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Zambia Country Analysis Summary Refer to This Publication As: Zambia Country Analysis (2015)

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Zambia Country Analysis Summary Refer to This Publication As: Zambia Country Analysis (2015) Zambia Country Analysis Summary Refer to this publication as: Zambia Country Analysis (2015). This is a summary of a country analysis prepared by an independent consultant for the United Nations Country Team in Zambia. Copyright: United Nations Country Team, Zambia Contact for further detail: UN Resident Coordinator’s Office, Zambia Zambia Country Analysis Summary CONTENTS Acronyms 05 Boxes Leaving no one behind 15 Progress towards middle-income Zambia comes with addressing inequality, strengthening social protection and reducing vulnerabilities 17 Where some are more equal than others… 22 Chapter I Introduction 09 Chapter II Background 13 Overview 13 Economic Performance 13 Human Development Challenge 13 Poverty Reduction Policies and Strategies 14 Inequality and Vulnerability 14 Causes of Vulnerabilities 15 Employment 16 Nutrition and Food Security 18 Mortality and Morbidity 19 Education 19 Water and Sanitation 20 Environmental Sustainability 20 Peace and Security 23 Migration and Refugees 23 Governance 25 Chapter III Key Priorities for Ensuring Equity in Zambia 31 Chapter IV Comparative Advantages of the United Nations in Zambia 35 Chapter V Way Forward 39 ACRONYMS CA Country analysis Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/ UNAIDS AIDS Common Market for Eastern and COMESA Southern Africa United Nations Capital Development UNCDF Fund FAO Food and Agriculture Organization UNCT United Nations Country Team FNDP Fifth National Development Plan United Nations Conference on Trade and UNCTAD GDP Gross domestic product Development GRZ Government of the Republic of Zambia United Nations Development Assistance UNDAF Framework HIV Human immunodeficiency virus UNDP United Nations Development Programme IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency United Nations Economic Commission International Fund for Agricultural UNECA IFAD for Africa Development UNEP United Nations Environment Programme ILO International Labour Organization United Nations Educational Scientific and UNESCO ILUA Integrated Land Use Assessment Cultural Organization IMF International Monetary Fund UNFPA United Nations Population Fund IOM International Organization for Migration UN- United Nations Human Settlements Habitat Programme Living Conditions Monitoring Survey LCMS Report United Nations High Commissioner for UNHCR Refugees LMIC Lower middle-income country UNIC United Nations Information Centre MDGs Millennium Development Goals UNICEF United Nations Children’s Fund NRAs UN non-resident agencies United Nations Industrial Development Office of the High Commissioner for UNIDO OHCHR Organization Human Rights United Nations Office on Drugs and UNODC R-SNDP Revised Sixth National Development Plan Crime Southern African Development SADC UNV United Nations Volunteers Community WFP World Food Programme SCT Social cash transfers WHO World Health Organization SDGs Sustainable Development Goals WMA World Meteorological Organization SNDP Sixth National Development Plan ZDHS Zambia Demographic and Health Survey UN United Nations 5 CHAPTER I 4 INTRODUCTION The Country Analysis (CA) for Zambia provides decision makers, partners and other stakeholders the analytical base for the next Zambia-United on the current socioeconomic situation in the Nations Sustainable Development Partnership country, the causes of inequality and inequities, Framework, which will replace the current United and the status of the environment and natural Nations Development Assistance Framework resources, as the basis for identifying priority (UNDAF) in 2016. The CA has been jointly areas for UN support. The CA will also inform produced by the Government of the Republic of policy dialogue around emerging issues and Zambia (GRZ) and the United Nations Country support the United Nations to leverage strategic Team (UNCT) in order to ensure alignment of UN partnerships and resources for Zambia’s national efforts with national priorities and internationally development aspirations. agreed goals, in particular the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), which will replace The CA particularly identifies patterns of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) from inequalities and discrimination/exclusion. It 2016. The CA will also contribute to preparation describes the situation of groups excluded, of the Seventh National Development Plan. marginalised and/or otherwise facing vulnerabilities and discrimination, as well The CA will guide the UNCT on the key as impacts of environmental degradation development challenges that the United Nations and climate change. The CA also focuses on in Zambia will address, and ensure that the unfinished business, with respect to Zambia’s needs of vulnerable and marginalised groups are MDG targets and other internationally agreed addressed. This will improve the understanding of development goals and treaty obligations. 