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New Deal for Communities: a Synthesis of New Programme-Wide Evidence 2006-07

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New Deal for Communities: a Synthesis of New Programme-Wide Evidence 2006-07 New Deal for Communities: A Synthesis of New Programme-Wide Evidence 2006-07... Page 1 of 6 LGIU Local Government Information Unit Independent Intelligent Information New Deal for Communities: A Synthesis of New Programme-Wide Evidence 2006-07 (LGIUandSTEER) 26/2/2008 Author: Andrew Jones Reference No: PB 1740/08L This covers: England Overview The New Deal for Communities (NDC) Programme was launched in 1998 with the aim of reducing the gap between 39 deprived neighbourhoods and the rest of the country. In these 39 areas, each on average accommodating about 9,800 people, local NDC partnerships are implementing approved 10 year delivery plans. Each delivery plan has attracted approximately £50m of government funding. The programme is meant to close the gap between the 39 areas and the rest of the country in relation to a range of outcome areas. This is the first report of the evaluation of phase 2 of the programme. The most recent data collected is used to answer three questions: z what changes have occurred in NDC areas? z how have NDC areas performed in comparison with change occurring nationally, locally, and in other deprived neighbourhoods? z what is the most effective way to deliver longer term renewal? The report concludes that NDC partnerships are now working effectively and that NDC areas are improving across a range of indicators. Further, NDC interventions have generated benefits for surrounding areas - there has been a 'positive halo' effect in the areas surrounding NDCs. The most important lesson is that persistence pays: it takes time to engage all agencies fully, and for spending to show impacts. The more intractable problems take longer to solve, and hence programme managers should be prepared for diminishing returns over time. Staff retention, particularly of senior staff, is crucial to stability and commitment over the longer term. Briefing in full Background The New Deal for Communities (NDC) Programme was launched in 1998 with the aim of reducing the gap between 39 deprived neighbourhoods and the rest of the country. In these 39 areas, each on average accommodating about 9,800 people, local NDC partnerships are implementing approved 10 year delivery plans. Each delivery plan has attracted approximately £50m of government funding. http://www.lgiu.gov.uk/briefing-detail.jsp?&id=1740&md=0&section=briefing 29/02/2008 New Deal for Communities: A Synthesis of New Programme-Wide Evidence 2006-07... Page 2 of 6 The programme is meant to close the gap between the 39 areas and the rest of the country in relation to a range of outcome areas including: z crime z education z health z worklessness z housing z environment and liveability. In 2001 a consortium led by the Centre for Regional Economic and Social Research (CRESR) at Sheffield Hallam University was commissioned to undertake the evaluation of the 2001-05 phase of the programme. Summaries of the 2005 interim evaluation report and other associated reports, together with links to the original documents, can be accessed via Related Briefings. CRESR has been commissioned to undertake the evaluation of phase 2 of the programme. Key elements of the evaluation methodology include: z a household survey conducted in 2002 and 2006 z analysis of administrative data including that for benefits, school pupil attainment, crime, house prices, and worklessness z case studies of selected NDC areas z a postal survey of NDC staff z costs-benefit and cost-effectiveness analysis of programme financial and performance data. In this report, the most recent data collected is used to answer three questions: z what changes have occurred in NDC areas? z how have NDC areas performed in comparison with change occurring nationally, locally, and in other deprived neighbourhoods? z what is the most effective way to deliver longer term renewal? How NDC Areas Have Changed The early problems of some NDC partnerships – some characterised by instability and difficult relationships – have mostly disappeared. The Programme is mostly perceived as mature, focused and professionally delivered. This positive assessment is based on five premises:- z they have become more focused on delivering local programmes to address local issues z they have become more strategic in their outlook z they have learnt to work more effectively with other agencies z they have become beacons of experience in relation to community engagement z they have enlarged the boundaries of neighbourhood-level renewal. Perhaps because this is a 10-year programme, partnerships have had more time to influence what is happening locally and to consider how their activities might be sustained once NDC funding comes to an end. Some partnerships have created longer term rental streams from physical assets, new modes of governance for a ‘post NDC world’, or sustainable partnerships with mainstream agencies. There is evidence that some have developed much closer links with LSP and LAA funding steams. http://www.lgiu.gov.uk/briefing-detail.jsp?