Florida Next Generation Aircraft Study
Prepared for:
Florida Department of Transportation
August 2008
Prepared by:
WILBUR SMITH ASSOCIATES, INC.
Table of Contents
Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Table of Contents
Study Introduction Introduction...... Introduction-1 New Large Aircraft...... Introduction-2 Very Light Jets...... Introduction-3 Study Purpose ...... Introduction-3 Study Tasks...... Introduction-4 Task 1: Literature Review...... Introduction-4 Task 2: Aircraft Characterization...... Introduction-4 Task 3: Airport Facility and Service Requirements...... Introduction-5 Task 4: Readiness of Florida Airports ...... Introduction-5 Task 5: Activity Outlook for Next Generation Aircraft Activity in Florida...... Introduction-6 Task 6: Economic Impact Estimate ...... Introduction-6 Introduction Summary ...... Introduction-6
Task I: Literature Review Introduction...... I-1 Reports ...... I-2 NLA Reports...... I-2 Study Purpose...... I-2 New Large Aircraft Characteristics ...... I-3 Impact on Airport Design ...... I-4 Costs to Airports for Introducing New Large Aircraft ...... I-4 Study Conclusions and Recommendations...... I-4 Summary Observations...... I-5 Scope and Methodology ...... I-5 Unresolved issues...... I-5 Modification of Standards...... I-5 Summary Observations...... I-5 Airbus A380...... I-6 FAA Regulations/Compliance...... I-6 Cost Estimates...... I-6 Summary Observations...... I-7 Airbus A380...... I-7 Safety Issues...... I-7 Capacity Issues...... I-8 Airbus Comments ...... I-8 Summary Observations...... I-8 VLJ Reports...... I-9 Small Aircraft Transportation System (SATS)...... I-9 Study Purpose...... I-9 Study Results...... I-10 Summary Observations...... I-11 Next Generation Air Transportation System (NGATS) ...... I-11 Study Purpose...... I-12
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Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Table of Contents
Background...... I-12 Classification System...... I-12 Summary Observations...... I-12 Very Light Jet Forecasts ...... I-13 Assumptions Influencing VLJ Forecasts ...... I-13 Usage and Capacity Concerns ...... I-13 Summary Observations...... I-14 Articles...... I-14 NLA Related Articles ...... I-14 VLJ Related Articles...... I-16 Literature Review Summary...... I-19
Task II: Aircraft Characteristics Introduction...... II-1 New Large Aircraft Characteristics ...... II-2 Physical Characteristics ...... II-3 Operational Characteristics...... II-5 Orders...... II-7 NLA Concluding Remarks ...... II-8 Very Light Jet Characteristics...... II-9 VLJ Anticipated Usage...... II-13 Physical Characteristics ...... II-13 Operational Characteristics...... II-14 Orders...... II-17 Aircraft Characterization Summary...... II-19
Task III: Facility Requirements Introduction...... III-1 NLA Facility Requirements...... III-1 NLA Requirements ...... III-2 Airfield Requirements...... III-3 Runway Length...... III-3 Runway Width ...... III-3 Separation Standards...... III-3 Pavement Strength...... III-4 Apron Requirements ...... III-4 Terminal Requirements...... III-4 Ground Handling Equipment Requirements...... III-5 Cargo Requirements...... III-5 ARFF Requirements ...... III-5 VLJ Facility Requirements ...... III-8 VLJ Requirements ...... III-8 Airfield Requirements...... III-9 Airfield Support Facility Requirements...... III-11 Apron/Hangar Requirements...... III-12
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Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Table of Contents
Terminal Requirements...... III-12 Fuel Requirements ...... III-12 Other Services...... III-12 Facility Requirements Summary...... III-13
Task IV: Florida Airport Readiness Introduction...... IV-1 New Large Aircraft...... IV-2 A380 Receiver Airports ...... IV-2 Miami International Airport (MIA) ...... IV-2 Orlando International Airport (MCO) ...... IV-3 A380 Diversion Airports...... IV-4 Other NLA Airports...... IV-4 NLA Aircraft Models, Specifications, and Competition ...... IV-6 Current Florida Air Carriers with NLA Orders ...... IV-7 Current International Destinations Served from Florida ...... IV-8 Current Long-Haul Domestic Destinations Served from Florida...... IV-11 Load Factor Considerations...... IV-12 High Probability International NLA Routes...... IV-12 Other International NLA Routes...... IV-13 Long-term International NLA Opportunities...... IV-14 High Probability Long-Haul Domestic Routes...... IV-16 High-Density Short-Haul Domestic Routes...... IV-17 Conclusions...... IV-18 Cost Estimates Related to NLA Operations...... IV-18 Miami International Airport NLA Project Cost Summary ...... IV-18 Orlando International Airport NLA Project Cost Summary...... IV-19 Tampa International Airport NLA Project Cost Summary...... IV-19 VLJ Section Very Light Jet Service Market Characteristics ...... IV-21 Historical Losses of In-State Service...... IV-21 Overall Trends in Weekly Frequencies...... IV-21 Individual Market/Route Trends...... IV-22 Service Withdrawals ...... IV-26 VLJ Readiness Assessment...... IV-26 Florida Airport Readiness Summary ...... IV-36
Task V: Activity Outlook Introduction...... V-1 New Large Aircraft Outlook...... V-3 Current Weekly Large Aircraft Operations ...... V-3 Summary of Worldwide NLA Forecasts ...... V-5 Low NLA Activity Outlook: Current Carrier Plans ...... V-7 Moderate NLA Activity Outlook: Current Carrier Plans ...... V-9 High NLA Activity Outlook: Current and New Carrier Plans ...... V-9
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Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Table of Contents
Other demand Considerations...... V-15 NLA Activity Outlook Summary...... V-16 A380 Utilization...... V-16 NLA Summary Remarks...... V-17 VLJ Outlook...... V-17 Summary of Existing Projections ...... V-18 GAO Report GAO-07-1001: Very Light Jets...... V-18 Factors Influencing VLJ growth ...... V-21 Uses for VLJs...... V-23 Likely Ranges for VLJ Aircraft Production...... V-25 VLJ Outlook for Florida ...... V-28 Outlook for VLJ Operations in Florida...... V-29 VLJ Outlook Summary...... V-31 Summary and Conclusions ...... V-32 Bibliography For Activity Outlook...... V-35
Task VI: Economic Impact Assessment Introduction...... VI-1 Economic Impact Model...... VI-2 NLA Impacts...... VI-4 Airport Capital Improvements ...... VI-4 New Visitor Passenger Spending...... VI-5 NLA Total Annual Economic Impact...... VI-7 VLJ Impacts...... VI-8 VLJ Operators...... VI-9 VLJ Airports...... VI-10 VLJ Flight Training/Simulators...... VI-12 VLJ-related Capital Improvements...... VI-14 VLJ Manufacturers...... VI-16 First-round VLJ Economic Impact Summary...... VI-17 Total Annual Economic Impact of VLJs ...... VI-17 Productivity Enhancement from Time Savings ...... VI-18 Summary...... VI-19 Bibliography ...... VI-21
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List of Tables
Task I: Literature Review Table I-1 New Large Aircraft Characteristic Summary as of 1998 Publication...... I-3 Table I-2 Estimated Separation of Other Aircraft Types from the A380 ...... I-8
Task II: Aircraft Characteristics Table II-1 NLA Physical Characteristics...... II-4 Table II-2 NLA Operational Characteristics...... II-6 Table II-3 NLA Orders through Airport 2008 ...... II-8 Table II-4 Very Light Jet Manufacturer and Models...... II-12 Table II-5 VLJ Physical Characteristics ...... II-13 Table II-6 VLJ Operational Characteristics...... II-15 Table II-7 Additional VLJ Operational Characteristics...... II-17 Table II-8 VLJ Anticipated Production Numbers...... II-18
Task III: Facility Requirements Table III-1 Airbus NLA Facility Requirements Summary...... III-6 Table III-2 Boeing NLA Facility Requirements Summary ...... III-7 Table III-3 Airport Facility/Service Requirements – Private Owner (Part 91) ...... III-10 Table III-4 Airport Facility Requirements – On-Demand Operator (Part 135 ...... III-11
Task IV: Florida Airport Readiness Table IV-1 NLA Service to Miami...... IV-2 Table IV-2 Boeing 787 Passenger Loads, Range, and Competing Aircraft ...... IV-6 Table IV-3 Boeing 747-8 Passenger Loads, Range, and Competing Aircraft...... IV-6 Table IV-4 Airbus A350 Passenger Loads, Range, and Competing Aircraft...... IV-7 Table IV-5 Current US Carrier NLA Orders ...... IV-7 Table IV-6 Current International Carrier NLA Orders...... IV-8 Table IV-7 International Destinations Served From Florida’s Airports, Summer 2007 .....IV-9 Table IV-8 Florida Domestic Long-Haul Service Patterns, 2007...... IV-11 Table IV-9 Existing International Routes Suitable for NLA Introduction ...... IV-13 Table IV-10 Pro Forma International Routes with NLA Introduction ...... IV-13 Table IV-11 Asian and Middle Eastern Airline NLA Orders...... IV-15 Table IV-12 Florida Interstate Service Matrix Change in Weekly Scheduled Flight Departures...... IV-25 Table IV-13 Florida Airport Readiness: VLJ Private Use...... IV-28 Table IV-14 VLJ Air Taxi Readiness Assessment ...... IV-28 Table IV-15 Tier Assignments for VLJ Operators ...... IV-29 Table IV-16 Airport Assignments Tiers for Private Operators ...... IV-30 Table IV-17 Airport Assignments Tiers for On-Demand Operators...... IV-32
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Task V: Activity Outlook Table V-1 Florida Large Aircraft Fleet Mix: 2007...... V-4 Table V-2 NLA Annual Delivery Forecasts 2007-2017: Forecast International...... V-5 Table V-3 NLA Annual Delivery Forecasts 2007-2017: Teal Group ...... V-5 Table V-4 Combined Worldwide NLA Delivery Forecast: 2007-2018 ...... V-7 Table V-5 Current U.S. Carrier NLA Orders ...... V-10 Table V-6 Current Foreign-flagged Carrier NLA Orders...... V-11 Table V-7 Asian and Middle Eastern Airline NLA Orders ...... V-12 Table V-8 Potential NLA Daily Service Based on New International Service from Asia and Middle East...... V-12 Table V-9 NLA Outlook Summary of Scenarios ...... V-16 Table V-10 VLJ Utilization in 2005 as Reported by GAO Report GAO-07-1001 ...... V-23 Table V-11 Potential VLJ Deliveries to Support Air Taxi Providers...... V-25 Table V-12 Outlook for Anticipated Total VLJ Deliveries...... V-26 Table V-13 Outlook Range for VLJ Deliveries: Worldwide...... V-26 Table V-14 U.S. Versus Foreign Delivery of VLJs...... V-27 Table V-15 Outlook Range for VLJ Deliveries: U.S. Only...... V-27 Table V-16 VLJs on Order Percent by Customer Type...... V-27 Table V-17 Range of Total VLJ Aircraft in Florida...... V-29 Table V-18 Range of VLJ Aircraft Operations for Florida ...... V-30
Task VI: Economic Impact Assessment Table VI-1 Airport Capital Improvement Projects for NLA ...... VI-4 Table VI-2 Annual First-round Impacts of Airport NLA Capital Improvements at Florida Airports...... VI-5 Table VI-3 New Visitor Annual Spending Attributed to NLA Operations in Florida ...... VI-5 Table VI-4 Future Annual First-round Impacts of New Visitor Passengers from NLA In Florida...... VI-6 Table VI-5 Summary of NLA First-round Annual Impacts ...... VI-7 Table VI-6 Summary of NLA Total Annual Impacts...... VI-8 Table VI-7 First-round Annual Impacts of Florida VLJ Operators...... VI-10 Table VI-8 Future Airport First-round Impacts of VLJ Operations ...... VI-12 Table VI-9 Future Annual First-round Impacts from VLJ Flight Training in Florida ...... VI-13 Table VI-10 Annual First-round Impacts VLJ Flight Simulator Production in Florida....VI-13 Table VI-11 First-round Impacts of Past VLJ-related Capital Improvements at Florida Airports ...... VI-14 Table VI-12 First-round Impacts of Present VLJ-related Capital Improvements at Florida Airports...... VI-15 Table VI-13 Average Annual First-round Impacts of VLJ-related Capital Improvements At Florida Airports...... VI-16 Table VI-14 Average Annual Future First-round Impacts of VLJ Manufacturing in Florida...... VI-16 Table VI-15 Summary of VLJ First-round Annual Impacts...... VI-17 Table VI-16 Summary of VLJ Total Impacts...... V-18 Table VI-17 Estimate of Annual Florida VLJ Passengers...... VI-19 Table VI Annual Value of Productivity Enhancement...... VI-19
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List of Figures
Task I: Literature Review Figure I-1 New Large Aircraft (NLA) Milestones ...... I-21 Figure I-2 Very Light Jet (VLJ) Milestones ...... I-22
Task II: Aircraft Characteristics Figure II-1 NLA Depictions...... II-3 Figure II-2 VLJ Depictions...... II-10 Figure II-3 VLJ Range from Florida...... II-16
Task IV: Florida Airport Readiness Figure IV-1 NLA Airports...... IV-20 Figure IV-2 Private Operator Tiers...... IV-34 Figure IV-3 On-Demand Operator Tiers ...... IV-35
Task V: Activity Outlook Figure V-1 Worldwide NLA Delivery Forecasts 2007-2017: Forecast International ...... V-6 Figure V-2 Worldwide NLA Delivery Forecasts 2007-2017: Teal Group...... V-6 Figure V-3 Cumulative Worldwide NLA Delivery Forecast Summary: Forecast International and Teal Group...... V-7 Figure V-4 VLJ Forecast Comparison from GAO Report GAO-07-1001 ...... V-20
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Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Study Introduction
Introduction The aircraft industry has perpetually been in a state of flux; adjusting to changing consumer demands and technological advancements. The evolution of aircraft design from the Wright brothers introduction of fully powered and controlled flight in 1903 to today is obvious. These changes in aircraft design have resulted in the ability to carry more passengers and cargo on flights of greater distance in shorter times.
Aircraft manufacturing pioneers have come and gone, especially in the United States. Products by manufacturers such as Martin, Curtiss, Rockwell, Douglas, McDonnell, and Lockheed are gone from or are being slowly phased out of the commercial aircraft fleet. Some of these manufacturers consolidated with others, yielding only a few large manufacturers with a significant market share, particularly in the large commercial transport category. Two companies, Airbus Industries and the Boeing Company, now dominate the world’s production of commercial aircraft.
The trend for advancing aircraft design has also occurred in the general aviation industry. Cessna, Dassault, Raytheon, Hawker, Beechcraft, Gulfstream, Lear, Sabreliner, Piper, De Havilland, Bombardier, and Embraer are just a few of the many companies that have become well known for manufacturing aircraft for private, corporate, and on-demand users.
The newest models entering the aircraft fleet take advantage of the latest advancements in aviation technology and utilize the latest in innovative manufacturing materials. Models now entering the operational fleet are referred to as “Next Generation Aircraft” (NGA). Most of these aircraft share many of the following design features:
• Integrate the latest satellite navigational technology • Utilize composite materials • Equipped with more advanced, fuel saving engines • Incorporate design features to improve aerodynamics • Generate lower operational noise levels • Produce lower levels of air pollutants
Next Generation Aircraft entering both the commercial transport and the general aviation markets are taking advantage of these innovations to provide new levels of flexibility and service to both airlines and passengers.
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Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Study Introduction
With Next Generation Aircraft entering the operational aircraft fleet over the next decade, aviation leaders in Florida initiated a study to assess the readiness of airports in the state to accommodate new aircraft models. Additionally, study information provides a reference for various groups for the minimum airport operating requirements that are desirable for Next Generation Aircraft. These requirements can be utilized for planning purposes to identify potential facility or service improvements.
This study addresses the Next Generation Aircraft as two distinct classifications: 1) New Large Aircraft (NLA) and 2) Very Light Jets (VLJs). The differences between these aircraft types make it both appropriate and necessary to provide separate discussions on activity outlooks, markets, and airport facility needs.
New Large Aircraft Boeing and Airbus are the only two companies now manufacturing NLA. Both companies have either offered new variants of existing models or have introduced new aircraft models in each decade for over the past 40 years. Over the past 10 years, these manufacturers have again stretched the design criteria for commercial transport aircraft. Each manufacturer evaluated potential demand for aircraft handling 500-plus passengers during the 1990s. Only Airbus moved into full design and development of a new aircraft model with this type of seating capacity. This resulted in the development of the A380. While the A380 can be configured for approximately 800 passengers, most A380 customers have selected seating configurations for approximately 550. Boeing made the decision to offer a stretch variant of the B747, the B747-8. This plane provides passenger capacity of approximately 460. Additionally, Boeing is developing a freighter version of the B747-8.
In addition to aircraft in the near 500-passenger category, both major commercial transport manufacturers are also developing new wide-body models. Today, Boeing is focused on the production of the B787 Dreamliner, a commercial plane that seats between 200 and 330 passengers, depending upon the variant. Concurrently, Airbus is in the design and development stage for its A350. This aircraft focuses on the 250 to 350-passenger market. Both new wide-bodies will provide increased flight range and better operating cost margins due to their integration of next generation technological advancements.
We are currently in a boom time for aircraft manufacturers and for the companies that produce the engines that power NLA. The advancement in engine technology coupled with the new aerodynamic structural components and the use of composite materials produce aircraft with longer ranges, opening up the potential for new non-stop destinations.
The initial focus for utilization of the very largest NLA will be on very high density, long- haul international routes. While some NLA will be used to replace an aging commercial airline fleet, others will be additive and will open up new service options for carriers flying these planes. Initially, many NLA will be used on international routes, but Boeing’s 787 will also be used to serve high demand, longer-haul domestic routes.
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Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Study Introduction
As discussed in this document, because of their operating characteristics, some of the NLA may have an impact on airport facility and infrastructure requirements. This study provides an overview of the operating characteristics for NLA, their potential impacts on facility needs, anticipated costs in Florida to accommodate these planes, and steps that are being considered to ready Florida airports for NLA.
Very Light Jets At the same time NLA are revolutionizing commercial aviation, VLJs are changing the face of business aviation and on-demand flights. There are over a dozen manufacturers pursuing the production of VLJs, all of whom are noted in this study. While some of the VLJs, such as the Eclipse 500, have entered the operating fleet, other VLJs are in various phases of testing or certification. Others are still on the drawing board.
Because of their cost, fuel efficiency, and operating characteristics, VLJs have the potential to increase, primarily, business-related general aviation flying. VLJs may be the aircraft of choice for first time business operators seeking to own their own aircraft, as well as for those corporations who are replacing aging corporate planes. Companies, such as DayJet, who have based their operations in Florida, are using VLJs to provide customers with sophisticated and cost-competitive, on-demand flights. While the ultimate success of the DayJet business model will not be known for some time, aspects of its operations and the impact of these operations on airports in Florida, as they are presently available, are discussed in this report.
While some of the operating and facility needs of VLJs are similar to or less than traditional business jets currently part of the active general aviation fleet, VLJs have physical characteristics similar to some piston aircraft. This report discusses facilities and services identified by VLJ operators as being necessary or desirable. VLJs are already in use throughout Florida in an attempt to backfill service that commercial airlines have eliminated. Because of the operating requirements of VLJs and their ability to use many of Florida’s general aviation airports, new city pairs in Florida will benefit from quick connectivity that can only be provided by air travel. This study helps to highlight facilities and services needed to support VLJ operations and to assess the readiness of airports throughout Florida to accommodate these Next Generation Aircraft.
Study Purpose Florida has always been an aviation leader. Florida benefits from billions of dollars in economic activity linked directly to Florida’s airport system. To keep Florida at the forefront of aviation, strategies for accommodating Next Generation Aircraft are needed. Concurrently, with plans being developed by commercial and general aviation airports in Florida, the Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT) is taking a systems approach to ensure that the state's aviation system is ready to meet the needs of both large and small Next Generation Aircraft.
With its status as an international leader for trade, travel, and tourism, several commercial airports in Florida are preparing to meet the needs of the first wave of NLA. Additional
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Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Study Introduction
airports will need to be prepared to provide alternate facilities in the event that NLA are unable to land at their scheduled destination in Florida. Further, as aviation demand continues to grow in Florida, additional airports may need to be readied to accommodate successive waves of NLA.
While selected large hub commercial airports in Florida need infrastructure improvements to serve NLA, most Florida airports will need to be prepared to accommodate anticipated growth in VLJ operations. While some VLJs will be privately owned, as noted, others will be put into commercial use by on-demand operators.
Florida provides the ideal setting for the use of VLJs by on-demand operators. With its vast geography and multitude of urban and tourism centers, the VLJ provides a vehicle to conveniently link all areas of Florida with minimal or no modifications to the infrastructure that is currently in place at airports. Additionally, over the past six years, in-state scheduled commercial airline service in Florida has decreased. This has left consumers with the option of making inconvenient and time-consuming commercial airline connections or choosing to drive significant distances. On-demand VLJ operations are a likely solution to improving intrastate air service.
Study Tasks Multiple tasks were undertaken in this study in order to cover the breadth of information needed to address the study’s purpose. This Next Generation Aircraft study is divided into six major work elements, as discussed in following task overviews.
Task 1: Literature Review While Next Generation Aircraft have only recently started to enter the operational fleet, discussion related to these aircraft and consideration of their operating needs and impacts has been ongoing for some time. Relevant publications, articles, and reports are reviewed as part of this task. The objective of the literature review is to catalogue and summarize information pertaining to Next Generation Aircraft. Specifically, information on production/ manufacturing trends, operating characteristics and needs, and implications Next Generation Aircraft may have on Florida airports were sought in the literature review. Information from the literature review is presented in several of the study’s technical work elements.
Task 2: Aircraft Characterization For the airports in Florida to be prepared to accommodate Next Generation Aircraft, it is important to summarize the primary characteristics of both NLA and VLJs. Characteristics of both types of aircraft, as they are presently available, are summarized in this section of the report. NLA have the greatest propensity to affect airports in Florida. Information on aircraft length, wingspan, and the turning radius for NLA all have the potential to impact facility design or the respective airport’s appropriate Airport Reference Code (ARC). Further, the number of doors and height of the doors on NLA may have an impact on jetways and gates serving these planes. Probable areas of planning and design concern are noted in this section.
One of the primary benefits of the VLJ is that it is able to operate not only at commercial airports in Florida, but also at many of the general aviation airports. The operating
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Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Study Introduction characteristics and facility needs of most VLJs are less demanding than those of corporate/business jets that now operate at many Florida airports. Characteristics for the VLJ models under development, as they are currently known, are summarized in this section of the report. This information is beneficial to guide facility planning.
Task 3: Airport Facility and Service Requirements As noted, the needs of NLA and VLJs vary significantly. Since both types of Next Generation Aircraft are just entering the initial stages of introduction into the operating fleet, this task summarizes information on specific facility needs and services that are deemed necessary or desirable to support both types of aircraft.
As information was available, it was gathered and summarized to highlight facility needs for NLA as they relate to the airfield, apron areas, the terminal building, ground handling facilities, ARFF, and air cargo handling. Facility and service needs for VLJs are vastly different from those of the NLA. Further, facility and service needs for VLJs will be different depending upon whether the aircraft is operated by a private owner versus an on-demand commercial provider. For VLJs, information on the following facility needs was collected and summarized in this section of the report:
• Airfield • Airfield approach aids • Apron and hangars • Passenger or FBO terminals • Fuel • Other support services
It is anticipated that as additional information on the needs and requirements of both NLA and VLJs becomes available, FDOT will be able to add to the information presented in this section of the report.
Task 4: Readiness of Florida Airports To support this task, information was sought from management at all commercial and general aviation airports in Florida, from commercial operators who do or could fly VLJ aircraft in Florida and from companies producing or maintaining VLJ aircraft in Florida. Information from this task was used to expand and refine data collected in the aircraft characteristics task. This effort provides information on airports that are near-term, alternate, and potential recipients for NLA. Information is summarized in the report as it pertains to each of the following:
• Anticipated timeframe for service by NLA • Potential operator(s) of NLA • Facility improvement plans for NLA • Anticipated costs (if known) for accommodating NLA
A review of current domestic and international air service at Florida airports helps to identify routes that may be candidates for NLA.
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Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Study Introduction
Airport readiness for VLJs considers physical facilities and operator needs. This task considers information from both VLJ operators and airports. In addition to reviewing this information, city pairs in Florida that have experienced cuts in or elimination of in-state scheduled commercial airline service are noted. These city pairs provide insight as it relates to potential routes for on-demand VLJ service.
This work effort provides information for both FDOT and individual airport operators that highlights improvements that are underway, as well as those to be considered, to insure that Florida airports are positioned to serve Next Generation Aircraft. Airports expected to serve VLJs are assigned to “tiers” based on anticipated VLJ facility needs indentified through this analysis.
Task 5: Activity Outlook for Next Generation Aircraft Activity in Florida It is important to understand how NLA and VLJ activity will grow on a statewide basis during the next five years and the following five years thereafter. Specific airports that will most likely see NLA operations are most easily identified; airport specific VLJ demand is not easily quantifiable at this time. Industry, manufacturers, operator, and FAA growth rates for NLA and VLJs help to support this task’s outlook as it relates to future demand.
Task 6: Economic Impact Estimate Economic impacts are estimated in this task for the current, near-term, and future timeframes. These impacts consider newly created jobs and capital improvements undertaken specifically to support Next Generation Aircraft. VLJ impacts are limited primarily to on-demand usage of these aircraft. Past, current and future annual economic impacts for NLA and VLJs are provided. However, known future planned capital improvements are included. Economic impacts for Next Generation Aircraft are presented on a statewide basis for NLA and VLJs.
Introduction Summary The study that follows provides the FDOT, other federal, state, and local officials, and Florida airport operators with an initial assessment of the readiness of Florida airports to accommodate both large and small Next Generation Aircraft. The information presented in this study enables decision makers to identify potential infrastructure and funding needs and to assess emerging activity trends, as they relate specifically to Next Generation Aircraft. The base data presented in this report lends itself to periodic update, as large and small Next Generation Aircraft become more prevalent in the operational fleet.
This study summarizes plans that have been developed on the local level to accommodate Next Generation Aircraft. A summary of the implementation status for existing plans is provided. Estimated costs for accommodating Next Generation Aircraft are presented, as these costs could be obtained from system airports. Actions that may be needed in Florida to meet the needs of Next Generation Aircraft are an output of this study. This information will help FDOT, the FAA, and others to identify currently unmet needs and to prioritize projects identified to meet the needs of Florida airports to serve Next Generation Aircraft.
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Task I Literature Review
Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task I: Literature Review
Introduction Next Generation Aircraft (NGA) models are expected to revolutionize the future of the aviation industry. There are two distinct classes of NGAs being developed: the Very Light Jet (VLJ) and the New Large Aircraft (NLA). These new aircraft models are at either end of the size spectrum in the current aircraft fleet.
A VLJ is defined as an aircraft with a maximum takeoff weight of less than or equal to 10,000 pounds. The aircraft must also be certified for single pilot operations, be equipped with advanced avionic systems, and be priced below other more traditional business jets. VLJs will be used primarily for short business trips, air taxi services, and on a much more limited basis for recreational flying. Several different manufacturers have or are planning to introduce VLJ models into the market over the next few years. These manufacturers include Cessna, Eclipse Aviation, Embraer, Epic, and HondaJet.
Only one NLA model–the Airbus A380–is currently in full production, and another–the Boeing 787 Dreamliner–is in final assembly for certification testing. The A380 is currently the largest passenger aircraft in the world. The NLA have extended operating ranges, better engine efficiencies, and lower noise and air emissions. These types of aircraft fit well with air travel capacity on international flights and on high-density domestic flights. Additionally, two other NLA, the Boeing 747-800 and the Airbus A350, are currently under design. Boeing had a freighter version of the B747-800 under development as well. Airbus has announced three passenger variants of the A350.
Many next generation aircraft will benefit from the FAA’s overhaul of the nation’s airspace system. While still in its early states, the revamped airspace system is referred to as NextGen. Florida has been selected as a test market for portions of the new satellite-based aviation system. With NextGen, operational capacity will increase at airports around the state. NextGen is a GPS-based navigation system that will ultimately replace older ground-based radar systems. Using NextGen’s enhanced capabilities planes will be able to fly more direct routes in closer proximity to one another. This will create less congestion in the airspace surrounding airports, as well as cut down on travel time. Using the NextGen airspace system, planes will be able to save fuel while reducing noise and emissions.
A literature review of studies conducted by aviation industry groups pertaining to Next Generation Aircraft was completed. This included studies completed by the General Accounting Office (GAO), the Transportation Research Board (TRB), the Consortium for
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Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task I: Literature Review
Aviation System Advancement (CASA), and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). Timelines showing the evolution, production, and estimated delivery dates of several VLJs and NLA were created and included in this section as Figure I-1 and I-2. These figures are presented at the end of this section.
The purpose of the literature review was to summarize the data in key publications in order to capture important information on trends for both VLJs and NLA. The literature review sought information on both of these very distinct classes of planes because the operating characteristics and needs of these two groups of planes are very different. The literature review highlights how both groups of Next Generation Aircraft have evolved from concept to flight.
The literature review sought information that could subsequently be used in other portions of this study. In particular, data pertaining to each of the following questions was sought:
• How will VLJs grow as part of the general aviation fleet? • How will NLA impact the current fleet of commercial operators? • Which airports in Florida are mostly to be used by NLA and VLJs? • What are the facility and service needs of the operators of NLA and VLJs? • How will Next Generation Aircraft impact development needs at Florida airports?
Publications were not available related to all of these questions; however, this Next Generation Aircraft study will address all of these questions. The literature review included primarily publications and articles published between 1998 and early 2008.
Reports Summary overviews of seven reports related to Next Generation Aircraft and ongoing air traffic control system improvement projects are presented in this section. Each overview provides highlights from the report, with a focus on issues relevant to future steps in this study related to NGA impacts on Florida airports.
NLA Reports
“Impact of New Large Aircraft on Airport Design” Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration, Washington, D.C.: Office of Aviation Research, March 1998.
Study Purpose The purpose of this study was to investigate the extent to which New Large Aircraft (NLA) would affect airport design and operational standards. In 1998, the NLA were mostly in a conceptual phase or early design development, with many of their characteristics still under review. This study has the following three main sections:
• New Large Aircraft Characteristics • Impact on Airport Design
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Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task I: Literature Review
• Costs to Airports for Introducing New Large Aircraft.
New Large Aircraft Characteristics This report section presented aircraft specifications for multiple NLA, including new variants of the Boeing 747 and 777, a new Airbus model identified as A3XX. A supersonic model, referred to in the FAA report as the High-Speed Civil Transport (HSCT), was pursued by Boeing as part of a NASA program in the 1990s. The HSCT was eventually abandoned as a concept in 1999. Additionally, several aircraft models initially planned by McDonnell Douglas Corporation were discussed, although by the time of the final report publication, the company had merged with Boeing. Table I-1 presents a summary of characteristics for the Boeing and Airbus models covered by this FAA report. As shown, most of the NLA models fall within a FAA ARC of D-VI.
Table I-1 New Large Aircraft Characteristic Summary as of 1998 Publication Boeing Models B777-200B B777-300 B747-500X B747-600X HSCT Length * 242’ * * 326’ Wingspan 200’ 200’ 251’ 251’ 155’ MTOW (lbs) 632,500 660,000 1,200,000 1,200,000 2-post, 12- 2-post, 12- 4-post, 20- 4-post, 20- 2-post, 16- Gear wheel main wheel main wheel main wheel main wheel main Configuration gear; 2-wheel gear; 2-wheel gear; 4-wheel gear; 4-wheel gear; 2-wheel nose gear nose gear nose gear nose gear nose gear Wheelbase 18’11”[sic] 102’ 91’ 104’ 118’5” # of Passengers 375 420 462 548 250-300 FAA ARC D-V D-V D-VI D-VI D-IV Runway Length 10,500’ ≤11,000’ ≤11,000’ ≤11,000’ 11,000’ Required (est.) Re-enforced Stretched Supersonic Other version of B777 version of Characteristics B777-200B • = not Early 1997 Late 2001 Late 2000 Between 2005 known to 2015 Anticipated at time Entry Date of report Airbus Models A3XX-100 A3XX-200 Length 232’ 254’ Wingspan 259’ 259’ MTOW (lbs) ~1,100,000 ~1,210,000 Gear 4-post, 24-wheel main gear; 4-post, 24-wheel main gear; Configuration 2-wheel nose gear 2-wheel nose gear # of Passengers 555 656 FAA ARC D-VI D-VI Runway Length 11,000’ 11,000’ Required (est.) Other Double-deck; 79’ tall Stretch version of 100 model; Characteristics Anticipated By 2003 Beyond 2003 Entry Date Source:” Impact of New Large Aircraft on Airport Design,” U.S. Department of Transportation. Washington, D.C.: Office of Aviation Research, 1998.
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Impact on Airport Design This section of the FAA report forecast many of the issues related to NLAs presented in more recent studies. The report presented information as to why NLA would have a large impact on runway and taxiway length and width. The planned NLA weights, wingspan, and increased engine thrust drive the types of airfield pavement improvements that would ultimately be needed. They could also affect taxiway shoulder dimensions and pose difficulties for other aircraft performing taxiing in close proximity to NLA (19).
The study also notes that NLA could create difficulties for fire and emergency service response due to their larger lengths, multiple levels, and increased number of passengers. More recent studies have discovered that airport safety crews are prepared to handle NLA similar to the A380.
Deicing operations associated with NLA would be similar to other aircraft. It was estimated that multiple deicing trucks might be needed to apply deicing fluid simultaneously to complete the application with FAA parameters.
Environmental impacts may be even less than current wide-bodied aircraft, as the NLA models are designed with lower engine noise levels (i.e., Stage 3 or better) and better emission profiles. A possible environmental impact could result for additional runoff if an airport added more pavement area when undertaking major infrastructure expansions.
Passenger loading and terminal services could become strained with the arrival or departure of NLA. Due to their size, NLA would likely be limited to use of only certain gates at an airport, and they may need to be at the gate for longer periods. Loading larger numbers of passengers and cargo could result in longer aircraft dwell times at these gates. Lobbies, ticketing areas, passenger hold rooms, security stations, and parking facilities could also become crowded with the increased passenger levels NLA support (36-38).
Costs to Airports for Introducing New Large Aircraft This study does not go into specific financial estimates for accommodating NLA, but states that most airports expecting to serve NLA will have to make infrastructure improvements in the coming years. It also mentions that most airports currently serving the Boeing 747 meet Design Group V standards, but not Design Group VI. Most NLA will be grouped in Design Group VI. The FAA has since determined that NLA like the A380 will be able to operate with restrictions under Group V standards.
Study Conclusions and Recommendations The final sections of the FAA report included a list of concluding remarks and recommended future steps. Key issues addressed included the following:
• The need for open communication between aircraft manufacturers, government agencies and airport management • The suggested formation of an action team to identify any needed changes to federal regulations, orders, Advisory Circulars, design standards, etc. • The review of potential operational changes in addition to facility improvements to safely accommodate NLAs
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Summary Observations This study is slightly dated; but presents a good overview of NLA impacts on airports. Most of the issues mentioned have since been resolved at airports planning to serve NLA in the near term.
Airport Infrastructure: Unresolved Issues Make It Difficult to Determine the Cost to Serve New Large Aircraft Source: GAO-02-251, United States Government Accountability Office, Washington, DC: U.S. Government Accountability Office, February 2002.
Scope and Methodology This paper comments on a survey undertaken by the General Accounting Office (GAO) in which 14 airports expecting to serve New Large Aircraft (NLA) participated. Miami International and Orlando International airports responded to this GAO survey. Together, these 14 airports estimated that they would need a combined $2.1 billion for infrastructure improvement to meet Design Group VI standards. This report also presents several factors why the estimates for airport upgrades are difficult to determine.
Unresolved Issues Several factors make it difficult to estimate the total cost of airport improvements needed to serve NLA (3), as noted below:
1. It is not yet certain how many commercial airlines will utilize NLA or at which airports they plan to offer service. 2. It is not yet certain exactly when NLA service will begin. 3. It is unclear whether the airports’ estimated costs are associated with the NLA specifically, or with other airport improvement designed to accommodate future growth in air traffic. Airport officials note that it is difficult to separate these two cost centers. (4)
Modification of Standards Airports that do not plan on infrastructure improvements may apply for a modification of standards from the FAA to allow NLA to operate under certain restrictions at the airport. This would eliminate the need for some airport improvements, while still allowing airports to service NLA.
This study points out that modification of standards is not an advisable long-term solution, as restrictions associated with accommodating NLA may slow overall air traffic (3). Boeing and Airbus estimate that there will be anywhere from 500 to 1,500 NLA in operation worldwide by 2019 (7). With that many NLA in the aviation system, modification of standards would not be a long-term solution.
Summary Observations This paper presents reasons why it is difficult to estimate the extent to which airports will need to make improvements to serve the A380 and other NLA. Several of the issues mentioned in this report have since been addressed, including revised standards by FAA. The FAA allows the A380 to use taxiways, which are 75 feet wide, and runways, which are 150
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feet wide. This limits the need for runway and taxiway modifications at many airports across the U.S. In summary, there are a number of airports that can currently serve NLA with some operational restrictions, but it is unclear the extent of infrastructure improvements that will eventually be needed to accommodate these aircraft.
Commercial Aviation: Costs and Major Factors Influencing Infrastructure Changes at U.S. Airports to Accommodate the New A380 Aircraft Source: United States Government Accountability Office, Washington, DC: U.S. Government Accountability Office, May 2006.
Airbus A380 Airbus recently introduced its newest aircraft, the A380. It is the largest passenger aircraft in the world, seating between 555 and 853 passengers. Due to its size, it is forcing existing airports to re-examine and update their infrastructure to accommodate this new large aircraft (NLA).
This study reviews and identifies the impacts of this new aircraft on existing U.S. airports. The study identifies 18 airports that are making or planning to make changes to their infrastructure to accommodate the A380 by 2015 (30). It then breaks down the nature of infrastructure improvements by airport, also estimating costs. Airbus also provides input on the cost estimates for each airport. This study also includes detailed information about planned improvements at Orlando, Miami, and Tampa International airports.
FAA Regulations/Compliance FAA’s design standards for the introduction of the A380 will play a large role in determining the extent and cost of airport improvements (6). The current standard for Airplane Design Group VI requires a 200-foot wide runway and a 100-foot wide taxiway for an aircraft the size of the A380. FAA may revise their standards to allow for a 150-foot wide runway and a 75-foot wide taxiway for the A380. This would reduce some of the expansion costs for airports expecting to accommodate this large aircraft (7).
FAA has also been using a review/appeal process at existing airports to allow for modification of current standards. As of March 1, 2006, 68 requests have been submitted, 47 of those have already been approved (7).
The FAA’s decision to uphold or modify the current design standards for this large aircraft will affect the extent to which airports need to upgrade existing infrastructure, and the investment costs associated with those upgrades. The majority of most expansion costs would likely go toward runway and taxiway expansion projects.
Cost Estimates The 18 airports that were surveyed for this study estimated that they would need a combined $927 million to complete all the projects necessary for A380 operations (4). Three airports in Florida provided project information and cost estimates for the improvements related to serving A380 aircraft. They also provided information as it was known at that time as to
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estimated service dates. However, due to delays in A380 production the expected service initiation dates have slipped as much as two years.
