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Enhancing Assessments of Space Mission Assurance for More Information on This Publication, Visit C O R P O R A T I O N BRIEN ALKIRE, YOOL KIM, MATTHEW BERRY, DAVID BLANCETT, JAMES DIMAROGONAS, NIRAJ INAMDAR, SHERRILL LINGEL, NICHOLAS MARTIN, GEORGE NACOUZI, JOEL B. PREDD, WILLIAM A. WILLIAMS Enhancing Assessments of Space Mission Assurance For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR2948 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 978-1-9774-0489-3 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2020 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface It has become increasingly clear over the past two decades that warfare could extend to space and that space is no longer a benign domain. The national security space community has taken steps to enhance space mission assurance in response. This has led to an increase in demand for assessments of space mission assurance for decision support to acquisition and operations. This report describes decisionmaker needs for space mission assurance assessments, challenges for conducting these assessments, the shortfalls that could result from the challenges, and options for addressing the shortfalls. This project, titled “A Methodology for Defining a Resilient Space Enterprise in Support of the Joint Force,” was sponsored by the Director of Space Programs, Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Air Force for Acquisition (SAF/AQS) and was performed within the Force Modernization and Employment Program of RAND Project AIR FORCE. The research was conducted between October 2017 and August 2018, and this report does not reflect changes beyond those dates. The report should be of interest to Air Force analysts and decisionmakers, the national security space community, and joint force planners. RAND Project AIR FORCE RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF), a division of the RAND Corporation, is the U.S. Air Force’s federally funded research and development center for studies and analyses. PAF provides the Air Force with independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the development, employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future air, space, and cyber forces. Research is conducted in four programs: Strategy and Doctrine; Force Modernization and Employment; Manpower, Personnel, and Training; and Resource Management. Additional information about PAF is available on our website: www.rand.org/paf/ This report documents work originally shared with the U.S. Air Force on October 3, 2018. The draft report, issued on September 24, 2018, was reviewed by formal peer reviewers and U.S. Air Force subject-matter experts. iii Contents Preface ............................................................................................................................................ iii Figures............................................................................................................................................ vi Tables ............................................................................................................................................ vii Summary ...................................................................................................................................... viii Acknowledgments .......................................................................................................................... xi Abbreviations ................................................................................................................................ xii 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 1 Research Questions ................................................................................................................................... 1 Limitations of the Research ...................................................................................................................... 2 Methodology ............................................................................................................................................. 2 Report Outline .......................................................................................................................................... 4 2. Decisionmaker Needs for SMA Assessments ............................................................................. 6 Acquisition Decision Types That Need SMA Assessments ..................................................................... 6 Role of SMA Assessments for the Operational Community .................................................................. 11 Summary ................................................................................................................................................. 11 3. Existing Analytic Methods ....................................................................................................... 13 Analytic Methods Currently Used for SMA Assessments ..................................................................... 13 Analytic Methods for Assessing Air Base Resilience ............................................................................ 24 Summary ................................................................................................................................................. 28 4. Shortfalls ................................................................................................................................... 29 Shortfall 1: Lack of Established Baseline and Uncertainty Bounds for Inputs and Assumptions Needed for SMA Assessments ......................................................................................................... 29 Shortfall 2: Lack of Available Methods for Assessing Social-Behavioral Aspects of SMA Assessments ..................................................................................................................................... 31 Shortfall 3: Lack of SMA Assessments Linking Space to Terrestrial Warfighting Operations ............. 33 Shortfall 4: Lack of SMA Assessments Spanning Multiple Mission Areas ........................................... 34 Summary ................................................................................................................................................. 34 5. Ways to Address the Shortfalls ................................................................................................. 35 Joint Space Warfighting Forum .............................................................................................................. 35 Enhance Interagency Information-Sharing ............................................................................................. 36 Incentivize Innovation and Acceleration in Progress ............................................................................. 36 Sensitivity Analyses ............................................................................................................................... 37 Decisionmaking Under Uncertainty and RDM Methods ....................................................................... 37 Assessing Implications of Space Deterrence for SMA Assessments ..................................................... 40 Wargaming ............................................................................................................................................. 44 Campaign Outcome–Guided Mission-Level Analysis ........................................................................... 45 6. Summary and Conclusions ....................................................................................................... 50 iv Appendix A. Example Application of an RDM Methodology to an SMA Assessment ............... 53 Appendix B. Sensitivity Analysis with Application to SMA Assessments .................................. 69 Appendix C. Example Application of Campaign Outcome–Guided Mission-Level Analysis to an SMA Assessment ........................................................................................................... 84 Appendix D. A Perspective on Explicit and Tacit Boundaries for Information-Sharing and Examples ................................................................................................................................. 89 References ..................................................................................................................................... 97 v Figures Figure 1.1. Methodology for
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