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Montreal—Geneva SUMMARY OF PASSENGER AND CARGO TRAFFIC Passenger and cargo traffic World scheduled passenger and cargo traffic by region of airline domicile – Revenue Tonne-Kilometres (millions) Asia Pacific 34.2% Europe 26.4% LOAD FACTOR Revenue Passenger-Kilometers (millions): Africa 2.2% 8,679,621 Latin America 4.5% Available Seat-Kilometers (millions): 82.5% 10,519,174 North America 22.5% Middle East 10.2% Share of Revenue Passenger- Kilometres by Airline Type LOAD FACTOR Cargo Tonne-Kilometers (millions): Traditional/Legacy 74% 253,982 Available Cargo Tonne Kilometers (millions): 543,717 46.7% Low cost 23% Leisure 3% OPERATING AND NET RESULTS (US$ millions) IN THIS VERSION OF 2011 19,800 8,300 2012 18,400 9,200 2013 25,300 10,700 2014 35,450 13,802 2015 61,962 35,971 2016 60,144 34,191 WATS2020 2017 56,600 37,600 2018 45,947 27,250 2019* 42,467 25,882 *Preliminary Operating Result Net Result TOP AIRLINES BY RPK AND CTK Top 10 Passenger (RPK) Top 10 Cargo (CTK) Delta Air Lines 350,145 Federal Express 17,503 United Airlines 342,935 Qatar Airways 13,024 American Airlines 342,510 United Parcel Service 12,842 Emirates 299,496 Emirates 12,052 China Southern Airlines 213,573 Cathay Pacific Airways 10,930 Southwest Airlines (2) 211,379 Korean Air 7,412 China Eastern Airlines 186,644 Lufthansa (3) 7,226 Ryanair (4) 185,405 Cargolux 7,180 Qatar Airways 172,591 Turkish Airlines (3) 7,029 Air China 169,030 China Southern Airlines 6,825 * Airline has additional notes, please refer to Ranking Table 4.1 * Airline has additional notes, please refer to Ranking Table 4.2 TRAFFIC BY ROUTE AREA Percentage of international scheduled Revenue Passenger-Kilometers North Europe Asia America 7.1% 11.3% 9.9% 7.1% 17.9% 13.3% 5.1% 2.9% 0.5% 1.8% 7.1% 2.9% 1.2% 0.2% 3.4% Middle Central America 2.0% Caribbean East 1.5% 3.6% 0.7% 1.2% Africa 2.1% 0.7% South Southwest America Pacific TRAFFIC BY ROUTE AREA Percentage of international scheduled Cargo Tonnes-Kilometers North Europe Asia America 22.4% 13.0% 20.8% 22.4% 2.7% 8.2% 5.2% 0.6% 0.9% 2.3% 6.6% 1.3% 0.8% 0.0% 2.3% Middle Central America 2.1% Caribbean East 1.1% 2.8% 0.2% 0.8% Africa 2.9% 0.3% South Southwest America Pacific Industry Economic Analysis A challenging year for air transport with below trend growth for passenger volumes and declining cargo volumes in 2019 Passenger demand slowed but remained solid Demand for air passenger services remained solid in 2019, with industry-wide revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs) increasing by 4.2%. This represented a sizeable slowdown from the strong pace of 7.3% recorded in 2018. In 2019, RPK growth fell below the long-run industry average growth rate (which we estimate to be in the order of 5¼–5½%) for the first time in seven years. Air travel demand in 2019 was impacted by a softer (but still supportive) global economic backdrop and weaker business confidence amidst international trade tensions, including between the US and China. World GDP growth slipped from 3% in 2018 to 2½% last year and the RPK/GDP multiplier fell to below its long-run median level for the first time since 2009. Chart 1: RPK Versus World GDP Growth Source: IATA, IMF WATS 2020 1 World Air Transport Statistics The China domestic market once again added the most passenger journeys… Despite the moderation in growth, there were more than 3.9 billion origin-destination (O-D) passenger journeys worldwide in 2019. Among them, domestic routes within China again provided the largest incremental increase in passenger trips compared to 2018. This market alone added a little more than 30 million journeys in the year, at a brisk annual growth rate of 5.8%. The United States domestic market followed with almost 27 million more passenger journeys in 2019, growing at a robust 4.6% pace for the year. Vietnam contributed 4.7m additional domestic passenger journeys in 2019, increasing at a strong 16.4% pace and ranking it the third largest contributor. Among the top 10 ranking, Vietnam’s impressive growth performance was outpaced by both Nigeria (48%) – which moves into the ranking for the first time – and Colombia (19%). After double-digit growth over a number of years, the India domestic market was impacted by the demise of Jet Airways in 2019 which contributed to a sharp growth slowdown, to just 2.7% in 2019. Even so, India still added more than 3 million additional passenger journeys last year. Chart 2: Top 10 Increasing O–D Markets in 2019 Source: IATA DDS WATS 2020 2 WATS 2020 Industry Economic Analysis …but the US domestic passenger market remained the world’s largest Although China’s domestic market added the most passenger journeys in 2019 compared with 2018, the US domestic market remains the world’s largest single O-D air travel market. More than 610 million passenger journeys were undertaken in the US domestic market in 2019. China continues to close the gap, ranking a close second, with 550 million passenger journeys for the year. These two markets are followed at some distance by India, with 125 million journeys in 2019. Unsurprisingly, domestic markets dominated the rankings. The Spain-UK combination was the first international country pairing, at number 10. The top 12 markets accounted for almost half of the total number of O-D passenger journeys in 2019. Chart 3: Largest O-D air passenger markets, 2019 Source: IATA DDS WATS 2020 3 World Air Transport Statistics Air cargo volumes declined in 2019 Air cargo volumes began to decline in Q4 2018, and this weakness was carried through 2019, resulting in the worst performance for the air cargo segment since the global financial crisis a decade earlier, in 2009. Not all air freight sectors were equally affected, however, with e-commerce and pharmaceuticals, for example, continuing to perform well. In 2019, cargo tonne kilometres (CTKs) contracted by a sizeable 3.2% year-on-year, the first negative outturn since 2012. Global trade tensions created strong headwinds for the industry over the course of the year and came in addition to a broad-based and not entirely unrelated slowdown in global economic activity, including in several major manufacturing- intensive economies. Global goods trade growth slowed from 3.7% in 2018 to just 0.9% in 2019 (also the weakest performance since 2009). Towards the end of the year, business conditions for the air cargo market showed some signs of stabilization supported by the US-China trade war truce, which included the signing of the so-called phase 1 agreement. Chart 4: Air freight versus global goods trade growth Source: IATA, Netherlands CPB WATS 2020 4 WATS 2020 Industry Economic Analysis Regional differences were evident in passenger and particularly cargo outcomes The mixed fortunes of the air passenger and cargo markets at the global level were also reflected in outcomes at the regional level. Passenger market results showed less regional variation than cargo on this occasion. With the exception of the Middle East, the air passenger growth performance (in RPK terms) was relatively consistent across the regions in 2019, ranging between 3.9% (North America) and 4.8% (Asia Pacific). For the Middle East carriers, 2019 was a challenging year in many respects. Falling business confidence in parts of the region, combined with some key airlines going through a process of structural change after a sustained period of strong growth, along with geopolitical tensions all weighed on industry outcomes, delivering modest RPK growth of 2.3% for the year. Having said that, Middle East passenger volumes showed a clear improvement in the second half of the year, supported by more robust growth to and from Asia and Europe.