Florida airports participating in this GAO survey were Miami, Orlando, and Tampa International airports. The total cost of completed, ongoing, and/or planned projects at Miami International at that time was approximately $97.5 million. Miami expected to receive passenger flights from three carriers using the A380; these flights were expected to begin in the 2008 to 2010 time frame. Orlando International estimated its costs at $66.1 million in 2006, and they anticipated the A380 would begin operating at the airport in 2009. Tampa International estimated costs of $2.3 million to accommodate the A380. Tampa International expects to serve as an alternate airport for A380s flying to Miami and Orlando (52, 58, and 64). Airbus estimates costs for Miami and Orlando will be much lower, and does not expect Tampa to receive scheduled A380 service in the near term (64).
Summary Observations This GAO report concluded that the extent and cost of infrastructure projects related to the initiation of A380 service to U.S. airports will depend on the final FAA decision regarding Design Group VI standards. Currently, no U.S. carriers have ordered the passenger version of the A380. Federal Express and UPS have both ordered 10 of the A380F, the cargo version of the plane, as of the date of the GAO report publication. However, subsequent to this GAO report, both carriers canceled their orders due to postponement of the freighter version by Airbus related to delays in the passenger version of the A380.
Commercial Aviation: Potential Safety and Capacity Issues Associated with the Introduction of the New A380 Aircraft Source: GAO-07-483, United States Government Accountability Office, Washington, DC: U.S. Government Accountability Office, April 2007.
Airbus A380 Airbus recently introduced its newest aircraft, the A380. It is the largest passenger aircraft in the active commercial aircraft fleet, with a 262-foot wingspan, a tail fin height of 80 feet, and a maximum takeoff weight of 1.2 million pounds. Due to its size, it may have an impact on the safety, development needs, design standards, and capacity of existing U.S. airports.
This study reviews and identifies the impacts of this new aircraft on existing U.S. airports. It focuses on safety and capacity issues, and identifies ways in which foreign airports are addressing similar issues. Data was collected by reviewing published studies and FAA briefings and from actual site visits.
Safety Issues The size of the A380 poses a number of challenges for U.S. airports, many of which were not designed to handle such a large aircraft (11). Operating restrictions for the A380, as well as for other aircraft in its vicinity, may have to be imposed. On the ground, airports may have to stop other planes from taxiing while the A380 performs its maneuvers. In the air, an aircraft the size of the A380 will require greater separation from other aircraft due to turbulence created by the aircraft’s size. The proposed aircraft separation requirements as presented in this GAO report are provided in Table I-2.
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Table I-2 Estimated Separation of Other Aircraft Types from the A380 Landing Separation Distance Aircraft Required (Nautical Miles) A380 vs. A380 4 A380 vs. Heavy aircraft 6 A380 vs. Medium Aircraft 8 A380 vs. Light Aircraft 10
The A380 also poses safety challenges for fire and rescue crews on the ground (11). Crews may run into problems due to the plane’s large size and upper deck. Evacuating a larger number of passengers during an emergency could prove to be a challenge. The A380 also has a fuel capacity of 81,890 gallons, more than any other passenger aircraft (8).
Capacity Issues At this time, it is uncertain what effect the introduction of the A380 will have on airport capacity. While the A380 is a larger aircraft and capable of holding more passengers per flight, an A380 operation might delay other flight operations at the airport. The delays would be due to increased operational separation after A380 takeoffs and the potential restrictions on taxiing aircraft on adjacent, parallel taxiways while an A380 is taxiing.
The A380 will also have certain gate restrictions due to its size and upper deck. This aircraft will occupy a gate longer, and may even affect the use of surrounding gates due to its wingspan encroaching on an adjacent gate’s operational area. The large number of passengers entering and exiting the plane could also put a strain on terminal facilities and security screenings inside the terminal, especially if A380 flights were concurrent with the airport terminal’s existing peak hour.
Airbus Comments Airbus commented on the issues presented in the study, citing the advanced safety materials and equipment on the A380. On capacity issues, they believe that the A380 will help to alleviate capacity at airports due to its ability to hold larger numbers of passengers and cargo. Gate availability and wake vortices were compared to that of the Boeing 747 when it was first introduced. Airbus comments that these are industry trends naturally influencing airports to adapt, and that those airports will be able to serve large aircraft.
Summary Observations The impact of the A380 on airport capacity and safety is not yet clear. FAA officials and aviation experts agreed that the introduction of this new aircraft would add “another element of complexity” to airport management and development (33). It should be noted that as a whole, foreign airports have made more significant investments to accommodate the A380 than U.S. airports.
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VLJ Reports
Future Flight: A Review of the Small Aircraft Transportation System Concept Source: Special Report 263, Transportation Research Board, Washington, DC: National Academy Press, December 2002.
Small Aircraft Transportation System (SATS) SATS is a concept developed and studied by NASA’s Office of Aerospace Technology. Aviation industry, government agencies, and university professionals participated in the SATS program. SATS seeks to meet transportation needs using small general aviation aircraft and airports. This concept addresses proposed advancements in small aircraft, technology, and air traffic control systems. These advancements were to support the following operational requirements for the SATS concept:
• Single pilot operation • High-volume operations at airports with no radar coverage or air traffic control towers • Operations in instrument flight rule conditions • Ground based navigational aids or instrument landing systems not needed • Digital data link capabilities required • Automatic Dependent Surveillance and Broadcast (ADS-B) reliant • GPS based systems
The SATS concept attempts to accomplish its goals by making general aviation aircraft accessible to more pilots and by increasing the overall fleet of small aircraft in the U.S. These smaller planes would be more affordable to purchase, maintain, and operate. They would also be safer and easier to use for beginner pilots. Focusing on transportation routes between small communities, the SATS concept is expected to add tens of thousands of small aircraft to the general aviation fleet. There are four main goals of the SATS concept (51):
• Alleviate congestion and delays in the current aviation system • Increase transportation options for people in smaller, remote communities • Enhance the safety of the aviation system • Increase the environmental compatibility of the aviation system
NASA’s SATS program funded research on the technology to support the SATS concept. The program involved a public-private partnership of multiple agencies and private aviation firms. Representatives from Florida’s airports, universities, and aviation companies were active in this program. The SATS funding supported development and deployment testing of technology such as ADS-B and network connectivity.
Study Purpose This study was undertaken by the Transportation Review Board at the request of NASA. The review board consisted of representatives from government, universities and aviation industry, particularly aircraft manufacturers.
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NASA posed the following two questions to be addressed by this peer review board:
1. “Do the relative merits of the SATS concept, in whole or in part, contribute to addressing travel demand in coming decades with sufficient net benefit to warrant public investment in technology and infrastructure development and deployment? 2. What are the most important steps that should be taken at the national, state, and local levels in support of the SATS deployment?” (113):
Study Results The project included a limited assessment of airports in the U.S. regarding their ability to accommodate SATS aircraft. Most of the small airports in the U.S. have sufficient runway lengths to accommodate many small aircraft (4,000 feet or greater) Thus, it was noted that some airports may need additional infrastructure improvements to handle additional traffic that could be introduced with SATS.
The TRB panel analyzed the four goals of SATS: airspace congestion, transportation options, safety, and environmental aspects. These issues were analyzed based upon the existing and the proposed SATS technology and aviation system processes. Key points from the report related to the four SATS goals are presented below:
• Airspace Congestion: Currently, operational airspace congestion is not the primary cause of most flight delays in the U.S. aviation system. A primary cause of systemwide delays occur because of airline scheduling at a few key airports. Other causes are problems with air traffic equipment, runway closures, or weather (60). The TRB panel concluded that if SATS focuses only on small airports and communities, demand might not be sufficient. A major obstacle for the SATS concept is that it could potentially increase congestion instead of alleviating it if SATS does include travel to and from hub airports, the increased numbers of smaller aircraft could pose challenges in the heavily used, controlled airspace surrounding the large hubs (3).
• Transportation Options: The current “hub-and-spoke” aviation system in place today directs traffic from smaller communities to large hub airports, dispersing passengers more efficiently using larger planes and consolidated routes. The SATS system seeks to avoid the larger airports, in favor of direct travel to small communities. While this approach would spread transportation options across more communities, it might also have a negative effect, spreading out aviation resources too thinly. If traffic becomes too thin, this could leave no single airport with sufficient traffic volumes to support facilities and resources. (65)
• Operational Safety: Commercial aircraft and pilot training have consistently ranked higher in safety than general aviation aircraft and pilots. All air traffic in the U.S. is essentially safe; and as standards and training continue to improve, accident occurrences will continue to fall to a low level. The study suggested that multiple SATS aircraft technology advancements would need
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to be introduced simultaneously, and then be fully evaluated for safety compliance. Additionally, the report comments that in addition to just the technology advancements, pilots would need to be trained and become accustomed to the new operating environment. The report states that these safety challenges are “sufficient to call into question the plausibility of the SATS vision.” (112)
• Environmental Impacts: Environmental compatibility continues to be a potential limiting factor for aviation. Noise impacts and emission concerns must be continually researched to improve and alleviate these environmental issues. Noise and emission concerns could likely be raised due to the increased number of aircraft operations in smaller communities.
Summary Observations In answer to question one, the TRB panel did not share NASA’s views regarding the SATS concept (2) as evidenced by their summary statement: “the full-scale SATS concept presents a highly unlikely and potentially undesirable outcome.” (113) Concerns were raised about the affordability and appeal of general aviation aircraft to the general public. Low levels of demand were also a concern, with SATS focusing on travel outside of the large regional hubs where many passengers may need to travel.
The panel also raised concerns about one view of the future aviation system–i.e., SATS– being the sole guide in NASA’s aviation research and development program. Their primary concern is that focusing only on one idea “could inhibit the evolution of alternative outcomes that may result from technological opportunities and economic and social need.” (113)
However, the TRB panel was supportive of technology research and development proposed in the SATS program and the use of public funds in those efforts. They also endorsed the public-private partnership approach of the program. The panel did not support the use of public funds to deploy SATS-based technology or using the SATS concept to guide funding decisions. In its concluding section, the report states that the technology improvements proposed for funding under the SATS program eventually may have uses in the overall aviation system not originally envisioned.
Florida NGATS Airports Classification Report Source: Consortium for Aviation System Advancement, Daytona Beach, Florida: July 3, 2006.
Next Generation Air Transportation System (NGATS) NGATS was developed by the Joint Planning and Development Office (JPDO) in response to the expected demand for aviation transportation (2) and the aging air traffic control system. The NGATS program involves a partnership of multiple government and industry representatives to guide the efforts of updating air traffic management systems in the U.S. These air traffic upgrades should have the following characteristics:
• Reliance on GPS technology • Application of information technology to connect users
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• Availability of real-time weather data for all users • Reduction in environmental impacts
Anticipated outcomes of the NGATS program include increased access to more airports during poor weather conditions, increased operational capacity in congested airspace, and additional safety programs. Some of the NGATS technology has grown out of the previous SATS program.
Study Purpose The goal of this CASA study was to identify the current capability of Florida’s airports to provide the necessary facilities and services related to NGATS. This report provides a two- part classification system for the 129 public-use airports in Florida. Depending on the facilities and services available, every airport was assigned a letter and number combination, ranging from A to F and 1 to 7. As demand for the use of smaller airports increases, the classification number serves to provide guidance to airport managers, air service providers, and customers.
Background As the aviation industry continues to expand, the introduction of VLJs into the market will increase the overall number of planes in the system. This increase in aircraft is expected to increase the demand for smaller general aviation airports around the state. This classification system is important primarily because it presents what services and facilities should be expected at each airport. Easy access to this information will allow more people to utilize smaller airports.
Classification System This report presents a two-part classification system comprised of a service number (1 to 7) and a facility letter (A to F). The combination provides a code ranging from an A-7 airport with all services and facilities, to an F-1 facility with minimal services suitable as a rural or sport airport (10).
The services classification ranged from “1”, representing no services or ground transportation, to “7” representing an airport with basic pilot and passenger amenities, as well as full business travel capabilities. To achieve a “7”, an airport must provide ground transportation services, fuel, FBO services, air taxi support, layover services, pilot services, and a “virtual office” for business travelers (13).
The facilities classifications range from an “F” for an airport without a paved runway to “A” which represents an airport approved for full NGATS operations. To achieve an “A” ranking, an airport must provide a paved runway, ASOS, runway lighting, ILS/WAAS approach, and a tower or “smart” approach (14-15). An additional category was added labeled “A*”; this category indicates an airport is approved for full NGATS operations, but may have some restrictions on air taxi or air charter operations such as additional fees.
Summary Observations It is generally agreed that demand for ATC service will increase in the coming years, justifying this type of classification system (22). For this particular study, runway length was
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not a factor, as most small aircraft only need a runway between 2,500 to 3,500 feet in length. It was also noted that taxiway expansion might be needed to mitigate any capacity congestion due to increased traffic.
This study focused only on Florida, and it classifies all public airports in the state according to this particular system. It also stresses the importance of ground transportation services at the airports since passengers typically need ground transportation upon arrival. Without ground transportation, the demand for travel to smaller general aviation airports may not increase, and people might utilize another form of transportation (10).
Very Light Jets: Several Factors Could Influence Their Effect on the National Airspace System Source: GAO-07-1001, United States Government Accountability Office, Washington, DC: U.S. Government Accountability Office, August 2007.
Very Light Jet Forecasts Many of Florida’s airports will need to be prepared to accommodate the anticipated entry of very light jets (VLJs) into the general aviation fleet. Subsequently, some of the airports will need to be prepared to accommodate growth in VLJ operations. In the next few decades, thousands of VLJ operations in the National Airspace System will expand the existing fleet of general aviation aircraft. This paper identifies possible effects this next generation aircraft may have on the present aviation system.
This paper reviews several government, academic, and aviation industry forecast studies. In addition, the paper summarizes interviews with several industry experts. Eight forecast scenarios were summarized. The range of these forecasts for the number of VLJs to be delivered indicated a low of 3,000 VLJs to a high of 7,600 VLJs. In addition, the dates for reaching those projected numbers of VLJ aircraft ranged from 2016 to 2025 (3).
Assumptions Influencing VLJ Forecasts The anticipated extent to which VLJs will influence the current general aviation industry varies widely. This is due primarily to the different assumptions used by contributing organizations. Factors that may influence the introduction of VLJs and the number of these aircraft that will be operating in the future include trends in the air taxi market, national economic growth, aircraft production costs and constraints, insurance and aircraft certification issues, and expected aircraft retirements (14).
Usage and Capacity Concerns Opinions and projections pertaining to the entrance of VLJs into the marketplace vary widely. It is uncertain at this time as to what extent VLJs will shape the air taxi market, or what the demand will be for VLJs to replace aging comparable general aviation aircraft.
Congestion and operational delays could be an issue depending on whether or not these new aircraft would operate at larger commercial hub airports, but this is considered by most industry experts to be an unlikely scenario (21). There would be limited or no effect on congestion or airspace capacity if new VLJs simply replace retiring aircraft.
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Industry expressed their beliefs that safety would not be an issue associated with the introduction of new VLJs. FAA testing, certification, and safety regulations are in place for new aircraft and pilots entering the marketplace. Additionally, manufacturers and industry trade groups are developing extensive pilot training programs, which should increase operational safety. (23)
Summary Observations At this time, according to this publication, it is difficult to conclude what effect the introduction of VLJs will have on the National Airspace System. Congestion issues and future FAA costs will depend primarily on the extent that VLJs replace existing aircraft. In addition, how VLJs will impact airspace and add to possible congestion and delays will be determined based on how these aircraft are distributed between commercial and non- commercial airports and between metropolitan and non-metropolitan facilities. In addition, the market for future air taxi service is largely unknown, and demand for this type of service will almost certainly influence the projected number of VLJ deliveries (27). The report notes that previous VLJ forecasts, including an FAA prediction made in 2006, were not able to accurately predict VLJ deliveries (19).
Articles A review of selected news articles from mid-2006 through early 2008 was completed to provide insight into the development and entrance of Next Generation Aircraft into the aviation market. This article review was not intended to be comprehensive, identifying every article published during this time, but rather to present information on the various program milestones for Next Generation Aircraft. The articles have been segregated by those related to NLA followed by those articles that address VLJ developments. Articles in each section are ordered chronologically from the earliest to the most current date.
NLA Related Articles
1. Ed Hewitt, “Boeing 787: The Future of Flight?” The Independent Traveler, Inc., July 11, 2007, http://www.independenttraveler.com/resources/article.cfm?AID=757& category=13 (accessed August 24, 2007).
2. This article provides a review of how the Dreamliner approaches the common criticisms regarding the airline industry, such as no legroom, no storage room, bad lighting, foul air, significant environmental impacts, etc. Following the most successful aircraft launch in history, the Boeing 787 Dreamliner is reported to be the most fuel-efficient plane of its size, as well as one of the quietest in the commercial airline fleet. For customers, it promises better air circulation, enhanced window views, and larger overhead bins. While curtailing costs for airlines, the writer notes that it is unlikely to lead to a lowering of airfares for passengers.
3. Bloomberg News, “Boeing May Decide Soon to Build More 787s, Report Says,” Seattle Post-Intelligencer, August 21, 2007,
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http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/ 328387_boeing21.html (accessed August 24, 2007).
4. Boeing may increase production of the 787 Dreamliner from seven to 10 a month due to increased demand. As of this article, a production study was being done to determine if increasing production to 10 per day was possible. A decision was set to be made within weeks.
5. Rod Stone, “Airbus A380 Promises Less for Big Airports,” The Wall Street Journal, September 5, 2007, http://archives.californiaaviation.org/airport/msg42219.html, (accessed September 6, 2007).
6. Many large airports have made accommodations for the A380, expecting that it will bring in more passengers per flight without substantially increasing airfield and airspace congestion. However, most of the airlines using the A380 are planning to fly it with less than the maximum number of seats, an attempt to cater to business and first-class travelers who provide a larger profit margin. If airlines had chosen to maximize passenger capacity, airports would likely experience increased revenue from purchases in the terminal. Operational restrictions related to required separation between another aircraft and an A380 might in fact lead to less airfield and airspace operational capacity. Thus, the benefits of having A380 operations are less than originally expected.
7. Unknown, “A List of U.S. Airports That Expect New Airbus Superjumbo Jet Landings in 2008 and Beyond” The Associated Press, October 15, 2007. http://archives.californiaaviation.org/airport/msg42637.html (accessed October 16, 2007).
8. Only a selected number of U.S. airports are expected to serve the A380 in 2008 and beyond. The three U.S. airports that are “very likely” to serve it this year are: 1) John F. Kennedy International, 2) San Francisco International, and 3) Los Angeles International). In Florida, Miami International and Orlando International are planning to serve this aircraft sometime in the future.
9. Jeff Bailey, International Herald Tribune. “U.S. Airlines Watch Fleets Age as They Wait for New Planes” October 27, 2007. Accessed October 30, 2007 Email source.
10. Most of the large U.S. airlines have an aging aircraft fleet after cutting back the purchase of new aircraft following September 11, 2001. The older planes tend to be less comfortable and use more fuel than newer planes. Worldwide, there have been 710 orders for the Boeing 787, with only 86 of those going to U.S. airlines. Of the 165 Airbus A380 orders at the time of this article, none are going to U.S. carriers.
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11. Jason Garcia, “Airbus A380, Biggest Passenger Jet Ever, Visits Orlando,” Orlando Sentinel, November 14, 2007, http://www.orlandosentinel.com/business/orl- bigplane1407nov14,0,397831.story, (accessed March 19, 2008).
12. The A380 landed at Orlando International Airport on November 14, 2007. This marked the first landing of the new aircraft in the southeastern U.S. This gave Orlando International a chance to show that it is prepared to handle New Large Aircraft. The article stated that none of the three international airlines at Orlando with firm A380 orders has plans to utilize the A380 on routes to Orlando within the next five years.
13. Unknown, “Development to Begin on A380-900 in 2010,” The Aero News Network, November 17, 2007, http://www.aero- news.net/news/commair.cfm?ContentBlockID= 71e77d0f-6740-4179-a8a2- e7f3b59938be&Dynamic=1 (accessed March 25, 2008).
14. When the A380-800 reaches full production, development of the A380-900 will begin. Production of this aircraft is anticipated to begin in 2010. This newer version of the A380 will be able hold between 750 to 1,000 seats depending on the configuration. The article notes that Tim Clark, Emirates President, stated that with 1,000 passengers it “could overwhelm airports.”
15. Koh Gui Qing and Daryl Loo, “Boeing Faces Customer Ire for 787 Delays”. February 19, 2008. http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSSP6033720080219 ?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews&sp=true (accessed February 21, 2008).
16. Boeing is facing increasing pressure from airlines and leasing companies who have purchased the B787. Delays in production could force Boeing to pay restitution of several billion dollars to its customers. So far, 857 of the planes have been ordered with an expected delivery time of late 2010 to early 2011, delayed from late 2009 to early 2010.
VLJ Related Articles
1. Andrew Webb, “FAA Gives Go-Ahead to Very Light Jet,” ABQ Journal, July 28, 2006, http://www.abqjournal.com/AED/479385business07-28-06.htm (accessed March 12, 2008).
2. The Eclipse 500 was the first VLJ to receive provisional certification from the FAA; this provisional certification was granted at a ceremony on July 27, 2006. At the time of this article, Eclipse still needed to complete certification testing on fuel tanks, autopilot, and some other avionics functions.
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3. The FAA predicts at least 4,500 VLJs will be in service in the next 10 years. A study by Eclipse predicts that VLJ activity could generate more than $30 billion in economic activity and support more than 189,000 jobs by 2017.
4. Thomas Smith, “VLJs – Pain or Blessing? Too Early to Tell,” AirportBusiness.com, March 22, 2007, http://www.airportbusiness.com/online/article.jsp?id=11013&site Section=54 (accessed March 22, 2007).
5. It is unclear what affect VLJs will have on the overall aviation fleet. Some industry experts think that the FAA’s prediction of 5,000 VLJs in the next several years is overly optimistic. VLJs could create challenges for airports and FBOs. DayJet plans to have a fleet of 300 Eclipse 500s within the next two years. At the time of this article, DayJet was operating in Florida at the cities of Boca Raton, Gainesville, Lakeland, Pensacola, and Tallahassee.
6. Adrian Sanz, “On-Demand Airline Plans to Use Very Light Jets,” Aviation.com, August 6, 2007, http://www.aviation.com/business/ap_070805_vljsdayjet.html (accessed August 28, 2007).
7. This article reviews DayJet's business plan, explaining how it will operate its pricing as an “on-demand” service. It mentions that DayJet will use VLJs for its operations, specifically the Eclipse 500. DayJet service is expected to appeal to business travelers traveling to smaller regional destinations not able to support scheduled commercial airline flights.
8. Editorial Staff, “Eclipse Speaks on First Commercial 500 Flight,” AVweb Biz, Volume 5, Number 32, August 22, 2007, http://www.avweb.com/eletter/archives/ bizav/937-full.html #195960 (accessed August 23, 2007).
9. Using the Eclipse 500, North American Jet Charter flew its first two passengers from Chicago to Baltimore on August 17, 2007. DayJet planned to start its service the following week.
10. Tony Quesada, “Very Light Jets Taking Off,” Jacksonville Business Journal, February 1, 2008, http://jacksonville.bizjournals.com/jacksonville/stories/2008/02/04/ story2.html?b=1202101200 (accessed February 4, 2008).
11. Advanced Disposal Services Inc. is the part owner of the first VLJ at Jacksonville International, an Eclipse 500. Of the 103 Eclipse 500s that have been built, 28 have been received by DayJet, based in Boca-Raton.
12. Editor, “Adam Aircraft Shut-Down Confirmed,” The Aero News Network, February 11, 2008, http://www.aero-
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news.net/index.cfm?ContentBlockID=1746120e-7267-47db-b1a7- e301b457a53f&Dynamic=1&Range=NOW&FromDate=2%2F11%2F08 &ToDate=02%2F12%2F08&Category=%2Findex.cfm, (accessed March 22, 2008).
13. Pending further funding negotiations, Adam Aircraft Industries halted their operations on February 11, 2008. They expect to seek further sources of funding and eventually resume operations.
14. Russ Niles, “Adam Aircraft Files for Chapter 7,” Denver Business Journal, February 18, 2008, http://www.bizjournals.com/denver/stories/2008/02/18/daily14.html (accessed March 22, 2008).
15. On February 15, 2008, Adam Aircraft filed for Chapter 7 bankruptcy. The company employed 800 at one time at its facilities located at Centennial Airport in Colorado and in Ogden, Utah.
16. Russ Niles, “DayJet Adds Three More Hubs,” AVweb Biz, Volume 6, Number 9, February 27, 2008, http://www.avweb.com/eletter/archives/bizav/1059.html (accessed March 22, 2008).
17. DayJet is a “per seat, on demand” flight service that uses 28 Eclipse 500s to carry passengers around the southeastern U.S. They have expanded their operations into Georgia and Alabama, increasing their number of operational hubs, known as DayPorts, to 10. New DayPorts included Opa Locka Airport in the Miami area and airports in Macon, Georgia, and Montgomery, Alabama.
18. Editors, “ATG Stirring Back to Life?” AVweb Biz, Volume 6, Number 10, March 5, 2008, http://www.avweb.com/eletter/archives/bizav/ 1064.html (accessed March 22, 2008).
19. Aviation Technology Group (ATG) has renegotiated with lenders and is looking at certification and production. The “fighter-like” Javelin may appeal to civilian demand but is likely to be more popular as a military trainer.
20. Editorial, “FAA Forecasts Delayed but Steady General Aviation Growth,” AVweb Flash, Volume 14, Number 11b, March 13, 2008, http://www.avweb.com/eletter/ archives/avflash/1069.html (accessed March 13, 2008).
21. The FAA released its 2008 aerospace forecast on March 13, 2008. Growth in general aviation is expected to slow over concerns with the slowing economy, rising fuel prices, and airport congestion. The FAA predicts 5 percent less general aviation flight hours than they did in 2007. VLJs are eventually expected to account for 1/6 of all general aviation flight hours, even though
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their deliveries fell short of the 2006 forecast (143 actual compared to a prediction of 350). However, the FAA still expects 400-500 VLJs to enter the operational fleet every year, eventually reaching 8,145 VLJs in service by 2025.
22. Editors, “New Engine for the D-Jet: Higher Thrust Williams FJ33-4A-19,” The Aero News Network, March 14, 2008, http://www.aero- news.net/index.cfm?Dynamic= 1&Range=RANGE&FromDate=03%2F14%2F2008&ToDate=3%2F14%2F0 8&Category=%2Findex.cfm (accessed March 22, 2008).
23. Diamond Aircraft has selected a different, more powerful engine for its D-Jet. This new engine will provide increased power and allow for potential performance upgrades in the future. This will push the first deliveries of the D-Jet back to second quarter of 2009, instead of late 2008 as previously projected.
Literature Review Summary This literature review focused on technical reports and news articles highlighting issues raised during the development and introduction of Next Generation Aircraft. Timelines showing milestones for the NLA and VLJ program development are included in this section. This study’s literature review paints an uncertain picture of the role Next Generation Aircraft will play in influencing development for the Florida aviation system. Most large commercial airports today can already handle NLA, under certain operating restrictions or FAA modification to standards, as demand dictates, commercial airports in Florida are prepared to and will respond to the needs of NLA. From the literature review, demand and facility impacts from VLJs are more difficult to pinpoint.
One of the studies included in this literature, published by the U.S. DOT Office of Aviation Research, attempted to forecast the changes in airport design that would be caused by the introduction of NLA. The predictions presented in that particular study were echoed by several publications, forecasting that airports would have to make significant infrastructure improvements to accommodate NLA similar to the A380.
So far, however, airport owners have undertaken less extensive runway and taxiway projects than were originally projected. Many airports have applied for, and received, modifications of standards from the FAA. These modifications allow airports to use existing airport facilities and design standards to serve NLA, under certain operating restrictions. As the plans for commercial, charter, and air cargo companies who will fly NLA, and the period for their introduction into the fleet, become clearer, airports in Florida may need improvements to meet the operating requirements of NLA.
VLJ predictions have varied. Most of VLJ aircraft in production have exceeded original budgets, forcing up the original purchase price. One of the assumptions in prior VLJ forecasting was that this aircraft would be more affordable than other small aircraft, making
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Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task I: Literature Review them popular among a wide variety of pilots. The rise in costs leaves some uncertainty as to the extent of and the applications for future use of VLJs.
The literature review has shown that from aircraft concept, through certification, to the time the aircraft is actually flying is lengthy and sometime unpredictable. Certainly, the number of manufacturers for the VLJ has fallen from initial estimates. Initially, it was assumed that massive airport redevelopment would be required for NLA; for the foreseeable future, it appears that limited use of these aircraft may be accommodated through much less disruptive and expensive means.
In 2008, predictions for flights by NLA are already behind, and the number of VLJs in the operating fleet is well under the previous estimates by the FAA and manufacturers. Nevertheless, Next Generation Aircraft are here and the numbers of these planes operating in Florida will continue to climb. As a leader in aviation, Florida needs to take pro-active steps to insure its airports are ready to meet the needs of Next Generation Aircraft.
Subsequent portions of this report will help the Florida Department of Transportation to better understand anticipated activity levels for both NLA and VLJs, the economic benefits tied to the operation of these new aircraft, the facilities and services that are needed or desirable to meet operator needs, and the readiness of Florida airports to continue to be at the forefront of aviation.
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Figure I-1 New Large Aircraft (NLA) Milestones
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Figure I-2 Very Light Jet (VLJ) Milestones
FDOT Aviation Office I-22 Task II Aircraft Characteristics
Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task II: Aircraft Characterization
Introduction A key step in determining the readiness of Florida airports to accommodate Next Generation Aircraft is having a clear understanding of aircraft characteristics within both the New Large Aircraft (NLA) and Very Light Jet (VLJ) categories. To facilitate this objective, characteristics for NLA and VLJs were compiled. The purpose of the aircraft characterization summary is to provide information regarding the physical and operating capabilities of the aircraft under study.
As these aircraft are entering the worldwide operational fleet, they should over the next ten years become prevalent in the aircraft fleet at Florida airports. Thus, it is necessary to determine what changes, if any, Florida airport sponsors may need to make in the coming years to accommodate increasing numbers of NLA and VLJs.
Using Internet searches and direct contact with aircraft manufacturers, a summary of each aircraft’s physical specifications and operating capabilities was compiled. This task is presented in two categories: NLA and VLJs. The tables and figures included in this chapter present information that is currently available for each aircraft type. The information is presented for the following three categories for the respective Next Generation Aircraft group:
• Physical Characteristics • Operational Characteristics • Order Information
Additionally, characteristics for both NLA and VLJs are sometimes compared with existing aircraft. Perspective of how different or similar the Next Generation Aircraft are to the existing fleet is gained from this comparison.
Future tasks of this study utilize the information presented in this section. For example, the reported operating range for NLA serves as a key criterion for evaluating the potential for new international air service. Additionally, airport facility requirements are influenced by the physical and operating characteristics presented herein.
This section also presents summary information on aircraft orders as available through April 2008. The information is useful in determining which aircraft models will be most prevalent
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in the future fleet for both NLA and VLJs in Florida. Subsequent report sections discuss NLA orders in more detail in support of activity outlook discussions.
New Large Aircraft Characteristics NLA are targeted for use by commercial airline, charter companies, and air cargo providers. The NLA models considered in this study are made of lighter materials than older aircraft, have better fuel efficiency and longer operating ranges than many of the existing commercial transport aircraft models, such as the Airbus A330 or Boeing 767. The fuel efficiency savings of NLA over existing aircraft models is of importance for airlines particularly given the significant increase in fuel prices over the last 18 months. For this study, NLA are defined as the new wide-body transport aircraft under development by Airbus and Boeing. Next Generation Aircraft included in this study’s NLA group are the:
• Airbus A350-800/900/1000 XWB • Airbus A380 • Boeing 747-8/8F • Boeing 787-3/8/9
Figure II-1 (on the following page) presents photos or design renderings of these aircraft.
It is important to examine the characteristics of these aircraft, as their size and approach speed will directly affect the Airport Reference Code (ARC) for Florida airports. Runway and taxiway standards are directly related to the aircraft approach categories and aircraft design groups included in the ARC. The information presented herein helps to determine which airports are currently able to accommodate NLA as well as to identify changes that may be needed at some airports to accommodate NLA.
Three types of data were collected for each of the NLA models, as described below:
• Physical Characteristics – addresses the spatial requirements for each aircraft model such as the wingspan, tail height and turning radius. • Operational Characteristics – covers criteria such as runway lengths, aircraft range and passenger capacity. • Order History – summarizes information regarding customer orders through April 2008 with a focus on identifying domestic versus foreign-flag usage of NLA.
All of the aircraft noted above are in various stages of production, ranging from the development and certification processes to being currently in operation. The A380 entered service in late 2007. At the time of this study, the status of each aircraft had an impact on the availability of information relating to each plane’s physical and operating characteristics. Where data are currently unavailable, notes are provided throughout this NLA section as appropriate.
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Figure II-1 NLA Depictions
A350 XWB Boeing 747-8
A380 taxiing at Boeing 787 Dreamliner Orlando International Airport Sources: Compiled from manufacturer websites in May 2008; A380 photo courtesy of GOAA, November 15, 2007.
Physical Characteristics Table II-1 presents a summary of physical characteristics for the NLA covered by this study. These attributes are important in determining airport infrastructure requirements. For example, the exterior length is important in determination of terminal area spatial requirements. Additionally, the exterior length determines to a great extent the aircraft's passenger capacity, which in turn determines terminal gate and aircraft rescue and firefighting (ARFF) standards. The wingspan and tail height data were collected for use in determining the Airplane Design Group (ADG) for each aircraft.
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Table II-1 NLA Physical Characteristics Wheel FAA Exterior Tail Wheel Track Turning Aircraft Length Wingspan Height Configurati Width Radius Design Aircraft (feet) (feet) (feet) on (feet) (feet) Group A350- 198.8 210.0 55.3 2D 34.7 151 V 800 A350- 219.6 210.0 55.3 2D 34.7 168 V 900 A350- 242.5 210.0 55.3 3D2 35.1 184 V 1000 A380 239.3 261.7 79.6 2D/3D2 47.0 197 VI B747-8 250.7 224.6 64.2 2D/2D2 41.7 172 VI B747-8F 250.7 224.6 64.2 2D/2D2 41.7 172 VI B787-3 186.1 170.4 55.5 2D 38.1 138 V B787-8 186.1 197.3 55.5 2D 38.1 138 V B787-9 206.1 207.8 55.9 2D 38.1 154 V Notes: 2D: Two Dual Wheels in Tandem Main Gear with Dual Wheel Nose Gear, B787 2D/2D2: Two Dual Wheels in Tandem Main Gear/Two Dual Wheels in Tandem Body Gear with Dual Wheel Nose Gear, B747 2D/3D2: Two Dual Wheels in Tandem Main Gear/Three Dual Wheels in Tandem Body Gear with Dual wheel Nose Gear, A380 Sources: Compiled by Wilbur Smith Associates from the respective manufacturer’s websites, April 2008.
The exterior length of NLA models were compared with existing commercial transport models to provide a perspective on how NLA match up against the current fleet. The results are summarized below from shortest to longest in length with the exterior length of the existing model being shown parenthetically unless otherwise noted:
1. B787 Variants: The B787-3 and -8 models are similar in length to older aircraft models such as the DC-8-71 (187.4 feet) and the DC-10-10 (182.3 feet) while the B787-9 is most similar in length to the MD-11 (202.2 feet). 2. A350 Variants: The A350-800 falls in between the length of the A340-200 (194.8 feet) and the B747-400ER (201.3 feet). The A350-900 is most similar to the A340-500 (219.6 feet) and falls in between the lengths of the B777- 200ER (209.1 feet) and the B747-400 (229.2 feet). The A350-1000 has an exterior length most comparable to the B777-300 having a length of 242.3 feet. 3. A380: This NLA has a similar length to the B777-300 and the A340-600 at 242.3 feet and 245.5 feet, respectively. The A350-1000 will be slightly longer than the A380 by approximately four feet. 4. B747-8/8F: The B747-8/8F will be the longest aircraft in the commercial transport category at 250.7 feet.
The exterior length the NLA variants considered in this study are comparable to the existing fleet, with the B747-8/8F model being the one exception having a length approximately five feet longer than the existing aircraft models.
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A similar comparison was conducted for the wingspan of each NLA. The results of the wingspan comparison are presented below with the wingspan of existing models being shown parenthetically in some cases:
1. B787 Variants: The B787-3 has similar wingspan dimensions as compared to the 767-400ER (170.5 feet) and the MD-11 (170.6 feet). The B787-8 model has a wingspan similar to that of the B747-300 (195.7 feet) and Airbus models A330-300 and the A340-200/300s of 198.0 feet. The B787-9 model’s wingspan is similar to the A340-500/600 models, which have a wingspan of 207.8 feet. 2. A350 Variants: All three have the same wingspan that falls between the A340-600 (208.2 feet) and the B747-400 (213.0 feet). 3. B747-8/8F: This new B747 version has a wingspan that is approximately 11 feet wider than the B747-400, which was previously the aircraft having the widest wingspan in the existing commercial fleet. 4. A380: With a wingspan of 261.7 feet, the A380 far exceeds existing aircraft wingspans by almost 50 feet and will exceed that of the B747-8 variants by almost 40 feet.
The wingspan is a key aircraft characteristic used in the determination of airport design standards. As such, airport sponsors expecting service with the A380 and B747-8/8F models may have a need to undertake airfield improvements to accommodate these planes.
Tail heights for the A350 and B787 variants are similar to existing aircraft models, such as A340-300 (55.7 feet) and the B767-400 (55.8 feet). The tail height for the B747-8 model is the same as existing B747 model at approximately 62.2 feet. However, the A380's tail height of 79.6 feet exceeds the heights of existing models by approximately 15 feet.
The data presented on wheel configuration, wheel track width and turning radius was collected for ease of reference associated with pavement strength and pavement fillet requirements. The A350 models, the B787 variants and the B747-800 characteristics for these areas are similar to existing aircraft.
The A380 is the one NLA considered in this study that has characteristics in these three areas that are significantly different from the existing commercial transport fleet. Its wheel configuration is the first of its kind to be utilized on a transport aircraft. This configuration includes 22 wheels, which is an important design feature of the A380 as these wheels distribute the aircraft's significant operating weight over a greater pavement area. This weight distribution keeps pavement load requirements similar to those required by the current fleet.
Operational Characteristics Data regarding various operational characteristics for each NLA were collected, and Table II-2 presents this information. The characteristics are linked to each other. For example, the maximum fuel load and the maximum takeoff weight (MTOW) helps to determine the aircraft's operating range. The capacity for fuel, passengers and cargo is tied not only to aircraft dimensions, but also to the MTOW. These characteristics are used in typical airport
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Table II-2 NLA Operational Characteristics Maximum Cargo Takeoff Takeoff Landing Maximum Fuel Load Maximum Capacities Weight Length1 Length1 Range (US Seating (Cubic Aircraft (Pounds) (Feet) (Feet) (nm) Gallons) Capacity Feet) A350-800 540,000 9,000 5,900 8,300 39,630 270 4,508 A350-900 584,000 9,500 5,900 8,100 39,630 314 6,088 A350-1000 650,000 10,600 5,900 8,000 39,630 350 7,352 A380 1,234,600 9,000 6,000 8,200 81,890 8002 6,045 B747-8 975,000 10,500 7,200 8,000 63,510 465 5,705 B747-8F 975,000 10,500 7,900 4,420 60,210 N/A 29,426 B787-3 364,000 6,000 5,000 3,050 11,068 330 4,400 B787-8 484,000 9,000 5,300 8,200 33,528 250 4,400 B787-9 540,000 10,000 5,700 8,500 33,528 290 5,400 Notes: 1) Takeoff and landing lengths reflect the certificated balanced field lengths at standard conditions for the A380 and the anticipated balanced field lengths for the other models currently in development. 2) A380 seating based on typical seating capacity for aircraft on order is 525. MTOW= Maximum Takeoff Weight nm=Nautical Miles N/A=Not Applicable Sources: Compiled by Wilbur Smith Associates from technical data available on the respective manufacturers’ websites (March 2008) and from direct contacts with manufacturer representatives, March/April 2008.
