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Shale Gas: Risk and Benefit to Health

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Shale Gas: Risk and Benefit to Health Shale Gas: Risk and Benefit to Health Notes from the literature Produced by Medact, September 2016 Contents Introduction 2 Fracking and Unconventional Shale Gas Production 3 Assessing potential harms and benefits 3 Hazards, Risks and Harms 7 Water pollution 10 Well integrity 23 Wastewater management 26 Air pollution 28 Health impacts of pollution 34 Hazards and risks associated with traffic, noise, light and odour 42 Social, economic and local environmental effects 45 Fugitive emissions 55 Regulation and Risk Management 65 Economic and Commercial Viability 76 Climate Change and Health 79 Global GHG emissions and carbon budgets 85 The UK: GHG emissions and energy policy 92 Carbon Capture and Storage 104 Energy efficiency and conservation 104 Broader Development Policy and Co-Benefits of CC Mitigation 115 Acknowledgements 1 A. Introduction 1. In April 2015, Medact published an assessment of the potential health threats associated with shale gas production (SGP), including the process of high volume, hydraulic fracturing (‘fracking’) and reported that: • significant hazards are unavoidably associated with fracking and could impact negatively on the health and wellbeing of local communities; • the regulatory framework for fracking in the UK was unclear, incomplete and inadequate, and compromised further by budget and staff cuts to regulatory agencies; and • shale gas is not necessarily a ‘clean’ source of energy and may hinder our transition towards a decarbonised energy system. 2. Medact concluded that the risks and threats associated with SGP outweighed its potential benefits, and recommended that it should not be encouraged in the UK. 3. Since publishing that report, Medact has continued to monitor the scientific literature and policy debates concerning SGP. In addition, Medact staff have participated in publication of a systematic review of the scientific research on the health effects of SGP. 4. This document consists of a set of semi-structured notes that have been used to inform a new publication that sets out Medact’s position on SGP. This new publication (Shale Gas Production in England: An Updated Public Health Assessment) is freely available from the Medact website.1 5. The purpose of these notes is to present some of the wide-ranging issues, data and analysis that are needed for a well-informed, holistic and nuanced understanding of SGP. We hope the notes will provide a useful resource for others working on this issue and for interested members of the general public. 6. This document is a work in progress, and will be updated on an ongoing basis. 7. Having reviewed at the literature on SGP and at arguments put forward by proponents of shale gas who argue that SGP can be conducted safely, and that shale gas is a relatively clean, beneficial and strategically-important source of energy, we continue to advise against the development of a shale gas industry in the UK on the grounds that it represents a significant threat to human health and wellbeing that may be avoidable. 8. Many of the concerns about the potential risks associated with SGP relate to natural gas and fossil fuels more generally. However, this document is focused specifically on the policy to encourage SGP in the UK. 1 http://www.medact.org/wp/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/medact_shale-gas_WEB.pdf 2 B. FrackinG and Unconventional Shale Gas Production 9. The term ‘fracking’ is commonly used to describe a process of shale gas extraction that uses a technique known as ‘high-volume, hydraulic fracturing’ (HVHF) in which high volumes of fluid are injected underground under high pressure. This is designed to fracture gas-bearing shale formations that lie underground, allowing gas to be released and to flow up to the surface where it can be captured for use. 10. Fracking is also associated with the term ‘unconventional natural gas’ (UNG) which is loosely defined to mean gas that is captured from unconventional reservoirs and includes shale gas and coalbed methane. 11. Shale gas is a form of UNG because it is trapped or locked within the fine-grained sedimentary rocks of shale formations that lie underground, and can only be released once the shale is artificially fractured. Although hydraulic fracturing has been used to stimulate oil and gas wells for many decades, the high volumes and high pressures of fluid required to fracture shale rock are relatively new developments. 