journal The Journal of The Foundation for Science and Technology fstVolume 22 Number 5 July 2019 www.foundation.org.uk

Editorial Gavin Costigan: Addressing the complex issues facing society

Reducing carbon emissions Nick Bridge: Delivering the goals of the Paris Agreement Professor Qi Ye: Beyond the current climate process Baroness Bryony Worthington: Moving the process forward Emma Howard Boyd: Taking practical steps Professor Nick Robins: The third goal of the Agreement

Tackling the risk of pandemic flu Professor Chris Whitty: Preparing against a flu pandemic Dr Andrew Coburn: Examining the impacts on society Professor Rachel McKendry: The digital component The National Risk Register of Civil Emergencies

Technology and the law Sir Geoffrey Vos: Employing technology to improve the delivery of justice Susan Acland-Hood: Adopting new technology for a modern justice system Professor Richard Susskind: Upgrading the justice system

Research and development Looking to the future

Civil society A vision for the next decade COUNCIL AND TRUSTEES

VICE-PRESIDENTS CHIEF EXECUTIVE The Earl of Selborne GBE FRS Gavin Costigan Dr Dougal Goodman OBE FREng COUNCIL AND TRUSTEE BOARD Chair Professor Polina Bayvel CBE FRS FREng The Rt Hon the Lord Willetts* FRS Sir John Beddington CMG FRS FRSE HonFREng Deputy Chair Mr Justice Birss The Baroness O’Neill of Bengarve* CH CBE FBA FRS FMedSci Sir Drummond Bone FRSE Professor Sir Leszek Borysiewicz FRS FRCP FMedSci FLSW DL President, The Royal Society The Lord Broers FRS FREng HonFMedSci Sir Venki Ramakrishnan PRS FMedSci Sir Donald Brydon* CBE President, Royal Academy of Engineering Sir Anthony Cleaver HonFREng Professor Dame Ann Dowling OM DBE FRS FREng Sir Gordon Duff FRCP FRCPE FMedSci FRSE President, British Academy Dr Paul Golby CBE FREng Sir David Cannadine PBA The Lord Haskel* President, The Academy of Medical Sciences Professor The Lord Hennessy of Nympsfield FBA Professor Sir Robert Lechler PMedSci Dr Julian Huppert President, The Royal Society of Edinburgh Professor Sir David King ScD FRS HonFREng Dame Anne Glover DBE CBE FRSE FRS The Lord Krebs Kt FRS FMedSci Hon DSc President, The Learned Society of Wales The Rt Hon Sir Norman Lamb MP Sir Emyr Jones Parry GCMG FInstP PLSW Professor The Lord Mair CBE FRS FREng Chair, EngineeringUK Sir Robert Margetts CBE FREng Malcolm Brinded CBE FREng Dr Sarah Main* President, The Science Council Dr Julie Maxton* CBE Professor Sir Keith Burnett CBE FRS Stephen Metcalfe MP Executive Chair, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, Jonathan Neale UKRI The Rt Hon the Baroness Neville-Jones DCMG Professor Lynn Gladden CBE FRS FREng Sir Paul Nurse FRS FMedSci HonFREng Executive Chair, Economic and Social Research Council, UKRI Chi Onwurah* MP Professor Jennifer Rubin The Lord Oxburgh KBE FRS HonFREng Executive Chair, Research England, UKRI The Lord Rees of Ludlow OM Kt FRS David Sweeney Dr Peter Ringrose Executive Chair, Arts and Humanities Research Council, UKRI The Baroness Sharp of Guildford Professor Andrew Thompson Dr Hayaatun Sillem* FIET Executive Chair, Science and Technology Facilities Council, UKRI Professor Sir Adrian Smith FRS Professor Mark Thomson Phil Smith CBE Executive Chair, Medical Research Council, UKRI Professor Sir Michael Sterling FREng Professor Fiona Watt FRS FMedSci Sir Hugh Taylor KCB Executive Chair, Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research The Lord Trees HonFRSE Council, UKRI The Baroness Wilcox Professor Melanie Welham Sir Peter Williams CBE FRS FREng Executive Chair, Natural Environment Research Council, UKRI The Lord Willis of Knaresborough Professor Duncan Wingham Interim Executive Chair, Innovate UK, UKRI Honorary Treasurer Dr Ian Campbell John Neilson* Chair, Steering Board, UK Space Agency Honorary Secretary Dr Sally Howes OBE Patrick McHugh* *Trustee Board Member

The Foundation for Science and Technology FST Journal was redesigned in 2015 by IOP Publishing’s Design Studio, under the 10 Carlton House Terrace art direction of Andrew Giaquinto. IOP Publishing provides publications through London SW1Y 5AH which leading-edge scientific research is distributed worldwide and is central to the Institute of Physics, a not‑for-profit society. Tel: 020 7321 2220 Email: [email protected] FST Journal publishes summaries of all the talks given at its meetings. Full audio recordings are available at www.foundation.org.uk Neither the Foundation nor the Editor is responsible for the opinions of the Editor Dr Dougal Goodman OBE FREng contributors to FST Journal.

Production Editor Simon Napper © 2019 The Foundation for Science and Technology Layout Simon Clarke ISSN 1475-1704 Charity Number: 00274727 Company Number: 01327814 CONTENTS

journal fstVolume 22 Number 5 July 2019 THE COUNCIL AND TRUSTEES OF THE FOUNDATION Inside front cover

EDITORIAL Addressing the complex issues facing society Gavin Costigan 2

UPDATE UK legislates to achieve zero-emissions by 2050 • IPBES report warns of ‘unprecented’ threat 3 to biological diversity • Delivering world-class research/innovation • Antarctic ice shelf melting 10 times faster than average

REDUCING CARBON EMISSIONS Delivering the goals of the Paris Agreement Nick Bridge 5 Beyond the current climate process Professor Qi Ye 7 Moving the process forward Baroness Bryony Worthington 10 Taking practical steps Emma Howard Boyd 12 The third goal of the Agreement Professor Nick Robins 12

TACKLING THE RISK OF PANDEMIC FLU Preparing against a flu pandemic Professor Chris Whitty 14 Examining the impacts on society Dr Andrew Coburn 17 The digital component Professor Rachel McKendry 20 The National Risk Register of Civil Emergencies 22

TECHNOLOGY AND THE LAW Employing technology to improve the delivery of justice Sir Geoffrey Vos 24 Adopting new technology for a modern justice system Susan Acland-Hood 26 Upgrading the justice system Professor Richard Susskind 28

RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT Looking to the future 31

CIVIL SOCIETY A vision for the next decade 32

fst journal www.foundation.org.uk July 2019, Volume 22(5) 1 EDITORIAL The Chief Executive of the Foundation for Science and Technology outlines some of the ways in which the organisation will aim to expand its activities and impact. Addressing the complex issues facing society Gavin Costigan

have always believed that complicated things • the way technology is changing medicine and really are complicated. This does not mean healthcare; that they are not possible or should be put on • data science, artificial intelligence and the Ithe ‘too difficult’ pile – but they are complex. internet of things. Some, like climate change, need to be tackled for our continued survival while others have major We will also look at different sectors of the implications for the way we live our lives. That is economy and specific technologies – often linked Gavin Costigan became why I have an aversion to statements that include to reports by Government or Parliament – and the Chief Executive of the phrases like: “It’s really very simple.” The most explore how realistic suggested approaches might Foundation for Science important and challenging problems facing soci- be. Events, as yet unknown, will also shape the and Technology in February ety are not simple and not easy – simple and easy programme. 2019. From 2010 to 2019 he worked at the University have been done already. Our traditional way of bringing people togeth- of Southampton, his last While we may appreciate the complexities of er to explore these complex issues has been via role being Director of Public the environments in which we work, I cannot be larger evening discussions and smaller, daytime Policy, responsible for the only one who has fallen into the trap of mak- round-table meetings. Event reports are posted increasing the policy impact of research at the University. ing false assumptions about how simple and easy on our website and published in the Journal you He also established, and it should be for someone else to deliver some- are reading. Yet if our aim is to provide a platform was the inaugural chair thing. One reason why systems are complicated to explore complex problems from different per- of, the Universities Policy is that they usually require inputs, solutions and spectives, we need to engage a diverse range of Engagement Network (UPEN). Prior to this, trade-offs from a range of different parts, each views and use a variety of means to achieve this. he was a civil servant in one of which has, in turn, its own complexity. So in the coming year, we will be exploring new central Government for So how can an organisation like the Founda- ways of providing that neutral platform for debate nearly 17 years, in what is tion for Science and Technology support the – as well as continuing the successful established now the Department for Business, Enterprise & complicated process of responding effectively to formats. Initiatives will include: Industrial Strategy (BEIS), the challenges that we face? The Foundation pro- as well as in the Foreign & vides a neutral platform for Government, Parlia- Getting out of London: the Foundation will seek to Commonwealth Office. His ment, industry and the research community to bring more people into discussions on key topics roles included leading the network of science attachés discuss key issues which have science, technology by holding meetings in different venues across the in UK embassies, managing and innovation elements. Its involvement will not UK. London will still be a central location for our the Large Facilities Capital ‘solve’ these problems (although it may help meetings, but we will actively partner with others Fund within the Science demonstrate that they are more complicated than to hold events elsewhere as well. Budget, and reviewing the governance of Research first thought) but it does provide a place to explore Communications: a website redesign, use of social Council Institutes. that complexity. media and filming speakers at events will draw Some of the challenges we will debate in the more people to the debates we are having, allowing coming years are already clear and are likely to be further discussion online. A new podcast will look recurring themes: at issues at the boundary of Parliament, Govern- • climate change, its prevention and ment, industry and the research community. mitigation, as well as the technologies Flexible formats: evening meetings work well for available to do so; some participants but not others, particularly • the Government’s Industrial Strategy and the those with caring responsibilities and those who various challenges it contains; need to travel further to get home. So we will mix- • Brexit and its impact on the industrial and and-match our events to increase the range of research communities; people taking part.

2 July 2019, Volume 22(5) fst journal www.foundation.org.uk EDITORIAL

Early and mid-career participants: the Foundation We will widen the diversity of our speakers and will for Science and Technology has a long tradition of securing senior-level participation, both as speak- never have an event with an all-male panel. ers and attendees. However, this can miss crucial input from early- and mid-career professionals The complex challenges faced by society need from industry, academia and the civil service. We input from people in Government and in Parlia- will create new mechanisms to secure participation ment, from industry and from the research com- from this group, including piloting a new Future munity. That is where the Foundation for Science Leaders programme of activities, and allowing and Technology has impact: bringing that diverse their voices to be heard as speakers and panellists. group of people together to focus on that which is Diversity: we will widen the diversity of our speakers complicated. It has been doing this successfully and will never have an event with an all-male panel. for over 40 years, the past 18 of which have been FST Journal is another area where we aim to under the guidance of my predecessor Dr Dougal make changes and improvements, with online Goodman, who retired in February. He leaves an versions of articles linking to audio or video files, enormous legacy and I hope that I can build on or slide presentations. I would welcome your that in the months and years ahead. ☐ views on that, and on all the ideas above – please Gavin Costigan do drop me an email. [email protected]

UPDATE UK legislates to achieve zero-emissions by 2050

Prime Minister Theresa May has Policies will have to ramp up signifi- introduced an amendment to the cantly for a ‘net-zero’ emissions target to Climate Change Act which will make be credible, given that most sectors of the UK the first G7 country to legislate the economy will need to cut their emis- to reach net zero emissions by 2050. The sions to zero by 2050. The Committee’s change was introduced via a Statutory conclusion that the UK can achieve a Instrument which was laid in Parliament ­net-zero GHG target by 2050 and at ac- on 12 June and does not require a vote. ceptable cost is entirely contingent on No10 has also dismissed the claim made the introduction without delay of clear, by Chancellor Philip Hammond that stable and well-designed policies across achieving such a target could cost the the emitting sectors of the economy. UK economy £1 trillion and result in The overall costs of the transition to public spending cuts. a net-zero economy are manageable but The Committee on Climate Change they must be fairly distributed. Rapid (CCC) issued a report in May saying that cost reductions in essential technolo- the UK can end its contribution to glob- gies such as offshore wind and batteries al warming within 30 years by setting an for electric vehicles mean that a net-zero ambitious new target to reduce its green- The costs of the transition greenhouse gas target can be met at an house gas emissions to zero. Achieving annual cost of up to 1-2% of GDP to 2050. a ‘net-zero’ target by the middle of the to a net-zero economy are There are a range of benefits from the century is in line with the UK’s commit- manageable but must be transition to a zero-carbon economy, ment under the Paris Agreement says the fairly distributed. says the Committee. These include bene- Committee. fits to people’s health from better air qual- However, while the CCC rejected the include: a supply of low-carbon electric- ity, less noise thanks to quieter vehicles, use of international carbon credits in ity, efficient buildings and low-carbon more active travel thanks to increased achieving the target, the Government heating, electric vehicles, developing rates of cycling and walking, healthier will allow it. carbon capture and storage technolo- diets, and increased recreational benefits The CCC report found that the foun- gy and low-carbon hydrogen, stopping from changes to land use. dations are in place throughout the UK biodegradable waste going to landfill. • See feature on pages 5-13 and the policies required to deliver key However, these policies must be urgent- www.theccc.org.uk/publication/net- pillars of a net-zero economy are al- ly strengthened – current policy is not zero‑the-uks-contribution-to-stopping- ready active or in development. These enough even for existing targets. global-warming fst journal www.foundation.org.uk July 2019, Volume 22(5) 3 UPDATE

