journal The Journal of The Foundation for Science and Technology fstVolume 21 Number 7 March 2016 www.foundation.org.uk

Editorial Sir John Enderby: An effective forum for debate Re-engineering the Research Councils Sir Paul Nurse: Putting research at the heart of Government Professor Philip Nelson: Making the most of the opportunities Gareth Davies: Communicating clearly to Government and the community Bolstering research partnerships Dame Ann Dowling: Creating the climate to excel at innovation Sir Peter Gregson: A successful framework for innovation and collaboration Eric Hawthorn: Helping smaller businesses engage with universities Closing the UK/US productivity gap Dr Ruth McKernan: The role of innovation in boosting productivity Professor Jonathan Haskel: Rebooting productivity policy Tony Harper: The importance of collaboration Meeting Scotland’s energy challenge Phil Boswell: The benefits of renewable energy Iain Conn: Scotland’s position in the energy market Gary Haywood: A role for shale gas Professor Rebecca Lunn: Balancing our energy portfolio The future of the Arctic Lord Teverson: Responding to a changing Arctic Jane Rumble: Increasing our engagement Dame Julia Slingo: Charting the changes in the Arctic ecosystem COUNCIL

COUNCIL Professor Polina Bayvel FREng Chairman Sir John Beddington CMG FRS FRSE HonFREng The Earl of Selborne GBE FRS Sir Leszek Borysiewicz FRS FRCP FMedSci The Lord Broers FRS FREng President, The Royal Society Sir Geoffrey Chipperfield KCB Sir Venki Ramakrishnan PRS FMedSci Dr Jeremy Farrar* OBE FRS FMedSci President, Royal Academy of Engineering The Lord Haskel Professor Dame Ann Dowling DBE FRS FREng Dr Julian Huppert* President, British Academy Sir David King ScD FRS HonFREng The Lord Stern of Brentford PBA FRS The Lord Krebs FRS FMedSci President, The Academy of Medical Sciences Dr Mike Lynch OBE FRS FREng Professor Sir Robert Lechler PMedSci Sir Rob Margetts CBE FREng President, The Royal Society of Edinburgh The Lord Mair CBE FRS FREng Professor Dame Jocelyn Bell Burnell DBE FRS FRSE FRAS FInstP The Lord May of Oxford OM AC FRS President, The Learned Society of Wales The Rt Hon Sir Brian Neill* Sir Emyr Jones Parry GCMG FInstP PLSW The Rt Hon the Baroness Neville-Jones* DCMG Chair, Arts & Humanities Research Council The Baroness O’Neill of Bengarve CH CBE FBA FRS Sir Drummond Bone FRSE Sir Paul Nurse FRS FMedSci HonFREng Chair, Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council The Lord Oxburgh KBE FRS Sir Gordon Duff FRCP FRCPE FMedSci FRSE The Lord Rees of Ludlow OM FRS HonFREng Chair, Economic and Social Research Council Dr Peter Ringrose Dr Alan Gillespie CBE The Baroness Sharp of Guildford* Chair, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council Sir Adrian Smith FRS Dr Paul Golby CBE FREng Dr Graham Spittle CBE Chair, Medical Research Council The Lord Trees* Donald Brydon CBE The Baroness Wilcox* Chair, Natural Environment Research Council The Rt Hon the Lord Willetts* Sir Anthony Cleaver HonFREng Sir Peter Williams CBE FREng FRS Chair, Science and Technology Facilities Council The Lord Willis of Knaresborough Sir Michael Sterling FREng Chair, EngineeringUK Deputy Chairman Dr Paul Golby CBE FREng Dr Robert Hawley CBE DSc FRSE FREng Chair, Innovate UK Honorary Treasurer Phil Smith Tony Quigley Chair, Steering Board, UK Space Agency Honorary Secretary Post Vacant Patrick McHugh President, The Science Council Sir Tom Blundell FRS FMedSci CHIEF EXECUTIVE Dr Dougal Goodman OBE FREng *Associate Member

The Foundation for Science and Technology FST Journal redesigned in 2015 by IOP Publishing’s Design Studio, 10 Carlton House Terrace under the art direction of Andrew Giaquinto. London SW1Y 5AH IOP Publishing provides publications through which leading-edge scientific research is distributed worldwide and is central to the Tel: 020 7321 2220 Institute of Physics, a not-for-profit society. Email: [email protected] Neither the Foundation nor the Editor is responsible for the opinions of the contributors to FST Journal. Editor Sir John Enderby CBE FRS Production Editor Simon Napper © 2016 The Foundation for Science and Technology Sub Editor Judy McBride ISSN 1475-1704 Layout Simon Clarke Charity Number: 00274727 Company Number: 01327814 CONTENTS

journal fstVolume 21 Number 7 March 2016 THE COUNCIL OF THE FOUNDATION Inside front cover

journal The Journal of The Foundation for Science and Technology fstVolume 21 Number 7 March 2016 www.foundation.org.uk UPDATE Editorial Sir John Enderby: An effective forum for debate Historic and wide-ranging climate agreement concluded in Paris • Researchers boost public engagement 2 Re-engineering the Research Councils Sir Paul Nurse: Putting research at the heart of Government Professor Philip Nelson: Making the most of the opportunities Gareth Davies: Communicating clearly to Government and the community Bolstering research partnerships • New £20m UK–India fund backs research on food security • Guide to biological and toxin weapons Dame Ann Dowling: Creating the climate to excel at innovation Sir Peter Gregson: A successful framework for innovation and collaboration Eric Hawthorn: Helping smaller businesses engage with universities Closing the UK/US productivity gap Serious mental illness linked to early death What role does the EU play in UK research? UK faces Dr Ruth McKernan: The role of innovation in boosting productivity • • • Professor Jonathan Haskel: Rebooting productivity policy Tony Harper: The importance of collaboration Meeting Scotland’s energy challenge Phil Boswell: The benefi ts of renewable energy an electricity generation crisis Harnessing the potential of big data UK could lead in forensic­ science Iain Conn: Scotland’s position in the energy market • • Gary Haywood: A role for shale gas Professor Rebecca Lunn: Balancing our energy portfolio e future of the Arctic Lord Teverson: Responding to a changing Arctic Jane Rumble: Increasing our engagement Dame Julia Slingo: Charting the changes in the Arctic ecosystem EDITORIAL An effective forum for debate Sir John Enderby 4

SPENDING REVIEW Balancing sound public finances and great public services 6

RE-ENGINEERING THE RESEARCH COUNCILS Putting research at the heart of Government Sir Paul Nurse 7 Making the most of the opportunities Professor Philip Nelson 10 Communicating clearly to Government and the community Gareth Davies 12

BOLSTERING RESEARCH PARTNERSHIPS Creating the climate to excel at innovation Dame Ann Dowling 15 A successful framework for innovation and collaboration Sir Peter Gregson 17 Helping smaller businesses engage with universities Eric Hawthorn 19

CLOSING THE UK/US PRODUCTIVITY GAP The role of innovation in transforming productivity Dr Ruth McKernan 22 Rebooting productivity policy Professor Jonathan Haskel 25 The importance of collaboration Tony Harper 28

MEETING SCOTLAND’S ENERGY CHALLENGE The benefits of renewable energy Phil Boswell 31 Scotland’s position in the energy market Iain Conn 33 A role for shale gas Gary Haywood 34 Balancing our energy portfolio Professor Rebecca Lunn 36

THE FUTURE OF THE ARCTIC Responding to a changing Arctic Lord Teverson 40 Increasing our engagement Jane Rumble 42 Charting the changes in the Arctic ecosystem Dame Julia Slingo 44

EVENTS Foundation events held since 31 November 2013 47

fst journal www.foundation.org.uk March 2016, Volume 21(7) 1 UPDATE

Harnessing the Serious mental illness linked to early death potential of big data Research led by the RSA Open Public Services Network (OPSN) and Mind The UK has an enormous opportunity to has uncovered new information on the reap major benefit as it evolves into a data- degree to which local areas are meeting enabled economy, but must implement the physical health needs of people best practice now, especially in systems with serious mental health illnesses engineering, to maximise productivity (SMI). People with SMI are less likely to and minimise security risks, according be sent for crucial physical health tests: to a report from the Royal Academy 6% less likely to have blood pressure of Engineering and the Institution of tests, 9% less likely to have a screen for Engineering and Technology. cervical cancer and 15% less likely to Connecting data: driving productivity have a cholesterol check. and innovation, says that harnessing the A new composite measure produced power of data analytics – big data – and by the RSA OPSN network has identified the message on mental health: From linking key datasets reliably in real time 18 areas that have a statistically significant public data to pubic information, the has immense potential to drive innova- difference between tests for people with RSA’s Open Public Service network tion and enhance UK productivity, which SMI and the whole population. These explores this and three other key ques- is currently lagging 17% behind the aver- data shed new light on the fact that people tions to map the difference between the age across the G7 economies. However, experiencing serious mental health ill- total population and people with seri- good practice is currently not widespread nesses are more likely to die younger. ous mental health conditions. or consistent enough across and between In an accompanying report, Getting www.thersa.org/mentalhealth-report each sector of the economy. www.raeng.org.uk/news/news- What role does the EU play in UK research? releases/2015/november/uk-companies- in-danger-of-missing-major-opportunit The Royal Society has published the first informing the debate ahead of the UK’s of three evidence-based briefing reports in-or-out EU referendum, due before the UK could lead in about the role that the European Union end of 2017. The following two briefing (EU) plays in UK research. reports will explore the influence of the forensic science UK research and the European Union: European Union on researcher mobility The role of the EU in funding UK research and international collaboration, and the The UK could become the world leader brings together the most up-to-date facts influence of EU regulation and policy on in forensic science, Sir Mark Walport, and figures about the finances, while also research in the UK. Government Chief Scientific Adviser, clearly outlining how EU research fund- www.royalsociety.org/topics-policy/ says in his themed annual report, ing works in the UK. projects/uk-research-and-european- Forensic science and beyond: authenticity, The report is intended to play a part in union provenance and assurance. The UK has a long-standing reputa- UK faces an electricity generation crisis tion for being at the forefront of forensic science innovations, including develop- The UK Government’s policy to close decommissioning, leaving a significant ing DNA fingerprinting and profiling. all coal-fired power stations by 2025, gap to be filled. But the power of analytical science and combined with the retirement of the According to the report, the country its many applications has the potential majority of the UK’s ageing nuclear fleet has neither the resources nor enough peo- to deliver benefits to society that go far and growing electricity demand will ple with the right skills to build this many beyond the criminal justice system. leave the UK facing a 40-55% electricity power stations in time. It is already too The report draws on evidence provid- supply gap, according to a report by the late for any nuclear reactors to be planned ed by experts in several fields. The review Institution of Mechanical Engineers. and built by the coal ‘shut-off’ target of starts with forensics – the use of analytical The Engineering the UK Electricity 2025, other than Hinkley Point C. science to assist the courts – but then moves Gap report claims that plans to plug the The report also highlights that a great- on to explore the many ways in which we gap by building Combined Cycle Gas er reliance on interconnectors to import can use analytical scientific tools, combined Turbine (CCGT) plants are unrealistic, electricity from Europe and Scandinavia with the approaches and skills of forensic as the UK would need to build about 30 is likely to lead to higher electricity costs scientists, to assure the authenticity and new CCGT plants in less than 10 years. and less energy security. provenance of products and services. The UK has built just four CCGTs in www.imeche.org/docs/default-source/ www.gov.uk/government/publications/ the past 10 years. In addition, in 2005, position-statements-energy/imeche-ps- forensic-science-and-beyond some 20 nuclear sites were listed for electricity-gap.pdf

2 March 2016, Volume 21(7) fst journal www.foundation.org.uk UPDATE

Historic and wide-ranging climate agreement concluded in Paris An historic agreement to combat tries and the most vulnerable people climate change and unleash actions possible, in line with their own national and investment towards a low carbon, objectives. resilient and sustainable future was “The Paris Agreement allows each agreed by 195 nations in Paris in delegation and group of countries to go December. The Paris Agreement for back home with their heads held high,” the first time brings all nations into a said Laurent Fabius, President of the common cause based on their historic, Conference of the Parties (COP 21) UN current and future responsibilities. Climate change conference and French The universal agreement’s main aim Foreign Minister. “Our collective effort is to keep a global temperature rise this is worth more than the sum of our indi- century well below 2 °C and to drive vidual effort. Our responsibility to his- efforts to limit the temperature increase tory is immense,” he added. even further to 1.5 °C above pre-indus- Christiana Figueres, Executive Sec- trial levels.­ The 1.5 °C limit is a signifi- retary of the UN Framework Conven- cantly safer defence line against the worst tion on Climate Change (UNFCCC), impacts of a changing climate. To reach these goals, the United said: “It is an agreement of long-term Additionally, the agreement aims to Nations says that appropriate financial vision, for we have to turn this agree- strengthen the ability to deal with the flows will be put in place, thus making ment into an engine of safe growth.” impacts of climate change. stronger action by developing coun- www.cop21paris.org Researchers boost public engagement New £20m UK–India Eight out of 10 (82%) researchers their role (52%, against 37% of STEM). fund backs research carried out at least one form of public However, since the last study into engagement in the past year, according this area in 2006, the number of STEM on food security to a new study commissioned by a researchers who value public engage- A £20 million UK–India fund has been consortium of 15 UK research funders, ment as a core component of their role created to support research that addresses including the Research Councils. has risen from 28% to 37%. The propor- critical food security challenges. The study – Factors affecting public tion of STEM researchers who would like Four Virtual Joint Centres in Agricul- engagement by researchers – found that to engage more with the public has also tural Nitrogen will be established between participation in public engagement was increased from 45% to 53% and they also leading UK and Indian researchers to higher among researchers in the arts, feel better equipped to engage with the deliver innovative research over the next humanities and social sciences (AHSS) public than they did in 2006 (up from three years, which will contribute to the at 88%, than in science, technology, engi- 51% to 63%). sustainable use of nitrogen fertiliser in neering and mathematics (STEM) at www.wellcome.ac.uk/About-us/ Indian agriculture. 78%. AHSS researchers were also more Publications/Reports/Public- This represents a £10 million invest- likely to value it as a core component of engagement/WTP060031.htm ment from the Newton-Bhabha fund, delivered in partnership by the Biotech- Guide to biological and toxin weapons nology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC), the Natural Environ- IAP (the global network of science Biosciences are developing at an ment Research Council (NERC) and academies) has published, in partnership unprecedented rate and the move from the Department of Biotechnology India with the Royal Society, the US National ‘concept’ to ‘application’ is becoming (DBT). This collaboration will help meet Academy of Sciences and the Polish ever simpler, with costs continuing to the challenge of sustainably producing Academy of Science, a review of scientific fall. This has both positive and negative enough food for a growing population and technological developments that implications for the BWC. Technologi- whilst reducing pollution and greenhouse have implications for the UN Biological cal barriers to acquiring and using a bio­ gas emissions. and Toxin Weapons Convention (BWC). logical weapon have been significantly The value of joint investment in UK-In- This is to ensure that the most up-to- eroded since the Seventh Review Con- dia research has grown from less than a date scientific advice in the area of ference (2011). The ‘bio-economy’ has million in 2008 to now over £200 million, biosciences is available to assist policy grown and is therefore itself a potential demonstrating the Research Councils’ makers in preparing for the 8th BWC target for attack. commitment to working towards the goal Review Conference, which takes place royalsociety.org/topics-policy/projects/ of making the UK India’s partner of choice in December 2016. biological-toxin-weapons-convention for research collaboration.

fst journal www.foundation.org.uk March 2016, Volume 21(7) 3 EDITORIAL An effective forum for debate John Enderby

s this is my last editorial before handing billion people at risk, some 80% of them living in over the Journal to my successor, I just 17 countries. In short, and as the Gener- thought it might be interesting to look al-Secretary recognises, while the global figures backA at some of the issues I was able to raise in my look promising, the situation for the least-devel- capacity as Editor. oped countries remains problematic. In the November 2010 issue, I wrote about the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). These Sustainable Development Goals Professor Sir John Enderby were a result of a special World Summit held in A successor programme to the MDGs was agreed CBE FRS is the Editor of FST 2000. To quote from the editorial: “With only five at a meeting of the UN in September 2015. It will Journal. He was Professor of years left until the 2015 deadline, UN Secre- build on the lessons learnt and is now referred to Physics at the University of tary-General Ban Ki-moon called on world lead- as the Sustainable Development Goals. Several Bristol from 1976 to 1996. He was elected a Fellow of ers to accelerate progress in order to achieve the new goals have been added to the existing ones. The Royal Society in 1985 for eight anti-poverty goals.” How well has the inter- These include efforts to: his pioneering studies into national community performed since 2010? • reduce inequality within and among the structure and properties In writing his foreword to the final MDG countries; of liquids and amorphous materials. He served as a Report (2015), Ban Ki-moon states that this • make cities and human settlements inclusive, Vice-President of The Royal ­initiative has produced “the most successful safe, resilient and sustainable; Society from 1999 to 2004. anti-poverty movement in history”. He goes on • ensure sustainable consumption and One of his responsibilities to say that for all the remarkable gains, progress production patterns; was the Society’s publishing activities. Sir John was has been uneven and that the world’s poor • take urgent action to combat climate change President of the Institute of remain concentrated in some parts of the world. and its impacts; Physics in 2004. He is now a In terms of the indicators of success, consider • conserve and use the oceans, seas and marine consultant to IOP Publishing. just three of the goals as illustrations of the resources for sustainable development; ­problems that remain. • promote peaceful and inclusive societies for Goal 1 was to eradicate extreme poverty and sustainable development, provide access to hunger. Globally, the figures are impressive. justice for all and build effective, accountable Extreme poverty has declined significantly over and inclusive institutions at all levels. the past two decades. In 1990, nearly half the pop- ulation of the developing world lived on less than The Editor of FST Journal in 2030 might wish $1.25 a day. Today that proportion had dropped to review the progress of this ambitious pro- to 14%. However, over 800 million remain in gramme as well as the extent to which the original extreme poverty and a similar number of our MDGs have been achieved. ­fellow humans still suffer from hunger. Goal 2 aimed to reduce child mortality. Again, Open access publishing the global under-five mortality rate has declined As someone who has a long-standing interest in by more than half and now stands at 43 deaths per scientific publishing, I was very happy to write 1,000 live births. Nevertheless, in sub-Saharan (December 2012) an editorial on the Open Access Africa, the rate remains stubbornly high at 86 per (OA) model proposed in the Finch Report. Janet 1000, twice the global average. Finch and her colleagues came down in favour of Goal 6 aimed to combat HIV/Aids, malaria ‘Gold’ OA where authors (or their funders) pay an and other diseases. By June 2014, 13.6 million Article Processing Charge (APC) in order that the people living with HIV were receiving anti-viral article is available for all to read. therapy compared with only 800,000 in 2003. The There are huge variations in APCs and this global mortality rate for malaria has fallen since leads to difficult choices for both authors and 2000 by 58%. funders. According to Pinfield el al1, current Impressive as these figures are, HIV and APCs can vary from £82 to £5,280. Even within a malaria continue to be of concern. In 2013, there single publishing house, there are significant dif- were around 2.1 million cases of HIV infection ferences. For example, the highly regarded jour- and in 2015 alone, there were over 200 million nal Cell published by Elsevier charges $5,000. Yet cases of malaria with nearly half a million deaths. it levies just $500 for Case Studies in Structural Malaria is still endemic in 97 countries with 3.3 Engineering. As it is now generally accepted that

