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IHS Jane’s Analysis: Iran’s satellite launch programme September 2012 ihs.com Introduction KEY POINTS Iran’s space programme is ambitious. The country has spent some USD500 million since 2010 on its new space Despite the rapid construction of a new space centre that will be capable of handling large new liquid-fuelled rockets, analysis by centre which, in addition to launching its current rockets, is IHS suggests that Iran’s space programme has had several delays being prepared to launch larger rockets currently under and authorities are covering up launch failures. development. Since February 2011, Iran has launched five The Iranian plan may be to provide commercial space launch rockets at an average of one almost every 16 weeks, and services, and, using satellite imagery over the construction at has plans for more. Semnan, IHS has determined that the new launch tower will be able to facilitate the launch of a rocket even larger than those IHS was the first to report on the new construction at the reportedly under development. Khomeini Space Centre near Semnan in the north of the country in 2010, and despite only starting some two years Although designated for space launch, the rockets themselves use components from ballistic missiles, suggesting that the military ago, the aggressive pace of construction of Iran’s first implications of the project could add to tensions within the region. space launch centre has meant that “some 80% of the actual construction” had already been completed by June regime, which is underscored by its naming after the 2012, according to Iranian Minister of Defence Ahmad country’s former supreme leader, Ayatollah Khomeini. Vahidi. This was confirmed by commercial satellite imagery obtained and analysed by IHS. The scale and At the current rate of construction, it is believed that Iran speed of construction attest to the site’s importance to the will have the capability to launch the new Simorgh satellite © 2012 IHS 1 ihs.com IHS Jane’s Analysis: Iran’s satellite launch programme launch vehicle (SLV) by mid-2013, although in reality the A 110B is a road-mobile, solid propellant, single warhead programme has not progressed as smoothly as the Iranian missile. It is 8.86m long, 0.61m in diameter, has a range of authorities have portrayed. over 300 km, and can carry a payload of 500 kg. Launch record Kavoshgar-4 was launched on 15 March 2011, carrying a dummy the same weight and size as the live monkey that Considering Iran’s first indigenous space attempt was only would launch on Kavoshgar-5. The launch appeared to be made in 2008, even its partially successful space successful, and Iran indeed claimed success; however, a launches mark success for an emerging rocket capability. recent image of what is suspected to be the recovered Its launch record is all the more impressive when Kavoshgar-4 capsule has been released and appears to compared to other emerging programmes like North show significant damage. The successful recovery of a Korea’s, which has only had the means to carry out four capsule is critical if an animal or future astronaut is to tests in 14 years, all of which have failed during launch. survive; the damage sustained challenges claims that the Despite this relative success, preceding missions should mission was a full success. only be described as partial successes at best. However, Kavoshgar-5 was more ambitious and was to carry a live of the four acknowledged launches, Iran claims one primate. Initially scheduled for some time in September success and one failure for the two Kavoshgar research 2011, further announcements narrowed the launch date to rockets, and two successful launches for its satellites on between 7-9 September. After these dates passed, no the Safir-1B SLV. Iran has not acknowledged the fifth – further announcements were made for almost a month the launch of the Safir and its Fajr satellite payload – when, on 12 October 2011, Deputy Minister of Science insisting its May launch has been delayed. IHS has Mehdinejad-Norui stated: “The launch was not publicised, attained commercially available imagery indicating that the as all of its anticipated objectives were not accomplished launch failed. and Iran indefinitely postponed plans to send a live Putting an astronaut into space within the next decade is a monkey into space.” The report was tantamount to an goal often stated by the Iranian authorities. To this end, admission of failure. Several announcements in May 2012 Iran has launched two rockets into space with payloads indicated that the Iranian authorities aimed to try again in that carried simulated or live primates, which were August or September 2012, although at the time of writing planned to be recovered after re-entry. The Kavoshgar-4 no further launches have occurred. and -5 research rockets used a Fateh-110 military short range ballistic missile (SRBM) as