IPBES report warns of ‘unprecented’ threat to biological diversity Nature is declining globally at rates than ever. We are eroding the very foun- ry have now acknowledged that, by its unprecedented in human history — dations of our economies, livelihoods, very nature, transformative change can and the rate of species extinctions food security, health and quality of life expect opposition from those with inter- is accelerating, with grave impacts worldwide. ests vested in the status quo, but also that on people around the world now “The Report also tells us that it is not such opposition can be overcome for the likely, warns a report from the too late to make a difference, but only broader public good,” Watson said. Intergovernmental Science-Policy if we start now at every level from local Compiled by 145 expert authors from Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem to global,” he said. “Through ‘transfor- 50 countries over the past three years, Services (IPBES) published in Paris at the mative change’, nature can still be con- with inputs from another 310 contribut- beginning of May. served, restored and used sustainably ing authors, the report assesses changes “The overwhelming evidence of the – this is also key to meeting most other over the past five decades, providing a Global Assessment, from a wide range global goals. By transformative change, comprehensive picture of the relation- of different fields of knowledge, presents we mean a fundamental, system-wide ship between economic development an ominous picture,” said IPBES Chair, reorganization across technological, pathways and their impacts on nature. It Sir Robert Watson. “The health of eco- economic and social factors, including also offers a range of possible scenarios systems on which we and all other spe- paradigms, goals and values.” for the coming decades. cies depend is deteriorating more rapidly “The member States of IPBES Plena- www.ipbes.net Antarctic ice shelf Delivering world-class research/innovation melting 10 times UK Research and Innovation (UKRI) has published a series of Delivery Plans, faster than average outlining how the organisation will A section of the world’s largest ice shelf in work with its partners to ensure that Antarctica – around the size of Spain – is world-leading research and innovation melting 10 times faster than average and continues to flourish in the UK. The warm ocean currents beneath it are to plans highlight the areas of focus and blame. A team from the National Institute key activities of UKRI’s nine constituent of Water and Atmospheric Research councils as well as a number of cross- (NIWA) in New Zealand, University of cutting themes. Cambridge and British Antarctic Survey, UKRI Chief Executive, Professor Sir studied the north-western corner of the Mark Walport (pictured), noted: “The Ross Ice Shelf to build up a record of how it delivery plans are the blueprints for Sir Mark Walport: a blueprint for UKRI’s is melting, and the key processes driving it. UKRI’s ambition to deliver the future of ambition to deliver the future of research The findings are significant because research and innovation. They outline the stability of ice shelves is generally how we will address the major global and in addition, a plan covering cross-UKRI thought to be related to their exposure societal challenges of our time, catalyse initiatives. This details the six themes to warm deep ocean water. However, the collaboration and contribute to meeting that guide the organisation’s approach to study shows that surface ocean heat also the Government’s ambitious target of delivering the 2.4% target: plays a crucial role. 2.4% GDP spend.” • Business environment: delivering Although the interactions between ice He added: “UKRI has had a strong economic, social and cultural impact and ocean occurring hundreds of metres first year – the Future Leaders Fellow- • Places: supporting growth across below the surface of ice shelves seem ships programme, the Strength in Places the UK remote, they have a direct impact on Fund and the Industrial Strategy Chal- • Ideas: building partnerships and long-term sea level. Floating ice shelves lenge Fund are all examples of the differ- addressing challenges stabilise the ice sheet, and loss of the ence we can make working together as • People: creating the skills and major ice shelves would lead to acceler- one organisation.” environment required for research and ating ice flow and sea level rise of several The Delivery Plans have been devel- innovation to thrive metres or more. Currently the largest ice oped with input from across UKRI’s • Infrastructure: enabling access to, shelves are melting slowly; but smaller research and innovation communities and investing in, world-leading research ice shelves that float in seawater just 3˚C and build upon the Strategic Prospectus, and innovation infrastructure above freezing point are melting 100-200 published in May 2018, which outlined • International: fostering global times faster, showing the impact that UKRI’s vision, mission and values. partnerships and tackling global warm ocean water can have. Delivery plans have been published challenges. www.bas.ac.uk by the nine constituent councils with, www.ukri.org/about-us/delivery-plans

4 July 2019, Volume 22(5) fst journal www.foundation.org.uk CLIMATE CHANGE The 2015 Paris Agreement set out a global response to the challenge of climate change. But can the goals set then be achieved? This question was debated at a meeting of the Foundation for Science and Technology on 16 January 2019. Delivering the goals of the Paris Agreement Nick Bridge

The UK, for example, has huge economic oppor- SUMMARY tunities from low carbon technologies. As global population increases, so resource • Tackling climate change offers huge potential use goes up together with economic activity. By benefits to society 2020, emissions of CO2 will be between 40 and 50 • A steep downward trajectory in emissions is billion tonnes per year. From that peak, the needed to reach zero by mid-century world has to dramatically reduce emissions: by • New alignments and coalitions must be made in 2030, pretty much every dollar and cent of invest- Nick Bridge was appointed order to take the process forward in 2020 ment globally has to go into sustainable finance. Special Representative • The economics of low-carbon technologies are Innovation is essential. for Climate Change by the changing radically Foreign Secretary in May The big technological challenges have to be 2017. He was Permanent • Delivering the Paris Agreement goals is solved and shown to work at a commercial scale. Representative of the United everyone’s business. These have to deliver a really savage downward Kingdom to the OECD from trajectory to get close to a net-zero emissions posi- 2011 to 2016. Previously, he served as Chief tion around the middle of the century. In addition, Economist at the Foreign and he Paris Agreement sets the target global there must be a huge amount of forest growth and Commonwealth Office and temperature increase as well below 2 °C other ways of taking carbon out of the ecosystem. Head of the Global Economy and ideally 1.5 °C while the 2018 report While all this is technically achievable, the Department. He spent over a decade in diplomatic Tfrom the International Panel on Climate Change dramatic nature of the required reductions is very postings to China, Japan and (IPCC) is pushing us towards 1.5 °C. striking. It would be catastrophic, though, if the the United States. In Figure 1 (p6), the black line shows the current world did not meet this particular challenge. position, already at 1 °C of warming. The IPCC’s Take a UK example of just what can be done. work showed that 2 °C is a pretty frightening place Coal has progressively been taken out of the econ- to be. One statistic that I have found has resonated omy until that historic day nearly two years ago around the world in my travels is that at 1.5 °C we when we had zero coal in electricity generation could perhaps save 20-30% of the world’s coral. At for the first time since 1882. As another example 2 °C, some 99% is gone. That difference also came of success, the offshore wind story is one where out very powerfully in the IPCC study yet the regulatory policy, business innovation and scien- world is currently on course for 3 °C – or even 4 °C. tific collaboration have led to a situation where Modelling shows how comprehensive the the UK is the biggest offshore energy producer in impacts are across the world in very different but the world. The unit cost is less than new gas or profoundly interconnected ways. There are dif- nuclear and hugely less than coal. ferent models but it should be remembered that As the UK Climate Change Committee has in a 4° C world, some parts of the planet will expe- noted, though, the current clean energy strategy rience over 10° C of change. only gets us around 60% of the way to meeting our Some people who are not convinced by the sci- carbon budgets in 10 years’ time. The carbon Technological ence ask: ‘What if this is a hoax and we create a budgets provide long-term certainty about what changes have to better world for nothing?’. Yet just listing the we need to do – and when – in order to reach our deliver a really savage actions needed to tackle this issue shows extraor- carbon reduction targets. It is very clear in the UK downward trajectory dinary benefits to society, for example: the pres- case, that even if energy were on a reasonable to get close to a ervation of our biodiversity, air quality, sustain- track, when it comes to transport, buildings, cool- net‑zero emissions ability and green jobs (green jobs are growing in ing, agriculture, land use and industrial process- position around the some places at 10 times the rate of other jobs). es, we have huge steps to take. I believe the tech- middle of the century. fst journal www.foundation.org.uk July 2019, Volume 22(5) 5 CLIMATE CHANGE

Figure 1. 2100 warming predictions Andy Dingley Andy

Source: Climate Action Tracker

(Above) the scale nologies we need to achieve the targets exist, but year when the Sustainable Development Goals of the challenge. not yet at scale. are reviewed and the Convention on Biodiversity (Right) the UK is So that is the picture in the UK. Yet even is due to be finalised in Beijing. a world leader in though the UK has one of the best climate action There are enormously positive developments offshore energy strategies in the world, we are struggling to meet in China and India. India pledged 160GW of production. the agreed carbon reduction targets. clean energy (double the UK capacity) in four The Industrial Strategy has a clean, green years. That figure has been revised upward to underpinning ethos and a set of grand challenges. 225GW and the programme is on track. So India Zero-emissions technologies were an area where has made remarkable headway in wind and the UK has been taking leadership over the past also in solar. China, meanwhile, is leading the year. Powering Past Coal was an alliance we world on wind and solar. Europe remains established with Canada, which was seen as the focussed and ambitious. The Small Island States political high-point of the international gathering have held numerous meetings particularly with at COP 23. We have also been working with the the Pacific Islands. Mexico and Columbia are green finance community to develop a set of rec- remaining engaged. ommendations that the Government will respond But there are always other factors that come to with a Green Finance Strategy. into play. There are substantial levels of invest- ment in coal taking place around the world, fund- The international perspective ed by China’s Belt and Road Initiative, which are Looking back to 2015 and the Paris Agreement, not compatible with these goals. there were a number of political alignments that Even with the coalition that had been built made that agreement possible. The USA and ahead of Paris, the deal only just got over the line. China came together a year before and concluded Look at the political situation now. While there a crucial deal after many bilateral meetings. India are some remarkable initiatives happening in the was supportive. There was great leadership from USA at state level and in research institutions, at the European Union and especially from the UK. federal level the story is quite different. In Brazil, There was a great deal of influence exerted by the support is failing and there is a hardening of the small island states or large ocean states. Africa Russian position. was behind the process. Overall, none of China, India, Indonesia or We had a grouping in 2015 that could get the South Africa has taken the potential leadership Paris Agreement done – they agreed to decarbo- role of a major emerging market. Across Africa in nise the world by the middle of the century or general, there is currently a lack of focus on this thereabouts. At the last COP, the rules of the road issue, despite the enormous opportunities from to implement the Paris Agreement were finalised. integration across the continent, together with However, five years on from Paris, at COP 26, the attendant benefits of resilience and economic countries have to come to the table, report on development. Japan is very under-ambitious so what they have done and commit to go further. So far and Korea is preoccupied with difficult issues 2020 will be a really big year. It will also be the around nuclear.

6 July 2019, Volume 22(5) fst journal www.foundation.org.uk CLIMATE CHANGE

At present, then, we do not have the coalitions and Repsol are focussing on these technologies, we need. The coming months will be critical in others – particularly Russian, Chinese, Italian, Bra- seeking to build these alignments. On a positive zilian and Indian companies – are still putting their note, what has changed recently is the pricing. money into traditional fossil investments, with To deliver on the Paris Agreement will cost a implications for the next 40 or 50 years. great deal of money. Yet today, we have crossed a Delivering on the Paris Agreement is possible, threshold. The economics are changing in a fun- but it is an extraordinary challenge over a very short damental way. Clean energy is virtually always as time and it will require system-wide change. Step- profitable as conventional carbon-based methods ping back and recognising exactly what is involved of generation. That message still has to be commu- will be vital. And this is everyone’s business. The nicated across society, though, and the clean and issue has shifted decisively from being an environ- green route will involve disruption and change in mental problem to a mainstream economic and an extraordinarily narrow period of time. political challenge for our era. It will not be solved As an example of the need for rapid change, con- by simply talking about climate change but will sider oil and gas sector investments in low-carbon involve discussions about health, air quality, quali- as a proportion of total capital over an eight-year ty of life, liveable cities, biodiversity protection, period. While some businesses such as BP, Shell species protection and clean water. ☐ Beyond the current climate process Qi Ye

A year ago, there was a sense of optimism. SUMMARY Global carbon emissions had levelled off since 2014. In China, there had been a very rapid • It is unlikely that the Paris Agreement goals can growth in emissions since the start of the century. be delivered In 2014, though, President Xi and President • Emissions are on the rise again Obama got together and announced that China • National governments have made promises they would reach peak emissions at around 2030. have been unable to deliver Yet, the past five years have been the warmest Professor Qi Ye, a leading The UNFCCC process has not delivered • since records began. Atmospheric CO2 is at a expert on China’s • Climate governance must be rethought if it is to record high and still increasing at an alarming environmental policy, is deliver the required results. rate – roughly 3ppm per year. Global greenhouse Director of the Institute for Public Policy in the gas emissions in 2018 grew 2.7% – that is on top of Hong Kong University of 1.6% in 2017. In fact, emissions in 2018 were at an Science and Technology. believe that it is quite unlikely that the goal of all-time high. That is the challenge we face. He was formerly a senior the Paris Agreement, specifically on keeping An emissions gap report of 2018 indicates that fellow and director of the Brookings-Tsinghua Center global temperature rises below 2˚C, can be emissions will not peak by 2030 – remember that for Public Policy (BTC) in Idelivered. First, the Nationally Determined Con- the condition to achieve 2˚C is to peak by 2020! Beijing. He also serves as tributions (NDCs) which each country submitted Counting all unconditional NDCs under the the Cheung Kong Professor were not sufficiently focussed on the overall tar- Paris Agreement, the gap by 2030 is 15 billion of Environmental Policy and Management at Tsinghua get. Implementation so far has been totally inad- tonnes, while adding in all the conditional NDCs University’s School of Public equate and the conditions to achieve it have not still leaves 13 billion tonnes. So it is a very big gap Policy and Management. been present. and achieving 1.5˚C would mean bridging an Prior to joining the BTC, he There is now a consensus that in order to limit even bigger gap. was director for the Climate Policy Initiative in Beijing global warming to below 2˚C, global emissions The NDCs are inadequate because those that and director of the Climate need to peak by 2020 (which is almost upon us), were pledged and confirmed under the Paris Policy Institute at Tsinghua they need to decline by about 25% by 2030 (which Agreement only take us to about 3˚C of warming. University. is less than 12 years away) and we have to reach So the Paris Agreement said we want to be at 2˚C net zero emissions around 2070. This is a daunt- but current commitments only achieve 3˚C: there ing challenge. is a very big gap. fst journal www.foundation.org.uk July 2019, Volume 22(5) 7 CLIMATE CHANGE

