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Editor's Corner November 3, 2010 by Peter Coyle

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Editor's Corner November 3, 2010 by Peter Coyle Editor's Corner November 3, 2010 by Peter Coyle Minnesota's political landscape has been altered very dramatically based on yesterday's election results, though not exactly in the manner most pundits had expected. As of this writing, Mark Dayton holds a narrow lead (less than 1 percent) over Tom Emmer in the race for governor of Minnesota. More dramatic is the fact that Republicans handily won control of both the House and Senate in Minnesota. Republicans in the Minnesota legislature will ride a roller-coaster of emotions over the next day or two, but very quickly they will need to come to grips with the reality that while their political fortunes have changed, the dire economic conditions confronting the state and nation have not. It remains necessary to resolve a nearly $6 billion state budget deficit for the next biennium; regardless of the outcome in the governor's race, this financial quagmire will need to be resolved with no tax increases and no help from their Democrat counterparts. We will be watching very closely to see who emerges as leaders of the various party caucuses in the House and Senate; it will be especially interesting to see who emerges as chairs of the multiple committees in the House and Senate. The results in Minnesota were mirrored to a great extent by the national elections in which Republicans regained control of the House of Representatives after ceding it to the Democrats four years ago. While control of the Senate remains with the Democrats, Republicans picked up at least 6 seats. All but one congressional incumbent in Minnesota was reelected, the very notable exception being the ouster of Cong. Jim Oberstar by political newcomer, Chip Cravaack. We'll be tracking the election results along with changes in leadership resulting from the elections in the coming days and will provide an update in the coming weeks. Enjoy this Special Edition of CapitolWatch! Minnesota Governor's Race Too Close to Call With all precincts accounted for, the race for governor of Minnesota is too close to call: Mark Dayton holds a narrow lead of approximately 9,000 votes over Tom Emmer out of 2,099,796 votes cast in yesterday's election. Given the vote margin and absent a concession by Emmer, state law requires a recount, reprising the recount battle of two years ago in the race for U.S. Senate between Al Franken and Norm Coleman. Third-party challenger Tom Horner garnered support from approximately 12 percent of those who voted for governor. Emmer's current second-place finish is a stark contrast to the otherwise dramatic showing of his Republican colleagues in the Minnesota legislature. The vote tallies followed a fairly predictable pattern for Minnesota, with Dayton winning handlily in the urban counties of Hennepin and Ramsey and on the Iron Range. Tom Emmer won all of the suburban and most of the central, western and southern rural counties. The difference in the election (aside from that of Tom Horner's involvement in it) may well be Olmsted County. In 2006, Governor Tim Pawlenty carried the county over his Democrat challenger by nearly 16%; this time, Emmer's margin over Mark Dayton was half that, approximately 8 percent. The mandatory recount will not commence for a few days while all the results around the state are verified. Thankfully (or not) Minnesota has vast experience in managing recounts, having only just concluded a hotly-contested recount for the U.S. Senate seat won by Al Franken. (That recount stretched over about five months with multiple challenges that went to the Minnesota Supreme Court). There is no reason to assume that this recount process won't follow the same path as did the Franken-Coleman recount battle, though the disputed votes in that election challenge ultimately involved less than 1,000 ballots, well below the margin in the Dayton- Emmer race. Published by Larkin Hoffman Daly & Lindgren Ltd. 2010 Election Edition Update--November 03, 2010 page 2 Minnesota Legislature Undergoes Dramatic Leadership Change While a possible change in political control of the Minnesota House of Representatives had been speculated about for the past several months, nobody thought it likely that the leadership of the Minnesota Senate would shift from the Democrats to the Republicans. And, yet, that is the result of yesterday's elections in Minnesota. Republican legislators across Minnesota (together with their newly-elected Republican colleagues) are still coming to grips with their new-found leadership responsibilities. They will gather in St. Paul in the next few days to celebrate