9 CHAPTER II 10 BACKGROUND Overview agriculture, forestry and fisheries at 9.9 per cent; Zambia is a landlocked country located on the and manufacturing at 7.9 per cent8. central plateau of the southern African region, with a land area of 752,612 square kilometres and Economic growth has been concentrated in a fast-growing population of over 15 million1. capital-intensive industries such as construction, Zambia is one of the most urbanised countries mining and transport. Growth has taken place in sub-Saharan Africa, with about 40 per cent2 of in urban areas, while the poorest tend to live its inhabitants living in urban areas. The number in remote areas that are barely connected to of people in urban areas rose from 3.5 million markets and the cash economy. Economic growth in 2000 to 5.1 million in 20103. Migration has has not been labour intensive, particularly in always played a central role in the history of those sectors in which the poor tend to work Zambia. The movement of people into, out of and (subsistence agriculture and the informal sector). inside Zambia is a crucial element of the social fabric for all Zambians. This mobility is primarily Zambia is blessed with abundant natural responsible for the diverse cultural heritage resources, but economic diversification is still enjoyed by Zambia today. a key development challenge. The majority of people in rural areas and even some urban With a per capita gross domestic product (GDP) areas rely on agriculture as the main source of of around US$ 1,7004, Zambia is now a lower livelihood. Agriculture is, therefore, the sector middle-income country (LMIC) with consistent with the most potential for driving broad-based and robust economic growth. It has progressed and inclusive economic growth, followed possibly to the medium human development category5. by trade within both the Southern African Large portions of the population, however, have Development Community (SADC) and Common not shared in the overall improvement of national Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) prosperity. trading blocs. Economic Performance Human Development Challenges Zambia’s economy has relied heavily on copper Despite impressive performance in economic mining, which accounts for over 70 per cent of growth and global economic competitiveness, export earnings, but employs less than 2 per Zambia’s indicators in terms of human cent of the population6. The majority of people development have been disappointing. In SADC, in Zambia (60 per cent) live in rural areas, where Zambia is among the top five performers in they depend on subsistence agriculture for their business competitiveness, but it is one of the livelihoods. GDP growth averaged 6 per cent for five worst performers on human development the period 2006-2013, while inflation declined indicators, along with the Democratic Republic from 26 per cent towards the end of 1996 to less of Congo, Malawi, Mozambique and Zimbabwe. than 8 per cent in 20147. GDP contribution by Despite the growth in GDP, poverty levels remain sector reflects the country’s LMIC status, with stubbornly high. The poverty headcount declined wholesale and retail trade contributing 18.4 from 62.8 per cent in 2006 to 60.5 per cent9 in per cent, followed by mining and quarrying 2010 with almost no change in the proportion at 12.9 per cent; construction at 10.9 per cent; of people living in extreme poverty. Zambia 1. World Economic Database 2014 (estimate), IMF. 6. 2012 Labour Force Survey. 2. Zambia Demographic and Health Survey 2013-2014. 7. World Economic Database 2014, IMF. 3. UN-Habitat 2013. 8. Central Statistical Office, GDP 2010 benchmark estimates. 4. World Economic Database 2014 (estimate). 9. Living Conditions Monitoring Survey (LCMS) 2006 and 2010. 5. Global Human Development Report, Human Development Index 2014, UNDP. 13 will not achieve the MDG 1 target of halving poor children live in rural areas.12 poverty by 2015. A similar situation is found in other countries of the region with a heavy Poverty Reduction Policies and Strategies dependency on extractive industries, including Zambia’s policies, strategies and programmes for Angola (petroleum), and Botswana and Namibia poverty reduction have been articulated in the (mining). None of these countries have been able Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (2002-2004), to achieve rates of human development that the Fifth National Development Plan (FNDP match overall economic growth. 2006-2010), the Sixth National Development Plan (SNDP 2011-2015) and the Revised Sixth In terms of the poverty gap ratio, indicating National Development Plan (R-SNDP 2013-2016). how far below the poverty line the poor are, the R-SNDP is an investment plan that focuses on national
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