Cover1111-fin_AA Template copy 10/21/11 10:40 AM Page 1 10 AMERICA AEROSPACE November 2011 NOVEBER 2011 NOVEBER Vigilance from above Space and risk analysis paralysis Supply chain globalization grows more complex A PUBLICATION OF THE AMERICAN INSTITUTE OF AERONAUTICS AND ASTRONAUTICS 7” This document has text at the very edge of the live area. 10” If this is incorrect, please check large-ad-guides-margin.pdf TOC.NOV2011_AA Template 10/18/11 11:11 AM Page 1 Page 8 November 2011 DEPARTMENTS EDITORIAL 3 A price too high. Page 10 INTERNATIONAL BEAT 4 Supply chain globalization grows more complex. WASHINGTON WATCH 8 Feuding, fighters, and the future. THE VIEW FROM HERE 10 Preparing NASA’s astronauts for the High Frontier. AIRCRAFT UPDATE 14 Defense cuts set to impact aircraft. Page 14 ENGINEERING NOTEBOOK 18 From ice to flameout. OUT OF THE PAST 36 CAREER OPPORTUNITIES 39 FEATURES VIGILANCE FROM ABOVE: THE NRO AT 50 20 Page 18 Once cloaked in secrecy, the NRO is marking a half-century of vital contributions to the peace and security of the U.S. and its allies. by James W. Canan VIEWPOINT: SPACE AND RISK ANALYSIS PARALYSIS 29 Acknowledging the possibility of failure is the only way to break the cycle of having programs that are very late and deeply over budget. by Col. Fred G. Kennedy BULLETIN AIAA Meeting Schedule B2 AIAA Courses and Training Program B4 AIAA News B5 Page 29 Meeting Program B13 COVER Once an agency so secret that its very existence was not acknowledged, the National Reconnaissance Office has marked its 50th anniversary by drawing the curtains back—a bit. Turn to page 20 to learn about the NRO’s history. Aerospace America (ISSN 0740-722X) is published monthly, except August, by the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Inc. at 1801 Alexander Bell Drive, Reston, Va. 20191-4344 [703/264-7500]. Subscription rate is 50% of dues for AIAA members (and is not deductible therefrom). Nonmember subscription price: U.S. and Canada, $163, foreign, $200. Single copies $20 each. Postmaster: Send address changes and subscription orders to address above, attention AIAA Customer Service, 703/264-7500. Periodical postage paid at Herndon, VA, and at additional mailing offices. Copyright © 2011 by the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Inc., all rights reserved. The name Aerospace America is registered by the AIAA in the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office. 40,000 copies of this issue printed. This is Volume 49, No. 10. Support the AIAA Foundation CFC #53057 Impact, Inspire, Invest Our Vision A simple, compelling philosophy drives our commitment to education in science, technology, engineering, and math: Make it exciting, make it empowering, and make it fun. e AIAA Foundation: Advances STEM education through K–12 education programs, reaching more than 10,000 students each year. Prepares students for the workforce with merit-based scholarships and annual student conferences worldwide. Promotes professional achievement through our competitive honors and awards programs for industry professionals and educators. Fosters innovation as students and professionals participate in design competitions, paper competitions, and peer presentations. www.aiaafoundation.org 11-0638 aa ad.indd 1 9/9/11 2:15 PM edit.november_AA Template 10/18/11 11:13 AM Page 1 ® is a publication of the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics Elaine J. Camhi Editor-in-Chief Patricia Jefferson Associate Editor Greg Wilson Production Editor Jerry Grey, Editor-at-Large A price too high Christine Williams, Editor AIAA Bulletin Correspondents As Atlantis touched down at Kennedy Space Center on July 21, STS-135, and Robert F. Dorr, Washington the U.S. space shuttle program, came to an end. For months before that flight, Philip Butterworth-Hayes, Europe and ever since, conversations and often heated debate about the end of the Michael Westlake, Hong Kong nation’s human space transportation system, and what it means for our future Contributing Writers in space, have held the attention of those commited to seeing the nation re- Richard Aboulafia, James W. Canan, main in space beyond the lifetime of the international space station. Marco Cáceres, Craig Covault, Leonard Word of the final go for developing the heavy-lift SLS, or space launch sys- David, Philip Finnegan, Edward tem, brought its own set of questions, as many argued that it was a ‘rocket Goldstein, Tom Jones, James Oberg, without a destination.’ Continuation of work on the Orion multipurpose crew David Rockwell, J.R. Wilson vehicle did little to assuage those angry over either the cancellation of the Fitzgerald Art & Design Constellation program or a ‘premature’ standdown of the shuttle. Art Direction and Design But a possibly larger issue looms over all of this discussion. As the Constel- lation program received its cancellation notice and it began to be dismantled, Brian D. Dailey, President and work started on preparing the shuttles for their new role as museum arti- Robert S. Dickman, Publisher facts, the agency’s most valuable asset was also being dispersed. Craig Byl, Manufacturing and Distribution A day after the shuttle touched down for the last time, 2,800 workers in the STEERING COMMITTEE area were to receive layoff notices. In the last few months, hundreds of others Col. Neal Barlow, USAF Academy; Michael have been laid off, both at NASA centers and at contractors such as ULA. B. Bragg, University of Illinois; Carol Cash, These layoffs cross all levels of skills and capabilities, and include designers, Carol Cash & Associates; Basil Hassan, Sandia; engineers, scientists, and technicians. Mark Lewis, University of Maryland, Robert At NASA Headquarters, some at the top levels of management are opting E. Lindberg, National Institute of Aerospace; Mark S. Maurice, AFOSR; Merri Sanchez, for retirement or employment elsewhere. In the last several months, Jon Sierra Nevada; Vigor Yang, Georgia Institute Morse, director of the Science Mission Directorate’s Astrophysics Division; of Technology; Susan X. Ying; Boeing Doug Cooke, associate administrator for the Exploration Systems Mission Directorate; his deputy Laurie Leshin; and Bryan O’Connor, chief of safety EDITORIAL BOARD and mission assurance, have announced their departure. Ned Allen, Jean-Michel Contant, When Chief Technologist Bobby Braun resigned, effective Septemer 30, he Eugene Covert, L.S. “Skip” Fletcher, Michael Francis, Cam Martin, had held the position less that two years. In announcing his departure, he Don Richardson, Douglas Yazell said, “While…change is difficult, I believe that the more desperately an organ- ization tries to hold on to today, the more likely it is that this same organiza- ADVERTISING tion will not have a tomorrow. Please remember that the future starts today.” National Display and Classified: But our ‘tomorrow’ in space depends not only on having a clear vision of Robert Silverstein, 240.498.9674 where we want to go and how to get there. If Edison is right, genius is one [email protected] West Coast Display: Greg Cruse, percent inspiration, ninety-nine percent perspiration. The job cannot be done 949.361.1870 / [email protected] by vision alone. The resignations and layoffs at NASA and its contractors may have effects Ross B. Garelick Bell Business Manager far beyond today. As this highly skilled workforce disperses; as astronauts depart, believing fewer opportunities exist to do what they were trained for, Send materials to Craig Byl, AIAA, 1801 there will be a void that will be difficult to fill when the next, inevitable, Alexander Bell Drive, Suite 500, Reston, VA 20191-4344. Changes of address should be uptick in space activities comes. Those in school now, who once dreamed sent by e-mail at [email protected], or by fax of exploring the high frontier, may now set their sights on other goals. And at 703.264.7606. those who still cling to their dreams may find the road a bit rockier, as the Send correspondence to [email protected]. mentors who are so valuable to those just beginning the journey will be harder and harder to find. November 2011, Vol. 49, No. 10 When the loss is talent, not treasure, the price is too high. Elaine Camhi Editor-in-Chief BEATlayout1011_Layout 1 10/18/11 11:14 AM Page 2 Supply chain globalization grows more complex THE WORLD’S AEROSPACE INDUSTRY IS The complexity of new programs cesses, to ensure the key technologies entering a new phase of globalization. such as the Boeing 787 and Airbus 380 that will deliver the 18% performance Instead of seeking new partners down makes them vulnerable to capacity improvement over current aircraft types the supply chain with the lowest pos- and technology problems in the dis- remain close to home. sible wage rates, airframe and engine tant supply chain. This has added to manufacturers are now looking closer the attractiveness of keeping as much Who benefits to home for partners that can add work as possible close to home. The beneficiaries of this new phase in value. They are concentrating on in- According to a report on global lo- outsourcing so far have been mature creasing the productivity—and reduc- gistical issues (“Trends in Global Man- aerospace economies, not the new- ing the numbers—of their key legacy ufacturing, Goods Movement and Con- comers. “The reason why the U.K. has suppliers, and looking to shorten their sumption, and Their Effect on the been successful in improving produc- supply chain links. The secret to build- Growth of United States Ports and Dis- tivity in recent years has been that we ing profitable and complex aircraft, it tribution”), issued recently by the U.S. outsourced a great deal of this work seems, is to simplify the production Commercial Real Estate Development some time ago,” explains Matthew process.