JAPCC Joint Air & Space Power Conference 2018 Conference Guide 9 –11 October 2018 Essen, Germany Joint Air Power Competence Centre The JAPCC Conference 2018 Sponsor Recognition The JAPCC wishes to thank all sponsors for their contribution to this year’s Conference and for helping to make it a great success. Klaus Habersetzer Lieutenant General, DEU AF Executive Director, JAPCC Foreword by the Executive Director Distinguished Guests, Comrades and Colleagues, The Joint Air Power Competence Centre is pleased to welcome you to Messe Essen, Germany, for this year’s Joint Air and Space Power Conference. In accordance with our mission we contribute to the protection of NATO and its nations by providing key decision-makers effective solutions to the challenges of Air and Space Power through independent thought and analysis. The Joint Air and Space Power Conference is, therefore, the ideal strategic tool to facilitate independent discussion on current and relevant issues facing NATO and its partners. In recent years, deterrence has regularly been discussed within the dialogues of our conferences, culminating in 2017 with the theme ‘The Role of Joint Air Power in NATO Deterrence’. Consistent with this topic, this year we focus on examining the indicators of when deterrence fails. Joint Air and Space Power as the principle ‘first responder’ will form part of NATO’s answer to crisis or even war. For this reason, this year’s conference is dedicated to the topic: ‘The Fog of Day Zero – Joint Air and Space in the Vanguard’ The ‘Fog of Day Zero’ implies that there will be difficulties not only in identifying aggression directed against the Alliance, but also in determining how NATO’s Air and Space Power can or should respond appropriately to hostile actions that are recognized but remain below the threshold of armed attack or to trigger an Article V declaration. Lieutenant General, DEU AF Klaus Habersetzer Executive Director, JAPCC I am confident that your commitment throughout the conference will provide valuable insight into the most appropriate contribution of Joint Air and Space Power in the event of a NATO crisis or war situation. Your expertise and experience will be key to the success of the conference. Please do not hesitate to be contro- versial in order to stimulate lively public discussion and approach the topic from as many angles as possible. Finally, I would like to express my sincere gratitude to our moderator, keynote speakers, panel members and event organizers. Their expertise and extraordinary dedication will contribute to making this a truly valuable, thought-provoking and productive event. Thank you for joining us. I wish you a pleasant stay and many fruitful conversations, not only during the panel discussions but also during breaks with food and drink. Klaus Habersetzer Lieutenant General, DEU AF Executive Director, JAPCC 4 JAPCC | Conference Guide | 2018 | Foreword Table of Contents Foreword by the Executive Director 3 Preamble 6 Conference Itinerary 8 Conference Topics 11 JAPCC Leadership 16 Conference Moderator 19 Keynote Speakers 20 Panel Members 22 Conference Sponsors 40 Conference ‘Rules of Engagement’ 48 Chatham House Rule 49 JAPCC | Conference Guide | 2018 | Table of Contents 5 Preamble This guide has been produced to enhance your enjoyment of and contribution to the 2018 JAPCC Conference. It provides the latest information on the event’s pro- gramme, speakers and sponsors. We hope that the read-ahead material we provided was helpful in shaping your perspective on the topics proposed for discussion and provoked you to challenge some of its statements. Now, we encourage you to actively enter the debate by posing probing questions as the event unfolds. The goal of the conference is to examine the role of Joint Air Power in a complex modern security environment when a hostile actor intentionally exploits ambi- guity to avoid attribution of their actions, and keeps those actions below certain legal, detection or response thresholds. What is the role of Joint Air and Space Power as NATO’s first responder to any situation where deterrence is faltering or has failed? Following the introductory keynote speech, the conference will open with a scene- setting panel which will describe and try to define ‘Day Zero’ as well as outline the difficulties in detecting modern types of covert aggression against the Alliance and attributing them to the perpetrator. Once detected, how can these non-violent but hostile acts be assessed in relation to Articles 4 and 5 of the Washington Treaty? Panel 2 will then consider NATO’s capabilities, vulnerabilities, and challenges pre- sented by this ambiguous security environment. It will discuss the cohesiveness and responsiveness of the North Atlantic Council to rapidly take decisions and to authorize appropriate response options to recognized hostile activity that may not cross the tripwire of armed attack. Panel 3 will examine the mind-set in NATO that is the result of more than 25 years of operations in which Alliance