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Greaves Cotton Company Update 150713

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Greaves Cotton Company Update 150713 © Emkay Greaves Cotton Your success is our success Ready for Gen-next; Retain BUY July 15, 2013 n Auto engines on overdrive - (1) Changes in last mile goods transport, both 3-W and 4-W & (2) inroads in 4-W passenger Rating Previous Reco and alternative fuels. Expect 13% volume growth Buy Buy n Efforts underway to strengthen agri equipment, gensets and CMP Target Price infrastructure businesses; it concurrently promises robust Rs62 Rs100 growth in ensuing years EPS Chg FY14E/FY15E (%) NA n Attractive financial matrix; ROIC of +35%, FCF generation of Company Update Target Price change (%) NA Rs2.7 bn in FY13-15E period, dividend payout of 35-40% and Nifty 6,009 dividend yield of 5% Sensex 19,979 n Greaves is trading at 40% discount to capital goods sector & Price Performance 15-30% discount to auto-ancillaries. Valuations are attractive; (%) 1M 3M 6M 12M retain BUY with price target of Rs100/Share Absolute -10 -9 -27 -7 Auto engines business on overdrive; underlying drivers promise 13% Rel. to Nifty -10 -14 -26 -15 volume growth Source: Bloomberg Strong growth drivers for auto engines business promises underlying volume growth of Relative price chart 13% annually. Those which are factored are (1) last mile goods transport through small 90 Rs % 30 goods carrier is gaining popularity; both 3-W and 4-W should stand to gain; Greaves 82 20 holds 90% market share in 3-W and 94% market share in 4-W (2) passenger vehicles is 74 10 moving towards alternative fuels and 4-W’s; Greaves has made inroads in 4-W through 66 0 Magic Iris and alternative fuels as well. Those not factored and could yield upsides are 58 -10 (1) success in 2-cylinder engines and (2) new applications for auto engines. 50 -20 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Efforts underway to strengthen agri equipment, gensets and Greaves Cotton (LHS) Rel to Nifty (RHS) Source: Bloomberg infrastructure businesses Efforts underway by Greaves are as under – (1) Agri equipment business (a) foray into Stock Details Rs30 bn electrical pumpset market (b) indigenization of power tillers and (c) new product Sector Engineering & Capital Goods launches in light farm equipment (2) Gensets business (a) foray into low HP gensets i.e. Bloomberg GRV IB less then 100 kVA (b) increase distribution network and (c) gains from revised emission Equity Capital (Rs mn) 488 norms and (3) Infrastructure business (a) technology tie-up with Samil Korea will drive Face Value(Rs) 2 product innovation, already introduced S-Valve Concrete Pump & Boom Concrete Pump No of shares o/s (mn) 244 In spotlight: cashflow generation, strong return ratios and high dividend payout 52 Week H/L 88/ 59 § Capex spends pegged at Rs0.4-0.5mn annually and scope for reduction in working Market Cap (Rs bn/USD mn) 15/ 250 capital, Greaves is expected to generate free cash-flows of Rs2.7bn (FY13-15E) Daily Avg Volume (No of sh) 114,898 § ROIC for Greaves is +35% on a sustained basis - top quartile of capital goods sector Daily Avg Turnover (US$mn) 0.1 § Dividend payout at +35-40%; expect Rs3/Share and Rs4/Share in FY14E/15E Shareholding Pattern (%) Jun'13 Mar'13 Dec'12 Valuations at discount to peers; Superior financial matrix supports BUY Promoters 51.6 51.6 51.6 The earnings are forecasted to grow at 16% CAGR in FY13-15E period. At the CMP, FII/NRI 8.5 8.7 8.4 Greaves is trading at 8.5x FY14E and 7.4x FY15E earnings, representing a 48% discount to valuations of the capital goods sector (ex-BHEL) and 15-30% discount to Institutions 27.7 27.0 27.2 auto-ancillary sector. With strong free cash generation, high ROIC and dividend yield of Private Corp 2.8 3.3 3.3 5%; steep discount in valuation makes it attractive. We retain BUY rating with price Public 9.4 9.5 9.6 target of Rs100/Share. Source: Bloomberg Financial Snapshot (Consolidated) (Rsmn) YE- Net EBITDA EPS EPS RoE EV/ Mar Sales (Core) (%) APAT (Rs) % chg (%) P/E EBITDA P/BV FY12A 17,893 2,367 13.2 1,302 5.3 -16.6 23.1 11.5 5.9 2.4 FY13A 19,061 2,406 12.6 1,461 6.0 12.2 21.5 10.3 5.8 2.1 FY14E 21,494 2,880 13.4 1,779 7.3 21.8 22.8 8.4 4.0 1.8 FY15E 24,450 3,311 13.5 2,050 8.4 15.2 22.9 7.3 3.1 1.6 Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. 