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A New Start for the Eurozone: Dealing with Debt

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A New Start for the Eurozone: Dealing with Debt The European Council of Economic Experts is a new CEPR initiative, created to provide a platform for the highest calibre analysis of economic developments in the Eurozone. The founding members, and the authors of this inaugural report, set a clear research agenda and define the biggest economic challenges the continent will face in the coming years to prevent a recurrence of the 2008 Global Crisis. The first of the Monitoring the Eurozone series addresses the measures Eurozone countries need to take to guard against returning financial instability that could threaten a sustainable A New Start recovery. The authors consider stock operations, lending structures and regulatory changes in protecting sovereign debt on a national for the Eurozone: and Europe-wide level. Dealing with Debt MONITORING THE EUROZONE 1 “This first Monitoring the Eurozone report firmly establishes the newly formed European Council of Economic Experts as a leading voice in the Eurozone debate. They clearly set out the key challenges and develop a menu of bold policy recommendations to address them. This is must-read material for anyone serious about following Eurozone developments.” Richard Baldwin, Professor of Economics, Graduate Institute, Geneva Giancarlo Corsetti Lars P. Feld Philip R. Lane Lucrezia Reichlin Centre for Economic Policy Research Hélène Rey CEPR PRESS 77 Bastwick Street, London EC1V 3PZ CEPR PRESS Dimitri Vayanos Beatrice Weder di Mauro A New Start for the Eurozone: Dealing with Debt Monitoring the Eurozone 1 Centre for Economic Policy Research Centre for Economic Policy Research 3rd Floor 77 Bastwick Street London EC1V 3PZ UK Tel: +44 (20) 7183 8801 Fax: +44 (20) 7183 8820 Email: [email protected] Web: www.cepr.org ISBN: 978-1-907142-89-5 © March 2015, CEPR Press. A New Start for the Eurozone: Dealing with Debt Monitoring the Eurozone 1 Giancarlo Corsetti Cambridge University and CEPR Lars P. Feld Walter Eucken Institut and University of Freiburg Philip R. Lane Trinity College Dublin and CEPR Lucrezia Reichlin London Business School and CEPR Hélène Rey London Business School and CEPR Dimitri Vayanos London School of Economics and Political Science and CEPR Beatrice Weder di Mauro University of Mainz and CEPR CEPR PRESS Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) The Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) is a network of over 900 research economists based mostly in European universities. The Centre’s goal is twofold: to promote world-class research, and to get the policy-relevant results into the hands of key decision-makers. CEPR’s guiding principle is ‘Research excellence with policy relevance’. A registered charity since it was founded in 1983, CEPR is independent of all public and private interest groups. It takes no institutional stand on economic policy matters and its core funding comes from its Institutional Members and sales of publications. Because it draws on such a large network of researchers, its output reflects a broad spectrum of individual viewpoints as well as perspectives drawn from civil society. CEPR research may include views on policy, but the Trustees of the Centre do not give prior review to its publications. The opinions expressed in this report are those of the authors and not those of CEPR. Chair of the Board Guillermo de la Dehesa President Richard Portes Director Richard Baldwin Research Director Kevin Hjortshøj O’Rourke About the Authors Giancarlo Corsetti is Professor of Macroeconomics at the University of Cambridge. He is Research Fellow of the Centre for Economic Policy Research in London, where he serves as Director of the International Macroeconomic Programme, and a research consultant to the European Central Bank and the Bank of England. His main field of interest is international economics and open- economy macro. His main contributions to the literature include models of the international transmission mechanisms and optimal monetary policy in open economies; theoretical and empirical studies of currency and financial crises and their international contagion; models of international policy cooperation and international financial architecture; quantitative and empirical analyses of the multiplier and fiscal policy. He has published articles in many international journals including American Economic Review, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Policy, Journal of Monetary Economics, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Review of Economic Studies, and the Journal of International Economics. He is currently co-editor of the Journal of International Economics. Lars P. Feld is the current Director of the Walter Eucken Institute in Freiburg and Professor of Economics at the University of Freiburg. He holds the chair for Economic Policy and Constitutional Economics at Albert-Ludwigs-University Freiburg since 2010. He is a permanent guest professor at the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW) in Mannheim, as well as a member of Leopoldina (the German National Academy of Sciences), the Scientific Council of the think tank Stiftung Marktwirtschaft (Kronberger