected to be the natural pick for the job. It’s possible that recent weeks’ stories that portrayed Cohen as a future candidate for prime minister blew a fuse on Balfour, marking him as a potential threat. ● D., Cohen’s designated successor as Mossad director, is still waiting for the attorney general to authorize the nomination, which will only occur after the election. Meanwhile, he has already begun designing his Mossad with two significant nominees for the organization’s second- and third-highest ranking positions. A., who previously served as director of Keshet (the surveillance and wiretapping division) and currently is the head of the delegation in Washington, will be appointed D.’s deputy. Another A., who worked in Tzomet (the division that recruits and handles agents), will be appointed chief of staff. Cohen gave his blessing to both of these appointments. Although Cohen has not been appointed the project manager, he will probably be the first senior Israeli official to hold meetings with the new administration. His trip to Washington has been postponed until next month, waiting for Bill Burns to be confirmed as director of the CIA. Cohen is scheduled to meet with the Americans’ entire top brass and will be able to put out feelers to see just how open the administration really is to being influenced on the Iranian issue. Then Israel will have to decide whether it’s boarding the train, even if it doesn’t lead to the final destination, or whether it will once again stay demonstratively at the station.

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