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ASEAN and Global Rice Situation and Outlook?

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ASEAN and Global Rice Situation and Outlook? ASEAN and Global Rice Situation and Outlook? Member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) play a major role in the global rice market. In this paper, lead author Eric Wailes, agricultural economics and agribusiness professor at the University of Arkansas, presents the current and projected status of the rice economies in ASEAN countries until 2022. The baseline situation of the rice market is generated using the Arkansas Global Rice Model, a multicountry statistical simulation. The global rice ADB Sustainable outlook is also discussed with particular attention to other Asian nations with which ASEAN as a regional association has developed official relationships—the People’s Republic of China, Japan, Development the Republic of Korea, and India and Pakistan. The outlook estimates are not predictions but provide a framework to analyze the direction of supply and demand and the management of Working Paper Series risks of rice price volatility and their causes. Through the rice model, the paper presents a useful tool to assess intermediate and longer term challenges for the ASEAN region and to determine alternative pathways for designing policy actions for sustainable rice trade. About the Asian Development Bank ADB’s vision is an Asia and Pacific region free of poverty. Its mission is to help its developing member countries reduce poverty and improve the quality of life of their people. Despite the region’s many successes, it remains home to two-thirds of the world’s poor: 1.8 billion people who live on less than $2 a day, with 903 million struggling on less than $1.25 a day. ADB is committed to reducing poverty through inclusive economic growth, environmentally sustainable growth, and regional integration. Based in Manila, ADB is owned by 67 members, including 48 from the region. Its main instruments for helping its developing member countries are policy dialogue, loans, equity investments, guarantees, grants, and technical assistance. ASEAN and Global Rice Situation and Outlook Eric J. Wailes and Eddie C. Chavez No. 22 | August 2012 Asian Development Bank 6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City 1550 Metro Manila, Philippines www.adb.org/poverty Publication Stock No. XXXXX Printed on recycled paper Printed in the Philippines 1. ADB Sustainable Development Working Paper Series ASEAN and the Global Rice Situation and Outlook Eric J. Wailes and Eddie C. Chavez The lead author holds the rank of Distinguished Professor at the No. 22 | August 2012 Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness at the University of Arkansas. Asian Development Bank 6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City 1550 Metro Manila, Philippines www.adb.org © 2012 by Asian Development Bank August 2012 Publication Stock No. WPS124956-3 The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) or its Board of Governors or the governments they represent, or of the institutions at which the author works. ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility for any consequence of their use. By making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area, or by using the term "country" in this document, ADB does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area. Unless otherwise noted, “$” refers to US dollars. This working paper series is maintained by the Regional and Sustainable Development Department. Other ADB working paper series are on economics, regional cooperation, and the ADBI Working Paper Series. Other ADB publications can be found at www.adb.org/Publications/. The purpose of the series is to disseminate the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas. The emphasis is on getting findings out quickly even if the presentation of the work is less than fully polished. Printed on recycled paper Contents Abbreviations ............................................................................................................................. iv Executive Summary ................................................................................................................... vi 1. Overview .............................................................................................................................. 1 1.1 Purpose .................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 The Arkansas Global Rice Model .............................................................................. 1 2. ASEAN Rice Outlook ............................................................................................................ 2 2.1 Rice Supply .............................................................................................................. 3 2.2 Rice Consumption .................................................................................................... 4 2.3 Rice Trade ................................................................................................................ 4 3. ASEAN Country Rice Outlook .............................................................................................. 6 3.1 Brunei Darussalam ................................................................................................... 6 3.2 Cambodia ................................................................................................................. 6 3.3 Indonesia .................................................................................................................. 7 3.4 Lao People’s Democratic Republic ........................................................................... 7 3.5 Malaysia ................................................................................................................... 8 3.6 Myanmar .................................................................................................................. 8 3.7 Philippines ................................................................................................................ 9 3.8 Singapore ................................................................................................................10 3.9 Thailand ...................................................................................................................10 3.10 Viet Nam .................................................................................................................. 11 4. Global Rice Outlook ............................................................................................................ 11 4.1 Global Rice Supply and Demand .............................................................................12 4.2 Key Non-ASEAN Rice Countries .............................................................................13 4.3 People’s Republic of China ......................................................................................13 4.4 Japan.......................................................................................................................13 4.5 Republic of Korea ....................................................................................................14 4.6 India ........................................................................................................................14 4.7 Pakistan ...................................................................................................................15 4.8 International Rice Prices ..........................................................................................15 4.9 Sources of Market Instability and Challenges for ASEAN.........................................16 5. Conclusion ..........................................................................................................................17 References ...............................................................................................................................19 Appendixes 1. An Overview of the Rice Models of the Arkansas Global Rice Economics Program ..............21 2. ASEAN Member Country Rice Supply and Utilization Tables ................................................24 3. Other Non-ASEAN Country Rice Supply and Utilization Tables……………………………….. 28 Tables and Figures Tables 1 Total Rice Supply and Utilization of 10 ASEAN Countries from 2010−2011 to 2021−2022 ....... 3 2 Global Rice Supply and Utilization from 2010−2011 to 2021−2022 .........................................12 Appendix 2 A2.1 Brunei Darussalam Rice Supply and Utilization ................................................................24 A2.2 Cambodia Rice Supply and Utilization ..............................................................................24 A2.3 Indonesia Rice Supply and Utilization ...............................................................................25 A2.4 Lao People's Democratic Republic Rice Supply and Utilization.........................................25 A2.5 Malaysia Rice Supply and Utilization ................................................................................25 A2.6 Myanmar Rice Supply and Utilization ................................................................................26 A2.7 Philippines Rice Supply and Utilization .............................................................................26 A2.8 Singapore Rice Supply and Utilization ..............................................................................26 A2.9 Thailand
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