their success and pick their caucus leadership, including the new Speaker of the House and Senate Majority Leader. We are assuming that Rep. Kurt Zellers from Maple Grove will be selected by his colleagues to be the next Speaker; the interesting races in that body will be for majority leader and minority leader, respectively. In the Senate, Senator Dave Senjem from Rochester deserves credit for his caucuses success at the polls, but that will not likely assure his election as Senate Majority Leader. He may face a challenge from one or more members of his party, including Sen. Amy Koch from Buffalo; she led the Senate Republican election effort this year. Geoff Michel (Edina) or Chris Gerlach (Apple Valley) could also emerge as challengers. Along with controlling the legislature comes the daunting challenge of selecting committee chairs and planning for a 2011 legislative session that will be dominated by budget pressures. While the Republicans are celebrating their success at the polls, the responsibility to simultaneously field a new leadership team and develop and pass a budget with no help from Democrats is no small task. Moreover, assuming Mark Dayton is ultimately successful in the recount, Republicans have to find a way to enact a budget that he will sign. Neither the House nor Senate have Republican majorities that can override a veto. On a more mundane, logistical level, the election results mean that every state legislator will have an office change, literally. Senate Republicans will move their offices from the State Office Building to the State Capitol, displacing Senate Democrats who, for the most part, have never served in the minority (at least since partisan labels have been used by legislators). Senate Democrats will take the offices vacated by their Republican counterparts. Likewise, House Republicans will occupy the top floors of the State Office Building, displacing their Democrat counterparts who will be relocated to the lower floors of the State Office Building. We will provide a complete overview of the leadership of the Minnesota House and Senate in the coming weeks as those decisions are made. Published by Larkin Hoffman Daly & Lindgren Ltd. 2010 Election Edition Update--November 03, 2010 page 3 National Elections Trigger Major Shift in Congressional Leadership As in Minnesota, national Republicans scored a major victory by reclaiming majority status in the U.S. House of Representatives. In the U.S. Senate, Democrats retained their majority status, but the margin has narrowed to only a couple of seats. These combined changes ensure that President Barack Obama will have a more difficult time advancing his agenda than was the case in the last two years. In Minnesota, all but one congressional incumbent was re-elected; notably, long-time congressional Democrat Jim Oberstar (Duluth) was defeated by newcomer Chip Cravaack, a retired military veteran. Oberstar had served in the House for 36 years and was most recently chair of a powerful transportation funding committee. Nonetheless, the anti-incumbent winds blew strongly in his district, aided by a perception that he was detached from local voters and their concerns about the economy. Congressman John Boehner (R-Ohio) appears likely to be the new Speaker of the House; while Senator Harry Reid withstood an election challenge in Nevada, it is unclear whether he will remain as leader of his majority caucus. Some of his colleagues may feel that it is necessary (even essential) to have a new majority leader to counter the strong personality of John Boehner. Leadership elections for the U.S. House and Senate will take place later this week. Published by Larkin Hoffman Daly & Lindgren Ltd. 2010 Election Edition Update--November 03, 2010 page 4 Additional Links and Information Election Results To view election results visit the Office of the Secretary of State webpage. Directory of Newly Elected Officials A directory of the newly elected members to the Minnesota House of Representatives is expected to be available on the House website at www.house.mn today. Hard copies should be available late in the day, Nov. 4, in room 175 State Office Building. The 2010 Election Directory will feature biographical and contact information for the members-elect. As their State Office Building offices and contact numbers are assigned, the directory will be updated with this information. Contact Our Government Relations Attorneys: Peter J. Coyle Email 952-896-3214 Peder A. Larson Email 952-896-3257 Marnie S. Moore Email 952-896-3377 Julie L. Perrus Email 952-896-3308 Gerald L. Seck Email 952-896-3205 Published by Larkin Hoffman Daly & Lindgren Ltd. 2010 Election Edition Update--November 03, 2010 page 5.
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