4 March 2016, Volume 21(7) fst journal www.foundation.org.uk EDITORIAL

the sums available for Gold OA are finite, some was the need to maintain a healthy and vibrant General Sir David sort of rationing is inevitable. community of scholars trained in the Arts. It Richards is quoted as The Royal Society of Chemistry’s ‘Gold for seemed to me obvious that before we embark on saying that the Gold’ is an interesting initiative. In essence, insti- interventions such as humanitarian aid, new insights gained tutions which sign up receive a number of vouch- medical therapies, or conflict resolution (invol­ through a series of ers to cover the APC (£1,600). The number of ving diplomacy, military action or both), a prop- short plays badged vouchers depends on the amount the institute er understanding of the economic, historical, under the title The pays in subscriptions to RSC journals. For exam- political, social and religious backgrounds is Great Game, which ple, a payment of £24,000 generates 15 vouchers. essential. Such understanding draws heavily on depicted the However, the distribution of these vouchers is left the skills of our colleagues in the Arts, Human- turbulent history of to an administrator within the subscribing insti- ities and Social Sciences. Afghanistan, would tution. Thus, there is a system of rationing which In 2006, during the Global War on Terrorism, have influenced his has to be carefully managed. a New York Times reporter went to Washington military decisions if One of the unforeseen consequences of the in an attempt to ascertain the extent to which he had seen them author-pays model has been a growth in so-called American officials understood the ideologies prior to his ‘predatory’ publishers, who produce counterfeit underpinning Islamist terrorism. The reporter deployment there. journals to exploit the open-access model in began with a simple question: could senior which the author pays. According to Professor counterterrorism officials identify which Jeffrey Beall, the growth in such publishers over groups were Sunnis and Shias and where they the past few years has been dramatic. He identi- tended to be located? fied 693 as potential, possible, or probable preda- Remarkably senior officials and lawmakers tory OA publishers in 2015 compared with 18 in had, according to the reporter “not a clue”. Sec- 2011. Beall also points out that well-known jour- tarian tensions between Sunnis and Shias are nals have been hijacked by predatory publishers. even more pronounced today than they were in The MIT Technology Review was a victim of this, 2006. The questions that the New York Times with authors being misled into thinking that the raised seven years ago remain highly relevant. APC they paid ensured publication in this high- ly-respected journal. A word of thanks Professor Beall is a librarian at the University It has been a great privilege editing the Journal of Colorado and is a long-standing critic of Gold and I thank all the contributors for their accep- OA. Defenders of the system, while applauding tance of copy deadlines and the minor editorial Beall’s work on predatory publishers, argue that changes made to their submissions. Special such fraudulent activities do not, in themselves, thanks are due to Simon Napper, the Production invalidate the overall benefits of properly funded, Editor who does much of the day-to-day work. free-to-read, high-quality journals. Over the years, he has been ably assisted by Judy McBride, Simon Clarke, Alison Gardiner, A place for the Arts James McQuat, Charles Wenz and Wendy Barn- An editorial published in February 2012 entitled aby. My colleague at IOP Publishing, Andrew ‘Arts, Humanities and Social Sciences must be Giaquinto and his team, did the most wonderful supported’ evoked considerable interest in the redesign of the journal (pro bono!) in order to wider community. I was inspired to write this reflect, in its appearance, the exceptionally high editorial by a remarkable statement made by quality of its contents. General Sir David Richards. He had seen a series Above all, I must thank our Chief Executive, of short plays badged under the title The Great Dr Dougal Goodman, for all his help and sup- Game which depicted the turbulent history of port. As Lord Selborne said at the recent Christ- Afghanistan. His regret was that he saw these mas event, Dougal is the Foundation of Science plays after being deployed to that troubled coun- and Technology. Such successes as the Journal try. Sir David is quoted as saying that the insights has had are due in large part to his excellent gained through this series of plays would have choice of speakers as well as his amazing powers influenced his military decisions. of persuasion, particularly in the ability to Arts and Humanities are, of course, of consid- acquire, free of charge, the services of former erable value in their own right. Great novels, ­Permanent Secretaries to undertake tasks such poetry, art, and theatre bring pleasure to count- as note-taking and to help in the identification of less millions. In terms of the UK, they contribute major issues in the debates. ☐ directly to the nation’s GDP as well as its balance of payments, particularly through tourism. 1. S Pinfield, J Salter and P Bath: http://eprints. However, the central theme in that editorial whiterose.ac.uk/83525 fst journal www.foundation.org.uk March 2016, Volume 21(7) 5 SPENDING REVIEW The Chancellor of the Exchequer, the Rt Hon George Osborne, presented his Autumn Statement, which included the results of the Spending Review, to Parliament on 25 November 2015. Balancing sound public finances and great public services

ddressing the House of Com- tech centres in Shropshire, York, Bed- Transport mons, the Chancellor said he fordshire and Edinburgh. Although the Department for Trans- could confirm that the four- He added that £75 million would go port’s operational budget will fall by yearA public spending plans he was set- to a transformation of the famous Cav- 37%, transport capital spending will ting out were forecast to deliver a sur- endish laboratories in Cambridge. increase by 50% to a total of £61 billion. plus, “so we don’t borrow forever and are In his speech, the Chancellor also This is to fund “the largest road invest- ready for whatever storms lie ahead”. announced he was setting aside “£12 bil- ment programme since the 1970s”. He argued that it was false to claim lion we promised for our Local Growth This will mean that the construction that Britain had to choose between Fund and I am announcing the creation of HS2 to link the Northern Powerhouse sound public finances and great public of 26 new or extended Enterprise Zones, to the South can begin. The electrifi­ services. “If you are bold with your including 15 zones in towns and rural cation of lines such as the Trans-Pen- reforms you can have both,” he said. areas from Carlisle to Dorset to Ipswich”. nine, Midland Main Line and Great To achieve the desired surplus, Western Railway can also go ahead. though, the Spending Review has result- Investing in long term ed in cuts in virtually every Depart­ Energy and climate change mental budget, but a number of the economic infrastructure Investing in long-term economic infra- ­programmes they run have either been was a goal of this Spending structure was a goal of this Spending protected or in some cases augmented. Review, with a doubling of Review, he said, and “there is no more important infrastructure than energy”. Business spending on energy The Chancellor announced a dou- In his speech, the Chancellor committed research. Spending on bling of spending on energy research, the Government to the same level of Catapult centres will also with a major commitment to small, ­support for aerospace and automotive modular nuclear reactors. In addition, industries, not just for the next five years increase with protection for the Government was supporting the but for the next decade. the cash support given ­creation of the shale gas industry by ☐ Spending on Catapult centres will through Innovate UK. ensuring that communities benefit from also increase. He also promised to pro- a Shale Wealth Fund, which could be tect the cash support given through worth up to £1 billion. Support for Innovate UK by offering £165 million of The National Health Service low-carbon electricity and renewables new loans to companies instead of In regard to health, he said that patients will more than double, he added. grants. He noted that “France has suc- will see more than £5 billion of health The development and sale of Ultra cessfully done this for years.” research, in everything from genomes Low Emission Vehicles will continue to be The Chancellor argued that “in the to anti-microbial resistance, a new supported – but in light of the slower than modern world one of the best ways you Dementia Institute and a new, world- expected introduction of more rigorous can back business is by backing science. class public health facility in Harlow. EU emissions testing, the Government is That’s why in the last Parliament, I pro- He acknowledged that one part of our to delay the removal of the diesel supple- tected the resource budget for science in NHS had been neglected for too long – ment from company cars until 2021. cash terms. In this Parliament I’m pro- mental health (a subject addressed on Mr Osborne reminded MPs of the tecting it in real terms so it rises to £4.7 several occasions by the Foundation for UK’s support for international efforts billion. That’s £500 million more by the Science and Technology). He promised to tackle climate change, including the end of the decade – alongside £6.9 billion £600 million in additional funding – Paris COP21 talks which were to take in the capital budget too.” meaning that by 2020 significantly more place the following week. The Govern- He reminded his audience that the people would have access to talking ther- ment would, he said, increase support Government is funding the new Royce apies, perinatal mental health services, for climate finance by 50% over the next Institute in Manchester, and new agri- and crisis care. five years. ☐

6 March 2016, Volume 21(7) fst journal www.foundation.org.uk RESEARCH COUNCILS The Government invited Sir Paul Nurse to undertake a review of the Research Councils, to explore how they can support research most effectively. His report was debated at a meeting of the Foundation for Science and Technology on 12 January 2016.

Putting research at the heart of Government

Paul Nurse

as producing knowledge that can be developed SUMMARY into useful applications. It also leads to, for ­example, a better quality of life, better public • The Research Councils deliver high-quality ­services, improving health and protection of the research in a cost-effective way. environment. • However, they need to develop further to Decisions on what research to carry out should maintain their leading role in today’s world. be made by those who are expert in that particular • Research Councils UK should, as ‘Research UK’, area – this underpins Haldane’s 1918 Principle. Sir Paul Nurse FRS FMedSci take on a strategic role for the whole research Research requires high-quality peer review. led the Review of the community. An effective discovery and translational Research Councils. Sir • Research UK would advise Government on research agenda requires a culture that gives Paul is a geneticist and cell policy for science. biologist who has worked ­freedom to the individuals trying to generate on how the eukaryotic cell • A separate ministerial committee could provide knowledge, alongside a culture that captures cycle is controlled and a platform for high-level interaction between knowledge to turn into applications. how cell shape and cell Government and the research community. dimensions are determined. He is Director of the Francis The Research Councils Crick Institute in London, The starting point for the Review was that the and has served as President he goal of the Review1 was to investigate Research Councils have done extremely well over of the Royal Society, how the Research Councils could support many years. They are admired throughout the Chief Executive of Cancer Research UK and President research in the most effective ways – world. They have achieved their objectives very of Rockefeller University. He Tsecuring excellence, promoting collaboration and efficiently. They deliver high-quality research in a shared the 2001 Nobel Prize developing agility to best contribute to sustain- very cost-effective way. They promote good in Physiology or Medicine. able growth. research training. They contribute to our economy. An advisory group was established which They engage with the public and provide advice. ­covered the breadth of UK research endeavour. We Yet, in my view, Research Councils are over- met regularly for much of last year. A second refer- stretched. They have too many things to do. There ence group, which was consulted on particular needs to be more focus on strategic thinking. questions, had international reach. So, unusually They need to have the time to be leaders in their for a Government review, we had access to scien- community. They also need to be better at tists familiar with research in the USA, in Germany addressing cross-cutting, multi-disciplinary and New Zealand. Within these two groups there research issues – especially those concerned with were four Nobel laureates. emergencies. Although the review was aimed primarily at There is a need to establish budget-setting science, it recognised that research covers all between Councils, but currently no clear way of the academic disciplines, not only the natural choosing between competing demands. ­sciences but the social sciences, the arts and the A single, unified, strong voice is needed in humanities. The Review covers the whole field of ­academic endeavour. Research Councils are overstretched. They have Why do research? To gain and generate knowledge of the natural world and of ourselves. too many things to do. They need to have the time It enhances our culture and civilisation, as well to be leaders in their community. fst journal www.foundation.org.uk March 2016, Volume 21(7) 7 RESEARCH COUNCILS

speaking to Government about science. Having to think how best to engage with Europe as it pro- seven Research Councils with different views and vides the critical mass to increase our agility. A voices is not the best way to do that. point which is often missed is that if we increase Some of the issues identified in the Review can our mobility across Europe then we have a bigger be dealt with straightforwardly, particularly critical mass, closer to that of the USA. those concerned with ways of working, focussing There is a responsibility to horizon scan across more on operational detail. the world, not simply for new applications but for any new developments so that we are not left High-quality peer review behind. This responsibility I have put with the High-quality peer review of research is crucial. Research Councils. There has to be a rapid grant-awarding process and All of this requires high-quality leadership – I a transparent process that reports outcomes. cannot emphasise this enough. Those in senior There has to be diversity across the board. Differ- positions should not simply be good managers, ent ways of supporting research have to be found they need to be leaders in science. that cover research at all levels – pilot level, project Some of the necessary changes can only be level, programme level or major strategic level. delivered if there is a reform of governance and Early-stage career researchers must get sup- structures. This is to strengthen strategic thinking port early. The entry point, the age at which inde- across the board, as well as within individual pendence is achieved, is gradually increasing, to a Research Councils, and in order to move science point where the most creative period may be lost. closer to the heart of Government. Greater shar- We have to be able to promote youth, although ing of best practice is required across the organi- always remembering those of more advanced age sations, as well as better coordination in general still have contributions to make as well! across the research landscape. Flexible doctoral programmes need to be To achieve this, the Review proposes two developed, so that people are not excluded just major changes. The first is at the level of research because they are in the wrong place at the wrong councils and involves new cross-council arrange- time. In general, systems which are too inflexible ments. The second concerns new cross-Govern- degenerate. mental arrangements. Good linkages must be maintained across the entire research community. That means there Research UK needs to be time to make and foster connections. The key to the first change is the evolution of There has to be an appropriate balance between Research Councils UK (RCUK) into a formal reporting to BIS and being researchers. organisation which speaks with a strengthened Finally, invest in excellence wherever it is and unified voice about science to Government. found. Sometimes new ideas pop up outside of It should also take responsibility for cross-coun- the great academic centres and that aspect of cil agendas and strategy. That will simplify diversity should be recognised too. operational issues and reduce the administra- tive burden. The wider landscape I have suggested a change of name to ‘Research How should the Higher Education Council for UK’ to indicate both that its responsibilities are England (HEFCE) and its dual-support system heavily concerned with the Research Councils, interact with the Research Councils? The chari- but also that it has wider responsibilities to the table research sector is also vital. It is providing research community. The Chief Executive of £1.5 billion to the life sciences every year. Research UK should be the accounting officer col- Then there is Government-funded research in lectively for all the Research Councils and the its own Departments which is often not well-con- objective there is to reduce the administrative bur- nected to the whole research endeavour. Com- den on the individual bodies. mercial research is more difficult to assess because Research UK will report to a single oversight to some extent it is confidential. Board and the Chief Executive should be a distin- Finally, there is international research. We are guished scientist who is not only managerially an island, but we should not be isolated – we have effective, but is also a leader – and seen to be a leader. The oversight Board should have an inde- Some of the necessary changes can only be pendent Chair with members appointed by Min- delivered if there is a reform of governance and isters and would report to the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills (BIS). structures to strengthen strategic thinking Board membership would include indepen- across the board. dent, non-executives who are scientific leaders

8 March 2016, Volume 21(7) fst journal www.foundation.org.uk RESEARCH COUNCILS familiar with the research landscape. That board A single data management system would provide should include the BIS Director-General, who would link with other Government Department a one-stop mechanism for enquiries about all UK research, and with the Government Chief Scien- science research activities. tific Adviser (GCSA). Depending on the final structures, there could be representation from The creation of Research UK has implications HEFCE and Innovate UK, although this may be for individual Research Councils, but it is crucial more appropriate at the executive level. that they maintain their present integrity, even The Executive Committee, supported by a rel- though they will no longer have accounting offi- atively small administrative core, would be chaired cers. They must remain disciplined and focussed, by the Chief Executive, would have all seven heads close to their research communities. They will of the Research Councils as well as the research have to maintain budgetary control and run an functions of HEFCE and of Innovate UK. effective research endeavour, maintaining a capa- Crucially, the Board and the Executive Com- bility to employ researchers and facilities. One mittee of Research UK would have responsibility way of maintaining this structure would be to keep for advising government on policy for science. the Royal Charters. This is different from the role of the GCSA who provides scientific input on policy. Until now we Cross-Government structures have not had a clear route for advising on policy The second major recommendation is the estab- for science. lishment of a new cross-Government arrange- The organisation would work through a single ment that will put science more squarely at the Chief Operating Officer who would be responsi- heart of Government. ble for delivering activities across the Research Responsibility for the research effort currently Councils. Having a single person in this role will sits with Ministers in BIS. However, other Depart- increase efficiency. ments and Ministers need to be engaged with the A single data management system would pro- research community as well. Science impinges on vide a one-stop mechanism for enquiries about all all aspects of our lives and on all aspects of Gov- UK science research activities and how they can be ernment operations. There is a need to under- accessed. So a company, for example, could stand and accelerate the impacts of science and request information about a topic of interest and it technology on the work of Government and this will be given details of research going on, how it necessitates a greater engagement between poli- can be accessed, what grants might be available, cy-makers and the research community. etc. It is known that companies find it difficult to While Research UK provides a strong scientif- penetrate the present complexity, so this approach ic voice to Government, a new Ministerial com- would simplify the process. mittee will provide high level, political interaction Cross-cutting research would be supported between experts and scientists on the one hand through a common research fund. This would and our elected political representatives on the deal with multi-disciplinary issues, which are other. It will help the Government respond to new always difficult to deliver, such as emergencies and scientific research and disruptive technologies, as cross-cutting societal needs. This facility would well as maintaining Government’s overall capacity also provide a mechanism to discuss any realloca- for research. It could be chaired by a senior Min- tion of budget from one Research Council to ister who has a cross-cutting Cabinet perspective, another: at the moment there is no place to discuss with the Minister for Universities and Science as this. The individual Councils still need to control well as other Ministers who have responsibility for their own funding in order to do their job, but delivering the science agenda as members of the some proportion of money should be vested at this committee. Relevant senior officials would also higher level. need to be in attendance. Research UK is where research strategy can be The Council of Science and Technology, which generated, so as to produce a strong, common at the moment advises the Cabinet and the Prime position for interaction with Government. That is Minister on science issues, could form an inde- a really crucial role for this new body. pendent advisory group for such a Ministerial Overall responsibility for ethics and conduct in committee. This would add a valuable additional science would also be part of its remit. As the resource for ensuring a successful UK research House of Lords noted some 15 years ago, scientists endeavour. ☐ have to earn their licence to operate. That means we have to conduct science in a proper manner – 1. www.gov.uk/government/publications/nurse- and be seen to do so. review-of-research-councils-recommendations fst journal www.foundation.org.uk March 2016, Volume 21(7) 9 RESEARCH COUNCILS Exploiting the opportunities

Philip Nelson

he Research Councils, taken together, constitute a large undertaking. Each of SUMMARY the Councils is established by Royal Char- Tter. Altogether, there are about 770 staff involved • The Research Councils deliver world-class in administering the operation, including the pro- research extremely cost-effectively cessing of grants applications, and a further 450 • The current framework of seven Research Councils staff supporting the delivery of programmes. with their own remits should be retained Professor Philip Nelson There are also about 8,000 staff in a range of insti- • RCUK supports moves to a more integrated FREng is Chair of the RCUK tutes directly involved in undertaking research. voice for science to government Executive Group and Chief Changes should be carefully thought through Executive of the Engineering Research Councils UK (RCUK) is the strategic • and Physical Sciences partnership between the seven Research Coun- and should not stifle innovation Research Council (EPSRC). cils. Each Council is a partner organisation of the • The Research Councils engage closely with their He previously served from Department for Business, Innovation and Skills own communities and those links need to be 2005-2013 as Pro Vice- protected in any new structure Chancellor of the University (BIS). A number of the Councils run institutes, of Southampton, with such as MRC’s Laboratory for Molecular Biology particular responsibility for and NERC’s National Oceanographic Centre. Research and Enterprise. There are many other centres supported by the the economy – it is critical for the future of the He also served as Director of the University’s Institute Councils. For example, the EPSRC has 115 cen- country that we can continue that very strong pro- of Sound and Vibration tres for doctoral training. gramme of doctoral training. Research and Director of Together, the Research Councils had a budget In my career I have seen significant progress in the Rolls-Royce University of £3 billion in 2015. About 2,500 businesses are supporting innovation, ensuring that we turn great Technology Centre in Gas Turbine Noise. collaborating with the Councils at any one time, science into economic wealth, not only in tradition- 1,000 of which are SMEs. The Research Councils al industries but right across the creative sector too. between them, for example, support around Impacts are wide-ranging, from flood prediction 30,000 researchers at any one time. to policy alleviation. Some, 6,679 case studies were The UK does not spend as much on R&D as submitted to the Research Excellence Framework many of its competitors. Having said that, the (REF) in 2014. These illustrated the benefits provid- Government showed strong support for science ed to the economy, society, culture, public policy and in the last parliament and we remain grateful for services, the environment and quality of life. the knowledge that our allocations will go up, in EPSRC carried out a study of 1,226 case studies real terms, over the next five years. submitted to the REF. The £7.8 billion spend during 1993-2013 was associated with £80 billion A focus on excellence of economic activity during the period 2008-2013. Productivity is very high in terms of citations pro- Investment in science does produce economic ben- duced per pound spent – we outpace the rest of the efits in addition to its broader societal impacts. world on that basis- and with 1% of the world’s The Research Councils have an increasingly population we produce 16% of its most highly-cit- important international role, too. We have offices ed papers. So UK research is both productive and in Brussels, Beijing, Washington and Delhi: again of high quality and this, in no small measure, is we are trying to make connections across the world due to the past work of the Research Councils. in order to leverage our really strong science base. The whole ethos of RCUK is excellence with This is still more important following the announce- impact. History shows that some of the greatest dis- ment of the Global Challenges Fund by the Chan- coveries have come from letting talented research- cellor in the Autumn Statement, through which we ers follow their intuition. At the same time, there will help research in developing nations that meet are societal challenges we must also address. We official development assistance (ODA) criteria. must get the balance right between supporting basic The Research Councils engaged fully with the research and responding to society’s challenges. Review. There were three meetings between Sir Developing skills, leadership and infrastruc- Paul and the Research Council Chief Executives. ture is absolutely critical. We are providing We also made a number of points direct to the Sci- PhD-qualified individuals to build the success of ence Minister, Jo Johnson. We argued that retain-