their booster. The Fateh- © 2012 IHS 2 ihs.com IHS Jane’s Analysis: Iran’s satellite launch programme Satellite launches assembly was from a Sony digital commercial camera Since 2011, Iran has officially launched the Safir-1B SLV available at camera stores. twice, with evidence of a third launch. The first satellite, There are many reasons for this poor quality. Creating Rasad, was launched on 16 June 2011. Although it wholly indigenous high-resolution imaging satellites achieved orbit, this was lower than planned, limiting its requires intensive technological specialisation rivalling that life-span from two months to just three weeks. Despite of even rocketry and nuclear science in terms of difficulty claims that the satellite returned images, none have been and proprietary access. High-resolution imagery requires released, suggesting that the satellite may have failed. a satellite payload too heavy for Iran’s current rocket The second satellite, Navid, was also on an imagery arsenal to lift, or a highly advanced lighter satellite whose mission. It was launched on 3 February 2012 and development far exceeds the technological capability of all achieved an orbit close to that planned, and decayed but a handful of countries. naturally on 1 April after nearly two months in orbit. Like The third Safir-1B launch attempt carried the Fajr imagery Rasad, the Iranians released statements early on in the reconnaissance satellite, on or about 23 May 2012. Navid mission saying that the satellite had taken images, Despite statements issued by the Iranian authorities but again, none were released. While the lack of images suggesting that the launch was postponed, IHS analysis of suggests that both satellites failed once in orbit, another open source and commercial satellite imagery indicates reason for not releasing imagery could be embarrassingly that the launch did in fact take place, suggesting the poor picture quality. The day after the Rasad launch, the authorities fabricated a story to cover up a launch failure. Head of Iran’s Space Agency, Hamid Fazeli, publicly A comparison of imagery of the Safir SLV launch site on acknowledged: “The cameras onboard past and planned different dates shows that a launch coinciding with the satellites are too poor to give useful images...Even the announced Fajr mission actually occurred. The Safir SLV Amir Kabir, Navid, and Zafar that Iran is planning to orbit is the only rocket known to use this pad and, in general, in the next few years have cameras that take pictures of the Iranians do not clean their launch pads until a few low resolution and limited utility.” weeks before the next launch. This means that blast scars It is known from statements by Iranian officials that at least remain for considerable periods of time, providing an one camera on a future satellite will provide photos only excellent indicator of launch activity. 1/800th of the quality of satellite photos that are already The pad on 18 May was clean, painted a light blue with available commercially. One source, utilising published three dark blue Iranian Space Agency logos. On the 21 material, reported that a camera lens seen during June, some 30 days after the expected launch date, there © 2012 IHS 3 ihs.com IHS Jane’s Analysis: Iran’s satellite launch programme are clear blast marks appearing in the centre of the pad, would most likely be a copy of the one that appears to indicating that the Fajr launch had occurred sometime have failed in May 2012, with the delay between launches between these dates, contradicting Iranian reports that the needed to establish why the initial attempt failed and launch had been postponed. The appearance of the pad prepare and ready another Safir-1B SLV and Fajr satellite had still not changed in imagery from 14 August 2012. for launch. At the Safir launch site, the blast scars appear as ‘V’ In addition, the Kavoshgar-5 research rocket (again, shaped, caused by the curved blast splitter under the believed to be a copy of the one that failed in September rocket, which directs the exhaust gas away from the 2011) was scheduled for launch in late August or transporter erector launcher (TEL) and umbilical tower. September 2012. These launches would be the second The same signature has been present after the launches attempts for both missions. Regardless of Iran’s individual of the three previous Safir satellite launches: Omid launch successes or failures, the pace and scale of these (February 2009), Rasad (June 2011) and Navid (February efforts have all been underpinned by an unrelenting drive 2012). No imagery is available for the first two launches in to advance the country’s rocket capabilities, as shown by February 2007 and August 2008. the frequency of such high-profile launches and continued aggressive construction at their pre-eminent space launch A history of the Fajr satellite centre.
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