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Home , Fajr (satellite), Navid (satellite), Safir (rocket), Simorgh (rocket)

IHS Jane’s

Analysis: Iran’s satellite launch programme

September 2012 ihs.com

Introduction KEY POINTS Iran’s space programme is ambitious. The country has spent some USD500 million since 2010 on its new space Despite the rapid construction of a new space centre that will be capable of handling large new liquid-fuelled rockets, analysis by centre which, in addition to launching its current rockets, is IHS suggests that Iran’s space programme has had several delays being prepared to launch larger rockets currently under and authorities are covering up launch failures. development. Since February 2011, Iran has launched five The Iranian plan may be to provide commercial space launch rockets at an average of one almost every 16 weeks, and services, and, using satellite imagery over the construction at has plans for more. Semnan, IHS has determined that the new launch tower will be able to facilitate the launch of a rocket even larger than those IHS was the first to report on the new construction at the reportedly under development. Khomeini Space Centre near Semnan in the north of the country in 2010, and despite only starting some two years Although designated for space launch, the rockets themselves use components from ballistic missiles, suggesting that the military ago, the aggressive pace of construction of Iran’s first implications of the project could add to tensions within the region. space launch centre has meant that “some 80% of the actual construction” had already been completed by June regime, which is underscored by its naming after the 2012, according to Iranian Minister of Defence Ahmad country’s former supreme leader, Ayatollah Khomeini. Vahidi. This was confirmed by commercial satellite imagery obtained and analysed by IHS. The scale and At the current rate of construction, it is believed that Iran speed of construction attest to the site’s importance to the will have the capability to launch the new Simorgh satellite

IHS Jane’s Analysis: Iran’s satellite launch programme launch vehicle (SLV) by mid-2013, although in reality the A 110B is a road-mobile, solid propellant, single warhead programme has not progressed as smoothly as the Iranian missile. It is 8.86m long, 0.61m in diameter, has a range of authorities have portrayed. over 300 km, and can carry a payload of 500 kg.

Launch record Kavoshgar-4 was launched on 15 March 2011, carrying a dummy the same weight and size as the live monkey that Considering Iran’s first indigenous space attempt was only would launch on Kavoshgar-5. The launch appeared to be made in 2008, even its partially successful space successful, and Iran indeed claimed success; however, a launches mark success for an emerging rocket capability. recent image of what is suspected to be the recovered Its launch record is all the more impressive when Kavoshgar-4 capsule has been released and appears to compared to other emerging programmes like North show significant damage. The successful recovery of a Korea’s, which has only had the means to carry out four capsule is critical if an animal or future astronaut is to tests in 14 years, all of which have failed during launch. survive; the damage sustained challenges claims that the Despite this relative success, preceding missions should mission was a full success. only be described as partial successes at best. However, Kavoshgar-5 was more ambitious and was to carry a live of the four acknowledged launches, Iran claims one primate. Initially scheduled for some time in September success and one failure for the two Kavoshgar research 2011, further announcements narrowed the launch date to rockets, and two successful launches for its satellites on between 7-9 September. After these dates passed, no the Safir-1B SLV. Iran has not acknowledged the fifth – further announcements were made for almost a month the launch of the Safir and its Fajr satellite payload – when, on 12 October 2011, Deputy Minister of Science insisting its May launch has been delayed. IHS has Mehdinejad-Norui stated: “The launch was not publicised, attained commercially available imagery indicating that the as all of its anticipated objectives were not accomplished launch failed. and Iran indefinitely postponed plans to send a live Putting an astronaut into space within the next decade is a monkey into space.” The report was tantamount to an goal often stated by the Iranian authorities. To this end, admission of failure. Several announcements in May 2012 Iran has launched two rockets into space with payloads indicated that the Iranian authorities aimed to try again in that carried simulated or live primates, which were August or September 2012, although at the time of writing planned to be recovered after re-entry. The Kavoshgar-4 no further launches have occurred. and -5 research rockets used a Fateh-110 military short range ballistic missile (SRBM) as their booster. The Fateh-

