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SZ Investment.Indd Asian Cities - 2H 2020 SPOTLIGHT Savills Research Shenzhen Investment Retail sales in Beijing were up 4.4% year-on-year to RMB539.8 billion in 1H 2018 Shenzhen Investment New policies turbocharge local market development GRAPH 1: Shenzhen’s GDP, 2000 to Q1-Q3/2020 MARKET OVERVIEW The central government unveiled the new Primary Industry (LHS) Secondary Industry (LHS) Tertiary Industry (LHS) GDP Growth YoY (RHS) ‘comprehensive reform plan (2020 – 2025)’ 3,000 30% (hereinafter referred to as the ‘new plan’) in October as a continuation of Shenzhen’s 2,500 25% mission of being ‘Pilot Demonstration Zone of Socialism with Chinese Characteristics’ 2,000 20% announced in 2019, providing greater autonomy and a higher level of all-round 1,500 15% opening-up. Given that the new plan came 1,000 10% at a meaningful time—the 40th anniversary RMB BILLIONS of the establishment of the Shenzhen 500 5% Special Economic Zone (SEZ)—Shenzhen is expected to embrace a new chapter of 0 0% development. Additionally, the new plan reinforces Shenzhen’s core engine function and central city position in the Guangdong-Hong Kong- Source Savills Research Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA). Therefore, the real estate industry is forecast to obtain GRAPH 2: New Supply, Net Take-up And Vacancy Rate In The Offi ce Sector, Q4/2015 to Q3/2020 new development opportunities, with New Supply (LHS) Net Take-up (LHS) Vacancy Rate (RHS) demand for land, offi ce, retail and residential 700 35% sectors improving. 600 30% LAND With the support from the new plan, the 500 25% availability of land resources in Shenzhen 400 20% is expected to be enlarged due to more fl exibility in land readjustment by the local 300 15% government. Thus, current issues in the land market—disequilibrium between supply THOUSAND SQ SQ THOUSAND M 200 10% and demand of residential land and the short of supply in land for education, R&D, 100 5% medical and health services—are expected 0 0% to be improved or resolved. Moreover, the Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 development of the land for the secondary and tertiary industries is anticipated to 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source Savills Research TABLE 1: Selected New Supply, Q1/2020 to Q3/2020 PROJECT TYPE LOCATION GFA (SQ M) DEVELOPER OCT Tower Offi ce Futian 125,786 OCT Group Shenzhen Metro Offi ce Futian 103,000 Shenzhen Metro Huitong Building Hanking Center Offi ce Nanshan 100,169 Hanking Group Qianhai Kerry Centre Offi ce Nanshan 60,000 Kerry Properties Limited Phase 1 (T2) Baoneng Global Retail Nanshan 132,000 Baoneng Group Hongshan 6979 Retail Longhua 100,000 China Merchants OCT Gateway One Shopping Retail Nanshan 60,000 China Merchants Shekou Centre Phase II COCO Park Phase II Retail Futian 38,000 Galaxy Group Source Savills Research savills.com.cn/insight-and-opinion/ 2 Shenzhen Investment see new ways to restructure the market supply. Notably, the supply of land for the tertiary industry should increase as the new plan placed great emphasis on the tertiary In the mid-to long-run, the new industry development. policy support is expected to OFFICE facilitate a growing number of In the ceremony of Shenzhen’s 40th enterprises and talent settling in the anniversary, President Xi encouraged Shenzhen to push forward with its modern city, which should generate more service industry, including fi nance, occupier demand for offi ce, retail R&D, design, accounting, law, MICE and other sectors. As a result, the number of and residential space, ultimately enterprises in Shenzhen is expected to see an inexorable rise and the scale of enhancing the city’s competitive some existing bellwether enterprises is edge. forecast to expand in the mid-to long-term, alleviating the oversupply pressure on the GRAPH 3: New Supply, Net Take-up And Vacancy Rate In The Retail Sector, Q4/2015 local offi ce market. The three areas of Futian to Q3/2020 CBD (popular among occupiers from the New Supply (LHS) Net Take-up (LHS) Vacancy Rate (RHS) fi nancial and professional service sectors), 500 12% High-tech Park (popular among occupiers from the TMT sector) and the Qianhai- 400 10% Shekou free trade area (the ‘testbed’ of new measures as stated in the new plan) off er a 300 8% positive outlook for these industries. From an investor’s perspective, the ongoing 200 6% policy support may spark more investment interests. 