forces have enjoyed unchallenged command of the air domain and complete freedom of movement in the logistics arena. Has this cre- ated a sense of complacency that has allowed some critical capabilities to atrophy? Has it affected our training and exercises by causing us to assume in planning that 6 JAPCC | Conference Guide | 2018 | Preamble certain conditions such as air superiority and unimpeded logistics will always be there; assumptions which many not be valid in a fight with a peer adversary with sophisticated high-end capabilities? Finally, these themes will be drawn together in Panel 4, where several senior experts will initiate a discussion about the way ahead and hopefully tease out some action- able recommendations from the rest of you. These are challenging times. We face reinvigorated military threats that are now ac- companied by non-kinetic threats to political cohesion, internal security, economic stability, and popular support for our national governments and the Alliance. How do we ensure that our Air and Space capabilities are effective tools to address these problems, or better yet deter them, especially in situations where we need to play catch-up? We thank you for choosing to join us this year and very much look forward to hearing your individual contributions to solving these challenges! JAPCC | Conference Guide | 2018 | Preamble 7 Conference Itinerary 9 October 2018 17.00 – 18.00 Registrations 18.00 – 21.00 Icebreaker 10 October 2018 08.00 – 09.00 Registrations 09.00 – 09.45 Inaugural Session with JAPCC Director’s Opening Address General Tod D. Wolters, USA AF, Commander, US Air Forces in Europe; Commander, US Air Forces Africa; Commander, Allied Air Command; Director Joint Air Power Competence Centre 09.45 – 10.15 Keynote Speech Major General Frederik Vansina, BEL AF, Commander Belgian Air Component 10.15 – 10.45 Break 10.45 – 12.15 Panel 1: The ‘Day Zero’ Threat Environment: Modern Threat Vectors, Adversary Shaping Operations and the Article V Threshold Major General Claudio Gabellini, ITA AF, Chief of Staff, Allied Air Command Colonel Dainius Guzas, LTU AF, Commander of the Lithuanian Air Force Ms Lone Kjelgaard, DNK, Senior Assistant Legal Adviser, NATO HQ 8 JAPCC | Conference Guide | 2018 | Conference Itinerary Mr Rob de Wijk, NLD, Founder and Non-executive Director of The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies Mr Roger McDermott, Senior Fellow, Department of War Studies, King’s College London 12.15 – 13.30 Director’s Luncheon and Lunch Buffet 13.30 – 15:00 Panel 2: Joint Air Power in the Vanguard of NATO’s Response: Capabilities, Vulnerabilities, and Challenges Lieutenant General David D. Thompson, USA AF, Vice Commander USAF Space Command Lieutenant General Jürgen Knappe, DEU AF, Commander Multinational Joint HQ Ulm Lieutenant General Fernando Giancotti, ITA AF, Commander ITAF Op Forces Command Rear Admiral Keith E. Blount, GBR N, Rear Admiral, Fleet Air Arm, Assistant Chief of Naval Staff (Aviation, Amphibious Capability & Carriers) Group Captain David C. Tait, GBR AF, Director National Force Protection Centre 15.00 – 15.30 Break 15.30 – 17.00 Panel 3: Does NATO Have the Required Mindset to Fight on Day Zero? Lieutenant General (ret.) Ralph J. Jodice, USA AF, Former Commander AIRCOM Izmir Major General (ret.) Roger Lane, GBR MC, Mentor, NATO Joint Warfare Center Commodore Andreas Vettos, GRC N, Commander Maritime Air NATO JAPCC | Conference Guide | 2018 | Conference Itinerary 9 Mr Saulius Gasiūnas, LTU MOD, Director, Defence Policy and Euro-Atlantic Cooperation Department Mr Diego Ruiz Palmer, USA, NATO IS, Policy Advisor to the Director, Nuclear Policy 17.00 – 17.30 Daily Wrap-Up 17.30 – 18.30 Director and VIP Tour of Industry Showcases 20.00 – 22.00 Networking Dinner and Industry Showcase 11 October 2018 08.00 – 09.00 Registrations 09.00 – 09.15 Moderator’s and Director’s Comments 09.15 – 10.00 Keynote Speech Lieutenant General David D. Thompson, USA AF, Vice Commander USAF Space Command 10.00 – 10.30 Break 10.30 – 12.00 Panel 4: How Can NATO Address Emerging Security Challenges Using Air and Space Power? General (ret.) Frank Gorenc, USA AF, Former Commander Allied Air Command Lieutenant General Ruben Servert, ESP AF, Commander CAOC Torrejón Lieutenant General Giovanni Fantuzzi, ITA AF, Commander ITAF Logistics Command Mr John Jansen, NLD, Chairman NATO Industrial Advisory Group 12.00 – 12.30 Wrap-up and Director’s Closing Remarks 12.30 – 13.00 Lunch 10 JAPCC | Conference Guide | 2018 | Conference Itinerary Conference Topics © DARPA Panel 1 The ‘Day Zero’ Threat Environment: Modern Threat Vectors, Adversary Shaping Operations and the Article V Threshold The rapid growth of cyber technologies over the past quarter century has opened myriad avenues to undermine, destabilize and attack nations and populations without the use of armed force. These hostile activities have also become more difficult to detect and to attribute to the perpetrators, making the modern security environment much more ‘foggy’ than in the past.