10 March 2016, Volume 21(7) fst journal www.foundation.org.uk RESEARCH COUNCILS ing our existing seven, strong, science and busi- in that direction. But we have to ensure that such Good, inter- ness-facing identities was important. Quite how changes do not stifle innovation. Research Coun- disciplinary research we do that is a matter for discussion, but the prin- cils have been responsible for a number of success- is not possible ciple is very important. ful innovations and that should continue. No-one without strong core We felt the Haldane Principle was also critical wants to end up with a plethora of incomprehensi- disciplines – it is as and we referenced the 2010 Government state- ble schemes, but nor should new approaches be simple as that. ment of this which is clear and helpful. It is also overlooked. We should also be wary of increased very important to have clearly delegated authori- bureaucracy through the imposition of another ty and accountability for the independent man- layer that just adds more complexity. agement of research funding, for transparency We have already acknowledged the need to sup- and pre-determined, multi-year investment. port multi-disciplinary research more effectively, I have not met anyone who does not think the but this should not be at the expense of our core dual support system is a good thing and we also disciplines. Good, inter-disciplinary research is emphasised that in the letter to the Minister. Peer not possible without strong core disciplines. review is very important too and is central to our Long-term budgeting, planning and invest- effective operation. ment, flexibility and agility – all of these things go The Chief Executives of the Research Councils with an allocated budget. So we need to be clear had already begun an initiative called ‘Research about the degree to which the budgets of different Councils Together’, focussed on delivering oper- Research Councils will be fixed. ational efficiency, with core ‘common operations’ like finance, HR and IT. Issues of governance While certain things remain properly associ- The Review mentioned strengthened Research ated with each Council, there are also some other Council leadership: it is difficult to disagree, but we potential areas which could be pooled. This pro- should not simply discard the existing strong gov- cess is underway and will be delivered irrespec- ernance arrangements. The Councils are dispens- tive of any other decisions. ing large amounts of public money, so it is import- We completely accept we need to increase our ant to be confident they remain well-governed. capability to fund multi-disciplinary research as Better coordination with other stakeholders science progresses, although there are already across the research landscape, including Innovate many examples of successful initiatives. UK and HEFCE, is certainly desirable. We Our Royal Charters define the legal personality already have good relationships with them, but of our organisations. Research Councils are corpo- perhaps the formal structures could be improved rate bodies whose council members have corporate and further thinking is required here. responsibility, rather like the directors of a compa- With regard to HEFCE, the separation between ny. So we have very strong governance. The council research and teaching needs to be considered. members are eminent individuals who contribute Innovate UK has a mission beyond the higher edu- enormously to the success of the organisation. cation system, so let’s not forget that either. Their There is also a very large, wider community mission is to stimulate growth across the economy, that contributes to the operation of the Councils and in doing so to work with industry and business. – those who do peer review, and those who sit on There is a risk that putting them in the same family strategic advisory networks, etc. EPSRC for could result in a loss of focus on their core function. example has an estimated community of 10,000 Finally, of course, big changes can sometimes investigators and it is vital that they are represent- threaten business continuity so such changes have ed in advisory networks. to be managed extremely carefully. That is to The Review seeks to give a more unified, stra- ensure that the process and the goals are thought tegic voice to the Councils. But there is still much through in detail in order to mitigate any risk. to be discussed and decided in terms of the detail. There must be a proper appraisal of the options For example, there is a possibility of having Inno- in terms of the proposed new governance struc- vate UK as part of this structure, or the quality-re- tures. This involves considering the alternatives – lated (QR) part of HEFCE. Many things have yet what is legally possible – and assessing these options to be finalised. so as to ensure that current excellence is not inad- There are, undoubtedly, significant opportuni- vertently compromised by organisational change. ties and some of these are set out in Section 4 of the Our policies are informed through engagement Review. Stronger strategic thinking offers better with stakeholder communities. We are all comfort- engagement with Government and there are pro- able about the way our missions develop through posals for operational policies that are more effec- conversations with those communities. We must tive, simplified and common. We support moves not lose that input. ☐ fst journal www.foundation.org.uk March 2016, Volume 21(7) 11 RESEARCH COUNCILS Communicating clearly to Government and the community

Gareth Davies

n Government, the fundamental importance of science, both as a public good and of itself, SUMMARY as well as its economic and social impact, is Inow broadly accepted. Support come from the • The importance of science is recognised across highest levels, right across Government, both Government. politically and among officials. • The Government welcomes the Nurse Review. Following the Comprehensive Spending • Government needs to hear a strong, single voice Gareth Davies is Director Review, there is confidence on the next five years’ of science. General, Business and funding, which gives a base for implementing • Balancing funding for multi-disciplinary societal Science at the Department some of the changes set out in Sir Paul Nurse’s challenges with discovery research in separate of Business, Innovation and Review of the Research Councils. sector will be a key role for the new overall Skills. He was previously research body. the Executive Director and The Government has welcomed the Review. It Chief Economist in the continues the legacy of the Drayton and Walde- • The appointment of Chief Scientific Advisers to Cabinet Office, responsible grave Reviews. all Government Departments is an important for civil society, innovation step forward. and analysis. Over the last In a time when there is so much change in the decade he has worked in system, it is important to emphasis what is not Downing Street as the Prime changing. The UK has a world-class science sys- Minister’s lead adviser on tem. No one in Whitehall doubts that. The pro- Implementing change welfare reform, and has been Head of the Prime Minister’s posed changes are about building upon that What has surprised me over the last 12 months is Strategy Unit. which is why the focus on excellence is so import- the amount of time that eminent scientists are ant. Therein lies the importance of the Haldane spending on non-scientific issues. Time that is Principle, our system of dual-support and peer being spent on the grant processes, around the review. While the number of citations per pound reporting back to BIS, the natural governance sys- invested is not a perfect indicator, it does give a tems required of a publicly-accountable body – good indication of the quality and the impact of these can be very onerous. It seems crazy to bring our research. together leading scientists and ask them to spend One of the essential elements of our research time worrying about buildings, IT systems and funding is the mechanism of dual support. I shared services. This is not an effective use of their know of no debate, internally or externally, about time. That is something that needs to change. moving away from this and the more certainty we can provide on this, the better. A unified view The critical importance of blue skies, discov- One of the things I have found hardest to do in the ery research is recognised across the system as is last year is to be able to advise Ministers on the the balance between quality-related (QR) support relative strengths and weaknesses of the UK sci- and the Research Councils’ more direct funding. entific endeavour in different fields and disci- So the work of implementation during the next plines. There is a huge amount of data and it is year or two will make sure the touchstones build very difficult to bring that together to achieve a on the existing foundations of the UK’s world- consistent, coherent feel to the wealth of public- class system. ly-funded research, let alone the charity-funded The Government also recognises that subject research and the R&D spend that goes on in busi- experts should be responsible for funding allo­ nesses. It is a patchwork vision at best and more cations within their subject disciplines. Here needs to be done to bring this all together. With we recognise the way Research Councils Research UK we may be able to tackle this. have been able to bring together world-class In relation to multi-disciplinary work we ­re­searchers, getting them to commit time to know there is a gap. Yet, it cannot simply be both peer review and in determining where best resourced at the expense of sectoral expertise on to allocate budgets. basic research. Societal challenges like obesity,

12 March 2016, Volume 21(7) fst journal www.foundation.org.uk RESEARCH COUNCILS terror and climate change touch on the physical growth which will continue to fund scientific There is a strong case sciences, behavioural sciences, economic history, endeavour in years to come. However, that is only for a single focus for etc. We need the specialist knowledge, but also part of Innovate UK’s work and its wider role in research funding in the ability to bring all the insights together and encouraging collaboration between businesses this country, with a focus them on these big scientific and societal must also be safeguarded. single understanding issues – which is, after all, the reason taxpayers are Of particular importance is how to balance of the research funding public science. common needs and the benefits of standardisa- landscape and where There is a ‘value for money’ question for taxpay- tion on the one hand with the special needs of the research priorities ers. The UK’s economic position has meant cuts on individual disciplines on the other. How do we should be. public spending for the last five years and further ensure the continuing success of some of our fiscal prudence over the next 10. I keep reminding incredibly prolific institutes, for example? my colleagues in BIS that we are only half way through parts of the programme. Obviously we A strong scientific voice would always like to have more money for science I also support the idea of a strong voice of science and scientific research, but it is beholden upon us to in Whitehall. I think in some ways it is a strength ensure best value for money from that research. I rather than a weakness that the interest in science have touched on some of the global challenges we is dispersed across Whitehall. To confine its face, but even within this country, research needs to influence to one Department would be a weak- address priorities like flood defence and resilience. ness. The fact that we now have strong Chief Sci- entists in all Whitehall Departments is a powerful Moving forward step forwards and the dialogue between the Chief The Government recognises the benefits of a Scientific Advisers and the Research Council net- ­single, strong voice for science to Ministers in work will ensure there is a strong, open dialogue Whitehall, but also one that can make the case for between the research communities and the scien- science to taxpayers and the wider community – tific communities in Whitehall. as well as internationally. One area where more work is needed is While it is important to hear from the individ- ­connecting scientific endeavour into the policy-­ ual sectors, a strong, single voice can cut through making community of Whitehall. This happens the sometimes competing different voices of the in some areas, but not strongly enough in my seven communities. That will be extremely help- view. Whitehall needs to be able to access the ful in making a case to Whitehall. Frankly, there excellent world-class research we know is already are difficult messages that Ministers need to hear there. There must be on-going discussion and about continued investment in science and they debate, rather than one-off research grants for need to be conveyed clearly and powerfully. specific projects. ☐ There are a number of other considerations – not least those affecting the Higher Education FURTHER INFORMATION Funding Council for England (HEFCE). The Higher Education Green Paper also raised very The Nurse Review important structural questions about the implica- www.gov.uk/government/publications/nurse-review-of-research-councils- tions for QR – the other half of dual support. recommendations There is a strong case for a single focus for research funding in this country, with a single Higher Education Green Paper understanding of the research landscape and www.gov.uk/government/consultations/higher-education-teaching-excellence- where the research priorities should be – and social-mobility-and-student-choice advising Ministers on that basis. However, the question arises of how to provide assurance about Dowling Review the division between QR funding and Research www.raeng.org.uk/policy/dowling-review Council grant funding. The Chancellor also said at the time of the Higher Education Funding Council for England Spending Review that he wanted to integrate www.hefce.ac.uk Innovate UK into this new research body. This builds on Professor Ann Dowling’s work on busi- Research Councils UK ness/university collaboration. How can this www.rcuk.ac.uk country ensure that investment in scientific research is then translated into both further ideas Innovate UK and into innovative applications? For we need www.innovateuk.gov.uk this in order to provide the productivity and the fst journal www.foundation.org.uk March 2016, Volume 21(7) 13 RESEARCH COUNCILS

DIVERSITY, ETHICS AND THE WIDER WORLD OF RESEARCH

Professor Dame Jocelyn Bell Burnell DBE FRS FRSE FRAS FInstP The suggestion that the Research Councils should have a joined the panel for the discussion periods. Dame Jocelyn bigger role and better links with European research programmes is President of The Royal Society of Edinburgh and a visiting is welcome. But the wider world needs to be considered too. As professor of astronomy at the University of Oxford. an astrophysicist, I am also interested in countries like China, Australia, and South Africa where the world’s largest radio I particularly like the emphasis on diversity, meaning a full telescopes are being built. breadth of research activities. The research community, at I have concerns about bringing the HEFCE QR component into least in Britain, has tended to have fashions and bandwagons. closer association with the Research Councils through Research UK. If a particular piece of research is not one of those favoured An ambitious Chief Executive of Research UK at some point in the areas, funding can be a struggle. So this is a welcome change future might be tempted to abandon the dual-funding distinction. of emphasis. Speaking as President of the Royal Society of Edinburgh, the I am disappointed there is no mention of major ethical issues. relationships between the Research Councils and the devolved Questions like ‘Should this research be done?’ or ‘Is it too governments need a great deal more development. Recall that dangerous if it falls into the wrong hands?’ or ‘Should this research the ‘E’ at the end of HEFCE stands for England. There are funding be done – is the British public ready for it?’ are difficult but need to bodies in Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland as well – they are be addressed. all different and need to be taken into account.

The debate Key issues he ambition to develop a more effective Drawing elements of the responsibilities of raised by the dialogue between the research communi- HEFCE into the new structure may put the sys- audience included ty and policy makers at Ministerial level tem of dual funding at risk and lead to the break- questions on Twithin central Government is welcome. A Com- up of HEFCE. oversight, focus, mittee of the kind proposed could, for example, It would be wrong to blur the focus of Innova- and public help to shine a light on Departmental research tion UK by locating its functions in a body with an engagement. budgets that had not been protected in the same emphasis on discovery science. Industry contin- way as those of the Research Councils budgets. It ues to feel a sense of full ownership of Innovation could bring a much wider perspective on the col- UK – and that means keeping it separate from lective science and research endeavour across Research UK, though not necessarily excluding central Government, reinforced and supported some form of observer status. The voice of trans- by a more broadly-focussed Research UK and the lational research must not be lost in these new independent oversight body. It would be vital for arrangements. success that the Treasury buys into the new There is a need for a stronger direct engage- arrangements. ment between Research UK and the public, with Questions were raised about the likely effec- the emphasis on improving public understanding tiveness of the proposed oversight committee – of science and building a dialogue which would previous experience of such structures is not inform and support research priorities. The promising. Is there a risk that independent advice regional agenda and the importance of ‘place’ in from senior leaders in science could be diluted by key Governmental strategies is another factor corralling them into such a structure? Even if it which should be taken into account – for example does maintain an effective arms-length relation- in relation to processes such as peer review. ship from Government, will Research UK have There is an opportunity to develop stronger sufficient teeth? links between Research Councils and public sec- The Chief Executives of the Research Councils tor research establishments (much of whose work are to become subordinate, in effect, to the Chief is close to the discovery agenda) with more for- Executive of Research UK. If Research Council mal engagement on specific issues. posts are seen to be downgraded they will not At present political leadership is focussed on attract people of sufficient stature. And will the specific issues – nuclear and fuel poverty – and is voice of, say, social science be squeezed out if failing to communicate the full facts about wider Research UK becomes a single voice? energy issues to the public.

14 March 2016, Volume 21(7) fst journal www.foundation.org.uk RESEARCH PARTNERSHIPS The Dowling Review of Business–University Research Collaborations provided the theme for a meeting of the Foundation for Science and Technology on 7 October 2015.

Creating the climate to excel at innovation Ann Dowling

While some of this is understandable (innovation SUMMARY is a complex, non-linear process), this complexity acts as a barrier to engagement by companies, • Public support structures for collaboration and especially SMEs. It is extremely difficult for those innovation are too complex. firms not accustomed to collaborating with • Researchers need more opportunities to engage ­universities to work out just how to do so. with business throughout their careers. The Review’s overarching recommendation • Pump-priming could have a substantial impact is that Government should reduce complexity Professor Dame Ann Dowling for only a modest outlay. in public support for collaboration. Where this DBE FRS FREng is President • Local Enterprise Partnerships need support to is not possible, every effort should be made of the Royal Academy of deliver their innovation mandate. to ‘hide the wiring’. Engineering and Professor of Mechanical Engineering • The UK has the potential to excel in collaborative This should be done by providing users with and Deputy Vice-Chancellor, research and innovation. an interface which is simple and coherent, direct- University of Cambridge. ing interested parties to the information they Previously she was need without exposing them to the full com­ Head of the Engineering Department at the University 1 y remit in undertaking this Review plexities at play. of Cambridge. Dame Ann was to examine how businesses could It should be made absolutely clear, though, has served on a number of be encouraged to connect with UK that simplification must not be used as an excuse industry and Government Muniversities through strategic research partner- for reducing public support for collaboration. advisory committees. She is a non-executive director ships that deliver benefits for the collaborators Improving coherence and reducing complexity of BP plc and non-executive and also the country as a whole. are quite different from just making cuts. member of the Board of the Collaboration has been a key feature of my own Department for Business, career. Some of my most rewarding and successful People Innovation and Skills (BIS). research activities have come from interactions Another central message from the report is that with industry. I have seen at first hand how work- people are at the heart of any successful collabo- ing with industry can enrich a research career. ration: strong, trusting relationships between In carrying out this Review, I had excellent people in business and academia form the foun- support from both my review group – drawn dation for success. While this may seem self-­ from experts with broad experience across disci- evident, it is absolutely fundamental to improving plines and sectors – and the secretariat at the the environment for collaboration. Royal Academy of Engineering. Despite the tight Contributors to the review were full of enthu- timescale, over 200 written submissions were siasm for the inclusion of impact in the Research received from a very broad spectrum of stake- Excellence Framework (REF) – one said it was the holders. In addition, around 200 individuals took best thing that had happened to him in his whole part in the meetings we held across the country. career! Yet the perception persists that academics The Review team analysed a rich seam of evi- who pursue collaborations with industry do so in dence related to both the barriers and the success spite of, rather than because of, their universities. factors. Perhaps not surprisingly, there was much This country still suffers from the attitude that common ground among businesses and academics. research undertaken as a result of engagement with users is of lower status or quality than ‘pure’ Complexity research. The Review team felt strongly that we The sheer complexity of the support structures need to move on from this. Research inspired by for collaboration and innovation was striking. challenges faced by users is just as intellectually fst journal www.foundation.org.uk March 2016, Volume 21(7) 15 RESEARCH PARTNERSHIPS

identifies developments that could make a KEY MESSAGES OF THE REVIEW long‑term difference to their particular company or sector, and subsequently embarks upon a • Public support for the innovation system is too complex. ­sustained research programme to bring about • People are central to successful collaborations. that change. • Effective brokerage is crucial, particularly for SMEs, and continued support is Pump-priming could enable the creation of a necessary for activities that help seed collaborations. critical mass of expertise, raise the visibility of • Pump-prime funding would stimulate the development of high-quality use-inspired research within universities and research collaborations with critical mass and sustainability. help to unlock the full strategic potential of col- • Technology transfer offices need to prioritise knowledge exchange over laborative relationships. The public funding short-term income generation, and further work is required to improve required would be extremely modest, but would approaches to contracts and IP agreements. encourage significant co-investment from busi- • Government strategy on innovation needs to be better coordinated and have nesses and others including, potentially, regional greater visibility. funding sources.

Terms of engagement challenging as research inspired by other aca- The issues surrounding intellectual property (IP) demics and can be truly excellent. and legal negotiations in general remain barriers One of the best ways of tackling this issue is to to engagement, despite the substantial body of improve the flow between academia and indus- work undertaken by Richard Lambert and others. try; in particular to give researchers at an early There is a tendency in some universities and stage in their careers greater exposure to business technology transfer offices to prioritise short- through training and placements. term income over getting that knowledge and technology into use. Universities should be able Brokerage to gain income from the IP they generate; yet What is the best way to connect businesses and the focus needs to move towards knowledge academics who might benefit from collaboration? exchange, partnerships and long-term benefits – This is of particular concern to SMEs who struggle ultimately, these are likely to yield a better return. to find the time to navigate both the ­academic research base and the support systems available. Government strategy Work is already under way – led by the Nation- The final report also makes recommendations al Centre for Universities and Business – to devel- about Government strategy. Research and inno- op an online portal to facilitate this process. vation need to be fully integrated into industrial Improved online tools are undoubtedly import- and sectoral strategies, with universities treated ant but to be effective they need to be accompa- as core partners in their development and deliv- nied by access to appropriately skilled personnel, ery. The Review team commented on the oppor- as is already the case in Scotland. tunity to use industrial strategy and the ‘Eight Sharing physical space is one means of bringing Great Technologies’ as levers to encourage great- people together. Yet the levying of VAT on shared er business investment in innovation and R&D, facilities acts as a major disincentive. The Review or indeed associated manufacturing capability. urges the Government to look again at this. The current administration seems to have adopted the term ‘industrial approach’, in place of Growing critical mass ‘industrial strategy’ which was the language used There is an exciting opportunity for a pump- by the previous Government. The exact termi- priming scheme to enable small-scale collabora- nology does not matter. However, it is essential tions to grow into group-level partnerships with that we continue making progress towards an critical mass and long-term horizons. industrial framework that emphasises the UK’s Using information from REF impact case stud- priority sectors and technologies, and gives busi- ies as well as data submitted to the Review by uni- nesses and others the confidence to invest. versity vice-chancellors, an assessment was made The Review examined the concept of ‘place’ on the extent to which companies in different sec- in relation to collaboration. Local Enterprise tors engage in collaborative projects. Many are Partnerships (LEPs) have an important role to already engaged with academic researchers and play here and we recommend that Government really benefit. Yet other companies in the same develops a toolkit to support LEPs in delivering sectors and of similar size are hardly engaged at all. their ­innovation ­mandate. Innovate UK should Some of the most challenging and exciting play a pivotal role in ­co­ordinating innovation research occurs when a core group of researchers strategy at a national level.

