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New Melones Lake Commercial Services Study and Financial Feasibility Evaluation (Final)

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New Melones Lake Commercial Services Study and Financial Feasibility Evaluation (Final) New Melones Lake Commercial Services Study and Financial Feasibility Evaluation (Final) U.S. Department of the Interior Bureau of Reclamation Mid-Pacific Region Central California Area Office Sacramento, CA April 2011 Mission Statements The mission of the Department of the Interior is to protect and provide access to our Nation’s natural and cultural heritage and honor our trust responsibilities to Indian Tribes and our commitments to island communities. The mission of the Bureau of Reclamation is to manage, develop, and protect water and related resources in an environmentally and economically sound manner in the interest of the American public. Contents Contents Page Chapter 1 Introduction ..................................................................................................... 1-1 1.1 New Melones Lake Resource Management Plan ......................................................... 1-4 1.2 Public Involvement ....................................................................................................... 1-4 1.3 Environmental Compliance .......................................................................................... 1-5 1.4 Reclamation Concessions Policy .................................................................................. 1-5 1.5 Relationship to Concessions Prospectus ....................................................................... 1-7 1.6 Outline of Report .......................................................................................................... 1-7 Chapter 2 Overview of New Melones Lake .................................................................... 2-1 2.1 Management at New Melones Lake ............................................................................. 2-1 2.1.1 Management Policies, Guidance, and Studies .................................................. 2-1 2.1.2 New Melones Lake Management Areas ........................................................... 2-2 2.2 Recreation Resources at New Melones Lake ................................................................ 2-4 2.2.1 Recreation Activities......................................................................................... 2-4 2.2.2 Recreation Areas ............................................................................................... 2-5 2.2.3 Recreation Facilities ......................................................................................... 2-7 2.3 Recreation Use and Visitation .................................................................................... 2-15 2.4 Commercial Services and Concessions ...................................................................... 2-15 2.4.1 New Melones Lake Marina............................................................................. 2-15 2.4.2 Other Commercial Services ............................................................................ 2-19 Chapter 3 Regional Recreation Facilities and Commercial Services ........................... 3-1 3.1 Supply of Recreation Resources ................................................................................... 3-1 3.1.1 Water-Based Recreation Facilities near New Melones Lake ........................... 3-1 3.1.2 Comparable Water-Based Recreation Facilities Statewide .............................. 3-9 3.1.3 Summary and Comparison of Facilities with New Melones Lake ................. 3-14 3.1.4 Private Recreation-Oriented Businesses in Local Area .................................. 3-15 3.2 Demand for Recreation Resources.............................................................................. 3-16 3.2.1 Measures of Existing Recreation Demand at New Melones Lake ................. 3-17 3.2.2 Regional Recreation Demand ......................................................................... 3-22 3.2.3 Trends in Recreation Use ................................................................................ 3-24 3.2.4 Other Factors Influencing Recreation Demand .............................................. 3-26 3.2.5 Conclusions Regarding Recreation Demand .................................................. 3-28 Chapter 4 Review of Commercial Service Opportunities ............................................. 4-1 4.1 Criteria for Evaluation .................................................................................................. 4-1 4.2 Commercial Service Opportunities Subject to Evaluation ........................................... 4-2 4.2.1 Marina Services: Berths and Moorings ............................................................ 4-2 4.2.2 Marina Services: Dry Boat Storage .................................................................. 4-4 4.2.3 Marina Services: Boat Repair ........................................................................... 4-5 4.2.4 Marina Services: Motorized Watercraft Rentals .............................................. 4-5 4.2.5 Marina Services: Non-Motorized Watercraft Rentals ...................................... 4-6 4.2.6 Food and Drink Service .................................................................................... 4-6 4.2.7 Recreation Supply and Convenience Store ....................................................... 4-7 4.2.8 Lake Tours and Cruises .................................................................................... 4-7 i FINAL – April 2011 New Melones Lake Commercial Services Study & Financial Feasibility Evaluation 4.2.9 RV Park............................................................................................................. 4-8 4.2.10 Lodging ............................................................................................................. 4-8 4.2.11 Horseback Riding Stables ................................................................................. 4-8 4.2.12 Adventure Outfitter Guide Services ................................................................. 4-9 4.2.13 Event Venue ...................................................................................................... 4-9 4.2.14 Mountain Bike Course or Park ....................................................................... 4-10 4.2.15 Whitewater Rafting (Guided) ......................................................................... 4-10 4.2.16 Fishing Guide Services ................................................................................... 4-10 4.2.17 Seaplane School .............................................................................................. 4-11 4.2.18 OHV Course ................................................................................................... 4-11 4.2.19 Skeet & Target Shooting................................................................................. 4-11 4.2.20 Summary of Commercial Service Opportunities ............................................ 4-11 4.3 Location of Potential Commercial Services ............................................................... 4-12 Chapter 5 Resource Opportunities and Constraints ..................................................... 5-1 5.1 GIS-Based Site Selection Analysis ............................................................................... 5-1 5.2 Resource Opportunities and Constraints ....................................................................... 5-1 5.3 Site Suitability ............................................................................................................... 5-4 Chapter 6 Engineering Review ........................................................................................ 6-1 6.1 Field Condition Assessment ......................................................................................... 6-1 6.2 Cost Estimates ............................................................................................................... 6-4 Chapter 7 Financial Feasibility Evaluation .................................................................... 7-1 7.1 Overview of Financial Feasibility Studies .................................................................... 7-1 7.1.1 Role of Financial Feasibility in Business Planning .......................................... 7-1 7.1.2 Measures of Financial Feasibility ..................................................................... 7-2 7.2 Financial Feasibility in the Commercial Service Planning Process.............................. 7-3 7.2.1 Key Factors Affecting Financial Feasibility ..................................................... 7-4 7.2.2 Financial Feasibility Framework ...................................................................... 7-6 7.3 Financial Feasibility of Proposed Commercial Services at New Melones Lake .......... 7-7 7.3.1 Analytical Assumptions .................................................................................... 7-7 7.3.2 Marina Services ................................................................................................ 7-8 7.3.3 RV Park........................................................................................................... 7-12 7.3.4 Equestrian Stables ........................................................................................... 7-14 7.4 Sensitivity Analyses of Financial Feasibility .............................................................. 7-18 7.4.1 Variation in Operating Assumptions .............................................................. 7-18 7.4.2 Variation in Capital Cost Estimates ................................................................ 7-20 Chapter 8 Summary
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