China Global fossil fuel emissions since the UNFCCC China has done a very good job in staying on 40 Gt track to meet the commitment under the Paris CO₂ 2010–17 Agreement. Under the earlier Copenhagen +1.0%/yr Projection 2018 37.1 Gt CO₂ Accord, it promised to cut energy intensity by ▲2.7% (1.8%–3.7%) 40-45%. By 2018, China had achieved 46%. 35 Yet in other areas progress has not been so good. 2000–10 Paris Agreement The carbon market is one. It was highly anticipated +3.1%/yr and expected to have major impact. Yet a year after 30 the deadline for the start, the national carbon mar- Copenhagen Accord ket is still not quite there. There are seven pilot 1990–2000 projects but unfortunately the price of carbon is too +1.1%/yr low at around €10. The scheme is not working well 25 enough to bring down emissions. China’s success in bringing down energy Kyoto Protocol intensity has much to do with policies to tackle 20 the domestic air pollution problem. As a matter 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 18 (projected) of fact, just by addressing air pollution, China could deliver its Paris Agreement commitment. Source: Global Carbon Project / Data: CDIAC/GCP/BP/USGS However, the economic slowdown of recent years, and consequent economic pressure, has 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 An emissions gap Around the world weakened climate action. For instance, the target report of 2018 China’s emissions were projected to grow in 2018 for reducing PM 2.5 concentrations is 3% in indicates that by 4.7%. That is a significant jump after a few 2020. The previous year’s target was 15%. Coal emissions will not years of levelling off. consumption has also rebounded for three con- peak by 2030 – while The rate in the USA had been decreasing over secutive years. the condition to the past decade, but last year increased to 2.5%. International politics, especially USA/China achieve 2 °C is to The EU in general has been decreasing at a very relations, are damaging the climate community in peak by 2020. high rate, but last year fell back. India has seen a China and internationally. In 2014, the joint pres- jump of 6.3%. The emissions gap is not closing: it idential announcement played a very positive role is actually larger than previously estimated so in setting a foundation for the Paris Agreement. there is an even bigger challenge in front of us. Now the two countries are fighting against each G20 countries collectively represent 78% of the other on this issue. world’s emissions and, collectively, they are not yet The incentives for solar, wind and other clean on a track to meet their commitments under the energy technologies in China are being removed Agreement. A few are on track but the majority and the National Development and Reform Com- are not. Note that ‘on track’ does not necessarily mission (NDRC) is planning a subsidy-free clean mean these countries are doing a great job – it may energy sector by 2020. mean they did not set ambitious NDCs! For most Since 2009, China has played a leading role in countries there is a huge gap between the policy clean energy development globally: around 30% needed and the policy enacted. of total investment came from China, but this has The political reality in different countries is started to decline over the past year. not helping either. In the USA the withdrawal from the Paris Agreement itself is a problem as Resistance the administration is now removing as many as Some of the proposed ‘good ideas’ to achieve the 78 environmental protection rules; so the Envi- Paris goals now face political resistance. The ronment Protection Agency (EPA) will have a ‘gilets jaunes’ movement in Paris has spilled over very hard time achieving their original goals. The into other European countries. The people in government is now loosening emissions stan- Paris are in essence protesting against the Paris dards for coal. Climate change issues are becom- Agreement itself. ing very polarised in the USA. One of the ideas behind the Paris Agreement Japan also has problems delivering on its goals. was for countries to learn from each other, but in fact national governments are making promises Technological innovation and deployment have that they unable to honour. Governments feel they must be seen to lead on climate change. played the biggest role in bringing down emissions They make promises to the voters but then it is and in reducing energy and carbon intensities. really hard to keep them because of the high cost

8 July 2019, Volume 22(5) fst journal www.foundation.org.uk CLIMATE CHANGE

Decarbonisation is actually happening in most countries at an amazing Shutterstck/geniusksky rate. Technology and investment are behind this.

– and also because of pressure from other We need to rethink climate governance if it is well-organised groups. to be more effective in the future. So far, govern- There is no system for international gover- ments have had to deliver this process, but there are nance to erase these basic political facts. How to other important players such as the business world. address this problem? ‘Seeking truth from facts’ There are also the NGOs, the people who are pas- is a well-known Chinese saying. The fact is that sionate about this subject. these pledges are voluntary and not legally-bind- The UN is taking care of too many details of ing. Implementation faces many challenges and this process and it is not very good at this. Nearly this UN-led, top-down process is not really work- 200 parties dealing with technicalities is not a ing as well as we would like to believe. good idea. This top-down process really needs to Certain aspects have been working well since be redesigned. The UN and governments should the conclusion of the UN Framework Convention play a much lesser role. on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Many domestic The models that we use need to be revisited. policies and actions are really working well. They play a very important role, but make a lot of There are many examples in China and in the UK. assumptions about capability, politics, the politi- Technological innovation and deployment cal economy. Those assumptions may – or may have probably played the biggest role in bringing not – be very realistic. down emissions and in reducing energy and car- We need to reinforce technological change bon intensities. Consensus on climate change and transfer right now, because the current isola- science, decoupling of economies from fossil tionism is not delivering. We need to reshape our fuels and the engagement of the younger genera- cultures and economies to significantly reduce tion have all played important roles. our commercial consumerism and in reality we Decarbonisation is actually happening in most need to rebuild our civilisation. countries at an amazing rate. In fact, it has acceler- We face a much bigger challenge than just fix- ated. Technology and investment are behind this. ing technical problems. In China, this concept is Yet other aspects do not work so well. For being promoted under the title of ‘Eco-Civilisa- example, targets are set but not achieved. tion’ or ‘Ecological Civilisation’. We must all Finance for international development under work together to assure our common future. the UNFCCC is not available, to put it simply. Let’s make it happen. ☐ Technology transfer has not taken place as envisaged under the UNFCCC process. The Technological innovation and deployment have carbon market has not been very successful and has not met expectations, be it in the EU, China played the biggest role in bringing down emissions or California. and in reducing energy and carbon intensities. fst journal www.foundation.org.uk July 2019, Volume 22(5) 9 CLIMATE CHANGE Moving the process forward Bryony Worthington

he Environmental Defense Fund is a US-based charity which has been in exis- SUMMARY tence since the 1960s. Three years ago, it establishedT a permanent office in Europe and • The US decision to pull out of the Paris appointed me as Executive Director. Agreement has, paradoxically, stimulated other One important question is whether the Paris countries to commit to the process Agreement that was concluded in 2015 can make • The agreement presents the challenge clearly as one of controlling sources and managing sinks Baroness Bryony it through the current turbulent political times. Worthington is the Executive The phrase ‘the age of bewilderment’ has been • Current commitments by signatories will not Director of the Environmental applied to today’s politics. Nobody knows what is achieve a 1.5˚C limit on global warming Defense Fund Europe. going on and it is not just in Westminster. • The global shipping and aviation sectors offer Appointed a life peer in positive examples of how the process might be 2011, she is a leading President Trump cast doubt on the Agreement’s expert on climate change survival by announcing he would pull out – but taken forward policy and carbon trading. note the timing. He made the statement one day • The rapid falls in technology costs offer She served as Shadow after the deadline for pulling out before the next US opportunities for individuals and organisations Minister for Energy and to take action. Climate Change in the House election. That, I think, is down to some clever of Lords, leading on two planning by smart people in the White House. Energy Bills for the Shadow But as a symbol it is certainly damaging and team. In 2006, she helped confers legitimacy on a cadre of people with I believe that, by and large, the consensus launch a Friends of the Earth campaign for a new legal extreme views. A claim by the president of the around Paris will continue and it will progress, climate framework, which USA that climate change is a hoax gives licence to despite the current turbulence. led to her selection as a lead people who would not otherwise have spoken out. author on the UK’s Climate Yet, by the very act of pulling out, he has con- Will Paris deliver? Change Act. firmed in many people’s minds that the Agree- Will the Paris Agreement deliver on its goals? ment is something worth having. This has galvan- Well, it faces many challenges. ised other countries to ratify in record time, even It does however present the problem as a fairly states like Nicaragua who said at the start they clear equation to solve: anthropogenic sources of were not interested in participating. greenhouse gases must be balanced by anthropo- genic sinks to reach zero sometime before 2100. Taking this seriously That is a first acknowledgement that this is about The fact that this is a UN initiative conveys the mes- controlling man-made sources and enhancing sage that we are finally, as a world, trying to take this man-made sinks. It subtly changes the way the seriously. And that will have an effect on business UN views the matter, because for too long it has decisions – it creates a sense that to be on the right been seen rather ideologically as ‘just about side of history you should be moving into a more renewables and efficiency’. Now that is a fantastic positive, sustainable business and life model. goal but utterly impractical and insufficient in the I saw this first-hand when I was working at an timescales we are talking about. As many technol- energy company and the Climate Change Act had ogies as possible must be directed at this problem just been passed. They were considering a big capi- if there is to be any chance of negotiating those tal investment but it was marginal. The costs of amazingly steep transition curves. Ruling out any doing it or not doing it were not clear. However, in a approaches at this stage is absolutely crazy. presentation to the board, I saw the Climate Change The UN must embrace a plurality of solutions Act cited as a reason to go for the cleaner option. and the Paris equation is the first written indication When you have a narrative that is compelling and a that they are accepting the scale of the challenge – legal framework that is widely understood, it can and that it is an issue about both sources and sinks. have a ‘nudge’ effect, which is important. In terms of ambition, the bottom-up approach was always going to be tricky. Let a country decide Let a country decide what it is going to do what it is going to do and it will come forward with business-as-usual, minus a little bit. The EU is a and it will come forward with business-as-usual, classic case. A 40% reduction by 2030 sounds minus a little bit. good but it is already on target to achieve well over

10 July 2019, Volume 22(5) fst journal www.foundation.org.uk CLIMATE CHANGE

30% by the end of this decade. That leaves another As someone remarked: “The problem with Paris decade to deliver just 1% per year. That is nowhere near the ambition needed from Europe as the is it is the wrong people talking about the wrong leading industrialised bloc in this challenge. issues in the wrong place.” So everyone has opted for a very safe offer and as a result, the world is heading towards over 3˚C of warming, not 1.5˚C. I suspect the negotiators remove sulphur from fuels and that is now kicking knew this and so they built in some important fea- in. In 2018, a climate change reduction target of a tures. There is the continuing dialogue to get 50% cut by mid-century was agreed. countries to agree a process for increasing that I think this is interesting because there are a ambition as well as the five-yearly review which large number of engineers and technical finance will take effect in 2020 (that is just around the cor- people taking practical decisions about investing ner!). There are details hidden within the legalese in vessels that have to have zero-emissions by that would allow countries to collaborate and cre- 2030. Now, 2019 is a crucial year – policies are ate shared ambition – indeed, trading of ambition coming forward to be discussed by member states is within the possibilities. Clubs of countries could and will be signed into law sometime early next come together to take the process further with decade. I would hope, because shipping has to be mutually-beneficial investment programmes. very practical, that governments will find the pol- That is the good news. However, as someone icies and the will to make that happen. remarked: “The problem with Paris is it is the This is an example of multilateralism in a world wrong people talking about the wrong issues in the where multilateralism seems to be generally out of wrong place.” There is certainly an element of that: favour at the moment. bring together the world’s Environment Ministers and there is likely to be a certain type of dialogue Aviation and a certain type of outcome. Aviation, despite its shaky start, has created a Without the participation of the world’s Trea- common metric and a common way of thinking sury Ministers, Finance Ministers, Energy Minis- about emissions that applies to nearly everyone in ters and Transport Ministers, progress will not be the sector. It has at the moment a more voluntary very fast. The likelihood is that governments will approach and is focussed on offsetting and car- sign up to something internationally, go home and bon markets rather than on technological invest- hit a domestic brick wall because the economics ment. However, it provides another example of a are not favourable. global sector coming forward and devising rules that will drive the process forward. The challenge Other global sectors is to stimulate similar discussions in other global There are two vital global sectors not covered by sectors, like steel for example. the Paris agreement: aviation and shipping. Now between them, they account for 4-5% of global New tools emissions which is significant – each sector is In the Environmental Defense Fund, we talk responsible for annual emissions comparable about ‘the fourth wave of environmentalism’. This with Germany’s. Interestingly, their rules of gov- refers to the way citizens, people, NGOs, are able ernance were created in the 1950s when pooling to do extraordinary things due to the reducing of sovereignty was driven by commerce: common costs of technology. As a modestly-sized NGO, rules were needed to enable money to flow and we have still found the funds to launch our own business to be done. satellite and we will be monitoring methane emis- So those two old parts of the UN have the sions at a global level. As a consequence, we are capacity to write global rules that are applied to finding the oil and gas industry are much more everyone. The concept of common but differen- receptive to our calls because they know that once tiated responsibilities does not really apply if a that satellite goes live they will not be able to hide. level playing field is required. A ship can be Technology costs matter, not just in terms of flagged in one place but trade between different CO2 abatement, but also because they enable us ports across the globe. It is a much more realistic access to the data and the knowledge we need in view of today’s world: one that is interconnected order to solve this problem. ☐ and international. These sectors have been criticised for not tak- The oil and gas industry are much more receptive ing environmental issues seriously. Recently, though, they have started to take action. The ship- to our calls because they know that once that ping industry signed an agreement 10 years ago to satellite goes live they will not be able to hide. fst journal www.foundation.org.uk July 2019, Volume 22(5) 11 CLIMATE CHANGE Taking practical steps he Environment Agency is the UK’s envi- assets under management. We then built a part- ronmental regulator, but also has respon- nership with LSE Grantham Institute which sibility for flood and coastal risk manage- involved FTSE Russell as well as other bodies. Tment. It is at the forefront of tackling the physical As we headed into the 2018 COP, the partner- risks of climate change. ship had $9 trillion of assets under management The World Economic Forum’s January report supporting this initiative. This also supports a confirmed that three out of the top five risks to further initiative called ‘Climate Action 100+’ in Emma Howard Boyd, Chair humanity link to climate risk. However, we which investors with a value of $31 trillion of of the Environment Agency, should not just be looking through a ‘risk lens’ but assets under management are engaging with joined the panel after the formal presentations. also at the opportunity of building resilience as we high-carbon industries. We are creating tools to look to create a prosperous future. The Industrial understand the transition of our portfolios for a Strategy and the Clean Growth Programme must low carbon economy. reflect a clean and resilient investment strategy. What is the point of investing in energy efficiency Collaborative relationships measures that are then washed away in a flood or We need to work within the existing frameworks melted in a heatwave? because they are the best we have at the moment. Last October, I was invited to be the UK’s repre- At the same time, we all need to explore collabo- sentative on the newly-established Global Com- rative relationships that lead to action, and the mission on Adaptation. The way different groups, important word is ‘action’ because this is a race we including business leaders and investors, are col- have to win. Different countries or business lead- laborating on this agenda gives me huge optimism. ers may push the agenda forward at different As Chair of the Investment Committee of the times, but we all have to work together. Environment Agency Pension Fund, I helped set While it is understandable to be daunted by up an initiative with the Church of England’s some of the statistics and deadlines in the IPCC National Investment Bodies two years ago. report, I personally am optimistic about the part- Between us we have something like £15 billion of nerships that we can build on climate change. ☐ The third goal of the Agreement here are actually three goals in the Paris good news story in terms of avoiding catastrophe Agreement. Goal number one on emis- as well as creating green jobs and producing sions attracts the most attention. Goal 2 is health benefits. As part of this, we need to focus Tabout resilience and adaptation. Goal 3 – which on ensuring that ‘no-one is left behind’. Climate is truly transformational – aims to make financial action has to be set in the broader context of sus- flows consistent with the first two. tainable development. We must align the financial system (worth In helping to achieve all three goals – emis- Professor Nick Robins, $386 trillion) with the Paris Agreement. The sions, resilience and finance – the financial sector Professor in Practice for good news is that $32 trillion of investor assets are has an important part to play. Investors can give Sustainable Finance at already committed to this path. Central banks confidence to policy-makers and they can help Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the like the Bank of England and the People’s Bank of improve corporate governance (Shell has recently Environment, London School China are leading initiatives in this area. There is tightened its climate targets in response to share- of Economics and Politics the Green Bond market which doubled in value holder engagement). They can also reallocate also joined the panel. between 2016 and 2017. their capital towards assets that will deliver the A social contract is needed in order to achieve Paris goals. Remember, this money is not located this transition. The message from COP24 at in some distant financial system, it is ours – per- Katowice in the coal region of Poland was: sonal savings, ISAs, pension funds. ‘We need a just transition.’ The gilets jaunes in Economic pressure and market turbulence France are also an example of people reacting to clearly impact on progress. Indeed, recent market energy-related change. turbulence has already dented green finance. We We need to demonstrate that this is a very need to remember that the global financial crisis