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I am conscious of being the latest in a long line unlock the potential in our research base and In an ever more of experts looking at this particular topic! So I am deliver products and services of value to our competitive global keen that this exercise renders any further reviews economy and society. environment, of business–university research collaboration There is now good evidence that public invest- Government needs to unnecessary, at least in the near future. I have been ment in R&D ‘crowds-in’ private investment. In create a positive struck throughout the review by the phenomenal an ever more competitive global environment, climate for innovation engagement of the research community and Government needs to create a positive climate for that encourages believe that we have a brilliant opportunity to har- innovation that encourages investment here, investment here ness this momentum and bring about real change. rather than in competitor countries. rather than in The UK has many of the qualities needed to competitor countries. Innovation excel in collaborative research and innovation. The Royal Academy of Engineering has recently Government’s focus now needs to be on making published a report2 on the importance of invest- the whole system work more effectively so that ing in innovation. It is not a part of the Dowling our global standing is maintained – and even Review, but shares a similar focus. boosted – in years to come. ☐ Its key message is that, if the UK wants to reap the benefits of its world-leading research base, it 1. www.raeng.org.uk/policy/dowling-review must ensure that the country has a fantastic inno- 2. www.raeng.org.uk/publications/reports/ vation system; for it is through innovation that we investing-in-innovation A successful framework for innovation and collaboration Peter Gregson

usiness/university collaboration builds on the world-leading research base that exists in SUMMARY the UK. This is often presented in terms of: 1%B of the global population with 4% of the research • The UK has an effective and efficient research spend producing 16% of the most highly-cited base upon which to build. papers. That is an extremely effective and efficient • Innovation does not always mean the same for platform upon which to build. I would urge the businesses and universities. The role of Government is to help the business/ Sir Peter Gregson FREng Government, in addressing the challenges that this • MRIA is Chief Executive Review has set out, not to inadvertently take actions university innovation sphere flourish. and Vice-Chancellor of that negatively impact on this particular strength. • Collaborations at all levels – regional, national Cranfield University. He was While there are very good reasons for focus- and international – are important. previously President and Collaboration and innovation can only flourish Vice-Chancellor of Queen’s sing on business/university research collabora- • University Belfast. He tions, it must be remembered that universities are in a consistent environment. has been a Non-Executive primarily concerned with education and research. Director of Rolls Royce There are key elements of talent development, Group plc and served on the Councils of the Royal from apprenticeship schemes through to post- Discussions on this topic need to acknowledge Academy of Engineering and graduate education, as well as customised execu- the existence of a grey area here. the Central Laboratory of the tive education and professional development, It is also very important to be clear on what Research Councils. where universities like Cranfield collaborate very ‘impact’ means. The idea of impactful research closely with business and government. must not be muddled up with the concepts of One of the Review’s fundamental conclusions entrepreneurial universities or with innovation. it that the innovation system is too complex. That These are different activities – all part of an ambi- may be the case, but innovation is complex and tion, but all very distinctive in their own right. does not follow a simple linear model. Further- I want to focus on a distinction between more, the term ‘innovation’ is not straightforward research and innovation in that triangular space and there is a difference between what business that exists between Government, business and means by innovation and what universities mean. universities. This distinction was succinctly sum- fst journal www.foundation.org.uk March 2016, Volume 21(7) 17 RESEARCH PARTNERSHIPS

Different universities marised in a recent debate at the Royal Academy university collaboration could and should be so have different of Engineering: research is using pounds to much stronger. missions and ­generate knowledge, innovation is using that The skills deficit in Science, Technology, different emphases, know­ledge to generate pounds, and Government ­Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) at all but regional, national is there to create the right environment for this ­levels represents a huge challenge. The UK needs and international cycle to flourish. to double the number of undergraduate and collaborations are Innovation, like research, is a long-term pro- ­postgraduate students in Engineering alone, yet important to every cess, and so consistency of the environment is the demographics are against us. The deficit university. essential. In recent years, the policy was driven must be addressed by increasing the diversity of first through Regional Development Agencies home/EU students and by increasing the number (RDAs) which then changed into Local Enter- of international students: both are vitally import- prise Partnerships (LEPs), Catapults and other ant. Yet the tightening of Tier 4 Visa requirements vehicles. This changing landscape has not been and negative messages in the international helpful. There must be a consistent framework market­place pose significant challenges as UK within which to address this agenda. universities seek to redress this deficit. The current terminology of an ‘innovation Commentators often try to create a divide framework’ is sufficiently inclusive – it links between those universities serving a region and ­Government and its industrial strategy, it links those with global ambitions. The truth is that dif- various sector-driven growth partnerships, as ferent universities have different missions and well as LEPs, Research Councils, Innovate UK, different emphases, but regional, national and HEFCE and other bodies such as the Regional international collaborations are important to Technology Organisations (RTOs). every university. At Queens University, Belfast, As innovation is chaotic by nature, the ques- with a very specific role in society, we recruited tion for Government is how much streamlining global talent and used it for local advantage. That can take place so funding is used effectively and local advantage was expressed in so many ways, efficiently. In that task of streamlining, not only from leadership in health and social care to should it address what is broken, but, crucially, it Knowledge Transfer Partnerships (KTP) with should not attempt to fix what is not broken. family-owned businesses across Northern Ire- land. There are big regional variations across the The people dimension UK; collaboration has a complex landscape and The Review recognises that people are central to universities and businesses must not be too neatly­ success – it was ever thus. compartmentalised. There are already many examples of very close working between universities on the one hand Critical mass and sustainability and large organisations and corporates on the Returning to the SMEs, there are something like other. There are good reasons for that: there are five million in the UK. There are perhaps 10,000 compatibilities in terms of scale, structures, roles academics who might be able to link to some of and responsibilities, so there is a good set of ‘nodal them. But it is still not clear what such businesses points’ to make the important interactions. need from universities and what universities can The trusting environments that have been do for them. A focussed effort is needed to clarify built over the years mean that academics are on needs and capabilities. technology advisory panels and are familiar with There are some very interesting industrial technology road maps in companies, while clusters developing; part physical, part virtual. ­companies are on industrial advisory boards at Manufacturing is a good example: Research universities. Yet it is the same few companies that Councils have been supporting centres of innova- appear time and time again, be it Rolls-Royce, BP, tive manufacturing; Catapults have been estab- Unilever, GSK, JLR, etc. The majority of com- lished; corporates and SMEs have been drawn mercial research funding comes from a very small into these developments. number of companies – and that is an issue. Leverage into the research base is very strong At the other end of the size spectrum, there are in the UK. According to the Royal Academy of about a thousand spin-out companies on our Engineering’s Report Engineering for a successful ­science parks and about 10 times as many gradu- nation1, the £2 billion of Government spend on ate start-ups associated with our universities. R&D in universities leverages £9.5 billion of com- Many of these have very close engagement with mercial R&D spend from business. That is an people within our universities. extraordinary statistic. I am conscious, though, It is with the supply chain SMEs, so critical of the importance of looking beyond just engi- for genuine economic growth, that business–­ neering and also considering benefits other than

18 March 2016, Volume 21(7) fst journal www.foundation.org.uk RESEARCH PARTNERSHIPS the purely economic. It is striking that universi- ­numbers. So there is clearly more work needed Collaboration and ties leverage £1.3 billion annually from medical to be carried out in this area. innovation require a charities: this involves 7.5 million donors a month consistent linking with the ­science base in the UK. That Consistency environment. There must be one of the strongest outreaches to society Ultimately, collaboration and innovation are needs to be a from our ­science base. flourishing in the UK, and they require a consis- Haldane Principle for The Review mentions Technology Transfer tent environment. There needs to be a Haldane innovation; it is very Offices, the interface between business and uni- Principle for innovation; it is very important that important that we do versities. But this is not just about Technology we do not over-manage the innovation cycle. An not over-manage the Transfer Offices, which are often at the leading interesting statistic from a 2014 global review of innovation cycle. edge of drawing research from universities university-based innovation ecosystems high- through for public benefit. Within our universi- lighted that the UK had three of the top five insti- ties there is often a disconnect between TTOs, tutions in the world. This would have been incon- research support offices and contract depart- ceivable two decades ago, and reflects the strength ments and this must be addressed, particularly if of the partnership between universities, business we wish to engage better with SMEs. and government over this period. There is also a tendency for universities and Let’s build on this heritage. I would argue for their academics to underestimate the investment sustained Government funding, simplified only gap between the research ideas and product where complexity is demonstrably a problem, development. However, while some university and ensuring that it continues to be well-lever- TTOs have been promoting easy-access IP, we aged by universities and by business: that is a real are not seeing businesses adopt that in large strength here in the UK. ☐ Helping smaller businesses engage with universities Eric Hawthorn

the Economic Times of India for telecoms. SUMMARY In 2012 we started a five-year collaboration with the University of Leeds. There is now a • The support systems for innovation and team of seven postgraduate researchers, led by collaboration are too complex. Professor Ian Hunter and closely supported by • Local Enterprise Partnerships have a key role to Radio Design. The intellectual property (IP) play in this area. that comes out of that collaboration vests in Too much change makes it difficult for • Radio Design. As a smaller business IP is criti- Eric Hawthorn is Managing businesses to navigate the funding structures. cal, not just to the valuation of the business Director of Radio Design • It is not enough to put the structures in place – but also in providing protection against large, Ltd, a mid-sized company there needs to be outreach in order to engage ag­gressive competitors who resent others push- that he established in 2007. business and academia. Radio Design has two main ing into their space. business activities: the The programme is closely managed; there are design and manufacture meetings with the university most weeks. Results of radio frequency filter adio Design started in 2007 with 11 staff. have come quickly, with the research generating systems to enable the roll- out of high capacity mobile It has been successful because it has been millions of pounds worth of product sales. networks; and specialised innovative. We manufacture in the UK. hardware repair services RThe company now has over 300 people, with Local Enterprise Partnerships for the telecommunications operations in the UK, India and China, as well Since 2010, I have been a private sector member market. In 2012, Radio Design, the Royal Academy as a small presence in Finland. of the Local Enterprise Partnership. LEPs are rel- of Engineering and the The reason behind the venture in India atively new. When I joined, there was no Board University of Leeds was that the market is ­massive. It is also chaotic, and it was still, in fact, being set up. established the Centre of which means lots of opportunities. We won I now chair the Business Innovation and Microwave Signal Processing led by Professor Ian Hunter. the ‘Game Changer of the Year’ Award from Growth Panel. Improving innovation perfor- fst journal www.foundation.org.uk March 2016, Volume 21(7) 19 RESEARCH PARTNERSHIPS

LEPs can make a real difference to innovation and terms of the Research Excellence Framework (REF). When I asked Professor Hunter, with collaboration, in terms of meeting local priorities. whom I am directly engaged: “Why are you work- ing with us? What is it that makes you want to be mance is a priority. It had become increasingly involved in this collaboration?” he told me that he apparent over the past few years that we just did actually likes it. He enjoys working on research not have the resources, the skills or the tools that that is directly related to impact. There needs to were needed. That is changing. be a change within the universities so that both LEPs can make a real difference to innovation the institutions and more of the academics within and collaboration, particularly in terms of meet- them are focussed on this. It is unfortunate that ing local priorities. The Leeds City Region LEP collaboration and involvement with business recently signed a Memorandum of Understand- appears to have less relevance currently than pure ing with our universities, demonstrating a real academic research. willingness to address local priorities. Of course, Funding is important. While there is actually a universities are international businesses, playing lot of funding available, it can be difficult to find. an international stage; yet if the local dimension Even when found, the administration that sur- could be addressed as well there could be huge rounds it is very complex. benefits for everyone. Government can make a difference here. It is A number of the Review’s findings resonate all very well having a strategy, but there has to be with me personally. The current innovation and an implementation plan as well. collaboration system is too complex – there is no doubt about that. That is especially true for small Key points businesses. We really must simplify the system – that does not There is also the issue of matching businesses necessarily mean changing it, but I really like the and academic institutions. In the Leeds region, phrase ‘hiding the wiring’. Some of the adminis- there are around 105,000 VAT-registered busi- tration that goes with the wiring needs to be taken ness but only nine Higher Education Institutes. away as well because for smaller businesses, that The number of small businesses interacting with is very off-putting. Larger businesses have people those HEIs is very, very small though. that manage this process, but in smaller organisa- Many businesses do not even get started on this tions it falls to the people who are trying to run the journey. That might well have been true in my case business at the same time. even though from day one I knew that it was inno- Motivating people is vital. Case studies are a vation that was going to make us successful. The good way of showing people why they should be system is so complex that it is difficult to know involved. where to start and the process gets more difficult This Review is the first thing I have seen in a once you do start looking. And then things keep long time that really resonated with me. I was changing and it is difficult to keep track. very impressed. The recommendations are One example is the Knowledge Transfer Net- well-constructed and they do take account of the works (KTN). My business was closely involved existing infrastructure. with the ICT KTN. But now it has just gone, dis- LEPs are still relatively new: they are still evolv- appeared, which is really disappointing because ing. Leeds City Region has the single biggest award we were starting to understand the network and of local growth funding outside of the London area, get some value out of it. but most of that has been allocated to capital proj- ects, not innovation or R&D. It is only now that the Brokerage focus is moving to innovation and what we can do Brokerage is essential, but just putting tools in about it. We are engaged with Innovate UK on how place is not sufficient. A proactive approach is to promote innovation at a local level. needed to encourage businesses and show them The term ‘SME’ is itself a problem. There is a where to look for support. However, a more uni- massive difference between Radio Design with fied brokerage tool would be very good to have – 300 people and Rolls-Royce with many more. assuming it simplifies the end result! With those 300 people, Radio Design is no longer While motivation may be important for busi- classified as an SME. There is a large gap here and nesses, it is also necessary for universities and while there is more that we could be doing, we are academics, particularly in terms of engagement caught in this gap between the very large busi- with smaller businesses (large businesses can nesses and smaller, growing businesses. Yet we, already point to some great success stories). and many other businesses in our position, still Impact is key for academics, but most see it in have massive growth-potential. ☐

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The debate Issues raised in the debate included funding support, STEM recruitment and public procurement.

here is evidence of growing interest among Technology, Engineering and Mathematics the research community for industry-­ (STEM). Yet schools do not stress career and intel- related research, combine with a willing- lectual opportunities sufficiently. Universities and Tness to collaborate. It is crucial to acclimatise Government need to address this problem. researchers at an early age to the importance of The Government needs to recognise the collaboration and the opportunities that flow from impact of immigration policy on universities and it. In Scotland, there is a closer engagement the economy. There is a continuing disparity between business, universities and local authori- between the number of men and women taking ties than elsewhere. In Northern Ireland, there are up STEM subjects. links to the USA, and a culture of collaboration. Many SMEs encounter difficulties with public The process of simplifying funding support procurement. The NHS, for example, prefers to mechanisms should not mean the removal of any procure goods and services from large companies arrangements which work. Perhaps more tools with an established track record, as do many are needed to enable SMEs and start-ups to attract ­Government departments. The result, in the life venture capital investment. Without investment, sciences, is that many researchers and smaller long-term growth and sustainability may be at companies take their research and innovative risk. However, some sources of funding – venture products elsewhere. capital for example – are not focussed on either Local contacts and institutions, such as local and should be treated with caution. authorities, are important to the success of inno- There is an urgent need to increase the number vation and collaboration. Trust is built through of undergraduates and postgraduates in Science, personal contact and geographical proximity. ☐

FURTHER INFORMATION

The Dowling Review of Business-University Research Collaborations www.raeng.org.uk/publications/reports/the-dowling-review-of-business-university-research

Department for Business Innovation and Skills www.gov.uk/government/organisations/department-for-business-innovation-skills

Government Office for Science www.gov.uk/government/organisations/government-office-for-science

Innovate UK www.innovateuk.gov.uk

Research Councils UK www.rcuk.ac.uk

The Royal Academy of Engineering: The Universe of Engineering – a call for action. A report chaired by Dame Sue Ion DBE FREng www.raeng.org.uk/publications/reports/the-universe-of-engineering

The Royal Academy of Engineering: Investing in innovation www.raeng.org.uk/publications/reports/investing-in-innovation

The Royal Academy of Engineering: Engineering for a successful nation http://www.raeng.org.uk/publications/reports/engineering-for-a-successful-nation

fst journal www.foundation.org.uk March 2016, Volume 21(7) 21 PRODUCTIVITY The OECD estimates that labour productivity, in terms of GDP per hour worked, is significantly lower in the UK than the USA. A meeting of the Foundation for Science and Technology on 2 December 2015 considered how this could be addressed. The role of innovation in boosting productivity Ruth McKernan

lobally, innovation contributes up to 50% of all labour productivity growth. SUMMARY Productivity is maximised when Garound 2.5% of GDP is spent on R&D. The UK • Since 2007, some £3 billion has been invested spends considerably less than other parts of the in UK innovation. world, at 1.8%. However, since 2007, when • Innovation contributes up to 50% of all labour Innovate UK, then known as the Technology productivity growth. Dr Ruth McKernan CBE is Strategy Board, was set up, the UK Government • Working with the research base allows UK Chief Executive of Innovate has spent more than £1.5 billion on innovation, businesses to translate great ideas into UK. She started her career which has brought in another £1.5 billion in consumer products. in pharmaceuticals in business and partner contributions. £3 billion is • Maximising the opportunities for productivity research and commercial improvement relies on connecting the whole management in both the a significant investment for innovation. USA and the UK. She Companies that consistently invest in R&D supply chain. has been a Senior Vice- have higher productivity than companies that do • Innovation involves all types of business from President for Pfizer and Head not; in fact 13% higher than those who do not micro-firms to the largest operations. of Merck’s neuroscience research centre. Dr invest at all. This is not just in terms of direct McKernan moved to returns but includes spill-over effects such as Innovate UK in May 2015. ­better value-added per employee, higher exports money spent on research in this area is translated and so on. So R&D underpins productivity and into econo­mic growth. I do not think anyone would argue with that. Funding is also directed towards energy, trans- Innovate UK has helped 5,000 companies port and infrastructure, emerging and enabling since it began and over 2,000 businesses are technologies. Within the latter I include digital, ­currently in receipt of matched grant funding. satellite applications, graphene and quantum Over that period, it has helped to add an estima­ technologies – the technologies that will drive the ted £7.5 billion to the economy. In terms of Gross future of the economy. The Government’s docu- Value Added (GVA), every pound spent by Inno- ment on productivity contains a great deal about vate UK has returned more than £6 to the UK infrastructure. If cities and our business land- economy. This is good use of public funds! scape in general can be made to work better, that We always carry out an econometric analysis of in itself will drive greater productivity. the money that we spend at the end of each pro- This is not just about providing money to com- gramme and recently we have been looking at the panies, it is also about connecting them to other low-carbon vehicle area and the automotive sector. businesses and people in their supply chain. We There, for every pound spent, the return is between help them learn and grow, find their first custom- £10 and £28. So while overall our funding gener- er and then find other customers who are going to ates a return of just over £6 for every pound spent, buy their products, whether in the UK or abroad. in some sectors the return is much higher. Innovate UK has a Five Point Plan. This pro- vides a really good framework which explains how Across the economy our work improves productivity (see Table 1, p40). Where has that money been invested? Figure 1 (opposite) shows how it is divided up across The research community ­different sectors of the economy. Productivity is We work closely with the research community, lowest in health and life sciences, so there is a and have many programmes where they are great deal of work to be done to make sure that partners. We aim to help turn their ideas into

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PRODUCTIVITY

business. We also work closely with Govern- Looking at the list of biotech projects that have When receiving an ment Departments. A number of these (such as been supported, it goes from Autifony (a new Innovate SME award the Department of Energy and Climate Change drug for schizophrenia) to Ziarco – a treatment recently, the company as well as the Department for Culture, Media for Muscular Dystrophy. The sum total put into said: “Without the and Sport) have innovation as part of their agen- the biomedical sector so far is £200 million. This funding from Innovate da. We run competitions for them and we help has resulted in £1 billion in follow-on funding – UK, we wouldn’t be them connect with the scientists who are driving and that is just in the two to three years we have here today.” innovation in their areas. been running the programme. Take the Catalyst programme. We have part- Looking at specific examples, Endomag is a nered with the Medical Research Council (MRC) nanoscale magnetic tracer technology which has on the Biomedical Catalyst, and with the Biotech- now been used to treat 10,000 patients world- nology and Biological Sciences Research Council wide. We funded them both through the Catalyst (BBSRC) on both the Agritech and Industrial and also through our ‘Future Health Mission’ to Biotechnology Catalysts. We have also partnered California. with the Engineering and Physical Sciences When treating somebody with cancer that has Research Council (EPSRC) on the Energy Cata- invaded into the nodes, you need to know where lyst. In essence, the partners each put funding in that cancer is. Endomag uses a magnetic detec- and provide support to help companies grow. tion system which does not involve drinking Some of these are small companies with a down a radioactive tracer. You can then take the ­specific project, where they need R&D invest- tumour out, knowing that it has all been extracted ment to deliver the product. That product life­ because you are checking for it while the surgery cycle may be five or 10 years. They are carrying is being done. When receiving an Innovate SME out the very early research that will lead to more award recently, they said: “Without the funding work, at the end of which they will be able to sell from Innovate UK, we wouldn’t be here today.” a product. So these projects may be very early, Another example is Discuva. This, too, benefit- very small studies, perhaps feasibility studies. But ed from funding via the Biomedical Catalyst, as the Catalysts exist to provide support throughout well as significant venture capital investment after the development process. our funding had been confirmed. A deal was later The funding that Innovate UK gives to a busi- done with Roche and they too won an SME award ness is always matched by private capital, either for attracting investment. Discuva is a device put in by the company itself to match the grant, or which helps to determine whether a given bacteri- put in by, for example, venture capital companies. al infection is resistant to standard antibiotics.

