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Sustainable Opium Poppy Elimination & Replacement

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Sustainable Opium Poppy Elimination & Replacement SSuussttaaiinnaabbllee OOppiiuumm PPooppppyy EElliimmiinnaattiioonn && RReeppllaacceemmeenntt IInn AAffgghhaanniissttaann 7 November 2007 Cover Graphic: http://img.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2007/07_02/poppiesMS2107_468x313.jpg 2 This page intentionally left blank 3 Executive Summary: What viable poppy elimination and replacement programs are likely to succeed in Afghanistan? Any successful opium poppy replacement program will likely include several integrated programs in the areas of, agriculture, mineral and fuel deposit exploitation, jobs in the construction of infrastructure and industrial manufacturing. It is highly likely that an interconnected set of programs will benefit both the local and national economies. The potential for success of any coordinated program is in direct proportion to the level of interdiction, border security, and prosecution of drug lords and corrupt officials. It is highly unlikely that eradication, the physical destruction of poppy crops, is sufficient for successful elimination of opium and sustainable replacement. One single replacement program, industry or crop is highly unlikely capable of replacing poppy, for the complexities of the situation, geography and culture require a multifaceted and interconnected solution. Key Findings: Eradication What is the current state of opium production in Afghanistan, and has that production increased or decreased over last year? From 2006 to August 2007, Afghanistan produced 8,200 tons of opium, a 34 percent increase. Afghanistan has eradicated opium poppy from 13 of the 34 provinces to date. Approximately ten percent of the total cultivation area was eradicated or replaced, over last year‘s cultivation area. However, favorable weather and rainfall amounts during the 2007 growing season resulted in the overall increase in production. The majority of the cultivation of opium poppy exists in the southern provinces along the Pakistan border. How did Governor Atta succeed in eliminating poppy cultivation in the Balkh Province? Governor Atta provided options to the farmers in the Balkh region. Rather than forcibly eradicating the poppy crop by destroying it physically, farmers received assistance with farming alternative crops. Governor Atta engaged the mullahs in Balkh to encourage the region‘s farmers to be receptive to alternative crops. He arrested and prosecuted corrupt officials in the province who had been profiting from the opium economy. Governor Atta did not have a monumental task in this process, as Balkh is not a traditional poppy region, and the quantities being grown there were small. Has the US Government objected to any of the eradication or elimination methods utilized by provincial authorities? The US government has not objected to any of the methods used by provincial leaders. However, there is mounting pressure to use chemical eradication by some US officials. 4 What method of eradication has the US Government encouraged? Chemical eradication of poppy crops has been heavily encouraged by some sectors of the US Government, as it is seen as an effective method of killing large coca crops in the drug war being waged against the cocaine cartels of South America. However, it is highly likely that chemical spraying in Afghanistan would result in a significant rise in negative propaganda by the Taliban and al Qaeda elements in the country. It is highly likely that all crop failures, births of malformed children or livestock, or mysterious deaths would be presented as results of intentional poisoning by the US and Karzai Governments. Security What actions by the Afghan and Coalition governments are likely to improve the security in Afghanistan? It is highly likely that increased military prosecution of drug lords, traffickers and Taliban elements engaged in opium trafficking and refining will reduce the pressure on farmers to grow poppies. This activity will likely positively affect the development of agriculture, mining and industry by significantly increasing physical security, and improving confidence in the alternative programs to be introduced. What is the role the of the US military in the counter-narcotics strategy? US military Rules Of Engagement allow for intelligence sharing, logistical as well as lift support, and the deployment of a Quick Reaction Force (QRF) to assist eradicators, should hostile forces attack them. With opium traffickers exploiting areas of insecurity in Afghanistan, it is likely that continued application of force is necessary to remove those who encourage its cultivation and benefit from the infrastructural improvements being proposed. What limitations apply to NATO forces in the counter-narcotics efforts in