12 July 2019, Volume 22(5) fst journal www.foundation.org.uk CLIMATE CHANGE of 2008 almost killed the preferred climate change ready to ‘do whatever it takes’ to keep finance It is vital that tool of choice – carbon markets. It has taken flowing towards the transition. economic pressures, almost 10 years for this market to re-establish Finally, we need to find ways to really connect market turbulence itself. It is vital that economic pressures, market with citizen savers so that every pension fund and related issues turbulence and related issues like protectionism member, every ISA owner in this country, like protectionism do do not throw climate measures off course. knows whether their fund is aligned to the Paris not throw climate Instead, policymakers and investors need to be Agreement. ☐ measures off course. The debate The discussion that followed the formal presentations covered a wide range of issues, including: progress in the UK; shipping; the forthcoming G20 meeting; and behavioural change.

rogress is frustratingly slow for reasons primary schools there is awareness of carbon linked with politics, including the short miles in lunch boxes. Although the planting of time horizons of many politicians, and the trees is accepted as a way to sequester carbon diox- Pfact that large incumbent companies have a centu- ide, there were differing views about which species ry of profiting from fossil fuels. £200 billion a year had the most beneficial impact overall. needs to be spent on climate-related investment to Carbon capture and storage (CCS) could con- achieve the necessary change. tribute to decarbonisation. Spending on transport The current UK statutory targets will not be infrastructure is substantial, so this needs to be met without more detailed policies on domestic clean and resilient. Most insurance policies do not heating, housing, land-use and transport. cover climate impacts and large sections of Cali- Although there are shortcomings, the UK has a fornia are already uninsurable against fire risk. stronger legislative base to promote effective Changes in individual behaviour could be sig- action on climate change than most countries. If nificant. Media programmes by celebrities like Sir the UK leaves the EU, would it be able to act effec- David Attenborough stimulate a great deal of tively on climate change when so much of its effort interest among the public. The Royal Academy of has been bound up in European initiatives? Engineering had developed a sustainability rating system for infrastructure. UK car production is Action on shipping making important advances, with The Transport The International Maritime Organisation has Systems Catapult aiming for 50% of car production started to take action on shipping. In some coun- to be all-electric by 2030. ☐ tries nuclear power could play a major role in reducing emissions. In Japan, for example, a 20% reduction in emissions should be possible FURTHER INFORMATION from nuclear power, once its nuclear reactors have been restarted. The Paris Agreement on climate change https://unfoundation.org/blog/ The UK does not generate electricity from coal, post/paris-climate-agreement-101-no-jargon-just-facts but 40% of Germany’s electricity still comes from that source. In the UK, investment in renewables IPCC Special Report on the impacts from a 1.5 degree centigrade increase has become more economic. in temperature above pre-industrial levels www.ipcc.ch/sr15 The decision of the Japanese Prime Minister to put climate change at the centre of the country’s COP24 Conference in Katowice, Poland www.cop24.katowice.eu G20 Presidency in June was welcomed. The G20 accounts for 80% of the world’s GDP. It is easier to World Economic Forum https://toplink.weforum.org/knowledge/insight/ invest in climate change in periods of economic a1Gb0000000LHVfEAO/explore/summary growth, and so establishing a positive cycle for economic growth and environmental protection The Climate Change Committee independent assessment of the UK clean will be challenging at the G20. growth strategy www.theccc.org.uk/publication/independent-assessment- The energy of young people like 15 year-old uks-clean-growth-strategy-ambition-action Greta Thunberg of Sweden has made a big impact. Some young people are making choices about Local authority carbon leadership initiative www.uk100.org foods based on their carbon footprint, and even in fst journal www.foundation.org.uk July 2019, Volume 22(5) 13 PANDEMICS How well prepared is the UK for a flu pandemic on the scale of the 1918-19 event which killed many millions of people worldwide? The question was discussed at a meeting held at the Royal Society on 5 December 2018. Preparing for a flu pandemic

Christopher Whitty

t is now 100 years since the great 1918-19 flu pandemic in which between 50 and 100 mil- SUMMARY lion people died. Government has to plan for, Iand then respond to, large numbers of infectious • The onset of influenza pandemics can happen at epidemics of varying severity; this was the worst great speed in modern times, although not the worst possible. • Anyone can be infected with flu but the very Epidemics occur every year. In 2018, there young and the elderly are usually most impacted Professor Chris Whitty CB were 6-12 epidemics of significant proportions, • The first wave of a pandemic is not necessarily FMedSci is Chief Scientific ranging from the outbreak of cholera in Yemen the worst Adviser at the Department through to a small outbreak of monkey pox in • Vaccines typically take at least four months to of Health and Social Care West Africa. A flu pandemic is on a scale quite develop from the time of identification of the virus (DHSC). He has overall responsibility for the unlike almost all of the others; the only exception • The biggest problem, other than infection, is fear Department’s research and in the past 100 years being HIV. and misinformation. development, including In planning for an infectious epidemic there the National Institute for are a number of factors to consider. Speed of Health Research (NIHR) and life science strategy. He is spread is very important and influences the type worst case scenario’ and the main risk, for a vari- currently Professor of Public of response. Clearly mortality, or virulence, is ety of reasons, is influenza A. That is not to say and International Health also key. Geographical limits may come into play: that influenzas B, C and D are not important, but at the London School of a vector-borne disease transmitted by mosquitoes in terms of a pandemic, A is the major risk. Hygiene & Tropical Medicine and an NHS Consultant will only occur where those insects live. This fac- The onset of influenza pandemics can happen Physician in acute medicine tor is not relevant in flu which can go anywhere with phenomenal speed because the spread rate is and infectious diseases that humans live. so rapid. Figure 1 shows the mortality rate, by at University College Available public health counter-measures to month, in the USA, comparing 1918 with the pre- London Hospitals. He is also Gresham Professor of prevent, and medical counter-measures to cure, vious year. It devastated society over the period of Physic. He will become Chief infection are clearly crucial. And then there are just a few weeks. Medical Officer for England other aspects like workforce protection and soci- in October 2019. etal impact. The risk in today’s world Pandemic influenza is at the top of the UK It is often reported in the media that flu pandem- National Risk Register as the biggest predictable ics are even more of a risk today because of our major risk. There are several reasons for this: it is interconnectedness. In terms of transport that an airborne disease which means that many of the may be true but it does not hold in other respects. counter-measures that can be used in other envi- A much more integrated transport network ronments are not effective: with vector-borne means that wherever it comes from, we will get it, diseases mosquito control is an option; for touch possibly within 24 hours of first reports. Yet, bet- diseases like Ebola people can be isolated; and in ter nutrition, better housing, better heating, as the case of a water-borne disease action can be well as more copious water for people to wash taken to make water safe. But with an airborne their hands and the availability of antibiotics disease, the range of public health counter-mea- reduces the likely severity compared to 1918-19. sures is substantially reduced. A population pyramid of the UK from 1918 The spread of a flu pandemic is likely to be very looks similar to that of the Central African Pandemic influenza rapid. A high proportion of the population will be Republic today. In fact, the mortality rate in a is at the top of the affected and potentially all at the same time. That good year, prior to the war, was worse than most UK National Risk is very important for planning purposes. African countries today. The 1918 pandemic hit Register as the The last pandemic in the UK in 2009-10 was of a society which was much poorer, much younger biggest predictable low mortality and virulence, but they can be and much less well-prepared in some ways than if major risk. much worse. The UK has to plan for a ‘reasonable it were to be hit today. Only the higher proportion

14 July 2019, Volume 22(5) fst journal www.foundation.org.uk PANDEMICS of older people works to our disadvantage. Figure 1. Death rate from H1N1 flu 1918 All flu pandemics can move quickly and the 2009-10 flu pandemic was no exception. It spread 60

both within countries and around the world at phe- n) nomenal speed. Trying to slow it down by mea- 50 sures like airport screening is completely pointless. In the UK, this relatively limited pandemic resulted in large numbers of people going to their GPs. In 40 reality, many had upper respiratory tract infec- tions, many others will not have had flu, while still 30 others would be what is derogatorily and rather unfairly termed ‘worried well’. In that pandemic, 20 officially there were 457 deaths. There was a vac- populati o Death rate per (1,000 cine but not until well after the peak: the likely 10 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec onset of normal, seasonal flu can be predicted but pandemics occur without warning – they may hap- 1911–1917 1918 pen completely out of season – so the usual type of planning for flu simply will not suffice. infection. With a seasonal flu, there is usually a Figure 1. Death rate Transmission and mortality very low mortality in younger people: in the flu from H1N1 flu per Many people have the mistaken belief that the pandemic of 1918, though, there was a significant thousand head of more virulent the disease, the less transmissible it spike in mortality in people of young working age, population, USA, is. Unfortunately, this is not true. For flu, there also young parents (Figure 2). This is different 1918. seems to be little evidence of any correlation from a normal seasonal pattern and would lead to between virulence and transmissibility in the his- a very different societal impact. torical record. It is often assumed that the first wave of a flu Within the last 100 years, the 2009 H1N1 out- pandemic will be the worst, but that is not neces- break had a 0.3% mortality. The number of cases sarily true. In the 1918 pandemic, the second was somewhere between 10 and 200 million wave was much more severe. While that would worldwide. The flu pandemic of 1918 had a 3% give more time to develop a vaccine, it is not mortality – i.e. 10 times that amount – transmitted always the case: the first wave will still in some at roughly the same rate. Many of the animal flus, cases be the worst and – on a reasonable worst before they jump to humans, can have much high- case scenario – that has to be the assumption. er mortality rates. So, in the most recent, H7N9 avian flu had a mortality of 30%, i.e. ten times Vaccination higher than the flu pandemic of 1918. While it is Ever since the time of Edward Jenner, policy mak- likely that the mortality virulence would go down ers have assumed that vaccines are the solution to to some degree in the case of a transfer to humans, all problems. In fact, for very many infections a in my view 3% mortality should not be seen as the vaccine is not the right answer. The search for an worst that would be possible. HIV vaccine has been going on for a very long time, The societal impact of any infection – and this with no obvious success. In most years, though, is certainly true for flu – will depend on who is there is a reasonably effective vaccine for flu. affected and may become a huge problem for Between the point that the virus is first charac- particular groups in society. So for example, HIV terised and the point when the vaccine is avail- was initially, in western countries, a particular able, the minimum planning time should be four problem for gay men and intravenous drug users. months. Given the speed of movement of flu, the The search for a It was a heterosexual epidemic in Southern Afri- majority of the damage may have occurred before pandemic vaccine ca. There are many diseases – Ebola, Lassa and the first vaccine actually hits the clinics and which will protect Marburg being good examples – where a very schools. people through the high proportion of the people who die will be There is much discussion of the possibility of whole year has been healthcare workers because they come into con- a pandemic vaccine which will protect people ongoing for a very tact early, at a point where an epidemic has not through the whole year. The search has been long time. The been recognised. ongoing for a very long time: a lot of money challenge is not Anyone can be infected with flu. And while and a great deal of science has gone into this scientifically anyone in a pandemic can be killed, as with all search, so far without success. The challenge is impossible but has infections, children and the elderly will bear the not scientifically impossible but has proved proved extraordinarily brunt of mortality. That is true for virtually every extraordinarily difficult. difficult. fst journal www.foundation.org.uk Ju ly 2019, Volume 22(5) 15 PANDEMICS

Figure 2. Influenza and mortality in the USA by age, 1918

3000 James Gathany/CDC 2500 1911–1917 1918 2000

1500

Specific death rate 1000

500

0

<1 1-4 ≥85 5-14 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75-84 Age (years)

(Above) Figure One recent advance is a move from the the case of a pandemic with supplies being run 2. Influenza and old-fashioned egg-based system (the current down with great speed. mortality in the method) to a cell-based production system. Supportive treatment for people with severe flu USA by age, 1918.<1 1-4 5-14While15-24 this25-34 does35-44 not45-54 produce55-64 better65-7475-84 vaccines,≥85 they is substantially better than in 1918. However, there Deaths per 100,000 can be made more quickly. are very few Intensive Care Unit beds and they people. (Above right) would be overwhelmed so quickly in a pandemic Influenza research Anti-viral approaches that they would, for practical purposes, be useless. at the Centers for There is a surprising amount of controversy about Above all, basic nursing care remains vital – Disease Control the role of anti-viral drugs. There are several and you do not need to be a nurse to do it. That and Prevention in drugs which are used against flu, the most well- remains constant and is no different from 1918. Atlanta, US known being Oseltamivir and Zanamivir. If taken early they probably reduce severity, at least Planning in a significant number of people, and they may Our job is to think about the science elements of reduce the duration of symptoms by a day or two. any practical problem. A number of initiatives The benefits are modest and the treatments only can be taken to respond to the threat of a pandem- reduce symptoms – they do not stop the disease. ic better. These include mathematical modelling We cannot know how efficacious these drugs to give reasonable forecasts of how fast the flu will will be during a pandemic, because by definition move and how many people are likely to die. we do not yet know this virus. And flu has proved A very good virus identification network is extremely capable at evolving resistance to drugs: already in operation, indicating which viruses a single point mutation may make a drug essen- are circulating. However, the speed of onset, tially useless. There could be a switch from a from the first cases to the peak, will be incredibly highly-sensitive strain to a highly-resistant one in quick, so any advantage that confers should not a very short space of time. be exaggerated. Banking on a drug-led response is therefore Pre-planning is essential. This includes decid- not a safe planning assumption, although they are ing which parts of the health system would be potentially very useful in certain circumstances ‘switched off’, and in what sequence, in order to and we need to hold stockpiles. keep the overall system running, faced with a huge increase in demand. Secondary causes of mortality Vaccine production can be optimised but the Perhaps more important – but much less known current lead-time is still four months. Antivirals – is that probably the majority of deaths in the and antibiotics can be stockpiled. 1918 flu pandemic were due to secondary bacte- The biggest problem, other than the infection, rial pneumonia. Many antibiotics can potentially is fear and misinformation which causes people work in this situation: of course, antibiotics were to behave in a way which appears rational to them not available in 1918. Although they will be avail- but is, in reality, ineffective or even from a societal able, there would be global demand for them in point of view damaging. ☐