Innovate UK funding, 2015-16

Energy, Health and life transport, sciences infrastructure £157m £123m

£108m Emerging & enabling £129m £19m technologies

Materials & Connecting manufacturing businesses, people and investors

Figure 1. Innovate UK funding 2015-16 fst journal www.foundation.org.uk March 2016, Volume 21(7) 23

PRODUCTIVITY

In order to grow Company size the innovation When it comes to accelerating UK economic TABLE 1: INNOVATE UK’S ecosystem, you need growth, it is instructive to look at the size of the to be able to connect companies we support (see Figure 2, below). The FIVE POINT PLAN with the large landscape has changed over time. In the early days, companies, who funding was focussed on large companies rather 1. Working with the research community and may know what than small, but the number of smaller companies across Government to turn scientific excellence they want but do not receiving support has steadily increased. My view into economic impact. how to create those is that we should also be funding micro-companies 2. Accelerating UK economic growth, nurturing products. (those with fewer than 10 staff) and small business- small, high-growth companies, with strong es with between 10 and 15 employees. We also need productivity and export success. to measure the number of medium-sized business- 3. Building on innovation excellence throughout es in this country, because these are the ones that the UK, investing locally in areas of strength. already employ a lot of people, they pay tax and are 4. Developing Catapults within a national really the engine of growth in the UK. innovation network. We are going to need a lot of micros and 5. Evolving our funding models; help public smalls to grow, as well as a substantial number of funding go further. medium-sized enterprises, in order to boost the economy. ductive sector in the UK and I think there is a lot Connecting the supply chain there for other sectors to learn. Innovate UK has However, a related point here is that, in order to run a number of collaborative R&D Programmes grow the innovation ecosystem, you need to be where companies of different sizes have been able to connect with the large companies. They brought together to tackle the same challenge. In may know what they want, but do not how to the Evoque_e project, the partners are developing ­create those products. They know the ‘what’, but future hybrid and battery vehicle technologies by not the ‘how’. That requires connections with the putting different elements together, testing them SMEs who might already be on the journey to and improving them. ­creating the piece that fits, as well as connections The programmes we run also promote tech- to the academic research that starts the process. nology transfer between sectors. McLaren is The automotive industry is a splendid example ­synonymous with sports cars, yet the predictive of how this can work. This is now the most pro- analytics that are so important in Formula One

AcceleratingAccelerating innovationinnovation –– growinggrowing businessesbusinesses

Academic Large Medium Small Micro

Increasing our focus on small, high-growth companies

Figure 2. Accelerating innovation and growing businesses

24 March 2016, Volume 21(7) fst journal www.foundation.org.uk

PRODUCTIVITY for knowing how the car is performing as it Every matched grant is awarded through goes around the race-track are also applicable ­competition. These are entirely open and people to healthcare. anywhere in the UK can apply. We have analysed Isansys worked with McLaren to apply this where that funding has been won and it is by no technology. It invented a bandage-like detector means restricted to the Golden Triangle between which allows small babies to be taken out of Oxford, Cambridge and London. Since we were incubators, held by their parents, walked around set up in 2007, grants have been won all over the and not kept in an isolated system, while being UK. In fact, the most successful area of the UK, continuously monitored. This is perfect for seri- per head of population, in winning Innovate UK ously ill babies. funding is the North East. ☐ Rebooting productivity policy Jonathan Haskel

‘relatively’ (degradation continues, but at a lesser SUMMARY rate to growth, pursued by the OECD since 1980) and ‘absolutely’ (degradation is truly stemmed, • Current analysis of investment needs an while development continues). We talk of overhaul. ‘resource productivity’ (doing more for less) in • Types of investment made by UK firms have order to secure absolute decoupling – indeed this changed. is an enormous opportunity for clean technology Not enough account taken of intangibles in the • innovation, if we want to take it. Professor Jonathan Haskel national investment data. The debate on decoupling is at the stage where is Professor of Economics • Tthis leads to a distorted view of the economy. the aim is now to stimulate a green economy with and Director of Research at • Banking system may not provide the right targeted interventions that avoid the uncertain- Imperial College Business environment for investment. School. He is an expert in ties of wholesale disruptive change to the indus- labour productivity. He has trial economy. This approach is being adopted by just finished his second many voices and strategies – from the deep ecol- term as a Member of the igure 1 (see page 42) shows GDP per hour ogy (radical, revolutionary, act now) movement Reporting Panel of the Competition Commission worked. The USA has the value of 1, so to a more transitional approach. and has served on market other countries are compared relative to One of these strategies is that of a circular inquiries into mobile AmericanF performance. In the 1970s, Germany, economy – an economy that is, by intent, pur- phones, home credit, the UK and France were all about 35 percentage posefully restorative. airports and the EMAP/ ABI merger. Professor points behind, but all the economies caught Haskel is Director of the up fairly steadily (with the UK somewhat lag- The green economy Centre for Research into ging behind). It is worth reviewing the breadth of issues that the Business Activity and is Resource extraction tracks economic growth, environmental sciences are expected to address on the editorial board of Economica. and growth is ultimately constrained by the eco- within the business sector. Companies have to nomic availability of resource stocks (reserves). manage: increased expectations on environmen- The seminal work on ‘limits to growth’ was tal governance; a growing demand to perform undertaken by the Systems Dynamics Group at beyond basic legal compliance; the expectations the Sloan School, MIT, in the early 1970s. Using a of self-regulation, sharing more risk and cost; scenario approach – the World3 model – they global value chains vulnerable to occasional compared the ‘number of earths’ required to sup- shocks; and the rise of codified ethical standards. port human activity (including the absorption of Business leaders in the 21st century are expect- wastes) with humanity’s ecological footprint, and ed to articulate the sustainability agenda through projected this forward in time. In short, we are a tough filter of business reality because the agen- now in ‘overshoot’ – our needs have exceeded the da has become a main board item, with growing resources available and so we must examine how we can continue to develop and support societies Business leaders in the 21st century are by decoupling growth from its impact. How severe a decoupling show we pursue? expected to articulate the sustainability agenda Economists speak about decoupling that happens through a tough filter of business reality. fst journal www.foundation.org.uk March 2016, Volume 21(7) 25 PRODUCTIVITY

It would be folly to assume one strategy will deliver all the The productivity gap with the US outcomes we seek, so (GDP per hour worked, $US, PPP, US=1) we need to work with a palette of responses. 1.05

1

0.95

0.9

0.85 UK 0.8 Germany France 0.75

0.7

0.65

0.6

Figure 1. The productivity gap with the US Source: OECD, http://stats.oecd.org/index.aspx?DatasetCode=PDB_LV (Source: OECD, http://stats.oecd.org/index.aspx?DatasetCode=PDB_LV)

calls for the routine disclosure of environmental New business models performance. So what are the strategies for reducing the tension There is enormous business opportunity in all between resource extraction and environmental this. The international water sector, for example, impact? These depend on whether one opts for is under considerable pressure. It is being ‘evolution’ or ‘revolution’; for transitional or dis- required to reduce the energy costs of shifting ruptive change. The needs are to secure value water and so is seeking to revolutionise waste­ (business) and well-being (society) through less water treatment and turn conventional unit impact while at the same time restoring the envi- ­processes into a manufacturing facility for phos- ronment. In policy terms, this is about articulat- phorus and nitrogen recovery. Biogas from ing the future we want (UN) or living well within digested sewage is being used to power on-site our limits (EU). It would be folly to assume one plant. These pressures can be viewed equally as strategy will deliver all the outcomes we seek, so business opportunities to drive innovation. we need to work with a palette of responses. Governments talk increasing of a green econ- Hence the need for an in-depth understanding of omy. Advanced economies are becoming inter- what different business models can deliver. ested in the low-carbon environmental goods and services sector because of the prospects for A new paradigm growth, jobs, export, scale-up and the skills The linear paradigm of ‘make, use, dispose’ opportunity. The Department for Business, from the 1950s must now be considered unhelp- Innovation and Skills (BIS) estimates the global ful. Even a thermodynamic view of resource green economy to be a £3.4 trillion market, extraction, manufacture, product use, and ­growing at about 4% a year. The UK is the world’s resource recovery (adopted in the late 1970s after sixth largest supplier, with 3.7% of the global the last energy crisis) does not deal easily with ­market share supporting just under a ­million systems and their interconnectedness. jobs in the UK alone. Any new paradigm needs to focus on societal development, be uplifting (for societal buy-in) Any new paradigm needs to focus on societal and value-centric to be recognisable to business. It must also generate jobs, well-being and value development, be uplifting (for societal buy-in) and while restoring the environment. The circular value-centric to be recognisable to business. economy is one such paradigm. It has its roots in

26 March 2016, Volume 21(7) fst journal www.foundation.org.uk PRODUCTIVITY the work of Fritz Schumacher, Walter Stahl and We are certainly not short of data, information and David Pearce. Reinvigorated by the Ellen Macar- thur Foundation and others, with analytical evidence. The question for a systems approach is, insight from McKinsey and Company, it brings can we generate meaningful insight from it? together the industrial and ecosystem in a new, practical way. Here, the business of the environ- multidisciplinary thinking and translational sci- ment is writ large – integrating applied environ- ence. We are certainly not short of data, informa- mental science and technology and aligning these tion and evidence. The question for a systems with the economic needs of the industrial system. approach is, can we generate meaningful insight The circular economy is purposefully restor- from it that instils a sense of collective urgency to ative by design, and one in which material flows are address these challenges? of two types: biological nutrients, designed to Cranfield’s recent success in this regard relates re-enter the biosphere safely, and technical ‘nutri- to risk and big data – recognising the enhanced ents’ (product components and assemblies that systems understanding that the analysis of large feed the industrial system), designed to circulate at volumes of data might yield. high quality without entering the environment. To achieve that goal, a new generation of risk The focus is on maintaining the value of system analysts needs to be trained in order to design components – a sequence of cascades for capturing mitigation strategies and seize opportunities that their value is deployed. Reports by McKinsey and will emerge. Company highlight a combined annual trillion dollar opportunity globally in net material cost Environmental reframing savings through transition to a circular economy. We are forging a new forward-looking, value- This process is driven by factors such as increased centric, business-focussed literacy within the design for re-use, new or enhanced recovery mod- environmental sciences; one that can challenge­ els, and the introduction of access- instead of own- and work with business. Along with other dis­ ership-models that promote greater circularity. ciplines, environmental scientists are moving apace, reframing much of what we have done Skills and big data with a new resonance for industry and focussed Recent audits of the skills required to address on the enormous opportunities that the future these needs show a rising need for modelling, will bring. ☐ UK intangible investment exceeds tangible investment

Tangibles: computer hardware, machinery, buildings, vehicles Intangibles: software, R&D, artistic originals, design, training, market research, business process re-engineering

Figure 2. UK intangible investment exceeds tangible investment. (Tangibles: computer hardware, machinery, buildings, vehicles. Intangibles: software, R&D, artistic originals, design, training, market research, business process re-engineering) fst journal www.foundation.org.uk March 2016, Volume 21(7) 27

PRODUCTIVITY The importance of collaboration Tony Harper

cles. In addition, Shriti Vadera, who was a Minis- SUMMARY ter at the time, said: “The Government wants to get together with you, in order to work out what • Working together as an industry has brought we can do together to innovate and grow, assum- success and has attracted further investments. ing we all survive the next few weeks.” • Nurturing the whole supply chain is more That was the starting point of a journey that important than focussing on any single element. continues today. The realisation that we had to Tony Harper is Head of • Greater integration of the universities with the get together as an industry coalesced around this Research and Advanced supply chain is needed. £120 million opportunity. We all agreed that Systems Engineering at • There needs to be greater focus on technical skills unless we did something, unless we came up with Jaguar Land Rover. He in order to encourage greater productivity in a common position, that money was probably has been responsible for businesses. all of Jaguar’s Computer going to be wasted. We agreed that we needed to Aided Design activities create a technological roadmap to get us from our and was head of the Jaguar existing position to one where we had reduced the Vehicle Engineering team n the autumn of 2009, the automotive indus- CO of all of our vehicles. responsible for Concept 2 Design, Packaging, try in the UK, and indeed globally, was staring That was achieved under the banner of the New Aerodynamics and into an abyss. At Jaguar Land Rover, there was Automotive Innovation and Growth Team (many Vehicle Computer Aided Ispeculation over bail-outs and Government help: of us did not realise there has been a previous Inno- Engineering. Tony held this most of this was misinformed but it gives you the vation and Growth Team, it had been that uncoor- post during the development of the current XK and sense of where the industry found itself only six dinated!). The team produced something that has previous XJ product ranges. years ago. become an icon in our industry now – the Automo- Contrast that with the situation today where tive Council’s Consensus Roadmap. Solihull, one of the plants under threat at that Since then, we have tried to take that seed and time, has just won another £120 million of invest- join up the rest of the ecosystem. Between our- ment. That is on top of more than £1 billion that selves, the Department for Business, Innovation have been committed since those dark days. Yet, and Science (BIS) and Innovate UK, we have been normally, six years would be no more than a blink running the Integrated Delivery Programme of an eye in our industry. since 2008-9. Because we managed to demon- In 2009, all of our counterparts in the UK were strate success, we managed to attract further staring down the barrel of the same gun. Yet as an funds and investments. industry, we did not talk to each other. This col- The subsequent investments that we make as an lective ‘near-death’ experience forced us to do so industry are often ten times the initial, public – to get together as a group. investment. This involves more than just the Another notable event was the publication of spending on innovation. The automotive industry the Stern Review on climate change and also the is very development-intensive and the money that King Review on low-carbon vehicles. This we spend on development in order to bring these flagged up that there was a very significant tech- ideas to market is an order of magnitude higher nical challenge to be addressed before 2020, than the investment in the innovation itself. whether we liked it or not. That was a technical On the back of the success of that programme, and business challenge that was common to us all. we worked within what became the Automotive Two other things happened at that time. One Council to identify opportunities, particularly in was that Innovate UK announced £120 million of advanced propulsion systems. That gave birth to investment promoting R&D in low-carbon vehi- the Advanced Propulsion Centre (APC). Now people talk about the Valley of Death or We needed to create a technological roadmap the need to bridge this gap or that, but the auto- motive industry is quite a complicated machine. to get us to a position where we had reduced In order to make it work, all of the bits need to be the CO2 of all of our vehicles. connected together.

28 March 2016, Volume 21(7) fst journal www.foundation.org.uk PRODUCTIVITY

The Jaguar XF on the production line at Castle Bromwich

Through the Automotive Council, it has been productivity. A recent Automotive Council Tech- possible to bring together different elements, such nology Group meeting focussed on aesthetic as the initial investment, as well as private funding design: our industry is very dependent on aes­thetic through things like the Advanced Propulsion Cen- design skills, but this area is both an opportunity tre, and then there are the Innovate UK pro- and a current weakness within the UK. Other grammes. The other urgent challenge now is to ­priorities are in software and electronics. really build the system back into the university base. Now, while the programmes that Innovate UK, The industry is not well-connected to that yet. the Research Councils and APC support have not been the sole reasons that we have been able to The supply chain make this journey over the past six years, they are Nurturing the entire supply chain has a greater definitely parts of the landscape of the journey. effect on productivity than a focus on any one They have also contributed significantly to the individual element. So in the UK, four of the top confidence-building activity within Government ten universities are producing academically and industry that has resulted in billions of excellent work related to the automotive sector, pounds worth of investment. yet the results are not well-integrated with the rest of the ecosystem. In Germany their highest The Spending Review ranked university involved in this area is sixtieth The Comprehensive Spending Review could have in their rankings, yet the supply chain is con­ thrown a couple of large spanners into the work nected together, helping them to get maximum of Innovate UK and of the APC. The good news benefit from the research. This suggests that is that the programmes have been preserved – there are opportunities we are not yet optimising indeed the APC has been such a success that it in linking all that university activity with the rest has been extended for another two years with of the ecosystem; and the Automotive Council is an additional £200 million of funding. It is also addressing this issue now. The ecosystem we have today has developed UK universities are producing academically from the challenge of CO2 reduction and more ­specifically electrification. We are now moving on excellent work related to the automotive sector, to think about other key areas that can help increase yet the results are not well-integrated. fst journal www.foundation.org.uk March 2016, Volume 21(7) 29 PRODUCTIVITY

starting to attract further inward investment – bought, the right investments are made in R&D, German companies are asking to be part of it. the right push is made on productivity and I Global investors in R&D, looking for the next would argue that these skill sets are not always place to invest, are saying that, actually, it is in the present in the UK. UK that things are happening. However, if you grow healthy ecosystems, you In Germany, whether in companies or univer- cannot help but create the skills that you need. It sities or any collaborative activities, the general is an inevitable side effect of this process. I am not skill levels and technical literacy of the manage- talking about taught programmes or courses, I am ment are very high. That means that investment talking about the way this activity generates key decisions are made wisely, the right equipment is skills which encourage productivity. ☐ The debate Issues raised in the debate included the adequacy of data, the living wage, policy and management culture.

here are significant doubts about the ade- weight of the financial sector in the UK economy. quacy of aggregated statistical data about International data are meaningful only if investment and productivity in convey- based on internationally agreed definitions. Ting an accurate measure of the true productivity Moreover, the USA shares the UK’s position in gap between the UK and the USA. having large volumes of intangibles excluded Not only are there significant variations from the data. between different economic sectors but also the scale of the post-2008 decline in UK productivity Productivity versus employment has been exacerbated by the relatively larger The impact of the introduction of a minimum ­living wage may be positive for productivity but adverse for employment. Indeed, the UK’s current, FURTHER INFORMATION relatively high employment rate is the logical cor- ollary of the UK’s comparatively poor productivity The productivity gap with the US (GDP per hour worked, $US, PPP, US=1), performance. However, higher productivity and OECD greater innovation could lead to increased output https://data.oecd.org/lprdty/unit-labour-costs.htm#indicator-chart and an expanding economy and thence the pros- pect of improved employment opportunities. The House of Commons Science and Technology Select Committee Report: Are University Technical Transfer Offices a help The Science Budget or a hindrance? In the USA, MIT does not have www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201516/cmselect/ anything of the kind but instead has an industrial cmsctech/340/340.pdf liaison office which develops partnerships – it may be a model worth considering in the UK. The Dowling Review of Business-University Research Collaborations The importance of a stable and consistent pol- www.raeng.org.uk/policy/dowling-review icy environment for investment in innovation was highlighted. However, stability of policy Spending Review and Autumn Statement 2015 should not be at the expense of flexibility in www.gov.uk/government/topical-events/autumn-statement-and-spending- response to international competition. review-2015 When comparing the UK and Germany it has to be acknowledged that there are very different Catapult Centres management cultures. www.catapult.org.uk The UK needs to do better in obtaining finan- cial benefits from its high quality research and so Innovate UK generate more resources to be ploughed back into www.innovateuk.gov.uk research. Does higher GDP really lead to a better sus- Research Councils UK tainable life for the community? After all, GDP, as www.rcuk.ac.uk currently measured, does not provide a full mea- sure of wellbeing. ☐

30 March 2016, Volume 21(7) fst journal www.foundation.org.uk ENERGY FUTURES What is the future of the energy sector in Scotland, given both the risks and opportunities currently facing the industry? A joint meeting of The Foundation for Science and Technology and The Royal Society of Edinburgh on 22 October 2015 discussed the issue.

The benefits of renewable energy

Phil Boswell

For example, changes to the feed-in tariffs for SUMMARY solar energy are predicted to result in the loss of 20,000 jobs with 1 million fewer solar panels • The UK Government’s cuts to renewable energy being installed in the next five years. This is subsidies will harm both existing businesses despite the fact that industry experts have pre- and start-ups, resulting in job losses and dicted that the UK solar industry would be strong discouraging investment. enough to go subsidy-free by 2020 if the feed-in • In Scotland, 40% of families live in fuel tariff were maintained. Phil Boswell is Member of poverty while the big energy companies make Parliament for Coatbridge, record profits. Ending fuel poverty Chryston and Bellshill. He Renewable energy provides an opportunity for Subsidies to energy efficiency do not only affect was elected to Parliament • in May 2015. A member of a more competitive energy market with lower businesses. The most recent statistics from the costs for the consumer. the Scottish National Party Scottish Government in the Scottish House Con- (SNP), he has worked in • Unconventional oil and gas extraction, or dition Survey show that nearly 40% of households the oil sector as a quantity ‘fracking’, might damage clean water supplies in Scotland are living in fuel poverty1. Fuel pov- surveyor and contracts engineer. and will produce only finite supplies of energy. erty has more far-reaching effects than simply not • Scotland’s natural resources are well-suited to being able to maintain heating. According to a renewable energy. report commissioned by Friends of the Earth in 2011, entitled The Health Impacts of Cold Homes and Fuel Poverty, children living in cold homes nergy is a critical component of the Scot- are more than twice as likely to have respiratory tish economy and has a pivotal role in the problems as those living in warm homes2. The country’s future. Yet the UK Government same report showed that adolescents living in hasE missed a valuable opportunity to encourage cold homes are five times more likely to have mul- growth in this sector. It has cut the budget for the tiple mental health problems than adolescents Department of Energy and Climate Change living in warm homes. (DECC) by £70 million. Fuel poverty means that the proportion of Some £40 million of this lies in cuts to subsi- household income that could otherwise be used dies promoting energy efficiency. That means to buy healthy, nutritious food goes on paying axing programmes such as the Green Deal and energy bills. It has deleterious effects on people’s the Green Deal Home Improvement Fund as well emotional well-being and on their educational as stopping subsidies for solar power and feed-in attainment. This combination of mental and tariffs. Such programmes were designed to help physical health problems, poor diet, emotional individuals and families make their homes more turmoil and diminished educational attainment, energy-efficient. caused in part by fuel poverty, is a recipe for con- demning people to a cycle of poverty. Creating jobs The primary contributors to fuel poverty are Subsidies for renewable energy would have creat- household income, fuel costs and the energy effi- ed business opportunities for SMEs as well as cor- ciency of homes. Reducing subsidies that could porations. Cutting these removes incentives for businesses to enter the energy sector and is par- Tackling fuel poverty must be a key factor when ticularly discouraging for small start-up compa- nies. This harms local and national businesses considering future growth potential in the energy while leading to job losses around the country. sector in Scotland. fst journal www.foundation.org.uk March 2016, Volume 21(7) 31 ENERGY FUTURES

offers a crucial opportunity to create a competitive, functioning market that works for consumers rather than just for monopolistic corporations.

