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New Deal for Communities National Evaluation Phase 2 New Deal for Communities national evaluation phase 2 Technical report This research was commissioned by the previous government and is not necessarily a reflection of the current government’s policies and priorities. DCLG is publishing this report in the interests of transparency. March 2015 Centre for Regional Economic and Social Research Department for Communities and Local Government © Queen’s Printer and Controller of Her Majesty’s Stationery Office, 2015 Copyright in the typographical arrangement rests with the Crown. You may re-use this information (not including logos) free of charge in any format or medium, under the terms of the Open Government Licence. To view this licence, visitis http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open- government-licence/version/3/ or write to the Information Policy Team, The National Archives, Kew, London TW9 4DU, or e-mail: [email protected]. This document/publication is also available on our website at www.gov.uk/dclg Any enquiries regarding this document/publication should be sent to us at: Department for Communities and Local Government Fry Building 2 Marsham Street London SW1P 4DF Telephone: 030 3444 0000 For all our latest news and updates follow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/CommunitiesUK March 2015 ISBN: 978-1-4098-3161-7 Acknowledgements We would like to thank all of members of the evaluation team involved in the 2005- 2010 second phase of the national evaluation. Thanks are especially due to the following: Peter Tyler and Angela Brennan at Cambridge Economic Associates; Richard Meegan and Hilary Russell in the European Institute for Urban Affairs at Liverpool John Moores University; Geoff Fordham, Rachel Knight-Fordham, Beverley Cook at Geoff Fordham Associates; Rachel Williams and Hayley Mueller at Ipsos MORI; Crispian Fuller previously at the Local Government Centre in the University of Warwick; David McLennan, Mike Noble, Kate Wilkinson and Adam Whitworth in the Social Disadvantage Research Centre at the University of Oxford; Carol Hayden at Shared Intelligence; Robert Turner and Scott Dickinson at SQW; and in our own Centre for Regional Economic and Social Research: Rose Ardron, Elaine Batty, Christina Beatty, Ian Cole, Richard Crisp, Mike Grimsley , David Robinson, Louise South, Sarah Ward, and Peter Wells. In addition thanks are also due to those in Communities and Local Government and its predecessor departments who helped guide and inform this evaluation for almost a decade including more recently Penny Withers and Demelza Birch and before them, Lucy Dillon, Kirby Swales and David Riley. Above all thanks are due to the many hundreds of people living in NDC areas or working for NDC Partnerships or their partner agencies who generously and unfailingly gave their time and commitment to this evaluation. Without them this evaluation would not have been possible. 1 Preface The New Deal for Communities (NDC) Evaluation Technical Report accompanies a series of seven volumes of the New Deal for Communities Evaluation Final Report which detail the findings from the National Evaluation of the New Deal for Communities 2001-20101. Each volume addresses particular themes emerging from the evaluation: Volume 1, 'The New Deal for Communities Programme: Achieving a neighbourhood focus for regeneration' explores the institutional model underpinning the Programme, based on the creation of semi-autonomous Partnerships, designed to achieve ten year transformational strategies working in co-operation with existing delivery agencies such as the police and Primary Care Trusts (PCTs) Volume 2, 'Involving local people in regeneration: Evidence from the New Deal for Communities Programme', examines the rationale, operation and consequences of the Programme's aim of placing the community 'at its heart' volume 3, 'Making deprived areas better places to live: Evidence from the New Deal for Communities Programme' considers the nature, operation and successes of NDC interventions designed to improve the 39 NDC areas Volume 4, 'Improving outcomes for people in deprived neighbourhoods: Evidence from the New Deal for Communities Programme' considers the nature, operation and successes of NDC interventions designed to improve outcomes for residents living in the 39 NDC areas Volume 5 'Exploring and explaining change in regeneration schemes: Evidence from the New Deal for Communities Programme' indentifies factors which help explain why some areas, and some individuals, have seen better outcomes than others Volume 6 'The New Deal for Communities Programme: Assessing impact and VFM' uses all the evidence available to the evaluation in order to identify the impact of, and cost and benefits arising from, the NDC Programme Volume 7, 'The NDC experience: A final assessment' considers the degree to which the Programme has achieved its original objectives and sets out the implications of this evidence for policy. This Technical Report provides a wide range of supporting evidence including details of the design of the NDC Programme and the national evaluation, data sources, statistical methods, analytical tools and outputs from analyses undertaken. 1 All NDC evaluation reports can be accessed at: http://extra.shu.ac.uk/ndc/ndc_reports.htm 2 Abbreviations used in NDC reports ABI Area-Based Initiative APS Annual Population Survey BCS British Crime Survey CLG Communities and Local Government CEA Cambridge Economic Associates CRESR Centre for Regional Economic and Social Research DWP Department for Work and Pensions GOR Government Office in the Regions ESA Employment and Support Allowance ESOL English for Speakers of Other Languages HPE Housing and the Physical Environment HSE Health Survey for England IB Incapacity Benefit IBCO Incapacity Benefits Credits Only ILM Intermediate Labour Market IMD Index of Multiple Deprivation JSA Jobseeker's Allowance LAA Local Area Agreement LFS Labour Force Survey LSC Learning and Skills Council LSOA Lower Super Output Area LSP Local Strategic Partnership NDC New Deal for Communities NOMIS National On-Line Manpower Information System (Durham University) NRU Neighbourhood Renewal Unit NVQ National Vocational Qualification ODPM Office of the Deputy Prime Minister ONS Office for National Statistics PLASC Pupil Level Annual Schools Census SDA Severe Disablement Allowance SDRC Social Disadvantage Research Centre SEH Survey of English Housing SRB Single Regeneration Budget VFM Value for Money WPLS Work and Pensions Longitudinal Study 3 Contents 1. The New Deal for Communities Programme ............................................... 6 1.1. Overview .............................................................................................. 6 1.2. Round 1 and Round 2 NDC Partnerships ............................................ 7 1.3. Location of the 39 NDC areas .............................................................. 9 1.4. Pen portraits and key characteristics of NDC Areas........................... 10 2. The Design of the NDC Evaluation............................................................. 26 2.1. An Overview: Theory of Change and Evaluation Objectives .............. 26 2.2. Assessing ABIs: conceptual considerations ....................................... 28 2.3. Research Design................................................................................ 28 2.4. Strengths and weaknesses in the overall design................................ 30 2.5. Alternative approaches: design; valuation; and selection of comparator areas .................................................................................................. 33 2.6. Phasing .............................................................................................. 35 2.7. Consortium members ......................................................................... 39 2.8. Dissemination and Learning............................................................... 40 3. Comparator Areas ....................................................................................... 42 3.1. Overview ............................................................................................ 42 3.2. Household survey comparator areas.................................................. 42 3.3. Secondary and admin comparator areas ........................................... 44 4. Data sources ................................................................................................ 47 4.1. NDC Household Survey, 2002-2008 .................................................. 47 4.2. Secondary and administrative data sources....................................... 57 4.3. NDC Partnership Survey .................................................................... 65 4.4. NDC Business Survey........................................................................ 66 4.5. NDC Beneficiaries Survey.................................................................. 66 4.6. NDC Resident Board Member Survey................................................ 67 4.7. System K expenditure and project data.............................................. 68 4.8. Census data ....................................................................................... 70 4.9. National benchmark data ................................................................... 71 4.10. NDC Movers survey ........................................................................... 73 4 5. 36 Core Indicators ....................................................................................... 75 6. Composite Index of Relative Change (CIRC):
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