Satellite launches assembly was from a Sony digital commercial camera Since 2011, Iran has officially launched the Safir-1B SLV available at camera stores. twice, with evidence of a third launch. The first satellite, There are many reasons for this poor quality. Creating Rasad, was launched on 16 June 2011. Although it wholly indigenous high-resolution imaging satellites achieved orbit, this was lower than planned, limiting its requires intensive technological specialisation rivalling that life-span from two months to just three weeks. Despite of even rocketry and nuclear science in terms of difficulty claims that the satellite returned images, none have been and proprietary access. High-resolution imagery requires released, suggesting that the satellite may have failed. a satellite payload too heavy for Iran’s current rocket The second satellite, Navid, was also on an imagery arsenal to lift, or a highly advanced lighter satellite whose mission. It was launched on 3 February 2012 and development far exceeds the technological capability of all achieved an orbit close to that planned, and decayed but a handful of countries. naturally on 1 April after nearly two months in orbit. Like The third Safir-1B launch attempt carried the Fajr imagery Rasad, the Iranians released statements early on in the reconnaissance satellite, on or about 23 May 2012. Navid mission saying that the satellite had taken images, Despite statements issued by the Iranian authorities but again, none were released. While the lack of images suggesting that the launch was postponed, IHS analysis of suggests that both satellites failed once in orbit, another open source and commercial satellite imagery indicates reason for not releasing imagery could be embarrassingly that the launch did in fact take place, suggesting the poor picture quality. The day after the Rasad launch, the authorities fabricated a story to cover up a launch failure. Head of Iran’s Space Agency, Hamid Fazeli, publicly A comparison of imagery of the Safir SLV launch site on acknowledged: “The cameras onboard past and planned different dates shows that a launch coinciding with the satellites are too poor to give useful images...Even the announced Fajr mission actually occurred. The Safir SLV Amir Kabir, Navid, and Zafar that Iran is planning to orbit is the only rocket known to use this pad and, in general, in the next few years have cameras that take pictures of the Iranians do not clean their launch pads until a few low resolution and limited utility.” weeks before the next launch. This means that blast scars It is known from statements by Iranian officials that at least remain for considerable periods of time, providing an one camera on a future satellite will provide photos only excellent indicator of launch activity. 1/800th of the quality of satellite photos that are already The pad on 18 May was clean, painted a light blue with available commercially. One source, utilising published three dark blue Iranian Space Agency logos. On the 21 material, reported that a camera lens seen during June, some 30 days after the expected launch date, there

© 2012 IHS 3 ihs.com IHS Jane’s Analysis: Iran’s satellite launch programme are clear blast marks appearing in the centre of the pad, would most likely be a copy of the one that appears to indicating that the Fajr launch had occurred sometime have failed in May 2012, with the delay between launches between these dates, contradicting Iranian reports that the needed to establish why the initial attempt failed and launch had been postponed. The appearance of the pad prepare and ready another Safir-1B SLV and Fajr satellite had still not changed in imagery from 14 August 2012. for launch.

At the Safir launch site, the blast scars appear as ‘V’ In addition, the Kavoshgar-5 research rocket (again, shaped, caused by the curved blast splitter under the believed to be a copy of the one that failed in September rocket, which directs the exhaust gas away from the 2011) was scheduled for launch in late August or transporter erector launcher (TEL) and umbilical tower. September 2012. These launches would be the second The same signature has been present after the launches attempts for both missions. Regardless of Iran’s individual of the three previous Safir satellite launches: Omid launch successes or failures, the pace and scale of these (February 2009), Rasad (June 2011) and Navid (February efforts have all been underpinned by an unrelenting drive 2012). No imagery is available for the first two launches in to advance the country’s rocket capabilities, as shown by February 2007 and August 2008. the frequency of such high-profile launches and continued aggressive construction at their pre-eminent space launch A history of the Fajr satellite centre. Date Description 7 Feb 11 Mock-up displayed in Tehran at Aerospace Technology Day Director of the Iran Space Agency, Hamid Fazeli, announces that Fajr will 2 May 12 Nuclear fears launch within a month Head of Iran’s Aerospatial Industries, Mehdi Farahi, announces launch 12 May 12 date of 23 May; confirmed by Minister of Defence Ahmad Vahidi Tensions remain high in the region, not least because of 18 May 12 Satellite imagery shows a clear launch pad, free from blast scarring 23 May 12 Day of launch; no news Western and Israeli fears about a secret Iranian nuclear Hamid Fazeli announces that launch had been delayed and would take 29 May 12 weapons programme. Warheads are not the only concern, place within 10 months Satellite imagery shows a launch pad with blast scarring, suggesting 21 Jun 12 as a nuclear weapon would still need to be mounted onto launch had taken place Fathollah Karami, member of Aerospace Technology Development a delivery system. Given Iran’s current arsenal, the most 6 Jul 12 Committee, states that delay was caused by micro-motors used for orbit changing likely candidate would be the Shahab-3 or Sejil-2 ballistic 12 Jul 12 Hamid Fazeli announces that Fajr is undergoing final tests missiles, although given their relatively small size there 1 Aug 12 Hamid Fazeli states that Fajr would launch in 2-3 months would be a number of problems mounting a large, basic The most likely explanation for the official silence is that nuclear weapon. the Fajr failed to achieve orbit, although on 1 August 2012, Hamid Fazeli, Head of the Iranian Space Agency, stated Considering the inherent difficulties of miniaturising a that it would be launched in “two to three months”. This nuclear device, any developments that may allow Iran to

© 2012 IHS 4 ihs.com IHS Jane’s Analysis: Iran’s satellite launch programme launch bigger rockets or heavier payloads are bound to large investment. Previously, Russia and the European cause international concern. Analysis of the infrastructure Space Agency (ESA) have both managed to generate being built at Semnan confirms that Iran is preparing for successful revenue streams through space launches. larger rockets than the two-stage Simorgh SLV that was However, the Shabab-3 missile is technically the first previously due to be hosted by the site. The overlapping stage of the two-stage Safir SLV, and it is unlikely that the nature of the technologies involved in an SLV and an prospect of the technology being used to launch an SLV intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) mean that being applied to longer-range ballistic weapons has been converting successful space launches into a weapons lost on Iran’s neighbours. capability, to gain greater influence inside and outside the region, is a real possibility. Evolving site