16 Ju l y 2019, Volume 22(5) fst journal www.foundation.org.uk PANDEMICS Examining the impacts on society Andrew Coburn

ism. At 17% or more, the business effectively has SUMMARY to close down. So a pandemic would cause mas- sive economic disruption around the world. • Pandemics affect the whole global economy, not Let us take one hypothetical example which just healthcare provision shows the issues around the availability of vaccines. • National strategies tend to fall into two In this case, the pandemic takes around nine categories: those with pharmaceutical-led months to circumnavigate the globe. For a global responses and those based on non- business trying to manage absenteeism in its Chi- pharmaceutical strategies Dr Andrew Coburn is Chief nese operation, having just had to deal with a sim- Scientist at the Cambridge • A number of factors are increasing the risk of a ilar situation in the US market, this becomes Centre for Risk Studies, global pandemic Judge Business School, extremely disruptive. Businesses are investing University of Cambridge. • There are also countervailing initiatives to large sums of money and time into risk manage- His recent work has reduce risk ment and exploring how they could partner with included a focus on cyber • The current reliance on vaccine development government to help with these problems. risk, financial crises, and carries its own risks. threats with the potential to disrupt the global economy, Health services such as pandemic risks Table 2 shows the likely impacts on the health ser- and geopolitical events. he arguments for better preparedness for vices. Hospitalisation demand would be about 16 Andrew was a member of the Blackett Review pandemics are as much about economics times current capacity in terms of spare beds that Panel convened in 2010 as they are about healthcare or humani- are normally available. This ‘hospital surge to address how the UK Ttarian considerations. The Centre for Risk Stud- capacity’ is critical. With intensive care, the situ- government can use risk ies examined a number of scenarios for pres- ation is almost impossible – demand is two orders analysis techniques to avoid strategic shock and he was ent-day pandemics. They are slightly less virulent of magnitude larger than spare capacity and so on. a member of the Scientific than the worst-case-scenario presented for the There are now 160 countries that have filed Pandemic Influenza Advisory National Risk Assessment, but our focus was on their ‘Pandemic Preparedness Plan’ with the Committee Modelling group their overall impact on society and economics – World Health Organisation (WHO). These fall (SPI-M). and whether that constitutes a reasonable case for into two broad classes. There is the ‘gold class’ broader intervention and preparedness. based on a pharmaceutical response and then Each year the Centre publishes a ‘Pandemic there are those of the poorer countries with lower Risk Register’ of threats to the global economy. GDP per capita who have to rely on non-pharma- We monitor where pandemic sits relative to ter- ceutical strategies. rorism and financial crises as well as other risks So, while a pandemic is a common, shared such as cyber threats. We try, essentially, to quan- problem, there is a big divide in the response. One tify how much risk there is. country may have stock-piled Tamiflu to treat its We have also been advising our research population but there are plenty more people com- ­sponsors on how we could be better prepared ing in from other infected countries who do not through the partnership between public and have the same healthcare resources. private­ sectors. The assumption is that a vaccine arrives six The Centre has published a study on a hypo- months after the pandemic starts, a second wave thetical pandemic scenario, to try and under- is prevented and everything returns to normal. stand the impact on economic activity1. Our esti- What happens, though, if the vaccine is delayed? mate (see Table 1) was between $7 trillion and $23 What happens if the infection is too virulent even trillion damage to the global economy from a for the vaccine production to meet demand or, moderate virulence outbreak of an influenza indeed, that there is some sort of problem with the virus. We looked at the levels of absenteeism that vaccine? Well, then the death toll could rise by a might be expected in businesses, somewhere third. To give some indication of the impact, the between 17-25% for two or three weeks. Now, a private healthcare systems in the USA bear about business can tolerate up to about 9% of absentee- $120 billion of loss in these kinds of outcomes. fst journal www.foundation.org.uk Ju ly 2019, Volume 22(5) 17 PANDEMICS

Table 1. Consequences of hypothetical pandemic scenario Scenario Poor response Vaccine delay Poor response and vaccine delay Global death toll projections 19 million 22 million 24 million 25 million Global loss of GDP $7 trillion $10 trillion $14 trillion $23 trillion Proportion of world annual GDP 12% 18% 25% 40% Duration of global recession 6 months 9 months 9 months 12-24 months Life insurance payouts $99 billion $113 billion $119 billion $121 billion Healthcare insurance payouts $93 billion $122 billion $128 billion $144 billion

A pandemic would cause massive Table 2. Healthcare demand can swamp capacity economic disruption USA UK around the world. Physician consultation demand PHCP consultations GP consultations

Normal consultations per week 19,623,240 4,672,200 Pandemic consultations in peak week 15,871,380 3,778,900 Pandemic demand as proportion of capacity 81% 81% Hospitalisation demand Total number of hospital beds 944,277 136,486 Normal occupancy level 68% 86% Pandemic hospital bed demand 1,800,000 312,000 Pandemic demand as multiple of spare capacity 5.9 16.3 Intensive care demand Total intensive care beds 67,357 3,770 Normal occupancy level 80% 85% Pandemic intensive care bed demand 350,000 58,000 Pandemic demand as multiple of spare capacity 25.9 102.6

Increasing and decreasing risk trends show an improving efficiency of healthcare provi- What are the trends that are increasing pandemic sion: this has the effect of reducing surge capacity. risk? Well, top of my list is ‘gain-of-function’ Pharmaceutical companies are less motivated research. People are actively trying to make virus- to carry out vaccine research – their business es more virulent in order to thoroughly under- models do not really support vaccine develop- stand their mechanisms, but I believe this is ment activities. Increased international travel under-policed. allows quicker and larger rates of infection. We have tried to quantify the effect of anti­ However, there are also developments that are microbial resistance (AMR) on a future pan- decreasing the risk of pandemics. The current demic scenario. Assuming specific failure levels technology for vaccines is pretty old-fashioned for our standard antibiotics gives significant and relies on large numbers of eggs. Switching to increases in the death toll. a cell-culture manufacturing technique speeds There are growing populations of livestock things up significantly. There is now the possibil- which, in emerging economies particularly, are ity of universal influenza vaccines. Healthcare becoming zoonotic reservoirs for future new expenditure in the global economy is also steadi- strains of disease. In addition, WHO statistics ly increasing.

18 Ju l y 2019, Volume 22(5) fst journal www.foundation.org.uk PANDEMICS U.S. Food and Drug AdministrationU.S.

In terms of emerging infectious disease, a real- influenza. It is one of the most adaptive and Old-school ly good vaccine for Ebola has just been finalised changing diseases. Preparing for a pandemic is vaccine technology: and there are other vaccines on the way for some not solely a UK problem, it is actually a global A US Food and of the worst haemorrhagic fevers: those are at the problem. It is just not possible to close the border Drug Administration top end of our spectrum of concern. – the spread will happen too fast. laboratory worker There is some great work going on in disease Surge capacity and healthcare provision are injects an influenza surveillance and emerging economies have quite key, as well as stockpiling drugs for known virus into an egg, much better networks of detection, reporting threats including influenza. Much of our strategy where it will grow and monitoring. is very dependent on vaccines, which we have before being The 1918 pandemic was certainly the worst outsourced to the private sector. However, the harvested. that we have been able to measure and understand. business model is poor in rewards, so that needs There are hints in the literature of others in history, to change radically. but medical science records do not exist for these. We need a game-plan for anything that could The deaths from secondary bacterial infections in be thrown at us while focussing on the more like- 1918 are largely treatable with antibiotics today. ly infections. ☐

What next? 1. Ruffle SJ, Bowman G, Caccioli F, Coburn AW, Kelly What might nature throw at us next? Nature has S, Leslie B, Ralph D (2014) Stress Test Scenario: São in the past created new types of pathogens that Paulo Virus Pandemic. Cambridge Risk Framework combine in different ways, so we actually need to series. Centre for Risk Studies, University of be prepared for a combination of any of the known Cambridge. Available from the publications section diseases. Haemorrhagic viruses with high infec- at www.jbs.cam.ac.uk tion rates would be a real nightmare scenario. Historically, there has been a global pandemic What might nature throw at us next? – something that crosses international boundar- ies that is new which we do not have the toolkit for Haemorrhagic viruses with high infection – every 13 years. About two-thirds of those are rates would be a real nightmare scenario. fst journal www.foundation.org.uk Ju ly 2019, Volume 22(5) 19 PANDEMICS The digital component ublic Health England (PHE) is rightly act misinformation for example linked to vaccines? acknowledged as one of the most advanced There are emerging new technologies for early public health systems in the world, partic- disease detection, enabling researchers to study the Pularly in the area of influenza surveillance. We transmission and impact of a pandemic. Today, have excellent modelling work and there have nearly everyone has a smart phone. Companies are been tremendous advances in vaccines since the being encouraged to share their data with Public 1918 pandemic. Health England and with hospitals for pandemic Professor Rachel McKendry, However, how digitally prepared for a pandem- flu preparedness. Our i-sense researchers at UCL Director, i-sense and ic are we? One of the biggest challenges during a have been exploring the use of search data and Professor of Biomedical pandemic will be communication and the need to working very closely with PHE on this. With algo- Nanotechnology at University College London counteract any misinformation online. How much rithms based on machine learning, we believe we joined the panel after the is being done to prevent rumours appearing online? can give an earlier indication of flu by up to a week. main presentations. Are we using Facebook and social media to counter- These advances are already being used in national flu surveillance by PHE, but much more could be done through more data-sharing between public health institutions and researchers. A&E services are likely to be completely over- whelmed in a pandemic. We need to look at sup- porting people at home to avoid overcrowding clin- ics and here digital technologies could play a role. Development and piloting of these methods should be carried out in times of seasonal flu: implementing them in a pandemic would be – at best – challeng-

i-sense ing. Our knowledge and our toolkit to respond to New apps can help with early disease detection these challenges must evolve as fast as the virus. ☐

FURTHER INFORMATION

UK Influenza Preparedness Strategy 2011 www.gov.uk/government/publications/responding-to-a-uk-flu-pandemic

Sâo Paulo Virus Pandemic Scenario Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies, Cambridge Risk Framework University of Cambridge, Judge Business School www.jbs.cam.ac.uk/fileadmin/user_upload/research/centres/risk/downloads/crs-sao-paolo-virus- pandemic.pdf

The National Risk Register of Civil Emergencies 2017 www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-risk-register-of-civil-emergencies-2017-edition

Annual Report of the Chief Medical Officer 2017 Health Impacts of All Pollution – what do we know? www.gov.uk/government/publications/chief-medical-officer-annual-report-2017-health-impacts-of-all- pollution-what-do-we-know

Operating framework for managing the response to pandemic flu www.england.nhs.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/framework-pandemic-flu.pdf

Influenza Pandemic Brief, April 2016 www.england.nhs.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/pandemic-influenza-brief-apr16.pdf

NHS Board paper on Influenza Pandemic preparedness www.england.nhs.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/board-paper-300317-item-10.pdf

20 Ju l y 2019, Volume 22(5) fst journal www.foundation.org.uk PANDEMICS The debate ublished alongside the Government’s Risk emphasis on primary care. There is a strong argu- The discussion Assessment are 10 simple, practical mea- ment for investing in new technologies to tackle that followed sures that would make a huge difference if seasonal flu, which can then also support the the formal Pevery household acted on them. The advice was response to a pandemic. presentations there. Social media could be more pro-active and The management of death raises wider issues covered issues sophisticated, as a way to support positive com- than just logistical and ethical challenges. The such as: fake munications to the public about the threat, to death toll in a pandemic would have a huge cul- news on social build confidence in the counter-measures that tural impact. The deaths of a large number of media; an NHS were planned and to promote precautions the young people could have a devastating impact – app; vaccine public could take themselves. although there was interesting evidence from the development; These tools could also be used to counter mis- Ebola outbreak that the population had adjusted and the role of information on the web, which poses an increas- surprisingly quickly. antibiotics. ingly significant threat. Spurious evidence and Current developments in global and national arguments against vaccines are, for example, being politics undoubtedly make this a difficult time in deployed with great sophistication. Scientists have which to pursue a multilateral agenda. But better a responsibility to engage in equally sophisticated international institutions and structures to tackle counter-arguments and in finding new ways to the issue of pandemics at a supra-national level communicate positive, evidence-based public could do much to enhance global resilience. ☐ health information and advice. The NHS website (www.nhs.uk) is widely used. Could an NHS app be developed, giving advice on pandemic risk, preparedness and countermea- sures? However, pandemics vary in impact. In a mild pandemic it would be important, for exam- ple, not to induce behaviour changes which might have an unnecessary adverse impact on the econ- omy. Internet service providers should be asked or required to take down misinformation on social media. Fake news needs to be called out and coun- tered systematically with evidence and the truth. There needs to be renewed investment in vac- cine development – and in particular the search for a universal flu vaccine. Basic science is still needed alongside developmental research. It is necessarily a long-term game. The sea changes in treatment for Hepatitis C and HIV emphasise the need to keep at the issue – and to take an optimis- tic view. Nevertheless new, more visionary approaches may be required. Viruses as well as counter-measures will con- tinue to adapt and evolve. It is crucial to watch for developments in the animal sector. Zoonotic strains are vital indicators; and both researchers and surveillance teams monitor strains circulating in the animal world and in the fowl and bird pop- ulation in particular.

