Secession and Security a volume in the series Cornell Studies in Security Affairs Edited by Robert J. Art, Robert Jervis, and Stephen M. Walt A list of titles in this series is available at cornellpress.cornell.edu. Secession and Security Explaining State Strategy against Separatists Ahsan I. Butt Cornell University Press Ithaca and London Cornell University Press gratefully acknowledges receipt of a subvention from the Schar School of Policy and Government, George Mason University, which aided in the publication of this book. Copyright © 2017 by Cornell University All rights reserved. Except for brief quotations in a review, this book, or parts thereof, must not be reproduced in any form without permission in writing from the publisher. For information, address Cornell University Press, Sage House, 512 East State Street, Ithaca, New York 14850. First published 2017 by Cornell University Press Printed in the United States of America Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Names: Butt, Ahsan I., 1983– author. Title: Secession and security : explaining state strategy against separatists / Ahsan I. Butt. Description: Ithaca : Cornell University Press, 2017. | Series: Cornell studies in security affairs | Includes bibliographical references and index. Identifi ers: LCCN 2017007187 (print) | LCCN 2017011382 (ebook) | ISBN 9781501713965 (epub/mobi) | ISBN 9781501713958 (pdf) | ISBN 9781501713941 (cloth : alk. paper) Subjects: LCSH: Separatist movements—Case studies. | Secession— Case studies. | Internal security—Case studies. Classifi cation: LCC JC327 (ebook) | LCC JC327 .B87 2017 (print) | DDC 320.1/5—dc23 LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2017007187 Cornell University Press strives to use environmentally responsible suppliers and materials to the fullest extent possible in the publishing of its books. Such materials include vegetable-based, low-VOC inks and acid-free papers that are recycled, totally chlorine-free, or partly composed of nonwood fi bers. For further information, visit our website at cornellpress.cornell.edu. Cover: Refugees board buses for India, Bangladesh, 1971. Photo © Raghu Rai/Magnum Photos. Contents List of Illustrations vii Acknowledgments ix Introduction: Ins and Outs of Separatist War 1 1. An External Security Theory of Secessionist Confl ict 17 2. Pakistan’s Genocide in Bengal and Limited War in Balochistan, 1971–1977 42 3. India’s Strategies against Separatism in Assam, Punjab, and Kashmir, 1984–1994 83 4. The Ottoman Empire’s Escalation from Reforms to the Armenian Genocide, 1908–1915 125 5. Peaceful and Violent Separatism in North America, Europe, and the Middle East, 1861–1993 163 Conclusion: Security and Separatism in the Contemporary World 214 Notes 225 References 265 Index 285 v Illustrations Tables 1. Explaining case selection 15 2. Probability of future war 32 Figures 1. State decision-making when confronted by separatists 40 2. Variation in Pakistan’s responses to secessionism in the 1970s 45 3. Variation in India’s responses to secessionism in the 1980s 86 4. Variation in the Ottoman Empire’s treatment of Armenians, 1908–15 129 5. Variation in state response to secessionism in the Middle East, Europe, and North America, 1861–1993 165 Maps 1. Separatism in South Asia 43 2. The Armenian provinces 126 vii Acknowledgments It may not look like it, but I have had a lot of help writing this book. In January 2009, I sat with two friends, Rose Kelanic and Lindsey O’Rourke, at the University of Chicago’s business school cafeteria to discuss my ideas. I knew I wanted to focus on why states are so reluctant to cede territory to separatists, and I knew existing research was not satisfactory, but that was about all I knew. The prospect of outlining even a question, let alone an answer, was daunting. Over panini and chips, Lindsey piped up and said (something to the effect of): “Why don’t you focus on how state repression is caused by the external threat of the movement?” Why don’t I, indeed. The eight years since have been devoted to sorting out how, why, and the extent to which state strategies against separatist movements are tied to security concerns. In those eight years, I have been fortunate to receive gen- erous support from the Mellon Foundation, the American Council of Learned Societies, the United States Institute of Peace (USIP), and the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at the Harvard Kennedy School. It is diffi cult to write without adequate fi nancial support, and these institu- tions ensured I had it. While money was important, the people who helped me write this book were more so. At Chicago, I was fortunate to fi nd people who challenged, cajoled, intimidated, and inspired me. John Mearsheimer was the father fi gure I could never satisfy (not alone there—just ask any Chicago student from the past thirty years), Paul Staniland the older cousin whom I wanted to emulate (good luck with that), and Duncan Snidal the friendly uncle from Canada (unsolicited advice for graduate students: have at least one good cop on your committee). I will never be able to repay their attention to me and my work, from reading chapters to socializing me in the ways of ix ACKNOWLEDGMENTS academia, from providing guidance to putting the fear of god—or the job market—in me. I do hope, however, that a copy of this book suffi ces as a token. I was also lucky to be surrounded by brilliant and generous students at Chicago. Whether it was reading a draft before a workshop presentation, or drowning shame and humiliation at Jimmy’s after such a presentation, I consider myself fortunate that my time at Chicago overlapped with Adam Dean, Gene Gerzhoy, Eric Hundman, Burak Kadercan, Morgan Kaplan, Rose Kelanic, Adam Levine-Weinberg, Chad Levinson, Sarah Parkinson, Negeen Pegahi, and Lindsey O’Rourke. They were great colleagues but even better friends. Finally, Kathy Anderson was a pillar not just for me but for all graduate students in the department—a source of information, guid- ance, strategy, and warmth. Two separate sojourns at the Harvard Kennedy School, one in 2011–12 and another in 2014–15, helped me complete this book manuscript. At Har- vard, I received valuable mentorship from Sean Lynn-Jones, Martin Malin, Steve Miller, and Stephen Walt, while Susan Lynch taught me the true meaning of administrative effi ciency. I was also surrounded by some of the best and brightest in IR and security studies. I especially learned from, and enjoyed the company of, Aisha Ahmad, Michael Beckley, Sarah Bush, Jen- nifer Dixon, Trevor Findlay, Kelly Greenhill, Jennifer Keister, Peter Krause, Josh Shrifi nson, and Melissa Willard-Foster. Since arriving at George Mason University in 2012, I have received tre- mendous support from leaders in my academic unit, whether it was Pris- cilla Regan at the erstwhile Department of Public and International Affairs, or Ming Wan and Mark Rozell at the Schar School of Policy and Govern- ment. Each of them has done everything possible to help me conduct and disseminate research. My GMU colleagues such as Colin Dueck, Mike Hun- zeker, Mark Katz, Greg Koblentz, and Ed Rhodes in IR, or Bassam Haddad, Mariely Lopez-Santana, Peter Mandaville, Eric McGlinchey, Robert McGrath, Matt Scherer, and Jennifer Victor from the school at large, have helped create a fi rst-rate research environment and made me feel at home. I have also been fortunate to have the likes of Janice Cohen and other staff ensure that I am never too confused about administrative procedures. Aside from those at Chicago, Harvard, and George Mason, several friends and colleagues kindly read drafts of chapters, offered critiques, and pointed ways forward. I am grateful for the time and attention of Christo- pher Clary, Arman Grigoryan, Umair Javed, Shashank Joshi, Sameer Lal- wani, Janet Lewis, Farooq Nomani, Paul Poast, Shahid Saeed, and Niloufer Siddiqui. I owe an especially weighty debt to Robert Art, Kathleen Cun- ningham, Harris Mylonas, and Manny Teitelbaum, who attended my book workshop in the fall of 2014 and set me on the track I needed to be on; their fi ngerprints, I hope they can see, are all over this book. Audiences at the annual meetings of the American Political Science Association, the Interna- x ACKNOWLEDGMENTS tional Studies Association, and the Midwest Political Science Association, as well as seminars at Chicago, Harvard, Lehigh, MIT, Tufts, and USIP, played a crucial role in hammering my ideas into shape. Research for this book led me to talk to and learn from many people, not just scholars in my fi eld. I cannot possibly list each of my interviewees here, not least because some spoke off the record, but I want to underline how crucial each one of those conversations was, and how immensely grateful I am to all the journalists, analysts, students, academics, artists, politicians, party workers, ex-cops, ex-soldiers, bureaucrats, businessmen, diplomats, negotiators, and activists who made time to talk to me. Having my world- view and scholarship shaped by those infi nitely more knowledgeable was one of the most rewarding experiences of writing this book. Alongside these interviews, my archival work in the periodicals room at the Library of Congress in Washington, DC, as well as the National Archives in College Park, Maryland, could not have been possible without the patience and kindness of the staff. I never felt more like a scholar than when I was at the LOC or the archives. Transforming this book from an imperfect submission to a less-imperfect publication was entirely down to the tireless efforts of the reviewers and editors at Cornell University Press. I am especially grateful to the anony- mous reviewers whose incisive and careful criticisms helped me deliver a signifi cantly better scholarly product. I also consider myself very fortunate to have had the opportunity to work with Roger Haydon and experience fi rsthand his patience, aid, and responsiveness, while Karen Hwa’s edito- rial attention left me both deeply impressed and soundly confi dent that my work was in good hands.