The risks of fracking Many believe that the future of Scotland’s energy industry lies in unconventional oil and gas extraction such as hydraulic fracturing of shale, or ‘fracking’. However, fracking is not ­without risk. It has been acknowledged by the US Environmental Protection Agency that ­fracking might cause the contamination of ­drinking water wells4. Clean water is one of Scotland’s most plentiful

McGill and precious resources, and is sometimes referred Changes to the feed-in tariffs for solar energy may result in a million to as ‘blue gold’. As such resources become increas- fewer solar panels being installed in the next five years ingly scarce throughout the world, an opportunity arises for an export industry for Scotland. enable people to make their homes more energy Some have suggested that a future global flare- efficient by installing insulation and energy-effi- up could revolve around access to clean water. It is cient boilers, and by generating their own solar essential that we protect this invaluable resource. energy, is a regressive step. I have been a strong supporter of the Scottish Energy inefficient homes are often due to poor Government’s moratorium on unconventional quality housing. Condensation and damp force oil and gas extraction, and am pleased that the people to open windows during the winter while moratorium has been expanded to include the heating is on. Fuel poverty also is tied in with underground coal gasification. Despite the mor- other issues such as the current housing crisis. atorium, energy companies involved in uncon- Tackling fuel poverty must be a key factor ventional gas extraction continue to pursue plans when considering future growth potential in the to expand their operations. It is up to these com- energy sector in Scotland. Ending fuel poverty panies to prove that these operations are safe and goes hand-in-hand with more efficient use of fos- will be policed and enforced by regulation. Final- sil fuels and a move toward exclusive use of ly, like any other fossil fuel, the oil and gas that renewable energy. would be extracted through fracking is finite.

Challenging the energy suppliers Harnessing Scotland’s natural resources At the same time as many households are strug- Scotland’s renewable energy sector has a huge gling to keep the heating on, the big six energy capacity for growth. We have one-tenth of companies are making massive profits. Scottish Europe’s wave energy potential and a quarter of Power quadrupled its profit last year, from £27 its offshore wind and tidal potential. For such a million to £114 million. British Gas profits rose small nation these statistics are staggering. 99% from 2014 to 2015 – at the same time as its Not only does Scotland have the potential to parent company Centrica plans to cut 4,000 jobs. power itself entirely from renewable energy, we Not only have they been making massive prof- also have the opportunity to develop an export its, the Competition and Markets Authority has market for this high-demand resource. This recently found that energy companies have been means that Scotland can remain a dominant play- overcharging their customers to the tune of er in the global energy industry as it reduces £1.2 billion per year3. The lack of action on this its dependence on oil. For Scotland, the future finding, by both the UK Government and the clearly lies in renewable energy. ☐ companies involved is disturbing. The dominance of the big six energy companies 1. www.gov.scot/Resource/0046/00465627.pdf is a clear case of market failure. It is now time for a 2. www.foe.co.uk/sites/default/files/downloads/ change. The emergence of the renewable sector cold_homes_health.pdf 3. www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/ Not only does Scotland have the potential to power uploads/attachment_data/file/442500/EMI_ PFs_Summary.pdf itself entirely from renewable energy, we also have 4. cfpub.epa.gov/ncea/hfstudy/recordisplay. the opportunity to develop an export market. cfm?deid=244651

32 March 2016, Volume 21(7) fst journal www.foundation.org.uk ENERGY FUTURES Scotland’s position in the energy market Iain Conn

Climate change SUMMARY On the question of climate change, Scotland’s energy consumption mix is about 35% oil (main- • Everyone is trying to balance the priorities of ly for transport and petro-chemicals), 41% natu- security, climate change and affordability. ral gas which is mainly for domestic heating and • Europe’s energy costs are twice that of the USA, industry, 21% electricity and 3% other sources labour costs double that of Asia. including biogas. • Scotland starts from an enviable position. About one-third of its electricity is nuclear and Iain Conn FREng FRSE • To remain viable, North Sea production costs a further third renewables. With the substantial became Chief Executive of must be reduced. use of natural gas for heating, Scotland has sig- Centrica on 1 January 2015. He was previously Chief • Demand management and energy efficiency nificantly lower carbon emissions than the rest of Executive, Downstream, of offer great opportunities. the UK. Indeed, Scotland has a good chance of BP’s refining and marketing meeting its 2020 goals in delivering 30% of overall division and a Board energy demand from renewables, with 100% of Executive Director at BP for 10 years. Iain is currently a he world spends $7 trillion a year on ener- electricity being renewably sourced. Non-Executive Director of BT gy, some 10% of the world’s GDP. Given Group plc. He has served as our world’s dependence on current ener- Affordability a Non-Executive Director and Tgy systems, change will be difficult. It took 150 The major (but not sole) reason that Europe’s Senior Independent Director of Rolls-Royce Holdings years to move from wood to coal and another 150 energy costs are twice those of the USA is that plc. He is a member of the to move from coal to oil and gas. Try to effect country’s development of shale gas. Electricity in CBI President’s Committee, change too quickly and the process will become America costs 10.1p/kWh while in the UK it is Chairman of the advisory very expensive. 15.5p on average and 16.0p in Scotland. Natural board of Imperial College Business School and a Everyone is trying to balance three priorities gas is 2.9p in the USA, 5.0p in the UK (and slight- member of Imperial College – security, climate change and affordability. In ly better in Scotland at 4.8p). Council. terms of affordability and competitiveness, In a UK energy bill, half the cost is due to trans- Europe has a particularly challenging position. port, distribution and transmission costs together Energy costs are twice those of the USA, while with Government levies. The Government has industry’s labour costs are twice that of Asia. recently reduced the amount spent on renewable Affordability is, therefore, key in how fast we obligations and the levy framework: it cannot move and which changes to make. afford to subsidise change at too fast a pace. How- However, Scotland starts with an advantage, in ever, this does mean lower growth in onshore terms of both security and climate change, wind and there will be implications for the solar although affordability must still be borne in mind. industry in the UK too. I support interventions which focus on afford- Security of supply ability because ultimately it is my customers who Scotland is a major energy exporter, producing have to pay the bills. It is not possible to have all 67.6 million tonnes of oil equivalent, but only these Government support levies, which people consuming 14.9 million tonnes. Once losses of have to pay for, as well as cheap energy. So, while 7.4 million tonnes are taken into account, 45.3 Scotland has an enviable starting point, the way million tonnes remain available for export. In forward has to be carefully managed. order to optimise its energy, Scotland also imports and exports another 25 million tonnes, largely in The North Sea the form of natural gas. Scotland’s strong position as an oil and gas pro- The picture is dominated by the production ducer and exporter is threatened today and we and export of oil and gas from the North Sea. must improve the North Sea at lower prices. Low Scotland produced 94% of the UK’s oil and 51% of oil and gas prices, high relative costs and a gener- its gas in 2014. So Scotland has clearly achieved ally mature basin are threatening its viability. security of supply. It is being impacted by the policy of Saudi fst journal www.foundation.org.uk March 2016, Volume 21(7) 33 ENERGY FUTURES

Micro-generation ­Arabia, which is chasing market share. Its goal is Demand management with combined heat that the world should use more low-cost, Oil companies and energy people tend to count and power units in high-margin barrels, rather than more high cost, barrels rather than demand. Yet there are some consumers’ homes low margin barrels. So they are taking the war really exciting developments in energy demand will allow them to sell to the Americans, Canadians and Venezuelans management. The traditional grid system is electricity back to the (and their financiers), effectively telling them: being replaced – quite quickly – by distributed grid and this gives “If anyone is going to win in terms of market energy systems. These give businesses, for exam- them more control share, it is us.” To achieve that, Saudi Arabia ple, more control through smaller, on-site gener- over their energy has been driving prices down: I think they ation facilities. They can use back-up generators usage. will stay down for some time. to reduce bills. Newer, more efficient, on-site What does that mean for the North Sea? Well, heating and power systems can even contribute to investment is being slashed – in 2017 it will be one meeting demand at times of peak load. third of the 2014 figure. About 50% of UK pro- For consumers, for example, micro-generation duction today would be uneconomic at $55 a with combined heat and power units in their ­barrel and we are below that figure. homes will allow them to sell electricity back to the This region has some of the highest production grid and this gives them more control over their costs in the world: they have trebled over just the energy usage. I can see a future where the national last 10 years. What must be done? Drive produc- grid is to some degree an insurance policy – you tion efficiency. Reduce capital costs, although it is just need it in case your own systems stop working. an open question whether these can be reduced fast Centrica has installed 252,000 Hive smart enough in the current climate. Share infrastruc- thermostat control units in people’s homes, help- ture, reduce taxation (a big issue for Government) ing them use less energy because they can better and find more competitive sources of oil and gas. manage their energy systems and so making it as efficient as possible. We are rolling-out 15 million Shale gas smart meters at a cost of £3 billion. More infor- Shale gas should be cheaper to produce because it mation gives people more understanding and so is onshore. Fracking is not a new technology – it greater ability to change their behaviour, using has been around since 1940. It can be done safely: less energy more efficiently. it needs to be done safely and responsibly and the Centrica produces 4% of all of the oil and gas UK needs it. Scotland does not have a great deal within the UK, so we are a large part of the UK of it, though. The Midland Valley has 80 trillion energy system – and that of Scotland. The future is cubic feet. The Bolan shale in Lancashire has not bleak, but we need to identify and adopt prag- about 1,330 trillion cubic feet, about 16 times as matic pathways to that future. We have learned much. Never­theless, an appraisal on its viability enough about energy in the last 20 years to know needs to be carried out. what has to be done. We just have to go there. ☐ A role for shale gas Gary Haywood

am often asked why shale gas is needed when energy used in the UK. It is predicted that by 2035 we have renewables. The answer is that renew- the figure will be less than a quarter. To achieve ables alone will not be sufficient to supply our this, consumption of gas will need to double from Ienergy needs in the immediate future. Currently, its current 20% to 40%. No matter how quickly 80% of homes in the UK rely on gas for heating. the renewable energy sector grows, it will take And even with increased renewables capacity, we some time before it can replace our current ener- will need gas to provide energy when the wind does gy sources. Gary Haywood is Chief not blow and the sun does not shine. We also need While the need for gas will increase, there has Executive Officer, INEOS gas for feedstock and to make the plastics and been a steady decline in North Sea gas and oil pro- Shale. He has been CEO of chemicals used in everyday products such as duction and a corresponding rise in the depen- INEOS Olefins & Polymers UK as well as Petroineos clothes, appliances and pharmaceuticals. dence on imported gas. The UK has moved from Refining Ltd, the PetroChina/ Gas will be essential if the country is to reduce being self-sufficient in gas in 2000 to importing INEOS refining operations the use of coal and so achieve lower carbon emis- over half of its requirements. This has important joint venture in Europe. sions. In 2011, coal accounted for almost half the implications for energy security and for living

34 March 2016, Volume 21(7) fst journal www.foundation.org.uk ENERGY FUTURES standards, as well as for the economy in Scotland and northeast England. SUMMARY Shale gas • Renewable energy will not be sufficient to supply It is not known how much shale gas there might our energy needs in the immediate future. be in Scotland, but there is certainly much poten- • To meet carbon reduction targets we need to tial. It could provide 20–50% of our gas demand replace coal with gas. for decades. To exploit this valuable resource we • Shale gas, together with renewables, could need to determine the extent and location of Scot- supply up to half of our energy needs for land’s shale gas reserves. decades. The US experience has shown the potential. A • Development of shale gas relies on suitable single shale basin in the eastern USA, the Marcel- geology, specialised skills, a cost-effective lus Shale, began producing gas at 1 billion cubic supply chain and public acceptance. feet per day in 2009, and by February 2014 this • Public education and dialogue is needed to had risen to 14 billion cubic feet per day. To put persuade people that, properly regulated, shale this into perspective, total UK consumption is gas can be a safe and secure energy source that does not harm the environment. about 8 billion cubic feet per day. While Scotland (or even the entire UK) may not be able to equal this, it does provide an indication of what can be done with shale reserves if we apply appropriate need to bring these down. Fourth (and possibly extraction technology. INEOS currently has the most important factor), is public acceptability licences to explore just over 700 km2 of potential of shale gas. shale gas formations in Scotland. Development of shale gas depends upon four Gaining public acceptance factors. First, of course, the geology has to be suit- The acceptability of shale gas to the public is the able for development. Second, specific skills are most challenging aspect of shale exploration. needed to extract the shale gas and the UK is short There is a high level of public concern about water of skills such as hydraulic shale fracturing. Third, contamination, seismicity and the impact on a cost-effective supply chain is necessary. At the communities. The public mistrust the industry, moment the costs of drilling and hydraulic frac- but tend to trust environmental campaigners. turing in the UK are enormous, between two and So people need to be encouraged to look objec- five times the costs in the USA. To be viable we tively at the scientific evidence. The Royal Society

UK Energy Mix 2011 UK Energy Mix 2035

Renewables Nuclear Renewables Nuclear Natural Gas Hydro Natural Gas Hydro Coal Coal IGCC Coal 1% 4% 11% 21% 20% 21% 48% 6%

21% 40% 7%

Gas plays a growing role en route to a low-carbon future fst journal www.foundation.org.uk March 2016, Volume 21(7) 35 ENERGY FUTURES

The supply potential of shale needs to be proven Whether they are commercially viable is still open to question, but the potential is there. If they can and to do that we must fracture some wells. be developed, there could be a significant boost to jobs, GDP and energy security. The potential of and the Royal Academy of Engineering have shale needs to be proven and in order to do that we reviewed the scientific and engineering evidence need to drill and fracture some wells. Although on hydraulic fracturing. They concluded that the supply chains are currently expensive, if the shale health, safety and environmental risks can be industry develops the supply chains will become managed effectively in the UK by the use of oper- more viable. ational best practices enforced by strong regula- I support the Scottish Government’s moratori- tion. They reported that fracture propagation is um on hydraulic fracturing as an opportunity to an unlikely cause of contamination and that the engage the public in a dialogue about shale gas seismic risks are low. They also noted that robust extraction, although I am not certain that the monitoring of well integrity is vital. extension of the moratorium to 2017 is necessary. In terms of environmental impact and effects It is vitally important that the period of the mor- on the local community, shale developments are atorium is used to engage in a steady programme of spread over a wide area with minimal impact on dialogue. The emotional reaction that people have the surface. They are generally the size of a football about hydraulic fracturing has to be addressed with field and are silent in operation. The drilling and a rational analysis of the risks. Public acceptance fracturing stage creates a building site, but takes will only be gained through a wider understanding only about six months. Once that is completed, we of the need for shale gas and its potential value to have a site that will produce gas for 20 years. communities, backed up with objective, scientific Scotland does have shale gas resources. evidence about the level of risk it presents. ☐ Balancing our energy portfolio

Rebecca Lunn

ver the coming years Scotland will lose over half of its current capacity to gener- SUMMARY ate electricity. Currently Scotland’s elec- tricityO is supplied by gas (10%), nuclear energy • Scotland is set to lose over half its current (35%), coal (20%) and renewables (35%). By 2016 electricity generating capacity due to closure of coal will have been shut down, and by 2023 both of the coal-fired and nuclear power stations. Scotland’s nuclear power stations will be decom- • Scotland will then become a net importer of electricity generated from England and Wales. Professor Rebecca Lunn missioned. That will mean that Scotland will be a FRSE FREng is Head of significant net importer of power from the rest of • Under current UK policy, Scotland’s Department, Civil and the UK. This power will be generated by gas-fired imported power will come from the proposed Environmental Engineering, and new-build nuclear power stations. new fleet of nuclear power stations and from and Professor of Engineering existing gas‑fired power stations. Geosciences, at the Electricity is only 21% of Scotland’s energy con- University of Strathclyde. sumption. 55% goes on heating, and that is met • Reducing Scottish and UK coal consumption to She is an expert in ground almost entirely by gas. Lowering coal consump- meet carbon targets may increase gas engineering and energy tion to meet carbon targets (by closing coal-fired consumption for power production. geosciences. She is also a member of the Scottish stations in Scotland and the rest of the UK) will • The options for meeting future demand are: Government’s Geothermal increase gas consumption still further. A ‘greener’ reducing demand, increasing onshore energy Energy Expert Group and low-carbon future looks more gas-dependent. production, increasing offshore production; and increasing imports. was a member of the UK In the Royal Society of Edinburgh’s report Government’s Advisory 1 Committee on Radioactive Options for Scotland’s Gas Future , we looked at • Decisions have to be made on how to meet Waste Management from four options: reducing demand, increasing off- future energy requirements and what level of 2008-2015. shore gas production, increasing onshore gas pro- energy security risk is acceptable. duction and increasing imports. We considered • Public education and debate is essential to factors such as safety, energy security, health and avoid crisis decision-making. well-being, the environment, climate change, as

36 March 2016, Volume 21(7) fst journal www.foundation.org.uk ENERGY FUTURES

Encouraging a resurgence in North Sea exploration activity is likely to require Scottish Government investment well as economic factors affecting not only the of social justice, since environmental and health industry but also the consumer. impacts often fall on the local population and the local workforce, who may not be receiving the Reducing demand benefits of energy production and consumption. In Scotland over an eight-year period, demand for A significant issue with increasing energy heat has been reduced from 60,000 gigawatt hours imports is Scotland’s energy security. In 2014, 53% (GWh) to 48,000GWh. This has been achieved of our gas was imported, some from regions that through improvements in insulation and by using are politically unstable, such as Qatar, Russia and heat pumps. The major barrier is the cost to Gov- North Africa. Disruption to energy production in ernment as it is principally achieved through these regions could lead to UK energy shortages grants. Reducing demand for heat is a capital and, hence, to social unrest. investment priority for the Scottish Government. Increasing onshore gas production Increasing offshore gas production There are three forms of unconventional Existing oil and gas fields in the North Sea are onshore gas that Scotland could develop: shale mature and, as the remaining volumes of gas gas, coalbed methane and underground coal diminish, are increasingly uncompetitive. gasification. There are significant resources of Increasing offshore gas production requires coalbed methane. exploration to discover new gas fields and may There is media hysteria about unconvention- involve production from less conventional sourc- al gas and the public is confused about hydraulic es, such as deep water reservoirs, tight gas and fracturing. For example, there is talk of hydrau- high pressure/high temperature reservoirs. lic fracturing for coalbed methane, which is Exploration activity in the North Sea has dimin- incorrect; hydraulic fracturing is not required ished to almost nothing over the last two decades for coal-bed methane production. There have and encouraging a resurgence is likely to require been significant problems with pollution in the Scottish Government investment. USA, but these are due to poor regulation. For example, groundwater contamination is not Importing energy caused by hydraulic fracturing or by extracting Importing energy is relatively cheap and is the methane, but because the water that is produced most cost-effective option for the consumer. Yet with the gas could pollute ground water. gas production and transportation still has envi- In the USA, product has been stored in open ronmental and social impacts. Importing our surface ponds, which can leak and pollute drinking energy results in those impacts being outside water aquifers. This is a simple problem to solve, Scotland’s regulatory control. It also raises issues but the process has been very poorly managed. In fst journal www.foundation.org.uk March 2016, Volume 21(7) 37 ENERGY FUTURES

The question is not the UK, all of the independent expert panels have A publicly-informed decision simply ‘Should we concluded that if the industry is well regulated, It is clear that there are no easy options. There are produce shale gas?’ unconventional gas production can be safe. some difficult decisions to be taken. Sticking our because the answer heads in the sand and relying on imports will put from the public and Energy storage and transmission our energy security at risk. We already import over politicians is likely to If Scotland is to decrease its carbon footprint, we 50% of our gas and that proportion is set to rise. be ‘No’. either need to increase our power and heat gener- The question is not simply ‘Should we produce ation from renewable sources or invest in nuclear shale gas?’ because the answer from the public power. The Scottish Government has opted for and politicians is likely to be ‘No’. We need to ask increased renewable production. Most renew- ourselves how we want to source the UK’s future able sources are climate dependent and cannot be energy requirements, what balance of energy relied upon to produce a steady supply. portfolio we want, how much storage capacity we Once Scotland’s existing nuclear power sta- should invest in and how much security risk we tions are closed, we will rely on the rest of the UK are prepared to accept. to maintain a stable baseload power supply. In our report we recommended participatory Hence, to have a sustainable long-term policy decision-making. Citizens’ panels could be used based on renewables, new technologies are to educate people and help shape policy. We need required to enable significant power storage. This to change the public attitude of ‘not in my back- will require investment in technology develop- yard’ and help people understand that if they say ment for power storage. no to domestic production they are, by default, Renewable energy sources are primarily in saying yes to something else if their energy needs remote locations. The current national power are to be met. At the moment I do not think there grid is not designed for transmitting power from is an adequate understanding of that. its extremities; increased renewable production Social justice also comes into this debate. The will also require significant capital investment in UK imports over half of its gas energy – in other the national grid. words, we do not shoulder the environmental There is an urgent need to increase Scotland impact of the energy we consume. Instead, that gas storage capacity in Scotland and the rest of the impact is borne by people a great distance away. If UK. The UK currently has one of the lowest gas we produce our own, we can ensure the industry storage capacities in the world (as a percentage of is well regulated and reduce any impacts to an consumption), which leaves us highly vulnerable absolute minimum. It is critical that we raise the to disruptions in supply. level of debate and discussion on energy. If we In combination with our high percentage of do not, we are likely to end up in crisis. In 2013, gas imports, this results in poor UK energy secu- the UK was one day away from not meeting its rity. Technology exists to store gas in the sub­ gas demand. Crisis-led policy making leads to surface, but there is a need for increased capital poor decisions and poor regulation. ☐ investment, and issues of planning permission and public acceptability are inhibiting progress 1. www.royalsoced.org.uk/cms/files/ onshore. BriefingPaper15-01.pdf

POLITICS, SCIENCE AND MARKET FORCES

Ben Ritchie is a Senior Investment Manager for Pan-European Equities at Aberdeen Asset Management. He gave a short response to the speeches at the beginning of the discussion period.