Antibiotic supply Ensuring a supply of antibiotics for secondary infections will be a key success factor in preparing for and responding to a flu pandemic. The NHS needs to be supported in preparing for the longer John Keith/National Cancer Institute term impact of an epidemic, with a particular Research is continuing for a universal flu vaccine. fst journal www.foundation.org.uk Ju ly 2019, Volume 22(5) 21 PANDEMICS The National Risk Register of Civil Emergencies

longside emergency services previous 2015 edition of the NRR. • blood-borne (spread between and local authorities, the Gov- Human diseases take a variety of humans via exposure to infected ernment has an important role forms, some of which have the potential blood or blood products); toA play in identifying, assessing, prepar- to cause a civil emergency due to the • food-borne (spread by ing for and dealing with emergencies, number of people they might affect in a contaminated food/water). from flooding and severe storms to short space of time. One such risk is an industrial accidents or terrorist attacks. influenza (‘flu’) pandemic. Flu pandem- It is difficult to forecast the spread The Government produces the ics are natural events that happen when and impact of a new flu strain or disease National Risk Register of Civil Emergen- a unique flu virus evolves in such a way until it starts circulating. However, for cies1 (NRR) every two years in order to that few people (if any) are immune to it. pandemic flu, consequences may give information to the public about There are important differences include up to 50% of the UK population these risks, alongside advice and guid- between ‘ordinary’ seasonal flu of the experiencing symptoms, potentially ance on how to prepare for them. kind that happens in winter, and pan- leading to between 20,000 and 750,000 The NRR is based on information demic flu. In a pandemic, the new virus fatalities and high levels of absence from from the National Risk Assessment, will spread quickly and cause more seri- work. In addition, there is likely to be: which is a classified assessment of risks ous illness in a large proportion of the • disruption to essential services, that could happen in the UK over the particularly health and education; next five years. Both documents help the Animal diseases are partly • economic disruption, including Government and local authorities to disruption to business and tourism. inform, plan and prepare. a threat because of the These risks are written in the form of potential for some The most recent pandemic flu out- scenarios or events, such as a severe break was an H1N1 strain (swine flu) in storm or a disease outbreak. The seri- diseases to spread from 2009 which caused at least 18,500 deaths ousness of any risk depends on two animals to humans and worldwide. In 1918, another variant of things: (a) how likely it is to occur; and cause illness or fatalities. the same H1N1 strain (Spanish flu) (b) the expected impacts were it to hap- killed over 50 million people globally. pen. Government considers both of However, other flu strains exist with these factors when assessing a risk sce- population, due to the lack of immunity. pandemic potential, such as H5N1 nario. Some of the most important risks There is a high probability of a flu pan- (avian or bird flu). This strain caused are set out in Figure 1. demic occurring, but it is impossible to several hundred human deaths in South predict when, or exactly what it would East Asia in 1996. Infectious diseases be like. Over the past 25 years more than 30 The emergence of new infectious diseas- Emerging infectious diseases could new (or newly recognised) emerging es is unpredictable but evidence indi- also cause large numbers of people to fall infectious diseases have been identified cates it may become more frequent. This ill. These are diseases which have recent- around the world, such as Ebola, Zika may be linked to a number of factors ly been recognised or where cases have and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome. such as: climate change; the increase in increased over the last 20 years in a spe- The latter emerged recently in 2012 and world travel; greater movement and dis- cific place or among a specific popula- poses a global health threat. placement of people resulting from war; tion (e.g. the Zika virus). The likelihood the global transport of food and inten- of an emerging infectious disease Animal diseases sive food production methods; humans spreading within the UK is assessed to be Animal diseases threaten the UK for two encroaching on the habitat of wild ani- lower than that of a flu pandemic. main reasons: firstly, because of the mals; and better detection systems that Ways of catching these diseases can potential for some diseases to spread spot new diseases. No country is include: from animals to humans and cause ill- immune to an infectious disease from • respiratory (airborne from one ness or fatalities; and secondly, because another part of the world. In light of evi- infected person to another); they affect the animals on which the dence from recent emerging infectious • vector-borne (spread to humans country relies for food, trade, or to main- diseases such as Ebola and Zika, the like- via a third-party species, e.g. a tain the ecosystem. lihood of this risk has increased since the mosquito); ‘Zoonotic diseases’, which spread

22 Ju l y 2019, Volume 22(5) fst journal www.foundation.org.uk PANDEMICS

Figure 1. Hazards, diseases, accidents and societal risks

Key 5 Natural hazards Diseases Coastal flooding Pandemic Influenza Emerging infectious River flooding disease 4 Surface water Animal disease flooding Major accidents Storms and gales 3 Widespread Cold and snow electricity failure

Impact severity Impact Heatwave Transport accidents 2 Drought Industrial and urban Space weather accidents Volcanic eruptions System failures 1 Poor air quality Societal risks Earthquakes Industrial action 1 2 3 4 5 Wildfires Public disorder Likelihood of occurring in the next five years

from animals to humans, include avian paredness Strategy covers strategic plan- tion of activities. influenza spread by migratory birds, ning, response and scientific evidence. Should an outbreak of disease occur, movements of live poultry, poultry meat Contingency plans exist for many emerg- the Government response strategy or contaminated vehicles/materials. ing infectious diseases. The World involves: Some strains can cause diseases in Health Organisation (WHO) collates • detection – specialist epidemiology humans. West Nile virus is spread by global influenza preparedness plans. and microbiology capabilities mosquitoes and via birds as intermedi- Government Departments, Devolved exist within the UK to identify, ate hosts. It can cause encephalitis or Administrations, public health agencies characterise and respond to meningitis in people (inflammations of and devolved NHS branches share plans infectious diseases; the brain/brain lining and spinal cord) and information. • antivirals – the Government although 80% of those infected show no The UK Government collaborates stockpiles enough antiviral symptoms at all. It has never reached the with others to undertake work on pre- medicines to help treat people UK. Rabies is spread by bites/scratches vention, detection and research. WHO showing symptoms during a flu from infected animals. It infects the ner- has an influenza programme which pro- pandemic. Antivirals can help treat vous system and is usually fatal once vides member states with strategic guid- flu symptoms but are not a cure; clinical signs appear. Rabies is present at ance, technical support and coordina- • vaccines – vaccines will be very low levels in some UK bat popula- developed as soon as possible once tions, but the risk to humans is very low. new flu strains are identified. This Animal diseases which cannot spread In 1918, a variant of the will take at least four to six months to humans are termed ‘non-zoonotic’ H1N1 strain (Spanish flu) after a pandemic begins; and include foot-and-mouth and swine killed over 50 million • personal protective equipment fever. These harm the UK by affecting – emergency responders have animals (particularly livestock) that people globally. However, personal protective equipment for agriculture or ecosystems rely on. other flu strains exist with severe pandemics and infectious pandemic potential, such diseases. There are also protocols Government action in place for infection control both The UK Government response to these as H5N1 (avian or bird flu). before and during an incident. ☐ risks takes a number of forms, including This strain caused several pre-event planning, coordination and 1. www.gov.uk/government/publications/ international collaboration. hundred human deaths in national-risk-register-of-civil-emergencies- The UK Influenza Pandemic Pre- South East Asia in 1996. 2017-edition fst journal www.foundation.org.uk Ju ly 2019, Volume 22(5) 23 TECHNOLOGY AND THE LAW On 20 June 2018, the Sir Brian Neill Memorial Debate considered the opportunities to be gained from greater use of digital technology in the legal system – a topic that had been close to Sir Brian’s heart. Employing technology to improve the delivery of justice Geoffrey Vos

he challenge of how the adoption of new technology can improve the efficiency of SUMMARY the justice system is one of huge impor- Ttance. If a few taps on a mobile phone can obtain • English law and UK dispute resolution are well- virtually anything within a day or so, it is surely placed to provide the legal foundation for not reasonable to expect to wait years for a just international business and property contracts involving new digital technologies outcome to a simple dispute. The Rt Hon Sir Geoffrey Vos A massive court and tribunal reform project is • A careful evaluation is needed as to when physical is Chancellor of the High already underway that will bring the biggest invest- courtroom settings are appropriate – and when a Court of England and Wales. ment to the court service for decades. An online digital process could be more effective He holds responsibility for solutions court is already undergoing full-scale • Issues of fact could often be decided online in the conduct of business in advance of a courtroom hearing the Business and Property testing for divorce and for small money claims. Courts. Prior to this role, he This will allow claims to be started and mediated • If court hearings were no longer to be the norm, was appointed a Lord Justice online, with physical hearings being reserved for ways must be found of ensuring appropriate of Appeal in 2013 and acted cases that cannot otherwise be resolved. public access to the digital judicial process as President of the European Network of Councils for the Since April 2017, online filing of all documents • The use of technology must not exclude the Judiciary from June 2014 has been compulsory in business and property vulnerable or the less wealthy. to June 2016. He was the courts. Orders are produced electronically and Chairman of the Chancery some hearings employ digital case management Bar Association from 1999 to 2001 and of the Bar systems. In a recent, very large Court of Appeal investment and a diversity of ideas as to how arti- Council in 2007. case (it lasted two weeks and 15 counsel appeared) ficial intelligence can be deployed to support law- each judge had three screens showing the docu- yers and other professionals. ments referred to, their own notes and any docu- Distributed ledger technology (DLT) has far ment the judge individually wanted to review. greater reach than many imagine. It is capable of There was also simultaneous transcription of the use in relation to smart contracts of course, finan- proceedings. I was one of those judges and con- cial transactions generally and in an almost ducted the whole case, including writing parts of unlimited number of other areas such as land and the judgment, without using any paper at all. intellectual property registers, utility billing, tele- coms and transactions in almost any field. The international context There are said to be some three trillion Finan- The UK faces competition from business courts cial Services transactions globally each year and across the world that are keen to attract commercial it is forecast that within five years most will be dispute resolution and arbitration. There are exist- DLT-based smart contracts. Any transaction on ing international commercial courts in Singapore, the block chain is, by definition, borderless which Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Qatar and new ones being set creates risks as well as opportunities. up in Brussels, Amsterdam, Paris, Frankfurt and English law and UK dispute resolution are well- Dublin, to name but a few. Most will be English lan- placed to provide the legal foundation for many of guage-based and will apply a common law approach. these contracts because in the UK the Prudential Regulation Authority and the Financial Conduct Any transaction on UK advantage Authority have adopted a very sensible ‘wait and the block chain is, by There are more FinTech, LawTech and RegTech see’ approach to regulation. If history is anything definition, borderless start-ups in the UK than in the whole of the rest of to go by, the EU’s approach to regulating FinTech which creates risks as Europe, but Paris, Berlin and Amsterdam are is likely to be more interventionist than the UK’s well as opportunities. catching up fast. There is a great deal of EU and our common law system is well-placed to

24 July 2019, Volume 22(5) fst journal www.foundation.org.uk TECHNOLOGY AND THE LAW respond to digital innovation in order to provide tion without costly court attendances by lawyers In some cases, time legal certainty in this brave new world. and parties – even evidence could be given in in the physical writing, online or remotely by Skype. courtroom is crucial, Accelerating take-up In some cases, time in the physical courtroom but there are many So that is the background. How can the adoption is crucial, but there are many cases where parts of cases where parts of of new technology be accelerated to improve the the trial process are simply costly and unneces- the trial process are efficiency of the justice system? My expertise lies sary. Why, for example, are written submissions simply costly and in the area of business law, where judges, arbitra- reiterated orally before and after oral evidence? unnecessary. tors and lawyers are learning the benefits of work- In many cases there are only a handful of sub- ing digitally. The justice system will be more rel- stantive, factual disputes and even those are often evant and effective if it provides a digital service born of misunderstanding or mistrust rather than to clients and court users who have long since substantive disagreement as to what actually reduced their reliance on paper. occurred. A good proportion of the factual dis- There needs to be a very careful evaluation of putes are quite irrelevant to the outcome and when physical hearings with a judge, the parties, could be avoided altogether if considered in their lawyers and witnesses are really needed – and greater detail at an earlier stage. If judges were when technology offers a more efficient option. more engaged online, asking questions, directing Lawyers and judges will need training, not to evidence, resolving cases stage by stage, they become computer code experts, but to under- could probably resolve the majority of even stand how disputes arise from transactions on the lengthy trials by an iterative, online process. blockchain for example. Basic legal training The legal system is too hidebound by proce- remains largely the same as when I started read- dural rules and long-established practices. ing law at university nearly 45 years ago! Courtroom hearings could be made more effi- Surely the objective should be to provide a cient and business-like if the judge were up to truly digital business justice system, delivering speed with the issues and the progress already speedy and dependable outcomes for hard- made online. That would bring into better focus pressed commercial parties at a proportionate the issues still dividing the parties. cost. It seems obvious to me that claims in such a system must be started and conducted online. Ensuring access There is no reason why participants could not I would add two important concerns regarding log on within a time window, make submissions online justice. Simultaneous transcription ser- online and respond to questions by the judge vices and the case management systems that allow online. In this way, everyone’s voice can be heard for paperless trials and appeals are expensive and without spending large sums flying witnesses into at the moment are paid for by the parties. It is London or elsewhere from far away. Some of the important to ensure that digital processes are biggest global law firms already ban staff from available to business litigants in the smallest as international travel, requiring them instead to well as the biggest cases. conduct overseas business meetings by Skype, The core principles of our justice system must Facetime or Telepresence: a Telepresence meeting also be respected – the most obvious being open is almost identical to a physical meeting. justice and access to justice. If court hearings A combination of these mechanisms can be were no longer the norm, ways would have to be applied to dispute resolution. In the case of, say, found of ensuring appropriate public access to the an application for a freezing order to prevent a digital judicial process. Under no circumstances defendant from putting assets out of reach, the can justice be delivered behind closed doors. claim is already lodged online in the business and Moreover, while access to justice is generally property courts. The relief could also be granted enhanced by smart procedures, the use of tech- online. The judge could consider the material nology must not exclude the vulnerable or the less filed online, ask questions, receive the answers wealthy. All that said, I think our business and and make the appropriate order. The record property courts are doing well in terms of opera- would show what the court had been told and tional efficiency and providing state-of-the-art once the defendant was informed of the order litigation processes. We need to continue to think If court hearings were they could apply to set aside the injunction by imaginatively about our civil procedures in the no longer the norm, exactly the same process. Even cases involving context of both Brexit and the digital revolution. ways would have to multiple parties and witnesses could be resolved The UK is well-placed to deliver justice in a be found of ensuring wholly or partially in a similar way. world-leading way, but to do that we will need to appropriate public Preliminary issues could be resolved by online invest in reform and be ready to take the opportu- access to the digital questions and answers and a judicial determina- nities offered by LawTech. ☐ judicial process. fst journal www.foundation.org.uk Ju ly 2019, Volume 22(5) 25 TECHNOLOGY AND THE LAW Adopting new technology for a modern justice system Susan Acland-Hood