Afghanistan? There are approximately 35,000 NATO led forces conducting stability and security operations in Afghanistan. However, those forces are not being utilized to full capacity. Many of the representative countries imposed operational restrictions upon there forces leaving a few select countries with the burden of actively engaging the enemy. Agriculture What agricultural crops are likely to be successfully cultivated in Afghanistan? The Northern Plateau of Afghanistan covers about 40,000 square miles of extremely fertile foothills and plains. Orchards of walnuts, apricots, prunes, almonds, pomegranates, mulberries, apples and pistachios all thrive in this region. Grape vineyards, cotton, wheat and melons historically have done well here. Cashmere goats and sheep are easily supported, and provide a renewable fiber crop. The Southern 5 Plateau region covers about 50,000 square miles, and consists of high plateaus and sandy deserts. The soil here is infertile, except along the rivers in the southwest, which feed traditional irrigation systems. The dry, yet mild climate in the irrigated areas of the Southern Plateau supports the cultivation of wheat, grapes, orchards of tree crops, and livestock. Flax is grown as an oil seed crop, however its potential for linen production is likely to create secondary and tertiary sources of economic gain from the same crop, if exploited. Which crops are likely to be successful cash crops, and provide sufficient monetary incentive sustainable to replace poppy cultivation? With the development of export to international markets, saffron, pomegranates, grapes (as raisins and juice), wool, cotton, cashmere, walnuts, almonds and flax are likely to provide the farmer between 1200 and 3500 USD per crop, per hectare, per year. Saffron crocuses are currently cultivated in limited quantity in Afghanistan, and as the single most expensive spice currently in existence has enormous potential for cultivation and export. It is grown from June to October, and it is likely to be an excellent rotational crop with other crops that are grown on the same ground during the alternate seasons. As cropping intensity and climate allow for 2-3 crops per year on the same ground, the potential exists for efficiency and profit for the Afghan farmer. The production of export products from these crops is likely to provide off-farm employment as well, doubling the economic gain potential for several of the crops. Which crops are likely to provide for Afghanistan’s food needs? Historically, cereal grains, predominantly wheat and to a lesser degree barley, maize and rice, are the major staple crops in Afghanistan. An increase in animal husbandry, specifically sheep and goats for wool and cashmere, proportionally will increase meat for domestic consumption as well. Mining Natural Resources What mineral or fuel resources are known to exist in Afghanistan and which are likely to be commercially desirable commodities? Iron, copper, coal, gas and oil resources exist in large deposits in Afghanistan. Though smaller in size, exploitable deposits of bauxite, tin, gypsum, tungsten, zinc and lead have been identified by the United States Geological Survey. Do any of the mineral or fuel resources coincide in location with poppy cultivating areas of Afghanistan? The United States Geological Survey identified deposits of copper, mercury, tungsten, limestone, gold, fluorite, tin, calcite and possibly uranium in Afghanistan‘s main poppy growing region which includes the provinces of Farah, Helmand, Kandahar, Nimroz, Urzugan and Zabul. The largest mineral and fuel deposits, including the Aynak copper 6 deposit and the Hajigak iron ore deposit, are located in northern Afghanistan and are distinctly separate from major poppy cultivating regions. Which mineral or fuel deposits are likely to provide sufficient monetary incentive to replace poppy cultivation if commercially exploited? The Aynak copper deposit is estimated to be worth between USD 100-300 million annually if a mine is fully developed. It is likely that commercial mining operations would employ large numbers of Afghans, including a projected 60,000 in jobs indirectly created by a mine at Aynak. Industry What is the cultural inclination of the Afghan population toward agriculture, mining and industry, and is there any cultural resistance to change? Former Minister of the Interior Ali Jalali confirmed that Afghans are not culturally opposed to any type of work. The large farming population is due to 80 percent of the Afghan population living in rural areas. It is highly likely that if presented with local manufacturing or industrial jobs, located in rural areas for proximity to raw materials supplies, Afghans would accept them. According to Minister Jalali, Afghans are willing to engage in any enterprise which will provide for their families‘ livelihoods and security.
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