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February 26 2020 Netanyahu and Gantz Have Reversed Their Roles

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February 26 2020 Netanyahu and Gantz Have Reversed Their Roles Israel and the Middle East News Update Wednesday, February 26 Headlines: • Israel Form Agency to Prepare for Violence if Settlements Are Annexed • Ex-Mossad Chief: Threat from Gaza Worse Now Than During 2014 War • UN Calls for Two State Solution to be Respected in Middle East • Netanyahu, Ashkenazi Accuse Each Other of Lying, Getting Personal • Netanyahu Associate Hires Intel Firm to Dig Up Dirt on Gantz • 2020 Candidates Debate Reversing Relocation of U.S. Embassy in Israel • Pence, Pompeo to Speak at AIPAC Policy Conference • Egypt Declares Three Days of Mourning for Mubarak Commentary: • Ha’aretz: “These 50,000 Israelis Can Send Netanyahu Packing Next Week” - By Anshel Pfeffer, commentator at Ha’aretz • Yedioth Ahronoth: “Netanyahu and Gantz have Reversed Their Roles” - By Yuval Karny, commentator at Yedioth Ahronoth S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace 633 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, 5th Floor, Washington, DC 20004 www.centerpeace.org ● Yoni Komorov, Editor News Excerpts February 26, 2020 Ha’aretz Israel Form Agency to Prepare for Violence if Settlements Are Annexed The defense establishment has begun preparing for escalating civil and military unrest should the state impose Israeli sovereignty over West Bank settlements in the wake of next week's election. The Israel Defense Forces, the Israel Police, the Shin Bet security service and other defense agencies, together with representatives from government ministries, have begun to establish a joint body to coordinate a unified response in the event of a major outbreak of violence in the West Bank, Gaza Strip and other fronts. The scenarios the body is preparing for include major terror attacks in the West Bank and inside Israel; Palestinians breaking into West Bank settlements. See also, “Netanyahu Revives Settlement Construction Plan That Critics Say Would Split West Bank” (Ha’aretz) Jerusalem Post Ex-Mossad Chief: Threat from Gaza Worse Now Than During 2014 War The rocket fire which Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad can rain down on Israel today is far greater now than it was in 2014, former Mossad chief Tamir Pardo said on Tuesday. Speaking from an IDC Institute for Policy and Strategy Conference launching a new book by Amos Gilead and Yediot Ahronot diplomatic-political correspondent Shimon Shiffer, Pardo said: “We have failed to come up with an end game for either Gaza or any of the Palestinian chapter.” Since he had explained that the security situation has gotten worse, Pardo said he is disturbed by Israel failing to define its goals and acting as if time was on its side. See also “Threat Gaza poses to Israel growing, ex-spy chief warns” (Israel Hayom) AFP UN Calls for Two State Solution to be Respected in Middle East The UN Security Council made a rare show of unity Monday when it called on all parties to maintain their support for a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestinian conflict. "Council Members reiterated their support for a negotiated two-state solution ... where two democratic states, Israel and Palestine, live side by side in peace within secure and recognized borders," said a statement released by Belgium, which holds the rotating presidency, and supported by all 14 other members, including the United States. "All parties should refrain from undermining the viability of the two states solution in order to maintain the prospects for a just, comprehensive and lasting peace," the statement added. See also, “UNSC issues unanimous statement of support for two-state solution” (JNS) Time of Israel Netanyahu, Ashkenazi Accuse Each Other of Lying, Getting Personal PM Netanyahu sparred Tuesday with the rival Blue and White party’s MK Gabi Ashkenazi, as attention increasingly focused on the former army general, who is being touted as a defense minister in a potential future government headed by Benny Gantz. After Gantz on Monday repeated his pledge to make Ashkenazi defense chief if Blue and White wins next week’s Knesset elections, Netanyahu attacked Ashkenazi over transcripts — currently barred from publication by a court gag order — of the latter’s phone calls with Avichai Mandelblit, now the attorney general, related to the decade-old “Harpaz affair.” Netanyahu’s Likud party has launched a large-scale campaign for the transcripts to be cleared for publication. See also “Netanyahu slams former IDF chief of staff: Apologize to the Druze” (JPost) 2 Ha’aretz Netanyahu Associate Hires Intel Firm to Dig Up Dirt on Gantz The business intelligence firm CGI Group was recently hired by an associate of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to collect incriminating or embarrassing information about Kahol Lavan leader Benny Gantz, an investigation by The Marker revealed. CGI, owned by Zvi Naveh and former Shin Bet security service head and Yesh Atid MK Jacob Perry, was