uch of the work of the Courts and Tri- bunal Service reflects the fact that, SUMMARY although the principles which under- pinM our justice systems are enduring, our process- • Reform of the justice system is about putting es do not need to be as old as our principles. power into the hands of users The justice system exists to defend our funda- • Best practice from around the world is being mental rights and freedoms. It empowers us to do combined to transform the English justice system Susan Acland-Hood is all the things we do in life. It allows us to enforce • Whatever is built must be capable of change, Chief Executive, HM Courts our rights against anyone, but in practice it still iteration and development and Tribunals Service. She empowers big, strong and capable actors more • One beauty of a digital system is that it can was previously Director of than smaller, weaker and less-informed ones. quickly highlight where further adjustments Enterprise and Growth at need to be made HM Treasury, responsible Change is not just about replacing analogue for policies on productivity, processes with digital ones, but needs to ensure • Our work is rigorously tested with real users. growth, business, there is no unnecessary complexity in the system infrastructure, exports, and that it is accessible. It is concerned with put- competition and markets, and for energy and transport ting power into the hands of those who use the tor, sitting alone, determines these very low-level spending. She has also system and enabling them to navigate it much cases – typically speeding offences or failure to buy worked extensively on home more readily. That matters because when people a ticket on the underground. The first use of this has affairs and justice policy, with a good case do not come to the law, they suf- been on Transport for London cases and we put both at Number 10 and in the Home Office. She has fer themselves but so too does society because it about 350 TfL cases through this system a week. also had senior roles in the becomes less risky to rip-off the ordinary citizen. The magistrate, sitting with a legal adviser, looks at London Borough of Tower We often refer to the need to design for 2050 all the evidence in the case. They are able to see the Hamlets, and in the Social and not 2018. We do not have a crystal ball that plea that someone has made or see what has been Exclusion Unit. shows us what the legal system will look like at sent to the person. They then make a decision that date, but whatever is built must be capable of which is kept as part of the system of record. change, iteration and development. We have the beginnings of a ‘common plat- Our £1 billion programme is ambitious but it form’. This brings together the police, the Crown needs to be. We are aiming to take elements of Prosecution Service (CPS) and the Courts Service systems in use elsewhere in the world but in a way in a single, end-to-end system which removes the that gives extra benefit by bringing them together need for people to transfer records between differ- into one place. This will be built in small, sharable, ent networks, whether on paper or by re-keying. agile parts, so that it can be adjusted in response to Trials, on a small scale, are underway in Liver- feedback but also, by building small and testing pool. The police send in material and the CPS with real people, the final result is better. then decides whether or not to charge a suspect. The evidence uploaded by the police appears on Crime the CPS screens. The defence can access the initial The starting point is to determine the processes details of the prosecution case much earlier than we want to see in a criminal system and how these at present because as soon as the decision to pros- can be underpinned with good quality technolo- ecute is made, this is in turn made available to gy. One already completed project allows indi- them. The same system is used to bring material viduals to enter a plea for a minor offence online. into the Crown Court case. It is used to allocate One project allows This adds a new route to a system in which a letter hearing time and then the Crown Court Clerk can individuals to enter a is sent: people are slightly more likely to respond log everything that happens during the hearing. plea for a minor online than to a letter. The new method is rela- This is also integrated with our recording system. offence online. tively quick and easy to use. There has been a People are slightly good take-up and some good user feedback. Families more likely to respond The online pleas are brought together into ‘auto- Submissions using the existing, 15-page paper online than to a letter. mated track case management’. A single adjudica- divorce form had a rejection rate of about 40%, so

26 Ju l y 2019, Volume 22(5) fst journal www.foundation.org.uk TECHNOLOGY AND THE LAW about 4-in-10 applications were sent back because online. They are getting quicker answers from the In the field of social people had completed them incorrectly. Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) and security and child In designing the new online system, the this tool allows them to track their appeal. The support, asking emphasis was on making sure the questions were use of SMS messaging is a really important meth- people to come to a simple to answer and we tested that with real peo- od of communicating with large numbers of peo- physical hearing can ple in July 2017. The error rate had reduced to 8% ple, because the vast majority of people – even be difficult and by September. One beauty of a digital system, of those who do not have or use email – have an challenging. course, is that it can highlight where people are SMS-enabled phone and know how to use it. Individuals could going wrong and indicate where further adjust- One area that is still at an early stage is a pro- submit their answers ments need to be made. The error rate was down cess that will allow judges to ask questions of peo- by audio recording or to 5% by Christmas. ple online in order to resolve cases without nec- by video. Some of the remaining errors seem to be con- essarily requiring a physical hearing. In the field nected with printing and posting the form and a of social security and child support, it is rec- marriage certificate. So just after Christmas 2017 ognised that asking people to come to a physical a new service, enabling people to take a picture of hearing is difficult and challenging for many. their marriage certificate on their phone and This method will also allow individuals to submit upload it, was introduced. There was an immedi- their answers by audio recording or by video. It ate 90% success rate and that is increasing all the is not necessary to be able to write a stream of time. The overall error rate is now below 1%. continuous text in order to tell the tribunal what It is available to any individuals who want to it wants to know. get divorced in England and Wales (a lawyer’s ver- Over the coming months, there will be testing sion is in development). This is a really good illus- of full video hearings: in the tax tribunal, for tration of how to make something cheaper for example, people are already being invited to have everyone, but also better at the same time. their cases heard by video. We have had no diffi- Something very similar is being developed for culty in finding people who want to have their probate. Once again we have had extremely pos- case dealt with in this way. A judge has been sit- itive user feedback for the beta version, some that ting in one of the tribunal buildings in London, has been genuinely quite moving. the appellant has been at home using their own A project is planned on public family law equipment and the HMRC presenting officer has which will allow us to take information digitally been in the Belfast office. from local authorities. It will also permit the pro- In developing solutions for different parts of duction of orders during the hearing so that peo- the justice system, we are very mindful of the ple can see them at the time. This approach will common components which need to exist across be extended to adoption and private family law. the whole infrastructure as well as bespoke parts that need to be in particular places only. The Civil intention is to bring those together over time into Available to everyone is an online system that an online court system. allows small money claims to be made online and also allows defendants to respond. The rate of Evaluating our efforts defence of claims is higher than under the old sys- We are very serious about evaluation. Our work tem and we are looking to see whether there are is rigorously tested with real users, something larger numbers of claims for small amounts. That I believe is crucial to success. We are also devel- would support the theory that there may well be oping plans for programme-wide evaluation people who have good claims but do not bring with the Ministry of Justice, as well as a dedi­ them to court, particularly for small amounts, cated strand of work on management infor­ because they fear that the process will be too com- mation and data. plex and it will not be worth it. We believe that our approach can create This method encourages people to resolve dis- opportunities way beyond the walls of HM There may well be putes before going through the system: it offers Courts and Tribunals Service. So we are looking people who have mediation and other means to resolve disputes at ways to allow others to design bits of LawTech good claims but do out of court, so a respondent can make an offer that can then interface with us. There are things not bring them to without admitting liability and the parties can the state does well, but there will be other things court, particularly for negotiate a resolution. where an app developer designs something that is small amounts, far better for particular, specific uses. If those because they fear Tribunals apps can link seamlessly into our system and that the process will Starting with social security and child support allow people to feed cases in, then a whole new be too complex and it tribunals, people can now submit their appeals world starts to open up. ☐ will not be worth it. fst journal www.foundation.org.uk Ju ly 2019, Volume 22(5) 27 TECHNOLOGY AND THE LAW Upgrading the justice system Richard Susskind

first addressed the Foundation for Science and Technology on the topic of technology in SUMMARY the courts in 1991. I was Chairman of the ISociety for Computers and Law and Sir Brian • The next 20 years will see greater change in the Neill was President. Some 20 years later, the mod- English justice system than the previous two ernisation of the court system and the widespread centuries introduction of technology is the subject of a joint • The current system of dispute resolution is too costly and too slow Professor Richard Susskind initiative by the Government and the judiciary. OBE FRSE is President of the We have a combination of great people in HM • Online courts are not intended to be a full Society for Computers and Courts and Tribunals Service, a very supportive replacement for the physical courtroom Law, Chair of the Advisory judiciary and funding from The Treasury. Our • Online solutions are designed to be affordable, Board of the Oxford Internet quick, intelligible and proportionate Institute, and Strategy stars are currently aligned. & Technology Adviser to Three factors in particular will bring greater • The goal is to increase access to justice and in so the Lord Chief Justice of change in the coming 20 years than has been seen doing promote the rule of law. England and Wales. He in the past two centuries in the way lawyers work. chaired the Online Dispute Resolution Advisory Group The first is the ‘more for less’ challenge – how of the Civil Justice Council to reduce the cost of legal services. This is an issue A third phase, the ‘disruptive phase’ will hap- whose proposals on online for everyone, from major organisations with legal pen as a variety of technologies (some of which courts have been adopted teams of more than 1,000 people down to the are already bubbling up) replace some of the ways as judicial and Government policy. He is a Fellow of the individual citizen. that legal service is delivered. Royal Society of Edinburgh Second, there are now new providers coming and of the British Computer into the marketplace. In England, the legal sys- The advance of technology Society. An Honorary tem has been liberalised to the extent it is now In 1996, just over 20 years ago, I wrote a book enti- Bencher at Gray’s Inn, he was awarded an OBE in 2000. possible for non-lawyers to participate in deliv- tled The Future of Law. In it I suggested that the ering legal services. Some of these new entrants, dominant way that lawyers and clients would such as the ‘Big 4’ accounting firms, are of a dif- communicate in the future would be by email. ferent order of magnitude from conventional The Law Society of England and Wales claimed at legal businesses and are looking seriously at how the time that I was bringing the legal profession to deliver legal services. into disrepute by saying email would be used Third, of course, is technology. between lawyers and clients! So much has already changed but there is still a long way to go. The process of change The underpinning technologies are growing at The legal world is going through three phases of an exponential, explosive rate. Our systems are change. The first, which I think ended in about becoming increasingly capable. It is hard to pick 2016, was that of denial. Denial by people who felt up the Financial Times or The Economist, or that somehow the legal world was immune from indeed any daily paper, and not read a story about any change. Very few senior individuals believe a new app, breakthrough, or technological devel- this any more. opment. Our systems are becoming increasingly We are going through a second phase just now, pervasive and I do not just mean our handhelds which I reckon will last until the early 2020s, and our tablets, but other developments like the where the solution to the ‘more for less’ challenge Internet of Things. is to use lower-cost labour, for example, by out- In 2005, a good memory card might have sourcing, offshoring and using paralegals– taking offered 128MB of storage: fast-forward less than the cost out, not with technology but by using 10 years to 2014 and that figure was 128GB – a people who cost less. thousand-fold increase in less than 10 years. That explosive growth is happening not just in memory cards, but in processing power, in hard The underpinning technologies are growing at an disk capacity, in the number of internet users, number of websites, bandwidth and so on. This exponential, explosive rate. Our systems are is underpinning an increasing capability of our becoming increasingly capable. systems, particularly in the areas of machine

28 Ju l y 2019, Volume 22(5) fst journal www.foundation.org.uk TECHNOLOGY AND THE LAW learning and big data. In that context, in the most 90% were resolved with a combination of media- Do we really need document-intensive and information-intensive tion and conciliation. Of the remaining 10%, only physically to sector of all – the legal world – can we honestly 20 of the hearings were actually face-to-face assemble on all imagine that we are somehow immune from engagements. occasions to resolve change? That seems to me entirely improbable. Allen & Overy and Deloitte have developed a our differences? Is system, publicly reported, to help investment ‘court’ a service or A service or a place? banks comply with new developments in deriva- a place? The fundamental question seems to me to be tives regulations, internationally. This is one whether we really need physically to assemble on of the best case studies of legal technology we all occasions to resolve our differences? Is ‘court’ have ever had. It generated fees of tens of millions a service or a place? of dollars and has transformed the way major There are clear problems with the justice sys- investment banks actually comply with the tem in its current form. When I was invited by the new regulations. Civil Justice Council in 2014 to look into the pos- In litigation, a 2011 article confirmed that sibility of online dispute resolution, our group where there is a huge body of documents to identified very quickly that for low-value claims review in a case, online systems can out-perform in particular, the current system is too costly and junior lawyers and paralegals. These reviews use too slow, it is unintelligible for non-lawyers and it established technologies. is too combative – it somehow feels out of step in A 19-year-old developed a ‘Robot Lawyer’. It a modern digital society. provides a guide on how legitimately to challenge A quotation from Sir Brian Neill comes to – and so avoid paying – parking tickets. mind: “You do not need a Rolls Royce to haul a In Uganda, a very impressive young man has water cart.” I just think it is such a wonderful brought together a team to help people who have image and very appropriate in this context. Lord no access to justice but do have mobile phones. Dyson also put it very well when he said: “Any The team uses this technology to deliver legal system that has a 2,000-page user guide has a help and guidance, explaining to people what problem.” He was referring to the Civil Justice their entitlements are and helping them enforce system and the Civil Procedure Rules. those entitlements. Online courts are not a complete alternative to Lex Machina is a system developed by Stan- the courtroom. For suitable cases (and not all ford University. One claim made for it is that it cases are suitable), they offer a state-provided dis- can predict the outcome of patent disputes much pute resolution service where parties do not need more accurately than any human lawyer. The to congregate physically. Judges can receive evi- interesting thing is that the system knows nothing dence and arguments electronically and they can about the law. But it does have information on up communicate the decisions electronically. to 200,000 patent cases – who the judge was, This is new approach and will need to be sup- which courtroom it was in, which law firm was ported by a highly-simplified set of procedures involved, which lawyer was involved, the name of and rules. It is not a case of grafting the technolo- the litigant, the subject matter, the value of the gy onto the old system, but of re-thinking the claim. With enough objective data about cases, it rules and simplifying them so that the whole pro- can make a more accurate statistical prediction of cess is far more focussed on the genuine needs of the outcome of a case than by using the legal the users. The aim, therefore, is for a system that method. Now that is really challenging. is affordable, quick, intelligible and proportionate – in short, greater access to justice at lower cost. New systems and approaches One central question every client will ask is ‘what In practice are our chances of winning?’ That is not a straight- If it is demonstrable There are significant challenges to overcome. forward legal question, but a request for probabil- that new technologies Judges without courtrooms. Justice without law- ity. If it is demonstrable that new technologies can can deliver a more yers. Naturally some in the legal establishment are deliver a more accurate response than the legal accurate response apprehensive about this. Yet there are many exam- method, then the market will opt for that. We are than the legal ples of this working well. Every year on eBay there living in very interesting times where systems are method, then the are 60 million disputes among traders. Almost out-performing human experts. market will opt for none of them is sorted out by courts and lawyers; What does this mean for legal education? that. We are living in they are resolved by online dispute resolution. The question is really: ‘What are we training very interesting times Take the Financial Ombudsmen Service: in young lawyers to become?’ My worry is that where systems are 2014 it dealt with around half a million disputes they are being trained to become 20th century out-performing between citizens and financial institutions. Some lawyers. In many law schools the subject is still human experts. fst journal www.foundation.org.uk Ju ly 2019, Volume 22(5) 29 TECHNOLOGY AND THE LAW

