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2018 Election Preview

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2018 Election Preview 2018 Election Preview Introduction With the 2018 Midterm Election just over a week away, and more information than ever swirling around the candidates, the Medical Alley Association Government Relations team is here to help you cut through the noise. We have put together an overview of the races you need to know about here in Minnesota, but please note: This preview does not try to predict the outcome of these races. Rather, it provides historical context and attempts to give you a better understanding of the races’ backgrounds heading into Election Day. After the election, look for a recap of results, along with what they could mean for MAA members and their likely impact on public policy for the next two years. Overview Minnesota is like most states in that, although the election between Presidential elections is colloquially known as the midterm election, every state-level, statewide office is on the ballot, as is every congressional and state House seat. What makes this election unique is that both U.S. Senate seats are up, as is control of the state Senate. That makes this so-called “off-year election” action-packed. This preview will touch on three of the state-level statewide offices: Governor/Lt. Governor, Attorney General, and Secretary of State, as well as both U.S. Senate elections. It will also take a look at competitive congressional matchups and key races in the state Legislature, where control of both the House and the Senate is up for grabs. A quick index of recent electoral results for each race is located at the end of the preview. Minnesota State-Level Statewide Offices Minnesota Governor & Lt. Governor Incumbent: Open (Mark Dayton & Michelle Fischbach) DFL: Tim Walz & Peggy Flanagan GOP: Jeff Johnson & Donna Bergstrom 2014 Results Votes Percent DFL Mark Dayton 989,113 50.07% GOP Jeff Johnson 879,257 44.51% 2010 Results Votes Percent DFL Mark Dayton 919,232 43.63% GOP Tom Emmer 910,462 43.21% IND Tom Horner 251,487 11.94% Following a bruising primary campaign for both candidates, the gubernatorial race started out a bit sleepy, but it has picked up steam in recent weeks. There have been lively debates between both Walz and Johnson and between Flanagan and Bergstrom, where each took pointed approaches to differentiating themselves – a significant change from early in the race. Recent polling shows Walz leading Johnson by six points. Each candidate’s winning strategy is no secret. Walz and Flanagan need to drive turnout in the seven- county metro area (primarily within Minneapolis and St. Paul), capitalize on Walz’s name ID and popularity in his old Congressional District (CD1), and minimize losses in the rest of the state. Johnson and Bergstrom need to drive up the margins in CD 6, 7, and 8, try to drive down Walz and Flanagan’s numbers in CD1, and make sure Republican voters in the Metro area show up and vote red. Minnesota Gubernatorial races have historically been close elections with only one candidate (Dayton in 2014) receiving more than 50 percent of the vote since 1994. No race has been decided by more than eight points during that same time frame. If elected, Walz would be the first resident of Greater Minnesota elected Governor since 1991. His election would also mark the first time the DFL party has ever held the Minnesota Governor’s office for more than eight consecutive years. Minnesota Attorney General Incumbent: Open (Lori Swanson) DFL: Keith Ellison GOP: Doug Wardlow 2014 Results Votes Percent DFL Lori Swanson 1,014,714 52.60% GOP Scott Newman 752,543 39.01% 2010 Results Votes Percent DFL Lori Swanson 1,075,536 52.90% GOP Chris Barden 839,033 41.27% The Minnesota Attorney General’s office has been held by a member of the DFL party since 1971 – nearly fifty consecutive years. After not receiving the endorsement of the DFL Party in May (it went to Matt Pelikan), Lori Swanson entered the Governor’s race, leaving the Attorney General’s office open. Several candidates jumped in on the DFL side, but Congressman Keith Ellison emerged with a big win on primary night. Doug Wardlow was the endorsed GOP candidate in the primary and, while he faced multiple challengers, easily dispatched them to win the nomination. This race typically flies under the radar. Due to allegations against Ellison, however, this year it has been more noteworthy, and what the candidates have said and done is under extreme scrutiny. Most polls indicate this is a close race and likely gives Republicans their best chance to win a statewide race in Minnesota since 2006. A recent poll from the Star Tribune & MPR found Wardlow ahead by