12. Shale gas production (SGP) is also characterised by improvements in horizontal drilling techniques which allow horizontal boreholes to be drilled for up to 10km at depths of more than 1.5km. These developments in engineering have allowed the oil and gas industry to fracture greater amounts of shale rock that were previously considered inaccessible or uneconomic.2 13. This report is not limited to an assessment of the potential health effects of HVHF, but covers the entire process of SGP including the construction of wellpads; the drilling of boreholes; the extraction and use of water; the storage, transportation of waste products; and the processing, storage and transportation of natural gas to end users. C. AssessinG potential harms and benefits 10. An assessment of the potential health impact of SGP has to be balanced, and must consider both the potential harms and benefits of SGP. 11. We have used a framework that incorporates two sets of benefits (Figure 1). First, those related to energy itself, which has been a crucial ingredient to the remarkable improvements in human health witnessed over the past 250 years. Second, the potential economic benefits in terms of revenue, job creation and local investment. 12. The framework also describes five sets of potential harms: 1) exposure to hazardous materials and pollutants; 2) exposure to so-called ‘nuisances’ such as noise, light pollution, odour and traffic congestion; 3) social and economic effects that may have an adverse impact on health and 2 Adgate et al (2014) has noted that the rapid increase in the technology’s development in the US has brought wells and related infrastructure closer to population centres 3 wellbeing; 4) seismic (earthquake) activity; and 5) the release of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and the effects of global warming and climate change. Figure 1: A framework describing the potential benefits and harms of SGP 13. The type of negative health effects that may arise from these five sets of potential harms are many, and consist of both acute and chronic diseases and illnesses, including those mediated by psychological and emotional pathways. Negative health effects may arise from perceptions of risk which can result in anxiety, stress and fear.3 Some effects may be experienced immediately, whilst others (such as exposure to carcinogenic toxins) may take many years. 14. The framework above excludes occupational health risks related to accidents or equipment malfunctions on and around the wellpad. Although there are few data specific to SGP, oil and gas production is relatively dangerous compared to many other forms of industrial activity. 4 5 15. Blowouts can cause drill pipe, mud, cement, fracking fluids, and flowback to be ejected from the bore and expelled at high pressure; and can set off an explosion. Fires can involve other equipment on the well pad. Historical data from the oil and gas industry indicate that blowout 3 Luria, Parkins and Lyons (2009) ‘Health Risk Perception and Environmental Problems: Findings from ten case studies in the North West of England’. Liverpool JMU Centre for Public 4 Adgate JL, Goldstein BD and McKenzie LM, 2014. Potential Public Health Hazards, Exposures and Health Effects from Unconventional Natural Gas Development. Environ. Sci. Technol 48 (15), pp 8307–8320 5 Witter R Z, Tenney L, Clark S and Newman L. Occupational exposures in the oil and gas extraction industry: state of the science and research recommendations. Am. J. Ind. Med. 2014, in press. 4 frequency is approximately 1 per 10,000 wells.6 Published data from the Marcellus Shale indicates a blowout risk of 0.17% for the years 2005 – 2013.7 16. The potential harms associated with climate change relate to the fact that natural gas is both a fossil fuel and a greenhouse gas in its own right. Because of its potential to contribute to global warming, a health impact assessment of SGP in the UK needs to consider the potential impacts of climate change on global health more generally. 17. In assessing the potential harms and benefits of SGP, it has to be recognised that the effects and outcomes of SGP are dependent on a range of modulating factors that are context-specific (as illustrated in Figure 1). 18. Clearly, the scale and intensity of SGP, and the size, composition and proximity of local communities, will have a considerable bearing on the level of risk and impact on health. Similarly, local demographic features and the nature of pre-existing economic activities will influence the extent to which any social, cultural and economic disruption caused by SGP impacts negatively on local communities. 19. The specific geological features of the shale formations and their overlying strata, geographic variables such as the local climate and topography, and the nature of the local ecosystem and road network, are also important variables that influence the type and degree of risk associated with SGP. 20. The adequacy and effectiveness of regulation and the ethical standards and operating practices of shale gas operators (including the adoption of new engineering technologies and safety improvements) are similarly important in determining levels of safety. 21. The economic benefits of SGP and their distribution across society are dependent on various factors including future gas prices; the tax and subsidy regime applied to the shale gas industry; the employment practices of shale gas operators; and the adequacy and effectiveness of a sanctions regime in the event of accidents, malpractice or negligence.
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