The energy debate seems to me to be circumscribed by the trinity of politics, science and market forces. Leadership from politicians will be crucial to align these three. Investors obviously want the prospect of returns, but in a context of stability and consistent policy-making. This applies whether we are supporting governments, corporations or individuals. At present, policy is being driven by politics. Scientific evidence and market global market trends are being ignored. Fracturing shale to release gas is an example of this. The word ‘fracking’ is quite emotive, and good policy leadership is critical. Having a general moratorium on fracking is fine in terms of politics but may not result in the right kinds of policies. Blanket bans on fracking also cover the use of unconventional recovery techniques offshore, but these are needed to support growth and production in an industry already facing significant pressures. Policies need to take into account scientific logic and market forces, as well as political influences.

38 March 2016, Volume 21(7) fst journal www.foundation.org.uk ENERGY FUTURES The debate Issues raised in the debate included funding the switch to renewables, shale gas and North Sea investment.

educing household demand for energy is efforts will fail unless there is long-term consis- desirable, but there are different ways of tency in Government policies on taxation, subsi- achieving this. Some thought the priority dy and regulation. Rshould be to use excessive profits from suppliers The Scottish and UK Governments should to lower the cost of heating for people living in recognise the importance of maintaining invest- fuel poverty. This would entail growing the ment in the North Sea, which employs 100,000 renewables sector to increase competition. people and is struggling to reduce costs. Action Others saw the priority as changing household should be taken now to protect offshore fields. behaviour by ensuring that householders have There is a strong case for abating the petroleum full information about their fuel costs and are able revenue tax. to manage their supplies through distributed gen- eration means such as solar panels. Yet will dis- Renewables shortfall tributed generation systems spread quickly Scotland currently overproduces electricity but if enough, now that subsidies are being reduced? it becomes more dependent on renewables, They will always need backup from the grid. whose productivity is intermittent, it could see a shortfall in supply. We should not try to replace Focus on technologies gas with electricity. Instead, more research should Still others favoured a drive for the use of particular be directed at finding ways to counteract the technologies, such as heat pumps. However, none instability of renewables, such as novel technolo- of these measures will be effective in reducing the gies for the storage of electricity. price of energy unless the cost of developing and It is a dangerous assumption that further improving the energy network is raised through indigenous gas resources will not be required in taxion, rather than at the point of purchase. With- the next 20 years. out this change, energy costs for the consumer will Determined leadership is needed to engage continue to rise and fuel poverty increase. the public in the wider energy debate and on the All shared the speakers’ concerns about the safety and environmental acceptability of hydrau- 20-year gap before renewables can replace coal lic fracturing of shale to release gas. and nuclear energy, with the resulting danger of a At present political leadership is focussed on supply crisis. Although much can be done to pro- specific issues – nuclear and fuel poverty – and is mote distributed generation systems, reduce failing to communicate the full facts about wider demand and encourage start-ups and innovation, energy issues to the public. ☐

FURTHER INFORMATION

Scottish Government www.gov.scot

Scotland Office www.gov.uk/government/organisations/scotland-office

Shale Gas Extraction in the UK: A review of hydraulic fracturing, Royal Society/Royal Academy of Engineering report www.royalsociety.org/topics-policy/projects/shale-gas-extraction/report

The Royal Society of Edinburgh www.royalsoced.org.uk

Options for Scotland’s Gas Future, Royal Society of Edinburgh report www.royalsoced.org.uk/cms/files/BriefingPaper15-01.pdf

fst journal www.foundation.org.uk March 2016, Volume 21(7) 39 THE ARCTIC Changes in the Arctic could have major implications for the UK in a number of areas. A meeting of the Foundation for Science and Technology on 4 November 2015 considered how this country should respond to these changes.

Responding to a changing Arctic Robin Teverson

n every Parliamentary session, the House of Lords establishes four ‘ad-hoc’ select com- SUMMARY mittees to look at items of special interest. IEach reports back within a parliamentary year, • The UK is just 320 miles from the Arctic Circle and then the committee dissolves. The Arctic is a and has a longstanding interest in the affairs of part of the globe where a great deal of change is this region. occurring, due especially to climate change and • Too little is still known about the region and the UK could play a major part in increasing Lord Teverson chaired its repercussions – and was therefore a highly top- the House of Lords Select ical subject for an Inquiry1. knowledge. Committee Inquiry on the The Committee did not, however, look at the • There has been a lack of focus on the Arctic Arctic. He has also chaired causes of climate change – just the implications recently which needs to be rectified. the Lords EU External Affairs sub-committee, and has for the UK. We felt it was particularly important • A new balance needs to be struck between the spoken for the Liberal for the British Parliament – and the House of UK’s involvement in north and south polar regions. Democrats on energy and Lords in particular – to take up this issue because • The UK should consider appointing an climate change issues in the the UK is the nearest non-Arctic state and we have ambassador to the Arctic. Lords. He was previously an MEP, representing Cornwall real, longstanding interests there. While there are and Plymouth during the eight states in the Arctic Council, the Shetlands 1990s, and spent his early are a mere 320 miles away from the Arctic Circle. 1996 and has grown in stature. It has started to career in the freight industry. create enforceable agreements: of those, one con- He is also a director of the Marine Management A changing environment cerns oil spills, another focusses on search and Organisation. The minimum area of sea ice cover in the region rescue (which is particularly important in the in summer has almost halved over the past couple context of increasing tourism). of decades. Even more importantly perhaps, the The Council has a number of observers. The volume of ice has gone down by some 75%, UK was one of the first and in 2013 the number was because when the sea refreezes there is only the increased substantially to include India, China, thickness from one year. That does not affect sea South Korea, Singapore and Italy, Poland and level as such. However, looking forward, the dis- Japan. Why the interest from the fast-growing, appearance of the Greenland Ice Sheet would be large Asian economies? Well, for Singapore, for dramatic. This would raise global sea levels by example, it is clearly around freight and transport some 7 metres or 23 feet, which puts the impacts routes, but generally it is the draw of resources. of climate change in the Arctic into perspective! The Arctic is very remote and very different The Committee went to Spitsbergen in Nor- from other parts of the world. Unlike the Antarc- way’s Svalbard archipelago, a mere 800 miles from tic it has no landmass: its high seas are beyond the the North Pole and largely ice-free these days. jurisdiction of individual nations. So there are While it has a population of just 2,000, it has an many challenges. excellent university facility. We discussed a num- The Inquiry did not examine issues of securi- ber of issues with students and staff while there. ty in detail, but this area is not immune from The good news is that the Arctic is one of the geo­political events taking place elsewhere. best-governed regions of the world. The Arctic While we were taking evidence, the Russian Council comprising eight states was founded in annexation of Crimea took place. At the same time there was a huge fall in commodity prices There has been talk of a ‘scramble for the Arctic’. for mineral extractors and oil companies. Both had major effects. Yet the number of vessels transiting the Northern Although the Arctic Council does not deal Passage through Russia remains very small. with military matters, it is based on strong

40 March 2016, Volume 21(7) fst journal www.foundation.org.uk THE ARCTIC

­cooperation in science and in areas like shipping There are two areas in the middle of the Arctic Because the pace and research. One of the important recommen- which are not designated as Exclusive Economic of development is dations that we put forward is that it needs to Zones (EEZ), and there we argued that, in regard likely to be slow, the be isolated from wider international problems. to the fisheries industry, there should be a mora- Committee believes The previous Canadian Government took a torium. Discussions are under way and we very there is time to set robust stance towards Russia and a number of much welcome the progress made in that area. down appropriate meetings did not take place. Generally, though, rules and to find the cooperation in the Arctic has continued and we UK interests right ways to handle welcome that. In the Antarctic, the UK has a strategic interest but development in we have land claims as well. There is also excellent advance, rather The peoples of the Arctic scientific work going on. However, the Inquiry than having to It should be noted that the Council has special concluded that a better balance is needed between respond later. representatives of indigenous people. The Arctic our involvement in north and south polar regions. has some four million inhabitants. Most of these The changes in the permafrost urgently live in Russia, but half a million are indigenous require further research. It is vital to understand people – whether First Nation in Canada, Sami in very much better the impacts of the methane and Scandinavia, Inuit and various Native American carbon in the permafrost and also the methane tribes. With the growth in the number of observ- in the Arctic sea floor. With so much develop- ers, there is a concern that their voices could be ment in remote areas depending upon ice roads, squeezed out. Yet it is clearly important that those permafrost and climate change actually works communities are able not only to survive, but to against on-land development rather than for it. thrive and to be a determinant of development. So there are challenges there as well. There has been talk of a ‘scramble for the Arc- The Inquiry recognised the important work tic’. Yet the number of vessels crossing the North- undertaken by the International Maritime ern Passage around Russia remains very small: Organisation, based in London, especially the ice-breakers remain essential at present. Most new Polar Code. However, further improve- traffic is to existing settlements – not transits ments are still needed in regard to issues like the from one ocean to another. So although these use of heavy fuel oil and black carbon emissions. routes can substantially reduce journeys from the Pacific to other areas, this is not going to be a The UK policy context major area of development in the short term. Although Britain is the ‘nearest neighbour’ with a For mineral extraction, too, the pace of devel- long history of interest in the Arctic, the Inquiry opment will remain slow: indeed, in 2015 Shell felt there had been a certain loss of focus recently stepped back from exploration offshore in the – and this at a time when the rest of the world is Chukchi sea. It is extremely expensive to set up devoting more attention to the region. One of our mining there. One example we heard about was major recommendations was that the UK should from the Yukon in Canada. Just flying one team appoint an Arctic ambassador, as a number of of staff to a mine every two weeks and bringing other countries have done. This should be some- those on leave back to base costs something like one with a scientific background, with some diplo- US$100,000. That indicates the remoteness and matic experience too, who is able to bring together expense involved. all the various strands of policy we have in the UK, Because the pace of development is likely to be whether industrial, environmental or geopolitical. slow, the Committee believes there is time to set The UK already has a framework strategy for down appropriate rules and to find the right ways Arctic policy2. Although supportive of this poli- to handle development in advance, rather than cy, the Committee felt it was too defensive and having to respond later. that Britain should show greater leadership while The area which astonished us most was the of course showing respect for the Arctic nations dramatic lack of knowledge about this region – on the Council. We can be one of the leading whether in terms of mapping and hydrographic observer nations. In conclusion, the House of information, or about ecosystems and scientific Lords will continue its interest in this region and information. Although the Arctic Council and its strive to ensure that the UK plays its full part in various elements carry out a great deal of cooper- the future of the Arctic. ☐ ative science work, there is a huge amount still to do. The UK has a part to play here, working more 1. The House of Lords Arctic Select Committee Report closely with other observer states and Council www.parliament.uk/arcticcom members to make sure that we really do increase 2. www.gov.uk/government/publications/adapting- our knowledge of the region. to-change-uk-policy-towards-the-arctic fst journal www.foundation.org.uk March 2016, Volume 21(7) 41 THE ARCTIC Increasing our engagement Jane Rumble

t is important to recognise that the Arctic is not a homogenous region; it is made up of dif- SUMMARY ferent countries, peoples and interests. Of the Ifour million inhabitants, the overwhelming • The Arctic is not homogeneous: it consists of a majority live in Russia. The northern Norwegian number of different countries, peoples and Arctic is quite well developed, whereas northern interests. Canada is quite sparse in terms of population. • As the nearest neighbour to the Arctic, developments there will inevitably have Jane Rumble is Head Yet it is not an un-governed space: it falls under of the Polar Regions the jurisdictions of eight Arctic States, five of implications for the UK. Department at the Foreign which border the Arctic Ocean and so have asso- • Particular emphasis is being placed on scientific and Commonwealth Office. ciated maritime rights. There has been mining cooperation. She has been Head the Department since January development and hydrocarbon extraction for sev- • The UK’s primary policy objective is that the 2007, previously having eral decades. So, while the beautiful, pristine wil- Arctic should remain peaceful, stable and spent over three years derness depicted in series like Frozen Planet does well‑governed. as Deputy Head. Jane exist, the Arctic is not all like that. • The UK is strengthening bi-lateral agreements started her civil service with Arctic states. career in the Department The UK is the nearest neighbour to the Arctic of the Environment, where and we have maintained a very longstanding inter- she undertook a range est in the region. But current and future changes in of environmental and the Arctic will inevitably have significant implica- So, the framework encapsulates the ways in corporate policy roles, on topics including health and tions for this country (see Table 1, page 43). which the UK has been trying to increase its engage- safety as well as genetically ment using communication and outreach. We have modified crops. A policy framework a focus on education and our website2 is a feeder The Government tried to bring all of these consid- into the UK’s geography curriculum. It is promoted erations together in October 2013, when the UK through the Royal Geographical Society and is published its first Arctic Policy Framework1. It being upgraded to ensure that it is mobile- and tab- was a matter of walking a very delicate tightrope let-compatible and can be viewed on YouTube. at the time. It was important not to overplay our hand The House of Lords Inquiry because of the sensitivities of some of the Arctic The Lords Inquiry has performed a very valuable states. The EU had already put forward an service in bringing focus to a topic that is often ­Arctic Strategy which was not well received. So regarded as both vast and nebulous. It was a very we referred to it as a policy framework rather useful exercise to go through all of the different than a strategy. It would be something we could aspects of the Arctic and its interaction with the deliver through diplomacy, coordination and UK, while not being side-tracked onto climate engagement. change, which is a vast and separate issue. The key principles are set out under three broad The Government’s response was published in pillars. There is the Human Dimension looking at July 20153. The date is important because it was governance and engagement of the indigenous after the General Election, so this is a statement of people in the region. We recognise that the Arctic current Government policy. It endorsed the pre- Council is the pre-eminent body for governance of vious framework, but it also set out a number of Arctic matters and the one that we will engage with. further steps which add to the trajectory of UK However, it does not cover items like fishing, Arctic engagement and interest. defence, security: so there are other forums Some of the key actions have been concerned through which we interact as well. with making sure, as far as possible, that the UK is Within the Environment Dimension, the objec- well represented on the scientific and technical While the beautiful, tive is to gain greater understanding of the Arctic bodies of the Arctic Council. Particular emphasis pristine wilderness through scientific collaboration and to promote has been given to scientific cooperation and in depicted in series policy development on the basis of sound science. fact the UK was one of very few observer states to such as Frozen Planet The third, the Commercial Dimension, includes submit full information on its methane and black does exist, the Arctic energy security, shipping, bio-prospecting and carbon emissions targets. is not all like that. fisheries among other issues. Our team has been representing the UK at

42 March 2016, Volume 21(7) fst journal www.foundation.org.uk THE ARCTIC

­Arctic events around the world. Perhaps sur­ The Arctic falls under prisingly, there are more events about the Arctic the jurisdictions of than about the Antarctic! The recent Glacier eight Arctic States, Conference, hosted by President Obama and US five of which border Secretary of State John Kerry, aimed to coordinate the Arctic Ocean and input to the Paris climate change conference by so have associated the Arctic states and observers, pointing out the maritime rights effects of change on the Arctic. The UK has also been active in the science and innovation network; there are over 75 universities and institutes that have some Arctic focus. A Dan- ish report ranked the UK as fourth in number of citations and third in the number of articles on this topic. So when some of the Arctic States say that the UK is not truly ‘bi-polar’, we can demonstrate NERC that, actually, we are. The UK’s research station in the Arctic Council and ensure that this country is the Ny-Ålesund in the Svalbard archipelago, which well-represented. We are also looking at strength- was the subject of a ‘virtual visit’ by the Lords Com- ening our bi-lateral engagement with the Arctic mittee, is also producing great science. States. There is already a good Memorandum of In regard to our commitment to science in the Understanding (MOU) with Canada, as well as one region, the £15 million investment allocated for with Norway which we are about to renegotiate. 2010-15 is now bearing fruit. The results of sev- We are working with the EU to encourage a pos- eral research projects have already been pub- itive outcome to the fisheries moratorium, as well as lished. A further £16 million has now been engaging in future European Polar Net scientific announced for Arctic research and we are pro- opportunities. We hope that UK companies will moting this across the Arctic states to ensure we involve themselves in the Arctic Business Forum. get international engagement. The UK is also to Within the UK we are looking forward to engag- have a new polar research vessel: although its pri- ing with the newly reinvigorated All-Party Parlia- mary task is to support the UK’s presence in Ant- mentary Group on the Polar Regions, chaired by arctica through science, it will operate in both James Gray with his deputy Neil Carmichael. They north and south polar regions and I am sure it will have an ambitious agenda which we are supporting. do lots of work in the Arctic. We hope to hold a Wilton Park conference in 2016, once again to reinforce the UK’s position in the Strengthening engagement affairs of the region. The intention is to examine The UK’s future priorities can be broadly divided where the UK and the other observer states can sup- into two: ‘international’ and ‘domestic’. The main port the work of the Arctic Council through wider priority remains that the Arctic should remain international forums where the Arctic States them- peaceful, stable and well-governed. Given the selves would be in the minority. ☐ events taking place today, we are not complacent about the effort required from the Arctic States, 1. www.gov.uk/government/publications/adapting- and indeed observer states like the UK, to ensure to-change-uk-policy-towards-the-arctic that this remains the case. Without this, every- 2. www.discoveringthearctic.org.uk thing else is, frankly, completely academic. 3. www.gov.uk/government/publications/ We need to maintain the UK’s commitment to responding-to-a-changing-arctic

Climatic Environmental Economic

Arctic changes have the potential to UK shares a common marine and avian Thought to hold 25% of the world’s affect UK, European and global weather biodiversity with much of the Arctic. undiscovered hydrocarbons. patterns.

Melting ice sheets contribute to global Potential shifts in the distribution of Potential new trade routes. sea level rise. marine species, including fish stocks.