&id=1740&md=0&section=briefing 29/02/2008 New Deal for Communities: A Synthesis of New Programme-Wide Evidence 2006-07... Page 3 of 6 In addition to better partnership working, there is evidence that other improvements have occurred in NDC areas. Of the 36 core indicators drawn from the household surveys and administrative data, 32 showed positive improvement. Particularly large improvements were recorded in perceptions of recent improvement in the areas, fear of crime, Key Stage 4 attainment, and satisfaction with the area as a place to live. There have been slower improvements in relationship to worklessness and health. There has been little change in relation to qualifications and training, despite good progress in Key stages 2,3,and 4. Of the indicators moving in a negative direction, only one - the number receiving means tested benefits - was by more than one percentage point. it is thought that this more likely to reflect benefit take-up campaigns that changes in local demographics. There has been no reduction in the proportion of people wanting to move away from their place of residence, although within the numbers of those saying they want to move within two years,there has been a marked increase in those saying they want to move to within fifteen minutes walk of their current home. However, most of the positive changes occurred in the earlier stages of the programme. This may be because: z the rapid positive effects effects arising from 'quick wins' implemented by NDCs in their earlier years have diminished through time z outcomes associated with long-term projects will take longer to become apparent z some indicators are close to national averages, and hence there may be little capacity for more rapid improvement. A distinction is drawn between people-based and place-based outcomes. People based outcomes relate to individual or household circumstances, as measured by indicators for educational attainment, employment status, or personal health. Place-based outcomes refer to changes in the NDC area overall, such as those measured by changes in views on the attractiveness of the area captured in household surveys. There are more obvious signs of positive change in 'place-based' outcomes than in 'people based' outcomes. This could be because:- z 'people-based' outcomes may improve the material circumstances of individuals, thus enabling them to move out of an area - hence such improvements will not show up in monitoring data z 'people-based' outcomes are harder to identify with certainty, because they affect fewer people than 'place-based' outcomes. z some 'people-based' initiatives may take several years to have an effect. How NDC Areas Have Changed Relative to Other Areas Comparisons with four other spatial scales were examined: z the national level (for 22 indicators) z the host local authority district (12 indicators) z NDCs and similarly deprived comparator neighbourhoods (31 indicators) z clusters and NDCs against comparator neighbourhoods. For six indicators change in NDC areas was at least 3 percentage points higher than nationally. The best improvements in comparison with national averages were those relating to 'place-based' outcomes, although the proportion of local schoolchildren achieving 5 or more GCSEs at A-C was 6 percentage points higher than the national http://www.lgiu.gov.uk/briefing-detail.jsp?&id=1740&md=0&section=briefing 29/02/2008 New Deal for Communities: A Synthesis of New Programme-Wide Evidence 2006-07... Page 4 of 6 average in NDC areas. For 13 indicators, change across NDC areas is similar or slightly higher than the national average. It is concluded that in most indicators the gap is not widening between NDC areas and the national average. The evidence supplied by the 12 indicators used to compare changes in NDC areas with their host local authority areas suggests that gaps are neither widening nor closing. For these indicators, it is hard to attribute the reason for changes to either local authority or NDC interventions. In broad terms, rates of change are similar in NDC areas and comparator areas, although there are no indicators in which comparator areas substantially outperform NDC areas. NDC areas do marginally better in some indicators and in a few substantially outperform comparator indicators, notably in 'place-based' indicators and in crime. The reasons for NDC areas improving at only a slightly higher rate than comparator areas could include: z comparator areas have benefited from other regeneration funding, including SRB, EU Structural Funds, Housing
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