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2021 NFL SCOUTING REPORT

JANUARY 15, 2021

2021 NFL Draft Scouting Report: QB , Alabama

*Our QB grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, leaked Wonderlic test results, etc. We will update ratings as new info becomes available.

Honestly, any report you read, pro or con, about Mac Jones’s prospects for the NFL is probably a giant bag of B*** S***. Anyone who express a ‘strong’ opinion on Jones, one way or the other, is barking at the moon.

How can anyone know just how NFL ‘good’/’worthy’ Mac Jones after watching his 2020 ? Alabama beat the living crap out of everyone they played this year, aside from a minor tussle with in the SEC Championship game…and even that wasn’t a ‘tussle’ for the offense, as Bama put up 600+ yards and 52 points. Alabama scored 50 or more points in four of its last 5 games. They scored 40 or more 11 times in 13 games on the season. Their lowest point total for the season was 31 (vs. Notre Dame). This Alabama offense was a juggernaut.

But the real question for this report is – How much, if any of the offensive explosion was due to Mac Jones’ individual talent?

I’ve watched a lot of top prospect QB tape in my life, especially in the past few years. I’ve seen carry or propel a program/offense with their elite skills…the most notable being and LSU last year. That was a shining example of a ’s talents on display achieving world domination. Watching Joe Burrow at work took your breath away.

I’ve watched plenty of Mac Jones tape in his 2020 season, and…I still have all my breath. Never lost a wisp of it. Anyone who mentions Mac Jones in the same breath as Joe Burrow should be disbarred from talking about ever again. That’s not to say Mac Jones is terrible/disqualified – but he’s no Burrow.

Maybe Jones is great…maybe Jones sucks. There’s no way to tell, because he was a game manager QB for one of the most explosive, talent-rich offenses in ’s recent history – the between Alabama and any of their opponents was ridiculous. Mac Jones was just the guy lighting the fuse at QB when it blew up (in a good way).

If you watch/study game tape of Mac Jones you’re going to see some obvious things…

1) He’s got all day to throw on almost every play. Every/any QB is going to have a better opportunity for numbers when he has all the extra time and is never pushed into feeling uncomfortable.

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2021 NFL DRAFT SCOUTING REPORT

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2) He’s got better surrounding skill player weapons than almost any QB will ever have. Jones had better weapons in 2020 than Tua Tagovailoa did in 2019…from the WR group to the backfield group.

When you put an elite cast of receiving options on the field, with elite , and give a QB all day to throw…things are going to pop for said quarterback.

Remember how great Tua was…we were all told now, what is your Tua perception?

3) The time in the pocket was really just a bonus on a minor of throws because Mac Jones mostly threw screens and swings and bubbles and quick slants…and let his elite weaponry do the rest. It’s not a testimony to how good Mac Jones is throwing 45% screen/swings/bubbles and 45% quick, first read passes on slants or deep balls…and 10% ‘other’.

Rarely/no QB has ever had such surroundings to succeed in…WRs open by a mile all over, running backs who could destroy opponents on the ground and in the short passing game, with elite blocking…plus an elite defense always giving the back in great field position.

I just stopped tracking this phenomenon…the constant screen and swing and bubble pass game with Mac Jones, because it doesn’t predict anything about his pro prospects. I only get like 3-4-5 throws a game, if I’m lucky, to to scout Jones throwing against good team under duress and having to come off his first/easy read.

Would Jones flourish as the starting QB at Vanderbilt? Maybe. But maybe he would be a total disaster not even mentioned as an NFL prospect. I don’t know because basically Mac Jones took a ‘test’ (the CFB 2020 season) and had all the answers given to him ahead of time. Maybe he would have aced the test without all those answers – but we’ll never know. That’s why I say…”How can we properly evaluate him for the pros?”

