Paying a Visit: The ‘Dalai Lama Effect’ on International Trade Andreas FUCHS 1 and Nils-Hendrik KLANN 2 University of Goettingen Preliminary draft (Please do not cite without permission) This version: July 16, 2010 Abstract This article investigates the extent to which the state of bilateral relations has an impact on exports to China. China frequently threatens that meetings between its trading partners’ officials and the Dalai Lama will be met with animosity and lead to a subsequent deterioration in the state of their trade relationships. We run a gravity model of exports to China from 159 partner countries between 1991 and 2008 to test whether countries officially receiving the Dalai Lama are economically punished by the Chinese through trade reductions. In order to account for the potential endogeneity of meetings with the Dalai Lama, the number of Tibet Support Groups and the travel pattern of the Buddhist leader are used as instruments. Our results indicate that China punishes countries that receive the Dalai Lama at the highest political level. However, this ‘Dalai Lama Effect’ is only observed for the Hu Jintao era and not for earlier periods. Furthermore, we find that this effect disappears two years after a meeting took place. Keywords: International Trade, International Political Economy, Diplomatic Relations, Exports to China, Tibet, Dalai Lama JEL codes: F13, F51, F59 1 Faculty of Economic Sciences, Platz der Goettinger Sieben 3, D-37073 Goettingen, Germany, E-Mail:
[email protected] 2 Faculty of Economic Sciences, Platz der Goettinger Sieben 3, D-37073 Goettingen, Germany, E-Mail: hhk@uni- goettingen.de 1 “We will take corresponding measures to make the relevant countries realise their mistakes.” Zhu Weiqun, executive deputy head of the Communist party's United Front Work Department "There is a Tibetan saying: some wounds in the mouth recover by themselves." Tendzin Gyatsho, 14 th Dalai Lama 1.