Table 1. Three key areas of interest in the Arctic fst journal www.foundation.org.uk March 2016, Volume 21(7) 43 THE ARCTIC Understanding changes in sea ice

Julia Slingo

ooking at the seasonal evolution of Arctic sea ice cover over recent decades, the evi- SUMMARY dence is clear. As the years progress, the Lcover gradually drops, particularly in summer to • The Arctic is a very complex system which has the minimum in September. Over the decades, seen significant changes. from the 1980s to the present day, sea ice extent • Advances in observations and modelling have moves further and further below the long-term improved our understanding of the region. Dame Julia Slingo DBE FRS average for 1981-2010, with some years lying out- • Further changes are expected in years to come DSc is Chief Scientist at side the 30-year spread, especially in summer. In as the planet continues to warm. the Met Office. She leads a Changes in the Arctic are likely to have impacts team of over 500 scientists recent years there have been some large losses of • working on a broad portfolio summer sea ice cover. further afield. of research that underpins While it is possible to debate whether or not the • Understanding the links between the Arctic and weather forecasting, climate Arctic is changing by cherry-picking individual UK weather and climate is becoming prediction and climate increasingly important. change projections. Since years, reviewing the figures decade-by-decade joining the Met Office, she shows that something very dramatic is happening. has sought to integrate the Another way to characterise this phenomenon UK community in weather is to plot the difference from the long-term average the CryoSat programme has made it possible to and climate research to ensure that the UK receives for each month since records began in 1979. What map the sea ice thickness. maximum benefit from its becomes apparent is an overall decline in sea ice So a really good understanding of ice thickness science investments. cover for all the months of the year. In the early part and hence ice volume is now emerging. What we of the record there is a fairly random variation in the see is that much of the multi-year ice has been lost; monthly anomalies suggesting no seasonal prefer- indeed, a large part of the Arctic now is covered by ence. Then in 2007, a dramatic minimum in sum- single-year ice (or close to). The consequence is mer ice occurs, associated with anomalous wind that a storm like the one that occurred in August patterns over the Arctic: the winds were unusually 2012 can break up the ice cover: this was the princi- strong and quite a lot of the ice was advected across pal reason for dramatic loss that year. These storms the basin, revealing a lot of open water. are unusual, but they occur from time to time and Since then, the Arctic has moved into a differ- could be the final blow for the summer Arctic ice. ent pattern of behaviour with the monthly anom- alies showing a strong annual cycle indicative of Dynamics of Arctic sea ice large ice loss in summer followed by recovery in Arctic sea ice is not static. It does not just form winter. Today, the whole system is much more and melt in the same place, it moves around, driv- fragile in the summer months. The ice re-forms en by the great currents – the ocean circulation in the winter but is lost again quite quickly in the which is strongly influenced by the bathymetry of summer. Is this a tipping-point in a system close the Arctic. In addition, there is a great deal of to the edge of sustainability? fresh water flowing in from the Eurasian conti- By the end of this century, under a high emis- nent. About 40% of the rivers drain into the Arc- sions scenario as envisaged by the International tic. How that fresh water gets mixed into the cen- Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the Arctic may tral Arctic sea is of great interest, but not some- be completely ice-free in summer. While there is thing we understand well yet. a great deal of uncertainty in when that will actu- It should also be recognised that the pattern of ally happen, the IPCC has been very clear about circulation and ice-movement, as well as the the general direction of travel. ocean currents, can be disrupted by changes in atmospheric circulation. With an anti-cyclonic Ice volumes atmospheric circulation, fresh water accumulates However, it is not just the cover but the volume of in the Beaufort Gyre and, in the opposite situa- ice that is important, since it is the volume that tion, fresh water is exported. determines the mass and energy balance. There Why does that matter? Because that changes have been studies for some time based on data the density of the water flowing out of the Arctic from submarines and so forth, but more recently and into the Atlantic and that in turn can affect the

44 March 2016, Volume 21(7) fst journal www.foundation.org.uk THE ARCTIC

Figure 1. Reducing September Arctic sea ice extent: IPCC AR5 IPCC AR5 uncertainty in Arctic 10.0 sea ice predictions

RCP2.6 39 (5) 8.0 RCP8.5 ) 2 6.0 km 6 29 (3) (10 4.0

37 (5) 2.0

0.0 1950 2000 2050 2100 Future pathway depends critically on model skill for current climate

strength of the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation. ing of ice movement in the region. That is what Over recent years, there has been a fall in the salin- the World Meteorological Organisation’s Polar ity of the water in the Beaufort Gyre. At some Predictions Project is concerned with. There are point, that water may propagate out of the Arctic significant challenges here in understanding the and come into the North Atlantic, changing the meteorology of Arctic weather systems, yet this is strength of the thermohaline circulation. vital for successful operations in the Arctic and for ships to cross the Arctic safely in summer. The Arctic is a complex system This is very exciting. The Year of Polar Predic- Some people see the Arctic as a deceptively simple tion – which actually lasts for two years, mid-2017 system: an increase in temperature causes ice to to mid-2019 – will be a major international initia- melt; this results in a darker surface which absorbs tive employing a number of additional observing more of the sun’s energy; and so on. That is a systems around the rim of the Arctic Ocean. It one-dimensional view of the Arctic which bears will complement the more fundamental research little relation to what is actually happening. The that is also going on. region is much more complex. The transport of Prediction tests our current understanding of energy, of salinity, of heat, of fresh water from a system and our ability to simulate it, so this proj- river outflows and indeed pollutants like black ect promises to open up many scientific insights. carbon into the Arctic and out again – all are abso- There has also been a great deal of progress in lutely critical for describing the very subtle energy the last few years in the use of fully-coupled cli- balance of the whole system. mate models for seasonal forecasting of the sum- That complexity explains why the IPCC pro- mer sea ice minimum in the Arctic. The latest jections of September Arctic sea ice have such a models have a much higher resolution in the wide spread. However, it is possible to give a rela- ocean and atmosphere, and the simulation of the tively clear message of where the region is head- Arctic is much-improved. Last year’s forecast of ing. When we take all the IPCC models, in some 4.4 × 1012 m2 for the September monthly mini- instances there might still summer sea ice by the mum in Arctic summer sea ice extent was very end of the century. close to what was observed. If we take only the more realistic models based on their ability to represent observed Arctic sea ice Impacts on the UK behaviour – and there are only a few of them (five So what does a warming Arctic mean for the out of 37) – then we get a different perspective of UK? There has been speculation about Arctic when the Arctic might be ice-free in September; it amplification – that a large warming of the happens sooner rather than later. So there is still ­Arctic is disrupting our weather patterns and much uncertainty which we need to reduce if we are leading to more prolonged spells of settled to get a clear idea of where the climate is heading. ­weather but also some very stormy weather. Is it As the Arctic opens up, there will be an increas- changing the nature of the Jetstream, perhaps? ing need for weather forecasting and the forecast- Well, the jury is still out on this and the fst journal www.foundation.org.uk March 2016, Volume 21(7) 45

6 THE ARCTIC

­latest research does not give this much credence. FURTHER INFORMATION On the other hand, observations do suggest that low Arctic sea ice in summer predisposes us The House of Lords Arctic Select Committee Report to a negative North Atlantic Oscillation in winter www.parliament.uk/arcticcom – in other words it might be a colder winter. Yet this is not the only factor affecting UK weather, Adapting To Change: UK policy towards the Arctic take the big El Nino event this year for example. www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/ There are so many factors that analysing and pre- file/251216/Adapting_To_Change_UK_policy_towards _the_Arctic.pdf dicting what the Arctic itself is doing to our weather is incredibly difficult. House of Lords debate on the Select Committee Report on the Arctic There is a very long way to go before we have the www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201516/ldhansrd/text/151103- ability to give a definitive answer on what the chang- 0001.htm#15110341000427 ing Arctic might mean for the UK. Yet it is hard to believe the changes that are going on there will not Government response to House of Lords report affect the water masses that enter the North Atlantic www.gov.uk/government/publications/responding-to-a-changing-arctic and hence the Thermohaline Circulation. The Gulf Stream is part of that circulation and so under- Arctic Council www.arctic-council.org standing how the changing Arctic will affect the ocean is vital and requires a great deal more work. British Antarctic Survey www.bas.ac.uk The Arctic is a really complex system which has seen significant changes commensurate with glob- Discovering the Arctic www.discoveringthearctic.org.uk al warming. Further changes can be expected as the years go by and the planet continues to warm. Foreign and Commonwealth Office The Arctic will not change linearly, though, www.gov.uk/government/organisations/foreign-commonwealth-office because of the interaction between natural vari- ability and long-term climate change. However, Met Office www.metoffice.gov.uk understanding the links between the Arctic and UK weather and climate is becoming increasingly Scott Polar Research Institute www.spri.cam.ac.uk important and we must make it, and continue to make it, an active area of research. ☐ The debate Issues raised he nature of the changes in the region and of ‘soft sciences’ in Arctic issues could help deal in the debate the resulting opportunities (as well as with potential international problems. included the dangers) are global in their impact. More The stability of the Greenland ice shield is not impact of Tdistant states, such as India and Singapore, under- yet a problem but the impact of melting on global geopolitics, global standably share the UK’s interests and concerns sea levels would be immense. Moreover the effect warming and the about climate, scientific research, energy supply, of a global temperature rise on such ice sheets coordination shipping routes, etc. could be felt for centuries after temperature had of UK efforts. It has been a major success to date to insulate stabilised. international cooperation in the Arctic from wider geopolitical tensions. Can this continue, though? Effects of melting The sanctions against Russia in the wake of its Melting permafrost in the summer will destabilise annexation of Crimea could have adverse conse- buildings, cut off transport links and potentially quences for research and other cooperation in the release large quantities of methane, a potent green- Arctic. The more that major countries outside the house gas. Changes of water temperature influence region see their interests being directly affected by fish habitats. For example, cod are seeking cooler events in the Arctic, the more likely that friction waters by moving north from the Labrador coast. and conflict may arise, not only between those The UK’s potential contribution to develop- states but also between them and the eight Arctic ments in the Arctic extends well beyond science States. Not all states interested in the region can be into areas such as oil, gas and minerals develop- relied upon to consider the concerns of the indige- ments, as well as law, finance and insurance. nous population too. Perhaps greater application These interests could be better coordinated. ☐

46 March 2016, Volume 21(7) fst journal www.foundation.org.uk EVENTS

Using science to authenticate, verify or The Future of the Energy Sector in Scotland Professor Jane E Francis, Director, British assure the identity of people and things 22 October 2015 Antarctic Survey [Panellist] 2 March 2016 Phil Boswell MP, MP for Coatbridge, Sir Mark Walport FRS FMedSci, the Chryston & Bellshill, House of Commons Is the Haldane Principle fit for purpose in Government Chief Scientific Adviser Iain Conn FREng FRSE, Chief Executive, the 21st Century? Professor Sue Black OBE FRSE, Professor of Centrica plc 3 June 2015 Anatomy and Forensic Anthropology at the Gary Haywood, Chief Executive Officer, The Lord Hennessy of Nympsfield FBA, University of Dundee INEOS Shale Member, House of Lords Select Committee Dr Derek Craston, the Government Chemist Professor Rebecca Lunn FRSE FREng, Head on Science and Technology, House of Lords and Managing Director of Science and of Department, Civil and Environmental The Lord Rees of Ludlow OM Kt FRS, Innovation at LGC Engineering, Professor of Engineering Former President, The Royal Society Geosciences, University of Strathclyde The Rt Hon David Willetts, Former Minister Bringing science to the heart of Ben Ritchie, Senior Investment Manager, of Universities and Science government: the Nurse Review of the Pan-European Equities, Aberdeen Asset Professor Jane Elliott, Chief Executive, Research Councils Management [Panellist] Economic and Social Research Council 12 January 2016 [Panellist] Sir Paul Nurse FRS FMedSci, Chair, the Nurse The Dowling Review of Business-University Review of the Research Councils, and Research Collaborations A framework for making policy choices: Director, The Francis Crick Institute 7 October 2015 bridging the gap between scientific and Professor Phil Nelson FREng, Chair, RCUK Professor Dame Ann Dowling DBE FRS value judgements Executive Group and Chief Executive, FREng, President, Royal Academy of 20 May 2015 Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Engineering Sir Mark Walport FRS FMedSci, Government Council Sir Peter Gregson FREng, Vice-Chancellor Chief Scientific Adviser, Government Office Gareth Davies, Director General, Business and Chief Executive, Cranfield University for Science and Science, Department for Business, Eric Hawthorn, Managing Director, Radio Professor Angela R McLean FRS, Innovation and Skills Design Ltd Co-Director, Institute for Emerging Professor Dame Jocelyn Bell Burnell DBE FRS Professor Jeremy Watson CBE FREng FIET, Infections, University of Oxford FRAS PRSE, President, The Royal Society of Professor of Engineering Systems, John Pullinger, National Statistician, Head, Edinburgh [Panellist] University College London [Panellist] Government Statistical Service and Chief Executive, UK Statistics Authority Closing the US/UK productivity gap: How can international research be connecting innovation and research to mobilised to drive down the cost of What are the lessons learned from the economic output renewables, storage and smart grids to response to the Ebola outbreak? 2 December 2015 achieve parity with coal fired electricity 25 March 2015 Dr Ruth McKernan CBE, Chief Executive, generation? Professor Chris Whitty CB FMedSci, Innovate UK 8 July 2015 Chief Scientific Adviser, Department for Professor Jonathan Haskel, Professor of Sir David King ScD, FRS, HonFREng, International Development Economics, Imperial College Business School The Foreign Secretary’s Special Dr W Ripley Ballou, Vice-President and Head, Clinical Research and Translational Tony Harper, Head of Research and Advanced Representative for Climate Change, Foreign Science, Vaccine Discovery and Systems Engineering, Jaguar Land Rover and Commonwealth Office Development, GSK Vaccines Dr Bernie Bulkin, Director, Ludgate Dr Oliver Johnson, Programme Director, Responding to a changing Arctic: The House Investments Ltd the King’s Sierra Leone Partnership of Lords Arctic Select Committee Report Ed Heartney, Environment, Science, Dr Gina Radford, Deputy Chief Medical 4 November 2015 Technology and Health Counsellor, Officer for England, Department of Health The Lord Teverson, Chair, House of Lords Embassy of the United States of America in Select Committee on the Arctic, House of London Our plan for growth: science and innovation Lords Sir Colin Humphreys FRS FREng, (Cm 8980) Jane Rumble, Head, Polar Regions Department of Materials Science, University 4 February 2015 Department, Foreign and Commonwealth of Cambridge [Panellist] The Rt Hon Greg Clark MP, Minister of Office State for Universities, Science and Cities, Professor Dame Julia Slingo DBE FRS, Chief The business of the environment: can the Department for Business, Innovation & Scientist, Met Office tension be resolved between resource Skills and Cabinet Office extraction and environmental protection? Professor Dame Ann Dowling DBE FRS The Accelerated Access Review for the 24 June 2015 FREng, President, Royal Academy of Department of Health (the Taylor Review) Professor Duncan Wingham, Chief Engineering 26 October 2015 Executive, Natural Environment Research Dr Mike Lynch OBE FRS FREng, Founder, Sir Hugh Taylor KCB, Chair, Accelerated Council Invoke Capital Access Review, Department of Health Professor Simon Pollard, Pro-Vice- Professor Alex Halliday, Physical Secretary Sir Leszek Borysiewicz FRS FRCP FMedSci Chancellor, School of Energy, Environment and Vice-President, The Royal Society [Panellist] FLSW, Vice-Chancellor, University of and Agrifood, Cranfield University Cambridge The Lord Oxburgh, House of Lords

Presentations and audio from all Foundation events are available at www.foundation.org.uk

fst journal www.foundation.org.uk March 2016, Volume 21(7) 47 EVENTS

Reception Government Chief Scientific Adviser, Turning knowledge into value: adding value 3 December 2014 Government Office for Science to the marine sector from research and The Rt Hon David Willetts MP, MP for David Davies MP, MP for Monmouth innovation Havant Professor Jim Skea CBE, Imperial College 10 March 2014 Sir Mark Walport FRS FMedSci, London and the Committee on Climate Professor Ralph Rayner, Sector Director Government Chief Scientific Adviser, Change Energy and Environment, BMT Group Government Office for Science The Rt Hon Peter Lilley MP, MP for Hitchin Professor Ed Hill OBE, Executive Director, and Harpenden National Oceanography Centre The Hauser Review of the Catapult Network Making the most of UK/China research and Professor Rick Spinrad, Vice-President for 12 November 2014 innovation partnerships Research, Oregon State University, Dr Hermann Hauser CBE FRS FREng, 11 June 2014 President-Elect, Marine Technology Society Chair, Hauser Review of the Catapult Professor Tony Cheetham FRS, Treasurer Professor Richard Clegg, Managing Director, Network and Vice-President, The Royal Society The Lloyd’s Register Foundation [Panellist] Simon Edmonds, Director, Catapult Michael Kwok, Managing Director and Programme, Innovate UK Head, Shanghai Office, Arup The challenge of communicating uncertainty Adrian Allen, Commercial Director, Professor Robin Grimes FREng, Chief in risk estimates to decision-makers University of Sheffield Advanced Scientific Adviser, Foreign and 5 February 2014 Manufacturing Research Centre (AMRC) Commonwealth Office Sir Mark Walport FRS FMedSci, with Boeing The Rt Hon David Willetts MP, Minister of Government Chief Scientific Adviser, State for Universities and Science, Department Government Office for Science Maximising the strengths of the research for Business, Innovation and Skills Tom Bolt, Director, Performance and innovation base in Scotland (debate in Measurement, Lloyd’s of London Edinburgh co-organised with The Royal Making the most of UK/China research and Judith Hackitt CBE, Chair, Health and Society of Edinburgh) innovation partnerships (Round-table Safety Executive 29 October 2014 discussion ahead of the evening debate) Dr Michelle Harrison, CEO, Government Professor Muffy Calder OBE FRSE 11 June 2014 and Public Sector Practice, WPP [Panellist] FREng FBCS, Chief Scientific Adviser for Sir John Boyd KCMG, Chairman, Asia Scotland House The economics of decarbonisation of the UK Professor Alice Brown CBE FRSE FRSA, Michael Kwok, Managing Director and electricity supply: how much are we prepared Chair, Scottish Funding Council Head, Shanghai Office, Arup to pay to meet carbon reduction targets? Anne Richards CVO CBE, Global Chief 27 November 2013 Investment Officer, Aberdeen Asset Responding to the rapid increase of James Smith CBE, Chairman, The Carbon Management Antimicrobial Resistance (AMR) in organisms Trust 4 June 2014 Dr David Clarke FREng, Chief Executive, How can the UK transport network be made Dame Sally Davies DBE FMedSci, Chief Energy Technologies Institute more resilient to extreme weather events? Medical Officer for England and Chief Baroness Verma, Parliamentary Under- 22 October 2014 Scientific Adviser, Department of Health Secretary, Department for Energy and Richard Brown CBE, Chairman, Transport Dr Jeremy Farrar OBE FMedSci, Director, Climate Change Resilience Review for the Department for The Wellcome Trust Transport Dr Patrick Vallance FRCP FMedSci, An international initiative to drive down the Doug Johnson, Deputy Director Applied President, Pharmaceuticals R&D, GSK cost of solar and associated storage Science and Scientific Consultancy, Met 27 November 2013 Office Delivering the Agri-tech Strategy: improving Sir David King FRS, Foreign Secretary’s Jerry England, Group Asset Management the quality and productivity of the UK food Special Representative for Climate Change, Director, Network Rail production and processing sectors Foreign and Commonwealth Office 21 May, 2014 Ian Simm, Chief Executive, Impax Asset Science and Society programmes: what are George Freeman MP, MP for Mid-Norfolk, Management the best ways of measuring success? House of Commons (Round-table discussion) Dr Peter Bonfield OBE FREng, Independent Maximising the value of UK strengths in 16 October 2014 Chair, British Food Plan, Defra and Chief research, innovation and higher education Sir Roland Jackson Bt, Executive Chair, Executive, BRE Group 13 November 2013 The Lord Haskins, Former Chairman Sciencewise Professor Sir John O’Reilly, Director General, Northern Foods and House of Lords Professor Nick Pidgeon MBE, Professor of Knowledge and Innovation, Department for Applied Psychology, School of Applied Business, Innovation and Skills Psychology, Cardiff University Policy choices for the reduction of bovine tuberculosis (TB) Ben Ritchie, Senior Investment Manager, 2 April 2014 Pan-European Equity, Aberdeen Asset Regulating charities: a Whitehall Management Adam Quinney, Farmer and former perspective (House of Lords Luncheon for Professor Geoff Rodgers, Pro-Vice Vice-President, NFU Learned and Professional Societies) Chancellor for Research, Brunel University 3 October 2014 Professor Rosie Woodroffe, Senior Peter Marsh, Author ‘The New Industrial Research Fellow, Institute of Zoology, Ben Harrison MBE, Policy Manager, Office Revolution’ and former Manufacturing Zoological Society of London for Civil Service at the Cabinet Office Editor, Financial Times [Panellist] Dr Miles Parker OBE FSB, Senior Research What is the right level of response to Associate, Centre for Science and Policy, anthropogenic induced climate change? University of Cambridge 16 June 2014 Professor Chris Gaskell CBE, Principal, Sir Mark Walport FRS FMedSci, Royal Agricultural University

48 March 2016, Volume 21(7) fst journal www.foundation.org.uk The Foundation is grateful to the following companies, departments, research bodies and charities for their support for the debate programme.

A Higher Education Funding Council for Smith Institute for Industrial Aberdeen Asset Management England Mathematics and System Engineering AIRTO I Society for General Microbiology Arts and Humanities Research Council Imperial College London Society of Maritime Industries AstraZeneca Innovate UK (formerly Technology Sovcomflot (UK) Atkins Limited Strategy Board) Stemnet Institute of Mathematics and its B T Applications BAE Systems The Academy of Medical Sciences Institution of Chemical Engineers Babcock International Group The British Standards Institution Institution of Mechanical Engineers BCS, The Chartered Institute for IT The Institution of Engineering and Biotechnology and Biological Sciences J Technology Research Council Japan Society for the Promotion of The Kohn Foundation Science BP The Lloyd’s Register Foundation Jisc BPE Innovation The Medical Schools Council John Browne Charitable Trust BRE Group The Michael John Trust Johnson Matthey British Academy The Nautical Institute British Geological Survey K The Royal Academy of Engineering Brunel University King’s College London The Royal Commission for the Exhibition BSI Group L of 1851 Landscape Institute C The Royal Society Lloyd’s of London Canterbury Christ Church University The Wellcome Trust Lloyd’s Register Group Caparo Group Transport Systems Catapult Cardiff University London School of Hygiene & Tropical TWI Chartered Institute of Plumbing and Medicine Heating Engineering London South Bank University U University College London City & Guilds of London Institute M University of Aberdeen City University London McLaren Racing Ltd Comino Foundation Medical Research Council University of Birmingham Cranfield University Met Office University of Bristol University of Cambridge D N Department for Business, Innovation National Oceanography Centre University of Chichester and Skills National Physical Laboratory University of Dundee Department for Environment, Food and Natural Environment Research Council University of East Anglia Rural Affairs Natural History Museum University of Edinburgh Department of Health Network Rail University of Glasgow DWF Nottingham Trent University University of Kent E University of Leeds Economic and Social Research Council P Parliamentary and Scientific Committee University of Leicester Energy Institute Premmit Associates University of Nottingham Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council Public Health England University of Reading Environment Agency Q University of Sheffield ERA Foundation Queen Mary, University of London University of Southampton Queen's University Belfast University of Strathclyde G Genomics England R University of Warwick GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) Risk Solutions University of Wolverhampton H Rolls-Royce W Heads of University Centres of Royal Society of Biology Wheatsheaf Group Biomedical Science (HUCBMS) Royal Society of Chemistry Wiley-Blackwell, John Wiley & Sons Health and Safety Executive RPS Energy Willis Towers Watson High Value Manufacturing Catapult S X Higher Education Academy Science & Technology Facilities Council XL Catlin The Journal of The Foundation for Science and Technology

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