The majority of the operational characteristics for the NLA reviewed in this report are on par with existing commercial transport aircraft. The following list presents a brief discussion of these characteristics by aircraft model:
1. A350 Variants: The three A350 variants have MTOWs comparable to existing B777 and A340 variants. The runway length requirements for the three A350 variants are similar to the existing wide-body fleet. The maximum range for the three A350 variants exceeds that of existing aircraft, such as the A340-200/300 (7,750 nautical miles) and the B777-200LR (7,700 nautical miles). 2. A380: Runway lengths for landing and takeoff are comparable to the other NLA considered in this study as well with existing wide-body aircraft, such as the B767-300ER and the A340-500/600. The A380's MTOW far exceeds any commercial transport aircraft in the fleet today by over 250,000 pounds. While not reported in detail in this document, other operational weights of the A380, such as for taxiing and for apron parking, also far exceed the operational weights of the existing transport fleet. The operational weights for the A380 were originally of some concern for aviation agencies and airport operators due to the possibility of needing to increase pavement strength to accommodate the aircraft. However, the ultimate A380 design incorporated a multi-axle landing gear configuration having over 20 wheels. This gear layout disperses the extreme weight of the A380 over a broader pavement area, thus, bringing pavements loads at each wheel into a range with existing aircraft.
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Additionally, some concerns were expressed early on regarding the potential of 800 passengers per flight, specifically regarding terminal area requirements, such as gate hold areas, baggage claim and security. The extent of terminal impacts from increased passenger loads is discussed in subsequent report sections. 3. B747-8: The range exceeds that of the existing fleet, but is comparable to other NLA models considered in this study. Its runway length requirements are typical of existing wide-body aircraft. The B747-8 fits in the gap for passenger capacities between existing B747 models and the A380. 4. B747-8F: The B747-8F is the only all-cargo version NLA still under active development. This freighter has an increased MTOW and an increased payload over other 747 freighter versions by approximately 40,000 pounds, yet has a similar operating range and shorter runway length requirements, as reported by Boeing. 5. B787 Variants: The operational range for the B787-8 and -9 variants exceeds the existing fleet; the B787-9 will become the transport aircraft with the longest range upon its entrance to service, exceeding existing aircraft ranges by approximately 750 nautical miles. The B787-3 has a range more comparable to the A320-200 and the B737-600/800/900 models. This reflects its intended utilization in high-demand markets with relative short ranges, but this aircraft would still be capable of traveling across the U.S. or for international flights from Florida to portions of Canada, Mexico, Central America and South America.
As noted, these operational characteristics are important in the identification of facility requirements, which are discussed in Section III. In addition, these characteristics are helpful in identification of potential air service markets. The following identifies the key facility or service associated with the operational characteristics of NLA reviewed in this report:
• Maximum takeoff weight: Runway, taxiway and apron pavements • Takeoff and landing runway lengths: Runway length • Maximum range: Potential air service markets • Fuel load: Onsite fuel capacity • Maximum seating capacity: Evaluation of terminal facilities
Orders Table II-3 summarizes order information through the end of April 2008 as reported by each manufacturer for the four NLA considered in this study. Order data was broken down by model variant as well as by domestic and foreign-flag carriers. The breakout shows that the majority, or approximately 86 percent, of all NLA orders have been placed by foreign- flagged carriers. Orders placed by aircraft leasing companies were included in their respective origin nation for this analysis, as no announcements were located identifying the potential lease customer. To date, no U.S. carrier has ordered an A380 or a B747-8 (passenger version), although a U.S.-based, aircraft leasing company, has ten A380s on order.
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Table II-3 NLA Orders through April 2008 Domestic Total Foreign-flagged Key Foreign-flagged Carrier Key Domestic Aircraft Orders Carrier Orders Buyers/Orders Orders Buyers/Orders Qatar Airways/20 US Airways/18 A350-800 156 115 31 Aeroflot/18 Hawaiian/6 Emirates/50 ILFC/8 A350-900 176 162 Qatar Airways/40 14 US Airways/4 China Airlines/14 Qatar Airways/20 A350-1000 40 40 0 None Emirates/20 Emirates/58 A380 192 182 Qantas/20 10 ILFC/10 Lufthansa/14 Boeing B747-8 27 20 Lufthansa/20 7 Business Jet/7 Cargolux/13 B747-8F 78 62 Emirates/10 16 Atlas Air/12 Korean Air/5 All Nippon Airways/30 B787-3 43 43 0 None JAL International/13 Air Canada/37 ILFC/67 Qatar Airways/30 B787-8 645 537 108 Northwest/18 Air India/27 Continental/8 TUI/11 Qantas/50 Continental/17 B787-9 208 180 Singapore Airlines/20 28 ILFC/7 British Airways/16 Totals 1,565 1,352 --- 213 --- Notes: ILFC=International Leasing and Finance Company Sources: Compiled by Wilbur Smith Associates from manufacturers websites, April 2008.
As shown, the most popular NLA models have been the A350 and the B787 variants, which have order totals of 372 and 896, respectively. This is not surprising as these models have passenger capacities comparable to the existing wide-body aircraft now most utilized by air carriers, such as A330, A340, B767, and B777. Orders for the B787 have outpaced any other new aircraft ever to be produced in the commercial transport category.
In addition, airlines and leasing companies with the most orders for each aircraft were identified. Several of these airlines currently operate at Florida airports, including Lufthansa, Air Canada, British Airways, Virgin Atlantic, and US Airways. These carriers could use NLA in the future on routes to and from Florida, and a few have announced their intention to do so.
NLA Concluding Remarks Each NLA model covered in this study has unique characteristics driven by their intended utilization by commercial carriers. Many of the physical and operating characteristics, other than maximum operating range, are similar to at least one or more aircraft models in the current operating fleet. This is an important facet to consider in the following report sections which determine facility requirements and assess the readiness of Florida airports to accommodate these NLA. The increased operating range over the existing fleet is primarily
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Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task II: Aircraft Characterization driven by the key characteristics of Next Generation Aircraft—use of composites, improved engine efficiency and improved aerodynamic structural design.
Three of the nine model variants considered in this study, the A380, B747-8 and B7478-F, do have at least one physical or operating characteristic that exceeds models in the current aircraft fleet; implying that these models will drive some facet of airport facility improvement needs. Thus, airport sponsors anticipating operations by these NLA aircraft variants should evaluate and prepare their airports for the needs of these planes.
Very Light Jet Characteristics The idea of the VLJ surfaced in the early to mid-1990s. This aircraft was envisioned to fill the gap in the general aviation fleet between single and multi-engine piston and turbine aircraft and the existing entry-level small business jet. These aircraft were anticipated to be utilized in the Small Aircraft Transportation System (SATS). As noted in this study’s literature review, the SATS program envisioned the use of technologically advanced small aircraft by on-demand and private owner/operators to interconnect general aviation and smaller commercial service airports throughout the country. Several of the technological advancements pursued under SATS related to navigational services that are in the process of initial implementation. For example, the use of Global Positioning System (GPS) for enroute and arrival services through the Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) will be tested at Florida's airports starting in 2008, with a planned expansion by FAA across the nation over the coming years.
VLJs are defined as an aircraft having a maximum takeoff weight of 10,000 pounds or less. These planes are approved for single pilot operations and are priced below entry-level, traditional business jet models. Multiple new aircraft manufacturers were formed, and several existing aircraft manufacturers expanded into the VLJ market. Interest in this new class of aircraft has been high, even outside the aviation industry.
Figure II-2 presents photos of various VLJ aircraft. Table II-4 lists the 14 VLJ manufacturers and the 16 models covered by this study. Eight new VLJ manufacturing companies are producing nine of the 16 VLJ models. Cessna, Cirrus, Diamond, Embraer, Epic and Piper are the only VLJ manufacturers who also manufacture existing models for other aircraft types.
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Figure II-2 VLJ Depictions
AAI Acquisitions Inc. A700 ATG Javelin MK-10
Cessna Mustang Cirrus The Jet*
Diamond D-Jet Eclipse 500
Embraer Phenom 100 Epic Elite Jet
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Figure II-2 (continued) VLS Depictions
Epic Victory Jet Eviation EV-20 Vantage
Excel SportJet Honda HondaJet
Maverick SoloJET Piper PiperJet
Spectrum Freedom S-40 Spectrum Independence S-33 * After this report was prepared, this aircraft was renamed as follows: Cirrus Vision SJ50 Sources: Manufacturer Websites, May 2008.
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Table II-4 Very Light Jet Manufacturer and Models Manufacturer Model Manufacturer Model AAI Acquisition, Inc.1 A700 Epic Aircraft Victory Jet (Adam Aircraft) Aviation Technology Javelin Executive Jet Eviation Jets EV-20 Vantage Jet Group2 Cessna Aircraft Co. Mustang Excel-Jet Ltd. Sport-Jet Cirrus Design Corp. The Jet Honda Aircraft Company HondaJet Diamond Aircraft D-JET Maverick Jets Solojet Eclipse Aviation 500 Piper Aircraft, Inc. PiperJet Embraer S.A. Phenom 100 Spectrum Aeronautical Freedom S-40 Epic Aircraft Elite Jet Spectrum Aeronautical Independence S-33 Note: 1. Purchased Adam Aircraft during bankruptcy sale in the spring of 2008. 2. ATG filed for bankruptcy in late May 2008. 3. Names in bold text represent established aircraft manufacturers that had existing aircraft in production prior to entering the VLJ market. Sources: Compiled by Wilbur Smith Associates from the websites of the respective manufacturer, March 2008.
The VLJ aircraft models included in this study all fit the standard definition of a VLJ. It should be noted that several manufacturers are producing light jet models that have operating weights several thousand pounds above the VLJ definition of 10,000 pounds. These include Grob Aerospace's spn and Embraer's Phenom 300.
Design and development timeframes vary widely among the VLJ manufacturers listed above. For example, Eclipse Aviation was founded in 1998 and formally announced their program for the Eclipse 500 in 1999. The aircraft received FAA certification in 2007, and this plane is currently in service. Cessna on the other hand was one of the last companies to announce their intention to develop a VLJ-the Mustang-yet one of the first manufacturers to have a VLJ certified and delivered. Other manufacturers are seeking certification, while others are finalizing design or just beginning production of these initial aircraft.
Several VLJ development programs were substantially delayed or abandoned due to certification and financial issues. Since December 2007, two manufacturers, Adam Aircraft and Aviation Technology Group, filed for Chapter 7 bankruptcy. Adam Aircraft sold its assets, with the A700 program being acquired by AAI Acquisition Inc., which intends to pursue finalizing the FAA certification of that model and then entering the production stage. Aviation Technology Group’s (ATG) Javelin program was initially put on hold in December 2007, while the company sought funding to continue. However, in late May 2008, ATG filed for Chapter 7 bankruptcy and will be liquidated. No information was available regarding whether there is a buyer for the rights to complete the Javelin development.
Near the end of this study and too late to include in the full study analysis, Eclipse Aviation announced its intent to offer another VLJ model, the 400. The Eclipse 400 is a single-engine aircraft, priced around $1.35 million (as of June 2008). It has a seating capacity for four persons, including the pilot. Deliveries are anticipated to begin in the fourth quarter of 2011.
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VLJ Anticipated Usage VLJs are expected to be used in Florida by private pilots, as business jets, or on a “for-hire” basis by air taxi operators such, as DayJet. These different uses will translate into different needs at an airport. An individual pilot may need only a single hangar for their aircraft, whereas an air taxi operator might benefit from a larger hangar or a bulk hangar for multiple planes. Runway length is also a consideration for airports supporting VLJs. Aircraft carrying passengers will have a longer runway requirement than VLJs with single pilots.
Physical Characteristics All of the VLJ aircraft considered in this study are very similar in their physical characteristics. The exterior length, wingspan, and tail height measurements of VLJ aircraft considered in this report are presented in Table II-5. These exterior measurements of VLJs are useful for determining spatial requirements for aircraft storage.
Table II-5 VLJ Physical Characteristics Exterior Length Wingspan Tail Height FAA Aircraft Aircraft (Feet) (Feet) (Feet) Design Group Adam A7001 40.7 44.0 9.5 I ATG Javelin2 37.0 25.1 10.6 I Cessna Mustang 40.6 43.2 13.4 I Cirrus The Jet TBD 38.4 TBD I Diamond D-JET 35.1 37.5 11.6 I Eclipse 500 33.1 37.4 11.0 I Embraer Phenom 41.7 40.3 14.3 I 100 Epic Elite Jet 39.9 44.0 12.4 I Epic Victory Jet 33.4 36.3 10.7 I Eviation Vantage TBD TBD TBD TBD Jet Excel Sport-Jet II 34.0 35.2 9.6 I Honda HondaJet 41.7 39.9 13.2 I Maverick Solojet 33.4 36.0 TBD I Piper PiperJet 33.8 44.6 16.5 I Spectrum S-33 45.9 43.3 10.8 I Spectrum S-40 54.0 43.3 13.3 I Averages 38.9 39.3 12.1 N/A Note: 1. Adam Aircraft filed for bankruptcy in February 2008; however, a newly formed company, AAI Acquisitions, purchased the rights to the A700, and is seeking to complete certification. 2. ATG suspended development of the Javelin in December 2007 and filed for bankruptcy in late May 2008. TBD=To Be Determined Sources: Compiled by Wilbur Smith Associates from the respective manufacturers websites in March/April 2008; AvBuyer, “Cirrus Jet Profile,” http://www.avbuyer.com/articles/Article.asp?Id=872, accessed March 2008; and Business Aviation Group, “AdamJet A700,” http://www.businessaviation.com/new/jets.php?id=93, accessed March 2008.
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Operational Characteristics Operational characteristics of aircraft in the VLJ genre vary widely as shown in Table II-6. VLJ aircraft take advantage of the latest aviation technologies to maximize their speed and efficiency. Many VLJ models still under development, like the Epic Elite Jet and the EV-20 Vantage Jet, have not released final operational characteristics for their aircraft. Overall, runway needs, as well as cargo and passenger capacities for the VLJs differ.
Roughly, half of the VLJ models studied have a maximum operating ceiling around 25,000- 28,000 feet. The other VLJs have an operating ceiling around 40,000 feet. The standout in the group would be the Javelin. Designed for one or two pilots, the Javelin would be the fastest VLJ studied with a maximum speed of 500 knots. It also would have the highest operational ceiling at 45,000 feet. Aviation Technology Group, the manufacturer of the Javelin, hopes that this fighter-like aircraft will appeal to the private pilot in the civilian market, should a buyer for the assets of the original manufacturer of this plane be found.
Takeoff and landing distances were collected for use in analyzing airport infrastructure requirements. Both of these figures are needed to determine the ARC for airport design. Additional consideration must be given to constraints placed on air taxi operators using VLJs to carry passengers for hire under the stipulations of FAA 14 CFR Part 135. When a VLJ is being used by a pilot for personal purposes, shorter takeoff and landing distances can be used for flight planning
The enhanced capabilities of VLJs will open up a myriad of new possibilities for flyers. For comparison purposes, the Cessna 182 has a range of 930 nautical miles and a service ceiling of 18,100 feet while VLJs have ranges from 1,000 to 2,000 nautical miles and can easily cruise in the jet route structure. Being certified over FL250 feet allows the VLJ pilot the flexibility to fly over inclement weather that might require considerable deviations to flight paths at lower altitudes. The maximum operating ceiling related to VLJs is 41,000 feet which enables those aircraft to operate on the same routes as commercial aircraft.
Typical ranges for VLJs from Florida airports are depicted in Figure II-3.
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Table II-6 VLJ Operational Characteristics Takeoff Field Landing Field NBAA IFR Max. Operating Aircraft Length (Feet) Length (Feet) Range (nm) Ceiling (Feet) Adam A700 3,400 2,520 1,100 41,000 ATG Javelin 3,200 4,000 1,220 45,000 Cessna Mustang 3,110 2,380 1,150 41,000 Cirrus The Jet 3,110 2,380 1,000 25,000 Diamond D-JET 2,034 3,000 1,351 25,000 Eclipse 5001 2,342 2,250 1,125 41,000 Embraer Phenom 100 3,400 3,000 1,160 41,000 Epic Elite Jet TBD TBD 1,600 41,000 Epic Victory Jet TBD TBD 1,100 28,000 Eviation Vantage Jet 2,500* 2,500* TBD 41,000 Excel Sport-Jet II 2,300 1,800 1,100 28,000 Honda HondaJet 3,120 2,500 1,180 43,000 Maverick Solojet 1,575 1,837 TBD 31,000 Piper PiperJet 3,120 2,500 1,300 35,000 Spectrum S-33 3,000 3,000 2,000 45,000 Spectrum S-40 3,000 3,000 2,250 45,000 Notes: 1. Balanced field (SL; ISA; MTOW) nm=Nautical Miles TBD = To Be Determined Sources: Compiled by Wilbur Smith Associates from manufacturer’s websites, March 2008; ATG Javelin takeoff and landing lengths, http://www.technologynewsdaily.com/, accessed March 2008; and Embraer Phenom and Diamond D-JET takeoff and landing lengths, http://www.vljmag.com/, accessed March 2008.
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Figure II-3 VLJ Range from Florida
Source: Wilbur Smith Associates, May 2008.
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Cargo and seating capacities vary widely between VLJ models. VLJs are meant to transport ten passengers or less, with minimal cargo. Table II-7 provides additional information on VLJ operating characteristics for speed, fuel, maximum takeoff weight, and seating capacity
Table II-7 Additional VLJ Operational Characteristics Max Max Takeoff Seating Speed Fuel Load Weight Capacities Aircraft (Knots) (Pounds) (Pounds) (Max) Adam A700 340 2,647 9,350 8 ATG Javelin 500 1,914 6,900 2 Cessna Mustang 340 3,263 8,645 6 Cirrus The Jet ~300 1,800 TBD 7 Diamond D-JET 315 1,740 4,700 5 Eclipse 500 370 1,698 5,995 6 Embraer Phenom 380 NA 9,700 8 100 Epic Elite Jet 412 1,330 7,700 8 Epic Victory Jet 320 900 5,500 5 424 Eviation Vantage (@36,000 2,750 9,250 10 Jet ft) Excel Sport-Jet II 385 1,435 4,900 5 420 Honda HondaJet 2,300 9,200 8 (@FL300) Maverick Solojet 350 2,050+ 6,150 5 Piper PiperJet 360 800 7,000 7 Spectrum S-33 425 2,730 7,500 9 Spectrum S-40 440 3,600 9,550 11 Sources: Compiled by Wilbur Smith Associates from manufacturer’s websites March 2008, and VLJ Magazine, “Cirrus The Jet,” http://www.vljmag.com/, accessed March 2008.
Orders VLJ entrance into the marketplace has thus far been staggered. A few models like the Cessna Mustang and the Eclipse 500 have already entered service, while other models are still in the FAA certification process or are only in the development stage. The Eclipse 500 has received the most orders so far, and this VLJ is already in service being flown by several on-demand air taxi providers. In contrast, Adam Aircraft and Javelin both declared bankruptcy early in 2008. Javelin is currently searching for funding in order to complete their VLJ model, and while Adam Aircraft reopened in May under a new owner, its future remains unclear as the firm struggles with bankruptcy negotiations.
Information on aircraft price and orders to date was not available for all aircraft models. Not every company has released their order book. Prices of VLJs range from the Cirrus, The Jet, at approximately $1.0 million to the Honda HondaJet or Spectrum Independence S-33 each at approximately $3.65 million. One of the original concepts envisioned by the NASA-led SATS consortium was a target price for VLJs of approximately $1 million. Almost all
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models are selling much higher than that. Production data regarding the VLJs considered in this study is delineated in Table II-8. The years shown on the chart shows the price in dollars for that year.
Table II-8 VLJ Anticipated Production Numbers Certification Orders Estimated Aircraft First Flight Date (as of 03/08) Key Buyers Cost* (Millions) Magnum Jet, AAAI A700 July 2003 TBD 400 $2.25 POGO September ATG Javelin TBD 153 Not reported $3.29 2005 September Cessna Mustang April 2005 250 Not reported $2.60 2006 Cirrus The Jet July 2008 2010 150 Not reported ~$1.00 Airline 2nd quarter Diamond D-JET April 2006 125 Transport $1.47 2008 Professionals December DayJet, Eclipse 500 July 2006 2,500 $1.59 2004 LinearAir Wondair, Eagle Creek Aviation, Magnum Jet, Embraer Phenom 1st quarter 2008 325 ABC Taxi Aero, $2.85 (2006) 100 2007 Gold Aviation Services, JetBird 4th quarter N/A Epic Elite Jet 2008 Not reported $2.35 (2006) 2006 Epic Victory Jet TBD TBD N/A Not reported $1.3-1.5 (2007) 4th quarter N/A Eviation Vantage Jet 2007/2008 Not reported $2.99(2008) 2006 Excel Sport-Jet II May 2006 2008 N/A Not reported $1.2 (2008) December Honda HondaJet 2009/2010 100 Not reported $3.65 (2006) 2003 Maverick Solojet Unreported 2009 N/A Not reported $1.25 (2006) Piper PiperJet 2008 2009 180 Not reported $2.20 (2006) Spectrum January 2006 2010 N/A Jetpool $3.65 (current) Independence S-33 Notes: *Costs inflated to 2008 dollars. Sources: Compiled by Wilbur Smith Associates from manufacturer’s websites March 2008 and Technology News Daily, “Javelin Executive Jet (Mk-1),” http://www.technologynewsdaily.com/node/3631, accessed March 2008; http://www.aviationweek.com/ March 2008; EAA AirVenture Online, “Epic introduces two new jets,” http://www.airventure.org/2007/3tue24/epic.html, accessed March 2008, LightJetAge “Excel Sport Jet,” http://lightjetage.com/excel-sport-jet-emerging-aircraft-67.html, accessed March 2008; and GIZMODO, “Maverick Solo Jet: Fastest Personal Flyer, Plus Jets We Love,” http://gizmodo.com/gadgets.gadgets/maverick-solo-jet-fastest-personal-flyer-plus- jets-we-love-219075.php, accessed March 2008.
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Aircraft Characterization Summary One purpose of the Next Generation Aircraft study is to provide an initial assessment of the overall readiness of Florida airports to accommodate NLA and VLJs. The objective of this Aircraft Characterization summary is to provide information regarding the physical and operating capabilities of various NLA and VLJ aircraft. This information will be useful in future planning, as airports make adjustments to handle Next Generation Aircraft.
The information gathered here presents a broad overview of the most likely NLA and VLJ models to use Florida airports. The two main NLA manufacturers, Boeing and Airbus, have each designed several different NLA to accommodate varying commercial routes and needs. These new aircraft are generally lighter than existing large aircraft, are more fuel efficient, and can hold higher volumes of passengers and cargo. Many airlines focused on replacing older aircraft fleets see NLA as an investment that will cut operating costs and help to raise profit margins. Domestic airlines are likely to use NLA on their high-volume and high- demand domestic routes. However, NLA are expected to be used primarily by foreign-flag carriers on their international routes. These aircraft could help to bring more international visitors to Florida’s larger international airports such as Miami, Orlando, and Tampa.
VLJs should not put any extraordinary demand on airport infrastructure, and should “fit” easily into the current airport and airspace system in Florida. Designed for business and air taxi operations, it is assumed that VLJs will fly primarily to and from small commercial and many general aviation airports in Florida. Due to their size, VLJs will put minimal strain on airport infrastructure such as runways and apron areas. Subsequent tasks will assess how many of Florida’s airports have the facilities to currently accommodate VLJs.
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Task III Facility Requirements
Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task III: Facility Requirements
Introduction
This section provides a summary of facility and service related needs for Next Generation Aircraft. To some extent, information presented in this section is a direct result of aircraft characteristics presented in Section II. As with other sections of this report, facility and service needs vary dramatically between NLA and VLJs and, therefore, are reported separately in this section.
Facility and service needs reported in this section rely heavily on available data from the actual aircraft manufacturers, the FAA, and to some extent the operators who plan to fly either NLA or VLJs. Since both NLA and VLJ aircraft are just entering the operational fleet, needs for facilities and services presented in this section are subject to change and refinement.
Many of the facility enhancements needed to accommodate the NLA that are expected to begin operating at Florida airports (Orlando International and Miami International) in the near-term have already been completed or are underway. As Section V of this report summarizes, Florida airports may expect higher volumes of NLA to serve the state in the future. This may mean that additional airports could need to prepare themselves for NLA or that airports now expecting NLA may need to make additional improvements to serve more frequent NLA activity.
Part of the attractiveness of VLJs is their ability to operate using facilities that are already in place at many airports. While VLJs may be “capable” of operating at airports with minimal facilities and services in place, both private and on-demand operators may find that it is “desirable” to have basic levels of both services and facilities in place where they fly. Facilities and service outlined in this section are those needed to enhance operating safety and cater to the needs of pilots and passengers traveling on this Next Generation Aircraft.
NLA Facility Requirements
Facility needs for NLA are continuing to evolve. As was alluded to in Section II, some of the facilities that were first thought to be needed to accommodate NLA have been scaled back. This has taken place as NLA have actually been produced and started to fly so that their “real
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world” operating characteristics and needs could be better determined. Actual operating characteristics for NLA have been used to refine their facility needs.
To help establish a context for the information presented in this section of the report, facility needs for NLA are sometimes compared to those for current large aircraft (such as the Boeing 757 or 767) that now operate in Florida on a regular basis.
Information presented in this section relies on facility related needs obtained from the manufacturers of the four main NLA considered in this analysis. In addition, applicable and available information from FAA advisory circulars was referenced in preparation of NLA facility needs. It is worth noting that the FAA has revised some of their earlier guidance as it relates to facilities for NLA. Recognizing the cost associated with accommodating infrequent operations by NLA, the FAA has offered some flexibility for airports to accommodate NLA with modifications to standards.
For airports planning to accommodate NLA, more in-depth analysis would be needed based on the specific type of NLA the airport plans to accommodate. Information presented in this section is useful for those airports that may serve NLA in the future. As master plans and/or airport layout plans at these airports are updated, facility information presented in this section can provide general guidance on changes that may need to be considered to serve NLA.
NLA Requirements This section provides an initial assessment of the facility characteristics needed to support the four NLA identified for this study. These characteristics can be compared with facilities currently available and planned for future construction at the Florida airports that anticipate NLA service, whether that service is scheduled, charter or attributed to NLA diversions. Four NGA models were analyzed to the extent that their specific or unique facility requirements are known to date. The facility needs/requirements for each of the following functional areas were considered:
• Airfield • Apron • Terminal • Ground Handling • ARFF Services • Cargo Requirements
Facility needs in each of these areas were considered for each of the four NLA aircraft listed below:
• Airbus A350 (-800, -900, and -1000) • Airbus A380 • Boeing 747-8 (and 747-8F freighter) • Boeing 787 Dreamliner (-3, -8, and -9)
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Facility information is summarized in Table III-1 and Table III-2 regarding each NLA aircraft model. Facility information is presented in these two tables to the extent that information was available from the manufacturer or another reliable source, such as the Federal Aviation Administration.
Airfield Requirements Runway Length The runway length required to accommodate new large aircraft ranges between 9,000 feet and 10,600 feet for maximum take-off weight during standard conditions at mean sea level. Each planning manual published by the specific aircraft manufacturer also includes runway length charts for an increase in temperature above the standard day temperature of 59ºF. Depending upon variations in temperature, runway takeoff length could increase by 500 or more feet above the reported lengths for standard conditions. As noted in the aircraft characteristics section (Section II), the required runway length is comparable to that required to support the existing fleet of wide-body commercial aircraft that now operates at airports in Florida.
Runway Width Runway width requirements for the new large aircraft have been changed from initial estimates developed by the FAA. Initially, 200-foot widths were identified for the A380 with 50-foot stabilized shoulders; this width was identified when the aircraft was being designed. Once the A380 began flying and actual testing was conducted, the FAA issued Engineering Brief No. 65A stating that 150-foot runway widths with at least 50-foot shoulders are sufficient for the operating requirements of the plane.
Currently, the FAA states that the B747-8 needs 200-foot runway widths with 40-foot shoulders. However, this runway width may be revised once the aircraft flies and actual testing can be conducted. It should be noted that the FAA recommends that new runways designed to accommodate the A380 and B747-8 aircraft should be planned and developed at a width of 200 feet.
Separation Standards According to FAA Advisory Circular 150/5300-13, Airport Design, the separation distance between the runway and taxiway for NLA, with approaches down to ½ mile visibility, is 400 feet for Group V aircraft (A350 and B787) and 500 feet if the approach is less then ½ mile visibility minimums. For Group VI aircraft (A380 and B747-8), the separation distance should be 500 feet for approaches down to ½ mile visibility and 550 feet for approaches less than ½ mile visibility. There is also an adjustment for separation standards for airport elevation, but this is negligible for Florida airports.
The taxiway to taxiway centerline separation is also based on the FAA AC. The circular calls for 267 feet of taxiway separation for Group V aircraft and 324 feet for Group VI aircraft. It should be noted that more detailed calculations for taxiway separation distances are provided by FAA that result in less demanding separations, but separations that are below the standard require a modification to standards determination.
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Pavement Strength Runway and taxiway strength requirements are different for each aircraft due to weight and wheel configuration. However, all of the new large aircraft need less pavement strength than the B747-400. This is due to more complex wheel configurations, such as the “Two Dual Wheels in Tandem Main Gear/Three Dual Wheels in Tandem Body Gear” on the A380. This more complex wheel configuration distributes the aircraft’s weight over 20 wheels.
Apron Requirements The apron/gate area requirements to accommodate NLA have been estimated based on an assumed 25-foot wingspan to wingspan linear configuration and a 50-foot nose to terminal distance to accommodate pushback tug positioning. The apron area needs for NLA range from 5,100 square yards for the Boeing 787-3 up to 9,200 square yards for the Airbus 380. Table III-1 presents the apron area for each Airbus aircraft type; and Table III-2 presents similar requirements for Boeing aircraft.
The gate area depth for NLA is based on the aircraft length plus the tug vehicle length, assumed to be 50 feet. This area defines the length between the terminal façade and the tug road behind the aircraft parking position. This length ranges from 236 feet for the B787-3 to the B747-8 with 300 feet required.
The taxilane to taxilane separation standards for Group V and VI aircraft are 249 feet and 298 feet, respectively. It should be noted that more detailed calculations for taxilane separation distances are provided by the FAA for less than standard separations, but these require a modification to standards determination. Taxilanes are typically designated as “non- movement areas”. Non-movement areas are not under the direction of ground controllers who are located in the Air Traffic Control Tower.
Terminal Requirements A generic analysis of terminal facility requirements for NLA was conducted. This analysis considered jet bridge, passenger holdroom, ticketing and baggage claim space needs. The A380 needs a minimum of two jet bridges to its lower deck to achieve 90-minute turnaround times. If the second loading bridge can access the upper deck door or if a third jet bridge to the upper deck is added, turnaround times are improved. The B747-8 also needs two jet bridges for 90-minute turnaround times. The B787-3 and-8 will typically not need a second loading bridge, but this determination is based on airline preference. The B787-9 and the A350s may need a second loading bridge, depending on specific airline turnaround time desires.
Passenger holdroom, ticketing and baggage claim space was analyzed based on comparative needs for existing large commercial aircraft. The A380 will need approximately 30 percent more space for passenger facilities than the same average area needed to service a B747-400. The B747-8 will need approximately 15 percent more space than the B747-400. The A350 and the B787-8 and -9 will have similar terminal space requirements as the B777, and the B787-3 has space requirements that are similar to the B757-300.
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Ground Handling Equipment Requirements A review of special equipment needs for NLA revealed that only the A380 required two equipment additions. This includes an A380 tow tractor and an upper deck catering vehicle. All of the other NLA will be able to use existing ground handling equipment.
Cargo Requirements Currently, the only NLA freighter being designed and that has firm orders is the B747-8/F. It will need apron space similar to that identified for the passenger version of this aircraft, 8,300 square yards, assuming a 25-foot wingtip clearance. This aircraft will not require any new cargo handling equipment.
ARFF Requirements The Aircraft Rescue and Fire Fighting (ARFF) equipment needs for NLA were also reviewed. This analysis determined that NLA are either categorized as an ARFF Index D or E, depending on whether an average of five daily departures by the NLA are made or not. The only special ARFF equipment being considered is for the A380 and involves an interior intervention vehicle and a 65-foot high reach extendable turret. Both of these pieces of ARFF equipment are being researched.
New composite materials (carbon reinforced plastics) will used in the construction of the majority of the B787s and portions of other NLA. Research is currently underway to determine if existing fire fighting agents will work adequately or whether new agents will need to be developed.