At the end of a talk I taught as it was in the 1970s, both what is taught their doctorates in AI and Law. I do not know of gave in China last and how it is taught. anyone who is doing a doctorate in AI and Law in year, six individuals What does a 21st century lawyer look like? England. If we really take legal technology seri- came up to me and They may not look like the lawyers that we were ously, we have to create within our law schools an told me about their taught to be in law school in the 1970s. The environment in which young students are doctorates in AI and important thing is they will deliver the outcome exposed to the possibilities of the future. Law. I do not know of the client wants, i.e. solutions to their problems. I Any profession runs the risk of becoming pre- anyone who is doing visit the USA regularly and there are now around occupied with its traditional working methods a doctorate in AI and 20 institutes or centres in law schools that are and processes rather than the outcomes that are Law in England. looking at the future of legal services, examining expected of it. In fact, in the end people do not the impact of legal technology and committing really want courts and lawyers – they want the serious numbers of staff and investment. outcomes that courts and lawyers bring. The There are some similar initiatives in Scotland challenge is to upgrade our justice system, har- and Wales, but England is lamentably behind. It ness the power of existing and emerging technol- is ironic: English law firms are ahead in LegalTech, ogies, and so modernise our legal profession, but the law schools are behind. court system and law schools. At the end of a talk I gave in China last year, six Fundamentally, the goal is to increase access to individuals came up to me. They told me about justice and in so doing promote the rule of law. ☐ The debate In the debate arly adopters of online systems in medicine lawyers in the future be different? One shortcom- following had difficulties convincing patients that ing of artificial intelligence is that it may not provide the formal these systems could maintain confidential- reasons for judgements; convincing participants presentations, Eity. The legal profession may encounter similar that their case had been handled reasonably may issues such as issues. This may be more of a problem for older require a human judge setting out reasons. AI confidentiality, the generations than younger ones. might therefore be used more extensively in com- use of machine Digital systems are at risk of being hacked, not mercial rather than family proceedings. Machine learning, equity only by tech-savvy litigants but also by some for- learning relies on surveying past judgements and it and mercy, and eign powers. The Ministry of Justice needs to use may not therefore initiate innovation in case law. the balance next-generation monitoring technology. Of The prospect that digitisation may lead to of priorities course, much of the justice system is intended to be quicker resolution will be welcomed in insurance, were raised. transparent and publicly available. However, when where justice and positive outcomes for individu- IT systems were introduced for sensitive cases in als would be much assisted by a more rapid pro- social work, some social workers were found to be cess. In smaller civil claims the introduction of browsing case files with which they had no involve- online settlement could make resolution much ment, an issue that could occur in legal circles too. more readily available. Could machine learning reduce the number of The delivery of justice may involve a technically lawyers needed, or would the skills sets required for correct solution which tempers equity with mercy, and this may be beyond machines. In larger civil cases, the involvement of the judge in determining FURTHER INFORMATION the relative strength of argument of expert witness- es will remain important. Recent greater awareness Sir Brian Neill - A Tribute Richard Susskind, the SCL President, offers his of unconscious bias needs to be taken seriously. tribute to the Rt Hon Sir Brian Neill PC, a former President of SCL Although some disabled people, such as the www.scl.org/articles/10149-sir-brian-neill-a-tribute deaf, may prefer online processes, personal judicial input will be required for sentencing decisions Ministry of Justice and HM Courts & Tribunals Service: New legislation will which involve discretion, as well as in family cases modernise the courts involving children. www.gov.uk/government/news/new-legislation-will-modernise-the-courts The goal of the criminal courts is to protect the rights of society, whereas the civil courts are prin- The Judicial System of England and Wales: a visitor’s guide www.judiciary. cipally concerned with achieving fairness for the uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/international-visitors-guide-12.pdf parties in a dispute. In both, the right balance has to be struck between speed, cost and justice. ☐

30 Ju l y 2019, Volume 22(5) fst journal www.foundation.org.uk RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT On 18 July 2018, more than 30 experts drawn from academia, business and government gathered at The British Academy to discuss how to nurture international research and development partnerships in a post‑Brexit world. Representatives of NASA and the US National Science Foundation were among those participating. Looking to the future

ir Norman Lamb, Chair of the House of Commons Select Com- mittee on Science and Technology, Sreferred to a 2016 Royal Society Fact- sheet, which recorded that more than - 119 Shuttle Crew/NASA STS 50% of research outputs were the result of international collaboration, the most frequent partner countries being the USA (12%), Germany (7%), France (4%) and Italy (4%). The March 2018 Science and Tech- nology Committee report Brexit, Science and Innovation1 had a number of insights into the challenges facing the UK. First, there are the effects on all areas of research due to the continued uncertain- ty. Although there is cross-party support for continued research collaboration and inclusion in EU Research Programmes, this could not be achieved regardless of More than 90% of ence programmes like the James Webb price. Second, the UK must maintain Telescope and potential missions to regulatory alignment with the EU. Third, infant foods contain Europa or Enceladus will continue to it is critical that visas and permits are supplements developed provide new science, the public may feel available at all levels, enabling the work- originally for astronauts. the impacts of the space programme first ers the UK needs to come here, together through developments in technologies with their families and dependents. like in-situ manufacturing and 3D print- ronment of spaceflight pushes the limits ing, advanced propulsion and power and Immigration debate of all our sciences and technologies, even quantum computing. Potentially the This latter point is the topic of a further unexpected ones. For instance, more most impactful is Artificial Intelligence Committee report, An Immigration than 90% of infant foods contain supple- which promises to revolutionise almost ­System that works for Science and Innova- ments developed originally for astro- every aspect of business and culture. tion2. The report highlights the need for nauts in microgravity environments. Dr Terrier concluded by noting that a system that facilitates short and long The focus of future space programmes all these technological developments term stays in the UK, enables further is collaboration and indeed the recent will change our lives and jobs (as they travel outside the UK for research pur- White House Space Policy Directive #1 have done in the past), but that what we poses and features an efficient, stream- calls for NASA to “lead an innovative and have learned from the past 60 years of the lined and low-cost application process sustainable program of exploration with space programme is that there is no stat- for employers and employees. commercial and international partners to ic model that will ensure success. How- Dr Douglas Terrier, NASA Acting enable human expansion across the solar ever, for those who adapt and collabo- Chief Technologist, reflected on the suc- system and to bring back to Earth new rate, the opportunities are boundless. ☐ cess of the US space programme. From knowledge and opportunities”. starting as a ‘space race’ it had evolved He noted the increasingly successful 1. www.publications.parliament. into an international space collaboration commercialisation of low Earth orbit, uk/pa/cm201719/cmselect/ culminating in the building of the Inter- with companies like Blue Origin, cmsctech/705/705.pdf national Space Station and visits to all Space-X, Bigelow and Virgin Galactic 2. https://publications.parliament. planets of the solar system. starting independent space operations uk/pa/cm201719/cmselect/ He argued that the challenging envi- in the very near future. While major sci- cmsctech/1061/1061.pdf fst journal www.foundation.org.uk July 2019, Volume 22(5) 31 CIVIL SOCIETY The Foundation’s annual luncheon for Learned and Professional Societies was held on 28 September 2018 at the Honourable Society of Gray’s Inn in London. A vision for the next decade ddressing the audience, Ben Harrison MBE, Policy Manager at the Office of Civil Society, ADCMS, spoke about the Government’s Civil Society Strategy. He noted that the country faces a number of long-term societal challenges. These include a growing and ageing population which is putting new demands on the NHS and social care services. There are major envi- ronmental challenges which must be addressed for the sake of future genera- tions. The housing shortage needs new and bold solutions. The pace of change of technology is disrupting and changing the way we work, consume media, com- municate and do business in the UK.

Societal challenge Long-term societal challenges include a growing and ageing population, major Government alone cannot respond to all environmental challenges, housing shortage and disruptive technological change the challenges or seize all the opportuni- ties. Big societal challenges are being Rather than have public servants work- The strengthening of safeguarding prac- tackled through solutions that bring ing in silos accountable only to Whitehall, tices in charities can help to grow public together public services, private sector this alternative approach encourages peo- trust in the sector. businesses, and communities in collabo- ple to work together with local communi- The business community has a role in rative effort. That is what the Civil Society ties in order to collaboratively design ser- mainstreaming the delivery of social Strategy1, published in August 2018, is vices and pool budgets. Key to successful value across the private sector, tackling focussed upon. It should be viewed as a place-based work is the empowerment of financial exclusion and supporting initia- companion to the Industrial Strategy. It local people to take their part in the deci- tives such as the responsible business is based around support for thriving sions that affect them. This means, for Leadership Group. communities which require trust, con- example, devolving more power to com- nectedness and goodwill to flourish. munity groups and parish councils, and The public sector Greater local control, through services including them in service delivery and The Strategy proposes that the public which were co-designed with local com- local decision-making. sector develop more collaborative com- munities, is important. In addition, The future Shared Prosperity Fund missioning, involving local groups on younger people need to be better will help tackle inequalities between com- order to engage all the community. involved in local decisions. munities and raise productivity, through Learned and Professional Societies the adoption of an inclusive growth have a key role in promoting education and The power of place model. New models of finance will play debate about how to increase trust and The Government wants to encourage a an increasingly important role including confidence in decision making; and they more collaborative place-based approach. crowdfunding for public infrastructure, constitute a major source of expertise and By working with public service providers boosting social impact investment and knowledge. They should continue to take and the private sector, as well as individu- developing new models of investment in the time to engage with Government, als and communities, in particular places, local communities, funded by money including on more effective ways to engage policy can be developed that is both more from dormant accounts. youth in these issues. ☐ sensitive and appropriate. It will then The social sector should have more achieve better social and economic out- effective involvement in the policy pro- 1. www.gov.uk/government/publications/ comes and result in better places for peo- cess, with the digital revolution providing civil-society-strategy-building-a-future- ple to live and work in. the means to connect more effectively. that-works-for-everyone

32 July 2019, Volume 22(5) fst journal www.foundation.org.uk MAJOR SUPPORTERS IN 2018/2019

A Institute of Biomedical Science S Airbus Institute of Food Science and Technology Science and Technology Facilities Council Arts and Humanities Research Council Institute of Materials, Minerals & Mining Shell International Limited Association for Innovation, Research and Institute of Mathematics and its Society for Applied Microbiology Technology Organisations (AIRTO) Applications Society for Editors and Proofreaders AstraZeneca Institute of Measurement and Control AXA XL Society of Maritime Industries Institute of Physics Society of Operations Engineers B Institute of Quarrying Sovcomflot (UK) Ltd BAE Systems Institution of Chemical Engineers SPTS Technologies Ltd Babcock International Group Institution of Engineering and Technology Biochemical Society STEM Learning J Biotechnology and Biological Sciences T JISC Research Council The Academy of Medical Sciences BP International Ltd Johnson Matthey Plc The Alan Turing Institute BPE Solicitors LLP JSPS The Foundation for Professionals in BRE Group K Services for Adolescents British Academy King’s College London The Geological Society British Geological Society Kingston Smith The Haskel Family Foundation Brunel University London Knowledge Transfer Network Limited BSI Group The IET L C The Lady Butterworth Lloyds of London Canterbury Christ Church University The Medical Schools Council London Mathematical Society Chartered Association of Building The Royal Academy of Engineering Luminance Technologies Ltd Engineers The Royal Commission for the Exhibition of Chartered Institute of Credit Management M 1851 Chartered Institute of Linguists McLaren Technology Group Ltd The Royal Society Chartered Institute of Plumbing and Medical Research Council The Wellcome Trust Heating Engineering Met Office Comino Foundation U N Cranfield University UK Innovation & Science Seedfund National Physical Laboratory D Natural Environment Research Council UK Research and Innovation Defence Science and Technology Natural History Museum UK Statistics Authority Laboratory Network Rail University Alliance Department for Environment, Food and University College London Rural Affairs Nottingham Trent University University of Birmingham Department of Health and Social Care Nutrition Society University of Chichester E O University of Dundee Economic and Social Research Council Open University University of East Anglia EEF (Make UK) P University of Edinburgh EIB Institute Palaeontological Association University of Glasgow Elsevier b.v. Parliamentary and Scientific Committee University of Hull Engineering and Physical Sciences Peter Jost Charitable Foundation Research Council Publishers Licensing Society University of Kent ERA Foundation University of Leeds Q G University of Leicester Queen's University Belfast Genomics England University of Nottingham GO Science R University of Plymouth H Recruitment and Employment University of Reading Heads of University Centres of Biomedical Confederation University of Sheffield Research England Science (HUCBMS) University of Southampton Health and Safety Executive Rolls-Royce University of Warwick High Value Manufacturing Catapult Royal Entomological Society University of Westminster I Royal Geographical Society (with the IBG) University of York IBM (UK) Limited Royal Society of Biology Imperial College London Royal Society of Chemistry W Innovate UK Royal Society of Medicine Willis Towers Watson

The Foundation is grateful to these companies, departments, research bodies and charities for their significant support for the debate programme. The Journal of The Foundation for Science and Technology

The Foundation for Science and Technology 10 Carlton House Terrace London SW1Y 5AH

Telephone: 020 7321 2220 Email: [email protected]

www.foundation.org.uk