seven points. Minnesota Secretary of State Incumbent: Steve Simon DFL: Steve Simon GOP: John Sterling Howe 2014 Results Votes Percent DFL Steve Simon 901,450 47.04% GOP Dan Severson 879,022 45.87% 2010 Results Votes Percent DFL Mark Ritchie 999,382 49.10% GOP Dan Severson 928,913 45.64% Current Secretary of State Steve Simon is running for a second term this fall. Since Dan Severson opted to not run for a third time, former State Senator John Howe stepped up with a bid. This race can be somewhat of a benchmark race, in that, since neither candidate typically has the money to cut through the noise of other races, it tends to more accurately reflect the partisan makeup of those who vote in it. That is something to keep an eye on as the early returns come in. United State Senate Races Class 1 Senate Seat: Term to expire in 2024 Incumbent: Amy Klobuchar DFL: Amy Klobuchar GOP: Jim Newberger 2012 Results Votes Percent DFL Amy Klobuchar 1,854,595 65.23% GOP Kurt Bills 867,974 30.53% 2018 Fundraising Raised Cash on Hand DFL Amy Klobuchar $9,596,258.00 $5,900,934 GOP Jim Newberger $175,706.00 $30,047 Senator Amy Klobuchar is seeking her third term in the United States Senate; she has won her previous two elections by significant margins. Sen. Klobuchar has long been a champion of the health technology industry and helped ensure the suspension of the Medical Device Excise Tax on two occasions. State Representative Jim Newberger is making his first bid for statewide office. He is a three-term state legislator and paramedic from Becker, Minnesota. He has captured more than 57 percent of the vote in each of his three elections to the Minnesota House of Representatives. Recent polling shows Sen. Klobuchar with a comfortable lead. Class 2 Senate Seat, Special Election: Term to expire in 2021 Incumbent: Tina Smith (appointed in 2018) DFL: Tina Smith GOP: Karin Housley 2014 Results Votes Percent DFL Al Franken 1,053,205 53.15% GOP Mike McFadden 850,227 42.91% 2018 Fundraising Raised Cash on Hand DFL Tina Smith $7,365,772.00 $1,902,475 GOP Karin Housley $3,255,072.00 $568,191 Due to former Senator Al Franken’s resignation earlier this year, Minnesota has two U.S. Senate elections on the ballot. Governor Mark Dayton appointed his Lt. Governor, Tina Smith, to fill the open Senate seat in January. The winner of this special election will serve out the remainder of the original term that expires in 2021. This Senate seat will again be on the ballot in 2020 for the full six-year term. This is Senator Tina Smith’s first campaign as the headlining candidate (she ran for Lt. Governor in 2014). She has significant experience as an operative and staffer on various statewide campaigns and was chief of staff to Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Ryback and Governor Mark Dayton. Tina has a background in marketing and previously worked at General Mills as well as starting her own business. State Senator Karin Housley is also making her first attempt as the headlining candidate for statewide office (she ran for Lt. Governor with Scott Honour in the GOP primary in 2014). She was first elected to the state Senate in 2012 and currently serves as the chair of the Aging & Long-Term Care Policy committee in that body. Karin has experience in the communications field and as an entrepreneur. A recent poll shows Senator Smith up six points on state Senator Housley. Congressional Races First Congressional District Incumbent: Open (Tim Walz) DFL: Dan Feehan GOP: Jim Hagedorn 2016 Results Candidate Votes Percent Candidate Votes Percent DFL Tim Walz 169,074 50.34% Hillary Clinton 130,831 38.06% GOP Jim Hagedorn 166,526 49.58% Donald Trump 181,647 52.85% 2014 Results Candidate Votes Percent Candidate Votes Percent DFL Tim Walz 122,851 54.19% Mark Dayton 103,235 45.47% GOP Jim Hagedorn 103,536 45.67% Jeff Johnson 109,803 48.36% 2018 Fundraising Candidate Raised Cash on Hand DFL Dan Feehan $3,120,040 $1,447,884 GOP Jim Hagedorn $1,172,513 $275,426 The First Congressional district spans the entire length of Minnesota’s southern border. Major cities include Rochester, Mankato, Austin, Worthington, and Marshall. Congressman Tim Walz has held this seat since his upset of Gil Gutknecht in 2006. Donald Trump comfortably won this district in 2016 and Johnson edged out Dayton here in 2014. Dan Feehan is making his first run for public office. He grew up in Red Wing and served two tours of duty in Iraq. He moved back to Minnesota after serving as acting Assistant Secretary of Defense in the Pentagon. Jim Hagedorn is making his third attempt to capture this seat. He grew up near Truman and his father was elected to Congress (in what was then the 2nd district) in 1974.
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