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Table III-1 Airbus NLA Facility Requirements Summary A380 A350-800 A350-900 A350-1000 Airfield Runway length (ft)1 9,000 9,000 9,500 10,600 Runway width (ft) 150-200 150 150 150 Runway shoulder width x2 50 35 35 35 (ft)2 Total RW + shoulder width 250-280 220 220 220 (ft) Runway to taxiway 550 400-500 400-500 400-500 separation (ft) Taxiway width (ft) 75 to 100 75 75 75 Taxiway to taxiway 324 267 267 267 separation (ft) Pavement strength 15% > 747-400 NA NA NA comparison (tire load) Apron Area (sy)4 9,209 6,494 7,040 7,664 Taxilane to taxilane 298 245 245 245 separation (ft) Gate depth (ft)5 289 249 270 294
Terminal Jet bridges 2 1-2 1-2 1-2 Passenger holdroom 30% > 747-400 catering vehicle ARFF Services ARFF Index E D E E Fire fighting agents R&D R&D R&D R&D Interior Intervention New NLA ARFF Vehicle Research None None None equipment 65-foot High Reach Extendable Turrets Cargo Requirements Apron area (sf) N/A N/A N/A N/A New NLA cargo N/A N/A N/A N/A equipment Notes: 1 Assumes balanced field 2 Requires stabilized/paved shoulders 3 FAA may reduce once B747-8 is certified 4 Assumes 50' nose depth and 12' wingtip clearances 5 Assumes terminal face to tug road Sources: Airbus, FAA, and Wilbur Smith Associates, Analysis, May 2008. FDOT Aviation Office III-6 Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task III: Facility Requirements Table III-2 Boeing NLA Facility Requirements Summary B747-8/F B787-3 B787-8 B787-9 Airfield Runway length (ft)1 10,500 6,000 9,000 10,000 Runway width (ft) 2003 150 150 150 Runway shoulder width 40 35 35 35 x2 (ft)2 Total RW + shoulder 280 220 220 220 width (ft) Runway to taxiway 550 400-500 400-500 400-500 separation (ft) Taxiway width (ft) 1003 75 75 75 Taxiway to taxiway 324 267 267 267 separation (ft) Pavement strength 13% > 747-400 NA NA 19% > 747-400 comparison (tire load) Apron Area (sy)4 8,319 5,126 5,832 6,624 Taxilane to taxilane 298 245 245 245 separation (ft) Gate depth (ft)5 300 236 236 256 Terminal Jet bridges 2 1 1 1-2 Passenger holdroom 15% > 747-400 B757-300 FDOT Aviation Office III-7 Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task III: Facility Requirements VLJ Facility Requirements This section helps to summarize and highlight facilities and services that are needed or desirable to support VLJ aircraft. To identify VLJ-related facility needs, these needs were broken down into two categories. One category of facilities and services relates to VLJs that will be flown by private operators or businesses, and the other category relates to VLJs that will be flown by on-demand operators using VLJs to provide air taxi service. In either category, it is assumed that these high end aircraft will be seeking a greater than average level of safety and security and that the passengers and pilots of these planes will be drawn to airports that have facilities and services to meet not only their basic needs but also their travel expectations. One selling point for the VLJ is its flexibility to operate at airports that cannot be used by commercial planes or larger more traditional businesses jets. That being said, given the cost of the aircraft and its associated insurance requirements, most VLJ operators will seek airports that provide facilities and services above the minimum needed to operate. Most will be looking to operate at airports that provide a published approach and hence will tend to gravitate to airports with this type of capability. VLJ Requirements Very light jets are not anticipated to be “facility demanding” aircraft. In fact, to a large degree, these planes should “fit” at most airports, particularly those that already have operations by turboprop or business jet aircraft. The particular facility needs for these planes vary based upon the use of the VLJ, either by a private owner (Part 91) or by an on-demand operator (Part 135). The needs of a private owner are less stringent; on-demand operators may “require” additional services and facilities, depending upon the nature of their operations. In order for communities to realize the full benefit of this emerging form of air travel, the state’s airports must be prepared to provide certain basic facilities and services to adequately accommodate VLJs. The following airport facility and service categories have been used to express the general requirements of VLJ aircraft and passengers: • Airfield • Airfield Support Facilities • Apron/Hangar • Terminal • Fuel Availability • Other Services Using available manufacturer aircraft specifications, Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) design standards, and Air Taxi Association airport standards, minimum airport facility requirements for VLJs operated by both private and on-demand providers have been identified for each of the facility categories. The facility requirements may or may not be the same for both private owners and on-demand operators. FDOT Aviation Office III-8 Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task III: Facility Requirements Airfield Requirements The manufacturer aircraft specifications for each specific VLJ provide a range of runway lengths that are needed to support aircraft take-offs and landings. According to manufacturer’s data, Solojet has the shortest reported runway length requirement of 1,837 feet, and the Javelin MK-10 has the longest reported runway length requirement of 4,000 feet. It should be noted that these runway lengths are the minimum needed to support either VLJ type. During adverse weather conditions and other operating circumstances, additional runway length could be needed. For this analysis, a range of runway lengths were identified for both private VLJ operators and operators who will use VLJ aircraft to provide on-demand service under Part 135 operating procedures. The range of runway lengths identified in this analysis were established using information from the specifications of manufacturers, guidelines from FAA AC 150/5300-13 on airport design and planning standards, and requirements for carriers operating under Part 135 providing on-demand service. Since the Eclipse 500 is the most common type of VLJ flying, at a minimum, airports planning to accommodate VLJ aircraft should have runways long enough to meet the runway length requirements for this plane. When the Eclipse 500 is being flown from private use, according to the manufacturer, its minimum runway length requirement is 2,342 feet. When the Eclipse 500 is being operated under Part 135 rules, its minimum runway length needed increases to 3,903 feet. Surveys conducted for this study indicate that most who plan to own and operate a VLJ, either privately or for on-demand service, would prefer to operate at an airport with some type of published approach. Using FAA AC 150/5300-13, the minimum runway length for an airport served by a non-precision approach is 3,200 feet, and the minimum runway length for an airport with a precision or near precision approach is 4,200 feet. These runway lengths are the targets identified in this study as those being most desirable to serve VLJ operations. As shown in Tables III-3 and III-4, if airports in Florida are planning to serve all VLJs that could be used by either private operators or on-demand carriers operating under Part 135, runway lengths from 4,000 feet to over 6,600 feet could be needed. As noted at the beginning of this section, some VLJ aircraft have operating characteristics that are more demanding than others. The minimum runway width for both types of users, private and on-demand, is 60 feet. This width is in accordance with FAA AC 150/5300-13, Airport Design. Taxiway requirements are different between the two types of users. Private owners can operate with taxiway turnarounds. On-demand user requirements are more stringent; on-demand operators prefer a parallel taxiway to eliminate back-taxiing. For on- demand operators, parallel taxiways also provide a more efficient operating environment. Runway and taxiway facilities for private owners and on-demand operators are shown in Table III-3 and Table III-4, respectively. FDOT Aviation Office III-9 Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task III: Facility Requirements Table III-3 Airport Facility/Service Requirements - Private Owner (Part 91) Minimum Requirement Airfield Minimum Selected All VLJ Models Runway length (feet) /1 2,342 x 60 3,200 x 60 4,000 x 60 Taxiway Turnarounds Instrument approach GPS/WAAS or IAP with 1 mile visibility procedures /1 NAVAIDs Medium Intensity Runway & Taxiway Lighting; PAPI/VASI Weather AWOS-III or ASOS Jet A 24/7 and Full Service Apron/Hangar* Based Users Transient Users Spatial recommendations: 60' wide x 60' deep x 18' clear 167 sq ft/per aircraft Hangars door Spatial recommendations: 21' wing clearance / 35 ' tail 21' wing clearance / 35' tail clearance Apron clearance Hangar space 1 per based aircraft 100' wide x 100' deep x 18' clear door Apron space 430 sq yds/per aircraft 500 sq yds/per aircraft Terminal Terminal with lobby, restrooms, and flight planning Other services** FBO with fueling capabilities, minimal maintenance, oxygen Rental Car Courtesy Car/Loaned Car Note: /1 - FAA AC 150/5300-13 Change 10 requires the following: A minimum runway length of 3,200' for a non-precision approach with 1 mile visibility and 4,200' for a non-precision approach with vertical guidance with 3/4 mile visibility. *Apron and hangar requirements are based on fleet mix and not a specific aircraft. **Services provided will be determined by level of demand and will vary at each airport. Source: VLJ manufacturer aircraft specifications, FAA AC 150/5300-13, and Wilbur Smith Associates. FDOT Aviation Office III-10 Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task III: Facility Requirements Table III-4 Airport Facility Requirements – On-Demand Operator (Part 135) Minimum Requirement On-Demand Operator (Part 135) Airfield Minimum Selected All VLJ Models Runway length (feet) /1 3,903 x 60 4,200 x 60 6,666 x 60 Taxiway standards Parallel Taxiway Instrument approach GPS/WAAS or IAP with 3/4 mile visibility procedures /1 NAVAIDs Medium Intensity Runway & Taxiway; Approach Lighting; PAPI/VASI Weather AWOS-III or ASOS Jet A Full Service Apron/Hangar* Based Users Transient Users Spatial 100' wide x 100' deep x 18' clear recommendations: 100' wide x 100' deep x 18' clear door door Hangars Spatial 21' wing clearance / 35' tail 21' wing clearance / 35' tail clearance recommendations: Apron clearance Hangar space 1 per based aircraft 167 sq ft/per aircraft Apron space 430 sq yds/per aircraft 500 sq yds/per aircraft Terminal with lobby, flight planning room, restrooms, conference room, and Terminal vending machines Other services** FBO with fueling capabilities, minimal maintenance, oxygen Rental Car Taxi/On-Demand Service Note: /1 - FAA AC 150/5300-13 Change 10 requires the following: A minimum runway length of 3,200' for a non-precision approach with 1 mile visibility and 4,200' for a non-precision approach with vertical guidance with 3/4 mile visibility. *Apron and hangar requirements are based on fleet mix and not a specific aircraft. **Services provided will be determined by level of demand and will vary at each airport. Sources: VLJ manufacturer aircraft specifications, FAA AC 150/5300-13, Air Taxi Association, and Wilbur Smith Associates. Airfield Support Facility Requirements Airfield support facilities include, but are not limited to, instrument approach procedures, navigational aids (NAVAIDs), and weather reporting capabilities. Instrument approaches, NAVAIDs, and on-site weather reporting capabilities provide point-to-point guidance information or position data to aircraft in flight. Private users do not always need to have these support facilities to operate at an airport; however, they are highly desired facilities by both types of operators. Certain airfield support facilities are generally considered to be necessary to support VLJ operations flown by on-demand operators. Therefore, it is generally recommended that airports serving a notable number of VLJ operations have: • A global positioning system (GPS/WAAS) approach • Runway lighting FDOT Aviation Office III-11 Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task III: Facility Requirements • Precision approach path indicators (PAPIs) or visual approach slope indicator (VASIs) • On-site weather reporting such as an automated weather observation system (AWOS) At a minimum, these should be provided as a means for VLJ aircraft to operate during inclement weather. On-demand operators require approach lighting systems in addition to the support facilities that private operators desire (see Table III-4). Apron/Hangar Requirements Hangars are used to store aircraft, provide protection from adverse weather conditions, and increase security. Hangars are also used for temporary storage while an aircraft is undergoing maintenance and/or repairs. The spatial requirements for parking VLJ aircraft in a hangar vary for private users and on-demand operators (see Table III-3 and Table III-4). Private owners who are basing their VLJ at a particular airport will typically prefer to house their aircraft in their own hangar, while transient aircraft, flown either by private users or on- demand operators, can typically use a “community” hangar. Box hangars that are 60 feet by 60 feet can adequately house any VLJ aircraft. It is assumed that private transient VLJ aircraft and on-demand operators could house multiple aircraft in a community hangar that is 100 feet by 100 feet. All hangars for storing VLJs need to have a clear door height of 18 feet to accommodate all aircraft in the VLJ fleet. The spatial requirement for parking spaces on an airport’s apron or ramp area is the same for both types of VLJ users: 21-foot wing clearance and 35-foot tail clearance. Terminal Requirements General aviation terminals and office space are often desirable to meet the needs of pilots, passengers, and visitors. As shown in Tables III-3 and III-4, the basic facilities of a general aviation terminal to meet the needs of VLJ operators should normally include a lobby, a flight planning room, and restrooms. On-demand operators may benefit from additional areas/services such as a conference room and vending machines. There are other terminal amenities that may be sought, especially by on-demand operators and their customers, but the focus of the discussion on terminal related facilities was on basic needs as well as on facilities that could be developed with FDOT funds. Fuel Requirements Fueling services are an important revenue source for any airport. Traditional business jets and all VLJ operators require Jet A fuel. Private owners typically desire to have full service Jet A fuel available for access 24/7. On-demand users often require full service Jet A availability at airports where they operate. Other Services Other services that private users and on-demand VLJ operators may desire vary. As shown in Tables III-3 and III-4. Additional services include a full service FBO with fueling capabilities and minimal maintenance. Some private and on-demand operators flying VLJs FDOT Aviation Office III-12 Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task III: Facility Requirements may also need access to oxygen. Ground access from airports serving VLJ operations could include rental cars, a courtesy car, and/or taxi service. Facility Requirements Summary While information presented in this section is not intended to replace more detailed aircraft specific planning that would be accomplished as part of a master plan or airport layout plan update, the facility and service needs for NLA and VLJs presented in this section should be used as a general planning reference. By understanding the general requirements for both types of Next Generation Aircraft, Florida airports will be better positioned to plan for the future. In addition, FDOT can use this information to better understand the specific facilities and services that may be needed support NLA and VLJs at Florida airports. With this understanding, FDOT will be able to direct funding to projects needed to ensure that Florida airports are ready, as appropriate, to serve both types of Next Generation Aircraft. Given the newness of both types of Next Generation aircraft, facility and service needs outlined in this section will most likely change. With baseline information summarized in this section, FDOT and airports in the Florida airport system can continue to monitor the changing facility and service needs for both NLA and VLJs as they evolve in the coming years. FDOT Aviation Office III-13 Task IV Florida Airport Readiness Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task IV: Readiness Assessment Introduction The Next Generation Aircraft will be incorporated into the aircraft fleet mix serving Florida over the next few years. The first international service to the United States using the Airbus A380 is scheduled to begin in August 2008 when Emirates initiates three weekly flights between Dubai and New York City. NLA flights will expand to Florida soon thereafter when Air France, British Airways, Lufthansa, and Virgin Atlantic bring their NLA fleet into service with regular flights between Europe and Miami International Airport. The Orlando International Airport is expected to see their first NLA operations with the introduction of charter service to the airport with the Boeing 787, and Virgin Atlantic has announced plans for A380 service to Orlando from London’s Gatwick Airport. Service to Orlando International on NLA is expected sometime after 2013. The Airbus A380 and the Boeing B747-8/8F are the first commercial transports to be in Aircraft Design Group VI with wingspans wider than any other aircraft in the commercial service fleet. This is a primary factor driving infrastructure changes at airports, and a major issue that receiver airports of those aircraft must consider in long-range planning. On the opposite end of the spectrum, VLJs are already offering new connectivity between numerous city pairs in the state. DayJet has been providing on-demand air service connecting most major metropolitan areas in Florida using a system of DayPorts and DayStops. These facilities are situated at capacity rich general aviation and small and medium hub commercial service airports rather than the more crowded large and medium hub airports. Other air taxi providers are also planning to grow their service in the state with a diverse fleet of VLJs. Florida has the distinct advantage of a robust system of airports perfectly poised to offer new air transportation possibilities to the traveling public. In this section, an approach is used to assess and quantify, as possible, facilities and capabilities of airports in Florida and then use this information to make a general determination on the readiness of those airports to effectively serve the needs of the Next Generation Aircraft. The focus of this effort is to help Florida DOT and its airports understand how to best prepare so that the benefits of these aircraft are fully realized. It is also imperative to ensure that state aviation funding is used to maximize access to and guarantee the success of the Florida Aviation System. FDOT Aviation Office IV-1 Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task IV: Readiness Assessment New Large Aircraft The physical and operational characteristics of the A380 present the most demanding requirements to airport operators among the NLA studied. It is expected that some airport owners will need to invest in facility improvements to accommodate A380 operations. However, the number of airports that need facility upgrades to accommodate this aircraft in Florida is expected to be limited. Other NLA will have fewer facility impacts because they are more similar to the existing commercial aircraft fleet. NLA other than the A380 are anticipated to operate at more airports in Florida. The following topics are discussed in this chapter: • A380 Receiver Airports • A380 Diversion Airports • Other NLA Preparations • Assessment of Other NLA Activity • Cost Estimates Related to NLA Operations A380 Receiver Airports Two of the commercial airports in Florida, Orlando International and Miami International, have carriers that have announced they will fly the A380. An overview of the preparations at both Miami International and Orlando International airports for the A380 was conducted. This review included a list of approved FAA modification to standards related to the A380 that have been approved for each airport. It should be noted that this overview is based on information provided by the airports, available reports, and staff interviews. Miami International Airport (MIA) According to Miami-Dade Aviation Department, four scheduled carriers are planning to serve Miami International with NLA to four destination cities starting late 2009 or early 2010. These are listed below in Table IV-1. Table IV-1 NLA Service to Miami Air Carrier NLA Type Flights per Week Destination Air France A380 2 to 3 Paris British Airways B787 2 to 5 London Lufthansa A380 2 to 3 Frankfurt/Munich Lufthansa B747-8 2 to 5 Frankfurt/Munich Virgin Atlantic A380 TBD London Notes: TBD=To Be Determined Source: GOAA, Airport Manager Survey, May 2008. No charter airlines have announced plans to serve Miami International with NLA at this time. Miami International has the necessary runway length for fully loaded NLA take-offs and landings with 13,000 feet of runway length available. Miami International has not, not at this time, constructed specific modifications to the airfield or the terminal to accommodate the FDOT Aviation Office IV-2 Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task IV: Readiness Assessment A380. Miami International has submitted requests to FAA for modification to standards to address several airfield configuration issues. There are areas on the airport that do not meet Group VI standards; the design group for the A380 is Group VI. The airport’s requests for runway, shoulder and blast pad widths modification requests were disapproved. As result, Miami International will need to undertake projects summarized below: Runway 9-27 (150 feet wide) • Strengthen 25 feet of the existing shoulder on each runway side • Add 40 feet of stabilized shoulders to each runway side • Widen blast pads from 250 feet to 280 feet Runway 8R-26L (200 feet wide) • Add 5 feet of stabilized shoulder to each runway side • Widen blast pads from 270 feet to 280 feet The six taxiway width requests for modifications to standards have been granted interim conditional approval by the FAA. Miami International will need to upgrade taxiways in accordance with Airports Engineering Brief #63. Five taxiway fillets have been given conditional approval for modification to standards as well. The request for five runway-to- taxiway separation modification to standards also has been granted conditional approval. The request for eight taxiway-to-taxiway separation modifications has also been given conditional approval. Finally, two of the three requests by the airport for taxiway to service road separation modifications have been conditionally approved. However, the Taxiway P modification to standards was disapproved. The affected service road will need to be closed during A380 taxiing operations. At the terminal complex, one gate is currently being considered for modification to accommodate the arrival of the A380; this gate is located at Gate J-17 at the end of Terminal J. Miami International management officials estimate it will cost $2 million and take 18 months to complete the planned improvements, and they expect the terminal to be ready for A380 operations by late 2009. The planned terminal modification will include a third level, providing a jet bridge to the upper deck of the A380 and will allow for first class/business class passengers terminal amenities. The airport previously considered additional gate modifications at three other terminals, but those plans are on hold until the need becomes more imminent. Regarding cargo operations, Lufthansa plans to use the B747-8F at Miami International two to three times a week to Frankfurt and Munich in late 2010. There are no operational or physical constrains that need to be addressed to accommodate this aircraft other than altering the cargo apron lead-in lines to accommodate the longer fuselage of the B747-8F. Orlando International Airport (MCO) The Greater Orlando Aviation Authority provided input regarding the future operation of NLA at Orlando International. Virgin Atlantic is the only scheduled carrier to announce A380 service to Orlando, this carrier plans to serve London’s Gatwick Airport starting sometime after 2013. No cargo airlines have announced their intention to serve Orlando FDOT Aviation Office IV-3 Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task IV: Readiness Assessment International with NLA, at this time. The Greater Orlando Airport Authority works continuously with scheduled domestic and international airlines and charter carriers to attract new service, some that could be provided on NLA. Orlando International has 12,000 feet of runway length which will accommodate fully loaded NLA operating at the airport. Orlando’s west airfield (Runway 18-36) is designed for Group VI aircraft. This runway only requires minor taxiway fillet modifications before regular NLA service begins. Two taxiways were rehabilitated in 2007 to accommodate the A380 and another taxiway and associated bridge will be modified by 2012 to accommodate NLA. Terminal 4 gates are planned to be modified to accommodate the A380 prior to its arrival. In addition, Airside 4 will be modified to serve additional NLA activity. A380 Diversion Airports Tampa International Airport has been designated as a diversion (backup) airport for A380 operations. Therefore, this airport will only have occasional use by the A380 and thus does not have to meet the same standards as an airport with regular service by the A380. Tampa’s main runway is 11,002 feet and more than sufficient for the A380 and other NLAs to land and take-off at MTOW. The airfield does not meet Group VI standards, but the airport has modification to standards approved by the FAA. Tampa International developed an operational plan to accommodate NLA while operating at the airport. These modifications involve closing certain taxiways and/or limiting the type of aircraft using those taxiways near where the A380 will be taxiing. The airfield improvements Tampa International intends to make to accommodate any diversionary A380 operations include taxiway fillets which are planned to be completed by 2015. At the terminal, Airside C was built with one A380 capable gate. Airside F has two gates capable of handling the A380. In the future, when the North Terminal is constructed (2015), two more NLA gates will be included. Other NLA Airports As airlines begin to add New Large Aircraft (NLA) to their fleets, they will increasingly be deployed on high-volume routes around the world. Large international gateway destinations will likely be the first to accommodate such aircraft, as larger aircraft allow additional long- haul capacity without adding to an airport’s operational count. As they proliferate, it is reasonable to expect that NLA will be used to serve other international destinations and even to high-volume domestic routes. As vacation and business destinations with world-wide importance, some Florida airports may be among cities to which NLA are deployed. This section identifies the airports and routes that may be candidates for NLA activity at some point. Currently, Orlando and Miami International airports are the only two announced receiver airports for the A380 in Florida, and Tampa International Airport is the only announced diversion airport. As more airlines take delivery of NLA over the next ten years, it is possible that additional commercial airports in Florida will have NLA operations. FDOT Aviation Office IV-4 Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task IV: Readiness Assessment In the near-term, beyond the three commercial airports mentioned above, the next commercial airport with the highest potential to see NLA operations is Orlando Sanford International Airport. First Choice Airways is based in the United Kingdom. This carrier is a subsidiary of German-based TUI. TUI consists of eight different airlines, one of which is First Choice Airways. First Choice Airways currently flies to Orlando Sanford International Airport on a weekly basis. This carrier has a marketing agreement with Disney. First Choice Airways currently has a fleet that consists of six B767-300ERs. The carrier has on order 11 B787s. When these planes are delivered in the 2010-2012 timeframe, it is likely that Orlando Sanford International will have NLA service. As part of its master planning process, the airport has already identified steps and projects that will be needed to accommodate NLA. At this time, none of these projects have been implemented, but the airport is working toward making its facilities compatible with NLA operations. During surveys conducted for this study, Orlando Sanford International Airport indicated that future service by the A380 may occur, probably by a charter airline. The only airfield improvement project related to accommodating NLA is a new parallel taxiway on the east end of Runway 9L-27R. This taxiway has the prescribed 600-foot runway to taxiway separation required for Group VI aircraft. The remaining parallel taxiway has a separation distance of 400 feet. No terminal modifications are being considered until commitments are obtained from carriers who will fly the A380 to Orlando Sanford. Among the other remaining commercial airports in Florida, after Orlando Sanford International Airport, the next airport with the most potential to attract NLA service is probably Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport. While all other NLA service discussed for Florida to this point would be to international destinations, if Fort Lauderdale- Hollywood International attracts NLA service, it would most likely be to long-haul domestic locations. Only three U.S. domestic carriers currently have NLA on order. As noted, these carriers are Northwest Airlines, Continental Airlines, and USAirways. At this time, all three of these domestic airlines plan to deploy the NLA they have on order to serve international destinations from their hubs in the U.S. As additional NLA are produced, it is possible that more domestic carriers will purchase these planes to replace existing, aging large commercial aircraft in their operating fleets. At some point either within or beyond the next ten years, high passenger volume, longer haul domestic cities pairs may have service on NLA. Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International has high passenger demand to Atlanta, Los Angeles and Las Vegas. Assuming that U.S. domestic carriers are able to battle through current financial problems and begin purchasing NLA for service, other than on international routes, Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International is a probable location for NLA flights at some point. NLA service at Fort Lauderdale- Hollywood would not be on A380 aircraft, but would more likely be on NLA such as the A350 or the B787. Beyond these two other commercial airports, identifying additional commercial airports in Florida for NLA service is somewhat speculative. Following Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International, Tampa and Jacksonville International airports most likely have the next highest FDOT Aviation Office IV-5 Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task IV: Readiness Assessment potential to attract domestic service on NLA. Of course, Orlando International and Miami International are also likely candidates for domestic NLA flights. NLA Aircraft Models, Specifications, and Competition It is important to note that the following assessment is not intended as a forecast of possible aircraft deployment, nor should it be construed as an indication that an airport will definitely accommodate NLA activity. Individual carriers make the determination as to which aircraft are financially feasible on any particular route, and any change in an airline’s financial performance may impact the following discussion. In addition to the A380, the category of NLA includes the Boeing 787 Dreamliner, the Boeing 747-8, and the Airbus A350. Each of these aircraft are currently being sold in a number of variants that blend range and passenger load to meet the requirements of various carriers. In turn, each of these variants will compete to replace various aircraft in current airline fleets. Tables IV-2, IV-3 and IV-4 below display the NLA variants (other than the A380), their range, passenger loads, competing current aircraft, and improvements NLA provide over current large and wide-body commercial aircraft. Table IV-2 Boeing 787 Passenger Loads, Range, and Competing Aircraft Existing Aircraft Type Typical Typical Range Pass. Range Aircraft Pass. Range Passenger (nm) Variant Config. (nm) Config. Improvement Improvement B787-3 290 2,775 B757-3001 243 3,467 -692 47 A3001 266 3,600 -825 24 A3101 240 3,670 -895 50 B787-8 210 7,925 B767-200ER 181 6,590 1,335 29 B767-300ER 218 5,975 1,950 -8 B787-9 250 8,250 A330-300 295 5670 2,580 -45 A340-200 261 8000 250 -11 B767-400 245 5625 2,625 5 Notes: 1) Two-class configuration. Source: Airbus, Boeing. All passenger configurations are three-class unless otherwise noted. Note 1: Two-class configuration. Table IV-3 Boeing 747-8 Passenger Loads, Range, and Competing Aircraft Replaces Aircraft In Service Typical Typical Range Range Range Passenger Variant Pass. Aircraft Pass. (nm) (nm) Improvement Improvement Config. Config. B747-8 467 8000 B747-400 416 7260 740 51 A300-600 380 7750 250 87 A380 525 8200 -200 -58 FDOT Aviation Office IV-6 Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task IV: Readiness Assessment Table IV-4 Airbus A350 Passenger Loads, Range, and Competing Aircraft Replaces Aircraft In Service Typical Range Typical Pass. Range Range Passenger Variant Pass. Aircraft (nm) Config. (nm) Improvement Improvement Config. A350-800 270 8300 B767-400 245 5625 2675 25 A330-300 295 5670 2630 -25 A350-900 314 8100 A330-300 295 5670 2430 19 A350-1000 350 8000 B777-200 305 7700 300 45 B747-300 366 6700 1300 -16 Source: Airbus, Boeing. All passenger configurations are three-class unless otherwise noted. With the exception of the Boeing 787-3, each of the NLA shown above are designed, for the most part, to be employed on long-haul, high-density international routes. In the case of the Boeing 787-3, the aircraft’s operating characteristics make it more suited for high-density shorter-haul routes, often domestic in nature. Current Florida Air Carriers with NLA Orders Table IV-5 shows the major U.S.-based air carriers that serve at least one of Florida’s airports and the number and type of NLA orders each has placed as of the late spring of 2008. Table IV-5 Current US Carrier NLA Orders Airline Aircraft Orders AirTran Airways - 0 Alaska Airlines - 0 Allegiant Air - 0 American Airlines - 0 Continental Airlines Boeing 787 25 -Delta Air Lines- - 0 Jet Blue Airlines - 0 Midwest Airline - 0 Northwest Airlines Boeing 787 18 Southwest Airlines - 0 Spirit Air Lines - 0 Sun Country Airlines - 0 United Airlines - 0 US Airways Airbus A350 22 USA 3000 Airlines - 0 Source: Airbus, Boeing. Table IV-6 shows international carriers with service to Florida airports and current NLA orders for each. FDOT Aviation Office IV-7 Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task IV: Readiness Assessment Table IV-6 Current International Carrier NLA Orders Airline Aircraft Orders Airline Aircraft Orders Aerolineas Argentinas Iberia Air Lines Of Spain Aeromexico Boeing 787 2 Icelandair Boeing 787 4 Aeropostal Alas De Venezuel Lacsa Aerovias Nac'l De Colombia Lan Dominica Air Canada Boeing 787 37 Lan Ecuador Air Jamaica Limited Lan Peru Airlines Air Transat Lan-Chile Airlines Boeing 787 10 Alitalia-Linee Aeree Italia Lloyd Aereo Boliviano S. A. Bahamasair Holding Limited Lufthansa German Airlines Boeing 747-8 20 British Airways Plc Boeing 787 24 Luftransport-Unternehmen British West Indian Airways Martinair Holland N.V. Cayman Airways Limited Swiss International Airlines Compagnie Nat'l Air France Taca Int'l Airlines Compania Mexicana De Aviaci Taca Peru Transportes Aeros Compania Panamena (Copa) Meridiona Condor Flugdienst TravelspanGT, Inc. S.A. El Al Israel Airlines Ltd. Virgin Atlantic Airways Boeing 787 15 Globespan d/b/a Flyglobespan Westjet Source: Compiled by Wilbur Smith Associates, Airbus, Boeing. In addition, many carriers lease aircraft from a variety of aviation finance firms around the world. The largest of these companies are ALAFCO, CIT, and ILFC, which have together ordered 39 Airbus A350s and 106 Boeing 787s, to date. While it is not possible to predict if any of these aircraft will be leased to carriers serving Florida, it should be understood that, as approximately one out of every eight current orders for each aircraft have been placed by these leasing companies, these leased aircraft may enter Florida service in the future. Current International Destinations Served from Florida Table IV-7 shows the level of international service available from Florida’s airports in the summer of 2007. Over half of these flights were to destinations in the Caribbean, and another 40 percent were to Central and South American destinations. The most distant destination served among these regions is Buenos Aires in Argentina, followed by Montevideo, Concepcion, Santiago, and Sao Paolo. Of particular interest to this study is the level of service available to Europe. Markets in Europe have significant potential to affect the aircraft fleet serving Florida, as the combination of long-haul flights and high travel demand support the possible use of NLA. Among the European cities served from Florida’s airports, the most distant destination was Tel Aviv, followed by Munich, Milan, Zurich, and Frankfurt. It is expected that with their increased range, NLA will provide Florida with new opportunities for non-stop service, especially to locations in the Middle East and Asia. FDOT Aviation Office IV-8 Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task IV: Readiness Assessment Table IV-7 International Destinations Served From Florida’s Airports, Summer 2007 FLORIDA ORIGIN AIRPORT FLORIDA ORIGIN World Area Weekly World Area Weekly Destination Airport Code Departures Destination Airport Code Departures FT. LAUDERDALE/HLYWD INTL TOTAL 531 ORLANDO INTL TOTAL 146 Caribbean/Atlantic 466 Caribbean/Atlantic 55 Nassau, Bahamas, NAS 121 Nassau, Bahamas NAS 37 Freeport, Bahamas FPO 62 Freeport, Bahamas FPO 8 Marsh Harbor, Bahamas MHH 60 Montego Bay, Jamaica MBJ 7 Kingston, Jamaica KIN 38 Grand Cayman, West Indies GCM 2 Santo Domingo, Dom. Rep. SDQ 30 Bermuda BDA 1 Port-Au-Prince, Haiti PAP 28 Mexico/Central America 24 Treasure Cay, Bahamas TCB 24 Mexico City, Mexico MEX 11 Montego Bay, Jamaica MBJ 17 Panama City, Panama PTY 10 Georgetown, Bahamas GGT 16 San Jose, Costa Rica SJO 3 Bimini, Bahamas BIM 15 Europe 38 North Eleuthera, Bahamas ELH 14 London (Gatwick), UK LGW 21 Governors Harbor, Bahamas GHB 8 Manchester, UK MAN 9 Grand Cayman, West Indies GCM 7 Amsterdam AMS 4 Punta Cana, Dom. Rep. PUJ 7 Frankfurt, Germany FRA 3 Andros Town, Bahamas ASD 4 Glasgow, Scotland GLA 1 Chub Cay, Bahamas CCZ 4 Canada 29 St. Maarten SXM 3 Toronto, Canada YYZ 21 The Bight, Bahamas TBI 3 Montreal, Canada YUL 8 Port of Spain, Trinidad POS 2 Grand Turk, Turks & Caicos GDT 1 TAMPA INTL TOTAL 19 Providenciales, Turks & Caicos PLS 1 Caribbean/Atlantic 6 San Salvador, Bahamas ZSA 1 Grand Cayman Island GCM 6 South America 14 Europe 5 Bogota, Colombia BOG 7 London-Gatwick LGW 5 Lima, Peru LIM 7 Canada 8 Mexico/Central America 36 Toronto YYZ 8 Cancun, Mexico CUN 14 San Jose, Costa Rica SJO 14 MELBOURNE INTL TOTAL 14 Guatemala City, Guatemala GUA 7 Caribbean/Atlantic 14 Mexico City, Mexico MEX 1 Marsh Harbour, Bahamas MHH 14 Canada 15 Toronto YYZ 8 DAYTONA BEACH INTL TOTAL 36 Montreal-Mirabel YMX 7 Caribbean/Atlantic 36 Marsh Harbor, Bahamas MHH 22 PALM BEACH INTL TOTAL 86 Treasure Cay, Bahamas TCB 14 Caribbean/Atlantic 86 Nassau, Bahamas NAS 34 ORLANDO SANFORD INTL TOTAL 23 Marsh Harbour, Bahamas MHH 34 Europe 23 Treasure Cay, Bahamas TCB 9 Glasgow, Scotland GLA 10 Freeport, Bahamas FPO 9 Belfast, Ireland BFS 3 London - Gatwick, England LGW 3 SOUTHWEST FLORIDA INTL TOTAL 7 Manchester, England MAN 3 Europe 5 Reykjavik, Iceland KEF 2 Dusseldorf, Germany DUS 3 Bristol, England BRS 1 Munich, Germany FRA 2 East Midlands, England EMA 1 Canada 2 Toronto YYZ 2 FDOT Aviation Office IV-9 Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task IV: Readiness Assessment Table IV-7 (continued) International Destinations Served From Florida’s Airports, Summer 2007 FLORIDA ORIGIN World Area Weekly World Area Weekly Destination Airport Code Departures Destination Airport Code Departures MIAMI INTL TOTAL 1210 Caribbean/Atlantic 470 South America 297 Nassau, Bahamas, NAS 111 Caracas, Venezuela CCS 44 Freeport, Bahamas FPO 37 Bogota, Colombia BOG 33 Grand Cayman, West Indies GCM 35 Sao Paolo, Brazil GRU 29 Montego Bay, Jamaica MBJ 34 Buenos Aires, Argentina EZE 25 Santo Domingo, Dom. Rep. SDQ 28 Lima, Peru LIM 24 Port-Au-Prince, Haiti PAP 24 Santiago, Chile SCL 18 Kingston, Jamaica KIN 21 Medellin, Colombia MDE 17 Port of Spain, Trinidad POS 21 Cali, Colombia CLO 14 Punta Cana, Dom. Rep. PUJ 17 Belize City, Belize BZE 12 Aruba AUA 14 La Paz, Bolivia LPB 12 Barbados BGI 14 Rio de Janeiro, Brazil GIG 12 Curacao, Neth. Antilles CUR 14 Barranquilla, Columbia BAQ 11 Marsh Harbor, Bahamas MHH 14 Guayaquil, Ecuador GYE 7 Providenciales, Turks & Caicos PLS 14 Manaus, Brazil MAO 7 Santiago, Dom. Rep. STI 14 Maracaibo, Venezuela MAR 7 Puerto Plata, Dom. Rep. POP 10 Valencia, Venezuela VLN 7 Georgetown, Bahamas GGT 7 Santa Cruz, Bolivia VVI 6 North Eleuthera, Bahamas ELH 7 Cartegena, Colombia CTG 5 St. Lucia UVF 7 Barcelona, Venezuela BLA 3 St. Maarten SXM 7 Montevideo, Uruguay MVD 3 Treasure Cay, Bahamas TCB 7 Salvador, Brazil SSA 1 Bermuda BDA 5 St. Kitts SKB 5 Europe 94 Casa de Campo, Dom. Rep. LRM 3 London - Heathrow, England LHR 29 Madrid, Spain MAD 17 Mexico/Central America 307 Paris, France CDG 14 Mexico City, Mexico MEX 64 Frankfurt, Germany FRA 7 Cancun, Mexico CUN 42 Milan, Italy MXP 7 Panama City, Panama PTY 35 Zurich, Switzerland ZRH 7 San Jose, Costa Rica SJO 30 Amsterdam, Netherlands AMS 5 Managua, Nicaragua MGA 28 Dusseldorf, Germany DUS 3 Guatemala City, Guatemala GUA 21 Tel Aviv, Israel TLV 3 Quito, Ecuador UIO 21 Munich, Germany MUC 2 San Pedro Sula, Honduras SAP 21 San Salvador, El Salvador SAL 14 Canada 42 Tegucigalpa, Honduras TGU 14 Toronto, Canada YYZ 28 Cozumel, Mexico CZM 8 Montreal (Dorval), Canada YUL 14 Liberia, Costa Rica LIR 5 Merida, Mexico MID 3 FLORIDA TOTAL 2,072 Roatan, Honduras RTB 1 Caribbean/Atlantic 1,133 Central America/Mexico 367 South America 311 Europe 165 Canada 96 Source: Official Airline Guide. FDOT Aviation Office IV-10 Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task IV: Readiness Assessment Current Long-Haul Domestic Destinations Served from Florida During 2007, the top long-haul domestic destinations served by airlines at Florida’s airports were Los Angeles, Las Vegas, San Francisco, Salt Lake City, and Seattle. In addition, a small amount of service was available to Long Beach, California. Each of these destinations is in excess of 2,000 nautical miles from a Florida airport, and thus these cities could be candidates for service by the 787-3, if a carrier should determine the economics of this aircraft were viable on a specific route. Table IV-8 shows the current long-haul destinations served from Florida’s airports, the 2007 seats, passenger, load statistics, and the types of aircraft employed on the routes during the year. Passenger volumes between Atlanta and several Florida markets may also support B787-3 service. Table IV-8 Florida Domestic Long-Haul Service Patterns, 2007 Load Orig Dest Operating Carrier Passengers Seats Factor Aircraft Types Fort Lauderdale 440,856 532,291 82.8% Los Angeles 187,626 220,340 85.2% American Airlines 122,984 135,981 90.4% B757, B767 Delta Air Lines 40,619 55,505 73.2% B737, B757 Spirit Air Lines 24,023 28,854 83.3% A319, A321 Las Vegas 159,755 199,371 80.1% America West 13,043 14,388 90.7% A319, A320, B757 Delta Air Lines 47,790 63,162 75.7% B757 Spirit Air Lines 40,152 48,582 82.6% A319, A321 US Airways 58,770 73,239 80.2% A320, A321, B757 Salt Lake City 50,228 56,714 88.6% Delta Air Lines 50,228 56,714 88.6% B737, B757 Long Beach 43,247 55,866 77.4% Jet Blue 43,247 55,866 77.4% A320 Jacksonville 22,574 33,597 67.2% Los Angeles 22,574 33,597 67.2% B737 Delta Air Lines 22,574 33,597 67.2% Orlando 662,378 764,130 86.7% Los Angeles 257,629 299,379 86.1% American Airlines 63,811 68,244 93.5% B757 Delta Air Lines 103,073 126,673 81.4% B737, B757, B767 United Air Lines 90,745 104,462 86.9% A319, A320, B757 San Francisco 56,779 65,764 86.3% United Air Lines 56,779 65,764 86.3% B757, B767 Las Vegas 139,319 161,770 86.1% America West 48,501 55,624 87.2% A319, A320, B757 Delta Air Lines 45,051 54,530 82.6% B737, B757 Southwest Airlines 44,751 50,416 88.8% B737 US Airways 1,016 1,200 84.7% A320 Seattle 98,805 114,881 86.0% Alaska Airlines Inc. 98,805 114,881 86.0% B737 Salt Lake City 109,846 122,336 89.8% Delta Air Lines 109,846 122,336 89.8% B737, B757, B767 Miami 792,966 931,949 85.1% Los Angeles 424,260 494,360 85.8% American Airlines 424,260 494,360 85.8% B737, B757, B767, San Francisco 186,618 213,638 87.4% FDOT Aviation Office IV-11 Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task IV: Readiness Assessment Table IV-8 (continued) Florida Domestic Long-Haul Service Patterns, 2007 Load Orig Dest Operating Carrier Passengers Seats Factor Aircraft Types American Airlines 186,618 213,638 87.4% B757, B767, B777 Las Vegas 136,139 166,585 81.7% American Airlines 113,049 135,859 83.2% B757, B767 US Airways 23,090 30,726 75.1% A319, A320 Seattle 45,655 56,990 80.1% Alaska Airlines 45,655 56,990 80.1% B737 Tampa 244,608 300,512 81.4% Los Angeles 80,178 110,918 72.3% Delta Air Lines 80,178 110,918 72.3% B737, B757, B767 Las Vegas 118,396 136,878 86.5% America West 67,193 79,990 84.0% A319, A320 Delta Air Lines 103 150 68.7% B737 Southwest Airlines 45,380 49,722 91.3% B737 US Airways 5,720 7,016 81.5% A319, A320 Salt Lake City 46,034 52,716 87.3% Delta Air Lines Inc. 46,034 52,716 87.3% B737, B757 Grand Total 2,163,382 2,562,479 84.4% Source: U.S. Department of Transportation. Underlined aircraft types denote NLA competitors. Load Factor Considerations While it may be tempting to envision NLA activity on existing long-haul routes from Florida, carriers must maintain the proper level of seats to meet demand, while simultaneously not providing excess capacity that could be deployed elsewhere. Such a calculation is termed “load factor”. In 2007, the average U.S. domestic load factor for all carriers reached 79.8 percent, meaning that approximately 80 out of every 100 seats on U.S. flights were full. International load factors on flights departing the U.S. were 80.2 percent. For these reasons, it is assumed in this document that routes approaching a 90 percent load factor could be considered for “up-sizing” of aircraft, while routes with load factors lower than 80 percent could be swapped for smaller aircraft. Routes with load factors between 80 and 90 percent will likely be served by aircraft sized the same as those currently in use. High Probability