I mean, look at Tua – a god for Alabama. Look at Tua in the pros year one…couldn’t functionally complete a pass over 5-yards like a pro. That is a true statement on a guy (Tua) who destroyed the stat sheets at Alabama and had media and scouts so sure he was a god they were pushing ‘Tank for Tua’ narratives for two years…and now just one year into his NFL career, he’s already a part of (away) rumors. How is this possible?

The same underlying problem with Tua exists with Jones – a warped surrounding creating a distorted view.

I can’t even write paragraphs as to Jones’s pros and cons as a passer because how would I judge it? I’m sure several football analysts will grab one play from the season, on video, and show it as proof of how good Jones is, to go along with his lofty stats – but one cherrypicked play/throw is not reality. Anyone promoting Jones as a top QB prospect for the NFL is totally bullshitting you...because none of us can possibly know such things from his 2020 season work.

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Comparing Jones to the other top QB prospects in this class, just by watching/studying the mechanics and mannerisms…I thought Jones was the least talented and least exciting of the top names for 2020.

Justin Fields is a better pocket passer, hands …plus you have the bonus running skills.

Trey Lance is very raw, where Jones is a more polished game manager today…but Lance’s raw skills look immensely more tempting.

Zach Wilson? Please. Don’t even defame Wilson by trying to mention Jones in the same breath. is a better everything at QB than Jones, by multiples.

Trevor Lawrence? I see some of the same issues with Lawrence as with Jones, but at least Lawrence is physically much bigger and faster, and can run the ball to open up the dink-and-dunk passing game.

I wasn’t overwhelmed with , but he showed me more capability, or at least ‘as much’, as Mac Jones…and has a bigger/thicker/stronger body type and frame than Jones. I’d consider taking ahead of Mac Jones – Ehlinger has way more moxie and tools than Jones does.

Mac Jones seems like a nice kid. He’s led a life of privilege right up and through his 2020 season. Jones has had all the advantages. I’d question how much grit/toughness/moxie he has. His arm is average/fine. His height is OK, his body is kind of slender and he isn’t very quick with his feet to extend plays or make yards. What attribute can anyone point to in order to claim he’s a top 30 NFL Draft prospect?

I have no idea why a team would chase Jones with the cost of draft pick it will take. But I guess there is some hope in that no one knows really how good he is because he faced no real testing or adversity in his career/life. Maybe he is awesome? There is ‘the unknown’ for some draft value, I guess.

Mac Jones, Through the Lens of Our QB Scouting Algorithm:

There is no sense in even pointing out any number trends because the output is so ridiculous that nothing can be read into it. You take Jones’s mindboggling numbers one of 2 ways…

1) He’s the greatest QB to ever don an NCAA uniform, or…

2) You discount all of his numbers because there’s no way to really know what reality and what’s hyperinflation from his surroundings.

I mean, 80%+ completion percentage in three of his last 4 games – against mostly the top teams college football had to offer? You can achieve that by just throwing totally protected/ton of time screens,

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swings, bubbles, and slants to wide open receivers. I think I might be able to throw for 70% Comp. Pct. in this Alabama offense in 2020.

You take the numbers any way you want – greatest of all time, or ‘incomplete’ exam because we have no way of judging it properly.

The Historical QB Prospects to Whom Mac Jones Most Compares Within Our System:

It’s also impossible to do accurate comparisons of Jones to QBs of the past, because his numbers are so skewed. We normally weigh various outputs for opponent, etc., to try to balance the scales on output…but Jones made us move away from our usual weighting to try to specifically dissect his output considering the overall backdrop – we had to aggressively discount much of his work due to those benefits he was blessed with.

Our data also considers measurables and various other items that can be measured, so we have estimates on those as well (pre-Combine).