engaged a few weeks ago to obtain documents relating to Kahol Lavan's connection with the Tzur Communications firm, owned by Gantz’s campaign adviser Ronen Tzur. CGI was also asked to check claims that an unidentified person was being employed by the media firm, which could have served the Likud campaign if found to be true, in addition to searching for a copy of the contract between Kahol Lavan and Tzur Communications. See also “ Netanyahu campaign said to hire intel firm that sparred with Blue and White” (TOI) PBS 2020 Candidates Debate Reversing Relocation of U.S. Embassy in Israel Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders says he would study the issue of relocating the American Embassy in Israel to Tel Aviv from Jerusalem but wouldn’t commit to commanding the change. The Vermont senator said during Tuesday night’s debate in Charleston, South Carolina, that he is “very proud of being Jewish” but also pressed that “you cannot ignore the suffering of the Palestinian people.” In 2018, the Trump administration reversed decades of U.S. foreign policy by siding more blatantly with Israel, recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and moving the American Embassy there. President Donald Trump also closed Palestinian diplomatic offices in Washington and cut funding to Palestinian aid programs. The, former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg, said, “You can’t move the embassy back.” Instead, he said, “The answer is to obviously split it up.” See also “Would Sanders, Bloomberg or Warren move the US embassy back to Tel Aviv?” (JPost) Times of Israel Pence, Pompeo to Speak at AIPAC Policy Conference US Vice President Mike Pence and US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo will address the 2020 AIPAC Policy Conference next week, representing the Trump administration, the powerful pro-Israel lobby announced Monday. Both Pence and Pompeo have spoken at the last three policy conferences since joining the administration of US President Donald Trump. Trump himself addressed the gathering in 2016 as a candidate, but has not returned to the annual venue since. While the addition of Pence would appear to rule out an appearance by Trump, who is running for re-election in November, an official with the American Israel Public Affairs Committee did not rule out the president joining the confab. Times of Israel Egypt Declares Three Days of Mourning for Mubarak Former Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak, who ruled for 30 years until he was ousted in a popular uprising against corruption and autocracy, died on Tuesday at the age of 91. Three days of public mourning were declared and state television played clips of Mubarak with a black ribbon at the corner of the screen. He is expected to be buried on Wednesday. He died in intensive care a few weeks after undergoing surgery. Egypt’s presidency and armed forces mourned him as a hero. There was no immediate reaction from Western capitals, which had valued Mubarak for preserving the 1979 peace treaty with Israel signed by his predecessor Anwar al-Sadat. See also “Hosni Mubarak Is Dead, and His Downfall Is His Legacy” (Foreign Policy) 3 Ha’aretz – February 25, 2020 These 50,000 Israelis Can Send Netanyahu Packing Next Week By Anshel Pfeffer, commentator at Ha’aretz • Israelis are returning to vote a week from today. The final result will almost certainly be the same as in last year’s two elections. The parties supporting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will not have a majority in the 23rd Knesset, and the parties opposing him will not be able to create a coalition capable of winning the vote of confidence to approve the proposed government. Virtually every single election poll conducted in the past few months has confirmed this. There is not one poll in which the four parties in Netanyahu’s potential coalition – Likud, Shas, United Torah Judaism and Yamina – have more than 58 seats, leaving them three seats short of the necessary Knesset majority. • Benny Gantz doesn’t need 61 seats to depose Netanyahu and become Israel’s new prime minister within weeks. Since Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu party and the right-wing flank of his own Kahol Lavan party won’t sit in the same coalition as the Joint List, or even in a coalition supported by the Joint List from the outside, Gantz’s likeliest path to governing is if Kahol Lavan, the Labor-Gesher-Meretz alliance and Yisrael Beiteinu win more seats than Netanyahu’s bloc and the Joint List abstains on the vote of confidence (which the predominantly Arab alliance probably will do – even though Kahol Lavan politicians have taken to calling this option “the Jewish majority”). • Gantz’s problem is that he also lacks three seats to make this scenario a reality. The polling averages over the past month have the three parties of Gantz’s notional minority government totaling 51 seats, while Netanyahu’s four-party bloc is averaging 56 seats. Last September, the number of votes needed per seat was 35,917; last April, it was 32,860.
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