International NLA Routes Given the considerations that must be given to flight frequency and load factors required for a financially successful aircraft routing, and with information on NLA orders by carriers, it is possible to identify the routes currently served from Florida’s airports that have a higher probability of having service by NLA. Table IV-9 shows these routes. In fact, for some of the routes shown in this table, carriers have already announced that they intend to provide service on the route using NLA. The information considered in Table IV-8 reflects only existing service; it does not consider service to new international destinations on additional carriers not currently serving Florida. This potential is discussed in Section V of this report. FDOT Aviation Office IV-12 Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task IV: Readiness Assessment Table IV-9 Existing International Routes Suitable for NLA Introduction Seat Distance 2007 Load Airline Origin Destination (nm) Aircraft Operations Passengers Seats Config Factor Virgin London A340- Miami 3,845 242 63,833 74,532 308 85.6% Atlantic Heathrow 600 B747- 123 39,519 47,400 385 83.4% 400 Sum 365 103,352 121,932 334 84.8% Virgin London B747- Orlando 3,783 699 242,131 315,342 451 76.8% Atlantic Gatwick 400 Virgin B747- Orlando Manchester 3,682 443 154,165 199,956 451 77.1% Atlantic 400 Source: US Department of Transportation. In 2007, Virgin Atlantic served Miami with flights to Heathrow. This same carrier served Orlando with flights to Gatwick and Manchester. These flights were on existing large aircraft and flew at load factors between 77 and 85 percent. Virgin Atlantic has ordered 15 Boeing 787-9 aircraft as of February 2008. Table IV-10 calculates the load factor, assuming Virgin Atlantic had deployed Boeing 787-9 aircraft on these routes in 2007. Table IV-10 Pro Forma International Routes with NLA Introduction Distance Seat 2007 Load Airline Origin Destination (nm) Aircraft Operations Config Seats Passengers Factor Virgin London Miami 3,845 B787-9 365 250 91,250 103,352 113.3% Atlantic Heathrow Virgin London Orlando 3,783 B787-9 699 250 174,750 242,131 138.6% Atlantic Gatwick Virgin Orlando Manchester 3,682 B787-9 443 250 110,750 154,165 139.2% Atlantic Source: US Department of Transportation, Boeing. Essentially, by deploying the 787-9 on all flights to its existing Florida destinations instead of Boeing 747s, as at present, Virgin Atlantic would need to expand its schedule by 14 to 40 percent, depending on the route. This could be accomplished by either adding frequencies or by augmenting peak-season flights with aircraft larger than the 787-9. Regardless, more than enough demand exists to implement the 787-9 on these routes at current frequencies. Other International NLA Routes Besides flights to the UK, several other international destinations are served at present from Florida’s airports that, with some passenger growth, could potentially support NLA service at some point in the future. In 2008, currency exchange rates favored increased foreign tourism to the U.S., particularly from Europe. As the U.S. has become a relatively inexpensive travel alternative for Europeans in 2008, higher tourism rates to U.S. destinations have resulted. Should this trend continue in coming years, travel to/from European destinations could increase both in terms of number of operations, passengers, and aircraft size. While many carriers have not committed to orders for NLA, it is possible that some carriers may add these aircraft to their operating fleets as their financial health allows. Much of the FDOT Aviation Office IV-13 Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task IV: Readiness Assessment future of NLA activity in Florida is somewhat reliant on American Airlines’ fleet plans. American is the dominant international carrier in Florida, offering 43 percent of all international seats departing from Florida in 2007. American’s closest international competitor, Virgin Atlantic, supplied just 4.6 percent of Florida’s international departing seats in 2007. Clearly, if Florida sees significant NLA activity on international routes, American could comprise much of it. If American Airlines’ financial health improves to a point where the carrier expands or upgrades its fleet, considerably more destinations may be served by NLA. This section identifies current routes that could generate sufficient demand levels to support fleet substitutions in the future. Miami-London Heathrow – British Airways and American Airlines serve Heathrow from Miami, as does Virgin Atlantic. Combined, these three airlines carried 407,649 passengers from Miami in 2007, and supplied 481,036 seats for a load factor of 84.7 percent. This service is provided on a mix of Boeing 747, 767, and 757 aircraft and Airbus A340 aircraft. British Airways is the leading carrier on this route, and it and many other foreign carriers that compete with BA are adding NLA to their fleets. It is, therefore, reasonable to expect that this level of demand and the existing operating fleet lend themselves to enhanced large- aircraft service. Orlando-London Gatwick – British Airways had daily Boeing 777 flights to Gatwick in 2007. The airline carried 78,029 passengers in 100,672 seats for a 78 percent load factor. If the London-Orlando market continues to grow, demand appears to exist to deploy BA’s coming fleet of NLAs on the Orlando-Gatwick route. Miami-Madrid – This route was operated by Iberia Airlines in 2007 on Airbus A340 aircraft; flights averaged nine per week. The airline carried 109,340 passengers in 123,236 seats for an average load factor of 88 percent. This route could be served by Boeing 787 aircraft at relatively the same frequency as 2007 or by A350 aircraft at fewer weekly frequencies; however, Iberia has made no announcement for NLA orders to date. Miami-Frankfurt – Lufthansa offered daily Boeing 747 service to its Frankfurt hub in 2007, carrying 114,554 passengers in 131,913 seats for an average load factor of nearly 87 percent. If Lufthansa deploys its coming 747-8 aircraft on this route, it would add additional capacity to the route at existing frequencies. Long-Term International NLA Opportunities With new Open Skies agreements and growing demand for international travel, considerable growth potential exists for expansion of Florida’s international service by carriers that may use NLA. NLA will open Florida markets to new geographical regions on non-stop flights, specifically Asia and the Middle East. At present, the average range of the current fleet serving Florida’s airports to international destinations (e.g. A340, B777 and B747, etc.) is approximately 6,300 nautical miles. Such a range prevents non-stop service from major hubs in the Middle East, FDOT Aviation Office IV-14 Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task IV: Readiness Assessment Asia, India, and China to locations in Florida. It is these same regions that have recently seen some of the fastest growth in air travel, as the standard of living improves around the world. It is no coincidence that many of the world’s fastest growing airlines are based in these areas, and many of these carriers have aggressive aircraft acquisition plans, including NLA. Table IV-11 shows the major carriers in these regions that have ordered NLA. It also shows the locations that are within non-stop range for an NLA departing Florida (approximately 8,000 nm from Miami). As shown, considerable capacity will be available on these airlines on NLA. While many of these aircraft will initially be deployed to larger North American international gateway airports such as those in Los Angeles, New York, Washington, Chicago, and San Francisco, it is possible that some of these aircraft could be deployed to markets in Florida. Table IV-11 Asian and Middle Eastern Airline NLA Orders 2005-2006 Passenger A350 B787 Airline Hub Location Growth Orders Orders Emirates Dubai, UAE 25.2% 70 Guangzhou, China Southern 12.4% 10 CH All Nippon Tokyo, JP 3.0% 50 Air China Beijing, CH 15.0% 15 Korean Seoul, SK 6.4% 10 China Eastern Shanghai, CH 38.0% 15 Qatar Doha, QT 34.4% 80 Aeroflot Moscow, RU 8.0% 22 22 Hainan Hainan, CH 17.3% 8 Jet Airways Mumbai, IN 28.5% 10 Air India* Mumbai, IN -2.4% 27 Sources: Airbus, Boeing, Airline Business. *Air India merged with Indian Air in 2007 and expects further NLA orders. For example, in addition to current U.S. offerings at JFK and Houston and upcoming service at LAX, Emirates has reportedly considered adding service to San Francisco, Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, Philadelphia, Seattle, and Washington Dulles. As an aggressively expanding airline, it would seem that Miami or Orlando could be added in the future. Similarly, China Southern expects to add Newark and Detroit to its U.S. offerings. All Nippon currently serves five U.S. gateway hubs, Korean Air serves ten, and Qatar Airways serves three. Air China expects to add Washington and San Francisco using its Boeing 787 aircraft. Hainan Airlines will initiate its U.S. service in 2008 with flights to Seattle, Chicago, and Newark. It is important to note that all new routes to the U.S. from foreign destinations are subject to government approval. Chances of new carriers adding Miami or Orlando as destinations are, therefore, at least a few years into the future. FDOT Aviation Office IV-15 Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task IV: Readiness Assessment High Probability Long-Haul Domestic Routes The Boeing 787-3 is a particularly good example of how NLA can serve not only long-haul international gateway airports, but may also help to alleviate congestion at high demand airports in the U.S. The 787-3 is designed to carry up to 290 passengers over distances of approximately 2,700 nautical miles. This aircraft has a larger passenger capacity than aircraft now serving Florida other than the Boeing 777; the Boeing 787 will allow for lower landing weights and greater fuel economy. For these reasons, it would be a suitable aircraft to serve high-demand (but relatively lower-yield) Florida markets. Among U.S. carriers, only Continental, Northwest, and US Airways have committed to orders for NLA as of this writing. None of these carriers has extensive long-haul domestic offerings from Florida’s airports. It is expected that most, if not all, of the NLA these domestic carriers have on order will be deployed on international routes from these carrier’s major hubs. However, as demand grows in the U.S. for air travel and as domestic carriers’ fleets age, it is expected that additional domestic carriers will acquire these aircraft. As noted above, several large leasing companies have ordered NLA, and these same leasing companies maintain nearly all U.S. carriers as clients. Obtaining NLA through lease would be a fairly easy way for U.S. carriers to expand long-range domestic capacity on high-density routes. This section highlights high density, long-haul routes from Florida’s airports that, should carriers choose to add them, could support NLA. It is important to note that aircraft other than the A380 would be more probable on domestic routes. This list should not be considered all inclusive; it instead represents some of the more obvious routes domestic routes suitable for NLA service. Miami-Los Angeles – By far the densest long-haul route served from Florida is Miami-Los Angeles, with over 424,000 passengers flying the route in 2007. American Airlines had a monopoly on this route in 2007, operating nearly seven daily departures on aircraft as large as Boeing 777s (once daily) and 757s (three daily). Load factors on these flights averaged 85 percent. A very high level of demand and current service by competitor aircraft would seem to point to success for NLA introduction on this route. Orlando-Los Angeles – The second-highest demand for long-haul service is the Orlando-Los Angeles market, with over 257,000 passengers traveling the route in 2007. The largest share of this market belongs to Delta, which transported just over 103,000 passengers on the route, on aircraft as large as Boeing 757s, at an 81 percent load factor. Though not as dense as the MIA-LAX route described above, it would not be unreasonable to expect NLA service on this route at least seasonally in coming years, should Delta deploy NLA aircraft to the route. Fort Lauderdale-Los Angeles – American Airlines controls nearly two-thirds of this market, which in 2007 consisted of nearly 188,000 passengers. American carried 123,000 of these passengers in 136,000 seats, for a load factor of over 90 percent in aircraft as large as Boeing 757s. While the size of B-757 employed (185 seats) would not necessarily indicate this route is a candidate for replacement by NLA, load factors in excess of 90 percent indicate some up-gauging of aircraft will be likely in coming years, at least during peak travel season. FDOT Aviation Office IV-16 Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task IV: Readiness Assessment High-Density Short-Haul Domestic Routes While the majority of NLA have been designed with long-haul service in mind, the 787-3 is designed not only for long-haul domestic routes but for very high-density shorter-haul routes as well. In particular, the performance and capacity of this aircraft make it very well suited for hub-to-hub and hub-feeder traffic. The dominant carriers in Florida today are Atlanta-based Delta Airlines and Fort Worth- based American Airlines, which also has a hub at Miami International. In the case of Delta Airlines, a large majority of its Florida traffic is routed through Atlanta. American Airlines has considerable in-state Florida service focused on Miami, but larger in scope are its routes from Miami to its other hubs at Dallas and San Juan and its flights to New York’s JFK International. While neither Delta nor American have placed orders for any NLA, as demand increases for Florida travel and as the current fleets age, it is likely that carriers could substitute obsolete large aircraft with NLA. This section provides details on shorter-haul routes that may see NLA (not the A380 or B747-8) in the future. Orlando-Atlanta – Delta controls approximately 64 percent of this market and competes primarily with low cost carrier AirTran. Delta operates a variety of aircraft on the route, including a large number of Boeing 767 aircraft. In 2007, the airline carried 890,600 passengers in 1,042,700 seats, for an average load factor of over 85 percent on aircraft averaging 227 seats. This route seems almost ideal for deployment of NLA as Delta retires older aircraft. Fort Lauderdale-Atlanta – Delta maintains approximately 65 percent of the market on this route, and in 2007 carried 665,000 passengers on aircraft as large as Boeing 767 (four daily flights) with a total capacity of 798,500 seats. This equates to an 83 percent load factor on flights averaging 204 seats. While not as dense as the Orlando-Atlanta route, it is quite reasonable to expect at least seasonal NLA activity in the future at Fort Lauderdale. Tampa-Atlanta – Delta maintains a 68 percent market share on this route, which in 2007 consisted of ten daily flights. The airline carried 634,600 passengers in 737,900 seats, for a load factor of 86 percent on aircraft averaging 201 seats. Three flights per day were on Boeing 767 aircraft. This route seems a good candidate for NLA at some point in the future. Jacksonville-Atlanta – Delta has a market share of approximately 75 percent of the Jacksonville-Atlanta market. In 2007, it carried 540,600 passengers on 3,481 flights with 664,100 seats, for a load factor of 81 percent and an average aircraft size of 190 seats. An average of 2.4 flights per day was on board Boeing 767 aircraft. Seasonal service to Atlanta from Jacksonville on NLA is a reasonable expectation in the future. Miami-New York JFK – American Airlines controls over 90 percent of this market and operates predominantly Airbus A300 and Boeing 767 and 777 aircraft. In 2007, American carried 383,600 passengers in 452,400 seats, for an average load factor of 85 percent. The route was served by 1,822 flights with an average seat count of 248 per flight. Given FDOT Aviation Office IV-17 Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task IV: Readiness Assessment congested conditions that prevail at JFK and are likely to continue, it is highly probable that American will seek to up-gauge its equipment to JFK on NLA. Miami-San Juan – San Juan is American’s Caribbean hub, and the airline enjoys a monopoly on the route. Typically hub-to-hub flights represent the largest capacity in an airline’s system, and San Juan is no exception for American. In 2007, the airline transported 476,800 passengers in aircraft consisting of 633,800 seats, for a load factor of over 75 percent. It operated the route with a high concentration of Airbus A300 and Boeing 767 aircraft and averaged 239 seats per aircraft. While this load factor is not necessarily high enough to warrant larger NLA aircraft, Puerto Rico is aggressively marketing itself to U.S. tourists as an easy alternative for international travel to the Caribbean. These factors seem to point to possible NLA activity on this route in the coming years. Miami-Dallas-Fort Worth – As another American hub airport, a monopoly exists for passengers traveling this route. In 2007, the airline carried 489,400 passengers in 580,600 seats, for an average load factor of 83 percent. The average aircraft size on this route was 181 seats. While this aircraft size is not in the same league as the NLA, it is worth noting that an average of no more than two flights per day were on Boeing 767 or 777 equipment, which may logically be replaced by some NLA models. Conclusions In the coming years, several of Florida’s airports may expect to handle the next generation of large aircraft. Growing demand for U.S. travel from foreign countries could allow Florida’s major international airports to accommodate NLA activity from overseas. Growing demand and aging fleets may lead domestic carriers serving Florida to substitute NLA on high- demand domestic routes. While few of the carriers now serving Florida have placed orders for NLA, it is reasonable to expect regular service by NLA at Florida airports in coming years. From the review completed in this section, Florida airports most likely to have NLA flights are Miami and Orlando, followed by Tampa, Fort Lauderdale, and Jacksonville. Orlando Sanford also expects NLA flights on charter carriers. Miami International is currently the only Florida airport expecting its air cargo carriers to use NLA. Cost Estimates Related to NLA Operations The cost of accommodating NLA was collected from the Florida airports responding to a survey completed as part of this study. The cost estimates for past, current and future NLA improvements provide a planning level, order of magnitude cost for subsequent economic impact analysis. Miami International Airport NLA Project Cost Summary Miami has not constructed a project to accommodate the A380, but has plans to upgrade one gate position. Several airfield projects may be required by the FAA, but these are still under review and identified as such. Planned Airfield Projects: • None FDOT Aviation Office IV-18 Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task IV: Readiness Assessment Planned Terminal Projects: • Gate J-17 modifications $2 million (2008$) Future Airfield Projects: • Widen Runway 8R-26L shoulders $11 million (2004$) • Strengthen Runway 9-27 pavement and widen shoulders $25 million (2004$) Future Terminal Projects: • Gate H-15 expansion $12 million (2004$) • Gate F-19/21 modifications $4 million (2004$) • Gate E-6 and E-8 modifications $5 million (2004$) Orlando International Airport NLA Project Cost Summary Orlando has prepared for the A380 by addressing Group VI standards when they rehabilitated two taxiways in 2007. Several other airfield and terminal projects are planned to be completed by 2012 before A380 service begins. Completed Airfield Projects: • Rehabilitate Taxiways E and F in 2007 $17 million Planned Airfield Projects: • Taxiway B improvements by 2012 $50 million • Taxiway bridge improvements by 2012 $1.5 million Planned Terminal Projects: • Airside Terminal 4 modifications by 2012 $6 million Tampa International Airport NLA Project Cost Summary Tampa’s terminal can accommodate one A380 today on Airside C and with additional loading bridges and hydrant fueling modifications will be capable of handling two more A380s on Airside F. In the future, the New North Terminal will be designed to include two gates for the A380. Below is a summary of the costs the airport associates with A380 modifications: Completed Terminal Projects: • Airside C A380 hydrant fueling $100,000 (2005) Planned Terminal Projects: • Airside C, F and New North Terminal jet bridges by 2013 $5million (2005$) • Airside F hydrant fueling by 2013 $400,000 (2005$) • New North Terminal FIS by 2018 $18,400,000 (2005$) Planned Airfield Projects: • None FDOT Aviation Office IV-19 Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task IV: Readiness Assessment NLA Map Figure IV-1 NLA Airports FDOT Aviation Office IV-20 Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task IV: Readiness Assessment VLJ Section Very Light Jet Service Market Characteristics This section provides information that helps to highlight city pairs in Florida that have either experienced elimination or reduction in commercial airline service. Because all of these city pairs had or have commercial airline service, the assumption can be made that there is demand for air travel between these Florida cities. Cities that have in the past been able to attract commercial airline service represent logical points of service for on-demand VLJ flights. As noted, since VLJ operational characteristics provide service flexibility, flights between city pairs may be accommodated at non-commercial airports. Passenger demand will ultimately determine what airports or city pairs have on-demand VLJ service. The information provided in this section highlights some of the bigger and more obvious city pairs that may be candidates for this type of service. Historical Losses of In-State Service Since 2000, many Florida communities have lost airline flights. Florida’s vast geography and distances between its major centers of population, business, and tourism make the ability to travel by air much more important than in most other states. Non-stop flights between cities in Florida provides vital links to centers of commerce. Now, such travel sometimes can only be completed if the traveler uses connecting hub outside of the state. For instance, a person wishing to use scheduled airline service to fly from Gainesville to Miami, as one option, would need to fly from Gainesville to Atlanta and then to Miami. Overall, in-state flights connecting the state’s commercial airports fell from 3,852 weekly flights in 2000 to 2,198 weekly flights in 2007, for a significant decline of 43 percent. Departing non-stop seats between Florida cities numbered 191,700 in 2000, and declined to 140,400 in 2007, for a decline of 27 percent. During this period, the average aircraft size used on in-state routes in Florida grew from 50 seats to 64 seats, as carriers substituted new regional jet aircraft on routes previously served by smaller turboprop aircraft. Serving short-haul in-state markets has always posed a challenge for the airlines. For in-state service, the airlines most often compete with the automobile for their passengers. Providing high frequency, well-timed and cost effective service between city pairs is often the key for the carriers to be able to capture the in-state traveler. As carriers have increased the size of the aircraft they employ on their routes in Florida, service frequency has fallen. Further, with current industry conditions and escalating fuel costs, the carriers are finding it increasingly more difficult to achieve profitability on short-haul routes that are not between high-density demand centers. These factors have contributed to the overall decline in Florida’s in-state commercial airline service in recent years. The following sections provide details of the major service reductions for in-state service among Florida’s commercial service airports between 2000 and 2007. Overall Trends in Weekly Frequencies Between 2000 and 2007, none of the 19 commercial airports in Florida experienced increased departures to other Florida cities. Miami saw the steepest declines in flights to in-state FDOT Aviation Office IV-21 Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task IV: Readiness Assessment destinations, losing over 350 weekly in-state departures over the period. Tampa and Orlando also saw losses of 320 and 306 departures, respectively. Each of these represented declines of more than 40 percent in weekly in-state departures. As previously noted, for all airports between 2000 and 2007, in-state air service (measured by weekly departure frequencies) in Florida declined by 43 percent. Among the airports with the largest percentage decreases in weekly departures were: • Naples (79 percent) • Sarasota (78 percent) • Palm Beach (66 percent) • Miami (50 percent) • Tallahassee (49 percent) While numerically Northwest Florida showed a significant reduction in in-state air service (Panama City 73 percent and Okaloosa Regional 49 percent of their weekly departures), much of this service was actually “tag” service between these two airports that then traveled on to an airline’s connecting hub outside of the state. Fort Lauderdale’s losses in in-state airline service were among the lowest during the period, declining by 41 departures or 11 percent. The airport’s larger losses in in-state service to Tampa, Orlando, and Sarasota were partially offset by improved frequencies to Pensacola, Tallahassee, and Key West. Individual Market/Route Trends This section identifies individual routes that experienced significant decreases in the number of departures performed each week. In many of the cases below, frequencies and capacity declined sometimes as a result of either increased airport security wait times or decreased in- state Delta connecting hub activity from Orlando to other cities in Florida. Passengers travel by air primarily because of the time savings air travel provides when compared to driving the same distance. When security wait times at airports increased following 9/11, in-state travel was impacted because the time saving advantages of air travel were diminished. Miami-Orlando – In 2000, there were an average of 212 weekly flights each way between Orlando and Miami, for an average of over 30 flights per day. This frequency made the city pair the most active among Florida’s in-state routes. By 2007, however, the city pair had lost 104 weekly flights, leaving it with 108 weekly departures each way, or just over 15 departures per day each way. Weekly seats in 2000 averaged 14,550, and fell to 10,218 in 2007 for a 30 percent decline. Departing flights were on larger aircraft in 2007 as compared to 2000. In 2000, the average aircraft operated on the route had 69 seats; and in 2007, the average aircraft seating capacity had increased to 95. American Airlines and its American Eagle regional carrier partners provided the bulk of flights on this route throughout the period. A high percentage of the decline in both frequency and capacity on the Miami-Orlando route can be attributed to security and additional wait times. FDOT Aviation Office IV-22 Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task IV: Readiness Assessment Miami-Tampa – This route seemed to suffer from much the same airport wait time phenomenon as the Miami-Orlando route. Carriers operating the Miami-Tampa route in 2000 operated 176 weekly flights, or approximately 25 flights per day. By 2007, weekly frequency on the route had fallen to 89 flights, or fewer than 13 departures per day. This represented approximately half of the flight frequency in 2000. During the same period, seat capacity decreased from 9,371 weekly seats to 6,105 weekly seats. Average aircraft size, in terms of seating capacity, increased during the period from 53 to 74. During the period, service was provided mainly on American Eagle and Continental Express. Miami-Key West – In 2000, travelers on this route could choose from 140 weekly departures, or 20 daily flights. By 2007, this frequency had declined to 67 weekly flights, or fewer than ten per day. Weekly seats fell from 6,041 to 3,121, for a 48 percent decrease. Average aircraft size rose slightly from 43 to 47 seats. The runway length at the commercial airport serving Key West limits the effective size of the commercial aircraft that can operate at this airport. Service between Miami and Key West has been provided mainly by American Eagle. It is worth noting, that historically, Key West was reachable by commercial airline service primarily from Miami. In recent years, service from other airports has become available. Orlando-West Palm Beach – Flights between these two cities seems to have been effected by airport wait times and reduced time savings over driving, as well as the reduction of hub activity by Delta at Orlando. In 2000, travelers on the route enjoyed 53 weekly flights consisting of 1,381 seats, or 26 seats per flight. This service was provided mainly by Delta Connection carrier Comair. In 2007, no scheduled carrier provided non-stop service between these two cities. Orlando-Tallahassee – This route lost 36 weekly departing flights between 2000 and 2007, falling from 66 to 30, a decline of 56 percent. Departing seats fell from 2,316 to 1,175 per week, for a 51 percent decrease. Average aircraft size increased from 35 seats to 39 over the period. In 2000, Delta partner Comair was the dominant carrier on the route, but by the end of the period US Airways Express and Continental Express provided the majority of the flights. Tampa-West Palm Beach – In 2000, carriers provided 90 weekly flights on this route, consisting of 3,528 seats. By 2007, only 39 weekly flights were provided, a contraction of 51 flights or a 43 percent reduction in flight frequency. Weekly seat counts fell to 2,190, for a decline of 38 percent. Average seats per aircraft climbed from 39 in 2000 to 75 in 2007. While the quantity of departures and seats declined over the period, this route is now dominated by Southwest Airlines, providing non-stop low-cost service between these two cities. Tampa-Fort Lauderdale – In 2000, weekly departures between Tampa and Fort Lauderdale numbered 125, or slightly less than 18 per day. By 2007, this figure had fallen to 97 weekly departures, or slightly less than 14 per day. In 2000, carriers provided 12,009 weekly seats on the route, and the average aircraft serving the route had 96 seats. In 2007, 9,476 seats were provided, for an average aircraft size of 98 seats. Over the period, Southwest Airlines provided the majority of seat capacity on this route. FDOT Aviation Office IV-23 Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task IV: Readiness Assessment Tampa-Key West – This market lost 33 weekly frequencies between 2000 and 2007, falling from 73 to 40 flights per week. This represents nearly five fewer daily flights at the end of the period compared to the beginning. At the same time, weekly seats between the cities fell from 1,275 to 773, while average aircraft size increased slightly from 17 seats to 19. This route has predominantly been served by Gulfstream Airlines, a regional partner of Continental Airlines. This carrier continues to use smaller turboprop aircraft. This is one of the few remaining commercial airline in-state routes in Florida served by a non-jet plane. Tampa-Tallahassee – Weekly departures on this route fell from 75 in 2000 to 43 in 2007, for a net loss of 32 weekly departures, or a schedule reduction of 43 percent. Capacity on the route declined from 2,384 weekly seats in 2000 to 1,406 in 2007, a decline of 41 percent. Average aircraft size increased slightly from 32 seats to 33 seats over the period. This market has predominantly been served by US Airways Express and Gulfstream Airlines. A summary of losses of weekly in-state departures among Florida’s commercial airports appears in Table IV-12. FDOT Aviation Office IV-24 Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task IV: Readiness Assessment Table IV-12 Florida Interstate Service Matrix Change In Weekly Scheduled Flight Departures (July 2000-2007) Florida Destination Florida Origin Ft. Lauderdale Miami Palm Beach Key West Marathon Orlando Melbourne Daytona Beach Orlando Sanford Tampa Sarasota/Bradenton St. Petersburg Jacksonville Gainesville Southwest Florida Naples Pensacola Tallahassee Ft. Walton Beach Panama City Total Florida Southeast Ft. - (2) 9 - (18) - - - (33) (20) - (2) - - - 13 12 - - (41) Lauderdale Miami (2) - (66) - (104) - - - (90) (21) - (12) 11 (21) (21) - (27) - - (353) Palm Beach (1) - - - (53) - - - (51) ------(1) - - (106) Key West 11 (73) - - (13) - - - (33) - - - - 5 (6) - - - - (109) Marathon ------East Central Orlando (25) (104) (53) (13) - - - - (14) (23) - (6) - (7) (13) (13) (36) (6) 2 (311) Melbourne ------Daytona ------Beach Orlando ------Sanford West Central Tampa (31) (87) (49) (38) - (14) - - - 14 - (30) (11) (19) (18) 4 (32) 12 (19) (318) Sarasota (20) (21) - - - (23) - - - 14 ------(50) St. ------Petersburg Northeast/ North Central Jacksonville 2 (14) - - - (8) - - - (30) ------(19) - - (69) Gainesville - 11 ------(11) ------Southwest Southwest - (21) - 5 - (7) - - - (19) ------(42) FL Naples - (21) - (6) - (6) - - - (25) ------(58) Northwest Pensacola 13 - - - - (13) - - - 4 ------(19) - - (15) Tallahassee 12 (27) (1) - - (36) - - - (32) - - (19) - - - (19) - - (122) Ft. Walton - - - - - (11) - - - 6 ------(19) (24) Beach Panama ------(6) ------(30) (36) City TOTAL (41) (357) (105) (109) - (306) - - - (320) (50) - (69) - (42) (58) (15) (122) (24) (36) (1,654) FDOT Aviation Office IV-25 Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task IV: Readiness Assessment Service Withdrawals The following list shows the Florida intra-state markets that saw a complete withdrawal of service between 2000 and 2007 and the number of weekly departures lost between each: • Fort Lauderdale-Sarasota (20) • Miami-Sarasota (21) • Miami-Naples (21) • Orlando-West Palm Beach (53) • Orlando-Tampa (14) • Orlando-Sarasota (23) • Orlando-Jacksonville (8) • Orlando-Naples (6) • Tampa-Naples (25) • Tampa-Panama City (6) • Jacksonville-Tallahassee (19) • Tallahassee-Pensacola (19) Many of these city pairs, such as Orlando-West Palm Beach, were affected by increased airport wait times that changed the “drive-fly” decision for many travelers. As highlighted in this section, the ability of travelers to use commercial airline service to travel between cities in Florida has diminished. Historically, many of Florida’s centers of business, population, and tourism have never been tied together by scheduled commercial airline service. For those city pairs in Florida that have experienced elimination or reductions in commercial airline and for those that have never had scheduled airline service, on-demand service on VLJs may provide new connectivity options. Frequency, reliability, cost, and time savings are all factors which impact, to varying degrees, a passenger’s desire to travel by air. While not every traveler using commercial airline service to travel between cities in Florida is a candidate for on-demand service provided by a VLJ, many are. In addition, there are other travelers, especially business travelers, who have always made in-state trips by car that may be candidates to use point-to-point VLJ service in Florida. Since characteristics for VLJs make them capable of operating at many general aviation airports, these aircraft open up new in-state city pairs in Florida for air service that can be scheduled to meet the traveler’s needs. VLJ Readiness Assessment It is important for airports in Florida and for the Florida Department of Transportation to have a general understanding of the facilities that could most likely be required to support operations by VLJ aircraft. VLJs are being used by both private operators and by operators who are using these aircraft to provide on-demand air taxi service under guidelines contained in CFR Part 135. As this study has discussed, facility and operating needs of VLJ aircraft vary by aircraft type. Nevertheless, in order to determine the readiness of Florida airports to serve VLJs operated FDOT Aviation Office IV-26 Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task IV: Readiness Assessment by both private and on-demand operators, it was necessary to establish a general set of facility/service criteria that both types of operators will most likely seek at airports where they choose to fly. In order to establish facility/service criteria for private and on-demand VLJ operators, several sources were considered. These sources included: • Information provided by Florida airports and operators who are certified under Part 139 and Part 135 that were surveyed as part of this study. • Data from the manufacturers of VLJ aircraft as they relate to the operating needs of these planes. • Guidelines for operators providing on-demand service that fly under Part 135. • Information from on-demand air service providers flying VLJ aircraft in Florida. • Guidelines from the FAA as they relate to airport approach capabilities and runway length. The objectives for establishing facility/service criteria to meet the needs of the two types of VLJ users were to: • Generally outline facilities and services that are most desirable to both private and on-demand VLJ operators. • Identify airports in the Florida system that are now fully equipped to serve the needs of either or both private or on-demand operators flying VLJ aircraft. • Help airports identify either facilities or services that they currently lack that would make them more attractive to VLJ aircraft and their operators. • Provide input on future airport planning, project funding and project prioritization to insure Florida has a comprehensive system of airports to meet the needs of both types of VLJ operators. It is likely that actual facility and service criteria for both private and on-demand operators could vary from those outlined in this section. In some cases, operator requirements may be more demanding; and in other instances, operators may be willing to fly to airports that do not provide all of the facilities and services identified as being desirable by this analysis. From the various sources noted above, it was concluded that the facility and service needs for on-demand operators flying VLJ aircraft will be more demanding than those of private operators. It was also concluded that for both private and on-demand operators flying VLJ aircraft, both operator types prefer to operate at airports that have a published approach. That being the case, FAA guidelines on minimum runway lengths for non-precision and precision approaches were used to set minimum runway lengths desirable for both types of operators. For both private and on-demand operators, four “tiers” of airports were established. Airports in Tier 1 for both user groups have facilities and services that were identified as being desirable. Airports in the lowest tier, Tier 4, generally had less than the runway length identified as being desirable for both user groups. Airports assigned to either Tier 2 or Tier 3 FDOT Aviation Office IV-27 Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task IV: Readiness Assessment had some, but not all, of the facilities and services sought by both private and on-demand operators flying VLJ aircraft. Table IV-13 presents the facilities and services that will generally be sought by private operators flying VLJ aircraft. As shown in this table from research, surveys, and interviews conducted as part of this study, it was concluded that private operators flying VLJ aircraft will generally seek airports that have a runway that is at least 3,200 feet long, served by at least one non-precision approach. Private VLJ operators also prefer airports that provide Jet A fuel and that have oxygen available. Table IV-13 Florida Airport Readiness: VLJ Private Use Initial Proposed Airport VLJ Readiness Categorization Private Operations Paved runway at least 3,200’; at least one non- Tier P-I precision approach; Jet A and oxygen Paved runway at least 3,200’; at least one non- Tier P-II precision approach; no Jet A; or no oxygen Paved runway at least 3,200’; no non-precision Tier P-III approach; no Jet A; or no oxygen Tier P-IV Longest paved runway less than 3,200’ Table IV-14 presents the facilities and services that will generally be sought by on-demand operators flying VLJ aircraft. As shown in this table from research, surveys, and interviews conducted as part of this study, it was concluded that on-demand operators flying VLJ aircraft will generally seek airports that have a runway that is at least 4,200 feet long, served by precision/LPV approaches to two runway ends. On-demand VLJ operators also prefer airports that provide Jet A fuel and that have oxygen available. Because they are carrying customers, on-demand air taxi operators flying VLJ aircraft also prefer an airport that has some type of “terminal” facility for picking up and dropping off their customers. Table IV-14 VLJ Air Taxi Readiness Assessment Initial Proposed Airport VLJ Readiness Categorization On-demand Operations Paved runway at least 4,200’; two runway ends Tier O-I with precision/LPV approaches; terminal; Jet A and oxygen Paved runway at least 4,200’; at least one Tier O-II precision/LPV approaches; Jet A; oxygen; no terminal Paved runway at least 4,200’; and no precision Tier O-III instrument approach Tier O-IV Longest paved runway less than 4,200’ Source: Wilbur Smith Associates, Analysis, June 2008. FDOT Aviation Office IV-28 Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task IV: Readiness Assessment Table IV-15 Tier Assignments for VLJ Operators Airport VLJ Readiness Tier Assignments Airport has all necessary facilities/services Tier P-1 (private) Airport has been identified by an on-demand Tier O-1 (on-demand) operator as a primary market from which they will operate Airport is lacking at least one primary Tier P-2 (private) facility/service Tier O-2 (on-demand) Airport has not been identified yet as a primary market from on-demand users will operate Tier P-3 (private) Airport is lacking multiple facilities/services Tier O-3 (on-demand) Tier P-4 (private) Airport does not have minimum facilities/services Tier O-4 (on-demand) Using the information in Tables IV-13, IV-14, and IV-15, all system airports with paved runways were assigned to one of the four tiers for private operators and one of the four tiers for on-demand operators. Tables IV-16 and IV-17 and Figures IV-2 and IV-3 show the results of this process. In all, 106 of the system airports (all airports with paved runways and one airport with plans to pave its runway) were considered in this process. FDOT Aviation Office IV-29 Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task IV: Readiness Assessment Table IV-16 Airport Assignments Tiers for Private Operators Tier P-1 Airports Tier P-2 Airports CEW Bob Sikes Airport CRG Craig Municipal Airport BCT Boca Raton Airport TNT Dade-Collier Training and Transition Airport VQQ Cecil Field DED Deland Municipal-Sidney H Taylor Field DAB Daytona Beach International Airport HEG Herlong Airport DTS Destin-Ft Walton Beach Airport X14 La Belle Municipal Airport ORL Executive Airport X50 Massey Ranch Airpark FXE Ft Lauderdale Executive Airport COI Merritt Island Airport FLL Ft Lauderdale/Hollywood International Airport EVB New Smyrna Beach Municipal Airport GNV Gainesville Regional Airport F45 North Palm Beach County General Aviation Airport BKV Hernando County Airport OMN Ormond Beach Municipal Airport JAX Jacksonville International Airport FMY Page Field TMB Kendall-Tamiami Executive Airport LNA Palm Beach County Park Airport ISM Kissimmee Gateway Airport 2R4 Peter Prince Field MIA Miami International Airport PCM Plant City Airport OCF Ocala International-Jim Taylor Field TIX Space Coast Regional Airport SFB Orlando Sanford International Airport MTH The Florida Keys Marathon Airport PBI Palm Beach International Airport CHN Wauchula Municipal Airport PFN Panama City-Bay County International Airport GIF Winter Haven's Gilbert Airport PNS Pensacola Regional Airport AVO Avon Park Executive Airport TPF Peter O Knight Airport LCQ Lake City Municipal Airport PMP Pompano Beach Airpark VRB Vero Beach Municipal Airport SRQ Sarasota/Bradenton International Airport 28J Palatka Municipal-Lt. Kay Larkin Field RSW Southwest Florida International Airport BOW Bartow Municipal Airport SGJ St Augustine Airport 55J Fernandina Beach Municipal Airport FPR St Lucie County International Airport CTY Cross City Airport PIE St Petersburg-Clearwater International Airport IMM Immokalee Airport TLH Tallahassee Regional Airport MKY Marco Island Airport TPA Tampa International Airport 42J Keystone Airpark OPF Opa Locka Executive Airport X35 Dunnellon/Marion County & Park of Commerce Ai t APF Naples Municipal Airport SUA Witham Field ZPH Zephyrhills Municipal Airport 40J Perry-Foley Airport OBE Okeechobee County Airport X60 Williston Municipal Airport AAF Apalachicola Regional Airport HWO North Perry Airport PGD Charlotte County Airport VNC Venice Municipal Airport EYW Key West International Airport LAL Lakeland Linder Regional Airport LEE Leesburg International Airport MLB Melbourne International Airport MCO Orlando International Airport VDF Vandenberg Airport SEF Sebring Regional Airport MAI Marianna Municipal Airport XFL Flagler County Airport FDOT Aviation Office IV-30 Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task IV: Readiness Assessment Table IV-16 (continued) Airport Assignments Tiers for Private Operators Tier P-3 Airports Tier P-4 Airports 2IS Airglades Airport X25 Chalet Suzanne Air Strip X06 Arcadia Municipal Airport CDK George T Lewis Airport X10 Belle Glade State Municipal Airport X01 Everglades Airpark X13 Carrabelle-Thompson Airport X23 Umatilla Municipal Airport CLW Clearwater Air Park X04 Orlando Apopka Airport CGC Crystal River Airport SPG Albert Whitted Airport 54J Defuniak Springs Airport X21 Arthur Dunn Air Park 82J Ferguson Airport X05 Pilot Country Airport X51 Homestead General Aviation Airport 68J Tallahassee Commercial X40 Inverness Airport 2J9 Quincy Municipal Airport X07 Lake Wales Municipal Airport PHK Palm Beach County Glades Airport 2RR River Ranch Resort Airport X26 Sebastian Municipal Airport F47 St George Island Airport 24J Suwannee County Airport X39 Tampa North Aero Park 1J0 Tri-County Airport X59 Valkaria Airport FDOT Aviation Office IV-31 Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task IV: Readiness Assessment Table IV-17 Airport Assignments Tiers for On-Demand Operators Tier O-1 Airports Tier O-2 Airports AAF Apalachicola Regional Airport TNT Dade-Collier Training and Transition Airport CEW Bob Sikes Airport LCQ Lake City Municipal Airport BCT Boca Raton Airport VQQ Cecil Field EYW Key West International Airport SGJ St Augustine Airport LEE Leesburg International Airport OCF Ocala International-Jim Taylor Field SFB Orlando Sanford International Airport VRB Vero Beach Municipal Airport VDF Vandenberg Airport FMY Page Field TMB Kendall-Tamiami Executive Airport ORL Executive Airport ISM Kissimmee Gateway Airport FXE Ft Lauderdale Executive Airport OPF Opa Locka Executive Airport 28J Palatka Municipal-Lt. Kay Larkin Field PFN Panama City-Bay County International Airport AVO Avon Park Executive Airport RSW Southwest