This (below) was our best projection/grading. It strikes me as apropos that a lot of MWC/WAC type, big output/performance QBs show up as system matches. Why is that so? Well, it used to be that BYU QBs played in such a passer friendly system and played such a weak schedule of Mountain West type teams – they’d put up these HUGE numbers every season but be nothing when they got into the NFL. So, after the first few flopped, everyone just dismissed the following ones in any drafts. Into the 2010s, Boise State became that dominant team and spawned some QB numbers that were eyepopping – because they were so dominant against the competition they played.

Mac Jones has that feel – a guy who we used to just discount away or be highly suspicious of on the spot because of the advantageous surroundings…like BYU, then Boise State, then Texas Tech and Hawaii QBs.

QB- LJax Last First Yr College H W Adj Adj Adj Adj Grade Rating Comp Yds per Pass Pass Pct Comp per TD Per INT 7.492 1.72 Jones Mac 2021 Alabama 74.5 214 66.7% 11.5 13.3 56.3 7.961 Beck John 2007 BYU 74.1 215 63.8% 12.9 16.1 72.6 7.673 2.02 Fales David 2013 San Jose State 74.5 220 72.9% 12.0 15.5 59.3 4.388 Moore Kellen 2012 Boise State 71.5 195 73.1% 11.4 11.5 35.1 4.906 3.72 Heinicke Taylor 2015 Old Dominion 72.4 205 63.8% 11.6 15.1 27.9 5.283 Hall Max 2010 BYU 72.6 209 62.8% 11.9 14.9 23.8

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*’LJax rating’ – new for 2021, as we re-do our grading systems to better identify/reward the spread offense QB prospects…looking for the runner-passer talents. **“Adj” = A view of adjusted college output in our system…adjusted for strength of opponent. ***A score of 8.5+ is where we see a stronger correlation of QBs going on to become NFL good-to- great. A scouting score of 9.5+ is rarefied air—higher potential for becoming great-to-elite. QBs scoring 6.0–8.0 are finding more success in the new passing era of the NFL (2014–on). Depending upon the system and surrounding weapons, a 6.0–8.0 rated QB can do fine in today’s NFL—with the right circumstances…but they are not ‘the next ’ guys, just NFL-useful guys.

2021 NFL Draft Outlook:

With the National Championship run fresh in everyone’s mind…Jones is a 1st-round projection for almost every early ranker. The hype is strong. I think the NFL will come to its senses with more scouting time, and Jones will drop precipitously in the draft rankings…out of the 1st-round and into the 2nd/3rd- round. However, the Alabama pull is still so alluring for NFL Draft zombies that he might just stay in the 1st-round…and the ‘Alabama’ machine will be flexing its muscle/working its fiscal magic to try and get Jones into the 1st-round as well. Still, I’ll bet he falls to at least a 2nd-round projection/rating across the country by March 2020.

If I were an NFL GM, I wouldn’t waste my time trying to wonder if a 6’2-3”/210+ Alabama-coddled QB is secretly ‘great’. I’ll take my chances with other available QBs or just sign quality free agents and wait until next year’s draft.

NFL Outlook:

Who knows? My guess is – falls in the draft, comes into a team as a backup, plays really boring preseason football for a couple of years and is forgotten as the hype dies off and he’s just seen as a serviceable hand at best or a bust at worst. I feel like a or type event is headed our way here with Jones, although he is a more competent QB than either of them were.

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2021 NFL DRAFT SCOUTING REPORT

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Copyright Statement

Copyright at date and time signed below by R.C. Fischer

All rights reserved. All content is for entertainment purposes only and TFA is not responsible or liable for personal adverse outcomes nor are any game results or forecasting guaranteed. Past results do not predict future outcomes. We are not held liable for any personal loses incurred. We are solely here to produce and provide content for recreational purposes. No part of this publication may be reproduced, distributed, or transmitted in any form or by any means, including photocopying, recording, or other electronic or mechanical methods, without the prior written permission of the publisher, except in the case of brief quotations embodied in critical reviews and certain other noncommercial uses permitted by copyright law. For permission requests, email the publisher at [email protected]

Signature______Date______1/15/2021

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