100 4% THOUSAND SQ SQ THOUSAND M RETAIL 0 2% On the back of the new plan, the aggregate consumption in Shenzhen is expected to see -100 0% an expansion and evolution of consumption Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 patterns. In addition, the implementation 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 of the new plan, with encouragement in Source Savills Research population growth and talent accumulation, should derive more demand in the sectoral market. Compounded with the trend of GRAPH 4: First-hand Residential Sales Market Supply, Transaction Volumes And consumption upgrade and the domestic Average Price, Q4/2015 to Q3/2020 consumption valued by the government, a Supply Volume (LHS) Transaction Volume (LHS) Average Price (RHS) growing number of famous international 3.0 70,000 brands envisage business development and expansion opportunities in Shenzhen’s 2.5 60,000 retail market. However, quality retail properties are still absent or inadequate in 2.0 50,000 RMB PER SQM some areas of the city, where development opportunities are obvious. 1.5 40,000 RESIDENTIAL MILLION SQ M MILLION 1.0 30,000 According to the new plan and President Xi’s 40’th anniversary speech, talent 0.5 20,000 resources are a key driving factor to keep Shenzhen growing, and talent from 0.0 10,000 domestic and overseas’ companies is Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 expected to gravitate to and settle in 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Shenzhen through the opening-up talent Source CRIC, Savills Research policy. Hence, the pent-up demand due to 3 Shenzhen Investment Shenzhen’s ‘715 policy’ (a recent policy placing transacted area reaching 90% by the end of complicated international situation, the central various restrictive conditions on the purchasing Q3/2020. government’s initiative to delegate more political eligibility of potential residential purchasers) powers to the local government will support and is poised for release. With the help of the new SUMMARY encourage Shenzhen to accelerate its progress plan, coupled with the local government’s fi rm Shenzhen, after the SEZ establishment for and explore potential future development. Given determination in carrying out the public housing reform and opening-up 40 years ago and once the real estate industry functioning as one of scheme similar to Singapore’s, there is a hope again entrusted with a new important post by the major carriers of various economic and of a great improvement in the structural issue the central government, is setting out a further social activities, Shenzhen’s real estate market is of asymmetry in the supply and demand in the opening-up path in its next fi ve years. The expected to develop by leaps and bounds in the residential market. Core areas, such as in the timeline for the new plan is scheduled to see future fuelled by policy stimulation. Futian and Nanshan, continue to be popular, outstanding progress in two years, followed by albeit with scarce supply, while emerging areas signifi cant results in fi ve years, which is in line including Bao’an, Longhua, Guangming and with the timeline of the 14th Five-Year Plan. others play a prominent role in the market as Therefore, amidst the COVID-19 pandemic proved by their contribution of the citywide mixing with the unprecedented challenges of the For more information about this report, please contact us Savills Shenzhen Savills Research Woody Lam James Macdonald Carlby Xie Simon Smith Managing Director Senior Director Director Senior Director Southern China China Southern China Asia Pacifi c +8620 3665 4777 +8621 6391 6688 ext 8605 +8620 3665 4874 +852 2842 4573 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Savills plc: Savills plc is a global real estate services provider listed on the London Stock Exchange. We have an international network of more than 600 offi ces and associates throughout the Americas, the UK, continental Europe, Asia Pacifi c, Africa and the Middle East, off ering a broad range of specialist advisory, management and transactional services to clients all over the world. This report is for general informative purposes only. It may not be published, reproduced or quoted in part or in whole, nor may it be used as a basis for any contract, prospectus, agreement or other document without prior consent. While every eff ort has been made to ensure its accuracy, Savills accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from its use. The content is strictly copyright and reproduction of the whole or part of it in any form is prohibited without written permission from Savills Research..
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