Florida International Airport APF Naples Municipal Airport PGD Charlotte County Airport X14 La Belle Municipal Airport DAB Daytona Beach International Airport ZPH Zephyrhills Municipal Airport GNV Gainesville Regional Airport BKV Hernando County Airport PMP Pompano Beach Airpark MTH The Florida Keys Marathon Airport SRQ Sarasota/Bradenton International Airport GIF Winter Haven's Gilbert Airport PIE St Petersburg-Clearwater International Airport BOW Bartow Municipal Airport LAL Lakeland Linder Regional Airport 55J Fernandina Beach Municipal Airport MLB Melbourne International Airport CTY Cross City Airport PNS Pensacola Regional Airport IMM Immokalee Airport FLL Ft Lauderdale/Hollywood International Airport MKY Marco Island Airport PBI Palm Beach International Airport TIX Space Coast Regional Airport TPA Tampa International Airport VNC Venice Municipal Airport TLH Tallahassee Regional Airport DTS Destin-Ft Walton Beach Airport JAX Jacksonville International Airport 42J Keystone Airpark MIA Miami International Airport FPR St Lucie County International Airport MCO Orlando International Airport X35 Dunnellon/Marion County & Park of Commerce Ai t SEF Sebring Regional Airport SUA Witham Field MAI Marianna Municipal Airport 40J Perry-Foley Airport XFL Flagler County Airport X60 Williston Municipal Airport OBE Okeechobee County Airport F45 North Palm Beach County General Aviation Airport HWO North Perry Airport DED Deland Municipal-Sidney H Taylor Field EVB New Smyrna Beach Municipal Airport CRG Craig Municipal Airport FDOT Aviation Office IV-32 Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task IV: Readiness Assessment Table IV-17 (continued) Airport Assignments Tiers for On-Demand Operators Tier O-3 Airports Tier O-4 Airports 2IS Airglades Airport X25 Chalet Suzanne Air Strip 2RR River Ranch Resort Airport CDK George T Lewis Airport CGC Crystal River Airport X01 Everglades Airpark 54J Defuniak Springs Airport X23 Umatilla Municipal Airport X04 Orlando Apopka Airport 2J9 Quincy Municipal Airport SPG Albert Whitted Airport X21 Arthur Dunn Air Park 68J Tallahassee Commercial X05 Pilot Country Airport 82J Ferguson Airport F47 St George Island Airport TPF Peter O Knight Airport LNA Palm Beach County Park Airport CLW Clearwater Air Park X39 Tampa North Aero Park COI Merritt Island Airport X06 Arcadia Municipal Airport 2R4 Peter Prince Field X10 Belle Glade State Municipal Airport X40 Inverness Airport X50 Massey Ranch Airpark PCM Plant City Airport X51 Homestead General Aviation Airport X07 Lake Wales Municipal Airport X13 Carrabelle-Thompson Airport HEG Herlong Airport X26 Sebastian Municipal Airport 1J0 Tri-County Airport X59 Valkaria Airport CHN Wauchula Municipal Airport OMN Ormond Beach Municipal Airport 24J Suwannee County Airport PHK Palm Beach County Glades Airport FDOT Aviation Office IV-33 Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task IV: Readiness Assessment Figure IV-2 Private Operator Tiers FDOT Aviation Office IV-34 Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task IV: Readiness Assessment Figure IV-3 On-Demand Operator Tiers From review accomplished as part of this study, it can be concluded that VLJ operators will most likely operate at airports that have been assigned to either Tier 1 or Tier 2 in both the private operator and the on-demand operator categories. From the information shown in Tables IV-15 and IV-16, 73 percent of the airports considered in the analysis have been assigned to Tier 1 or Tier 2 for private VLJ operator needs. An estimated 64 percent of all Florida airports considered in the analysis now fall into Tier 1 or Tier 2 for on-demand operator needs. A high percentage of the airports in Florida system now meet the facility and service criteria that will be sought by private and on-demand VLJ operators. As VLJ activity grows in Florida and as airports prepare their future development plans as part of their individual airport master plans, the need to consider improvements to accommodate VLJ activity should be considered. FDOT Aviation Office IV-35 Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task IV: Readiness Assessment Florida Airport Readiness Summary Florida’s readiness to accommodate Next Generation Aircraft is most appropriately considered by separately examining the needs of NLA and VLJs. Currently, carriers have announced concrete plans to fly NLA to only two of the commercial airports in Florida, Miami International and Orlando International. Both airports have known about these plans for some time. Both airports have taken steps to either upgrade their facilities to meet Group VI design standards, or they have applied to the FAA for modifications to standards. In some cases, because of the infrequent use of NLA at the Florida airports, at least in the near term, these modifications to standards have been granted. Tampa International has been identified as a diversion airport for the A380 and is undertaking appropriate steps to accommodate NLA in this role. Orlando Sanford International is also planning to serve NLA. It is likely that a charter carrier will use NLA to provide flights to Orlando Sanford from destinations in Europe. As part of its master planning process, this airport has identified the steps it would need to take to serve NLA. All four of the commercial airports in Florida that will most likely see NLA operations in the next five years are prepared or are getting ready to serve the unique operating needs of NLA. Florida is in a good position to serve NLA in the near term. It is possible that as NLA are used on domestic routes; both Fort Lauderdale/Hollywood International and Jacksonville International may also have NLA activity and airports mentioned above will have more NLA activity. As NLA activity grows and becomes more common place, airports noted here as well as additional commercial airports in Florida may need to consider other development to accommodate these planes. The actual operating needs of NLA and their resultant facility requirements are evolving. Therefore, while the information presented in this report is current as of July 2008, airports will need to stay abreast of carrier plans and facility needs for NLA to insure they are ready for these Next Generation Aircraft. Requirements for VLJs are far less demanding, and the majority of Florida airports are ready now to serve the needs of both private and on-demand operators. With a high percentage of its airports with runway lengths in excess of 3,200 feet, served by a published approach, Florida is in an excellent position to meet the needs of private VLJ operators. Further, Florida has many commercial and general aviation airports that have runways that are at least 4,200 feet long and these runways are served by precision or near precision approaches, making these airports attractive to on-demand VLJ operators and private VLJ operators. Florida has been selected by the FAA as the “test bed” for the Next Generation Airspace system. Much of the advanced technology associated with this system will be operational in Florida in less than five years. With the deployment of new airspace systems, virtually all paved airports in Florida with an appropriate runway length will be accessible by VLJ aircraft. Florida’s readiness to serve VLJ aircraft is excellent, and this readiness will only improve with anticipated improvements to the national airspace system. FDOT Aviation Office IV-36 Task 5 Activity Outlook Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task V: Activity Outlook Introduction This section provides an outlook for future NLA and VLJ activity in Florida. Techniques used in this section are not comparable to typical aviation demand forecasts or projections. Most often, traditional aviation demand forecasting relies, to at least some extent, on historical trends. Since both NLA and VLJ represent totally new aircraft to the operating fleet, there are no historical trends upon which to base projections. Because of the uniqueness of this effort, it is more appropriate to consider this an activity outlook as opposed to a true projection or forecast. The outlooks for both NLA and VLJs presented in this section rely on projections previously developed by various government agencies, manufacturers and other aerospace consulting firms. Information on “ordered” aircraft also factors into this analysis. The general approach for each outlook considers worldwide production and delivery of both NLA and VLJs, and the portion of both types of aircraft that are most likely to operate in the U.S. With these two initial steps, it is then possible to provide an outlook for the number of NLA and VLJs that could operate in Florida. For each analysis, high, moderate and low demand levels for various activity components were developed to portray a range of demand that might be experienced in the state. Activity outlooks for 2013 and 2018 were developed for both NLA and VLJs. Given the fact these demand outlooks were prepared at a time when both NLA and VLJ technology are both emerging and the fact that the industry is facing record high fuel prices, these demand outlooks should be revisited possibly in another 12 to 24 months. While larger commercial airports in Florida have taken steps to plan for and accommodate NLA, surveys undertaken for this effort indicate that few Florida airports have planned specifically for VLJs. Given the flexibility of VLJs, in terms of their operating characteristics and needs, as airports in Florida undertake updates to their master plans and airport layout plans information presented in this section should be used by airports to incorporate VLJ demand into their planning process. The following portions of this section provide first a Florida-specific outlook for NLA and then for VLJs. FDOT Aviation Office V-1 Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task V: Activity Outlook New Large Aircraft Outlook As a premier leisure and business destination for travelers from around the world, Florida enjoys a wide array of commercial air service offerings. Scheduled airline service to and from Florida is available to hundreds of domestic and international destinations. Increasingly, Florida’s major airports have seen the introduction of large aircraft on high-density routes. Aircraft such as the Boeing 747 and 777 and the Airbus A330 and A340 have been deployed on many long-haul international routes, while planes like Boeing’s 767 and Airbus’ A300 serve high-density domestic routes. It is clear that the new large aircraft fleet currently entering production will affect air service offerings in Florida. As carriers deploy these aircraft, it is highly likely that the Airbus A380 and A350 and the Boeing 787 and 747-8 could serve cities in Florida. In previous sections, potential markets were identified on which these NLA could be deployed. This section focuses on projections of activity for these new aircraft in Florida. Specific attention is paid to current large aircraft service, future carrier acquisition and deployment plans, and forecasts of worldwide NLA fleet production. From this information and data, an outlook for NLA activity in Florida is derived. It should be noted that predictions for carrier acquisitions are inherently dependent on many variables. Carrier financial performance (especially given recent surges in fuel prices), manufacturer production schedules, and general economic conditions all have a bearing on the frequency and passenger load on an airline’s routes. Significant changes in any of these factors will have an effect on the outlook presented here and on plans for new aircraft acquisition. For example, the Airbus A350 is scheduled to enter service in 2012. Recent history has shown that the complex processes involved in the manufacture and certification of aircraft can result in production delays. As such, a significant slip in the production schedule for any of the NLA aircraft could result in lower levels of aircraft delivery, which would subsequently influence the anticipated NLA activity outlook provided in this section. Current Weekly Large Aircraft Operations In an average week in 2007 in Florida, airlines offered approximately 735 departures on current large aircraft. For this section, the current large aircraft fleet are defined as those with 210 seats or more, namely the Airbus A300, A310, A330 and A340 and the Boeing 747, 757- 300, 767-300 and -400, and 777. These flights averaged 259 seats and operated at load factors of approximately 80 percent, for an average passenger load of 207 passengers. Table V-1 shows details of the current large aircraft mix for Florida. FDOT Aviation Office V-2 Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task V: Activity Outlook Table V-1 Florida Large Aircraft Fleet Mix: 2007 Domestic Operations International Operations Total Weekly Seats/ Load Weekly Seats/ Load Weekly Seats/ Load Aircraft Ops Flight Factor Ops Flight Factor Ops Flight Factor A300 105 26777% 104 267 74% 209 26775% A310 N/A 6 255 69% 6 255 69% A330 N/A 29250 79% 29 25079% A340-200 N/A 2 250 77% 2 250 77% A340-300 N/A 8 260 89% 8 26089% A340-600 N/A 6 315 86% 6 315 86% B747-200/300 N/A 1 374 75% 1 37475% B747-400 N/A 52 406 82% 52 406 82% B757-300 80 21885% N/A 80 21885% B767-300 127 242 83% 120 223 78% 247 233 79% B767-400 34 28081% N/A 34 28081% B777 17 246 88% 44 258 82% 61 254 84% Total 364 24781% 372 271 78% 735 25980% Sources: U.S. Department of Transportation, T-100 Data from September 2006 to August 2007, and Wilbur Smith Associates, Analysis, May 20008. In addition to passenger operations, two cargo companies operate Boeing 747 aircraft from Miami International. Atlas/Polar Air Cargo and Korean Air Cargo serve the airport nine times weekly. These nine cargo flights, plus the 715 weekly passenger flights, equate to an average of approximately 103 large aircraft serving Florida’s airports per day. These 103 planes account for 2.4 percent of the total worldwide fleet of large aircraft, which numbered about 4,300 in 2008. The majority of capacity on these large aircraft was provided on A300 and 767-300 aircraft. American Airlines is the only operator of A300 aircraft in Florida, and American is the largest single operator of Boeing 767-300 aircraft on international flights departing the state. Numerous foreign carriers employ additional 767-300s, while Delta Air Lines employs a large number of the 767s on its high-density domestic routes. Of the airlines that currently operate large aircraft from Florida’s airports, the majority have not placed orders for NLA, as defined in this analysis. Among Florida’s current passenger carriers, only Air France, British Airways, First Choice, Lufthansa, and Virgin Atlantic have placed orders for NLA; both Atlas/Polar and Korean have placed orders for freighter variants of NLA. These carriers now account for 78 weekly departures from Florida’s airports or average daily operations of approximately 11 aircraft. Approximately ten of these daily departures are passenger flights; the average seat count on these flights is 378 and the average load factor is 81 percent. FDOT Aviation Office V-3 Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task V: Activity Outlook Summary of Worldwide NLA Forecasts Several notable aerospace consulting firms maintain forecasts of aircraft deliveries. Forecast data as prepared by two independent firms, Forecast International and the Teal Group, were obtained. Their forecasts for the four NLA models covered by this study are presented in Tables V-2 and V-3 below. Table V-2 NLA Annual Delivery Forecasts 2007-2017: Forecast International 200 Aircraft 7 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Totals A350 0 0 0 0 0 3 13 48 72 148 149 433 A380 8 9 23 44 38 36 37 34 35 33 34 331 747-8 0 1 4 22 24 22 21 24 22 25 24 189 787 1 5 57 101 122 141 146 148 147 148 150 1,166 Yearly 9 15 84 167 184 202 217 254 276 354 357 2,119 Deliveries Cumulative 9 24 108 275 459 661 878 1,132 1,408 1,762 2,119 NLA Fleet Source: Forecast International, Civil Aircraft Forecast, April 2008. Table V-3 NLA Annual Delivery Forecasts 2007-2017: Teal Group Aircraft 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Totals A350 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 65 90 90 255 A380 1 12 23 30 28 24 22 22 22 20 20 224 747-8 0 0 6 18 24 26 26 28 28 28 28 212 787 0 0 10 70 100 120 145 145 145 145 150 1,030 Yearly 1 12 39 118 152 170 193 205 260 283 288 1,721 Deliveries Cumulative 1 13 52 170 322 492 685 890 1,150 1,433 1,721 NLA Fleet Source: Teal Group, World Military and Civil Aircraft Briefing, March 2008. The forecasts shown in Tables V-2 and V-3 vary somewhat, primarily in the total annual production of NLA by Airbus. Forecast International predicts an earlier introduction and faster ramp-up of the A350 than does the Teal Group, and has a more optimistic forecast of A380 deliveries. On the other hand, the two forecasts agree closely on out-year deliveries of Boeing’s NLA. In general, terms, however, the forecasts agree in the relative magnitude of each manufacturer’s share of the total NLA fleet. Figures V-1 and V-2 graphically depict the forecast rollout and delivery schedule of the four NLA aircraft. FDOT Aviation Office V-4 Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task V: Activity Outlook Figure V-1 Worldwide NLA Delivery Forecasts 2007-2017: Forecast International 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 A350 A380 747-8 787 Source: Forecast International, Civil Aircraft Forecast, April 2008. Figure V-2 Worldwide NLA Delivery Forecasts 2007-2017: Teal Group 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 A350 A380 747-8 787 Source: Teal Group, World Military and Civil Aircraft Briefing, March 2008. Figure V-3 shows the cumulative NLA fleet forecast that results from each of the two individual forecasts shown above. An outlook for 2018 deliveries was developed to produce a ten-year planning horizon for this document. FDOT Aviation Office V-5 Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task V: Activity Outlook Figure V-3 Cumulative Worldwide NLA Delivery Forecast Summary: Forecast International and Teal Group 3000 2018: FI: 2,500 NLAs 2500 TG: 2,000 NLAs 2000 1500 2013: FI: 878 NLAs TG: 685 NLAs 1000 500 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Forecast International Teal Group Sources: Forecast International, Civil Aircraft Forecast, April 2008; Teal Group, World Military and Civil Aircraft Briefing, March 2008; and Wilbur Smith Associates, Data extrapolated for 2018, May 2008. As shown in Figure V-3, the two forecasts differ widely in 2018, by approximately 500 aircraft. In 2013, the disparity is narrower, at fewer than 200 aircraft. However, given the two forecasts’ relative differences, for the purposes of this document it is appropriate to proceed with an outlook for Florida’s NLA fleet using an average of the two existing projections. Table V-4 shows the outcome. Table V-4 Combined Worldwide NLA Delivery Forecast: 2007-2018 Aircraft 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Totals A350 0 0 0 0 0 2 7 29 69 119 120 120 466 A380 5 11 23 37 33 30 30 28 29 27 27 25 305 B747-8 0 1 5 20 24 24 24 26 25 27 26 25 227 B787 1 3 34 86 111 131 146 147 146 147 150 150 1,252 Yearly 6 15 62 143 168 187 207 230 269 320 323 320 2,250 Deliveries Cumulative 1,28 1,60 1,93 2,25 6 21 83 226 394 581 788 1,018 NLA Fleet 7 7 0 0 Sources: Forecast International, Civil Aircraft Forecast, April 2008; Teal Group, World Military and Civil Aircraft Briefing, March 2008; and Wilbur Smith Associates, Data extrapolated for 2018, May 2008. Low NLA Activity Outlook: Current Carrier Plans In the spring of 2008, all commercial airports in Florida were contacted to gather information on their current knowledge of carrier’s plans to introduce NLA at their specific facility. Among all of Florida’s commercial airports, only Orlando International and Miami FDOT Aviation Office V-6 Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task V: Activity Outlook International reported knowledge of specific plans by carriers to introduce NLA. Both of these airports have undertaken or will be completing capital projects to accommodate the A380. Expected NLA service for these airports is useful to provide a baseline outlook for NLA activity in Florida. Specifically, management from these airports report expecting the following NLA service: • Orlando International: o Virgin Atlantic A380 to London Gatwick after 2013, no frequency reported o Boeing 787 service on an unnamed charter carrier prior to 2013 • Miami International: o Lufthansa A380 to Frankfurt or Munich, two to three weekly flights prior to 2013 and four to seven weekly flights after 2013 o Lufthansa B747-8 to Frankfurt or Munich, two to five weekly flights prior to 2013 and six to seven weekly flights after 2013 o Air France A380 to Paris, two or three flights per week prior to 2013 and four to seven weekly flights after 2013 o British Airways B787 to London, two to five flights per week prior to 2013 and six to seven weekly flights after 2013 o Virgin Atlantic A380 to London on an unannounced frequency and timeframe Combined, these expected NLA service introductions amount to a range of approximately 14 to 25 weekly flights before 2013, and 32 to 49 weekly flights after 2013. For undisclosed routes and frequencies, an estimate of weekly frequencies based on other announcements was made. The expectations for the introduction of NLA, provided by airport representatives, are not adjusted for seasonality. It is expected that NLA aircraft will be deployed during peak travel periods throughout the year, and thus these estimates as reported by airport representatives most likely represent the maximum level of NLA activity for each of the two commercial airports in Florida anticipating these planes. At this time, no commercial airport in Florida is reporting any announced plans by domestic carriers to introduce NLA aircraft. Currently, orders placed for NLA by domestic carriers are expected to be deployed on international routes from gateway airports not located in Florida. Using the minimum of the range for anticipated NLA operations produces a demand outlook that can be viewed as very conservative. That is, these planes are already on order from the respective manufacturers. Further, the airports have been notified of their intended use and have or will have implemented airside and landside improvements to accommodate NLA. Each of the two respective airports has been provided with information on the minimum level of service each can expect. This minima range was used as the baseline or low outlook for NLA activity in Florida. FDOT Aviation Office V-7 Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task V: Activity Outlook The minimum of each of these ranges yields an outlook for approximately 14 weekly NLA flights in 2013 and 32 weekly NLA flights in 2018. This translates to roughly two and five daily NLA flights in each period, respectively. For comparison purposes, service on current large aircraft by domestic and foreign-flagged carriers averages 103 flights per day, including cargo aircraft. The two and five daily arrivals/departures on NLA at Florida airports equates to approximately 0.25 percent of the worldwide NLA fleet as now projected by other industry experts. Low Demand NLA Outlook 2013 Daily Departures: 2 2018 Daily Departures: 5 Moderate NLA Activity Outlook: Current Carrier Plans As reported above, the range for NLA activity at the Miami International and Orlando International airports was 14 to 25 weekly flights before 2013 and 32 to 49 weekly flights by 2018. Using the high end of these ranges produces a moderate demand outlook. This more moderate activity outlook assumes success for existing NLA implementation plans. Essentially, this outlook assumes that if a carrier indicates a range of possible frequencies on NLA, it is “hedging” in case the route proves to be economically unviable at higher frequencies. To produce a moderate activity outlook, it was assumed that the current NLA fleet deployment plans for Miami and Orlando International, as now reported, will be successful. This success will enable the activity at each airport to reach the high end of the NLA demand range reported by the respective airport staff. Thus, the moderate outlook produces estimates of NLA activity equaling 25 weekly flights by 2013 and 49 weekly flights by 2018. This equates to approximately four and seven daily flights, respectively, for each of this study’s demand milestones. For comparison purposes, service on current large aircraft by domestic and foreign-flagged carriers equals 103 flights per day, including cargo aircraft. The four and seven daily flights by NLA at Florida airports would represent approximately 0.5 percent of the worldwide NLA fleet forecast shown previously. Moderate NLA Demand Outlook 2013 Daily Departures: 4 2018 Daily Departures: 7 High NLA Activity Outlook: Current and New Carrier Plans The moderate demand outlook presented in the previous section was augmented by considering additional NLA flights that might take place in Florida on carriers that currently do not serve Florida airports or on carriers that do not employ NLA on existing routes to and from Florida. It is possible to envision a scenario in which additional carriers, such as those FDOT Aviation Office V-8 Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task V: Activity Outlook identified in the NLA Market Assessment discussion, from Asia and other areas of the world, could add NLA flights to high-volume destinations in Florida. It should be noted that new flights to the U.S. from international destinations are subject to U.S. Department of Transportation approval in a process that takes considerable time. New routes discussed in this section are speculative. To produce a higher demand outlook, it was necessary to consider how NLA may be deployed to Florida beyond routes and plans that have currently been announced. Table V-5 below includes NLA orders currently booked by U.S. carriers. Only Continental, Northwest, and US Airways have placed orders for NLA at this time. It is anticipated that these aircraft will be placed into service primarily on international routes from each carrier’s international gateway hubs. None of these carriers has a significant number of international routes from Florida. While not entirely out of the question, it is unlikely that any of these currently ordered NLA will be placed into service in Florida. American and Delta, Florida’s dominant carriers, have not placed orders for NLA at this time. Due to their weak financial positions, the propensity for these carriers to secure NLA within the study period 2008 to 2018 is not high. Therefore, the focus of this effort to provide an outlook for high demand was placed on foreign-flag carriers. Table V-5 Current U.S. Carrier NLA Orders Airline Aircraft Orders AirTran Airways --- 0 Alaska Airlines --- 0 Allegiant Air --- 0 American Airlines --- 0 Continental Airlines B787 25 Delta Air Lines --- 0 Jet Blue Airlines --- 0 Midwest Airline --- 0 Northwest Airlines B787 18 Southwest Airlines --- 0 Spirit Air Lines --- 0 Sun Country Airlines --- 0 United Airlines --- 0 US Airways A350 22 USA 3000 Airlines --- 0 Totals B787/A350 43/22 Sources: Compiled by Wilbur Smith Associates from order information on the Airbus and, Boeing websites as of April 2008. Table V-6 shows foreign-flagged carriers that currently serve Florida that have placed NLA orders. While only Air France, British Airways, Lufthansa, and Virgin Atlantic have indicated they plan to use NLA to serve Florida, it is possible that any of the carriers shown in Table V-6 could employ NLA on routes to the state. Aeromexico, Icelandair, and Lan Chile represent potential candidate airlines for using NLA to serve Florida airports at some point in the future. FDOT Aviation Office V-9 Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task V: Activity Outlook Table V-6 Current Foreign-flagged Carrier NLA Orders Airline Aircraft Orders Airline Aircraft Orders Aerolineas Argentinas --- 0 Iberia Air Lines of Spain --- 0 Aeromexico B787 2 Icelandair B787 4 Aeropostal Alas De Venezuel --- 0 Lacsa --- 0 Aerovias Nac'l De Colombia --- 0 Lan Dominica --- 0 Air Canada B787 37 Lan Ecuador --- 0 Air Jamaica Limited --- 0 Lan Peru Airlines --- 0 Air Transat --- 0 Lan-Chile Airlines B787 10 Alitalia-Linee Aeree Italia --- 0 Lloyd Aereo Boliviano S. A. --- 0 Lufthansa German Bahamasair Holding Limited --- 0 B747-8/A380 20/15 Airlines B787/A38 Luftransport- British Airways Plc 24/12 --- 0 0 Unternehmen British West Indian Airways --- 0 Martinair Holland N.V. --- 0 Swiss International Cayman Airways Limited --- 0 --- 0 Airlines Compagnie Nat'l Air France A380 12 Taca Int'l Airlines --- 0 Compania Mexicana De Aviaci --- 0 Taca Peru --- 0 Transportes Aeros Compania Panamena (Copa) --- 0 --- 0 Meridiona Condor Flugdienst --- 0 TravelspanGT, Inc. S.A. --- 0 El Al Israel Airlines Ltd. --- 0 Virgin Atlantic Airways B787/A380 15/6 Globespan d/b/a Flyglobespan --- 0 Westjet --- 0 Sources: Compiled by Wilbur Smith Associates from order information on the Airbus and, Boeing websites as of April 2008. In addition, there are a number of airlines identified in the NLA Market Assessment section this report that will be within non-stop range of cities in Florida once they take delivery of their NLA. These carriers are identified in Table V-7 (shown on the following page). The carriers shown in Table V-7 represent additional NLA operators who could potentially initiate service to Florida. Other carriers with significant NLA orders also were considered initially. For example, the airports from which Qantas and Singapore airlines, which have both ordered significant numbers of NLA, are out of range for non-stop service to Florida markets. Typically, foreign-flagged carriers introduce new service to the U.S. via the largest international gateways such as Chicago’s O’Hare International, Los Angeles International or New York’s JFK International. Second-tier international gateways typically include cities like Newark, San Francisco, and Washington DC. However, depending on market characteristics, additional gateways may become targets for new international service. It is possible that NLA could change the dynamics for new international service to and from the U.S. For example, Emirates’ third U.S. city was Houston. These flights provide non-stop service between two areas with high dependence on the oil industry. Because of business and other connections, Seattle is often a new gateway for Asian carriers. With its unique mix of leisure markets and international business character, Florida could see additional non-stop international service on NLA from areas previously out of reach by existing aircraft. FDOT Aviation Office V-10 Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task V: Activity Outlook Table V-7 Asian and Middle Eastern Airline NLA Orders 2005-2006 A350 A380 B787 Airline Hub Location Passenger Growth Orders Orders Orders Aeroflot Moscow, RU 8.0% 22 0 22 Air China Beijing, CH 15.0% 0 0 15 Air India* Mumbai, IN -2.4% 0 0 27 All Nippon Tokyo, JP 3.0% 0 0 50 China Eastern Shanghai, CH 38.0% 0 0 15 China Southern Guangzhou, CH 12.4% 0 5 10 Emirates Dubai, UAE 25.2% 70 58 0 Etihad Abu Dhabi, UAE 172.0% 0 4 0 Hainan Hainan, CH 17.3% 0 0 8 Jet Airways Mumbai, IN 28.5% 0 0 10 Korean Seoul, SK 6.4% 0 8 10 Qatar Doha, QT 34.4% 80 5 30 Note: *Air India merged with Indian Air in 2007 and is expected to place further NLA orders. Sources: Compiled by Wilbur Smith Associates from order information on the Airbus and, Boeing websites as of April 2008 and Airline Business “The Airline Industry Guide, 2007/08.” Aircraft order data current as of April 2008. A review of foreign-flagged carriers not currently offering service to Florida airports, but who have ordered NLA, was completed to identify future service opportunities. As discussed in other report sections, the NLA that will be entering the fleet have longer ranges than most current large aircraft. This allows for the potential of direct international flights to areas in Asia and the Middle East to and from Florida. Table V-8 summaries potential utilization of NLA by air carriers in those areas of the world to Florida. Table V-8 Potential NLA Daily Service Based on New International Service from Asia and Middle East Airline 2008-2013 2014-2018 Aeroflot 0 1 Air China 0 1 Air India* 0 1 All Nippon 1 1 China Eastern 0 0 China Southern 0 0 Emirates 1 2 to 3 Etihad 0 0 Hainan 0 0 Jet Airways 0 0 Korean 0 1 Qatar 0 1 to 2 Totals 2 8 to 10 Note: *Air India merged with Indian Air in 2007 and is expected to place further NLA orders. Sources: Wilbur Smith Associates, Analysis, June 2008. FDOT Aviation Office V-11 Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task V: Activity Outlook The basis for these projected new service offerings with NLA from markets in Asia and Middle East are provided below: 1. Aeroflot: The Moscow-based airline has ordered 44 NLA to augment its current fleet of 17 large aircraft. Its current destinations in North America are New York-JFK, Los Angeles International, Washington-Dulles, Toronto, and Havana. Its NLA orders consist of 22 A350s and 22 B787s. These aircraft are not expected to enter service until late in this study’s outlook period, after 2013. In later years, Florida might have one daily departure on this carrier. 2. Air China: Based in Beijing, China, Air China maintains a fleet of 53 large aircraft. This carrier has placed orders for 34 more large aircraft, including 15 B787s. The airline currently serves New York-JFK, Los Angeles, and San Francisco with B747 aircraft, and they serve Vancouver with A330 planes. This carrier has applied for and received approval for new service to Toronto and Washington-Dulles beginning in 2009. With aggressive aircraft acquisition plans, it is reasonable to expect this carrier may initiate service to Florida in the next ten years. Air China’s B787 aircraft are expected to enter service by 2013. At this time, it is anticipated that the airline could provide one daily departure from Florida. 3. Air India/Indian Air: The newly merged airline operates a hub at Mumbai, and this carrier now operates 22 large aircraft on its long-haul routes. This airline has orders for 50 new aircraft; including 27 B787s. Current North American destinations for this carrier include Chicago, Los Angeles, Newark, New York-JFK, and Toronto, with San Francisco and Vancouver flights starting in 2008. With such aggressive aircraft acquisition plans, Florida airports may see new service by this carrier using NLA within the next ten years. Initial service would likely consist of once-daily service, most likely in later years of the forecast period. 4. All-Nippon (ANA): ANA maintains a hub at Narita International in Tokyo; from this airport, this carrier operates 44 large aircraft on long-haul international routes. ANA operates other large aircraft on high-volume domestic and regional routes. ANA is the launch customer for the Boeing 787, with 50 orders in place, 20 of which will be employed internationally. In all, this airline has ordered 38 large aircraft for long-haul service. Its North American destinations now include Chicago, Los Angeles, New York-JFK, San Francisco, Washington-Dulles, and Honolulu. It would be reasonable to expect Florida service early in the forecast period, most likely with one daily arrival/departure between Florida and Tokyo. It is worth noting that ANA previously served Orlando and maintains a marketing agreement with Universal Studios Japan. 5. China Eastern: China Eastern operates a fleet of approximately 12 long-haul large aircraft from its hub in Shanghai, and this carrier has ordered 15 B787 to add to its international service. This airline currently serves Los Angeles, New York-JFK, and Vancouver in North America. This carrier is more than doubling its long-haul fleet. China Eastern is expected to expand its North American service, while at the same time it adds destinations in Europe, FDOT Aviation Office V-12 Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task V: Activity Outlook where it currently serves just four cities. The likelihood of China Eastern service to Florida in the next ten years is considered minimal. 6. China Southern: China Southern operates just six long-haul large aircraft from its hubs at Beijing and Guangzhou, but this carrier has placed orders for five A380s and ten B787s. Among North American cities, China Southern now serves only Los Angeles. However, its B787s are expected to be deployed to Detroit, Newark, and Vancouver in 2009. Like China Eastern, this airline is expected to expand all of its international offerings. Service to destinations in Florida is not considered likely in the near term, but could be a possibility beyond this study’s ten-year demand outlook period. 7. Emirates: Emirates is a rapidly expanding airline based in the United Arab Emirates; they have orders for 128 NLA. These planes will be used to augment this carrier’s 76 current and 45 on-order large aircraft. Current Emirates destinations in North American from its hub at Dubai include Houston, New York-JFK, and Toronto. This carrier plans to start new service to Los Angeles and San Francisco later in 2008. Its NLA orders include 58 A380s; the carrier expects to start receiving these aircraft in 2008. Emirates also has on order 70 A350s. The airline expects to receive these planes near the end of this study’s ten-year window for future demand. It would seem, with such aggressive worldwide expansion plans, that Florida service is likely by Emirates. Expectations include one daily Florida departure by 2013, increasing to two or three daily departures by 2018. 8. Etihad Airways: Based in Abu Dhabi, the capital of the United Arab Emirates, Etihad operates a small fleet of 13 large aircraft on its long-haul international routes. It has placed orders for four A380s, plus four other wide- body aircraft. Its current North American service is limited to New York-JFK and Toronto. With only four A380s currently ordered, it is expected Etihad will expand to other destinations in North American before Florida is added. Prospects of NLA activity in Florida by this airline are beyond the next ten years. 9. Hainan: Hainan operates a fleet of seven large aircraft from its base on the island of Hainan, which is a province of China; this carrier has ordered eight B787s to expand further its international offerings. Its first destination in the U.S. will be Seattle. This service is expected to start in late 2008. Additional North American service will be augmented by flights to Chicago and Newark. This new service is expected to start in 2009 when this airline expects deliveries of its B787s on order to begin. Hainan serves only two European destinations, Brussels and Budapest. Its further expansion in the U.S. is expected to be modest as it expands to other worldwide first. Prospects of international service on Hainan to and from Florida are long-term, beyond the forecast period for this analysis. 10. Jet Airways: From its hub at Mumbai, India, Jet Airways serves the North American cities of New York-JFK, Newark, and Toronto. This carrier will also start service to San Francisco later in 2008. This carrier operates 18 large aircraft and has placed orders for 10 B787s. Jet Airways’ offerings in Europe are limited to three cities. It is expected to use its B787 aircraft to provide FDOT Aviation Office V-13 Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task V: Activity Outlook service to a variety of destinations in both Europe and North America. As a result, non-stop service to Florida on this airline is not expected during the forecast period. 11. Korean Air Lines: This air carrier serves one of the larger assortments of North American destinations among all foreign-flag carriers. Currently, they serve 15 cities, including Atlanta, Dallas, and Las Vegas and Los Angeles. This airline operates a fleet of 42 long-haul large aircraft. They have orders for eight A380s and ten B787s. These NLA are expected to replace older aircraft in Korean’s fleet, but with the increased range provided by NLA, destinations in Florida could be reached. The airline’s NLA are expected to enter service between 2009 and 2010. With this delivery schedule, an expectation of one daily Florida departure in the second half of the forecast period seems reasonable. It is worth noting that Korean operates a twice- weekly Boeing 747 freighter to Miami at present. 12. Qatar Airways: Qatar Airways now operates flights to Newark and Washington-Dulles, and they are adding service to Houston later in 2008. These flights are non-stop to the airline’s hub at Doha, Qatar, where this carrier maintains a fleet of 23 large aircraft. This carrier is aggressively expanding; it has placed orders for 125 NLA and an additional 38 wide-body aircraft. While the majority of these aircraft are expected to be delivered late in the forecast period, with such a massive expansion plans, it is reasonable to expect one or two daily flights to/from Florida by this carrier sometime after 2013. Given known NLA service plans and an expectation of future flights by airlines with NLA acquisition strategies, a high range for NLA activity during the forecast period was estimated. The high demand outlook estimates seven daily NLA departures by 2013, increasing to 17 daily departures by 2018. This demand outlook compares to 11 daily departures at present on current large aircraft. In terms of weekly departures, this high demand outlook equates to 49 operations by NLA per week by 2013 increasing to 119 by 2018. This activity is in comparison to 724 weekly departures by all domestic and foreign-flagged carriers currently using large commercial aircraft at present to serve Florida. High Demand NLA Outlook 2013 Daily Departures: 7 2018 Daily Departures: 17 Other Demand Considerations Air cargo companies Atlas/Polar and Korean now operate at Miami International Airport on a regular basis, and both carriers have placed orders for freighter variants of the B747-8. While neither have announced deployment plans for these aircraft, it is reasonable to expect additional NLA frequencies for Miami, once per day on these airlines. FDOT Aviation Office V-14 Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task V: Activity Outlook Orlando Sanford is served by a variety of foreign-flagged and domestic charter and scheduled airlines whose business models typically favor secondary airports. These airlines often employ older aircraft to reduce capital costs, and thus may not be as likely to add NLA to their fleets during the forecast period. Orlando Sanford is prepared to add improvements to accommodate NLA. One airline operating at Sanford, Icelandair, has ordered four B787 aircraft. However, Icelandair NLA service at Sanford may not occur within the next 10 years. A second current operator at Orlando Sanford, First Choice Airways, has orders for 11 B787 aircraft. First Choice is a subsidiary of TUI A.G., which is a travel conglomerate offering services in Germany and the United Kingdom. First Choice is based in the UK, operates to Orlando Sanford once per week, and has marketing agreements with the Disney company. The 11 B787s will replace its current fleet of six B767-300ERs, and are scheduled for delivery between 2010 and 2012. Since only its current B767-300ERs can reach Orlando, and since it maintains a strong relationship with Disney, there is a very high probability of continuing service to SFB through the period with B787s as the B767-300ERs are retired later in the forecast period, after 2013. At this time, there is no information that would suggest First Choice would significantly expand the schedule from once-weekly service since they will still probably serve their other long-haul destinations and others with their 12 aircraft. NLA Activity Outlook Summary Table V-9 summarizes the demand scenarios for NLA activity in Florida, equivalent annual NLA operations, and Florida’s share of the anticipated NLA fleet shown previously in Table V-4. For comparison purposes, all of Florida’s large aircraft at present, both domestic and international, make up 2.46 percent of the worldwide fleet. As Table V-9 indicates, the high demand outlook prepared for this report shows Florida’s share of the NLA fleet at less than 1 percent over the next ten years. Table V-9 NLA Outlook Summary of Scenarios Annual Percent of NLA Daily Departures Operations Fleet Scenario 2013 2018 2013 2018 2013 2018 Low 2 5 1,460 3,650 0.25% 0.22% Moderate 4 7 2,920 5,110 0.51% 0.31% High 7 17 5,110 12,410 0.89% 0.76% Source: Wilbur Smith Associates, Analysis, June 2008. A380 Utilization Of special interest to facility planners at airports in Florida are the prospects of Airbus A380 service in the state in coming years, as the size of the aircraft often necessitates facility enhancements. As noted in the Low NLA Activity Outlook section above, a number of carriers have announced plans to deploy A380 aircraft on routes to Florida. Specifically, Air France expects to deploy A380 service to Miami two to three times per week by 2013 and four to seven times per week by 2018. Similarly, Lufthansa expects in introduce A380 flights to Frankfurt or Munich two to three times per week by 2013 and four to seven times per FDOT Aviation Office V-15 Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task V: Activity Outlook week by 2018. Finally, Virgin Atlantic expects to deploy A380 aircraft to both Miami and Orlando, but has not identified a frequency. Given annual load factors on these flights, it is reasonable to expect similar equivalent frequencies on these routes. Other carriers noted in the High NLA Activity Outlook section have been identified as having placed orders for A380s, however, given the passenger load required to make A380 operations economical, it is expected that these carriers will deploy smaller NLA at first until the market for such service matures. Therefore, it is not expected that A380 flights outside of those already announced will commence during the next ten years. A380 Utilization Outlook 2013 Weekly Departures: 8 to 12 2018 Weekly Departures: 16 to 28 Combined, then, Florida’s airports may expect 8 to 12 A380 flights per week by 2013 and 16 to 28 flights per week by A380s in 2018. This equates to roughly 1 to 2 A380 daily flights by 2013 and 2 to 4 daily flights by 2018. NLA Summary Remarks While predicting exact NLA activity for Florida is an inherently imprecise endeavor, one issue is certain with regard to Florida: given the state’s tourism and business character, enough demand exists to support NLA flights from emerging markets worldwide. As such, it is a relative certainty that Florida’s airports will accommodate a growing share of the world’s fleet of NLA. VLJ Outlook This section provides information that allows airports in Florida to have a general understanding of various ranges for Very Light Jet (VLJ) activity that may be experienced in the state over the next ten years (2008 to 2018). To provide an outlook for VLJ aircraft in Florida, the following approach was used: 1. Industry, manufacturer, and government projections for VLJ production were assembled and reviewed. 2. A range of projections was identified and the factors driving the various projections summarized. 3. Steps were taken to estimate the portion of projected VLJ deliveries that may be realized in the U.S. 4. A Florida market share of total VLJ aircraft in the U.S. was estimated. 