1 Greaves Cotton Company Update A snapshot of Greaves Cotton # 1 Greaves Cotton Ltd., one of India’s leading and well-diversified engineering companies, is primarily engaged in the manufacture of diesel, petrol and kerosene engines for automotives, agri-equipment, power gensets and industrial applications. The company’s agri-equipment business includes light agricultural equipment such as tillers, tractors, bush- cutters, sprayers and harvesters. Besides, it also deals in construction equipment, which are used mostly in road-making and road-concreting work. Greaves operates under three business segments: engines, infrastructure and others. The following are the details of the segments. Engines segment Greaves’ engines segment is the largest contributor to its total revenues at 87-90%. It has an engine manufacturing capacity of around 0.60mn units per annum. The units are spread across four plants located in Aurangabad and Pune (Maharashtra) and Gummidipoondi and Ranipet (Tamil Nadu). The engines segment is split into four sub-segments as follows: In 3-W, Greaves enjoys a +90% § Auto engines – Greaves manufactures single- and double-cylinder diesel engines market share in goods carrier for use in three-wheelers and small commercial vehicles (SCVs). It has business and a 22% market share in relations with 52 original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), besides long-term passenger carriers supply agreements with Piaggio, Tata Motors, Atul Auto, and Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M). The company, a market leader in three-wheeler goods carriers (vehicles with outsourced engines), enjoys a dominant market share of +90% (Details of vehicles fitted with Greaves engines are given in Exhibit 7&10). The company has a 22% market share in the three-wheeler passenger segment (vehicles with outsourced engines). Auto engines contribute 60-70% of the engine segment’s revenues and about 70% of total volumes. § Agriculture equipment – Greaves manufactures lightweight diesel, kerosene and petrol-kerosene engines in the 1-5HP range for applications in pumpsets, power- reapers and power-sprayers. It enjoys a combined market share of 25% of the agri- pumpsets market. Its light agri-equipment such as bush-cutters, sprayers, rotavators and reapers are largely targeted towards small land parcels. The segment contributes 15-20% of the engine segment’s revenues and around 27% of total volumes (agri-engines only). § Power gensets – Greaves earns 5-10% of the engines segment’s revenues from power gensets. It has product offerings in the 15-550kVA range, with a market share of 3-5%. It is relatively strong in 100-400kVA range, with a sizeable market share, though it has no presence in the high kVA range, besides being a late entrant in the below 100kVA range. § Industrial – Greaves offers customized engines of 1-1000hp for industrial applications in marine, railways, mining and construction, among others. It contributes 5-10% of the total engine segment’s revenues. § Segment financials – The segment contributes about 90% of the company’s total revenues and is the sole EBIT contributor. Its segment revenues have grown at a CAGR of 14% over FY05-13 to Rs16.6bn, while EBIT margins have expanded by 80bps to 16.6%. Infrastructure segment Greaves has a 10% market Greaves manufactures and assembles road compaction (rollers) and concreting equipment share of the Rs16bn equipment (batching plants, transit-mixers and concrete-pumps). The segment contributes around market (relevant category) 10% of total revenues. But it has been losing money because of the low scale of operations. The company’s revenues have declined at a CAGR of 15% over FY08-13P. Its losses have been attributed to a weak business environment. Greaves has a 10% market share of the Rs16bn equipment market (factor-relevant product category), with an 11.5% and 9.0% market shares in concreting and compaction markets, respectively. Emkay Research July 15, 2013 2 Greaves Cotton Company Update Exhibit 1: Engines segment break-up Auto Agriculture Power Gensets Industrial Type of engines Light single- and Diesel/ petrol/ Diesel engines Diesel engines manufactured double-cylinder kerosene engines diesel engines Engine capacity 4.4 to 20HP 1-5HP Single unit: 1.4-1000HP 500VA to 500kVA Parallel units: up to 2500kVA Applications 3-W and 4-W Engine pumpsets, Auxiliary power Marine, mining & (SCV), light agri- power-reapers and construction, equipment (in- power-sprayers material handling house) (cranes, forklifts), railways, etc. Revenue 60-70% 15-20% 5-10% 5-10% contribution to the engine segment Volume 71% (410,000 27% (153,000 1% (6,000 units) 1% (6150 units) contribution units) units) Plant location Aurangabad Gummidipoondi Pune Pune & (Maharashtra) (Tamil Nadu) (Maharashtra) Aurangabad and Ranipet, (Maharashtra) (Tamil Nadu) Ranipet and Gummidipoondi (Tamil Nadu) Source: Company, Emkay Research Exhibit 2: Greaves share-holding pattern – Mar’13 Exhibit 3: Top institutional holders – Mar’13 Name of Holder No. of Shares % of Holding Public Private Corp Amansa Capital 10,472,884 4.29 9% 3% General Insurance Corp of India 6,448,950 2.64 LIC of India 10,074,305 4.13 Reliance Capital Trustee Co.
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