In an effort to allay these fears, Minister of Defence Vahidi IHS first reported on the presence of the original space declared through the Islamic Republic News Agency on 2 pad at Semnan in 2008, and the massive construction June 2012: “[The] Iranian government aspires to develop effort in 2010. Subsequent efforts mean that today the the centre into a point of reference for the Islamic world.” largest feature of the Khomeini Space Launch Centre is a new launch complex, which consists of three separate Given the exposure of the site, and the time-consuming parts: the launch pad, the control bunker and a propellant processes of assembling and fuelling large liquid rockets, storage area – all connected by over 1.2 km of buried Semnan is the likely site for testing these rockets but is concrete conduits. In addition to the launch complex there unlikely to be an operational missile base. There has been is a liquid-rocket engine test facility and a horizontal no mention of launching the military missiles for which the assembly/check-out building, as well as other smaller original Semnan test range was developed. Launching buildings. satellites for domestic use is probably the business model that the Iranian government is hoping will pay for such a The launch pad was under construction by October 2010

Iranian space launches since 2011 Date Rocket Type Payload Mission Comment Capsule with Research Partial success; successful launch but photo of damaged capsule, probablt Kavoshgar-4, has 2 Feb 11 Kavoshgar-4 simulated Capsule test rocket been released monkey 16 Jun 11 Safir-1B SLV Rasad satellite Imagery Partial success; lower orbit of satellite achieved, no imagery released Research Capsule with live Capsule return and Sep 11 Kavoshgar-5 Failed recovery after successful launch. Failure confirmed by officials. rocket primate primate survival 3 Feb 12 Safir-1B SLV Navid satellite Imagery Partial success; no imagery released 23 May 12 Safir-1B SLV Fajr satellite Imagery Likely launch failure

© 2012 IHS 5 ihs.com IHS Jane’s Analysis: Iran’s satellite launch programme and was still being worked on by August 2012. Notably, at type of the engine tested cannot be determined, although the pad’s centre – where the launch stand has been IHS believes that it was a cluster of four Simorgh first placed – the two flame trenches neck down to a 5m width, stage engines, probably to check the integrity of the test then flare out to their full 10m width at the edges of the stand. pad and continue to a total length of 40m. This suggests that the rocket that the pad was initially built to launch was IHS originally reported that this new launch facility at less than 5m in diameter, probably in the 4m to 4.5m Semnan would be constructed specifically for the Simorgh range (which is also the upper limit of the engine test rocket, but analysis of the launch pad shows that Iranian facility). rocket ambitions exceed even this huge rocket. The two- stage Simorgh SLV will be 27m in length and 2.5m in The seven-storey gantry tower is about 40m in height, diameter. This is larger than the 0.61m diameter of the although it has a roof that means the maximum height of a Fateh-110 engines used for the Kavoshgar-4/5, and the potential future rocket may be a few metres less. The 5m Safir’s 22m length and 1.25m diameter. width of the flame trench limits the diameter of any new rocket to around 4.5m or less. This indicates that a new three-stage SLV is under development which will have a probable length of just While it is difficult to estimate the sizes of the tanks inside under 40m, and a diameter of between 3.5m to 4.5m. All the propellant storage area, its buildings are larger than of the satellites due for launch are planned for either the similar constructions at North Korea’s Sohae or Tonghae Safir or Simorgh SLVs, which suggests that it will be at sites. The larger size may suggest that Iran intends to least four to five years before the newer, larger rocket is handle more frequent launches, which would be ready for its first launch. consistent with its commercial aspirations. Outside the launch complex, the test stand at the liquid-engine rocket test facility is Iran’s largest.

The site is already in use, and imagery from 18 May 2012 shows an engine test had recently taken place. Compared with images from 19 December 2011, the bottom of the flame trench has changed colour from a concrete grey, while the presence of a stream of black liquid running into a drain and an apparent blast scar suggest the recent test may not have been entirely successful. The size and fuel

Conclusion

Iran’s launch record is impressive for a country that is still This analysis is abridged; the full analysis – including developing its rocket capability, particularly when satellite imagery analysis – was first published in IHS compared to countries embarking on similar programmes, Jane’s Intelligence Review in September 2012 and is although there is still room for improvement. A possible available within IHS Jane’s Military & Security failed rocket engine test was seen in early 2012, and Assessments Intelligence Centre. despite statements to the contrary, it is highly probable that Iran attempted to launch the Fajr satellite payload on a Safir-1B SLV on 23 May 2012, but failed to achieve orbit. Yet after six days, and no mention of a failure in the media, authorities concocted a story that the launch had been postponed for up to 10 months. Tight media control was also seen after the failure of Kavoshgar-5.

Iran’s drive to complete the Khomeini Space Centre is matched by its ambitions for larger rockets, with the centre being geared towards hosting rockets with larger payloads and longer ranges. These will help it project power and assert strategic dominance in the region, while once again spotlighting potential complementarity with the putative nuclear weapons programme.

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