Kreis), and the Mont Pelerin Society. Since 2011, he is a member of German Council of Economic Experts. He is also a member of the Scientific Advisory Board to the German Federal Finance Ministry since 2003 and a member of Germany’s Independent Fiscal Council since 2013. In 2007, he served as expert for the Commission of the Bundestag and Bundesrat for modernising fiscal relations between the federal and state governments in the Federal Republic of Germany (Federalism Commission II). Philip R. Lane is Whately Professor of Political Economy at Trinity College Dublin. He received his PhD in Economics from Harvard in 1995 and was Assistant Professor of Economics and International Affairs at Columbia University during 1995-1997 before returning to Dublin. In addition, he is a research fellow of the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) and a member of the steering group for its Macroeconomics of Global Interdependence (MGI) working group. He is also a member of the Royal Irish Academy. v vi A New Start for the Eurozone: Dealing with Debt His research interests include financial globalisation, macroeconomics of exchange rates and capital flows, macroeconomic policy design, European Monetary Union, and the Irish economy. His work has been published in the American Economic Review, Review of Economics and Statistics, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Journal of International Economics, NBER Macroeconomics Annual and many other journals. He is a managing editor of Economic Policy. In 2001, he was the inaugural recipient of the German Bernacer Award in Monetary Economics for outstanding contributions to European monetary economics; in 2010, he was co-recipient of the Bhagwati Prize from the Journal of International Economics. He has also acted as an academic consultant for the European Central Bank, European Commission, International Monetary Fund, World Bank, OECD and a number of national central banks.. Lucrezia Reichlin is Professor of Economics at the London Business School, and non-executive director of UniCredit Banking Group and AGEAS Insurance Group. She is Chair of the Scientific Council at Bruegel as well as a member of the Commission Economique de la Nation (advisory board to the French finance and economics ministers). Between March 2005 and September 2008 she served as Director General of Research at the European Central Bank. She is a co-founder and director of Now-Casting Economics Ltd and a columnist for the Italian national daily Il Corriere della Sera. Lucrezia has been an active contributor to the life of the CEPR over the years. She was Research Director from 2011 to 2013, first Chairman of the CEPR Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee, and co- founder and scientist in charge of the Euro Area Business Cycle Network. Reichlin is a Fellow of the British Academy and of the European Economic Association. Hélène Rey is Professor of Economics at London Business School. Until 2007, she was at Princeton University, as Professor of Economics and International Affairs in the Economics Department and the Woodrow Wilson School. Her research focuses on the determinants and consequences of external trade and financial imbalances, the theory of financial crises and the organization of the international monetary system. Rey is a Fellow of the British Academy, of the Econometrics Society and of the European Economic Association. She is on the board of the Review of Economic Studies and associate editor of the AEJ: Macroeconomics Journal. She is a CEPR Research Fellow and an NBER Research Associate. She is on the Board of the Autorité de Contrôle Prudentiel, a member of the Commission Economique de la Nation and of the Bellagio Group on the international economy. She was a member of the Conseil d’Analyse Economique until 2012. She writes a regular column for the French newspaper Les Echos. Dimitri Vayanos is Professor of Finance at the London School of Economics, where he also directs the Paul Woolley Centre for the Study of Capital Market Dysfunctionality. He received his undergraduate degree from Ecole Polytechnique in Paris and his PhD from MIT. Prior to joining the LSE, he was faculty member at Stanford and MIT. His research, published in leading economics and finance About the Authors vii journals, focuses on financial markets, and especially on what drives market liquidity, why asset prices can differ from assets’ fundamental values, why bubbles and crises can occur, and what are appropriate regulatory and policy responses. He is an Editor of the Review of Economic Studies, a Fellow of the British Academy, a Director of the American Finance Association, a Research Fellow at CEPR and a past Director of its Financial Economics programme, a Research Associate at NBER, and a current or past Associate Editor of a number of journals including the Review of Financial Studies and the Journal of Financial Intermediation. Beatrice Weder di Mauro has held the Chair of International Macroeconomics at the Johannes-Gutenberg-University Mainz since 2001. She served on the German Council of Economic Experts from 2004 to 2012, on the Swiss Council of Economic Advisors from 2002 to 2004 and was an advisor to the Austrian Vice Chancellor 2009 to 2011.
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