5. Estimates on hours flown and flights per VLJ were reviewed to establish ranges for estimated VLJ operations in Florida. Summary of Existing Projections A number of industry-wide projections for VLJ aircraft have been developed. This section provides information on several of these projections. Most VLJ forecast were reviewed and summarized in a report published by the United States Government Accountability Office FDOT Aviation Office V-16 Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task V: Activity Outlook (GAO); this report was presented to Congress in August 2007. This section, addressing an outlook for VLJ aircraft in Florida, uses work contained in the GAO report, Very Light Jets (GAO-07-1001). Before diving into the outlook, it is important to provide some context for the VLJ projections reviewed in this section. The very first VLJ aircraft was certified for flight by the FAA in 2006. The delivery of the very first VLJ took place a little more than one year ago in March of 2007. DayJet flew its first VLJ operation in October of 2007. Consequently, VLJ aircraft and their operations are both in their infancy. Trends related to VLJ aircraft and their owners and operators are emerging and changing as this report is being prepared. Therefore, Florida’s outlook for VLJ aircraft is subject to change. As this segment of the general aviation aircraft fleet matures, it will be incumbent upon airports in Florida to consider VLJs when they undertake master plan or airport layout plan updates. GAO Report GAO-07-1001: Very Light Jets A GAO report to Congress in August 2007 provides a summary of a wide variety of previously developed projections for the delivery of VLJs. Figure V-4 (included on following page), taken from the GAO report, provides a summary of these existing VLJ projections. Projections shown in this exhibit were developed by a variety of industry, government, and private sector authors. A considerable amount of research was undertaken to support these projections. The projections summarized in Figure V-4 reflect the fact that VLJ technology is emerging; therefore, there is an inherent degree of uncertainty related to the outlook for the number of VLJs that will enter the U.S. operating fleet. The projections summarized in Figure V-4 have three different forecast horizons: 2016, 2020, or 2025, depending on the source of the projection. Most projections summarized in Figure V-4 provide anticipated demand for VLJs that extends out to 2016, a ten-year outlook since almost of these projections were developed in 2006 when the first VLJ was certified. Depending on the projection, the number of VLJs is forecast to increase to between 3,016 and 7,649. These projections could be reached as early as 2016 or as late as 2025. The range of projections summarized in Figure V-4 represents vast differences. Undoubtedly, these significant differences are due largely to the newness of VLJ technology. The range of projections for VLJ aircraft in the coming years underscores the need for the airports in Florida to monitor VLJ development and to consider VLJ aircraft in their individual planning efforts. FDOT Aviation Office V-17 Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task V: Activity Outlook Figure V-4 VLJ Forecast Comparison from GAO Report GAO-07-1001 Forecast Organization Forecast (Description) End Year Number of Forecast Very Light Jet Deliveries 2016 (without air 5 taxi demand) 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 Embraer (aircraft manufacturer) 2016 (with air 5 taxi demand) 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 Forecast 5 International 2016 (aerospace consulting 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 firm) Honeywell 5 (manufacturer of 2016 aerospace products 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 and services) 5 PMI Media 7 (aerospace and 2016 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 defense publisher) 5 Teal Group 7 (aerospace 2016 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 consulting firm) 2016 (with 5 moderate growth 7 Stanford 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 Transportation Group in the air taxi (formerly Velocity industry) Group) (aviation consulting 5 and communications 2016 (with strong 7 firm) growth in the air 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 taxi industry) 5 FAA 76250 2020 (federal agency) 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 Rolls-Royce 5 (aerospace power 76250 2025 systems and service 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 provider) Source: U.S. GAO, “Very Light Jets”, Report No. GAO-07-1011, August 2007, page 13. FDOT Aviation Office V-18 Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task V: Activity Outlook Factors Influencing VLJ Growth The wide variation in VLJ projections shown in Figure V-4 are a result of differences in underlying assumptions for each of the projections. It is important to note that an underlying assumption for all projections summarized in Figure V-4 was moderate to strong economic growth in the U.S. Some argue that the U.S. economy is now in recession, or if not in an actual recession, certainly in a pronounced slow down. The nation’s economy over the past 12 months may not support the higher end projections summarized in Figure V-4. While many assumptions support the previously developed projections for the delivery of VLJs, key factors driving the differences in these projections are summarized as follows: • degree to which VLJs are used to provide air taxi or on-demand service • general health of the U.S. economy and economic growth • strength of the dollar and the gross domestic product • corporate growth/profits which influence aircraft ownership • limited inventory of traditional business jets • constraints to VLJ production, including capital and delays in certification • insurance, training, and maintenance requirements • extent to which VLJs are replacements for existing aircraft versus being aircraft which additive to the operational fleet • dissatisfaction with other modes of travel • lower costs to own and operate VLJs than traditional entry-level business jets • ability to have access to a larger cadre of airports throughout the U.S. Among all the factors noted above, how VLJs are used to provide air taxi service has the most potential to influence future demand for these aircraft. There are several operators who are either using or who plan to use VLJ aircraft (according to published reports) to provide air taxi or on-demand per seat service using VLJs. These operators have placed a large percentage of the orders for VLJs. Some of these operators have already started service, some have started and suspended service, and others are revising their business models. Included in the list of operators who may use VLJ aircraft are: • DayJet • POGO • EarthJet • Point2Point • Imagine Air • SATSAir • JetSet Inc. • TaxiJet • Linear Air • Yellow Air Taxi • Magnum Jet In addition to the U.S. operators shown above who have announced plans to use VLJ aircraft for air taxi service, there are an estimated 15 air taxi operators in Europe who also have plans to use VLJs to provide service. Other operators in India, China, Latin America, and the Middle East are just beginning to consider acquiring and operating VLJs. FDOT Aviation Office V-19 Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task V: Activity Outlook Currently, the majority of VLJs are manufactured in the U.S. Of the total number of VLJs shown in most of the projections summarized in Figure V-4, some portion of those planes will be shipped out of the U.S. Currently, approximately 70 percent of all VLJs manufactured will be delivered to customers in the U.S. However, according to Gulfstream, a leading manufacturer of traditional business jets, they expect their jet customers from the rest of the world will soon out number U.S. customers. Historically, aircraft manufacturing in the U.S. has been driven almost exclusively by the condition of the U.S. economy. However, with new international customers, even if the U.S. economy suffers, demand for VLJ aircraft may not be adversely impacted if foreign demand stays strong. This changing dynamic makes it challenging to predict, with a high level of confidence, the number of VLJs that will remain in the U.S. and operate in Florida. The low value of the dollar, along with booming foreign economies, could contribute to this change. The importance of the air taxi market on demand for VLJ aircraft can be seen by reviewing aircraft on order. For the Eclipse 500, over 60 percent of their customer base is in the air taxi market. For the Adam A700, recently out of bankruptcy, 80 percent of their customer base is related to air taxi operators. An estimated 50 percent of the customers for the Embraer Phenom 100 are also air taxi operators. Clearly, the success of the VLJ as a tool for air taxi operators is critical to the immediate success of this aircraft type. It is important to note that while projections for VLJ deliveries did consider the general state of the U.S. economy; available projections most likely did not appropriately reflect the impact of escalating fuel costs on VLJ demand and operations. In 2006, the approximate cost per gallon for JetA fuel was around $3.50. As of the writing of this report, the price of Jet A fuel per gallon stood at near $6.00, with some airports already exceeding $7.00 per gallon. There are no signs that fuel costs will decrease. As PMI Media Limited indicates in their VLJ forecast, the VLJ industry is particularly vulnerable to shocks from safety, environmental pressures, infrastructure restrictions, and hikes in fuel prices. Specific to Florida, the impact of rising fuel costs may already be impacting VLJ activity. Early in May 2008, DayJet announced they would layoff some employees. The exact number of layoffs was not announced. DayJet has taken delivery of 28 Eclipse 500 VLJs and has opened 12 DayPorts. The chair of DayJet indicated that for the company to grow to the critical mass needed for it to be profitable, 50 aircraft and 30 DayPorts are needed. To meet these targets, DayJet announced that it needs an estimated $40 million. It is worth noting that the lack of funding from capital markets, and not the cost of fuel, was cited as the reason for DayJet’s position. When the company’s original model and business plan were developed, customer service was based on a cost of $1 to $3 per seat mile. Rising fuel prices have no doubt caused this operator and others to re-consider their customer charges. The anticipated rising costs to use VLJ on-demand service may suppress demand. The cost to fly on a VLJ, relative to a traditional business jet, is still lower. Information from the website of another on-demand operator, POGO who also uses the Eclipse 500 VLJ, provides comparative cost data. POGO provides service to airports within a 500 to 600 mile stage length of New York City. Their market area does not include Florida. According to the FDOT Aviation Office V-20 Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task V: Activity Outlook POGO website, the cost of flying a 600 mile, two hour trip using POGO air taxi service is approximately $7,400 for the plane. POGO’s reported per seat costs are in the $6 to $7 range. The cost to fly the same trip on a traditional business/corporate jet air taxi provider is approximately $9,800, almost 25 percent more. Price increases for fuel affect all aircraft types. With their composite material construction and more fuel-efficient engines, however, VLJs may gain more of an edge in the general aviation market as a replacement aircraft for more traditional business jets. Uses for VLJs The FAA divides general aviation into the following use categories: 1) air taxi, 2) business, 3) corporate, 4) instructional, 5) personal and 6) other. Fractional ownership of jet aircraft has been one factor contributing to increased business and corporate use of general aviation jets. According to the total percent of hours flown on an annual basis, Table V-10 shows use categories for general aviation planes. There are roughly, 224,500 general aviation aircraft in the U.S. Of this total, almost 10,000 are turbojets. This is the category of general aviation aircraft in which VLJs are included. This information is worthwhile because it helps to provide context for VLJ aircraft relative to the entire fleet of general aviation aircraft that operate in the U.S. Table V-10 VLJ Utilization in 2005 as Reported by GAO Report GAO-07-1001 Percentage of Total General Aviation Flight Use Hours in 2005 Description On-demand passengers and Air Taxi 10.6 all cargo operations Use of aircraft in connection Business 12 with pilot's occupation or private business Use of aircraft owned or leased by a corporation or Corporate 11.4 business and flown by a professional pilot Flying under the supervision of Instructional 13.5 a flight instructor Use of aircraft for pleasure or Personal 34.3 personal transportation and not for business Examples include: Federal, state, or local government Other uses 17.9 owned or leased aircraft used for a government function Total 100 Source: U.S. GAO, “Very Light Jets”, Report No. GAO-07-1011, August 2007, page 10. VLJs will be used to support a variety of use categories. As previously noted, many of the projections shown in this section are influenced by the assumption that VLJs will be used to support higher volumes of air taxi operations. As shown in Table V-10, air taxi operations FDOT Aviation Office V-21 Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task V: Activity Outlook now make up an estimated 10.6 percent of all hours flown by general aviation aircraft in the U.S. even though they are only 4.5 percent of the active general aviation fleet. Assumptions that VLJs will be used to increase air taxi flying are in part tied to diminished levels of commercial airline service. As discussed in this report, service by commercial airlines between cities within Florida has eroded. While some of Florida’s major markets are still linked with non-stop commercial airline service, most are not. For example, the time to drive from Pensacola to Miami is over 11 hours; and yet, there is no non-stop airline service linking these two Florida markets. Distances between some cities in Florida seem to make the state a natural for air travel. Several different industry forecasts for VLJs provide information on the portion of nation’s travelers that may be candidates to use VLJ air taxi service. According to one of the publications reviewed, an estimated 40 million annual airline trips are flown by passengers who pay a full coach fare. Full coach fares translate into a seat mile cost to the passenger ranging from $0.25 to $0.35. Assuming that between 15 and 20 of these 40 million travelers would be willing to pay between $1 and $3 per seat mile for the added convenience of VLJ air taxi service, this could result in a total annual pool of an estimated 5.6 to 7.4 million passengers, travelers who could be served by air taxi operators using VLJ equipment. Estimates for this same pool of potential passengers for VLJ service prepared by Virginia Tech show the range of passenger demand being somewhat more conservative at 1 to 5.5 million passengers a year. Other information from operators who plan to provide air taxi service indicates that within the U.S. there are an estimated 197 million annual business trips that are over 300 miles long. An estimated 30 percent of these trips are taken using air travel. VLJ operators believe that attracting between 1.5 percent and 2.0 percent of the 197 million annual business trips is a reasonable target. This would result in annual passenger demand in the three to four million range. While some of these trips could be diverted from commercial airlines, a larger portion would be travelers now driving to their destinations. With shrinking commercial airline service, on-demand service provided by air taxi operators still appears to present a viable travel alternative. Some experts who have reviewed the air taxi models being proposed by VLJ operators argue that if point-to-point on-demand air taxi service were a viable form of instate or interstate transportation, existing aircraft in the general aviation fleet would already be used to provide this service. The long-term success and impact of VLJ air taxi service are still unknown at this time. As discussed in their most recent Aerospace Forecast, the FAA, however, expects that if VLJ operations have an impact on supplanting or backfilling commercial airline service, it will be at least 10 years until these impacts are observable. The Stanford Transportation Group (formerly Velocity Group) in its forecast draws an analogy between VLJ air taxi service and the start up of both Federal Express delivery service and fractional ownership of aircraft. While there was some initial acceptance of both of these “concepts”, it took some time before the concepts were fully embraced. Travel by FDOT Aviation Office V-22 Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task V: Activity Outlook VLJs represents a new way of doing business. The full acceptance of this new concept could take up to ten years, as anticipated by the FAA. VLJ forecast information provided by the Stanford Transportation Group (formerly Velocity Group) actually links potential passenger demand to the production of VLJ aircraft that could be needed to support the air taxi industry. As noted above, depending on the source, there could be as few as one million to as many as seven million passengers who may be potential customers for air taxi operators using VLJ aircraft. Numbers of VLJ aircraft needed to support varying levels of passenger demand, according to the Stanford Transportation Group (formerly The Velocity Group), are shown below in Table V-11. Table V-11 Potential VLJ Deliveries to Support Air Taxi Providers Annual Passenger Anticipated Number of VLJ Deliveries Demand Moderate High 4 million 1,952 3,547 6 million 2,929 5,320 7 million 3,163 5,747 Source: Stanford Transportation Group (formerly The Velocity Group), Prospects for Air Taxi Services in the United States, page 57. Continuing these same relationships, if the total passenger pool were only one million, as projected in one scenario by Virginia Tech, VLJ deliveries in the high scenario to support just air taxi demand would fall to 886 and to 488 in the low scenario. While air taxi operators are only one segment of demand for VLJ aircraft, it can quickly been seen that passenger demand for this type of travel will have a notable impact on the number of VLJs that may be produced. Pricing will ultimately play a large role in customer demand for VLJ air taxi service. Operator estimates show that if service could be priced at $1.50 per seat mile, passenger demand could approach seven million travelers. When cost per seat mile increases to $2.50, annual demand falls to 2.5 million. With costs per seat mile increasing to cover escalating fuel costs, passenger demand will almost certainly be dampened and the demand for VLJ aircraft could be directly impacted. Likely Ranges for VLJ Aircraft Production For this analysis, an outlook for VLJ aircraft was prepared for both the five-year period to 2013 and the ten-year horizon of 2018. To prepare this outlook, the following steps were taken: 1. Industry, manufacturer, government, and consultant projections presented in Figure V-4 were reviewed, along with their underlying assumptions. 2. Available production predictions from individual VLJ manufacturers were reviewed. 3. Available projections were either extrapolated or interpolated to match this study’s two outlook milestones of 2013 and 2018. FDOT Aviation Office V-23 Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task V: Activity Outlook Data from VLJ manufacturer’s on anticipated aircraft deliveries were then reviewed to estimate the number of aircraft that could be delivered to the market between now and 2013 and between 2013 and 2018. Most production data available for review indicates manufacturers expect to deliver roughly 50 percent of all aircraft they will produce between now and 2018 by the 2013 milestone. Based on the foregoing, various outlooks for VLJ aircraft production are presented in Table V-12. Each outlook for VLJ demand presented in this table was categorized as being in the low, moderate, or high range. Forecasted aircraft deliveries within each of these ranges were subsequently averaged to arrive at this study’s anticipated outlook for total deliveries of VLJs. Table V-12 Outlook for Anticipated Total VLJ Deliveries Outlook Range Forecast Forecast Source 2008-2013 2014-2018 2008-2018 Category Embraer: no air taxi 1,608 1,607 3,215 Low Embraer: with air 3,358 3,357 6,715 High taxi Forecast 3,392 3,391 6,783 High International Honeywell 2,700 2,700 5,400 Moderate PMI Media 4,257 4,256 8,513 High Teal Group 1,758 1,758 3,516 Low Stanford Transportation Group (formerly the 2,294 2,294 4,588 Moderate Velocity Group): moderate air taxi Stanford Transportation Group (formerly the 3,534 3,534 7,068 High Velocity Group): high air taxi) Manufacturers* 2,829 2,828 5,657 Moderate FAA 3,080 3,080 6,160 High Rolls Royce 2,450 2,450 4,900 Moderate Note: *Manufacturers projection presented in this table is based on individual projections for aircraft deliveries from Adam Aircraft, Cessna, Diamond, Eclipse, Embraer and Honda only. Sources: Compiled by Wilbur Smith Associates from the identified forecast source and as referenced in the bibliography, May 2008. Table V-13 provides the resultant low, moderate, and high outlooks for VLJ deliveries. Table V-13 Outlook Range for VLJ Deliveries: Worldwide Demand Range 2008-2013 2014-2018 2008-2018 Low 1,683 1,683 3,366 Moderate 2,568 2,568 5,136 High 3,524 3,524 7,048 Source: Refer to sources cited for Table V-12. FDOT Aviation Office V-24 Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task V: Activity Outlook As reflected in Table V-13, the difference between the high and low range for VLJ deliveries is almost double. This wide range speaks to the newness of the VLJ. Various reports indicate that the total number of VLJs now on order is in the range of 3,300 to 3,700 aircraft. It is also important to remember that not all VLJs shown in Table V-13 will be delivered to customers in the U.S. Current thinking, is that for the 2008 to 2013 period, 70 percent of the VLJs produced will be delivered within the U.S. By the 2014 to 2018 period, however, an estimated 50 percent of the VLJs produced could be shipped to foreign customers, up from 30 percent in the 2008 to 2013 period. Table V-14 reflects these assumptions. Table V-14 U.S. Versus Foreign Delivery of VLJs Delivery Demand Range Location 2008–2013 2014–2018 2008-2018 U.S. 1,177 842 2,019 Low Foreign 505 842 1,347 U.S. 1,798 1,284 3,082 Moderate Foreign 770 1,284 2,054 U.S. 2,467 1,762 4,229 High Foreign 1,057 1,762 2,819 Source: Refer to sources cited for Table V-12. It is important to note that the distribution of VLJ deliveries between the U.S. and rest of the world (Table V-14), is based on the best available data, and is subject to change. Assuming the reliability of projections developed by a number of industry experts and the assumed distribution of these anticipated VLJs between the U.S. and other customers around the world, the resultant outlook for total VLJs in the U.S. is shown in Table V-15. Table V-15 Outlook Range for VLJ Deliveries: U.S. Only Demand Range 2008–2013 2014–2018 2008-2018 Low 1,177 842 2,019 Moderate 1,798 1,284 3,082 High 2,467 1,762 4,229 Source: Refer to sources cited for Table V-12. As relationships between aircraft deliveries for air taxi operators and passenger demand developed by the Velocity Group indicate, total passenger demand in the U.S. in the four to five million range would be needed to support total VLJ production implied in these demand ranges. Based on analysis undertaken by Virginia Tech, models used by air taxi providers, and review undertaken by PMI Media, theoretically, there should be sufficient demand for VLJ air taxi travel to support the various outlooks for VLJ demand shown in Table V-15. It is also important to emphasize, that while air taxi operators are expected to be an important generator of demand for VLJ aircraft, owner/operators, businesses, and corporate customers will contribute to supporting demand for VLJ aircraft shown in Table V-15. Table V-16 provides information that shows the distribution by user type of the VLJs currently on order, as noted earlier estimated to be between 3,300 and 3,700 aircraft. FDOT Aviation Office V-25 Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task V: Activity Outlook Table V-16 VLJs on Order Percent by Customer Type Customer Type 2007 2011 2016 Owner/Operator 43% 45% 49% Air Taxi 48% 42% 32% Corporation 9% 13% 19% Source: PMI Media Limited. "A Critical Analysis of Trends, Challenges, and Solutions." The Very Light Jet (VLJ) Market 2007-2016 2nd ed. In (Butterworth- Hayes, P., Ed.). October 2007. While the information in Table V-16 does not match the outlook milestones for this analysis, it is possible to see that demand for VLJ aircraft by air taxi operators has and will have a major impact on number of VLJ aircraft that could enter the general aviation fleet. As shown in Table V-16, VLJ use by owner/operators and corporations is anticipated to increase as percent of the total application for VLJ aircraft. The business jet is a tool used in North America to increase business efficiency; according to the National Business Aircraft Association (NBAA), two-thirds of all business jets produced are operated in the U.S. The first general aviation business jets were delivered in the early 1960s. Currently, an estimated 40 percent of all business jets in operation in the U.S. are over 20 years old. Assuming the average business jet has a 25 to 30 life expectancy, much of the current business jet fleet in the U.S. is on a timeline to be replaced. The percentages shown in Table V-16 reflect the assumption that some portion of the turbojet/business jet fleet will be replaced by VLJs. VLJ Outlook for Florida Table V-15 provided an outlook for low, moderate, and high levels of VLJ aircraft that could enter the U.S. fleet between now and 2018. The next step was to estimate the portion of VLJ aircraft that could operate in Florida. As previously noted, VLJ aircraft are classified at turbojet aircraft in the general aviation fleet. Currently, the U.S. operating fleet has about 10,000 total aircraft classified in the turbojet category. FAA records as of December 2007 show that approximately 1,000 of these planes (10 percent) are based at airports in Florida. It is quite likely that Florida’s share of the VLJ market in the U.S. will exceed 10 percent. Research presented in the VLJ forecast prepared by the Stanford Transportation Group (formerly Velocity Group) examined states in the U.S. for their propensity to attract and support on-demand air taxi service provided by VLJ aircraft. Each state’s propensity was determined in part by the ability of passengers to travel on short-haul scheduled commercial airline flights. From the analysis presented in the Stanford Transportation Group (formerly Velocity Group) report, Georgia and Florida were ranked as the states with the greatest potential to support air taxi service with VLJ aircraft. Florida’s geography, major population and business centers, growing highway congestion, and volumes of high-end vacationers and second homeowners all support the notion of higher than average VLJ usage. FDOT Aviation Office V-26 Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task V: Activity Outlook At a minimum, it is likely that 10 percent of the VLJ units delivered in the U.S. between now and 2018 will be associated with Florida. This market share is the same as Florida’s current market share for the general aviation fleet of turbojet aircraft in the U.S. Given that DayJet has based it operations in Florida and that SATSAir is already serving cities in northern Florida, a market share of 10 percent has been established as the lower bound estimate. A moderate estimate sees Florida’s market share of VLJ aircraft increasing to 15 percent, and on the high end, as many as 20 percent of the VLJ aircraft delivered to customers in the U.S. could be Florida bound. These estimated market shares were applied to the previously developed low, moderate, and high ranges of VLJs for the U.S. (Table V-15) to develop a corresponding VLJ outlook for Florida. Table V-17 provides various outlooks for VLJ aircraft in Florida that reflect the low, moderate, and high ranges of VLJ deliveries in the U.S. and the various Florida market shares noted in this discussion by the milestone study years of 2013 and 2018. Table V-17 Range of Total VLJ Aircraft in Florida VLJs 2013 2018 Low Total U.S. 1,177 2,019 10% 117 201 15% 176 302 20% 235 403 Moderate Total U.S. 1,798 3,082 10% 180 308 15% 270 462 20% 360 616 High Total U.S. 2,467 4,229 10% 246 422 15% 370 634 20% 493 845 Source: Wilbur Smith Associates, Analysis, May 2008. To put the numbers into perspective, as of the writing of this report, DayJet has around 30 VLJs operating from their bases located at Florida airports. The number of VLJs delivered to owner/operators and/or corporations in Florida is not available or known. As shown in Table V-17, over the next ten years, Florida might expect a wide range of VLJ activity. On the lowest end of the expected demand range, Florida could expect about 200 VLJ aircraft. On the high end, Florida could anticipate almost 850 VLJ aircraft. For the higher end outlook of 850 VLJs to be achieved, air taxi models, such as those being operated by DayJet, will need to succeed. If air taxi applications for the VLJ aircraft are not successful, VLJ demand in the lower ranges could be more likely. Planes not operated by air taxi companies would be flown by owner/operators and corporations. In any of the demand outlooks shown in Table V-17, it is important to note that not all of these VLJs will be additive to the estimated 1,000 turbojets that are now in Florida. At least some portion of the VLJs destined for Florida would be replacements for current business jets, as they outlive their useful operating lives. This analysis did not attempt to estimate an anticipated replacement rate. FDOT Aviation Office V-27 Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task V: Activity Outlook Outlook for VLJ Operations in Florida The FAA anticipates that the rate at which VLJ aircraft will be flown will be influenced by their category of use. The FAA does not project actual landings and take-offs by use category, but they do provide estimates for hours flown by use category. In their most recent national aerospace forecast, FAA indicates that general aviation aircraft flown by VLJ air taxi operators will average about 1,500 hours annually, and VLJs flown by others will average around 1,200 hours of flight annually. Information from operators such as POGO, SATSAir, and DayJet indicates that they expect to fly their planes somewhere in the neighborhood of 2,000 hours each per year. Table V-10 in this section provided information on current use by type for all general aviation planes; air taxi use currently makes up an estimated 10.6 (rounded to 11 percent) percent of all operations. Table V-16 showed that in the near term, an estimated 48 percent of all VLJs delivered will be devoted to providing air taxi service. Within the next 10 years, however, this percentage will fall to 32 percent, as more use of VLJs by corporations and owner/operators is experienced. Information on hours flown by VLJs and estimated percentages of air taxi use, both discussed in the two preceding paragraphs, were both used to develop an outlook for Florida’s estimated VLJ operations. Information on the various ranges of VLJ aircraft that Florida could experience, shown in Table V-17, was used in conjunction with assumptions on hours flown by VLJs that would be flown for air taxi and other purposes and the percent of VLJs that would be employed to provide air taxi service to develop these estimates. Ranges of operations within the low, moderate, and high outlooks are again shown in Table V-18 (refer to the following page) for the milestone years of 2013 and 2018. To limit the number of potential operational outlooks for VLJ aircraft presented in Table V-18, the average number of VLJ aircraft for Florida in each of the outlooks presented in Table V-17 was used to develop the Florida specific operational outlooks presented in Table V-18. As shown in Table V-18, under the average growth outlook for VLJs in Florida, total annual operations by VLJ aircraft could range from 259,620 to 668,850 by 2018. Table V-17 provided outlooks for VLJ aircraft in Florida that by 2018 could range from a low of 201 or a high of 845. These ranges produce a resultant range of total annual VLJ operations for Florida of 172,460 to 890,650 by 2018 (not reflected in Table V-18). This wide range of annual operational activity for VLJs in Florida is driven not only by the number of VLJ aircraft that could operate in the state, but also by how these aircraft may be used (air taxi versus other uses) and by the associated number of hours these planes could be flown. FDOT Aviation Office V-28 Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task V: Activity Outlook Table V-18 Range of VLJ Aircraft Operations for Florida VLJ Demand Range 2013 2018 Low Average Florida VLJs 176 302 11% air taxi usage 151,400 259,620 32% air taxi usage 170,480 292,480 48%air taxi usage 185,320 317,920 Moderate Average Florida VLJs 270 462 11% air taxi usage 231,900 396,630 32% air taxi usage 261,580 447,480 48% air taxi usage 284,900 487,260 High Average Florida VLJs 370 634 11% air taxi usage 317,730 544,300 32% air taxi usage 358,540 614,260 48% air taxi usage 390,340 668,850 Source: Wilbur Smith Associates, Analysis, May 2008. VLJ Outlook Summary As this section highlights, VLJs represent a new type of aircraft, just entering the market. Applications for these planes have yet to be fully tested; consequently, future demand for these planes is uncertain at this time. Further, VLJ aircraft are entering the market at a time of historically high jet fuel prices. The impact of higher fuel costs for VLJ aircraft has yet to be determined. As this section provides high, moderate, and low outlooks for all of the following: • total VLJ deliveries • VLJ deliveries in the U.S. • VLJs in Florida • annual VLJ operations in Florida There are a number of factors, which could, individually or in combination, determine actual demand for each of the indicators noted above. Factors noted below are those that may contribute to higher VLJ demand, as well as those that may contribute to lower demand for VLJ aircraft. 1. Factors that could boost demand for VLJs: a. Fuel Costs: While fuel costs may negatively affect business models for on-demand air taxi service, to be flown using VLJ aircraft, because these aircraft are much lighter, technologically advanced, and fuel efficient, as older traditional business jets are retired, the cost savings that VLJs provide over larger/traditional turbojets could have a positive impact on demand. FDOT Aviation Office V-29 Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task V: Activity Outlook b. Inventory of Traditional Business Jets: Delivery times for new traditional turbojets are some times extensive, and inventories for used business jets are often not very extensive. As result, some individuals, corporations, or businesses seeking to enter the general aviation market or to replace existing aircraft may choose VLJs, thereby increasing demand. c. Reductions in Commercial Airline Service: As airlines continue to reduce flights, especially short haul flights, air taxi service, including service provided by VLJs may become an effective alternative for shorter and more reliable air travel. Air taxi travel on VLJ aircraft, in comparison to airline service, may provide opportunities for improving on-time performance, arrivals which are closer to the passenger’s final travel destination, and flexible travel times. If air taxi service on VLJ aircraft proves successful, demand may increase. 2. Factors that could dampen demand for VLJs: a. Inspector/Certification Process: Several of the VLJ manufacturers have encountered program delays; these delays have pushed some manufacturers to the edge, with some going out of businesses. Further delays and/or increased costs could result in the production of fewer VLJ aircraft. b. Air Taxi Competition: As this section noted, there are a number of operators who are planning to use VLJs to provide on-demand service. In fact, some theorize that there may be too many air taxi operators competing for a limited market. If not all air taxi operators are successful, consolidation is inevitable which could dampen demand for VLJs. c. Insurance Costs: Underwriters indicate that they are often hesitant to provide insurance for first time aircraft manufacturers, and insurance costs for less experienced pilots flying VLJ aircraft are higher. Higher insurance costs could suppress VLJ demand. d. Escalating Costs: Costs for manufacturing VLJs is going to and has already increased, leading to a cut back on some of the potential customer base for these aircraft. e. Limited Maintenance and Training Facilities: Some industry experts believe that limited MRO and training facilities for VLJs may limit the market for VLJ sales. The factors noted above may all influence future VLJ demand. Where VLJs will operate in Florida will be influenced by airports that have: • Good ground transportation • Excellent customer support • High-end, solid, dependable, and pleasant FBOs • The availability of landing support facilities and NAVAIDs FDOT Aviation Office V-30 Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task V: Activity Outlook • Facilities which support crew and passenger handling • Destinations that are in proximity to centers of high demand • Clearly defined and affordable landing, handling, and service charges • An understanding of the culture of the VLJ customer Information provided in this section can be used by airports in Florida and FDOT to shape future planning for airports in Florida as it relates to attracting and supporting VLJ aircraft. Summary and Conclusions This section used a non-traditional approach to provide activity outlooks for NLA and VLJ activity in Florida. From this review, the following can be concluded about: 1. NLA Activity: a. While commercial airports in Florida have a high level of activity, their portion of international service is not currently as extensive as other international gateway airports in the U.S. This lowers the propensity for foreign airlines (not currently providing service to airports in Florida) that have NLA on order to use these planes in Florida in the next five years. b. Two commercial airports in Florida have existing carriers who have announced they will use NLA to serve each airport. These airports are Orlando International and Miami International. c. The non-stop capabilities of NLA will open up new international markets for Florida. As initial deliveries and commitments for NLA are fulfilled, it will become more likely that beyond a five-year window, additional foreign carriers may use NLA to provide service to airports in Florida. d. Over the next ten years, NLA that are produced will be used to serve high demand destinations around the world. It appears that around one percent of the NLA fleet may be deployed on routes to airports in Florida. This compares to over two percent of current large commercial aircraft that serve Florida; a notable portion of the current large aircraft that serves Florida are used on domestic routes. In the near term, NLA service to Florida on domestic routes does not appear to be imminent. 2. VLJ Activity a. A variety of projections have been previously prepared for VLJ deliveries; by 2018, these existing projections range from approximately 3,200 to 8,500 VLJ aircraft that could be delivered worldwide. b. How successful air taxi activity utilizing VLJ aircraft will largely determine how many VLJs are produced. c. Initially, the buyers for VLJs will be focused in the U.S.; but as the market matures, at least 50 percent of the VLJs manufactured may be delivered to customers in other countries. FDOT Aviation Office V-31 Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task V: Activity Outlook d. Currently, according to FAA records, about 10 percent of all turbojet aircraft, the classification category for VLJs, are based in Florida. The total number of VLJs that will be in Florida will be influenced by many factors, but this analysis indicates that by 2018 the number of VLJs in Florida may be between 201 on the low end and 845 on the high end. e. There could be an even wider range for the number of VLJ operations experienced by airports in Florida by 2018. On the low end, annual VLJ operations could approach 172,500, whereas, on the high end, VLJ operations may reach 890,650. The number of VLJs operating in Florida will drive this number as will the purpose for which the VLJ is flown. Success of VLJ utilization by air taxi operators would contribute to reach the higher demand range. As noted, the next few years, if not months, additional information will become available to help further illuminate the impact of NLA and VLJ activity in Florida. It will be especially important for airport owners and operators in Florida to monitor trends for new planes by aircraft category. Information from this report as well as information on Next Generation Aircraft that continues to become available should be considered as appropriate in each airport’s future planning and development efforts. FDOT Aviation Office V-32 Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task V: Activity Outlook Bibliography AVweb. DayJet Announces Layoffs. AVweb: World's Premier Independent Aviation News Resource. Retrieved May 6, 2008, from http://www.avweb.com/avwebbiz/news/BizAv_DayJet_Layoffs_197792-1.html Embraer. Propriety Market Analysis (used with Embraer permission). April 2008. Federal Aviation Administration. Aerospace Forecasts: FY 2008-2025. February 2008. Federal Aviation Administration. Aerospace Forecasts: FY 2007-2020. February 2007. Forecast International. Civil Aircraft Forecast. April 2008. flypogo.com. Retrieved April 2008, from http://www.flypogo.com/index.html Honeywell. 16th Annual Business Outlook. September 2007. PMI Media Limited. "A Critical Analysis of Trends, Challenges, and Solutions." The Very Light Jet (VLJ) Market 2007-2016 2nd ed. In (Butterworth-Hayes, P., Ed.). October 2007. Rolls Royce. Market Outlook. March 2008. Teal Group. World Military and Civil Aircraft Briefing. March 2008. The Velocity Group (now Stanford Transportation Group). Prospects for Air Taxi Services in the United States-Final Report. October 16, 2006. United States Government Accountability Office. Very Light Jets: Several Factors Could Limit Their Effect on the National Airspace System. Report to Congressional Requesters. August 2007. FDOT Aviation Office V-33 Task 6 Economic Impact Assessment Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task VI: Economic Impact Introduction The introduction of Next Generation Aircraft is expected to result in a number of economic benefits for Florida. In the near term, New Large Aircraft (NLA) are expected to serve major airports in Orlando, Miami and Tampa. In the coming years, NLA may operate at other commercial airports in Florida. Anticipated operations by NLA prompted some commercial airports to undertake improvement projects to accommodate the more rigorous operational needs of these planes. Next Generation Aircraft are expected to have positive economic impacts for Florida, and these impacts will extend beyond just the major international airports. The Very Light Jet (VLJ) is expected to bring other economic benefits to smaller commercial service airports and some general aviation airports in Florida. Service centers for VLJs have opened in Boca Raton and Gainesville. DayJet, an on-demand air taxi service, commenced operations with VLJs in October 2007. So far, DayJet has carried passengers to more than 50 of Florida’s over 120 public-use airports. Other air taxi and charter companies are expected to make use of VLJs to serve Florida in coming years. In addition, two VLJs models, the Embraer Phenom and the Piper PiperJet, will be manufactured in Florida. This section of the study discusses and estimates the economic benefits associated with Next Generation Aircraft operations. Benefits are reviewed separately for NLA and VLJs. Using standard economic impact analysis methods, the average annual benefits of NLA and VLJ activity are estimated in this section. Each Next Generation Aircraft category was addressed separately because how these aircraft will be deployed to serve airports in Florida required a different set of assumptions. In developing this economic analysis, it was assumed that Florida’s economic benefits from NLA stem from capital improvements needed to accommodate the larger aircraft and from an incremental increase in international visitors brought to Florida by these new aircraft. For this analysis, it was assumed that most passengers on NLA, but not all, would have traveled to Florida by some other means in the absence of NLA. In this analysis, it was assumed that NLA operations would stimulate a small percentage increase in visitor demand that otherwise would not have occurred. NLA will make it possible for international visitors to reach Florida from areas around the world where at least one, if not two, intermediate stops were previously needed. This increased convenience from non-stop service will stimulate some latent demand, once service is operational. FDOT Aviation Office VI-1 Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task VI: Economic Impact The economic benefits of VLJs were assumed to be the result of a combination of the following: • Infrastructure improvements at the airports where VLJs were expected to be most frequently used and maintained • Increases in the provision of aviation services at businesses that cater to VLJs (mostly fuel sales and maintenance, but also flight training) • Rises in employment, investment and other activities at businesses that manufacture and use VLJs in Florida Economic Impact Model All economic impacts or benefits from NLA and VLJs considered in this analysis were calculated using an input-output model. The input-output model considers three impact categories to assess economic benefits associated with activities triggered by Next Generation Aircraft. Impact categories used in this report are: 1. First-round Impacts: First-round benefits include the employment, payroll and output related to new companies and activities associated with Next Generation Aircraft. These include the benefits derived from capital projects that are the result of Next Generation Aircraft operations, as well as new business supported by Next Generation Aircraft. First round impacts are often also referred to as direct and indirect impacts. 2. Second-round Impacts: Second-round impacts primarily consist of induced impacts, which result from recirculation of first-round impacts within the economy. Recirculation of first-round impacts is frequently referred to as the multiplier effect. For example, as air taxi employees spend their salary for housing, food, or services, that spending circulates through the economy and leads to increases in associated spending, payroll and employment in Florida. For each wave of spending beyond the first-round, a portion of the re- spending takes place outside the economy being modeled, in this case, the state of Florida. Employment, payroll and spending that take place outside Florida is considered economic leakage and is, therefore, not measured. Economic data obtained from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is specific to the state of Florida and reflects the level of economic leakage experienced by the state in the industries analyzed. 3. Total Impacts: Total impacts or benefits are the sum of all first-round and second-round economic activities (direct, indirect and induced) associated with Next Generation Aircraft. Because second-round impacts are not as easily measured as first-round impacts, a reliable method for estimating second-round impacts must be employed. A leading method used to estimate second-round impacts is an input-output model. The Regional Input-Output Modeling System (RIMS II) model was used to measure the multiplier effect and to quantify second-round impacts. An input-output model, in its most basic form, is a linear model that estimates purchases and sales between various sectors of the economy. This modeling process is considered to be one of the leading methods available for estimating the total FDOT Aviation Office VI-2 Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task VI: Economic Impact economic impact of an industry (in this case, the impacts attributed to Next Generation Aircraft). The BEA initially developed the RIMS system in the 1970s. BEA updated the model in the 1980s, calling it RIMS II. It is now considered one of the standard methods for evaluating the economic contribution of public facilities. The RIMS II model contains a large economic database that is used to generate input-output tables. RIMS II multipliers and data tables specific to Florida’s industrial sectors were obtained and used in this analysis. The RIMS II input-output model used for this analysis requires impact estimates for three separate components of the economy. These categories are: 1. Employment: Employment is based on the total of full-time jobs plus part- time jobs. In this analysis, part-time positions are treated as one-half of a full- time position. 2. Payroll: Payroll represents the annual wages and benefits paid to all workers. 3. Output (Spending): Output for on-airport activities and aircraft manufacturing is assumed to be the sum of annual gross sales and average annual capital expenditures that are the result of operations by Next Generation Aircraft. For visitor trips flown on Next Generation Aircraft, output is assumed to equal passenger spending during their visit. It is important to note that payroll makes up one portion of output and the two cannot be combined because elements of economic benefit related to payroll are also contained, to some extent, in the output estimate. Each of the three impact components (employment, payroll and output) stands alone as a measure of economic impact. The impacts of Next Generation Aircraft were evaluated for three points in time: 1) past, 2) present and 3) future. Past impacts consist entirely of capital improvements at airports undertaken to prepare for NLA and VLJ operations. These impacts were averaged for the years in which these capital improvements occurred. Present economic benefits included all Next Generation Aircraft related benefits that occurred in 2007 and 2008. This included the benefits associated with DayJet and its start-up operations. The benefits associated with the future timeframe represent an annual average of anticipated Next Generation Aircraft activity through 2018. The three impact periods–past, present and future–were selected to illustrate the growth of the Next Generation Aircraft expected to occur over the next 10 years. For each of these periods, economic impacts presented in this task of the report are reflective of average annual impacts that might be realized during one year of that period. This approach shows the logical progression that the industry supporting these aircraft will likely undergo as these segments of the aviation industry transition from their initial development to a more robust and more mature industry. Because of the differences between NLA and VLJ use and operations, each segment was treated differently in estimating the economic benefits each provides to Florida. The methods and assumptions for those estimates are described in the following sections. FDOT Aviation Office VI-3 Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task VI: Economic Impact NLA Impacts The impacts of NLA were broken down into two categories. The first category addressed the airport infrastructure improvements, and the second category addressed the benefits from visiting passengers using NLA. Each category is explained in the following sections. Airport Capital Improvements Some of the economic benefits related to NLA include infrastructure improvements at selected commercial airports expected to accommodate these aircraft in Florida. These improvements consist generally of airfield projects to accommodate the larger physical dimensions of NLA and terminal improvements designed to enhance the efficiency of NLA operations and passenger movements. Airports in Florida were asked to provide information on capital improvement projects designed to accommodate NLA. Other sources of information, such as GAO reports and news articles, were reviewed to supplement the information the airports provided. For each project, information on the cost, time needed to complete and when the project was initiated was obtained. Estimates were made if the information was not made available. Table VI-1 shows capital improvement information for the four Florida airports that have or plan to undertake projects for NLA, along with the average amount spent annually on each project and in which period the project was conducted. Table VI-1 Airport Capital Improvement Projects for NLA Average Annual Capital Airport Project Cost Years Cost Period Orlando International Taxiway E & F $17,000,000 3 $5,666,667 Past Orlando International Taxiway E & F $17,000,000 3 $5,666,667 Present Orlando International Taxiway B $50,000,000 2 $25,000,000 Future Orlando International Taxiway E & F $17,000,000 3 $5,666,667 Future Orlando International Taxiway Bridge $1,500,000 1 $1,500,000 Future Orlando International Gate modifications $6,000,000 2 $3,000,000 Future Aircraft servicing Tampa International $400,000 6 $66,667 Future equipment Tampa International Jetways $5,000,000 6 $833,333 Future Tampa International Customs $18,400,000 11 $1,672,727 Future Miami International NLA gate $2,000,000 2 $1,000,000 Future Sources: Airport management surveys, April and May 2008, and Wilbur Smith Associates, Analysis, June 2008. These average annual capital costs were used to estimate the number of annual construction jobs created and the payroll associated with those jobs for each of the three periods: past, present and future. Based on information from the input-output model, on average, there are 7.6 construction jobs created for every $1 million worth of capital improvement infrastructure. The payroll for those construction jobs averages approximately $38,700 per year. Using these assumptions and the reported capital improvement costs shown in Table FDOT Aviation Office VI-4 Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task VI: Economic Impact VI-1, Table VI-2 shows past, present and future jobs, payroll and output from capital improvements associated with supporting NLA operations in Florida. Table VI-2 Annual First-round Impacts of Airport NLA Capital Improvements at Florida Airports Period Employment Payroll Output Past 43 $1,655,000 $5,667,000 Present 43 $1,655,000 $5,667,000 Future 293 $11,311,000 $38,739,000 Note: First-round annual impacts include only direct and indirect impacts. Source: Wilbur Smith Associates, Analysis, June 2008. New Visitor Passenger Spending Additional NLA economic impacts may also be associated with spending by new or additive visitors coming to Florida. In general, it was assumed that passengers traveling on NLA would not contribute new economic benefits to Florida that could be attributed solely to NLA. This is because these passengers could and most likely would travel to Florida on other commercial aircraft, if NLA were not available. For this analysis, a small increase in passengers coming to Florida from international locations was assumed because of new non- stop routes as discussed in the Activity Outlook section. The benefits derived from these additional visiting passengers are included in this analysis. NLA activity in 2018 as summarized in Table V-9 was selected as the basis for estimating new visitor passenger spending. The impact of new visitor passenger spending is shown in Table VI-3. Table VI-3 New Visitor Annual Spending Attributed to NLA Operations in Florida Avg. Seats Average Visitor Percent New Visitor Annual NLA per Load Spending per New Passenger Departures Aircraft factor Departure Visitors Output 6,205 307 80% $2,053 5% $156,327,000 Source: Wilbur Smith Associates, Analysis, June 2008. Spending associated with additive NLA visitors, shown in Table VI-3, was estimated as follows: 1. Information from the Activity Outlook of this report was used to develop an estimate for total annual future NLA activity in Florida. It is important to note that while some of these anticipated future NLA operations have been announced by foreign-flagged carriers, their plans may be altered regarding their current outlook for operations to Florida airports. This estimate from the Activity Outlook is based on known deliveries of NLA by airline, the current route structure for these carriers in North America, and potential for NLA to be flown to cities in Florida by the 2018 time frame. FDOT Aviation Office VI-5 Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task VI: Economic Impact 2. An average seating capacity for NLA serving Florida was estimated. While the A380 is expected to seat 490 passengers, the average seating capacity for all NLA that may serve Florida was estimated to be 307, based on higher utilization of non-A380 NLA. 3. To determine the total number of future passengers that could arrive in Florida on NLA, an estimated average load factor was established. 4. Information on spending in the U.S. by international visitors was obtained from other sources. These sources show that, on average, each international visitor to the U.S. spends $2,053 during their trip. 5. Not all passengers arriving at Florida airports on NLA will be visitors who will stay in Florida. Some passengers may be residents and others may travel to destinations beyond Florida. For this analysis, it was assumed that five percent of the future passengers who could arrive in Florida on NLA may be additive international visitors. Without more convenient non-stop service provided by NLA, these passengers would not have traveled to Florida. As Table VI-3 shows, new visitor passenger spending or output of more than $156 million annually could be realized. This spending would support jobs in the food, hospitality, entertainment, retail and tourism industries. Based on RIMS multipliers, every $1 million of visitor spending supports 17.1 jobs. According to Bureau of Labor Statistics, the average annual payroll for employees in these types of industries is $26,544. Table VI-4 shows the results of applying these ratios to the new visitor spending for the future economic impact scenario. There are no impacts from visitors for the past and present scenarios since there were no NLA operations during those periods. Table VI-4 Future Annual First-round Impacts of New Visitor Passengers from NLA in Florida New Visitor Passenger Period Output Jobs Payroll Past $0 0 $0 Present $0 0 $0 Future $156,327,000 2,670 $70,880,000 Note: First-round impacts include only direct and indirect impacts. Sources: US BEA, RIMS II multipliers, June 2008, and Wilbur Smith Associates, Analysis, June 2008. All of the first-round impacts associated with NLA are shown in Table VI-5. These impacts are associated with direct construction impacts and indirect visitor impacts. FDOT Aviation Office VI-6 Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task VI: Economic Impact Table VI-5 Summary of NLA First-round Annual Impacts Period Employment Payroll Output Past Airport Capital Improvements 43 $1,655,000 $5,667,000 New Visitor Expenditures 0 $0 $0 Past Annual Total 43 $1,655,000 $5,667,000 Present Airport Capital Improvements 43 $1,655,000 $5,667,000 New Visitor Expenditures 0 $0 $0 Present Annual Total 43 $1,655,000 $5,667,000 Future Airport Capital Improvements 293 $11,311,000 $38,739,000 New Visitor Expenditures 2,670 $70,880,000 $156,327,000 Future Annual Total 2,963 $82,191,000 $195,066,000 Note: First-round annual impacts include only direct and indirect impacts. Sources: US BEA, RIMS II multipliers, June 2008, and Wilbur Smith Associates, Analysis, June 2008. NLA Total Annual Economic Impact All of these impacts produce additional, second-round, benefits through the multiplier effect. The multipliers used to calculate the second-round impacts are provided by the Bureau of Economic Analysis through their RIMS II model. When taking into account the multiplier impacts associated with the benefits shown in Table VI-5, total future annual output related to NLA operations in Florida could approach nearly $398 million, as shown in Table VI-6. By 2018, annual economic activity associated with NLA could support more than 4,700 jobs with a total payroll in excess of $153 million. Economic impacts shown in this table are those associated with capital improvements and additive visitor spending. FDOT Aviation Office VI-7 Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task VI: Economic Impact Table VI-6 Summary of NLA Total Annual Impacts Period Employment Payroll Output Past Airport Capital Improvements 91 $3,276,000 $12,766,000 New Visitor Expenditures 0 $0 $0 Past Annual Total 91 $3,276,000 $12,766,000 Present Airport Capital Improvements 91 $3,276,000 $12,766,000 New Visitor Expenditures 0 $0 $0 Present Annual Total 91 $3,276,000 $12,766,000 Future Airport Capital Improvements 622 $22,389,000 $87,267,000 New Visitor Expenditures 4,114 $130,743,000 $310,618,000 Future Annual Total 4,736 $153,132,000 $397,885,000 Note: Total Annual Impacts include direct, indirect and induced impacts. Sources: US BEA, RIMS II multipliers, June 2008, and Wilbur Smith Associates, Analysis, June 2008. VLJ Impacts VLJs contribute to the economy of Florida through a variety of means. While this study focused on the quantifiable benefits, such as jobs and payroll associated with the manufacture and operation of VLJs, it should be remembered that there are also non-quantifiable benefits associated with VLJs. One example of a VLJ-related benefit not quantified in this report is the recent five-year agreement between DayJet and the FAA to use Florida as a test bed to implement NextGen airspace and air traffic control technologies. These technologies will improve approach capabilities, reduce fuel burn, and reduce airspace congestion and associated aircraft delays. The collaboration is expected to improve the performance of DayJet operations, making them more efficient. The collaboration will also provide data to the FAA on its NextGen system, which will aid in the future deployment of the NextGen airspace and air traffic control system across the nation. Another example of a benefit not assigned a dollar value in this section is the added connectivity provided by VLJs to businesses travelers in Florida. Productivity is a driving force for business in the U.S. Quick and efficient travel is often key to the location of an employer. In fact, many businesses in Florida have located and expanded where they are because of access to commercial airline service. The advent of VLJ on-demand service provides new travel efficiencies for communities not served by commercial airlines. Access to on-demand flights operated by companies such as DayJet enables Florida cities not served by commercial airlines to offer the transportation infrastructure needed to attract and retain many employers. The quantifiable economic benefits of VLJs estimated in this section of this report are driven, in part, by VLJ companies operating in Florida. The best known companies are DayJet and FDOT Aviation Office VI-8 Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task VI: Economic Impact Eclipse. DayJet launched VLJ air taxi service throughout Florida in October 2007, using Eclipse 500 VLJs. Eclipse, the leading manufacturer of VLJs, has an aircraft service center in Gainesville. A service center for VLJs also operates in Boca Raton. There are also other Florida companies that contribute to VLJ economic related benefits. Among others, these include businesses engaged in various facets of flight training. The following section describes the methods by which economic benefits of VLJ-related activities in Florida were estimated. Economic impacts for VLJ activities in Florida will assessed for the following categories: • VLJ Operators • VLJ Airports • VLJ Flight Training/Simulators • VLJ-related Capital Improvements • VLJ Manufacturing VLJ Operators For this analysis, the economic impact of VLJ operators was limited to air taxi and charter operators. It was assumed that private or corporate users of VLJs would substitute some other type of aircraft for their use, if VLJs were not available. Therefore, it was assumed that corporate and private use of VLJs will not result in additive economic impacts. In contrast, air taxi start-ups using VLJs in Florida have indicated that the availability of VLJs is what makes their business model viable. To calculate economic impacts for the present related to VLJ operators in Florida, it was necessary to rely on information provided by DayJet. DayJet has the most significant on- demand service in Florida using VLJs. DayJet provided information on current employment, which was used in this analysis to estimate economic impacts from VLJ operators in Florida. In addition to an estimate of employment, it was also necessary to have an estimate of current payroll and output for per VLJ employee in order to estimate economic impacts associated with VLJ operators. Another source was used for this information. Payroll and output estimates were determined by assuming an average annual payroll and output per employee. These averages were determined from a VLJ study completed by CRA International on behalf of Eclipse Aviation. The CRA study, The Economic Impact of Very Light Jets, estimated the average number of VLJ employees (pilots, maintenance workers and ground staff) at three types of airports. One type of airport supported air taxi service and VLJ maintenance facilities. The other two types supported different levels of air taxi service. For this study, the airport type supporting both air taxi and VLJ maintenance service was selected as it was believed that this was most representative of the mix of employment that results from VLJ operators. Using the information from DayJet on operator employment and information from the CRA study on payroll and output per VLJ employee, Table VI-7 shows present and future annual employment, payroll and output estimates for VLJ operators in Florida. FDOT Aviation Office VI-9 Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task VI: Economic Impact Table VI-7 First-round Annual Impacts of Florida VLJ Operators Period Employment Payroll Output Past 0 $0 $0 Present 156 $12,023,000 $18,360,000 Future 1,623 $125,083,000 $191,018,000 Note: First-round annual impacts include only direct and indirect impacts. Sources: CRA International, The Economic Impact of Very Light Jets, May 2006; DayJet, Staff Interview, May 2008; and Wilbur Smith Associates, Analysis, June 2008. VLJ Airports The economic impacts of VLJs in Florida were estimated by assuming that similar types of airports would support similar levels of jobs, payroll and output as a result of VLJ operations. Economic impacts for airports were based on the previously mentioned VLJ study conducted by CRA International. That study developed estimates of national averages of VLJ operations, jobs, payroll and output for three types of airports. CRA categorized airport types in their study as follows: 1. Airports where a VLJ operator bases aircraft and crews, and VLJ maintenance facilities are available. These are the airports that would have the highest levels of VLJ-related economic impact. 2. Airports where one or more VLJ operators base aircraft and crews. These airports would have at least some measurable economic impact. 3. Airports that have neither based VLJ operators nor VLJ maintenance facilities, but serve as destinations for VLJ passengers. While these airports would have VLJ operations, these operations or activities would not generate any measureable economic impact. Previous sections of this report used a variety of facilities and services to assign airports in Florida to one of four “tiers”. Generally, airports in Tier O-I now have facilities and services to support all facets of on-demand VLJ air taxi operations. Airports in Tier O-II have most facilities and services in place to serve air taxi operators using VLJ aircraft. Tier O-III airports have the runway length, but lack the approach capabilities most often sought by on- demand VLJ operators. Tier O-IV airports now lack the runway length that would attract use by on-demand VLJ operators. While VLJs may in fact operate at a large number of airports in Florida, it is most likely that any air taxi operator using VLJs will perform most of their operations at airports in either Tier O-I or Tier O-II. For the next 10 years, volumes of VLJ activity by on-demand operators at Tier O-III and Tier O-IV airports will most likely not be of a magnitude that would result in any measurable or stand alone economic impacts. As part of this analysis, it was assumed that economic impacts associated with on-demand VLJ air taxi operators would be associated with airports in either Tier O-I or Tier O-II over the next 10 years. FDOT Aviation Office VI-10 Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task VI: Economic Impact While all airports in Tier O-I and Tier O-II now have the facilities and services to support on- demand VLJ operators, the nature of the industry is such that not all airports in these two categories will have a level of on-demand VLJ activity that will produce stand alone economic impacts in the next 10 years. As the VLJ on-demand industry matures and becomes a more widely used form of transportation, additional airports in Florida may have increased volumes of VLJ on-demand activity that could produce measurable economic impacts beyond this study’s 10-year outlook. Information from the CRA study was used to estimate the number of airports in Tier O-I and Tier O-II that would be likely to have measurable economic impact activity from on-demand VLJ operations, presently and in the future. While a specific number of airports were identified as being likely to support measurable VLJ on-demand economic impacts, the specific airports where this activity may occur were not identified in this analysis. The methodology by which those economic impacts were estimated is described below: 1. As noted above, the CRA study determined that while there are three types of airports that will accommodate VLJ operations, only two of these types will have VLJ-related activities that will generate economic impacts. A previous task of this study determined that within the next ten years, most VLJ activity in Florida will be supported by airports in Tier O-I and/or Tier O-II. The CRA study estimated that roughly 34 percent of the airports that support VLJ operations will have measurable economic impact from this activity. A total of 66 Florida airports have been assigned in this analysis to either Tier O-I or Tier O-II. Based on the CRA study, an estimated 23 of the airports in Tier O-I and/or Tier O-II will have measurable economic impacts related to exclusively to VLJ activity within the next 10 years. Seven of these airports, assumed to be within Tier O-I, will have the most VLJ-related economic impacts. Another 16 airports which could be in either Tier O-I or Tier O-II will also have measurable economic impacts. 2. Information from DayJet and the CRA study were used to develop ratios of employment, payroll and output for the two types of airports that will have economic impacts related exclusively to VLJ activity. Ratios for the busiest airports were set at 144 employees per airport, annual payroll of $11,097,940 per airport and annual output of $16,947,954. For the other airports that will have VLJ-related economic impacts, the ratios were set at 53 employees per airport, annual payroll of $5,032,466 per airport and annual output of $6,182,511 per airport. This information was used to prepare estimates of economic impacts in the “VLJ airport” category. Because certain elements of the economic impacts used to estimate “VLJ airport” related VLJ impacts are also contained in the previously estimated “VLJ operator” impacts, it was necessary to adjust and reduce the airport-related impacts accordingly. Table VI-8 summarizes future first-round impacts for the airport category estimated using the assumptions discussed here. FDOT Aviation Office VI-11 Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task VI: Economic Impact Table VI-8 Future Airport First-round Impacts of VLJ Operations Number of Airport Type Airports Employment Payroll Output Tier O-I 7 1,008 $77,685,580 $118,635,678 Tier O-I and/or O-II 16 848 $80,519,456 $98,920,176 Subtotal (rounded) 23 1,856 $158,205,000 $217,556,000 Less Operator Impacts --- 1,623 $125,083,000 $191,018,000 Total 23 233 $33,122,000 $26,538,000 Note: First-round annual impacts include only direct and indirect impacts. Sources: CRA International, The Economic Impact of Very Light Jets, May 2006; and Wilbur Smith Associates, Analysis, June 2008. VLJ Flight Training/Simulators The introduction of the VLJ opens a new segment of flight training opportunities for aviation. Florida has a number of flight training businesses, as well as companies that produce flight simulators. These businesses are positioned to capitalize on the growth of the VLJ market. FlightSafety International, a leading provider of flight training, has facilities in Orlando, Lakeland, Vero Beach and West Palm Beach. SimCom, another well known flight training company, has two facilities in Orlando and a third in Vero Beach. The benefits attributed to VLJ training consist of estimates of additional jobs, associated payroll and the output resulting from flight training programs undertaken in Florida to support VLJ activity. Additional benefits are derived from the manufacture of VLJ flight simulators. For example, Opinicus Corporation is headquartered in Lutz, Florida. This company builds sophisticated full-motion flight simulators for civilian and military use. In 2006, they became the exclusive developer of training simulators for the Eclipse 500. Economic impacts in terms of jobs, payroll and output from this activity were estimated for this study and were included in this category. The estimated impacts from flight training were based on information gathered from FlightSafety and SimCom. FlightSafety stated in an email that they will provide training for the HondaJet and the Cessna Mustang. SimCom was a little less certain about their future in VLJ training, but stated in a phone conversation that they may offer Cessna Mustang or PiperJet training. Neither company presently offers VLJ flight training. For this analysis, it was assumed that for each type of VLJ aircraft training offered, the flight training company would use a level B flight simulator and employ a simulator instructor, a classroom instructor and a flight simulator technician. Average annual payroll for each of these employees was assumed to be $50,000. Estimated output was based on recouping each year 10 percent of the typical cost of a level B flight simulator ($3 million, according to a 2006 Airfinance Journal article) for an annual output of $300,000 for each simulator used in training. Table VI-9 shows the first-round economic impacts of VLJ flight training in Florida. FDOT Aviation Office VI-12 Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task VI: Economic Impact Table VI-9 Future Annual First-round Impacts from VLJ Flight Training in Florida Company Employment Payroll Output FlightSafety 6 $300,000 $600,000 SimCom 3 $150,000 $300,000 Total 9 $450,000 $900,000 Note: First-round annual impacts include only direct and indirect impacts. Sources: FlightSafety International, email correspondence, June 2008; SimCom, email correspondence, June 2008; and Wilbur Smith Associates, Analysis, June 2008 The estimate of impacts from the manufacture of flight simulators was based on information obtained from news articles on Opinicus, which has an exclusive contract to build Eclipse 500 simulators for the aircraft manufacturer. Those articles indicated that: 1. The contract will keep Opinicus busy through 2018. 2. The simulators are full-motion level D simulators, which could cost as much as $30 million each, although other sources indicate $12 million to $15 million is a more reasonable estimate. 3. Opinicus has delivered three simulators to Eclipse’s Albuquerque training center (Eclipse does its own flight training) as of January 2008. 4. A fourth simulator is planned for delivery by the end of 2008. 5. Opinicus hired an additional 150 personnel to build Eclipse 500 simulators. Using this basic information, a low and high estimate of VLJ flight simulator deliveries was developed. Under the low scenario, it was assumed that Opinicus would deliver one simulator per year at a price (output) of $12 million, resulting in an average annual output of $12 million. Under the high scenario, it was assumed that Opinicus would deliver six simulators per year at a price of $15 million each, resulting in an average annual output of $90 million. The estimated annual output of Opinicus was assumed to be an average of the low and high estimates, equating to $51 million. Additionally, each employee was assumed to have an average annual payroll of $50,000. The results of these assumptions are shown in Table VI-10. This table presents the present and future first-round economic impacts for VLJ simulator manufacturing in Florida. Table VI-10 Annual First-round Impacts of VLJ Flight Simulator Production in Florida Period Employment Payroll Output Past 0 $0 $0 Present 150 $7,500,000 $45,000,000 Future 150 $7,500,000 $51,000,000 Note: First-round annual impacts include only direct and indirect impacts. Sources: Albuquerque Journal, "Eclipse Gets Certification," January 19, 2008, pg. C.5; K. Wiatrowski, The Tampa Tribune, "High-tech Newcomer Fits with County’s Flight Plan," August 15, 2006, pg. 1; and .Wilbur Smith Associates, Analysis, June 2008 FDOT Aviation Office VI-13 Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task VI: Economic Impact VLJ-related Capital Improvements Capital improvement projects, related to VLJ activity in Florida, are related to three types of development. The first type of capital improvements are those related to development at airports. The other types of capital improvements are those related to the development of additional VLJ service centers in Florida and those that will be needed to build facilities where VLJ aircraft will be manufactured in Florida. For this analysis, annual economic impacts related to VLJ-related capital improvement were again assigned to past, present and future periods. In the past, a number of capital projects were undertaken at Florida airports in preparation for VLJ operations. These included projects undertaken by airport owners to improve their existing infrastructure and projects by others to include building entirely new facilities. New VLJ-related facilities developed in Florida in the past include the Eclipse service center in Gainesville. The benefits from these projects include the output needed to implement the improvement and the construction jobs and payroll supported by the development. For all of these past capital improvements, employment and payroll were estimated based upon the total cost (output) of the project. Approximately 7.6 construction jobs for every $1 million in capital costs are supported in Florida. Those jobs have an average payroll of approximately $38,700. Since capital improvement projects are often undertaken over the course of several years, it was assumed that the benefits from these projects were spread, on average, over four years, since specific construction time periods were not available for most of these projects. The past impacts considered in this analysis consist of the Eclipse Service Center in Gainesville and the VLJ service center in Boca Raton. The cost of each service center was estimated at $11.2 million, based on the reported cost of the Gainesville service center. Table VI-11 shows the economic benefits from these past projects. It should be noted that Table VI-11 shows total capital investment; information in this table was not further analyzed. Table VI-11 First-round Impacts of Past VLJ-related Capital Improvements at Florida Airports Project Output Employment Payroll Eclipse Service Center in Gainesville $11,200,000 84 $3,270,243 VLJ Service Center in Boca Raton $11,200,000 84 $3,270,243 Total $22,400,000 168 $6,540,487 Note: First-round annual impacts include only direct and indirect impacts. Source: Wilbur Smith Associates, Analysis, June 2008. According to interviews with DayJet, this air taxi operator plans to make use of existing infrastructure, rather than investing in new infrastructure. Nevertheless, research for this analysis found one example of an airport, Gainesville, that invested $70,000 in hangar improvements to support VLJ operations. It was assumed other airports in Tier O-I may have had made similar investments, while other airports in both Tier O-I and Tier O-II may have FDOT Aviation Office VI-14 Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task VI: Economic Impact made half of this investment in some type of infrastructure specifically to support VLJ activity. Table VI-12 shows the results of these assumptions. Table VI-12 First-round Impacts of Present VLJ-related Capital Improvements at Florida Airports Number of Output per Projects at: Airports Airport Total Output Employment Payroll Tier O-I Airports 2 $70,000 $140,000 1 $40,878 Tier O-I and Tier O-II 7 $35,000 $245,000 2 $71,537 Airports Total 9 --- $385,000 3 $112,415 Note: First-round annual impacts include only direct and indirect impacts. Source: Wilbur Smith Associates, Analysis, June 2008. To estimate future economic impacts related to capital improvements, the following assumptions were used: 1. Embraer will develop a VLJ service center in Fort Lauderdale; the total estimated cost for this facility will be $17 million. 2. In addition to the VLJ service centers at Gainesville and Boca Raton, four additional service centers will be developed at Tier O-I airports over the next 10 years. 3. It was assumed that 9 of the 23 Tier O-I and Tier O-II airports expected to support VLJ-related economic impact have now implemented some type of minor improvement to support VLJ activity. Over the next ten years, the remaining 14 Tier O-I and Tier O-II airports are expected to undertake some type of capital improvement project to support VLJ operations. These projects were assumed to range in cost by tier from $70,000 to $35,000, respectively. 4. Major capital improvements will also be needed for VLJ manufacturing facilities that Embraer plans for Melbourne and Piper plans for Vero Beach. The total cost of each of these facilities is estimated at $50 million each. Before the future benefits are annualized, total future first-round economic impacts from capital improvement projects related to VLJs were estimated as follows: • Total output: $161,800,000 • Total employment: 1,222 • Total payroll: $47,243,337 As stated earlier, for capital improvement projects, economic benefits are actually accrued over a period of time. Since the implementation time span for every project is not known, future benefits estimated in this analysis were averaged over four years to obtain an average annual future impact from capital improvements, with the exception of the $70,000 and $35,000 investments each airport was estimated to make. Instead, these small amounts were FDOT Aviation Office VI-15 Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task VI: Economic Impact assumed to be annual investments. Table VI-13 summarizes average annual impacts for the past, present and future periods. Table VI-13 Average Annual First-round Impacts of VLJ-related Capital Improvements at Florida Airports Period Employment Payroll Output Past 42 $1,635,000 $5,600,000 Present 3 $112,000 $385,000 Future 310 $12,005,000 $41,115,000 Note: First-round annual impacts include only direct and indirect impacts. Source: Wilbur Smith Associates, Analysis, June 2008. VLJ Manufacturers Florida will be a center for VLJ manufacturing. Piper Aircraft plans to build a VLJ factory in Vero Beach, on their existing manufacturing campus, where it expects to produce approximately 100 PiperJets per year. Embraer, a Brazilian manufacturer of jet aircraft, opted to build its Phenom in a new factory in Melbourne, Florida. The economic benefits of constructing these facilities were estimated in the previous section addressing economic impacts from capital improvement projects. Once operating, those manufacturing facilities will employ workers and produce VLJs worth millions of dollars. The jobs, payroll and output from both of these factories were estimated in this analysis. Since neither of these factories is currently operating, there are no past or present economic benefits for this category. Future benefits were based on statements made by each company in terms of how many additional employees will be hired for each factory, on estimates of annual VLJ sales and on the anticipated price of each VLJ. An average annual payroll of $45,700 was assumed for each employee at these manufacturing facilities based on data gathered from other economic impact studies. The output estimate for Piper’s planned factory in Vero Beach was based on sales of between 80 and 120 VLJs per year at $2.2 million each. The average for low and high anticipated sales was used, resulting in an average annual output (sales) of $220 million. More detailed information was available with which to estimate anticipated annual output from the sale of Embraer’s VLJ. Between now and the end of this study’s planning period, sales (output) for the Embraer VLJ are expected to average just over $277 million annually. Using these assumptions, Table VI-14 summarizes the first-round economic impacts of these VLJ factories for the future scenario. FDOT Aviation Office VI-16 Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task VI: Economic Impact Table VI-14 Average Annual Future First-round Impacts of VLJ Manufacturing in Florida Factory Employment Payroll Output Embraer Phenom 200 $9,135,200 $277,155,556 Piper PiperJet 500 $22,838,000 $220,000,000 Total 700 $31,973,200 $497,155,556 Note: First-round annual impacts include only direct and indirect impacts. Source: Wilbur Smith Associates, Analysis, June 2008. First-round VLJ Economic Impact Summary When the benefits of all these segments of the VLJ industry are added together, total future output is expected to approach $808 million annually. In the future, annual economic impacts for VLJs also include approximately 3,000 jobs with payroll of more than $210 million, as shown in Table VI-15. Table VI-15 Summary of VLJ First-round Annual Impacts Period Employment Payroll Output Past Operators 0 $0 $0 Airports 0$0$0 Training 0 $0 $0 Airport Capital Improvements 42 $1,635,000 $5,600,000 Manufacturers 0 $0 $0 Past Annual Total 42 $1,635,000 $5,600,000 Present Operators 156 12,023,000 18,360,000 Airports 40 $3,444,000 $4,724,000 Training 150 $7,500,000 $45,000,000 Airport Capital Improvements 3 $112,000 $385,000 Manufacturers 0 $0 $0 Present Annual Total 349 $23,079,000 $68,469,000 Future Operators 1,623 $125,083,000 $191,018,000 Airports 233 $33,122,000 $26,538,000 Training 159 $7,950,000 $51,900,000 Airport Capital Improvements 310 $12,005,000 $41,115,000 Manufacturers 700 $31,973,000 $497,156,000 Present Annual Total 3,025 $210,133,000 $807,727,000 Note: First-round annual impacts include only direct and indirect impacts. Source: Wilbur Smith Associates, Analysis, June 2008. Total Annual Economic Impact of VLJs The multiplier impacts increase these benefits even further. The RIMS multipliers specific to Florida were used to estimate second-round or induced impacts. FDOT Aviation Office VI-17 Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task VI: Economic Impact Using these multipliers, the total impacts from VLJ activity in Florida were estimated, as shown in Table VI-16. Including both first- and second-round benefits brings the total future output from VLJ activity in Florida to almost $1.7 billion annually, with nearly 9,500 jobs that have an annual payroll exceeding $515 million. Table VI-16 Summary of VLJ Total Annual Impacts Period Employment Payroll Output Past Operators 0 $0 $0 Airports 0 $0 $0 Training 0 $0 $0 Airport Capital Improvements 89 $3,236,000 $12,615,000 Manufacturers 0 $0 $0 Past Annual Total 89 $3,236,000 $12,615,000 Present Operators 526 29,817,000 40,271,000 Airports 135 $8,541,000 $10,362,000 Training 569 $20,477,000 $86,954,000 Airport Capital Improvements 6 $222,000 $867,000 Manufacturers 0 $0 $0 Present Annual Total 1,236 $59,057,000 $138,454,000 Future Operators 5,471 $310,206,000 $418,979,000 Airports 785 $82,143,000 $58,208,000 Training 603 $21,705,000 $100,286,000 Airport Capital Improvements 658 $23,763,000 $92,620,000 Manufacturers 1,972 $77,522,000 $1,005,200,000 Future Annual Total 9,489 $515,339,000 $1,675,293,000 Note: Total Annual Impacts include direct, indirect and induced impacts. Sources: US BEA, RIMS II multipliers, June 2008, and Wilbur Smith Associates, Analysis, June 2008. Productivity Enhancement from Time Savings An additional benefit of VLJs is the productivity enhancement resulting from the time savings that passengers can experience as compared to making the same trip by car or even in some cases by commercial airline. The economic value of this productivity enhancement can be quantified using the same method that the FAA uses in valuing delay-reducing projects for benefit-cost analysis. Details can be found in FAA Airport Benefit-Cost Analysis Guidance, December 15, 1999, and Economic Values for FAA Investment and Regulatory Decisions: A Guide, December 31, 2004. Since the value of productivity enhancement does not translate directly into jobs and payroll, it is treated separately from the other economic benefits shown previously. Also, no multiplier impact was applied to the value of productivity enhancement. The estimate of productivity enhancement started with an estimate of passengers that may be carried on VLJ aircraft in Florida. An estimate of present year operations was estimated from information provided by DayJet. For the future scenario, the number of VLJ operations for FDOT Aviation Office VI-18 Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task VI: Economic Impact the moderate forecast from Table V-18 was used to estimate a number of passengers. Operations were divided by two to obtain total VLJ departures. It was assumed that 30 percent of all departures did not carry passengers (i.e., they were repositioning flights, maintenance flights, etc.). Based on interviews with DayJet, it was assumed that passenger- carrying flights averaged 1.5 passengers per flight. The total number of VLJ passengers carried in Florida, present and future, is shown in Table VI-17. Table VI-17 Estimate of Annual Florida VLJ Passengers Passenger- Total VLJ Total VLJ carrying VLJ Load Total Period Operations Flights Flights Factor Passengers Past 0 0 0 1.5 0 Present 18,720 9,360 6,552 1.5 9,828 Future 447,480 223,740 156,618 1.5 234,927 Source: Wilbur Smith Associates, Analysis, June 2008. The previously mentioned CRA study also estimated the total time savings for passengers using VLJs. The CRA study estimated that passengers using VLJs would save 4.6 hours per departure. For this analysis, it was assumed that the value of this time for those traveling on VLJ aircraft is $200 per hour. This value, based on information from The Velocity Group, is significantly higher than what is used by FAA benefit-cost studies. It was assumed for this study, that VLJ air taxi service would be used predominately by business professionals that typically bill in excess of $200 per hour for their time. Table VI-18 shows the calculation of the value of productivity enhancement resulting from time savings for passengers flying on VLJs. The use of VLJs is expected to provide passengers with nearly $217 million annually in productivity enhancement by 2018. Table VI-18 Annual Value of Productivity Enhancement Times Savings Value of Total per Passenger Value of Time Productivity Period Passengers (hours) ($/hour) Enhancement Past 0 4.6 $200 $0 Present 9,828 4.6 $200 $9,068,178 Future 234,927 4.6 $200 $216,764,000 Source: Wilbur Smith Associates, Analysis, June 2008. Summary The introduction of Next Generation Aircraft into Florida’s aircraft operational fleet is expected to result in notable economic benefits. The anticipated introduction of NLA has already resulted in capital projects at few major commercial airports in Florida, and NLA are expected to provide a boost to Florida’s international tourism market. Overall, NLA will contribute nearly $398 million in annual economic output to Florida’s economy by 2018. Several airports have already benefited from capital projects and facilities intended to serve VLJs. DayJet is supporting jobs and adding to the economic benefit Florida receives from FDOT Aviation Office VI-19 Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task VI: Economic Impact aviation. VLJ on-demand air taxi service is a significant benefit to communities not served by commercial airlines. Efficient air travel is one tool that many businesses are seeking when they relocate or expand. Future years are expected to see increased benefits from VLJs as DayJet expands and other VLJ operators enter the Florida market, and as VLJ manufacturing ramps up to full production lines. It is estimated that these operations could result in nearly $1.7 billion in annual economic benefit to Florida. In addition to this benefit, passengers using VLJs instead of their car or less convenient commercial airlines are expected to enjoy annual productivity enhancements valued at nearly $217 million by 2018. FDOT Aviation Office VI-20 Next Generation Aircraft: A Florida Perspective Task VI: Economic Impact Bibliography CRA International. The Economic Impact of Very Light Jets. May 10, 2006. -----. Crews control. (October 2006). Airfinance Journal, pg. 1. Davis, P. (2006, April 25). Talk about Landing a Dream Business. St. Petersburg Times. pg. 6. -----. Eclipse Gets Certification. (2008, January 19). Albuquerque Journal. pg. C.5. Federal Aviation Administration. Airport Benefit-Cost Analysis Guidance. December 15, 1999. Federal Aviation Administration. Economic Values for FAA Investment and Regulatory Decisions: A Guide. December 31, 2004. U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. RIMS II Multipliers for Florida as of May 2008. Wiatrowski, K. (2006, August 15). High-tech Newcomer Fits with County’s Flight Plan. The Tampa Tribune. pg. 1. FDOT Aviation Office VI-21